Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 12/06/2019
  Indus: 28,015 +337.27 +1.2%  
  Trans: 10,709 +133.66 +1.3%  
  Utils: 855 -1.82 -0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 8,657 +86.13 +1.0%  
  S&P 500: 3,146 +28.48 +0.9%  
YTD
 +20.1%  
 +16.8%  
 +19.9%  
 +30.5%  
 +25.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/29/2019  
  Up arrow28,600 or 27,600 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,500 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow875 or 830 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow8,900 or 8,400 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow3,250 or 3,075 by 12/15/2019
As of 12/06/2019
  Indus: 28,015 +337.27 +1.2%  
  Trans: 10,709 +133.66 +1.3%  
  Utils: 855 -1.82 -0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 8,657 +86.13 +1.0%  
  S&P 500: 3,146 +28.48 +0.9%  
YTD
 +20.1%  
 +16.8%  
 +19.9%  
 +30.5%  
 +25.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/29/2019  
  Up arrow28,600 or 27,600 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,500 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow875 or 830 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow8,900 or 8,400 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow3,250 or 3,075 by 12/15/2019

 

May 2019 Headlines

Archives


Friday 5/31/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 594 stocks searched, or 2.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ANFDead-cat bounce      05/29/201905/29/2019Apparel
ATRTriangle, symmetrical      05/06/201905/30/2019Packaging and Container
BRCDiamond bottom      05/15/201905/30/2019Chemical (Diversified)
CSODDiamond bottom      04/23/201905/30/2019E-Commerce
EVHDead-cat bounce      05/29/201905/29/2019Healthcare Information
EXCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/13/201905/24/2019Electric Utility (East)
FLIRFalling wedge      05/13/201905/30/2019Aerospace/Defense
HQYTriangle, symmetrical      04/16/201905/27/2019Healthcare Information
INFNDiamond bottom      05/10/201905/30/2019Telecom. Equipment
LHTriangle, ascending      05/03/201905/27/2019Medical Services
MDCTriangle, symmetrical      05/03/201905/29/2019Homebuilding
OXMFalling wedge      05/14/201905/30/2019Apparel
PKEBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      04/01/201905/28/2019Chemical (Specialty)
TMOTriangle, symmetrical      04/12/201905/30/2019Precision Instrument

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/23/2019 and 05/30/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abercrombie and Fitch Co. (ANF)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 259 out of 589
5/30/19 close: $17.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.04 or 14.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -12.72%
Volume: 9,935,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,821,334 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/29/2019 to 05/29/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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AptarGroup Inc (ATR)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 148 out of 589
5/30/19 close: $113.51
1 Month avg volatility: $1.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $109.65 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.67%
Volume: 128,700 shares. 3 month avg: 241,254 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/06/2019 to 05/30/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Brady Corp (BRC)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 147 out of 589
5/30/19 close: $46.72
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.01 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.50%
Volume: 181,600 shares. 3 month avg: 204,463 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 05/15/2019 to 05/30/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Cornerstone OnDemand Inc (CSOD)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 262 out of 589
5/30/19 close: $54.05
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.20 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.18%
Volume: 225,700 shares. 3 month avg: 697,858 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 04/23/2019 to 05/30/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Evolent Health, Inc (EVH)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 581 out of 589
5/30/19 close: $10.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.48 or 16.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -46.42%
Volume: 2,376,500 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/29/2019 to 05/29/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Exelon Corp. (EXC)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 217 out of 589
5/30/19 close: $48.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.89 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.52%
Volume: 3,271,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,244,875 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/13/2019 to 05/24/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 202 out of 589
5/30/19 close: $48.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.52 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.08%
Volume: 373,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,165,460 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 05/13/2019 to 05/30/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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HealthEquity, Inc (HQY)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 501 out of 589
5/30/19 close: $67.35
1 Month avg volatility: $2.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.52 or 8.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.91%
Volume: 546,900 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/16/2019 to 05/27/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 529 out of 589
5/30/19 close: $3.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.79 or 13.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.30%
Volume: 1,044,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,624,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 05/10/2019 to 05/30/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/09/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/08/2019 and a 38% chance by 11/07/2019.
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Labratory Corp of America (LH)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 308 out of 589
5/30/19 close: $163.37
1 Month avg volatility: $3.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $154.70 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 29.29%
Volume: 405,900 shares. 3 month avg: 674,168 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/03/2019 to 05/27/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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MDC Holdings Inc. (MDC)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 209 out of 589
5/30/19 close: $31.73
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.80 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.88%
Volume: 498,600 shares. 3 month avg: 498,709 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/03/2019 to 05/29/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Oxford Industries (OXM)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 410 out of 589
5/30/19 close: $72.70
1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.34 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.34%
Volume: 155,400 shares. 3 month avg: 144,562 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 05/14/2019 to 05/30/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Park Electrochemical (PKE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 589
5/30/19 close: $15.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.40 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.50%
Volume: 91,000 shares. 3 month avg: 70,862 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 04/01/2019 to 05/28/2019
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Thermo Electron Corp (TMO)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 165 out of 589
5/30/19 close: $267.98
1 Month avg volatility: $5.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $253.64 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.75%
Volume: 771,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,572,766 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/12/2019 to 05/30/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 5/30/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.8% or -60.04 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 251 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 124 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 127 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 164/300 or 54.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 51/101 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I'm not a big fan of Elliott wave, but it says cycles tend to move in a 5 wave, 3 wave sequence. Here I show a motive wave lower. That's three down waves and two counter waves, for five waves total.

What should follow is an ABC correction. That is, two up waves and one counter wave in between.

Yet on the daily scale, it looks as if the markets will continue to drop. The Dow industrials, for example, have dropped below what I consider a significant support layer. So we'll have to see what happens on Thursday.

The two green lines on the right outline what appears to be an ascending triangle, except that there's not enough trendline touches (two of each side). Nevertheless, the pattern is bullish. Maybe it represents an intraday bottom.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,178.81    
 Monthly S1  7,363.06  184.25   
 Weekly S2  7,426.57  63.51   
 Daily S2  7,466.95  40.38   
 Weekly S1  7,486.94  19.99   
 Low  7,503.94  17.00   
 Daily S1  7,507.13  3.19   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,533.42  26.29   
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,542.52  9.11   
 Daily Pivot  7,544.12  1.60   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  7,547.31  3.19   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,551.63  4.32   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  7,553.02  1.39   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  7,581.11  28.09   
 Daily R1  7,584.30  3.19   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  7,621.29  36.99   
 Weekly Pivot  7,645.69  24.40   
 Weekly R1  7,706.06  60.37   
 Monthly Pivot  7,769.57  63.51   
 Weekly R2  7,864.81  95.24   
 Monthly R1  7,953.82  89.01   
 Monthly R2  8,360.33  406.51   

Wednesday 5/22/19. Indicators: Market Weakness with Support?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The thin red bar on the far right of the chart is the last signal change: to bearish.

It remains in place, thanks in part to today's (Tuesday's) drop in the indices.

Notice that the thin blue line has dropped, too. The good news is that the line is at or near 0, which is the worst it can get. So it's only upward from here (whenever I've written that, the CPI tends to bobble up and down, hovering just above 0. Go figure).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 46% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 42%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 492 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines this week have tumbled which is no surprise given that the indices also moved lower.

How low will they go? I can only guess. If you use your mind to draw a horizontal line across the end of the red line, you'll see that prior valleys have touched that and rebounded.

That suggests we'll see the market firm up from here. But of course, that's if Trump doesn't give involved in world affairs.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/28/19. Diamond Bottom Quiz

I forgot to post a quiz which I wrote on Friday. Sorry about that. Here it is. It's on diamond bottoms.

-- Thomas Bulkowski


Monday 5/27/19. ThePatternSite Tips

Picture of my dog.

Today is a market holiday, but I wanted to pass along a few links to help you better use and support ThePatternSite.com.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images either along the left side or at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code. So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first, click on a book image, and spend like crazy! The referral doesn't cost you any money and it supports this site.
  2. You can click on an ad. Please don't click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site. Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of it.

-- Thomas Bulkowski


Friday 5/24/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 591 stocks searched, or 2.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACNPipe bottom      05/06/201905/13/2019IT Services
BOOTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/13/201905/20/2019Shoe
CLXTriple bottom      05/02/201905/20/2019Household Products
DHRDiamond top      05/09/201905/23/2019Precision Instrument
^DJUBroadening top      04/05/201905/20/2019None
HQYTriangle, symmetrical      04/16/201905/22/2019Healthcare Information
IBKRHead-and-shoulders top      04/17/201905/20/2019Securities Brokerage
LHTriangle, ascending      05/03/201905/23/2019Medical Services
MDSOTriangle, symmetrical      05/01/201905/23/2019Healthcare Information
NBRDead-cat bounce      05/23/201905/23/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
OMCBump-and-run reversal, top      03/25/201905/17/2019Advertising
PICOTriangle, symmetrical      05/02/201905/22/2019Diversified Co.
TMOTriple bottom      05/13/201905/20/2019Precision Instrument
WMTTriangle, ascending      02/01/201905/23/2019Retail Store
IHITriangle, symmetrical      05/10/201905/23/2019Medical Supplies

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/16/2019 and 05/23/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accenture plc (ACN)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 148 out of 585
5/23/19 close: $178.27
1 Month avg volatility: $2.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $171.43 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.42%
Volume: 1,250,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,995,040 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/06/2019 to 05/13/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 13 out of 585
5/23/19 close: $29.99
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.00 or 10.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 76.10%
Volume: 1,192,500 shares. 3 month avg: 434,749 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/13/2019 to 05/20/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Clorox Co, The (CLX)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 403 out of 585
5/23/19 close: $150.88
1 Month avg volatility: $2.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $143.65 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.11%
Volume: 988,600 shares. 3 month avg: 971,306 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 05/02/2019 to 05/20/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Danaher Corp (DHR)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 43 out of 585
5/23/19 close: $131.63
1 Month avg volatility: $2.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $135.93 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 27.65%
Volume: 1,664,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,378,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 05/09/2019 to 05/23/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
5/23/19 close: $807.22
1 Month avg volatility: $9.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $825.61 or 2.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.23%
Volume: 46,463,600 shares. 3 month avg: 47,739,305 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/05/2019 to 05/20/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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HealthEquity, Inc (HQY)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 466 out of 585
5/23/19 close: $67.85
1 Month avg volatility: $2.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.03 or 8.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.75%
Volume: 444,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/16/2019 to 05/22/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 286 out of 585
5/23/19 close: $53.86
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $57.22 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.45%
Volume: 400,700 shares. 3 month avg: 658,995 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/17/2019 to 05/20/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Labratory Corp of America (LH)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 295 out of 585
5/23/19 close: $166.24
1 Month avg volatility: $3.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $156.56 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.56%
Volume: 763,500 shares. 3 month avg: 674,168 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/03/2019 to 05/23/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Medidata Solutions (MDSO)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 57 out of 585
5/23/19 close: $90.65
1 Month avg volatility: $3.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $82.62 or 8.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 34.46%
Volume: 573,800 shares. 3 month avg: 565,226 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/01/2019 to 05/23/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Nabors Industries, Ltd. (NBR)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 562 out of 585
5/23/19 close: $2.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.43 or 34.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 28.00%
Volume: 24,891,300 shares. 3 month avg: 10,861,705 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/23/2019 to 05/23/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 299 out of 585
5/23/19 close: $79.19
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $81.85 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.12%
Volume: 2,290,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,548,395 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Bump-and-run reversal, top reversal pattern from 03/25/2019 to 05/17/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Pullbacks occur 62% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 78% of the time.

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PICO Holdings (PICO)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 164 out of 585
5/23/19 close: $11.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.61 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.76%
Volume: 63,300 shares. 3 month avg: 140,617 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/02/2019 to 05/22/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thermo Electron Corp (TMO)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 115 out of 585
5/23/19 close: $271.02
1 Month avg volatility: $5.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $253.75 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.10%
Volume: 1,567,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,572,766 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 05/13/2019 to 05/20/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 234 out of 585
5/23/19 close: $101.86
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $97.77 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.35%
Volume: 6,454,600 shares. 3 month avg: 9,313,488 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/01/2019 to 05/23/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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DJ US Medical devices index fund (IHI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 231 out of 585
5/23/19 close: $220.94
1 Month avg volatility: $3.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $212.84 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.58%
Volume: 259,200 shares. 3 month avg: 82,220 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/10/2019 to 05/23/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 5/23/19. Intraday Nasdaq: Falling Wedge

The index dropped by -0.4% or -34.88 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 431 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 220 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 211 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 164/299 or 54.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 51/101 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

When I first looked at this chart, I didn't see anything worth writing about (in today's price movement).

However, AB shows a chart pattern called a double bottom. That's two valleys with bottoms near the same price. The index confirms the pattern when it closes above red line C.

Looking more closely at the price pattern today, I saw a falling wedge. Now it could be my imagination because I just completed redoing the stats on falling wedges, so I see them in my sleep, too. This one qualifies, though.

Price bounces between two descending and converging trendlines until breaking through them. The breakout can be in any direction, but is upward 68% of the time. That's the case here.

Right now, the index is throwing back to the top of the pattern.

After it completes the throwback, there's a likelihood of the index resuming its upward move.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,302.52    
 Weekly S2  7,455.75  153.23   
 Monthly S1  7,526.68  70.93   
 Weekly S1  7,603.30  76.62   
 Daily S2  7,710.53  107.23   
 Daily S1  7,730.68  20.16   
 Low  7,738.35  7.67   
 Open  7,749.80  11.45   
 Close  7,750.84  1.04   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,756.68  5.84   
 Daily Pivot  7,758.51  1.83   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,762.34  3.83   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,768.00  5.66   
 Weekly Pivot  7,774.76  6.76   
 Daily R1  7,778.66  3.90   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  7,786.33  7.67   
 Daily R2  7,806.49  20.16   
 Monthly Pivot  7,851.38  44.89   
 Weekly R1  7,922.31  70.93   
 Monthly R1  8,075.54  153.23   
 Weekly R2  8,093.77  18.23   
 Monthly R2  8,400.24  306.47   

Wednesday 5/22/19. A Look At Indicators: Good News!

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Yippee! The indicator turned green as the vertical bar on the far right of the chart suggests.

Alas, it might not be real. Why? Because the signal can change for up to a week. Thus, if the market were to turn down, that green bar can move to white (neutral) or even red (bearish).

If you look at the thin blue line at the bottom of the chart, it's a rocket hot (steep upward move), suggesting this bullish move might be sustainable. That's a guess, though.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 40% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 41%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 489 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 34% on 12/24/2018.

This chart is not as bullish as the last one. The red line improved slightly and the blue line remained constant compared to a week ago.

If you look at the trend of the red line, it's not pretty. It's been moving down for three weeks now.

There is what's called a failure swing happening now (red line). The indicator makes a dip then makes a higher low, forming a weird looking W. You can see what happened in March, the two valleys. The second valley was higher than the first and the index recovered to the May peak.

We might be seeing a failure swing in the red line over the last 1.5 weeks or so, suggesting a move higher, too.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/21/19. Slider Quiz! BARR Tops

The index dropped by -0.3% or -84.1 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1047 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 492 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 555 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 53.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 187/309 or 60.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/73 or 52.1% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the bump-and-run reversal top chart pattern. Hopefully, you survived the BARR bottoms last week.

$ $ $

Falling wedge stats updated.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,392.67    
 Weekly S2  24,884.89  492.22   
 Monthly S1  25,036.29  151.39   
 Weekly S1  25,282.40  246.11   
 Daily S2  25,472.89  190.50   
 Low  25,560.55  87.66   
 Daily S1  25,576.40  15.85   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  25,620.01  43.62   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  25,633.57  13.56   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  25,655.31  21.74   
 50% Down from Intraday High  25,656.13  0.82   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  25,664.05  7.92   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  25,678.69  14.63   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  25,679.90  1.21   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  25,751.71  71.81   
 Daily R1  25,767.56  15.85   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  25,855.21  87.66   
 Monthly Pivot  25,866.12  10.91   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R1  26,017.52  151.39   
 Weekly R2  26,355.13  337.62   
 Monthly R1  26,509.74  154.60   
 Monthly R2  27,339.57  829.84   

Monday 5/20/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

The chart shows the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

A double top appears at AB and that's the only thing which is interesting in this chart.

I drew a horizontal red line across a few valleys to show where support is.

Last week, I showed a chart of where the transports might go. The image formed a head-and-shoulders top chart pattern.

The Dow could form the same structure, a three-peak pattern, only this version has two peaks on the left, a center one at AB, and a forming one off the chart to the right (that is, in the future). The right side might be a double peak, too, matching the ones on the left.

Based on the height of the two peaks on the left, it appears the right side has more room to move up this week followed by a drop. So that's what I expect...a rising price trend for a few days followed by a small drop. Then another run up and down (a second peak). After that, we'll have to see.

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 617.38 points.
Tuesday: Up 207.06 points.
Wednesday: Up 115.97 points.
Thursday: Up 214.66 points.
Friday: Down 98.68 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 178.37 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 100.66 points or 1.3%.
The S&P 500 index was down 21.87 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.5% down from the high of 26,695.96 on 04/23/2019.
     13.8% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     4.4% down from the high of 8,176.08 on 04/29/2019.
     21.0% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     3.2% down from the high of 2,954.13 on 05/01/2019.
     17.0% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 05/17/2019, the CPI had:

69 bearish patterns,
4 bullish patterns,
380 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 5.5%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,499  25,632  25,790  25,923  26,081 
Weekly  24,913  25,338  25,648  26,074  26,383 
Monthly  24,421  25,092  25,894  26,566  27,368 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,835  2,847  2,866  2,879  2,898 
Weekly  2,760  2,810  2,851  2,901  2,942 
Monthly  2,719  2,789  2,872  2,942  3,024 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,740  7,778  7,848  7,887  7,957 
Weekly  7,478  7,647  7,797  7,966  8,116 
Monthly  7,324  7,570  7,873  8,119  8,422 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 4 weeks down 1.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 21.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 11.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 22.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 13.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 26.9%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
16Pipe bottom
11Double Top, Adam and Adam
10Dead-cat bounce
10Double Top, Adam and Eve
9Double Top, Eve and Eve
8Broadening top
8Head-and-shoulders top
6Head-and-shoulders bottom
6Triple top
5Triangle, ascending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Homebuilding2. IT Services
3. IT Services3. Cement and Aggregates
4. Computer Software and Svcs4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Financial Services5. Financial Services

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/17/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 10 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 591 stocks searched, or 1.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
APOGScallop, ascending and inverted      04/11/201905/13/2019Building Materials
BSETPipe top      04/29/201905/06/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
HQYTriangle, symmetrical      04/16/201905/16/2019Healthcare Information
HPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/02/201905/10/2019Petroleum (Producing)
MDCAFlag, high and tight      03/26/201905/16/2019Advertising
MURPipe bottom      04/29/201905/06/2019Petroleum (Integrated)
NEEBroadening top      04/10/201905/16/2019Electric Utility (East)
PNWBroadening top, right-angled and descending      04/15/201905/13/2019Electric Utility (West)
RTNTriangle, symmetrical      04/25/201905/14/2019Aerospace/Defense
TJXHead-and-shoulders top      04/05/201905/10/2019Retail Store
UGIDiamond top      05/01/201905/16/2019Natural Gas (Distributor)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/09/2019 and 05/16/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Apogee Enterprises (APOG)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 235 out of 585
5/16/19 close: $40.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.37 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 35.21%
Volume: 101,100 shares. 3 month avg: 243,183 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 04/11/2019 to 05/13/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Bassett Furniture Industries Inc (BSET)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 490 out of 585
5/16/19 close: $16.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.10 or 7.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.32%
Volume: 17,000 shares. 3 month avg: 28,538 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/29/2019 to 05/06/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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HealthEquity, Inc (HQY)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 518 out of 585
5/16/19 close: $69.64
1 Month avg volatility: $3.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.48 or 10.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.75%
Volume: 515,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/16/2019 to 05/16/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Helmerich and Payne Inc. (HP)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 360 out of 585
5/16/19 close: $58.08
1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.96 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.15%
Volume: 889,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,165 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/02/2019 to 05/10/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MDC Pateners Inc (MDCA)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 75 out of 585
5/16/19 close: $3.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.77 or 15.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.67%
Volume: 634,200 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/26/2019 to 05/16/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 465 out of 585
5/16/19 close: $27.87
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.91 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.15%
Volume: 2,250,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,218,335 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/29/2019 to 05/06/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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NextEra Energy Inc (NEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 188 out of 585
5/16/19 close: $197.11
1 Month avg volatility: $2.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $203.07 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.40%
Volume: 2,116,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,582,705 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/10/2019 to 05/16/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 222 out of 585
5/16/19 close: $95.82
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $91.90 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.46%
Volume: 554,800 shares. 3 month avg: 665,203 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 04/15/2019 to 05/13/2019
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 363 out of 585
5/16/19 close: $179.44
1 Month avg volatility: $3.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $170.30 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.01%
Volume: 1,257,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,302,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/25/2019 to 05/14/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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TJX Companies Inc (TJX)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 353 out of 585
5/16/19 close: $52.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.12 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.77%
Volume: 5,239,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,406,445 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/05/2019 to 05/10/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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UGI Corp. (UGI)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 418 out of 585
5/16/19 close: $54.23
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.95 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.65%
Volume: 1,661,000 shares. 3 month avg: 686,418 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 05/01/2019 to 05/16/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Thursday 5/16/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.1% or 87.66 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 183 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 120 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 63 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 65.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 163/298 or 54.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 51/101 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index made a wonderful pattern at A to B called an inverted and ascending scallop. It repeated that pattern at BC, too, although this one isn't as well shaped. No doubt there won't be a third in the row. Why? Because too many people have recognized the pattern. Time to confound them and switch to a new pattern.

At DEF, there's a confirmed head-and-shoulders top. The pattern presaged a nice decline. One might quibble about the head (E) being formed because of an opening day gap. Yes, it looks weird, but you can't deny there's a peak at E.

What does all of this mean? My guess is that we'll see a higher close tomorrow, which also agrees with the above probabilities.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,502.45    
 Weekly S2  7,529.48  27.03   
 Daily S2  7,624.56  95.08   
 Monthly S1  7,662.30  37.74   
 Weekly S1  7,675.81  13.51   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Low  7,682.24  6.43   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Open  7,682.80  0.56   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  7,723.35  40.55   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,742.02  18.66   
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,760.48  18.46   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,778.94  18.46   
 Daily Pivot  7,781.04  2.09   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  7,822.15  41.11   
 High  7,838.72  16.57   
 Daily R1  7,879.83  41.11   
 Weekly Pivot  7,905.68  25.84   
 Monthly Pivot  7,919.19  13.51   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R2  7,937.52  18.33   
 Weekly R1  8,052.01  114.50   
 Monthly R1  8,079.04  27.03   
 Weekly R2  8,281.88  202.84   
 Monthly R2  8,335.93  54.05   

Wednesday 5/15/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The vertical red line on the far right of the chart seems firmly in place as a bearish signal.

If you look at the thin blue indicator line near the bottom of the chart, it's hovering near zero. Today, Tuesday, perked it up a bit. But if the markets tumble again, which I believe they will, the indicator will stay bearish.

If the markets rise, such as a cease fire in the China trade war, then the index will soar. My guess is both up and down markets will happen. One day Trump will say the war is coming to an end and the markets will rebound by 800 points. And another day the Chinese will impose new tariffs, sending the markets tumbling.

Of course, in a trade war, no one wins.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 41% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 35%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 489 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 34% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines took a dive from a week ago. That's not surprising because of the big market drop.

In Tom's Targets, at page top, I continue to be bullish but wonder if that's the right stance. I'll have to mull it over and see how the trade war goes leading up to June 1 when new tariffs are scheduled to apply.

It's possible that what some are saying is correct, that this is a political war, a method for Trump to appeal to his base. But it's his base that's being hurt when crop prices drop. If that's the case, then this war won't end anytime soon. And if it does end, will China really respect the agreement or carry on as usual? In other words, it could be a bumpy ride leading to the elections in 2020.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/14/19. Slider Quiz! Best Performing Pattern

The index dropped by -2.4% or -617.38 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 58 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.9% on 31 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 27 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 186/308 or 60.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/73 or 52.1% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the best performing chart pattern.

$ $ $

I updated the performance stats of triple tops.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,604.17    
 Weekly S2  24,750.63  146.46   
 Monthly S1  24,964.58  213.95   
 Daily S2  25,026.30  61.72   
 Weekly S1  25,037.81  11.51   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  25,175.65  137.84   
 Low  25,222.51  46.86   
 Close  25,324.99  102.48   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  25,354.51  29.52   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  25,371.85  17.34   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  25,395.29  23.43   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  25,436.06  40.78   
 Daily R1  25,521.20  85.14   
 Open  25,568.06  46.86   
 High  25,568.06  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  25,717.40  149.34   
 Weekly Pivot  25,757.04  39.64   
 Monthly Pivot  25,830.27  73.23   
 Weekly R1  26,044.22  213.95   
 Monthly R1  26,190.68  146.46   
 Weekly R2  26,763.45  572.77   
 Monthly R2  27,056.37  292.92   

Monday 5/13/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This is a pic of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I've taken a portion of the chart, flipped it, and pasted it back in to the right of the vertical red line.

The intent of this maneuver is to show what might happen in the future. It just struck me that what we see to the left of the red line might be the start of a head-and-shoulders top.

I show that chart pattern as a left shoulder, head, and right shoulder.

I use these price mirrors from time to time to help me gauge where price might go. It's a useful technique but not that accurate.

In this case, it might be that the transports will drop to about 9900 on news of a China trade war in the coming few weeks, but I'm not that pessimistic. I think the indices will recover this week. Either way, it's a guess.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 66.47 points.
Tuesday: Down 473.39 points.
Wednesday: Up 2.24 points.
Thursday: Down 138.97 points.
Friday: Up 114.01 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 562.58 points or 2.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 247.06 points or 3.0%.
The S&P 500 index was down 64.24 points or 2.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.8% down from the high of 26,695.96 on 04/23/2019.
     14.6% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     3.2% down from the high of 8,176.08 on 04/29/2019.
     22.6% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     2.5% down from the high of 2,954.13 on 05/01/2019.
     17.9% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 05/10/2019, the CPI had:

18 bearish patterns,
16 bullish patterns,
203 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 47.1%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,261  25,602  25,811  26,151  26,360 
Weekly  24,956  25,449  25,963  26,456  26,969 
Monthly  24,810  25,376  26,036  26,602  27,262 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,800  2,841  2,866  2,907  2,932 
Weekly  2,769  2,825  2,881  2,937  2,993 
Monthly  2,758  2,820  2,887  2,949  3,016 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,685  7,801  7,875  7,991  8,065 
Weekly  7,561  7,739  7,937  8,115  8,313 
Monthly  7,534  7,725  7,951  8,142  8,368 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks down 7.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 21.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 25.3%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 22.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 26.8%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 26.9%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
12Pipe bottom
10Dead-cat bounce
9Head-and-shoulders top
9Double Top, Adam and Adam
8Broadening top
8Triple top
8Double Top, Adam and Eve
6Head-and-shoulders bottom
6Diamond top
6Rising wedge

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. IT Services2. Cement and Aggregates
3. Cement and Aggregates3. Computer Software and Svcs
4. Computer Software and Svcs4. Financial Services
5. Financial Services5. Packaging and Container

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/10/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 24 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 591 stocks searched, or 4.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 12 bearish ones with any remaining (9) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
DDDDead-cat bounce      05/08/201905/08/2019Electronics
AEISDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/25/201905/03/2019Semiconductor
BRCBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      04/17/201905/09/2019Chemical (Diversified)
BMYPennant      05/03/201905/09/2019Drug
CNPDouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/26/201905/06/2019Electric Utility (Central)
CTSHDead-cat bounce      05/03/201905/03/2019IT Services
CRHDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/18/201905/03/2019Cement and Aggregates
ITTriple top      04/16/201905/06/2019Information Services
INFNDead-cat bounce      05/09/201905/09/2019Telecom. Equipment
ITGRPipe bottom      04/22/201904/29/2019Electronics
NVTADead-cat bounce      05/08/201905/08/2019Medical Services
KSSBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      03/06/201905/09/2019Retail Store
LBDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/29/201905/03/2019Apparel
LMTTriangle, ascending      04/23/201905/08/2019Aerospace/Defense
MYLDead-cat bounce      05/07/201905/07/2019Drug
MYGNDead-cat bounce      05/08/201905/08/2019Biotechnology
^IXICDouble Top, Eve and Eve      04/29/201905/03/2019None
NWPXDiamond bottom      04/29/201905/08/2019Building Materials
PANWBroadening top, right-angled and descending      03/18/201905/09/2019Computer Software and Svcs
PPLDiamond bottom      04/22/201905/07/2019Electric Utility (East)
RLDiamond top      04/18/201905/03/2019Apparel
SIGIDiamond top      04/29/201905/09/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
STMPDead-cat bounce      05/09/201905/09/2019Internet
SRDXBroadening bottom      04/23/201905/09/2019Medical Supplies
TPRDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      04/23/201905/06/2019Apparel

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/02/2019 and 05/09/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
3D Systems (DDD)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 561 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $8.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.23 or 9.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -17.40%
Volume: 4,971,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,031,971 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/08/2019 to 05/08/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 117 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $51.36
1 Month avg volatility: $1.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $54.84 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.64%
Volume: 379,600 shares. 3 month avg: 447,252 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/25/2019 to 05/03/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Brady Corp (BRC)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 103 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $48.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $50.46 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.85%
Volume: 176,000 shares. 3 month avg: 204,463 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 04/17/2019 to 05/09/2019
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 454 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $47.23
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.00 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.14%
Volume: 13,355,100 shares. 3 month avg: 5,378,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 05/03/2019 to 05/09/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 251 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $29.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.32 or 7.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.61%
Volume: 9,882,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,845,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 03/26/2019 to 05/06/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (CTSH)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 502 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $59.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $62.46 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.90%
Volume: 9,167,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,250,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/03/2019 to 05/03/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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CRH plc (CRH)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 198 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $32.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.37 or 2.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.57%
Volume: 461,300 shares. 3 month avg: 546,094 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 04/18/2019 to 05/03/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Gartner Inc (IT)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 222 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $152.97
1 Month avg volatility: $2.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $159.04 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.66%
Volume: 502,000 shares. 3 month avg: 564,655 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 04/16/2019 to 05/06/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 523 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $3.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.13 or 27.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -18.80%
Volume: 15,665,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,624,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/09/2019 to 05/09/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Integer Holdings Corp (ITGR)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 479 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $76.53
1 Month avg volatility: $2.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.31 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.35%
Volume: 314,900 shares. 3 month avg: 175,968 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/22/2019 to 04/29/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Invitae Corp (NVTA)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 20 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $19.47
1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.71 or 16.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 76.04%
Volume: 3,333,300 shares. 3 month avg: 321,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/08/2019 to 05/08/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Kohls Corporation (KSS)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 492 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $68.37
1 Month avg volatility: $1.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $72.51 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.06%
Volume: 3,509,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,163,043 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 03/06/2019 to 05/09/2019
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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L Brands, Inc. (LB)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 544 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $24.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25.84 or 6.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.53%
Volume: 3,051,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,494,122 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 04/29/2019 to 05/03/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 166 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $339.36
1 Month avg volatility: $5.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $321.49 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 29.61%
Volume: 1,496,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,022,062 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 04/23/2019 to 05/08/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Mylan Laboratories Inc. (MYL)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 560 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $22.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.99 or 9.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.93%
Volume: 14,266,400 shares. 3 month avg: 6,554,668 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/07/2019 to 05/07/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Myriad Genetics Inc (MYGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 494 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $27.69
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.21 or 9.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.75%
Volume: 1,422,100 shares. 3 month avg: 906,888 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/08/2019 to 05/08/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
5/9/19 close: $7,910.59
1 Month avg volatility: $77.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8,085.38 or 2.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.22%
Volume: 0 shares. Could not calculate the 3 month avg volume.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 04/29/2019 to 05/03/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Northwest Pipe Co (NWPX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 27 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $24.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.47 or 10.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.26%
Volume: 39,800 shares. 3 month avg: 31,645 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 04/29/2019 to 05/08/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Palto Alto Networks Inc (PANW)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 41 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $237.83
1 Month avg volatility: $5.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $221.26 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.27%
Volume: 825,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,496,697 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 03/18/2019 to 05/09/2019
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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PPL Corporation (PPL)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 364 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $30.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.15 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.81%
Volume: 3,907,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,908,818 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 04/22/2019 to 05/07/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 334 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $125.68
1 Month avg volatility: $2.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $131.40 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.48%
Volume: 843,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,365,482 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/18/2019 to 05/03/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 189 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $70.76
1 Month avg volatility: $1.41. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $73.84 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.11%
Volume: 104,900 shares. 3 month avg: 158,554 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/29/2019 to 05/09/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Stamps.com (STMP)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 585 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $36.90
1 Month avg volatility: $3.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.35 or 31.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -76.29%
Volume: 16,781,100 shares. 3 month avg: 426,580 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/09/2019 to 05/09/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Surmodics, Inc (SRDX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 559 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $41.58
1 Month avg volatility: $1.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.89 or 11.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.02%
Volume: 48,200 shares. 3 month avg: 37,286 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 04/23/2019 to 05/09/2019
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Tapestry Inc (TPR)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 519 out of 585
5/9/19 close: $33.36
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.91 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.16%
Volume: 20,421,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,145,718 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 04/23/2019 to 05/06/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 5/9/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.3% or -20.44 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 508 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 275 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 233 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 163/297 or 54.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 51/101 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

After yesterday's (Tuesday's) plunge, one would expect a retrace of the downdraft. And yet the bounce is often less than one would expect.

Take today's trading as an example. The index recovered all of 46 points of the 160 point drop before coming under selling pressure. The index formed a double top at AB and dropped from there.

Two things about today's trading. First, the drop has met (exceeded, really) the measure rule target, which is the height of the pattern subtracted from the price of the valley between the two tops. Thus, the drop is overdone and begging for a bounce.

Second, the above probabilities have found that under similar situations (similar price drops), the index has recovered the next day just over half the time.

Maybe the index will recover more on Thursday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,448.40    
 Monthly S1  7,695.86  247.46   
 Weekly S2  7,832.75  136.89   
 Daily S2  7,875.91  43.17   
 Weekly S1  7,888.03  12.12   
 Daily S1  7,909.62  21.58   
 Low  7,923.35  13.73   
 Monthly Pivot  7,935.97  12.62   
 Close  7,943.32  7.35   Yes! The Close is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Open  7,946.24  2.92   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,954.35  8.11   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  7,957.05  2.71   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,963.92  6.87   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,973.49  9.57   
 Daily R1  7,990.76  17.26   
 High  8,004.49  13.73   
 Weekly Pivot  8,032.06  27.57   
 Daily R2  8,038.19  6.14   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  8,087.34  49.15   
 Monthly R1  8,183.43  96.09   
 Weekly R2  8,231.37  47.94   
 Monthly R2  8,423.54  192.17   

Wednesday 5/8/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows the indicator turned bearish a day ago, but that's probably misleading. The large drop today (Tuesday) sucked down Monday's numbers, changing them to bearish.

Such changes can happen for up to a week. Thus, if Wednesday's trading were to show large gains, the red bar on the far right might turn green.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 35% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 35%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 489 stocks in my database are down an average of 18% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 34% on 12/24/2018.

This week, only the blue line has changed from a week ago. That's odd because the red line is more sensitive than the blue one. Maybe it's a round-off thing.

Anyway, the prior chart is bearish and this one is mixed, but leaning bearish, too. So that tilts the scale to... you guessed it... bearish.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/7/19. Slider Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.3% or -66.47 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1046 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 492 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 554 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 53.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 186/308 or 60.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 37/72 or 51.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz (click this link for the quiz) featuring the descending broadening wedge chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  25,377.75    
 Daily S2  25,873.91  496.17   
 Monthly S1  25,908.11  34.20   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Weekly S2  25,927.05  18.93   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Low  26,033.95  106.90   
 Daily S1  26,156.20  122.25   
 Open  26,160.62  4.42   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S1  26,182.76  22.14   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,202.92  20.15   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,255.11  52.19   
 Monthly Pivot  26,302.04  46.93   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,307.30  5.27   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  26,316.23  8.93   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  26,436.08  119.84   
 Close  26,438.48  2.40   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  26,476.27  37.79   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  26,598.52  122.25   
 Weekly R1  26,691.79  93.28   
 Daily R2  26,758.55  66.76   
 Monthly R1  26,832.40  73.85   
 Weekly R2  26,945.11  112.70   
 Monthly R2  27,226.33  281.22   

Monday 5/6/19. Market Monday: Utilities Moving Sideways

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

At AB, the index forms what I call an ugly double bottom even though the second bottom (B) isn't 5% higher than A.

I highlight that pattern because it forms a reversal which "sends" the utilities higher.

I heard that interest rates have dropped slightly, providing home buyers with a bonanza. It's possible that the lower rates began just after bottom B. Or it could be that the index was looking ahead several months.

Let's look at the horizontal movement at C.

That movement forms a rectangle top chart pattern.

It's not a nicely shaped pattern. I like to see at least 3 trendline touches of one trendline, 5 total, but this has only two on each side. But the two red lines show how price has moved across the chart. So it's gathering strength for the next move.

If the breakout is downward, it could take price down to B (above it, actually, around 720).

$ $ $

I updated the performance stats on triple bottoms.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 11.06 points.
Tuesday: Up 38.52 points.
Wednesday: Down 162.77 points.
Thursday: Down 122.35 points.
Friday: Up 197.16 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 38.38 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 17.6 points or 0.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 5.76 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.7% down from the high of 26,695.96 on 04/23/2019.
     17.1% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.1% down from the high of 8,176.08 on 04/29/2019.
     26.4% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.3% down from the high of 2,954.13 on 05/01/2019.
     20.5% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 05/03/2019, the CPI had:

2 bearish patterns,
34 bullish patterns,
232 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 94.4%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  26,305  26,405  26,470  26,570  26,635 
Weekly  25,949  26,227  26,458  26,736  26,967 
Monthly  25,400  25,952  26,324  26,877  27,248 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,922  2,934  2,941  2,953  2,960 
Weekly  2,880  2,913  2,933  2,966  2,987 
Monthly  2,771  2,859  2,906  2,993  3,041 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,058  8,111  8,138  8,191  8,218 
Weekly  7,906  8,035  8,106  8,234  8,305 
Monthly  7,522  7,843  8,010  8,331  8,497 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 13.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 21.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 36.1%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 22.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 6 weeks up 7.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 5 months up 14.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
8Rising wedge
7Triangle, symmetrical
6Broadening top
5Double Top, Adam and Adam
4Head-and-shoulders top
4Triple top
4Triple bottom
4Pipe bottom
4Diamond top
4Head-and-shoulders bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Cement and Aggregates2. Cement and Aggregates
3. Computer Software and Svcs3. Metal Fabricating
4. Financial Services4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Packaging and Container5. Packaging and Container

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/3/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 591 stocks searched, or 2.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 4 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
DDDTriangle, descending      03/08/201905/02/2019Electronics
ABTPipe bottom      04/15/201904/22/2019Medical Supplies
BERYDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/16/201905/01/2019Packaging and Container
EIGIFlag      04/18/201904/29/2019E-Commerce
EFXTriple top      04/17/201904/30/2019Information Services
FISDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/18/201904/29/2019Computer Software and Svcs
FORMDead-cat bounce      05/02/201905/02/2019Semiconductor
EVRGTriangle, descending      03/27/201905/01/2019Electric Utility (Central)
LHPipe bottom      04/15/201904/22/2019Medical Services
MDTPipe bottom      04/15/201904/22/2019Medical Supplies
NCSDiamond bottom      04/22/201905/01/2019Building Materials
PANWBroadening top, right-angled and descending      03/18/201905/02/2019Computer Software and Svcs
PNWDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/15/201904/26/2019Electric Utility (West)
DGXPipe bottom      04/15/201904/22/2019Medical Services
SEEHead-and-shoulders top      03/29/201904/30/2019Packaging and Container
TLRDDiamond bottom      04/01/201905/02/2019Retail (Special Lines)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/25/2019 and 05/02/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
3D Systems (DDD)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 483 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $10.68
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.31 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.01%
Volume: 1,501,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,031,971 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/08/2019 to 05/02/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 175 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $78.78
1 Month avg volatility: $1.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $75.09 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.92%
Volume: 5,058,700 shares. 3 month avg: 6,008,617 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/15/2019 to 04/22/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Berry Global Group Inc (BERY)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 98 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $53.57
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $56.38 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.71%
Volume: 9,244,000 shares. 3 month avg: 894,866 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/16/2019 to 05/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Endurance International Group Holdings (EIGI)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 576 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $4.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.15 or 15.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -26.62%
Volume: 1,626,000 shares. 3 month avg: 656,929 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 04/18/2019 to 04/29/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Equifax Inc (EFX)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 110 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $123.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $127.54 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 32.40%
Volume: 916,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,458,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 04/17/2019 to 04/30/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Fidelity National Information Svcs (FIS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 196 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $117.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $112.65 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.87%
Volume: 5,374,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,473,917 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/18/2019 to 04/29/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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FormFactor Inc. (FORM)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 32 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $16.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.96 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 20.16%
Volume: 725,600 shares. 3 month avg: 748,688 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/02/2019 to 05/02/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Great Plains Energy (EVRG)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 347 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $57.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.51 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.36%
Volume: 1,560,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,286,128 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/27/2019 to 05/01/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Labratory Corp of America (LH)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 343 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $165.63
1 Month avg volatility: $4.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $151.71 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.08%
Volume: 1,382,700 shares. 3 month avg: 674,168 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/15/2019 to 04/22/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Medtronic Inc (MDT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 393 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $89.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $85.31 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.00%
Volume: 4,756,200 shares. 3 month avg: 5,761,640 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/15/2019 to 04/22/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 577 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $5.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.00 or 10.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.45%
Volume: 337,800 shares. 3 month avg: 632,900 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 04/22/2019 to 05/01/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Palto Alto Networks Inc (PANW)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 41 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $246.73
1 Month avg volatility: $5.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $235.38 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.00%
Volume: 683,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,496,697 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 03/18/2019 to 05/02/2019
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 197 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $93.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $96.81 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.24%
Volume: 1,492,200 shares. 3 month avg: 665,203 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/15/2019 to 04/26/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Quest Diagnostics (DGX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 327 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $98.16
1 Month avg volatility: $1.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $92.36 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.88%
Volume: 1,410,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,490,418 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/15/2019 to 04/22/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Sealed Air Corp (SEE)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 33 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $44.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.04 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 27.78%
Volume: 2,570,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,419,223 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/29/2019 to 04/30/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 584 out of 585
5/2/19 close: $8.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.02 or 13.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -40.84%
Volume: 1,331,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,195,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 04/01/2019 to 05/02/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/14/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/13/2019 and a 38% chance by 09/12/2019.
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Thursday 5/2/19. Intraday Nasdaq: Bearish Signals

The index dropped by -0.6% or -45.75 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 313 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 139 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 174 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 55.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 163/297 or 54.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 50/100 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The AB pattern is a confirmed double top. That means the index has closed below the valley between the two tops and that happened when the index closed below red line C. Notice the strong, straight-line push lower. Hmm.

The green line shows support, but it sure looks weird. It's trendline support and it's where the index rests now. Will the index turn upward tomorrow? The trendline has only two minor low touches, so it's not really a trendline yet, and even if it were, it would be a weak one.

In brown, which looks yellow on my computer (probably jaundice Smile), a broadening top has appeared. If you've been taking my Tuesday slider quizzes, then you know about this pattern. It breaks out downward 39% of the time. In this context, that makes sense because it's a long way to the bottom of the pattern, and that favors an upward breakout.

Having said all of that, the CPI (chart pattern indicator) has turned bearish today (Wednesday). That signal could change but all of this, well, almost all of this post is bearish, so let's lean in that direction and hope we don't topple over.

Toodle pip!

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,354.37    
 Monthly S1  7,702.01  347.63   
 Weekly S2  7,869.85  167.85   
 Monthly Pivot  7,926.92  57.07   
 Weekly S1  7,959.75  32.82   
 Daily S2  7,983.52  23.77   
 Daily S1  8,016.58  33.06   
 Low  8,048.23  31.65   
 Close  8,049.64  1.41   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  8,055.79  6.15   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  8,081.29  25.50   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,085.58  4.29   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,097.12  11.54   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,108.65  11.54   
 Daily R1  8,114.35  5.70   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  8,132.93  18.58   
 Weekly R1  8,145.69  12.76   
 High  8,146.00  0.31   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  8,179.06  33.06   
 Weekly R2  8,241.73  62.67   
 Monthly R1  8,274.56  32.82   
 Monthly R2  8,499.47  224.92   

Wednesday 5/1/19. Index Struggles Higher

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The index has yet to drop and follow the indicator lower. That's clear from the chart by comparing the index with the thin blue line below it, on the far right (starting from April until recently).

Yes, the indicator recovered during the last week or two, and then stalled, just like the index. It looks as if it's struggling to find a new direction to trend in. The indicator is still bullish, though.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 35% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 35%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 489 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 34% on 12/24/2018.

The two lines show no change from their values a week ago. So there's no news to report here.

I think what these two charts are saying is that we're waiting for something new to happen, something that will send the markets tumbling by a few hundred points or one that will shoot us upward. What worries me is that if a stock fails to make new highs, then that's a sign of a drop coming. My guess is it also applies to indices, but we'll have to wait and see.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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