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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 04/28/2017
20,941 -40.82 -0.2%
9,098 -96.36 -1.0%
704 -3.23 -0.5%
6,048 -1.33 0.0%
2,384 -4.57 -0.2%
YTD
6.0%
0.6%
6.8%
12.3%
6.5%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 04/17/2017
20,100 or 21,150 by 05/01/2017
8,500 or 9,500 by 05/01/2017
725 or 685 by 05/01/2017
6,150 or 5,900 by 05/15/2017
2,275 or 2,425 by 05/01/2017
Mutt Winners: None YTD

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November 2015 Headlines


Archives


Thursday 11/26/15. Holiday!

I'm going to pretend that I'm a submarine and go silent until next week. Have a happy holiday!

You can support this free website by making a donation via PayPal. Click the Donate button above

For those of you donating $100 or more (at one time), I'll send you a free copy of one of my books (while supplies last). The only catch is that you must have a mailing address in the United States.

Here are the books I have available.

Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Visual Guide to Chart Patterns

Click the above donate button and I'll be in touch or you can contact me at .

Have a happy holiday!

-- Thomas Bulkowski.

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Wednesday 11/25/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: Weakness Ahead

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows the indicator has topped out. It's only recourse is to drop. It will do that sooner or later but the slide sideways could be long.

An extended sideways move would be unusual, as the chart of the indicator shows.

What typically happens is the indicator peaks and then turns down with the index following a bit later. That suggests the index will drop in the coming days.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The indicator's green bars are bullish, but notice the rounded turn over the last three days or so in the index (with today's -- Tuesday's -- lower low). That could signal coming weakness.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 11/24/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.2% or -31.13 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1145 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 573 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 572 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 101/172 or 58.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/52 or 51.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The thin red line is a new chart pattern setup that I've been cataloging for about a week now, trying to find enough samples to prove my theory.

I won't go into it now but the chart shows it has most of the components in place. There's a longer-term rise (A) which transitions into a horizontal price movement at B.

Following that, the index plunges (C), but that plunge is short, often just a day long (daily chart) before the stock (or index in this case) rises above the top of the pattern (D).

When that happens, look for a continued rise.

In this example, all we need is to wait for confirmation (D). If that happens, we can see how this pattern works intraday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,755.46    
 Weekly S2  16,935.24  179.78   
 Monthly S1  17,274.07  338.83   
 Weekly S1  17,363.96  89.89   
 Monthly Pivot  17,625.96  262.00   
 Weekly Pivot  17,639.15  13.19   
 Daily S2  17,687.28  48.13   
 Daily S1  17,739.98  52.70   
 Low  17,751.53  11.55   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Close  17,792.68  41.15   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,796.21  3.53   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  17,804.23  8.03   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,810.01  5.78   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  17,823.61  13.60   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,823.80  0.20   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  17,856.93  33.13   
 High  17,868.48  11.55   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  17,921.18  52.70   
 Weekly R1  18,067.87  146.69   
 Monthly R1  18,144.57  76.70   
 Weekly R2  18,343.06  198.49   
 Monthly R2  18,496.46  153.40   

Monday 11/23/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

This is a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

I found it an interesting one.

The index retraced 38% of the AB move at C. That, of course, matches the 38% Fibonacci retrace exactly.

I expected a bigger retrace, 62%.

That could still happen since this might be a pullback to the breakout from a chart pattern. I can't identify the pattern in this chart.

If the index closes above B, then expect a resumption of the upward move. I'm still not convinced that such a move will happen.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 237.77 points.
Tuesday: Up 6.49 points.
Wednesday: Up 247.66 points.
Thursday: Down 4.41 points.
Friday: Up 91.06 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 578.57 points or 3.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 177.04 points or 3.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 66.13 points or 3.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.9% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     16.0% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
     2.4% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     18.9% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
     2.1% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     11.9% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Existing home sales10:00 MCCounts sales of used homes.
Gross domestic product8:30 TBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
Initial jobless claims8:30 WC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Personal income & consumption8:30 WC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 WC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Durable goods orders8:30 WBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.
Michigan sentiment10:00 WB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.
New home sales10:00 WC+Shows sales of single-family homes.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 11/20/2015, the CPI had:

1 bearish patterns,
35 bullish patterns,
379 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 97.2%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,642  17,733  17,824  17,915  18,005 
Weekly  16,946  17,385  17,650  18,089  18,353 
Monthly  16,766  17,295  17,636  18,165  18,507 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,075  2,082  2,090  2,097  2,104 
Weekly  1,991  2,040  2,069  2,118  2,146 
Monthly  1,975  2,032  2,074  2,131  2,174 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,086  5,095  5,104  5,113  5,122 
Weekly  4,838  4,972  5,042  5,175  5,246 
Monthly  4,708  4,906  5,035  5,233  5,362 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 43.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 39.2%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 41.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 44.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 38.6%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
17Triangle, symmetrical
16Dead-cat bounce
13Broadening top
11Head-and-shoulders bottom
9Head-and-shoulders top
8Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
7Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Triple top
6Pipe top
6Pennant

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. Internet
2. Furn/Home Furnishings2. Furn/Home Furnishings
3. Insurance (Life)3. Insurance (Life)
4. Computer Software and Svcs4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing50. Natural Gas (Diversified)
51. Natural Gas (Diversified)51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
52. Retail (Special Lines)52. Petroleum (Producing)
53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment53. Retail (Special Lines)
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 11/20/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 575 stocks searched, or 3.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 12 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEEBroadening wedge, descending      10/21/201511/18/2015Electric Utility (Central)
ABCBroadening top      11/02/201511/18/2015Biotechnology
AHSTriangle, symmetrical      10/20/201511/19/2015Human Resources
BMITriangle, symmetrical      10/27/201511/19/2015Precision Instrument
EGNTriangle, descending      10/30/201511/19/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
FRDRectangle bottom      08/24/201511/19/2015Building Materials
GNWTriangle, ascending      11/05/201511/19/2015Insurance (Life)
LAWSTriangle, symmetrical      10/08/201511/18/2015Metal Fabricating
MASRising wedge      09/17/201511/19/2015Building Materials
NFXRoof, inverted      10/16/201511/19/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
NIRectangle top      10/13/201511/19/2015Electric Utility (Central)
NBLDiamond top      10/09/201511/19/2015Petroleum (Producing)
JWNDead-cat bounce      11/13/201511/13/2015Retail Store
PHMHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/22/201511/16/2015Homebuilding
KWRTriangle, symmetrical      09/29/201511/18/2015Chemical (Specialty)
COLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/30/201511/13/2015Aerospace/Defense
TMOBroadening top      11/04/201511/19/2015Precision Instrument
TRVBroadening top, right-angled and descending      10/29/201511/16/2015Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
WMTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/02/201511/13/2015Retail Store
ITBTriangle, descending      10/13/201511/17/2015Homebuilding

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 11/12/2015 and 11/19/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Ameren (AEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 93 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $43.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.66 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.27%
Volume: 2,280,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,772,052 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 10/21/2015 to 11/18/2015
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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AmerisourceBergen Corp (ABC)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 375 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $99.19
1 Month avg volatility: $2.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $105.25 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.02%
Volume: 2,044,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,496,649 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/02/2015 to 11/18/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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AMN Healthcare (AHS)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 72 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $29.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.33 or 13.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 49.03%
Volume: 1,672,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,075,948 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/20/2015 to 11/19/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Badger Meter Inc. (BMI)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 288 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $59.89
1 Month avg volatility: $1.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.43 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.91%
Volume: 46,800 shares. 3 month avg: 81,658 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/27/2015 to 11/19/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Energen Corp (EGN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 397 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $57.39
1 Month avg volatility: $2.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $65.40 or 14.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.99%
Volume: 736,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,046,114 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 10/30/2015 to 11/19/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Friedman Industries Inc (FRD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 325 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $5.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.34 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.98%
Volume: 13,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,083 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 11/19/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $4.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.16 or 13.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -43.76%
Volume: 6,991,100 shares. 3 month avg: 8,927,546 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 11/05/2015 to 11/19/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/06/2015. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/04/2016.
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 46 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $28.28
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.27 or 10.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.84%
Volume: 109,300 shares. 3 month avg: 39,622 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/08/2015 to 11/18/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Masco Corp. (MAS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 79 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $29.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.34 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.85%
Volume: 3,943,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,740,789 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 09/17/2015 to 11/19/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Newfield Exploration Company (NFX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 106 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $39.16
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.86 or 12.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 44.40%
Volume: 4,360,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,762,654 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 10/16/2015 to 11/19/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Nisource Inc. (NI)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 556 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $19.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.80 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -53.54%
Volume: 1,448,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,054,386 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 10/13/2015 to 11/19/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Noble Energy Inc. (NBL)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 408 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $36.60
1 Month avg volatility: $1.41. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.98 or 9.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -22.83%
Volume: 2,304,400 shares. 3 month avg: 6,144,958 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 10/09/2015 to 11/19/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 474 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $55.60
1 Month avg volatility: $1.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.02 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.97%
Volume: 3,116,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,323,995 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 11/13/2015 to 11/13/2015

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Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 256 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $19.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.80 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.09%
Volume: 3,425,400 shares. 3 month avg: 6,300,012 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/22/2015 to 11/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Quaker Chemical (KWR)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 219 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $83.58
1 Month avg volatility: $2.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $79.05 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.19%
Volume: 52,600 shares. 3 month avg: 81,755 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/29/2015 to 11/18/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Rockwell Collins (COL)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 283 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $92.26
1 Month avg volatility: $1.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $86.87 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.21%
Volume: 1,209,600 shares. 3 month avg: 750,311 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 10/30/2015 to 11/13/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thermo Electron Corp (TMO)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 118 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $137.40
1 Month avg volatility: $2.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $143.51 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.67%
Volume: 1,562,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,068,888 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/04/2015 to 11/19/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Travelers Companies Inc, The (TRV)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 71 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $115.02
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $111.42 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.66%
Volume: 1,068,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,082,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 10/29/2015 to 11/16/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 438 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $60.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.65 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.32%
Volume: 11,566,000 shares. 3 month avg: 12,724,877 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/02/2015 to 11/13/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ US Home construction index fund (ITB)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 142 out of 567
11/19/15 close: $27.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.21 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.08%
Volume: 1,783,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,503,211 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 10/13/2015 to 11/17/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Thursday 11/19/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.8% or 89.18 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 55 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 32 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 23 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/163 or 58.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/67 or 47.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The ABCD move is a chart pattern called the measured move up.

The theory is that the CD move will equal the AB move. I didn't measure it in this case, but they look similar. What's important about this pattern is now that it has completed, you often get a retrace back to the corrective phase, BC. That is what I expect to happen but it might not be tomorrow (Thursday).

I also show a horizontal red line. That's a line of overhead resistance, suggestion that a downward move might occur on Thursday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,611.58    
 Weekly S2  4,836.57  224.99   
 Monthly S1  4,843.39  6.82   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  4,955.89  112.50   
 Daily S2  4,974.76  18.87   
 Low  5,001.67  26.91   
 Monthly Pivot  5,003.43  1.76   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Open  5,004.61  1.18   Yes! The Open is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S1  5,024.98  20.37   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,031.13  6.15   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,040.23  9.10   
 Weekly Pivot  5,044.66  4.43   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,049.34  4.67   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  5,051.89  2.55   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,075.20  23.31   
 High  5,078.80  3.60   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  5,102.11  23.31   
 Daily R2  5,129.02  26.91   
 Weekly R1  5,163.98  34.96   
 Monthly R1  5,235.24  71.26   
 Weekly R2  5,252.75  17.51   
 Monthly R2  5,395.28  142.53   

Wednesday 11/18/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This chart shows the indicator has dropped again, to B.

The chart also shows the index climbing to A. When B goes down and A climbs, that's bearish divergence. It suggests the index is going to drop and follow the indicator lower. However, the indicator is near 0, so it can't go much lower.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The red bands are bearish.

$ $ $

Picture of my birdhouse

A tornado touched down in my town overnight but didn't damage my house, thankfully. That's the second time in about two months that a tornado has targeted the town.

$ $ $

The picture on the right is of my new bird house mounted on a column.

I completed the column this weekend but wanted the stain to dry during the recent storms. I put the pieces together this morning and lifted the house onto the column.

Inside the column is a metal pole cemented to the ground.

I'll be surprised if birds use the house. They are supposed to avoid bird houses painted in bright colors. I'm not sure that this one qualifies. My other two houses (two of three) had birds poking their beaks into them yesterday and I saw them inside both houses.

When they are ready to nest in the spring, then I'll know for sure.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 11/17/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 1.4% or 237.77 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 189 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 108 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 81 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 100/171 or 58.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/52 or 51.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

After such a strong move up, I would expect a retrace but that's not what happens sometimes. You get follow-through, where the index continues to move higher.

The above probabilities suggest a higher close on Tuesday.

If the index does move up, there is resistance shown by the two red lines. Of course, today's (Monday's) session ended at the lower red line. The index on Tuesday might rise less than 100 points, to bury itself somewhere in the congestion region shown by the start of the lower red line.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,359.33    
 Weekly S2  16,879.00  519.67   
 Monthly S1  16,921.17  42.17   
 Daily S2  17,119.57  198.40   
 Weekly S1  17,181.01  61.44   
 Low  17,210.43  29.42   
 Open  17,229.94  19.51   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  17,301.29  71.35   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,314.55  13.27   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,346.72  32.17   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,378.88  32.16   
 Daily Pivot  17,392.15  13.27   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  17,449.51  57.36   
 Close  17,483.01  33.50   
 High  17,483.01  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot  17,540.89  57.88   
 Daily R1  17,573.87  32.98   
 Daily R2  17,664.73  90.86   
 Weekly R1  17,842.90  178.17   
 Monthly R1  18,011.35  168.45   
 Weekly R2  18,202.78  191.43   
 Monthly R2  18,539.69  336.91   

Monday 11/16/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

Finally, the retrace that I've been waiting for has occurred.

This is a picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

How far will the index decline?

My guess is the index will touch the red line.

That line (C) is a 62% retrace of the move from A to B.

$ $ $

I released a new indicator that I call the percent down indicator. I'm not sure it works well, but you can read about it here PercentDown.html.

Be sure to read the "bear market approaching" section. It predicts the next year is going to be bumpy.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 179.85 points.
Tuesday: Up 27.73 points.
Wednesday: Down 55.99 points.
Thursday: Down 254.15 points.
Friday: Down 202.83 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 665.09 points or 3.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 219.24 points or 4.3%.
The S&P 500 index was down 76.16 points or 3.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.0% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     12.2% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
     5.8% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     14.8% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
     5.2% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     8.4% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Consumer price index8:30 TB+Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services.
Industrial production9:15 TB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Capacity utilization9:15 TB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.
Housing starts8:30 WB-Number of homes beginning construction.
Building permits8:30 WB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Minutes2:00 W?Minutes of the prior Federal Reserve meeting.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Leading indicators10:00 ThD-Summary of already known reports.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
VIX expiresWednesday
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 11/13/2015, the CPI had:

37 bearish patterns,
2 bullish patterns,
198 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 5.1%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,107  17,176  17,308  17,377  17,508 
Weekly  16,800  17,022  17,462  17,684  18,124 
Monthly  16,280  16,763  17,370  17,853  18,460 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,007  2,015  2,030  2,038  2,053 
Weekly  1,973  1,998  2,047  2,072  2,122 
Monthly  1,918  1,970  2,043  2,096  2,169 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,884  4,906  4,947  4,970  5,011 
Weekly  4,787  4,858  4,996  5,066  5,204 
Monthly  4,562  4,745  4,954  5,137  5,346 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.4%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 19.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 26.8%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 20.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 29.6%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 26.0%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
19Head-and-shoulders bottom
15Dead-cat bounce
13Triangle, symmetrical
11Broadening top
9Head-and-shoulders top
8Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Pennant
6Triple top
6Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
6Flag

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. Internet
2. Furn/Home Furnishings2. Furn/Home Furnishings
3. Insurance (Life)3. Insurance (Life)
4. Computer Software and Svcs4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
50. Natural Gas (Diversified)50. Metals and Mining (Div.)
51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing51. Natural Gas (Diversified)
52. Petroleum (Producing)52. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
53. Retail (Special Lines)53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 11/13/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 13 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 576 stocks searched, or 2.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADTNBroadening top, right-angled and descending      08/24/201511/09/2015Telecom. Equipment
CELGPipe top      10/26/201511/02/2015Biotechnology
CRHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/23/201511/06/2015Cement and Aggregates
^DJTDiamond top      10/14/201511/06/2015None
DHIBroadening top      10/06/201511/11/2015Homebuilding
ICONDead-cat bounce      11/06/201511/06/2015Shoe
LAWSTriangle, symmetrical      10/08/201511/12/2015Metal Fabricating
LXUDead-cat bounce      11/06/201511/06/2015Building Materials
MDTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/03/201511/11/2015Medical Supplies
MWDead-cat bounce      11/06/201511/06/2015Retail (Special Lines)
PRANTriangle, descending      10/14/201511/12/2015Biotechnology
SUNEDead-cat bounce      11/10/201511/10/2015Semiconductor
UILBroadening top      10/16/201511/09/2015Electric Utility (East)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 11/05/2015 and 11/12/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 294 out of 568
11/12/15 close: $15.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.18 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.36%
Volume: 239,200 shares. 3 month avg: 424,014 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 11/09/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Celgene Corp (CELG)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 236 out of 568
11/12/15 close: $109.02
1 Month avg volatility: $3.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $119.55 or 9.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.54%
Volume: 5,377,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,593,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/26/2015 to 11/02/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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CRH plc (CRH)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 286 out of 568
11/12/15 close: $26.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $27.74 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.41%
Volume: 157,500 shares. 3 month avg: 400,260 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 10/23/2015 to 11/06/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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DJ 20 Transportation (^DJT)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
11/12/15 close: $8,059.54
1 Month avg volatility: $112.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8,391.86 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.82%
Volume: 14,757,600 shares. 3 month avg: 19,068,498 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 10/14/2015 to 11/06/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Horton, D.R. Inc. (DHI)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 27 out of 568
11/12/15 close: $30.99
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.97 or 9.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 22.54%
Volume: 5,929,700 shares. 3 month avg: 6,549,802 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 10/06/2015 to 11/11/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Iconix Brand Group Inc. (ICON)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 568
11/12/15 close: $7.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.18 or 26.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -79.08%
Volume: 2,316,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,896,577 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 11/06/2015 to 11/06/2015

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Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 51 out of 568
11/12/15 close: $26.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.45 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.86%
Volume: 23,800 shares. 3 month avg: 37,831 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/08/2015 to 11/12/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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LSB Industries Inc (LXU)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 568 out of 568
11/12/15 close: $6.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.77 or 39.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -80.15%
Volume: 1,333,300 shares. 3 month avg: 548,532 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 11/06/2015 to 11/06/2015

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Medtronic Inc (MDT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 193 out of 568
11/12/15 close: $74.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.89 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.78%
Volume: 5,046,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,633,362 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/03/2015 to 11/11/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Mens Warehouse (MW)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 561 out of 568
11/12/15 close: $19.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.66 or 16.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -54.77%
Volume: 2,930,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,689,828 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 11/06/2015 to 11/06/2015

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Prana Biotechnology Limited (PRAN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 495 out of 568
11/12/15 close: $0.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.06. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $0.98 or 18.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -49.39%
Volume: 66,300 shares. 3 month avg: 130,549 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 10/14/2015 to 11/12/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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SunEdison (SUNE)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 567 out of 568
11/12/15 close: $4.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.54 or 44.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -76.73%
Volume: 103,100,200 shares. 3 month avg: 38,228,648 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 11/10/2015 to 11/10/2015

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UIL Holdings Corp (UIL)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 155 out of 568
11/12/15 close: $49.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $52.60 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.76%
Volume: 213,600 shares. 3 month avg: 188,368 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 10/16/2015 to 11/09/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Thursday 11/12/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.3% or -16.22 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 474 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 251 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 223 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/162 or 59.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/67 or 47.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The long red line marks support. The current price seems to be bouncing off that line, sometimes dipping below and sometimes not.

A head-and-shoulders top appears as LHR. It confirms as a valid pattern when the index closes below the green neckline.

The index could drop to the lower support line, shown in blue. That support is thin, I think, so I would expect the index to drop even further. Of course, the index could rise, too, bouncing off support. Take your pick.

$ $ $

I powered down my other computer, my main development machine that has been crashing during hibernate, and it tried to reboot, then turn itself off then reboot and kept doing that, so I just switched off the power. Looks like the machine may be dying now instead of just having a cold.

Yahoo!finance put up a new beta site and lots of people complained about it. Apparently, they replaced it with the old site, so I was able to update my quotes without too much of a fuss. I wish they'd just leave the site alone. It's a terrific site when they don't try to improve it. That's another way with saying I don't like change.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,316.48    
 Monthly S1  4,691.75  375.27   
 Monthly Pivot  4,927.61  235.86   
 Weekly S2  4,995.32  67.71   
 Weekly S1  5,031.17  35.85   
 Daily S2  5,037.12  5.95   
 Daily S1  5,052.07  14.95   
 Low  5,066.68  14.61   
 Close  5,067.02  0.34   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  5,081.63  14.61   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,083.68  2.05   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,088.94  5.25   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,094.19  5.25   
 Daily R1  5,096.58  2.39   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  5,097.32  0.74   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Open  5,098.13  0.81   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  5,111.19  13.06   
 Daily R2  5,126.14  14.95   
 Weekly R1  5,133.17  7.03   
 Weekly R2  5,199.32  66.15   
 Monthly R1  5,302.88  103.56   
 Monthly R2  5,538.74  235.86   

Wednesday 11/11/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: Bearish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The picture shows the index is following the indicator lower, as the red lines indicate.

This is a sign of convergence, not divergence. Of course, I've been waiting for the index to retrace a portion of its gains and it has finally begun. The indicator has shown bearish divergence for weeks, too, starting with the peak in October.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

Notice the bearish signal of a day ago. Currently, though, the indicator is neutral (white bands).

$ $ $

My computer started crashing again during the hibernate mode. So I won't use hibernate any more. That fixes the symptom but not the problem. I re-scanned the hard drive again and optimized it without problem. I'm not about to reformat the thing and reinstall the software I have on it.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 11/10/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -1.0% or -179.85 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 363 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 176 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 187 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 51.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 100/171 or 58.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/51 or 52.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index has formed a cloud bank of overhead resistance shown by the top two maroon lines. The third red line near 17,700 is a support zone that should help the index should it drop down there.

My guess is it won't be needed tomorrow. I expect the upward move to continue after a slight pause. The pause matches the one shown here in green. The left green circle matches the one on the right.

The index hit that resistance and turned down. I think this is just a momentary retrace in an upward trend. Of course, local and world events will shape tomorrow's trading, so check the news before trading.

$ $ $

Picture of my birdhouse.

I finished my bird house this weekend (pictured on the right). I had to redo the shingles because the first try was awful.

In the earlier version, I covered the nails with black tar and it made the roof look like it had measles or something. A remnant of that is over the garage.

This sucker weighs about 30 or 40 pounds. If the weather is nice, I'll cement the pole in place to hold it this weekend and build a column around that pole, too.

$ $ $

I also reloaded the windows operating system on my sick computer. So far, after about dozen times going into hibernation, it's worked. Before, it had gotten so bad that every hibernate attempt crashed. Now, at least, it seems to be working.

I do have a backup computer but still want to look at getting a Windows 7 Professional system to run a win XP simulator so I won't have to rewrite my software and update my development tools for more years.

If the win 7 pro system works, I'll probably buy a second one and just put it in storage.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,276.47    
 Monthly S1  16,503.48  1,227.00   
 Monthly Pivot  17,240.66  737.19   
 Weekly S2  17,464.95  224.29   
 Daily S2  17,533.35  68.39   
 Weekly S1  17,597.72  64.37   
 Daily S1  17,631.91  34.20   
 Low  17,667.78  35.87   
 Close  17,730.48  62.70   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,756.79  26.30   
 Daily Pivot  17,766.35  9.56   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,784.28  17.93   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  17,787.78  3.50   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,811.77  23.99   
 Daily R1  17,864.91  53.14   
 Open  17,900.78  35.87   
 High  17,900.78  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  17,920.55  19.77   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  17,999.35  78.80   
 Weekly R2  18,110.61  111.27   
 Monthly R1  18,467.67  357.05   
 Monthly R2  19,204.85  737.19   

Monday 11/9/15. A Long Look at Gold (GLD)

Picture of GLD monthly scale.

Several people in the last few weeks have asked about the direction of gold. When Michael Clarke asked a few days ago, I blew him off.

As an apology, and replacing my normal Monday post, let's look at gold in the form of the exchange traded fund, GLD.

Since I'm not a lover of gold, meaning I don't follow it closely, I find it valuable to drill down, staring with the longer term chart.

This chart (on the right) is a picture of the ETF on the monthly scale.

You'll notice that GLD kept moving higher in the early years and peaked in 2011. It's been tumbling ever since.

However, a falling wedge appears within the two converging red lines.

Falling wedges break out upward 68% of the time.

Picture of GLD weekly scale.

The chart on the right is GLD on the weekly scale.

This is the falling wedge zoomed in.

Notice that on this chart the fund has broken out downward from the chart pattern.

A downward breakout is bearish. Yes, it could reverse and close above the top of the wedge, busting it, but that would likely take years (it would have to climb above the 2013 level in the prior chart).

A pullback has occurred and brought the fund back into the wedge. But then it resumed its breakout direction: down.

The up and down motion after a downward breakout is typical. And bearish.

 

Picture of GLD daily scale.

This is GLD on the daily scale.

I show the strong move down in the last two weeks. That has likely inflamed gold bugs that listen to people selling the stuff that gold is going to $5,000 an ounce. I'm making that up, but clearly someone is pushing gold.

I recall hearing ads about "gold experts predicting a rise to $x,000" an ounce when it peaked in 2011. That was when people started raiding their jewelry boxes and selling their gold jewelry, letting others melt it down into bullion.

I told an investment advisor that handled some family money to sell any holdings in gold. I was right, too.

Whenever you hear people melting down their jewelry then you're near a top in gold. Whenever you hear ads asking you to sell to them your gold, then you're near a top.

When was the last time you heard one of those ads?

What I find interesting about these charts, is that gold has been dropping for years. I don't see any end in sight, but someone has been effective in piquing investor's interest, based on the emails I've received.

The red line in the chart shows support. The fund might find it there. If not, look for the fund to continue down.

My expectation is that a trend in motion tends to stay in motion and you'll see 90-95 in the coming months. I could be wrong, of course, but someone is bullish about gold, perhaps to line his own pockets.

Why take a chance? You can do better elsewhere.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 11/6/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

They are expecting storms (perhaps tornados) this evening so I am updating this before the market close. It does not include Thursday's market data.

I wrote the above about an hour ago. I was sitting in my chair, reading a book when I thought I heard the tornado siren going off. The storm had passed, a brief bit of heavy rain, some wind. No big deal.

I turned on the TV and listened to the broadcast of a tornado and then they started naming streets. Wow. They named those surrounding me.

Apparently, the tornado touched down about 5 miles from me and then lifted off and flew over my house.

And the warning came about 5 minutes after it happened.

$ $ $

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 576 stocks searched, or 3.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 12 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ANFTriangle, symmetrical      09/11/201511/02/2015Apparel
ALKSFlag      11/02/201511/04/2015Drug
APOGTriangle, symmetrical      10/27/201511/04/2015Building Materials
AVPDead-cat bounce      11/04/201511/04/2015Toiletries/Cosmetics
BECNDiamond top      08/10/201510/30/2015Retail Building Supply
CKPDead-cat bounce      11/04/201511/04/2015Precision Instrument
CINFPennant      10/29/201511/04/2015Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EXPDHead-and-shoulders top      10/15/201511/02/2015Air Transport
FFGTriangle, ascending      10/09/201511/03/2015Insurance (Life)
FISBroadening top      09/01/201511/04/2015Computer Software and Svcs
HSCTriangle, symmetrical      09/16/201510/30/2015Diversified Co.
HHSDead-cat bounce      11/04/201511/04/2015Advertising
LGTriangle, symmetrical      10/19/201511/04/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
MLMBroadening bottom      10/19/201511/04/2015Cement and Aggregates
MOSBroadening top      10/15/201511/03/2015Chemical (Diversified)
OTEXBroadening top      09/02/201511/04/2015E-Commerce
PTENPipe bottom      10/19/201510/26/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
POLPipe bottom      10/19/201510/26/2015Chemical (Specialty)
RESBroadening top      10/19/201511/03/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TOLTriangle, descending      10/13/201511/04/2015Homebuilding
USOPipe bottom      10/19/201510/26/2015Petroleum (Producing)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 10/29/2015 and 11/05/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abercrombie and Fitch Co. (ANF)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 154 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $22.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.92 or 12.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.84%
Volume: 2,706,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,860,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/11/2015 to 11/02/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Alkermes (ALKS)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 19 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $72.01
1 Month avg volatility: $3.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.71 or 11.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.97%
Volume: 956,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,090,885 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 11/02/2015 to 11/04/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Apogee Enterprises (APOG)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 318 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $49.82
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.59 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.58%
Volume: 155,900 shares. 3 month avg: 295,309 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/27/2015 to 11/04/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Avon Products (AVP)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 559 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $3.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.78 or 19.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -63.26%
Volume: 24,940,100 shares. 3 month avg: 10,080,323 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 11/04/2015 to 11/04/2015

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Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 29 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $36.87
1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.03 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 32.63%
Volume: 329,200 shares. 3 month avg: 344,005 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 10/30/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Checkpoint Systems (CKP)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 548 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $5.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.34 or 27.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -56.52%
Volume: 1,394,600 shares. 3 month avg: 345,749 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 11/04/2015 to 11/04/2015

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Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 45 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $60.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.67 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.65%
Volume: 489,800 shares. 3 month avg: 745,554 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 10/29/2015 to 11/04/2015
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 145 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $49.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.45 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.02%
Volume: 2,061,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,865,038 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 10/15/2015 to 11/02/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 87 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $65.86
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.72 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.49%
Volume: 73,600 shares. 3 month avg: 42,512 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 10/09/2015 to 11/03/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Fidelity National Information Svcs (FIS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 172 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $65.54
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $70.51 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.37%
Volume: 5,650,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,691,489 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 09/01/2015 to 11/04/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 521 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $10.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.81 or 10.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -42.14%
Volume: 601,400 shares. 3 month avg: 949,508 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/16/2015 to 10/30/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Harte-Hanks Inc (HHS)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 551 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $3.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.18 or 11.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -53.49%
Volume: 468,200 shares. 3 month avg: 319,043 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 11/04/2015 to 11/04/2015

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Laclede Group (LG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 74 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $58.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.60 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.62%
Volume: 278,800 shares. 3 month avg: 285,383 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/19/2015 to 11/04/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Martin Marietta Materials, Inc (MLM)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 240 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $145.85
1 Month avg volatility: $5.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $126.78 or 13.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 32.21%
Volume: 2,169,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,033,669 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 10/19/2015 to 11/04/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Mosaic Co (MOS)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 491 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $33.38
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.95 or 16.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -26.88%
Volume: 8,159,400 shares. 3 month avg: 4,631,577 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 10/15/2015 to 11/03/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Open Text Corp (OTEX)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 304 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $47.22
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.89 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -18.95%
Volume: 295,400 shares. 3 month avg: 330,740 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 09/02/2015 to 11/04/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. (PTEN)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 484 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $16.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.28 or 13.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.60%
Volume: 7,902,900 shares. 3 month avg: 6,030,866 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 10/19/2015 to 10/26/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Polyone Corp (POL)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 420 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $34.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.18 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.89%
Volume: 766,100 shares. 3 month avg: 601,622 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 10/19/2015 to 10/26/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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RPC Inc (RES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 488 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $12.06
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.98 or 15.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.52%
Volume: 2,236,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,201,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 10/19/2015 to 11/03/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Toll Brothers (TOL)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 211 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $35.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.09 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.38%
Volume: 1,110,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,527,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 10/13/2015 to 11/04/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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United States Oil (USO)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 506 out of 568
11/4/15 close: $14.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.86 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -27.06%
Volume: 25,738,900 shares. 3 month avg: 30,054,155 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 10/19/2015 to 10/26/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 11/5/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -2.65 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 541 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 295 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 246 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/161 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/67 or 47.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I don't see much going on in this chart.

There is a double bottom at 1, 2. That confirmed as a valid chart pattern at 3, when the index closed above the peak between the two bottoms.

Oddly, the index faded near the end of the session, which I interpret as a bearish sign for Thursday's close. The index could close lower.

$ $ $

For the last three weekends, I've been working on a bird house as a replica of my own home. This weekend, I put on the roof and then botched it by using roofing cement on the nail heads. It looked as if the shingles had measles. So I ripped it off.

Late this afternoon, I shingled it in the traditional manner and it turned out quite nice. I wish I had used the traditional approach the first time.

Maybe tomorrow I'll do some painting on the thing. I want to put on another coat and then add the trim paint. After that, it'll be finished.

I bought a pole on which to mount the house, but want to make a column to support it (around the pole). If the weather remains good, I'll tackle that soon.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,299.78    
 Monthly S1  4,721.13  421.35   
 Monthly Pivot  4,908.41  187.28   
 Weekly S2  4,995.79  87.38   
 Weekly S1  5,069.14  73.34   
 Weekly Pivot  5,082.41  13.28   
 Daily S2  5,102.82  20.41   
 Daily S1  5,122.65  19.83   
 Low  5,122.78  0.13   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,137.98  15.20   
 Close  5,142.48  4.50   
 Daily Pivot  5,142.61  0.13   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,142.67  0.06   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,147.37  4.70   
 Open  5,155.62  8.25   
 Weekly R1  5,155.76  0.14   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  5,162.44  6.68   
 High  5,162.57  0.13   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R2  5,169.03  6.46   
 Daily R2  5,182.40  13.37   
 Monthly R1  5,329.76  147.36   
 Monthly R2  5,517.04  187.28   

Wednesday 11/4/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bearish divergence that I saw in the indicator as recently as last week has faded. Replacing it is an advancing indicator and an continually up trending index.

A glance at the chart shows that the index is at overhead resistance setup by the horizontal movement going back to January. The index could continue moving up, but the odds suggest it will stop. Just don't bet on when that might happen.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

We dipped into the neutral zone in the white area. On both sides of that are bands of green, bullish bands.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 11/3/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.9% or 165.22 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 489 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 287 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 202 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 99/170 or 58.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/51 or 52.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

This is one of those days when the charts don't reveal what is going to happen. So the safest course is to assume the current trend will continue.

Look at the chart. I drew two red lines showing the up trend. Notice that between those two lines the index tumbled. The first line is about 2 days and a stumble. If the trend continues, then look for another up day before a retrace.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,332.77    
 Monthly S1  16,580.77  1,247.99   
 Monthly Pivot  17,190.36  609.60   
 Weekly S2  17,463.71  273.34   
 Daily S2  17,585.68  121.97   
 Weekly S1  17,646.23  60.55   
 Low  17,655.02  8.79   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Open  17,672.62  17.60   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  17,707.22  34.60   
 Weekly Pivot  17,723.10  15.88   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,727.94  4.84   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,750.46  22.53   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,772.98  22.52   
 Daily Pivot  17,776.56  3.58   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  17,828.76  52.20   
 High  17,845.90  17.14   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  17,898.10  52.20   
 Weekly R1  17,905.62  7.52   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  17,967.44  61.82   
 Weekly R2  17,982.49  15.05   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  18,438.36  455.87   
 Monthly R2  19,047.95  609.60   

Monday 11/2/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

The red lines outline a broadening top pattern.

How does that help us determine future market direction?

Answer: It doesn't.

This chart pattern, according to statistics I from my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition, shows that the breakout direction is random: 50.3% breakout downward.

Since the Dow industrials and Nasdaq Composite have been on a tear upward nearly all month. They are overbought and in need of a retrace.

When, not if, that happens, the transports will drop, too, in sympathy. That suggests to anticipate a downward breakout.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 23.65 points.
Tuesday: Down 41.62 points.
Wednesday: Up 198.09 points.
Thursday: Down 23.72 points.
Friday: Down 92.26 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 16.84 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 21.89 points or 0.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 4.21 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.7% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     14.9% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
     3.4% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     17.7% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
     2.6% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     11.4% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Construction spending10:00 MDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Factory orders10:00 TD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
Auto & truck sales5:00? TC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Trade balance8:30 WC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Productivity & costs8:30 ThD+Cost of producing a unit of output.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Consumer credit3:00 FD-Measures auto, credit card and other debt.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 10/30/2015, the CPI had:

3 bearish patterns,
8 bullish patterns,
231 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 72.7%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,572  17,618  17,709  17,755  17,846 
Weekly  17,409  17,536  17,668  17,795  17,927 
Monthly  15,278  16,471  17,135  18,328  18,993 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,069  2,074  2,084  2,089  2,099 
Weekly  2,042  2,061  2,078  2,096  2,113 
Monthly  1,793  1,936  2,015  2,158  2,238 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,033  5,043  5,064  5,075  5,096 
Weekly  4,966  5,010  5,053  5,097  5,139 
Monthly  4,270  4,662  4,879  5,271  5,487 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 5 weeks up 9.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 52.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 5 weeks up 9.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 52.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 5 weeks up 7.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 47.7%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bearish.
Nasdaq Composite: bearish.
S&P 500 Index: bearish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
14Triangle, symmetrical
12Head-and-shoulders bottom
12Pipe top
11Broadening bottom
9Dead-cat bounce
6Pennant
6Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
6Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
5Flag
5Pipe bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. Air Transport
2. Furn/Home Furnishings2. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
3. Computer Software and Svcs3. Insurance (Diversified)
4. Insurance (Life)4. Homebuilding
5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)5. Electric Utility (Central)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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