Subscribe to RSS feeds Bulkowski Blog via RSS

Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

Support this site! Clicking the links (below) takes you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING, they pay for the referral.

Picture of the head's law.
Kindle
Paperback
Chart Patterns: After the Buy
Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition book.
Trading Basics: Evolution of a Trader book.
Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Swing and Day Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Visual Guide to Chart Patterns book.
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book.
Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
Class Elliott Wave Fundamentals Psychology Quiz Research Setups Software Tutorials More...
Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 01/13/2017
19,886 -5.27 0.0%
9,202 57.87 0.6%
657 -0.99 -0.2%
5,574 26.63 0.5%
2,275 4.20 0.2%
YTD
0.6%
1.8%
-0.4%
3.5%
1.6%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 12/30/2016
19,250 or 20,250 by 01/15/2017
8,880 or 9,550 by 01/15/2017
625 or 690 by 01/15/2017
5,650 or 5,400 by 01/15/2017
2,350 or 2,240 by 01/15/2017
Indus strength: None YTD
Mutt Losers: None YTD
Mutt Winners: None YTD

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

November 2016 Headlines


Archives


Wednesday 11/30/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Notice how the blue line, the chart pattern indicator, has plummeted in the last several days but ticked upward on Tuesday.

I'm not sure what to make of this. The Dow futures are up as I write this before the market opens, so maybe the bearish indications I see in the chart are just my imagination.

But it looks as if the index is rounding over and heading lower, following the indicator down.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 19% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 18%.
The fewest was 17% on 11/25/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 522 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 12%.
The peak was 11% on 11/25/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The red line shows weakness, too, joining the CPI. The blue line, however, shows no net change from a week ago.

If you look closely at the chart, you can see that both lines have turned lower in the last day or so. This could be another indication of the start of a downward retrace.

Of it could be a pause where stocks go horizontal for a time, gathering strength for another push upward. It's hard to tell if this foretells weakness or just a pause.

If I had to guess, I'd say this shows weakness and we'll see the indices drop over the next week or two.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 11/29/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.3% or -54.24 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1012 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 479 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 533 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 127/213 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/63 or 50.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I suspect that the long bullish party is over...but maybe not.

The chart pattern indicator has plunged today (Monday), which is not good. That decline was expected but only "when" the drop would occur was in question. Of course, the market could reverse and the CPI would rebound.

Anyway, I show the Dow breaking the red up trendline that has lasted several days.

The measure rule for trendlines says that the height of the peak at A to the trendline (the green bar hides the peak) should be equivalent to the decline after a downward breakout. I show that potential drop at B by another green line.

The index has to drop more to meet the target, so we'll have to see if the index will continue lower on Tuesday. The above probabilities suggest it will close lower.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,442.62    
 Monthly S1  18,270.26  827.64   
 Monthly Pivot  18,711.20  440.94   
 Weekly S2  18,775.34  64.14   
 Weekly S1  18,936.62  161.28   
 Daily S2  19,036.49  99.87   
 Weekly Pivot  19,044.38  7.89   
 Daily S1  19,067.19  22.81   
 Low  19,072.25  5.06   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  19,097.64  25.39   
 Close  19,097.90  0.26   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  19,102.96  5.06   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  19,105.48  2.53   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  19,113.33  7.84   
 Open  19,122.14  8.81   
 Daily R1  19,133.66  11.52   
 High  19,138.72  5.06   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  19,169.43  30.71   
 Weekly R1  19,205.66  36.23   
 Weekly R2  19,313.42  107.76   
 Monthly R1  19,538.84  225.42   
 Monthly R2  19,979.78  440.94   

Monday 11/28/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

The utility index was the best performing index for most of the year until recently. Now, the transports have taken over with a 20.4% gain as I write this. The utility index comes in second with a gain of 10.8%, ahead of the Dow industrials (9.9%) and S&P (8.8%) with the Nasdaq holding up the rear with a gain year-to-date of 7.8%.

Let's look at the chart.

The index topped out in early July and has been sliding since. Why? My guess is because of the expected rise in interest rates. Utility companies have massive debt and low interest rates help them with their finances.

The index has bounced off the bottom of the channel, suggesting a short-term uptrend is underway. That rise might collapse when the FED raises rates.

It's also possible that the index will soar then. Why? Because the news will be out and fears of the unknown will subside. Up or down, which view is right? Take your pick.

$ $ $

Here's a thought. Imagine what would happen if President Trump were to cut capital gains tax rates to 0. Or even cut long-term cap gains rate to zero. Wow. The market would likely plunge. Why? Because everyone including me, would dump their stocks, capturing the tax-free gains.

$ $ $

I told my TV to scan the airwaves for channels and it found 87 in my area. That means I can tune, for free, 87 channels. Those of you wondering how to cut your living expenses, try cutting the cable cord and getting your TV from the aerial like I do.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 88.76 points.
Tuesday: Up 67.18 points.
Wednesday: Up 59.31 points.
Friday: Up 68.96 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 284.21 points or 1.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 77.41 points or 1.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 31.4502 points or 1.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.0% down from the high of 19,152.14 on 11/25/2016.
     24.0% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     0.0% down from the high of 5,398.92 on 11/25/2016.
     28.2% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     0.0% down from the high of 2,213.35 on 11/25/2016.
     22.3% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

Top

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 11/25/2016, the CPI had:

0 bearish patterns,
44 bullish patterns,
541 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 100.0%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  19,074  19,113  19,133  19,172  19,191 
Weekly  18,793  18,973  19,062  19,242  19,332 
Monthly  17,461  18,306  18,729  19,575  19,998 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,204  2,209  2,211  2,216  2,218 
Weekly  2,177  2,195  2,204  2,222  2,231 
Monthly  2,041  2,127  2,170  2,257  2,300 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,373  5,386  5,392  5,405  5,412 
Weekly  5,313  5,356  5,377  5,421  5,442 
Monthly  4,913  5,156  5,277  5,520  5,642 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks up 21.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 52.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks up 21.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 53.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks up 25.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 46.9%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
24Pipe bottom
12Head-and-shoulders bottom
9Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
7Triangle, symmetrical
6Broadening bottom
6Triangle, descending
5Dead-cat bounce
4Double Top, Adam and Adam
3Head-and-shoulders top
3Double Bottom, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor
2. Insurance (Life)2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Securities Brokerage3. Securities Brokerage
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Insurance (Life)
5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
50. Chemical (Diversified)50. Chemical (Diversified)
51. Electric Utility (West)51. Advertising
52. Electric Utility (Central)52. Electric Utility (Central)
53. Biotechnology53. Electric Utility (West)
54. Toiletries/Cosmetics54. Toiletries/Cosmetics
55. Electric Utility (East)55. Electric Utility (East)
56. Household Products56. Household Products
57. Short ETFs57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Thursday 11/24/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -5.67 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 555 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 304 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 251 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 117/202 or 57.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/78 or 51.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart shows a channel bounding price that's moving higher. I show that at A, surrounded by two parallel red lines.

The index spent most of the day clawing its way back to the prior day's close. Sadly to say, it didn't make it.

There's not much you can say about channels except two things: 1) Some person flamed at me for not including the pattern in the first version of my Encyclopedia of chart patterns book. He went on to state that the book was worthless because of it. Yeah, that pissed me off. It taught me not to read Amazon.com customer reviews of my work. And 2) the index will breakout in whatever direction it likes, whenever it likes.

Research says that Friday we'll close down, probably in volatile trading because many traders will stay home and nurse their hangovers.

$ $ $

I bought chicken at Walmart and after I weighed the package, I noticed that it said it could include up to 15% of broth. At $2 a pound, it's expensive water. The trouble is, the package contained 19% water. Needless to say, I won't be buying the store brand anymore.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,941.57    
 Weekly S2  5,151.76  210.19   
 Monthly S1  5,161.13  9.37   
 Monthly Pivot  5,253.96  92.84   
 Weekly S1  5,266.22  12.26   
 Weekly Pivot  5,306.51  40.29   
 Daily S2  5,340.68  34.17   
 Low  5,350.68  10.00   
 Daily S1  5,360.68  10.00   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,362.14  1.46   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,365.68  3.54   
 Open  5,366.55  0.87   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,369.22  2.67   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  5,370.68  1.46   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,380.68  10.00   
 High  5,380.68  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  5,390.68  10.00   
 Daily R2  5,400.68  10.00   
 Weekly R1  5,420.97  20.29   
 Weekly R2  5,461.26  40.29   
 Monthly R1  5,473.52  12.26   
 Monthly R2  5,566.35  92.84   

Wednesday 11/23/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator has been in a nice uptrend for a while now.

It has reached its peak value of 100 (or nearly so), so do not be alarmed with it going horizontal. It COULD be an indication of weakness. Since the indicator can't rise any further, where else can it go but down? Sideways, possibly?

If you look at the blue line on the chart, you'll see that it doesn't hang around at peaks for long. The index drops, and that seems to take the index down with it, too, albeit at a slower rate.

And yet we know that peaks tend to be rounded looking (bottoms are more v-shaped...I proved this). For the proof, read chapter 19 in my new book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy.

I show a picture of that book on the left.

The opening figure on page 361 shows the results.

The next page shows a figure that describes what I found, how the sharp turns outperform the rounded ones.

Think of it this way: The holidays are coming. Ask your significant other to buy you a copy.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 18% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 20%.
The fewest was 18% on 11/21/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 522 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 12% on 11/21/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

It's been three weeks since I reported on the indicators and look how they have performed. Nice!

In the last week, both the red and blue lines have lost some of their upward momentum. They made a strong push upward from the November low, and then went horizontal.

If you look closely at the right end of the line, you'll see that both lines have resumed their upward march. I hope it continues.

$ $ $

Picture of the percent down indicators

Squirrels have been jumping on my new roof (no, not the one shown in this pic) and using it as a path to a fence that leads to my neighbor's property. I've cut the branches of my live oak tree to keep them from making the leap, but today I took sterner measures. I opened the window of my second floor office and pulled out my tree trimmer and cut the branches further away.

I'm hoping that will work. The banging with four squirrels running around was causing me to loose concentration. Very annoying. What's worse, is I saw one squirrel gnawing on a neighbors house, on his eaves, to re-open a space where they once nested. The homeowner used sheet metal to cover the new hole this time. So the squirrels went next door and used a hole in their eaves to nest.

I told those homeowners about that nest but they didn't care. Go figure. They put on a new roof and the hole was patched.

Squirrels might look nice, but they are just rats with nice looking tails. I think of them as tree rats. I DO know that they chew the branches of one of my trees. I find the remains on my lawn all the time. That gnawing helps keep their teeth from growing too long. I'm not kidding. I read a book on them. All they do is eat and eat and eat and have kids twice a year.

And they eat houses...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 11/22/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.5% or 88.76 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 901 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 489 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 412 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 126/212 or 59.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/63 or 50.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index has traveled horizontally with a slight tilt upward.

That pattern forms a rising wedge or perhaps an ascending triangle.

I show the pattern highlighted in red. Notice, if you can, that the index has poked its head above the top of the chart pattern. It's hard to see. It's only a black dot on the chart. To me it suggests the upward trend will continue. I'm cautious, though. A security reluctant to move up is one destined to tumble. Maybe the drop begins on Tuesday?

$ $ $

I bought a voice recorder to take the place of a medical advocate. It'll record what goes on in any future doctor appointments, so I can play them back to review details of the doc's guidance. I'm going to buy one for my mom because 1) I'm a nice guy and 2) she needs the help.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,540.94    
 Monthly S1  18,248.82  707.87   
 Monthly Pivot  18,591.43  342.62   
 Weekly S2  18,770.94  179.51   
 Daily S2  18,855.86  84.91   
 Weekly S1  18,863.82  7.96   
 Low  18,883.10  19.28   
 Open  18,898.68  15.58   
 Weekly Pivot  18,898.93  0.25   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Daily S1  18,906.27  7.34   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,912.77  6.49   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,921.93  9.16   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,931.09  9.16   
 Daily Pivot  18,933.52  2.42   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  18,956.69  23.17   
 High  18,960.76  4.07   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  18,983.93  23.17   
 Weekly R1  18,991.81  7.87   
 Daily R2  19,011.18  19.37   
 Weekly R2  19,026.92  15.75   
 Monthly R1  19,299.31  272.38   
 Monthly R2  19,641.92  342.62   

Monday 11/21/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

I drew the top red line at A, starting from the left twin peaks in August and heading toward the right.

Notice that the index is just below the line. That suggests the index has a bit of room to climb upward until hitting a full wall of resistance.

That doesn't mean the index will rise. It could drop just as easily or soar through the barrier. Support and resistance areas are just that, areas, not distinct points.

The two red lines, A and C, if a peak appears at C, will form a chart pattern called right-angled and descending broadening formation.

The white space between B and the red line directly above it makes the pattern suspect.

Rather, look at trendlines B and C. Those two form a down-sloping channel with price zipping up and outside of the channel at the end of it.

What does all of this mean? My gut tells me the index is going to reverse. It's had a nice run up and now it needs to retrace a bit before resuming the upward push.

But these upward runs often last longer than anyone expects (as I've mentioned in other posts).

Whatever happens now, my trading account has a big smile on it.

$ $ $

As followers of this site know, I went to my doctor after I spit up blood a few weeks ago. I wanted to check my A1C, which requires a blood test. Got that done right then.

A few days later, my doc called me in again and said they wanted to do a CBC. So I went in, and they drew blood. Good news: They didn't charge me for an office visit.

The person who draws the blood is a third party, meaning they work for a separate company.

I received the two bills for the blood work and here's the kicker. Each of the bills has a charge for the associated blood test but also $21 for each needle stick.

In other words, if the doc had the CBC done when I had my A1C blood drawn, I could have saved $21.

To put it differently, the doctor's mistake (delay) cost me money.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 21.03 points.
Tuesday: Up 54.37 points.
Wednesday: Down 54.92 points.
Thursday: Up 35.68 points.
Friday: Down 35.89 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 20.27 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 84.4 points or 1.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 17.4499 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.3% down from the high of 18,934.05 on 11/14/2016.
     22.1% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     0.5% down from the high of 5,346.80 on 11/18/2016.
     26.4% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     0.5% down from the high of 2,193.81 on 08/15/2016.
     20.5% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

Top

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 11/18/2016, the CPI had:

10 bearish patterns,
20 bullish patterns,
535 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 66.7%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,817  18,843  18,879  18,905  18,941 
Weekly  18,741  18,805  18,869  18,933  18,997 
Monthly  17,511  18,190  18,562  19,240  19,612 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,175  2,178  2,184  2,188  2,194 
Weekly  2,142  2,162  2,176  2,196  2,210 
Monthly  2,046  2,114  2,152  2,220  2,258 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,297  5,309  5,328  5,340  5,359 
Weekly  5,132  5,227  5,287  5,382  5,442 
Monthly  4,922  5,122  5,234  5,434  5,547 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 29.8%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 52.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 30.1%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 53.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 32.9%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 46.9%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
24Pipe bottom
13Triangle, symmetrical
12Head-and-shoulders bottom
10Head-and-shoulders top
9Double Top, Adam and Adam
9Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
7Double Top, Eve and Adam
7Broadening bottom
6Dead-cat bounce
6Triangle, descending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Securities Brokerage3. Insurance (Life)
4. Insurance (Life)4. Internet
5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing5. Computer Software and Svcs
50. Chemical (Diversified)50. Biotechnology
51. Advertising51. Retail Building Supply
52. Electric Utility (Central)52. Short ETFs
53. Electric Utility (West)53. Shoe
54. Toiletries/Cosmetics54. Toiletries/Cosmetics
55. Electric Utility (East)55. Retail (Special Lines)
56. Household Products56. Furn/Home Furnishings
57. Short ETFs57. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 11/18/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 13 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 625 stocks searched, or 2.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 17 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 21 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACETPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Chemical (Diversified)
AESBroadening bottom      10/11/201611/14/2016Electric Utility (East)
AIGPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AMNBroadening wedge, descending      09/06/201611/17/2016Human Resources
BCPCPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Chemical (Specialty)
BERYRectangle top      08/22/201611/16/2016Packaging and Container
BLDRPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Retail Building Supply
CGIPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SCORPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Information Services
CONNPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Retail (Special Lines)
COSTPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Retail Store
^DJIPennant      11/14/201611/17/2016None
DOWBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      09/13/201611/17/2016Chemical (Basic)
ESVPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
FRDPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Building Materials
DHIBroadening wedge, descending      10/13/201611/17/2016Homebuilding
NVTADead-cat bounce      11/16/201611/17/2016Medical Services
NTAPPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Computers and Peripherals
NEPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NSHPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
PATKPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Retail Building Supply
PICOScallop, ascending      10/24/201611/16/2016Diversified Co.
PESPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
ROSTTriangle, descending      08/19/201611/16/2016Retail (Special Lines)
SLBDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/02/201611/14/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SWNPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Natural Gas (Diversified)
SMRTDead-cat bounce      11/17/201611/17/2016Apparel
RIGPipe bottom      11/01/201611/07/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PHOBroadening top, right-angled and descending      08/03/201611/17/2016Investment Co. (Domestic)
SMHTriangle, descending      09/26/201611/14/2016Semiconductor

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 11/10/2016 and 11/17/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 545 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $18.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.45 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.61%
Volume: 262,100 shares. 3 month avg: 294,282 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/26/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/25/2016 and a 38% chance by 02/24/2017.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

AES Corp (AES)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 348 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $11.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.68 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.44%
Volume: 3,138,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,631,014 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 10/11/2016 to 11/14/2016
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

American International Group (AIG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 170 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $64.23
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.00 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.65%
Volume: 6,167,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,461,420 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

AMN Healthcare (AMN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 574 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $33.35
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.86 or 10.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.41%
Volume: 595,500 shares. 3 month avg: 865,478 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 09/06/2016 to 11/17/2016
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

Top

Balchem Corp (BCPC)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 101 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $77.23
1 Month avg volatility: $2.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.31 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.02%
Volume: 125,500 shares. 3 month avg: 124,809 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Berry Plastics Group Inc (BERY)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 162 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $46.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.08 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 28.05%
Volume: 1,529,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,531,845 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 08/22/2016 to 11/16/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 475 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $11.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.47 or 14.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.18%
Volume: 1,752,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,240,905 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Celadon Group Inc. (CGI)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 585 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $8.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.52 or 19.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.60%
Volume: 590,700 shares. 3 month avg: 460,645 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

comScore Inc (SCOR)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 335 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $29.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.88 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.26%
Volume: 255,900 shares. 3 month avg: 513,555 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/28/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 12/27/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Conns Inc (CONN)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 399 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $11.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.27 or 15.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -53.13%
Volume: 325,300 shares. 3 month avg: 871,142 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/02/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 12/01/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 354 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $151.20
1 Month avg volatility: $2.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $145.31 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.38%
Volume: 2,096,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,452,257 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

DJ 30 Industrials (^DJI)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
11/17/16 close: $18,903.82
1 Month avg volatility: $144.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18,555.39 or 1.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.49%
Volume: 89,936,100 shares. 3 month avg: 92,686,634 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 11/14/2016 to 11/17/2016
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Top

Dow Chemical (DOW)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 364 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $53.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.01 or 3.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.65%
Volume: 4,240,300 shares. 3 month avg: 6,261,180 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 09/13/2016 to 11/17/2016
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top

ENSCO International (ESV)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 591 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $8.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.45 or 11.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -45.42%
Volume: 6,334,900 shares. 3 month avg: 8,937,945 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Friedman Industries Inc (FRD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 520 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $5.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.38 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.08%
Volume: 1,200 shares. 3 month avg: 7,580 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Horton, D.R. Inc. (DHI)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 474 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $28.57
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.84 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.80%
Volume: 4,666,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,399,537 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 10/13/2016 to 11/17/2016
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

Top

Invitae Corp (NVTA)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 463 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $6.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.30 or 21.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -26.80%
Volume: 5,114,300 shares. 3 month avg: 205,212 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 11/16/2016 to 11/17/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Network Appliance (NTAP)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 35 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $36.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.88 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 39.09%
Volume: 14,090,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,775,745 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Noble Corporation (NE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 614 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $5.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.73 or 12.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -48.82%
Volume: 8,977,400 shares. 3 month avg: 11,137,546 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

NuStar GP Holdings (NSH)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 378 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $24.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.81 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.78%
Volume: 45,000 shares. 3 month avg: 57,085 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Patrick Industries Inc (PATK)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 99 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $67.55
1 Month avg volatility: $2.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.81 or 11.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 55.29%
Volume: 155,800 shares. 3 month avg: 185,340 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

PICO Holdings (PICO)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 23 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $13.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.02 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 34.69%
Volume: 59,600 shares. 3 month avg: 99,692 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 10/24/2016 to 11/16/2016
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

Top

Pioneer Energy Services (PES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 32 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $4.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.79 or 13.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 102.76%
Volume: 558,200 shares. 3 month avg: 757,957 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Ross Stores (ROST)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 212 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $65.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.00 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.78%
Volume: 4,006,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,619,178 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/19/2016 to 11/16/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Schlumberger Limited (SLB)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 258 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $80.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $76.94 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.84%
Volume: 4,700,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,823,429 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/02/2016 to 11/14/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $10.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.21 or 11.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 45.85%
Volume: 11,647,300 shares. 3 month avg: 14,855,997 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 201 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $5.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.26 or 22.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -23.92%
Volume: 1,842,900 shares. 3 month avg: 155,622 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 11/17/2016 to 11/17/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 197 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $11.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.04 or 8.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.07%
Volume: 14,051,000 shares. 3 month avg: 14,690,220 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/07/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

PowerShares Water Resources (PHO)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 297 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $24.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.12 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.75%
Volume: 43,400 shares. 3 month avg: 59,640 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 08/03/2016 to 11/17/2016
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Top

VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 69 out of 617
11/17/16 close: $69.93
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $72.30 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 31.25%
Volume: 1,520,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,943,352 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 09/26/2016 to 11/14/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top


Thursday 11/17/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.4% or 18.96 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 569 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 360 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 209 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 116/201 or 57.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/78 or 51.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The red pattern is a symmetrical triangle, and a nicely shaped one at that. The breakout direction from the triangle is unknown until it makes its move.

Because yahoo took their time updating their quotes, I am posting this just before the market opens. And the Dow futures are flat. So the uncertainty continues.

The blue lines show what I thought was a rising wedge (before I drew the lines) but it looks like just another channel.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,917.06    
 Weekly S2  5,060.10  143.04   
 Monthly S1  5,105.82  45.72   
 Weekly S1  5,177.34  71.52   
 Monthly Pivot  5,223.17  45.83   
 Daily S2  5,234.28  11.11   
 Weekly Pivot  5,240.01  5.73   
 Low  5,251.88  11.87   
 Open  5,253.74  1.86   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  5,264.43  10.69   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,270.12  5.69   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,275.75  5.63   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,281.39  5.63   
 Daily Pivot  5,282.03  0.64   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,294.58  12.55   
 High  5,299.63  5.05   
 Daily R1  5,312.18  12.55   
 Daily R2  5,329.78  17.60   
 Weekly R1  5,357.25  27.47   
 Monthly R1  5,411.93  54.68   
 Weekly R2  5,419.92  7.99   
 Monthly R2  5,529.28  109.36   

Tuesday 11/16/16. Picking Mutual Funds for Performance

Picture of mutual funds.

Back in early October, I sold about half my IRA holdings (mutual funds) and went into cash. I was able to sidestep the decline that began just days later. On Monday, I moved one under performing fund to another more promising one. I'm waiting for this recent market spike to retrace, following a buy the dip scenario. I have my mutual funds already picked out, and I'll buy after weakness sets in.

How do I measure performance of funds? Look at the figure.

Price at A has failed to exceed peak C. It shows weakness. Now look at B versus peak D. B is above D, so the fund is outperforming the other scenario.

I just looked for mutual funds with the BD setup and avoided the AC one.

Then I charted both funds on the same scale, starting from the same price. This is a version of relative strength and some charting services will do this for you (I got bigcharts.com to do it, but now I struggle getting it to work. Go figure). The index or fund on top is the stronger of the two. It's best if the fund has remained on top for a long time.

What you're looking for is a fund that's been strong over time and is beating the index.

A fund that is vastly under performing the indices can also be a worthwhile holding. Think "dogs of the Dow." The under performing fund will turn upward and outperform the others. Eventually.

Unfortunately, an under performing fund can stay that way for a long long time. And its climb to the top of the food chain can be slow, too. Finally, the performance of these dogs is slightly worse than the other type of momentum play (strong funds tend to remain strong).

That's what I learned from my "mutt winners" and "mutt losers" test portfolios (see page top, right).

$ $ $

I went for a bicycle ride today, the first time since I spit up a mouthful of blood three weeks ago. I didn't push it, because I didn't want to aggravate my lungs, but still averaged over 17 mph on the ride. That's not bad for a guy approaching 60 but well off last year's pace when I was bumping up against 19 mph over a 14.5 mile course.

-- Thomas Bulkowski


Tuesday 11/15/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.1% or 21.03 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1299 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 668 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 631 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 125/211 or 59.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/63 or 50.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

Notice that the Dow has made a good move higher, following channel A.

Following that, channel B also has an upward slope but at a much slower pace. This does not surprise me. After a short and steep run-up, like that shown by many stocks, the stock or index will tend to go flat for a proportionate amount of time. That's what I think we're seeing now.

If strength remains in the index, then we'll see an upward breakout and a resumption of the upward channel (A) following its slope, or nearly so.

If the index weakens, then look for a downward breakout from the channel.

The index could just slide sideways but sooner or later, it will break out.

$ $ $

Visited my dentist. No cavities. No problems. Yippee.

This past weekend, I used my shredder to eat some papers. The instructions warned that it only shreds paper, not staples or anything else. I didn't notice that my vet taped my dog's rabies tag to a paper I was shredding. Oops.

It entered the machine and jammed it. Took a pair of pliers and about five minutes to free it from the machine. Then I used it for another form or two. Then I piled into it about a dozen sheets (max 7) and the machine ground to a halt and made a funny noise. I unplugged it and cleared the paper from the two shredder rollers but that didn't help. So I dismantled it to find what I expected: a missing tooth on a nylon gear.

In other words, I toasted my shredder. I bought a new one from Walmart that was cheaper ($55) and this one can chew staples, small paper clips and even credit cards.

The good news is that I figured out how to destroy old DVDs, too. I tried bending them until they broke but that takes a lot of strength and the shards are dangerous when the disk shatters.

Instead, I use tin snips to slice through the disk. Be sure to wear eye protection but you'll find it won't be needed. The disks don't shatter when cut with the snips (at least mine didn't and I cut hundreds).

For my floppy disks, I put a ice pick through the disk's film.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,551.87    
 Weekly S2  17,699.98  148.11   
 Monthly S1  18,210.28  510.30   
 Weekly S1  18,284.33  74.05   
 Monthly Pivot  18,541.97  257.64   
 Weekly Pivot  18,579.00  37.03   
 Daily S2  18,754.53  175.53   
 Daily S1  18,811.61  57.08   
 Low  18,815.75  4.14   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,860.94  45.19   
 Close  18,868.69  7.75   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  18,872.83  4.14   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,874.90  2.07   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  18,876.77  1.87   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,888.86  12.09   
 Daily R1  18,929.91  41.05   
 High  18,934.05  4.14   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  18,991.13  57.08   
 Weekly R1  19,163.35  172.22   
 Monthly R1  19,200.38  37.03   
 Weekly R2  19,458.02  257.64   
 Monthly R2  19,532.07  74.05   

Monday 11/14/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

I looked at this chart and looked and looked and didn't really see anything interesting.

The Dow is making new highs, but not this index. Why?

Look at the progress of the index since August. I show that with the red line. It tilts upward, sure, but not by much.

It's possible that the index has been stuck in place by the under performance of a few stocks. I've heard that's a problem with the weighting of stocks in the index.

Whatever the reason, I am thankful for the stocks I own. They are doing spectacular, so spectacular that I fear a collapse of their upward move. That means giving back profit.

Of course, if you sell then the stocks will continue their upward ascent. Hold and they will reverse.

When they do reverse, you exit quickly but then the reverse turns into a pause before a resumption of the upward move.

One of my favorite techniques in such a situation is to put a trailing stop a penny or two below the prior day's low. Move it up each day as price rises. When the stock reverses, it'll take you out immediately. A no sweat exit. They key to this is to make sure you have a strong trend.

You do that by making sure that the stock has posted at least three higher lows, preferably also making higher highs.

That technique works well for swing trades, when you want to exit at the first sign of a slowdown.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 371.32 points.
Tuesday: Up 73.14 points.
Wednesday: Up 256.95 points.
Thursday: Up 218.19 points.
Friday: Up 39.78 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 959.38 points or 5.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 190.74 points or 3.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 79.2701 points or 3.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.1% down from the high of 18,873.66 on 11/10/2016.
     22.0% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     2.0% down from the high of 5,342.88 on 09/22/2016.
     24.4% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     1.3% down from the high of 2,193.81 on 08/15/2016.
     19.6% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

Top

Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Retail sales8:30 TA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
International trade8:30 TC+Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others.
Business inventories10:00 TC-Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.
Producer price index8:30 WB-Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation.
Industrial production9:15 WB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Capacity utilization9:15 WB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Consumer price index8:30 ThB+Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services.
Housing starts8:30 ThB-Number of homes beginning construction.
Building permits8:30 ThB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
VIX expiresWednesday
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 11/11/2016, the CPI had:

2 bearish patterns,
11 bullish patterns,
112 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 84.6%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,695  18,771  18,813  18,890  18,932 
Weekly  17,693  18,270  18,572  19,149  19,451 
Monthly  17,545  18,196  18,535  19,186  19,525 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,148  2,156  2,161  2,169  2,174 
Weekly  2,067  2,116  2,149  2,198  2,231 
Monthly  2,045  2,105  2,144  2,203  2,242 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,158  5,197  5,219  5,259  5,281 
Weekly  5,041  5,139  5,221  5,319  5,401 
Monthly  4,898  5,068  5,204  5,374  5,510 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 42.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 52.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 41.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 53.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 44.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 46.9%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
13Triangle, symmetrical
12Pipe bottom
9Head-and-shoulders top
9Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Double Top, Eve and Adam
7Triangle, descending
6Head-and-shoulders bottom
5Broadening bottom
4Dead-cat bounce
4Rectangle top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This list is old (unchanged) due to a technical issue.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Insurance (Life)3. Insurance (Life)
4. Internet4. Internet
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Computer Software and Svcs
50. Biotechnology50. Biotechnology
51. Retail Building Supply51. Retail Building Supply
52. Short ETFs52. Short ETFs
53. Shoe53. Shoe
54. Toiletries/Cosmetics54. Toiletries/Cosmetics
55. Retail (Special Lines)55. Retail (Special Lines)
56. Furn/Home Furnishings56. Furn/Home Furnishings
57. Apparel57. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 11/11/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 21 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 625 stocks searched, or 3.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 6 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ATSGPipe bottom      10/24/201611/01/2016Air Transport
BERYRectangle top      08/22/201611/10/2016Packaging and Container
BMRNPipe bottom      10/24/201611/01/2016Biotechnology
CNCDead-cat bounce      11/08/201611/09/2016Medical Services
CENXPipe bottom      10/24/201611/01/2016Metals and Mining (Div.)
CLGXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/01/201611/08/2016Information Services
CSODDead-cat bounce      11/03/201611/04/2016E-Commerce
CRMeasured move up      10/21/201611/10/2016Diversified Co.
FEYEPipe bottom      10/24/201611/01/2016Computer Software and Svcs
FLEXBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      09/22/201611/10/2016Electronics
HELEHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/12/201611/09/2016Toiletries/Cosmetics
IBPPipe bottom      10/24/201611/01/2016Retail Building Supply
LOWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/01/201611/09/2016Retail Building Supply
MASHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/25/201611/09/2016Building Materials
MLHRDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/14/201611/09/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
NEEHead-and-shoulders top      10/20/201611/08/2016Electric Utility (East)
NSHRectangle top      04/21/201611/10/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
PPGHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/13/201611/09/2016Chemical (Diversified)
SRBroadening bottom      10/21/201611/10/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
UGIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/01/201611/08/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
VMIHorn bottom      10/17/201611/01/2016Metal Fabricating
PAYHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/20/201611/09/2016Telecom. Equipment
VRTXPipe bottom      10/24/201611/01/2016Biotechnology
VCTriangle, symmetrical      10/10/201611/08/2016Electronics
IYCBroadening top, right-angled and descending      10/04/201611/10/2016Retail Store
ILFDouble Top, Eve and Adam      10/24/201611/08/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)
MXITriangle, symmetrical      09/07/201611/04/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 11/03/2016 and 11/10/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Air Transport Services Group (ATSG)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 115 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $15.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.25 or 10.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 57.84%
Volume: 573,500 shares. 3 month avg: 244,143 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 10/24/2016 to 11/01/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Berry Plastics Group Inc (BERY)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 145 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $44.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.40 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.58%
Volume: 1,645,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,593,337 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 08/22/2016 to 11/10/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 174 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $93.54
1 Month avg volatility: $3.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $84.91 or 9.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.71%
Volume: 2,166,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,435,834 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 10/24/2016 to 11/01/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Centene Corp (CNC)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 449 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $55.43
1 Month avg volatility: $2.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.53 or 9.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.77%
Volume: 5,104,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,499,549 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 11/08/2016 to 11/09/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 56 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $9.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.58 or 17.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 108.60%
Volume: 4,219,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,917,674 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 10/24/2016 to 11/01/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

CoreLogic Inc (CLGX)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 293 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $39.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.15 or 9.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.75%
Volume: 1,112,300 shares. 3 month avg: 476,900 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/08/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Cornerstone OnDemand Inc (CSOD)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 534 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $33.82
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.20 or 13.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.06%
Volume: 1,019,600 shares. 3 month avg: 609,278 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 11/03/2016 to 11/04/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Crane Co (CR)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 59 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $72.70
1 Month avg volatility: $1.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.20 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 51.96%
Volume: 418,200 shares. 3 month avg: 250,642 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 10/21/2016 to 11/10/2016

Top

FireEye Inc (FEYE)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 268 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $14.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.70 or 10.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -31.58%
Volume: 8,625,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,886,325 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 10/24/2016 to 11/01/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Flextronics International Ltd (FLEX)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 156 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $13.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.85 or 14.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.91%
Volume: 4,343,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,978,537 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 09/22/2016 to 11/10/2016
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top

Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 573 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $82.20
1 Month avg volatility: $2.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $77.94 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.79%
Volume: 256,300 shares. 3 month avg: 227,200 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/12/2016 to 11/09/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Installed Building Products Inc (IBP)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 100 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $37.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.12 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 49.82%
Volume: 172,600 shares. 3 month avg: 218,960 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 10/24/2016 to 11/01/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Lowes Companies, Inc (LOW)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 516 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $69.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.83 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.65%
Volume: 9,759,600 shares. 3 month avg: 5,862,666 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/09/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Masco Corp. (MAS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 410 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $31.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.42 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.13%
Volume: 5,005,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,925,802 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/25/2016 to 11/09/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Miller, Herman (MLHR)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 399 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $30.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.72 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.10%
Volume: 416,100 shares. 3 month avg: 453,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 10/14/2016 to 11/09/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

NextEra Energy Inc (NEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 462 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $115.06
1 Month avg volatility: $1.95. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $120.83 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.75%
Volume: 7,464,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,181,288 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 10/20/2016 to 11/08/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Top

NuStar GP Holdings (NSH)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 408 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $24.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.99 or 10.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.84%
Volume: 38,400 shares. 3 month avg: 59,429 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 04/21/2016 to 11/10/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

PPG Industries Inc (PPG)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 533 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $96.87
1 Month avg volatility: $1.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $92.38 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.97%
Volume: 2,826,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,769,774 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/13/2016 to 11/09/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Spire (SR)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 482 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $61.35
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.61 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.27%
Volume: 298,700 shares. 3 month avg: 254,055 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 10/21/2016 to 11/10/2016
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

UGI Corp. (UGI)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 391 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $42.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.28 or 10.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 24.61%
Volume: 1,353,100 shares. 3 month avg: 700,366 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/08/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Valmont Industries Inc. (VMI)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 373 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $137.75
1 Month avg volatility: $3.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $127.13 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 29.93%
Volume: 175,400 shares. 3 month avg: 124,503 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 10/17/2016 to 11/01/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

VeriFone Systems, Inc (PAY)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 615 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $16.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.21 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -42.18%
Volume: 2,586,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,870,662 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 09/20/2016 to 11/09/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 09/02/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 12/02/2016 and a 38% chance by 03/03/2017.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 170 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $95.36
1 Month avg volatility: $3.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $87.50 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.22%
Volume: 4,130,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,677,995 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 10/24/2016 to 11/01/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Visteon Corp (VC)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 506 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $69.19
1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.20 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -39.57%
Volume: 392,700 shares. 3 month avg: 333,809 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/10/2016 to 11/08/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

DJ US consumer svcs index fnd (retail) (IYC)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 386 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $145.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $142.59 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.91%
Volume: 40,800 shares. 3 month avg: 31,255 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 10/04/2016 to 11/10/2016
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Top

S and P Latin America 40 Index fund (ILF)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 263 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $27.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.44 or 8.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 31.95%
Volume: 13,135,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,080,049 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 10/24/2016 to 11/08/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

SandP Global Materials Sector Index fund (MXI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 193 out of 619
11/10/16 close: $55.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.11 or 1.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.57%
Volume: 16,600 shares. 3 month avg: 40,543 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/07/2016 to 11/04/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top


Thursday 11/10/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.1% or 57.58 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 169 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 108 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 61 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 116/200 or 58.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/78 or 51.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The two channels I show here in red. One tilts downward and the other recovers the loss.

A v-bottom is also the name of a chart pattern that resembles the two channels. I just drew the channel lines willy-nilly, so don't be concerned that price crosses the bottom trendline.

What one can say about channels is that the index will stay between the two lines...until it doesn't.

The most likely breakout direction is downward because an upward breakout would take a big push upward. That could happen. We've already seen a huge rally over the last several days.

And that means a downward retrace is overdue.

$ $ $

I stayed up an extra three hours last night to watch the election returns. I made a party out of it. A pizza (DiGiorno: pepperoni, supposed to be the best of the frozen variety according to America's Test Kitchen, but it was just OK), salad, and a glass of wine completed the scene. Lots of fun watching the lead of each state change from person to person. You guys might like the super bowl or world series. I'll take a close election to curl my toes.

During the event, the news media said that the Dow futures were off 800 (over 900 as reported by a friend). I rubbed my hands with glee because I knew that buying at the open would likely lead to a tasty rebound. But when I checked the futures before the market open, the Dow was off just 300. Yawn. I didn't bother researching this any further.

Of course, I didn't expect the Dow to rise as much as it did. At least I had good instincts.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,902.56    
 Weekly S2  4,991.77  89.21   
 Monthly S1  5,076.81  85.04   
 Daily S2  5,102.84  26.03   
 Weekly S1  5,121.42  18.58   
 Low  5,143.86  22.44   
 Open  5,143.86  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  5,164.06  20.20   
 Daily S1  5,176.96  12.90   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,187.84  10.88   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,201.42  13.58   
 Monthly Pivot  5,208.67  7.24   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,215.01  6.34   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  5,217.97  2.96   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,251.07  33.10   
 High  5,258.99  7.92   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  5,292.09  33.10   
 Weekly R1  5,293.71  1.62   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  5,333.10  39.39   
 Weekly R2  5,336.35  3.25   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  5,382.92  46.57   
 Monthly R2  5,514.78  131.85   

Tuesday 11/8/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 2.1% or 371.32 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 66 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 35 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 31 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 124/210 or 59.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/63 or 50.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

$ $ $

Both yahoo and google quote systems seemed to have died after the close on Monday. Yahoo isn't reporting at all. Google has so much dirt (0 numbers) in their quotes as to be unusable. I waited late into the evening for correct data before giving up. This morning (Tuesday), there's no change with the services.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials non the 5-minute scale but on the daily chart.

A symmetrical triangle (A) appears on the chart, shown here in red. I show this scale because I want you to be aware of what I see happening on a longer scale.

Price has pulled back to the apex of the triangle (B). In these cases, there is an increased chance that the index will head back down. It might not happen today (Tuesday), but it's something to watch for.

$ $ $

If I were elected president, I'd make the hard choices, starting with petitioning congress to get rid of daylight savings time. How about this: We adjust our clocks by one-half hour and not touch them again.

$ $ $

I won't be posting tonight. I want to watch the election and not worry about how to get today's quotes.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,664.64    
 Weekly S2  17,802.16  137.52   
 Daily S2  17,903.85  101.69   
 Monthly S1  17,962.12  58.27   
 Open  17,994.64  32.52   
 Low  17,994.64  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Open.
 Weekly S1  18,030.88  36.24   
 Daily S1  18,081.73  50.85   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,097.27  15.54   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot  18,112.28  15.01   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,128.97  16.69   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,160.67  31.70   
 Daily Pivot  18,172.51  11.84   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  18,181.04  8.53   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  18,259.60  78.56   
 High  18,263.30  3.70   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  18,341.00  77.70   
 Daily R1  18,350.39  9.39   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  18,422.40  72.01   
 Daily R2  18,441.17  18.77   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  18,478.52  37.35   
 Monthly R2  18,697.44  218.92   

Monday 11/7/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I first noticed the descending triangle. I show that here, outlined in red. Price points its way downward toward a narrowing apex of price movement.

Another bearish pattern appears: a head-and-shoulders top. I have that marked on the chart with the left shoulder (LS), head, and right shoulder (RS) identified

It confirms as a valid chart pattern only when the index closes below the up-sloping neckline (A). I show that neckline in green.

If the neckline were to slope downward, then I'd use a close below the right armpit as a validating signal. The right armpit is the valley to the north west of A.

Both patterns are bearish because they both broke out downward. So I'm looking for more weakness to come.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a lizard from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 18.77 points.
Tuesday: Down 105.32 points.
Wednesday: Down 77.46 points.
Thursday: Down 28.97 points.
Friday: Down 42.39 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 272.91 points or 1.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 143.73 points or 2.8%.
The S&P 500 index was down 41.23 points or 1.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.2% down from the high of 18,668.44 on 08/15/2016.
     15.8% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     5.5% down from the high of 5,342.88 on 09/22/2016.
     19.9% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     5.0% down from the high of 2,193.81 on 08/15/2016.
     15.2% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

Top

Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Consumer credit3:00 MD-Measures auto, credit card and other debt.
Wholesale inventories10:00 WD-Wholesale sales and inventory statistics.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Treasury budget2:00 ThDTracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing).

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 11/04/2016, the CPI had:

20 bearish patterns,
3 bullish patterns,
225 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 13.0%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,816  17,852  17,920  17,956  18,023 
Weekly  17,678  17,783  17,989  18,093  18,299 
Monthly  17,541  17,715  18,057  18,231  18,574 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,074  2,080  2,089  2,095  2,105 
Weekly  2,052  2,069  2,100  2,116  2,148 
Monthly  2,023  2,054  2,115  2,146  2,206 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,003  5,025  5,056  5,078  5,109 
Weekly  4,924  4,985  5,096  5,157  5,268 
Monthly  4,834  4,940  5,140  5,246  5,447 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.4%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months down 7.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 15.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 4 months down 3.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 17.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months down 15.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
20Triangle, symmetrical
10Double Top, Adam and Adam
9Triangle, descending
8Pipe bottom
7Head-and-shoulders top
6Double Top, Eve and Adam
6Broadening bottom
5Rectangle top
4Triangle, ascending
4Pipe top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Insurance (Life)3. Internet
4. Internet4. E-Commerce
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Insurance (Life)
50. Biotechnology50. Retail Building Supply
51. Retail Building Supply51. Biotechnology
52. Short ETFs52. Metals and Mining (Div.)
53. Shoe53. Short ETFs
54. Toiletries/Cosmetics54. Shoe
55. Retail (Special Lines)55. Furn/Home Furnishings
56. Furn/Home Furnishings56. Retail (Special Lines)
57. Apparel57. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 11/4/16. CT Scan Results

Picture of a bug.

I received a report about my CT scan results. As you may know, I spit up a mouthful of blood back in June (3x) and a week ago.

The CT scan revealed scarring from prior lung infections and inflammation related to a current infection.

The doc prescribed an antibiotic. The first line of the information sheet that came with the drug said, "WARNING: This drug may cause very bad side effects."

That's exactly what I wanted to read. I'm not a fan of horror stories...

The good news is that the drug was free. Wow. Never had that happen before. I once had the doc prescribe Advair. Cost? $120 (after insurance, too). I declined to take it and called the doc for a cheaper option. He gave me a free sample.

Infection cause? Could be aggressive bicycle riding, which I do, accompanied by foul air from the diesels that pass by along with the polluted air from living in a city.

I was asked to see a pulmonologist, too. I don't even know why, probably to help him keep up payments on his fleet of yachts.

Thanks to all of you that emailed me expressing your concern. It was most appreciated.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 11/4/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

I've released a new version of patternz, 5.10, which corrects a few bugs with the chart pattern indicator and update. I could not test the installation like I normally do because my security software kept deleting the setup file. It considered it a virus. The virus co. is looking into the problem.

$ $ $

I had my CT scan done this afternoon. Way cool. The machine whirled around me while I held my breath for just 23 seconds. Then they injected contrast, which in rare cases can be fatale, and did another pass. It'll be a few days before I get the results mostly because they want to inform the requesting doc before they let me have the data.

They said that depending on the size of the lung, each pass could be worth 300 x-ray pictures. Wow.

Cost? $325 down from $375 because of insurance (big deal since I'm spending $9,200 per year for my bronze health plan and down from $475 from the facility the doc wanted me to use.

$ $ $

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 627 stocks searched, or 1.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
FLEXBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      09/22/201610/28/2016Electronics
FMCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/13/201611/02/2016Chemical (Basic)
GFFTriangle, symmetrical      08/31/201611/03/2016Building Materials
HWBroadening bottom      09/23/201611/01/2016Building Materials
MTriangle, symmetrical      08/16/201611/03/2016Retail Store
NSHRectangle top      04/21/201611/03/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
OGEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/20/201610/28/2016Electric Utility (Central)
SWCBroadening bottom      08/26/201611/02/2016Metals and Mining (Div.)
ABCODead-cat bounce      11/01/201611/01/2016Information Services
RIGTriangle, symmetrical      09/29/201610/28/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
WGLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/24/201611/01/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
EWGTriangle, descending      09/16/201611/02/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 10/27/2016 and 11/03/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Flextronics International Ltd (FLEX)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 117 out of 619
11/3/16 close: $13.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.61 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 22.75%
Volume: 2,545,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,920,412 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 09/22/2016 to 10/28/2016
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top

FMC Corp. (FMC)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 178 out of 619
11/3/16 close: $50.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.47 or 8.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.16%
Volume: 2,500,600 shares. 3 month avg: 923,932 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 10/13/2016 to 11/02/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 216 out of 619
11/3/16 close: $16.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.87 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.90%
Volume: 127,400 shares. 3 month avg: 133,675 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/31/2016 to 11/03/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Headwaters Inc. (HW)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 480 out of 619
11/3/16 close: $16.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.72 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.19%
Volume: 870,600 shares. 3 month avg: 624,868 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 09/23/2016 to 11/01/2016
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Macys, Inc (M)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 409 out of 619
11/3/16 close: $36.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.21 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.46%
Volume: 5,951,800 shares. 3 month avg: 6,994,263 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/16/2016 to 11/03/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

NuStar GP Holdings (NSH)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 505 out of 619
11/3/16 close: $23.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.28 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.46%
Volume: 65,300 shares. 3 month avg: 63,958 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 04/21/2016 to 11/03/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

OGE Energy Corp (OGE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 321 out of 619
11/3/16 close: $29.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.23 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.58%
Volume: 652,500 shares. 3 month avg: 910,865 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 10/20/2016 to 10/28/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 48 out of 619
11/3/16 close: $13.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.16 or 8.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 55.66%
Volume: 1,203,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,813,023 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2016 to 11/02/2016
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

The Advisory Board Company (ABCO)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 80 out of 619
11/3/16 close: $36.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.91 or 10.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -27.43%
Volume: 356,000 shares. 3 month avg: 240,548 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 11/01/2016 to 11/01/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 365 out of 619
11/3/16 close: $9.87
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.78 or 11.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.27%
Volume: 27,363,900 shares. 3 month avg: 14,942,842 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/29/2016 to 10/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

WGL Holdings (WGL)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 537 out of 619
11/3/16 close: $60.18
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $62.75 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.46%
Volume: 158,700 shares. 3 month avg: 221,263 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 10/24/2016 to 11/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

MSCI Germany Index (EWG)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 342 out of 619
11/3/16 close: $25.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25.87 or 2.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.13%
Volume: 2,876,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,215,442 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 09/16/2016 to 11/02/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top


Thursday 11/3/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.9% or -48.01 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 188 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 88 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 100 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 53.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 116/200 or 58.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/77 or 50.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The downward trend of the Nasdaq is both alarming and pronounced. The sucker is just falling.

I show the downward trend as a channel, highlighted in red.

Notice how the index follows the bottom of the channel. From my day trading days, that suggests a downward breakout or at least a continued move lower. If the index were to hover along the top of the channel, the you'd expect an upward move or breakout.

Combine the down-sloping channel with a lower channel hug, add in the probabilities of the index closing lower tomorrow, and you'd want to avoid the long side.

Just remember that we're overdue for an upward move. So, maybe tomorrow will be it.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,994.52    
 Monthly S1  5,050.05  55.52   
 Daily S2  5,060.80  10.76   
 Weekly S2  5,065.87  5.07   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  5,083.19  17.32   
 Weekly S1  5,085.72  2.53   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  5,097.56  11.84   
 Close  5,105.57  8.01   
 Daily Pivot  5,119.94  14.37   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,120.15  0.21   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,127.13  6.98   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,134.11  6.98   
 Daily R1  5,142.33  8.22   
 Open  5,147.28  4.95   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  5,156.70  9.42   
 Daily R2  5,179.08  22.38   
 Monthly Pivot  5,195.28  16.20   
 Weekly Pivot  5,198.61  3.33   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  5,218.46  19.85   
 Monthly R1  5,250.81  32.35   
 Weekly R2  5,331.35  80.54   
 Monthly R2  5,396.04  64.69   

Wednesday 11/2/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has been bearish for a while now with no up turn indicated. That's why, in part, I remain bearish for the next two weeks (see Tom's Targets in the grid at page top).

Be aware that the blue line at the bottom of the page tends to bounce off the bottom of the scale instead of ride along it, so there is hope of a bullish move soon. If that were to happen, I would expect it to be short lived, though.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Friday, 32% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 31%.
The fewest was 25% on 09/07/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 524 stocks in my database are down an average of 18% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 14% on 08/23/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

Both lines ticked down over the past week, adding to the bearish sentiment.

The blue line was flat for quite some time, but even it has thrown in the towel and started to drop.

$ $ $

I took at look at the ObamaCare website. They want about $620 for the cheapest medical plan to $1,230 for the top plan. Get this: None of them cover the two doctors I use (an optometrist and family doc). I haven't looked to see what type of hospitals are covered, either. If it's like last year, only about three of 20 hospitals will be covered and those three will be rated the most costly and worst providers. I'm not kidding.

Years ago, I went to one of them as an ER visit after I fell off my bike and broke some bones. Got a call the next day from the doc. "We missed your collapsed lung," he said and apologized. Fine. Then he asked me to come in so they could x-ray it AGAIN. The ER visit, at his request, his fees, the radiologist, and the x-rays were all added to my bill. Only the doc waived a portion of his fee when I complained that I returned because he asked me to. HIS mistake cost me almost a grand. Neither my insurance agent no me could change that.

What's the moral of the story? Don't fall off your bicycle.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 11/1/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.1% or -18.77 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1277 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 661 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 616 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 124/209 or 59.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/63 or 50.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The chart shows the index moving horizontally, roughly cycling up and down along the red line.

It also appears to be squeezed between the two green lines, forming a type of symmetrical triangle.

Which way will it break out? If you look at a chart of the chart pattern indicator (not shown), then the breakout will be downward. The indicator is heading toward zero today but that signal can change for up to a week. Stay tuned.

$ $ $

This weekend, I spent most of the day on Saturday installing 25 feet of gutter along my garage and another two hours or so on Sunday to finish the job.

That seems like an unusually long time. Most of Saturday was spent preparing the installation: removing rotten fascia wood (that took a long time because I don't have a reciprocating saw to slice off six inches of wood buried beneath the drip edge), drilling holes in the gutters, matching the two ends to existing gutters, adding bracing, and so on. I also counted wrong and needed two additional brackets, meaning another walk to the nearby Home Depot to pick up some.

On Sunday, all I had to do was screw the gutters onto the house, a ten foot section at a time. By myself. I had to devise a way to hold up each ten foot section of metal (put up a bar-clamp and let the gutter rest on top of it). Unfortunately, I had only two of those clamps.

Coupling the sections together is easy in theory, but with the top end of the joint hidden (it's an upside down J fold that the new gutter slips into) under the drip edge, you can't see if it's installed right or not. And the far end of the new gutter slips down from under the drip edge, making it difficult to work with alone.

They suggest hanging the gutters first and installing the J brackets to join each section together later, but that's for installations without a drip edge already installed. You install the bracket by wrapping it around the gutter and bending over the tab at the top to make the inverted J. It's easy unless you have a drip edge installed. Then you have to bend the tabs before hanging the gutter.

But it was a fun project.

$ $ $

Went shopping this morning for a CT scan place. My doc recommended one facility that was two miles from me, in town. I found one about ten miles away that's 27% cheaper. Wow. Cheaper isn't necessarily better but in this case, it is, in my view.

$ $ $

For those fans of Patternz, I found errors in the chart pattern indicator portion of the program. I found one bug and am still searching why the XP version of patternz gives slightly different results than the new version. The old version has a bug in it too, that of including the index file in the scan. I'll update both versions when I fix any remaining problems.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,727.43    
 Monthly S1  17,934.93  207.49   
 Weekly S2  17,947.18  12.25   
 Weekly S1  18,044.80  97.62   
 Daily S2  18,092.46  47.66   
 Daily S1  18,117.44  24.98   
 Low  18,130.58  13.14   
 Close  18,142.42  11.84   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,154.68  12.26   
 Daily Pivot  18,155.56  0.88   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  18,159.92  4.36   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,162.13  2.21   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Monthly Pivot  18,167.44  5.31   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,169.58  2.13   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Open  18,176.60  7.02   
 Daily R1  18,180.54  3.94   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  18,193.68  13.14   
 Daily R2  18,218.66  24.98   
 Weekly R1  18,257.54  38.88   
 Weekly R2  18,372.66  115.12   
 Monthly R1  18,374.94  2.28   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  18,607.45  232.52   

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.