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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Industrials (^DJI):
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Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 07/20/2018
25,058 -6.38 0.0%
10,742 -6.15 -0.1%
718 -5.76 -0.8%
7,820 -5.10 -0.1%
2,802 -2.66 -0.1%
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1.4%
1.2%
-0.7%
13.3%
4.8%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 07/13/2018
25,700 or 24,000 by 08/01/2018
11,000 or 10,000 by 08/01/2018
750 or 700 by 08/01/2018
8,000 or 7,500 by 08/01/2018
2,850 or 2,725 by 08/01/2018

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May 2018 Headlines


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Thursday 5/31/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.9% or 65.86 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 286 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 188 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 98 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 65.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 147/264 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/89 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The pattern shown here in red isn't rare. In fact they are everywhere, which is why I seldom discuss them.

The pattern is an inverted and ascending scallop. The end of the pattern should have a more pronounced dip than the one shown here, so that makes me wonder about its effectiveness.

To complete the pattern, expect a dip, and that could suggest Thursday's trading will be soft (lower). But that's really a guess.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,751.16    
 Monthly S1  7,106.81  355.64   
 Monthly Pivot  7,282.61  175.81   
 Weekly S2  7,298.41  15.80   
 Weekly S1  7,380.43  82.02   
 Daily S2  7,403.17  22.74   
 Weekly Pivot  7,416.64  13.47   
 Low  7,423.67  7.03   
 Open  7,428.41  4.74   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  7,432.81  4.40   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,442.82  10.01   
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,448.74  5.92   
 Daily Pivot  7,453.31  4.57   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,454.66  1.35   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  7,462.45  7.79   
 High  7,473.81  11.36   
 Daily R1  7,482.95  9.14   
 Weekly R1  7,498.66  15.71   
 Daily R2  7,503.45  4.79   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  7,534.87  31.42   
 Monthly R1  7,638.26  103.39   
 Monthly R2  7,814.06  175.81   

Wednesday 5/30/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Today's (Tuesday's) big downward plunge took the indicator down with it. Whether the signal will remain is a question we won't know the answer to for three days (usually) but the signal can change for up to a week

So if Wednesday sees price rebound, then expect the bearish vertical red line to disappear.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 27% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 25%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 33% on 04/02/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 513 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

Both lines show deterioration this week, mostly brought on by today's drop.

It's interesting that last week, I drew a down-sloping green line which showed resistance. Turns out I was right. The indicator line (red one) reached the green line and has turned down.

Rumor has it that today's drop was about EU worries. Those worries don't last long, so I expect a rebound.

$ $ $

I updated the statistics on the measured move up chart pattern.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/25/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 15 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 616 stocks searched, or 2.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADTNMeasured move up      04/26/201805/22/2018Telecom. Equipment
ASNAFlag      05/21/201805/24/2018Apparel
AVYMeasured move up      04/25/201805/18/2018Packaging and Container
CLXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/15/201805/18/2018Household Products
CROXMeasured move up      05/07/201805/21/2018Shoe
EMNMeasured move up      03/02/201805/21/2018Chemical (Diversified)
ESRXMeasured move up      04/02/201805/22/2018Medical Services
FISVBroadening bottom      03/27/201805/21/2018IT Services
HAYNMeasured move up      03/28/201805/22/2018Building Materials
IPARPipe bottom      05/07/201805/14/2018Toiletries/Cosmetics
KMBRising wedge      04/27/201805/24/2018Household Products
NTAPPipe top      05/07/201805/14/2018Computers and Peripherals
OMCRising wedge      04/27/201805/22/2018Advertising
OMIBroadening bottom      04/16/201805/18/2018Medical Supplies
RGATriangle, descending      03/02/201805/24/2018Insurance (Life)
SCCOTriangle, descending      05/01/201805/22/2018Metals and Mining (Div.)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/17/2018 and 05/24/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 599 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $14.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.77 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.29%
Volume: 315,300 shares. 3 month avg: 348,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 04/26/2018 to 05/22/2018

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 38 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $3.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.74 or 13.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 34.04%
Volume: 1,577,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 05/21/2018 to 05/24/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 12/05/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/05/2018.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Avery Dennison Corp (AVY)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 395 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $108.98
1 Month avg volatility: $2.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $104.28 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.12%
Volume: 501,400 shares. 3 month avg: 661,129 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 04/25/2018 to 05/18/2018

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Clorox Co, The (CLX)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 509 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $119.69
1 Month avg volatility: $2.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $115.15 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.53%
Volume: 1,028,200 shares. 3 month avg: 971,306 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/15/2018 to 05/18/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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CROCS Inc (CROX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 23 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $16.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.41 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 32.83%
Volume: 752,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,230,068 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 05/07/2018 to 05/21/2018

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Eastman Chemical (EMN)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 135 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $107.27
1 Month avg volatility: $2.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $102.54 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.79%
Volume: 727,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,209,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 03/02/2018 to 05/21/2018

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Express Scripts (ESRX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 90 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $76.80
1 Month avg volatility: $2.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.63 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.89%
Volume: 1,494,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,217,495 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 04/02/2018 to 05/22/2018

Top

Fiserv, Inc (FISV)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 192 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $71.68
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.98 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.33%
Volume: 1,835,800 shares. 3 month avg: 915,811 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 03/27/2018 to 05/21/2018
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Haynes International Inc. (HAYN)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 80 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $41.04
1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.10 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 28.05%
Volume: 79,800 shares. 3 month avg: 80,035 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 03/28/2018 to 05/22/2018

Top

Inter Parfums Inc. (IPAR)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 99 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $53.05
1 Month avg volatility: $1.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.06 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.09%
Volume: 96,700 shares. 3 month avg: 72,294 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/07/2018 to 05/14/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Kimberly-Clark Corp (KMB)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 494 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $104.36
1 Month avg volatility: $1.71. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $108.26 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.51%
Volume: 1,556,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,082,589 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 04/27/2018 to 05/24/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

Network Appliance (NTAP)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 106 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $68.08
1 Month avg volatility: $1.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $71.52 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.07%
Volume: 8,726,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,986,022 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 05/07/2018 to 05/14/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 293 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $72.08
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $75.03 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.03%
Volume: 1,780,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,548,395 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 04/27/2018 to 05/22/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

Owens and Minor Inc (OMI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 533 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $16.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.75 or 9.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.35%
Volume: 539,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,318,423 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 04/16/2018 to 05/18/2018
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Reinsurance Group of America (RGA)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 384 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $150.31
1 Month avg volatility: $2.86. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $156.26 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.60%
Volume: 344,500 shares. 3 month avg: 326,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/02/2018 to 05/24/2018
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Southern Copper (SCCO)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 142 out of 608
5/24/18 close: $51.35
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $53.77 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.22%
Volume: 777,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/01/2018 to 05/22/2018
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Thursday 5/24/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.6% or 47.5 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 480 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 299 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 181 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 147/263 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/89 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

When I look at this chart, over the last 10 days, it seems as if the index went nowhere. Sure, it moved up and down but stayed in a trading range, a horizontal move. (Yes, it closed higher today then it did 10 days ago).

Today, the index dropped a large amount at the start and clawed its way back throughout the day.

I drew a red trendline along the valleys because it looked as if the index might be hitting it. Indeed, the index pierced the line at the circled area on the chart.

Just because it has pierced the resistance line doesn't mean the index will stop here. Resistance is often an area (range, like 7400-7430), not a discrete price (like 7,425). So the index might turn down on Thursday to close lower, or the pierce could be a signal of a move higher, out of congestion. You choose which to believe.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,739.00    
 Monthly S1  7,082.48  343.48   
 Weekly S2  7,264.33  181.85   
 Monthly Pivot  7,270.45  6.12   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S2.
 Daily S2  7,303.63  33.18   
 Low  7,334.62  30.99   
 Open  7,335.03  0.41   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly S1  7,345.15  10.12   
 Daily S1  7,364.79  19.65   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,369.83  5.03   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,380.70  10.88   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,391.57  10.87   
 Daily Pivot  7,395.79  4.21   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  7,401.78  6.00   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  7,425.96  24.18   
 High  7,426.78  0.82   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  7,456.95  30.17   
 Weekly R1  7,482.60  25.64   
 Daily R2  7,487.95  5.35   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  7,539.23  51.29   
 Monthly R1  7,613.93  74.70   
 Monthly R2  7,801.90  187.97   

Wednesday 5/23/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator line is dropping. You can see that at the bottom of the chart, that thin blue line shows it on the far right of the chart.

That downward move suggests, but does not guarantee, that the markets will drop in the coming days.

However, any big move upward will erase that dip. So who knows what will happen?

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 27%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 33% on 04/02/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 513 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

The above stats say both lines show improvement from the week-ago reading.

If you believe these lines, the markets are recovering and will continue to do so. That's really a leap, though. For the last 3 weeks or so, the index has climbed and the red and blue lines show that strength. It doesn't mean the trend will continue.

I just noticed that the peaks of the red line have diminished over time. The trend of the green line shows this. This overhead resistance could mean that the market is going to drop.

That sentiment would agree with the above, bearish, CPI chart. Hmm. Interesting.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/22/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 1.2% or 298.2 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 301 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 166 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 135 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 161/272 or 59.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/68 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index is difficult to see in the pattern that it makes, but the chart shows a descending triangle.

The bottom of the pattern is flat and the top slopes downward. There are plenty of price crossings, so it qualifies as a valid triangle.

What does this mean? Look for an upward breakout. According to my book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy, an upward breakout occurs 53% of the time.

That's about random. So the real breakout can be in any direction. Come to think of it, regardless of the probabilities (even a 100% probability of a downward breakout), the breakout can be in an any direction.

That adds spice to trading, don't you think?

 

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  23,050.05    
 Monthly S1  24,031.67  981.62   
 Monthly Pivot  24,512.93  481.26   
 Weekly S2  24,514.16  1.23   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly S1  24,763.72  249.57   
 Daily S2  24,790.85  27.13   
 Weekly Pivot  24,878.96  88.11   
 Low  24,883.06  4.10   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  24,883.06  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  24,902.07  19.01   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  24,960.77  58.70   
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,984.78  24.01   
 Daily Pivot  24,994.28  9.50   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  25,008.78  14.50   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  25,013.29  4.51   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  25,086.49  73.20   
 Daily R1  25,105.50  19.01   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  25,128.52  23.02   
 Daily R2  25,197.71  69.19   
 Weekly R2  25,243.76  46.04   
 Monthly R1  25,494.55  250.79   
 Monthly R2  25,975.81  481.26   

Monday 5/21/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This is an interesting pic. Why?

Because it shows strong overhead resistance to an upward move. The top red line illustrates how the index has bumped up against it time after time and dropped thereafter.

On the bottom, the index has found support at the bottom red line, but it's not as well defined as the top line (fewer touches, more ragged looking).

I based my targets this week (see Tom's Targets at page top) on the idea that price will push through that overhead resistance and make a strong push higher.

I'll be looking this weekend for something to buy, pruning a few stocks from my portfolio because they are not performing as well as I expected.

The combination of the two lines is a rectangle bottom chart pattern, by the way.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 68.24 points.
Tuesday: Down 193 points.
Wednesday: Up 62.52 points.
Thursday: Down 54.95 points.
Friday: Up 1.11 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 116.08 points or 0.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 48.54 points or 0.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 14.75 points or 0.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     7.1% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     5.9% up from the low of 23,344.52 on 04/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     3.7% down from the high of 7,637.27 on 03/13/2018.
     10.9% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     5.6% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     7.1% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 05/18/2018, the CPI had:

10 bearish patterns,
28 bullish patterns,
403 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 73.7%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,608  24,662  24,718  24,772  24,828 
Weekly  24,415  24,565  24,780  24,930  25,144 
Monthly  22,951  23,833  24,414  25,296  25,876 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,704  2,708  2,714  2,719  2,724 
Weekly  2,679  2,696  2,719  2,736  2,759 
Monthly  2,536  2,624  2,683  2,772  2,831 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,323  7,338  7,360  7,376  7,397 
Weekly  7,240  7,297  7,378  7,435  7,515 
Monthly  6,715  7,035  7,247  7,566  7,778 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.8%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 42.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.1%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 43.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.2%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 38.7%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
89Measured move up
17Pipe bottom
16Triangle, symmetrical
15Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
14Dead-cat bounce
12Double Top, Adam and Adam
8Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
7Pipe top
7Head-and-shoulders top
5Triple bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Shoe
2. Shoe2. Computers and Peripherals
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Internet
4. Computers and Peripherals4. Healthcare Information
5. Internet5. Computer Software and Svcs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/18/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 17 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 617 stocks searched, or 2.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 4 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (10) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACNMeasured move up      04/03/201805/14/2018IT Services
AONTriangle, symmetrical      03/19/201805/17/2018Insurance (Diversified)
APAPipe bottom      04/30/201805/07/2018Petroleum (Producing)
ARWMeasured move up      04/04/201805/14/2018Electronics
ASNAPipe bottom      04/30/201805/07/2018Apparel
AVYMeasured move up      04/25/201805/11/2018Packaging and Container
BZHPipe top      04/30/201805/07/2018Homebuilding
CACIMeasured move up      03/19/201805/11/2018IT Services
CRLMeasured move up      04/06/201805/14/2018Biotechnology
CBPXMeasured move up      02/06/201805/16/2018Retail Building Supply
CVGMeasured move up      04/02/201805/11/2018Computer Software and Svcs
GLWMeasured move up      04/06/201805/14/2018Telecom. Equipment
ESLBroadening top, right-angled and descending      03/07/201805/17/2018Precision Instrument
GXPHead-and-shoulders top      04/30/201805/14/2018Electric Utility (Central)
GFFPennant      05/08/201805/15/2018Building Materials
HHSBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      02/05/201805/15/2018Advertising
MURPipe bottom      04/30/201805/07/2018Petroleum (Integrated)
PKEFlag      05/10/201805/17/2018Chemical (Specialty)
SWNPipe bottom      04/30/201805/07/2018Natural Gas (Diversified)
SYMCDead-cat bounce      05/11/201805/11/2018Computer Software and Svcs
XLPTriangle, symmetrical      05/02/201805/16/2018Household Products

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/10/2018 and 05/17/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accenture plc (ACN)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 284 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $154.93
1 Month avg volatility: $2.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $149.36 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.20%
Volume: 1,507,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,995,040 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 04/03/2018 to 05/14/2018

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Aon Corp (AON)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 410 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $140.94
1 Month avg volatility: $2.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $134.40 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.18%
Volume: 737,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,174,512 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/19/2018 to 05/17/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Apache Corp. (APA)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 285 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $44.01
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.33 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.24%
Volume: 4,349,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,367,409 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/30/2018 to 05/07/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Arrow Electronics (ARW)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 427 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $75.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.60 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.62%
Volume: 697,200 shares. 3 month avg: 447,163 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 04/04/2018 to 05/14/2018

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 26 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $3.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.64 or 12.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 28.94%
Volume: 3,584,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/30/2018 to 05/07/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 12/05/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/05/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Avery Dennison Corp (AVY)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 381 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $108.19
1 Month avg volatility: $2.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $103.09 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.81%
Volume: 564,500 shares. 3 month avg: 661,129 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 04/25/2018 to 05/11/2018

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Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 599 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $15.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.54 or 9.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -21.29%
Volume: 450,900 shares. 3 month avg: 503,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/30/2018 to 05/07/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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CACI International (CACI)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 67 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $164.20
1 Month avg volatility: $2.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $157.56 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.06%
Volume: 83,300 shares. 3 month avg: 131,971 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 03/19/2018 to 05/11/2018

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Charles River Labs Intl (CRL)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 316 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $105.00
1 Month avg volatility: $2.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $99.30 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.07%
Volume: 397,700 shares. 3 month avg: 379,248 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 04/06/2018 to 05/14/2018

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Continental Building Products Inc (CBPX)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 222 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $29.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.05 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.80%
Volume: 130,100 shares. 3 month avg: 303,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 02/06/2018 to 05/16/2018

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Convergys Corporation (CVG)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 352 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $23.82
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.50 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.36%
Volume: 731,100 shares. 3 month avg: 888,571 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 04/02/2018 to 05/11/2018

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Corning Inc. (GLW)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 517 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $27.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.83 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.00%
Volume: 5,474,100 shares. 3 month avg: 5,449,098 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 04/06/2018 to 05/14/2018

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Esterline Technologies Corp. (ESL)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 253 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $76.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.07 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.41%
Volume: 252,400 shares. 3 month avg: 259,972 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 03/07/2018 to 05/17/2018
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Great Plains Energy (GXP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 457 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $31.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.33 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.36%
Volume: 995,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,439,260 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/30/2018 to 05/14/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 250 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $22.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.24 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.30%
Volume: 167,400 shares. 3 month avg: 83,558 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 05/08/2018 to 05/15/2018
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Harte-Hanks Inc (HHS)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 312 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $10.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.63 or 12.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.68%
Volume: 5,200 shares. 3 month avg: 98,162 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 05/15/2018
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 174 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $31.87
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.32 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.28%
Volume: 1,809,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,218,335 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/30/2018 to 05/07/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Park Electrochemical (PKE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 288 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $19.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.89 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.27%
Volume: 52,300 shares. 3 month avg: 70,862 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 05/10/2018 to 05/17/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 584 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $4.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.17 or 10.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.24%
Volume: 19,826,100 shares. 3 month avg: 16,683,949 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/30/2018 to 05/07/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Symantec Corp (SYMC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 571 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $22.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.15 or 8.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.46%
Volume: 12,065,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,752,529 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/11/2018 to 05/11/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector (XLP)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 487 out of 609
5/17/18 close: $49.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.49 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.37%
Volume: 16,818,900 shares. 3 month avg: 10,903,955 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/02/2018 to 05/16/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 5/17/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.6% or 46.67 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 479 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 299 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 180 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 147/262 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/89 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew a red line connecting the peak at B and drew it to the left. Notice how the index bumps up against this line at A and at other times.

Yes, it does poke through on Monday but soon drops back below the line.

The line is a support/resistance line.

Now look at Monday's peak. If the left of this peak mirrors what will happen on the right, then look for the index to struggle moving upward for another day.

$ $ $

I released a new study on retraces which occur in measured moves. It helps predict whether the chart pattern will meet its measure rule target.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,756.95    
 Monthly S1  7,077.62  320.68   
 Weekly S2  7,153.92  76.30   
 Monthly Pivot  7,247.65  93.73   
 Weekly S1  7,276.11  28.46   
 Daily S2  7,332.10  55.99   
 Weekly Pivot  7,346.89  14.79   
 Low  7,356.16  9.27   
 Open  7,356.22  0.06   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  7,365.20  8.98   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,378.00  12.79   
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,384.74  6.75   
 Daily Pivot  7,389.26  4.52   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,391.48  2.23   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  7,398.30  6.81   
 High  7,413.32  15.02   
 Daily R1  7,422.36  9.04   
 Daily R2  7,446.42  24.06   
 Weekly R1  7,469.08  22.66   
 Weekly R2  7,539.86  70.78   
 Monthly R1  7,568.32  28.46   
 Monthly R2  7,738.35  170.02   

Wednesday 5/16/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Still bullish, that's what the above chart shows. However, look at the two red lines at A.

Know what it signifies?

Bearish divergence. I thought the indices would breakout upward in a strong push higher, that we'd start a new upward trend. Looking at this chart, I'm afraid I'm wrong.

The CPI has been trending lower for days now even as the index has climbed. That's not good news. It suggests but does not guarantee, that the index will drop.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 27% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 28%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 33% on 04/02/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 513 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

The red line has improved from the prior week's reading but the more sluggish blue line has remained fixed.

All in all, I think that's good news.

So we have a bearish CPI chart and a bullish percent down chart. Hmm. One if them is likely right. Wonder which one? We'll have to wait and see.

$ $ $

I released a new version of Patternz: 7.2. This has some important crash fixes (I hope) and includes measured moves (two new chart patterns).

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/15/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.3% or 68.24 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1084 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 600 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 484 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 161/271 or 59.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/68 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index over the last few days has formed a rising wedge. I show it here outlined in red.

Notice that the two lines converge. That means the index will breakout either upward or downward soon. Because the index is at the bottom line, one can expect a downward breakout.

It'll be interesting to see if it happens on Tuesday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  23,095.78    
 Weekly S2  23,985.16  889.37   
 Monthly S1  23,997.60  12.44   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Monthly Pivot  24,433.12  435.53   
 Weekly S1  24,442.28  9.16   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  24,655.47  213.18   
 Daily S2  24,787.04  131.57   
 Daily S1  24,843.22  56.19   
 Low  24,862.52  19.30   
 Open  24,879.37  16.85   
 Close  24,899.41  20.04   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  24,912.82  13.41   
 Daily Pivot  24,918.71  5.89   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,928.36  9.65   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,943.89  15.54   
 Daily R1  24,974.89  31.00   
 High  24,994.19  19.30   
 Daily R2  25,050.38  56.19   
 Weekly R1  25,112.59  62.22   
 Weekly R2  25,325.78  213.18   
 Monthly R1  25,334.94  9.16   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  25,770.46  435.53   

Monday 5/14/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

The index has had a tough year, as the chart shows. The index is down a lot since the November high.

Year to date, the index is down almost 5%, as of Thursday's close. By comparison, the Nasdaq is up 7.3%.

This chart shows the index recovering since the low in February. It's been a slow process, but the index has climbed in a channel (outlined here in red).

Within the last week, the index broke out downward from that channel and pulled back.

If the pullback behaves as it should, the index will resume its downward move. However, the stats say that price will move higher more often than not.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of Bumper.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 94.81 points.
Tuesday: Up 2.89 points.
Wednesday: Up 182.33 points.
Thursday: Up 196.99 points.
Friday: Up 91.64 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 568.66 points or 2.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 193.26 points or 2.7%.
The S&P 500 index was up 64.3 points or 2.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.7% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     6.4% up from the low of 23,344.52 on 04/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     3.1% down from the high of 7,637.27 on 03/13/2018.
     11.6% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     5.1% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     7.7% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 05/11/2018, the CPI had:

6 bearish patterns,
49 bullish patterns,
431 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 89.1%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,655  24,743  24,806  24,894  24,957 
Weekly  23,962  24,397  24,633  25,067  25,303 
Monthly  23,073  23,952  24,410  25,289  25,748 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,711  2,719  2,726  2,735  2,741 
Weekly  2,628  2,678  2,705  2,755  2,783 
Monthly  2,547  2,637  2,685  2,776  2,823 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,352  7,378  7,398  7,423  7,443 
Weekly  7,155  7,279  7,348  7,472  7,541 
Monthly  6,758  7,081  7,249  7,571  7,740 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 45.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 42.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 44.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 43.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 34.2%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 38.7%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
20Double Top, Adam and Adam
18Triangle, symmetrical
14Head-and-shoulders top
14Dead-cat bounce
12Pipe bottom
12Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
9Pipe top
8Triple top
7Double Top, Adam and Eve
5Double Bottom, Eve and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Shoe
2. Computers and Peripherals2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Internet3. Internet
4. Healthcare Information4. Computers and Peripherals
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Computer Software and Svcs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/11/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 617 stocks searched, or 3.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 9 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 12 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACETDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/23/201805/04/2018Chemical (Diversified)
AEISPipe bottom      04/23/201804/30/2018Semiconductor
AMNDead-cat bounce      05/04/201805/04/2018Human Resources
APCBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      04/18/201805/10/2018Petroleum (Producing)
ANTMPipe top      04/23/201804/30/2018Medical Services
AMATPipe bottom      04/23/201804/30/2018Semiconductor Cap Equip.
ADSKPipe bottom      04/23/201804/30/2018Computer Software and Svcs
BECNDead-cat bounce      05/09/201805/09/2018Retail Building Supply
BKNGTriple top      04/18/201805/07/2018Internet
ESLBroadening top, right-angled and descending      03/07/201805/10/2018Precision Instrument
ESRXPipe top      04/23/201804/30/2018Medical Services
HETriple top      04/06/201805/04/2018Electric Utility (West)
DHITriangle, symmetrical      04/02/201805/10/2018Homebuilding
INFNDead-cat bounce      05/10/201805/10/2018Telecom. Equipment
INOVDead-cat bounce      05/09/201805/09/2018Healthcare Information
KELYADead-cat bounce      05/10/201805/10/2018Human Resources
KFRCPipe bottom      04/23/201804/30/2018Human Resources
MDCADead-cat bounce      05/10/201805/10/2018Advertising
NEERoof, inverted      03/27/201805/07/2018Electric Utility (East)
NKETriangle, ascending      04/02/201805/10/2018Shoe
OUTPennant      05/04/201805/09/2018Advertising
PDLIRectangle top      03/09/201805/10/2018Biotechnology
PNWHead-and-shoulders top      04/18/201805/04/2018Electric Utility (West)
PESFlag, high and tight      03/28/201805/10/2018Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
QCOMPipe bottom      04/23/201804/30/2018Telecom. Equipment
ROKPipe bottom      04/23/201804/30/2018Diversified Co.
SMTCPipe bottom      04/23/201804/30/2018Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TGTBroadening top, right-angled and descending      04/06/201805/09/2018Retail Store
TKRPipe bottom      04/23/201804/30/2018Metal Fabricating
VEEVPipe bottom      04/23/201804/30/2018Healthcare Information
XLEDiamond top      04/18/201805/04/2018Petroleum (Integrated)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/03/2018 and 05/10/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 609 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $2.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.28 or 19.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -72.60%
Volume: 606,000 shares. 3 month avg: 395,892 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/23/2018 to 05/04/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 04/19/2018. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 07/19/2018 and a 38% chance by 10/18/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 584 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $65.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.63 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.34%
Volume: 262,500 shares. 3 month avg: 447,252 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/23/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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AMN Healthcare (AMN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 65 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $55.15
1 Month avg volatility: $2.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.21 or 7.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.08%
Volume: 650,100 shares. 3 month avg: 549,046 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/04/2018 to 05/04/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 53 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $68.39
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $72.00 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 27.50%
Volume: 5,414,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,746,292 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 04/18/2018 to 05/10/2018
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Anthem (ANTM)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 291 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $225.67
1 Month avg volatility: $5.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $237.59 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.29%
Volume: 1,284,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,801,302 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/23/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Applied Materials (AMAT)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 411 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $55.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.27 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.63%
Volume: 9,730,000 shares. 3 month avg: 11,583,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/23/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Autodesk Inc (ADSK)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 199 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $136.47
1 Month avg volatility: $3.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $128.23 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.18%
Volume: 1,259,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,150,943 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/23/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 572 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $42.92
1 Month avg volatility: $1.91. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.90 or 13.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -32.69%
Volume: 1,663,600 shares. 3 month avg: 811,195 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/09/2018 to 05/09/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Booking Holdings (BKNG)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 79 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $2,080.02
1 Month avg volatility: $43.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2,184.47 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.70%
Volume: 1,104,400 shares. 3 month avg: 441,478 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 04/18/2018 to 05/07/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Esterline Technologies Corp. (ESL)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $75.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.60 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.07%
Volume: 99,100 shares. 3 month avg: 259,972 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 03/07/2018 to 05/10/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/10/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/11/2018.
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Express Scripts (ESRX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 138 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $70.96
1 Month avg volatility: $1.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $75.19 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.93%
Volume: 3,813,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,217,495 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/23/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 463 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $34.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.35 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.50%
Volume: 379,000 shares. 3 month avg: 432,540 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 04/06/2018 to 05/04/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Horton, D.R. Inc. (DHI)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 424 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $43.87
1 Month avg volatility: $1.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.14 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.10%
Volume: 2,532,700 shares. 3 month avg: 4,390,840 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/02/2018 to 05/10/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 248 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $9.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.31 or 21.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 47.71%
Volume: 6,354,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,624,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/10/2018 to 05/10/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Inovalon Holdings Inc (INOV)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 606 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $9.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.13 or 9.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -38.37%
Volume: 821,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/09/2018 to 05/09/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Kelly Services A (KELYA)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 516 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $24.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.05 or 20.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.47%
Volume: 748,500 shares. 3 month avg: 173,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/10/2018 to 05/10/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Kforce Inc (KFRC)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 49 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $32.40
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.11 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 28.32%
Volume: 229,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/23/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MDC Pateners Inc (MDCA)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 607 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $4.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.05 or 24.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -50.26%
Volume: 5,239,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/10/2018 to 05/10/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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NextEra Energy Inc (NEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 303 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $160.23
1 Month avg volatility: $2.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $164.68 or 2.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.59%
Volume: 1,619,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,582,705 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 03/27/2018 to 05/07/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Nike Inc (NKE)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 99 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $67.92
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.07 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.59%
Volume: 4,772,300 shares. 3 month avg: 10,538,462 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 05/10/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Outfont Media (OUT)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 559 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $19.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.81 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.52%
Volume: 701,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 05/04/2018 to 05/09/2018
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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PDL BioPharma Inc (PDLI)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 458 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $2.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.63 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.01%
Volume: 2,671,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,844,088 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/09/2018 to 05/10/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 532 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $78.13
1 Month avg volatility: $1.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $80.76 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.28%
Volume: 530,300 shares. 3 month avg: 665,203 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/18/2018 to 05/04/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Pioneer Energy Services (PES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 3 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $5.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.23 or 15.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 63.93%
Volume: 744,200 shares. 3 month avg: 605,192 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/28/2018 to 05/10/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 552 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $54.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.37 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.14%
Volume: 12,081,600 shares. 3 month avg: 12,234,022 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/23/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 476 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $178.02
1 Month avg volatility: $4.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $167.57 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.34%
Volume: 711,100 shares. 3 month avg: 805,498 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/23/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Semtech Corp (SMTC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 253 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $43.40
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.75 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.90%
Volume: 283,700 shares. 3 month avg: 510,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/23/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Target (TGT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 103 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $70.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.31 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.65%
Volume: 3,473,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,916,209 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 04/06/2018 to 05/09/2018
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Timken Co., The (TKR)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 313 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $47.85
1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.07 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.64%
Volume: 711,800 shares. 3 month avg: 853,643 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/23/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Veeva Systems Inc (VEEV)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 81 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $77.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.54 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 37.55%
Volume: 588,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/23/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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SPDR Energy Select Sector (XLE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 205 out of 609
5/10/18 close: $76.62
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.09 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.03%
Volume: 13,475,100 shares. 3 month avg: 11,586,362 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/18/2018 to 05/04/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Thursday 5/10/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.0% or 73.01 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 223 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 148 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 75 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 66.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 146/261 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/89 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I struggled to find a chart pattern today (Wednesday).

What I show some might call a rectangle top. I show the pattern with two horizontal lines drawn at the turning points.

I don't like this rectangle because there aren't enough touches on the top, in the middle. If we ignore that, then point A represents a partial decline. A partial decline predicts an upward breakout. It's not always accurate, but it's better than nothing. See the link for details.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,641.53    
 Weekly S2  6,949.32  307.79   
 Monthly S1  6,990.72  41.40   
 Weekly S1  7,144.61  153.89   
 Monthly Pivot  7,155.15  10.54   
 Weekly Pivot  7,186.44  31.29   
 Daily S2  7,228.84  42.40   
 Low  7,259.05  30.21   
 Open  7,281.53  22.48   
 Daily S1  7,284.37  2.84   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,291.81  7.43   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,301.92  10.12   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,312.04  10.12   
 Daily Pivot  7,314.59  2.54   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  7,339.91  25.32   
 High  7,344.80  4.89   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  7,370.12  25.32   
 Weekly R1  7,381.73  11.61   
 Daily R2  7,400.34  18.60   
 Weekly R2  7,423.56  23.22   
 Monthly R1  7,504.34  80.78   
 Monthly R2  7,668.77  164.43   

Wednesday 5/9/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Nothing has changed in the pic. The green vertical band on the far right of the chart says the indicator is still bullish.

It's hard to tell here, but the indicator is close to being in the neutral zone.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 28% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 29%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 33% on 04/02/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 513 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 16%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

Both lines ticked up this week over last as the above stats confirm.

It's hard to tell what will happen next. It's like we're in a holding pattern. It's still earnings season, so price will bounce around some.

Maybe the markets are waiting for earnings surprises to fade away before beginning a new trend.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/8/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.4% or 94.81 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1073 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 565 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 508 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 160/270 or 59.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/68 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The Dow formed a descending triangle chart pattern, which I show here outlined in red.

Price broke out downward and pulled back. The odds favor a resumption of the upward move. If you're an Elliott waver, and I'm not, you can count five waves from Thursday's low. And that suggests a drop.

There. I've covered both directions. Maybe I'll be right this time as to a higher or lower close.

Tonight's (Monday) national news said that Obamacare premiums are going up by as much as 90% (in Maryland) next year. Here's what the Washington Post said. "Insurers are proposing double-digit premium increases in Maryland's individual-health-plan market, a consequence of what the state's health insurance commissioner called a 'death spiral.' CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield requested an 18.5 percent increase on the HMO plans used by the vast majority of its individual-plan members - and a whopping, 91.4 percent increase on its PPO plans. Kaiser Permanente requested a 37.4 percent increase on its HMO plans. The average rate increase requested, across insurers and plans, was 30 percent."

Who do we have to thank for that increase? "Burrell said that he believes the Trump administration's move to zero out the individual mandate penalty for not being insured in 2019 will exacerbate the premium increases..."

Answer it by voting in November.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  22,672.49    
 Weekly S2  23,162.03  489.55   
 Monthly S1  23,514.90  352.87   
 Weekly S1  23,759.68  244.77   
 Weekly Pivot  24,128.95  369.28   
 Daily S2  24,150.70  21.75   
 Monthly Pivot  24,186.94  36.24   
 Daily S1  24,254.01  67.07   
 Low  24,263.42  9.41   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  24,317.66  54.24   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  24,345.94  28.28   
 Close  24,357.32  11.38   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  24,366.73  9.41   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,371.44  4.71   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,396.93  25.49   
 Daily R1  24,470.04  73.11   
 High  24,479.45  9.41   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  24,582.76  103.31   
 Weekly R1  24,726.60  143.84   
 Monthly R1  25,029.35  302.76   
 Weekly R2  25,095.87  66.52   
 Monthly R2  25,701.39  605.51   

Monday 5/7/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

The S&P 500 index appears on the daily scale.

I connected the peaks and valleys and the pattern formed a symmetrical triangle.

It's not an ideal pattern because the pattern only has two touches of each trendline instead of three.

But the converging price pattern is apparent.

An upward breakout occurs 54% of the time, making it difficult to determine a breakout direction.

Because price is close to the trendline, you may see a breakout this week.

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 148.04 points.
Tuesday: Down 64.1 points.
Wednesday: Down 174.07 points.
Thursday: Up 5.17 points.
Friday: Up 332.36 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 48.68 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 89.82 points or 1.3%.
The S&P 500 index was down 6.49 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     8.8% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     3.9% up from the low of 23,344.52 on 04/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     5.6% down from the high of 7,637.27 on 03/13/2018.
     8.7% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     7.3% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     5.2% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 05/04/2018, the CPI had:

2 bearish patterns,
22 bullish patterns,
221 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 91.7%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  23,570  23,916  24,125  24,471  24,679 
Weekly  23,130  23,696  24,097  24,663  25,064 
Monthly  22,641  23,452  24,155  24,966  25,670 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,594  2,629  2,650  2,684  2,706 
Weekly  2,559  2,611  2,647  2,699  2,735 
Monthly  2,481  2,572  2,645  2,736  2,809 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  6,995  7,102  7,165  7,273  7,336 
Weekly  6,906  7,058  7,143  7,295  7,380 
Monthly  6,598  6,904  7,112  7,417  7,625 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 15.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months up 42.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 13.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months up 43.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 46.5%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 38.7%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
20Double Top, Adam and Adam
17Triangle, symmetrical
14Head-and-shoulders top
10Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
10Pipe bottom
9Dead-cat bounce
8Pipe top
6Triple top
6Double Top, Adam and Eve
5Double Top, Eve and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Shoe
3. Internet3. Internet
4. Computers and Peripherals4. Human Resources
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/4/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 33 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 617 stocks searched, or 5.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 11 bearish ones with any remaining (10) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABTTriangle, symmetrical      04/05/201804/30/2018Medical Supplies
ABCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/18/201805/02/2018Biotechnology
ANIKDead-cat bounce      05/03/201805/03/2018Biotechnology
APOGTriangle, descending      04/17/201805/03/2018Building Materials
ACGLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/17/201805/02/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ADMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/20/201804/27/2018Food Processing
ASNADouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/18/201804/27/2018Apparel
ASHBroadening bottom      03/26/201805/03/2018Chemical (Basic)
BMITriangle, symmetrical      04/24/201805/03/2018Precision Instrument
CHSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/13/201804/27/2018Apparel
CAGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/17/201804/27/2018Food Processing
CMIPipe top      04/16/201804/23/2018Machinery
BOOMFlag, high and tight      03/01/201804/27/2018Metal Fabricating
EBAYPipe top      04/16/201804/23/2018Internet
WIREDead-cat bounce      05/02/201805/02/2018Metals and Mining (Div.)
FEHead-and-shoulders complex top      03/27/201804/30/2018Electric Utility (East)
FLEXDead-cat bounce      04/27/201804/27/2018Electronics
HSCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/02/201805/01/2018Diversified Co.
HETriangle, symmetrical      04/06/201805/03/2018Electric Utility (West)
IPGPipe top      04/16/201804/23/2018Advertising
KALUChannel      02/06/201805/03/2018Metals and Mining (Div.)
MGEERising wedge      03/22/201805/03/2018Electric Utility (Central)
OLNBroadening wedge, ascending      04/04/201805/03/2018Chemical (Basic)
OXMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/18/201804/27/2018Apparel
TMKDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/20/201804/30/2018Insurance (Diversified)
TZOOFlag, high and tight      03/05/201805/03/2018Internet
UNMDead-cat bounce      05/02/201805/02/2018Insurance (Diversified)
ITBTriangle, symmetrical      04/02/201805/03/2018Homebuilding
IHITriangle, symmetrical      01/29/201804/27/2018Medical Supplies
DDMHead-and-shoulders top      04/05/201804/30/2018Long ETFs
FXITriangle, symmetrical      02/09/201805/02/2018Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWHTriangle, symmetrical      01/26/201804/27/2018Investment Co. (Foreign)
XLVDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/18/201804/30/2018Drug

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/26/2018 and 05/03/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 192 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $57.93
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.45 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.51%
Volume: 5,603,700 shares. 3 month avg: 6,008,617 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/05/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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AmerisourceBergen Corp (ABC)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 140 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $85.37
1 Month avg volatility: $2.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $95.25 or 11.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.02%
Volume: 3,179,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,046,918 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/18/2018 to 05/02/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Anika Therapeutics Inc (ANIK)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 600 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $34.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.17 or 24.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -35.45%
Volume: 841,500 shares. 3 month avg: 71,871 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/03/2018 to 05/03/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Apogee Enterprises (APOG)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 517 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $41.71
1 Month avg volatility: $1.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $44.89 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.79%
Volume: 246,600 shares. 3 month avg: 243,183 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 04/17/2018 to 05/03/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 12/21/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/21/2018.
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $77.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.67. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $82.65 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.12%
Volume: 1,236,400 shares. 3 month avg: 517,168 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/17/2018 to 05/02/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 186 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $43.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.12 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.78%
Volume: 4,862,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,092,757 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/20/2018 to 04/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 238 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $2.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.30 or 12.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.19%
Volume: 676,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 04/18/2018 to 04/27/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 12/05/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/05/2018.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Ashland Inc. (ASH)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 239 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $71.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $67.71 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.39%
Volume: 744,300 shares. 3 month avg: 610,854 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 03/26/2018 to 05/03/2018
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Badger Meter Inc. (BMI)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 384 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $42.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.96 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.19%
Volume: 104,300 shares. 3 month avg: 149,246 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/24/2018 to 05/03/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Chicos FAS Inc. (CHS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 78 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $9.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.37 or 10.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.35%
Volume: 2,447,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,783,222 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/13/2018 to 04/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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ConAgra Brands Inc (CAG)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 220 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $35.82
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.52 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.91%
Volume: 3,488,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,423,360 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 04/17/2018 to 04/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Cummins Inc. (CMI)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 545 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $143.55
1 Month avg volatility: $4.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $153.97 or 7.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -18.73%
Volume: 3,227,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,327,631 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/16/2018 to 04/23/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 8 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $38.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.45 or 10.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 53.69%
Volume: 167,000 shares. 3 month avg: 60,208 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/01/2018 to 04/27/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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eBay, Inc. (EBAY)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 318 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $37.64
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.70 or 5.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.26%
Volume: 8,697,700 shares. 3 month avg: 8,868,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/16/2018 to 04/23/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Encore Wire Corp (WIRE)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 266 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $46.58
1 Month avg volatility: $1.68. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $52.85 or 13.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.25%
Volume: 99,100 shares. 3 month avg: 88,880 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/02/2018 to 05/02/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 242 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $33.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.18 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.65%
Volume: 4,047,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,155,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex top reversal pattern from 03/27/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 67% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 53% of the time.

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Flextronics International Ltd (FLEX)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 572 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $13.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.98 or 7.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -22.62%
Volume: 7,308,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,241,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 04/27/2018 to 04/27/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 183 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $22.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.27 or 9.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.38%
Volume: 929,300 shares. 3 month avg: 523,465 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 05/01/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 395 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $34.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.44 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.87%
Volume: 417,100 shares. 3 month avg: 432,540 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/06/2018 to 05/03/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 85 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $23.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.39 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.88%
Volume: 2,598,700 shares. 3 month avg: 6,516,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/16/2018 to 04/23/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 271 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $100.48
1 Month avg volatility: $3.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $91.97 or 8.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.96%
Volume: 110,200 shares. 3 month avg: 141,669 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 02/06/2018 to 05/03/2018

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MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 489 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $58.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.17 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.74%
Volume: 33,600 shares. 3 month avg: 83,160 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/22/2018 to 05/03/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Olin Corp. (OLN)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $30.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.13 or 7.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.74%
Volume: 2,308,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,697,154 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 04/04/2018 to 05/03/2018
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Oxford Industries (OXM)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 98 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $74.68
1 Month avg volatility: $1.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.12 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.68%
Volume: 79,200 shares. 3 month avg: 144,562 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/18/2018 to 04/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Torchmark Corp (TMK)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 338 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $84.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $87.53 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.30%
Volume: 446,300 shares. 3 month avg: 431,386 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 04/20/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 7 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $12.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.29 or 9.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 93.80%
Volume: 139,300 shares. 3 month avg: 22,411 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/05/2018 to 05/03/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Unum Group (UNM)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 578 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $39.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.92 or 7.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -28.86%
Volume: 3,467,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,168,134 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/02/2018 to 05/02/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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DJ US Home construction index fund (ITB)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 377 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $38.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.15 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.39%
Volume: 2,267,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,388,375 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/02/2018 to 05/03/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ US Medical devices index fund (IHI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 151 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $189.46
1 Month avg volatility: $2.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $180.65 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.19%
Volume: 95,700 shares. 3 month avg: 82,220 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/29/2018 to 04/27/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJIA, long 2x Ultra Dow 30 ProShares (DDM)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 262 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $121.52
1 Month avg volatility: $3.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $129.12 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.05%
Volume: 616,900 shares. 3 month avg: 146,360 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/05/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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FTSE/Xinhua China 25 index fund (FXI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 314 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $46.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.36 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.61%
Volume: 33,625,400 shares. 3 month avg: 13,067,020 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/09/2018 to 05/02/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MSCI Hong Kong Index fund (EWH)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 263 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $25.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.94 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.83%
Volume: 4,359,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,971,923 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/26/2018 to 04/27/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SPDR Health Care Select Sector (XLV)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 345 out of 609
5/3/18 close: $80.36
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $82.93 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.81%
Volume: 13,448,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,841,795 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/18/2018 to 04/30/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Thursday 5/3/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.4% or -29.8 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 422 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 216 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 206 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 146/260 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/89 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This is a study of support and resistance.

The red line is overhead resistance. The index has bumped up against it several times. It may hold again, or it may not.

Holders of the index, seeing that the index has reached the red line before, may decide to sell and lock in their profit. That selling may push the index down, giving them further incentive to sell before the decline begins.

The green line is where the index is now. Notice that prior valleys also stop at that line or the index moves sideways at or near the line. It's possible the index will turn here.

Finally, the blue line is another area of support. The index moved sideways on Tuesday for a time before price lifted off and soared out of the support area. If the index were to drop back to the blue line, one could expect traders to buy more shares in the expectation that the index will rise again. Perhaps some will want to average down. Their buying may push up shares.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,561.86    
 Weekly S2  6,804.83  242.97   
 Monthly S1  6,831.38  26.55   
 Weekly S1  6,952.86  121.48   
 Daily S2  7,046.95  94.09   
 Daily S1  7,073.93  26.97   
 Weekly Pivot  7,075.01  1.08   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  7,075.48  0.47   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  7,094.72  19.24   
 Close  7,100.90  6.18   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  7,121.69  20.79   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,123.27  1.58   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,132.09  8.82   
 Open  7,138.45  6.36   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,140.91  2.46   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  7,148.67  7.76   
 High  7,169.46  20.79   
 Daily R2  7,196.43  26.97   
 Weekly R1  7,223.04  26.61   
 Monthly R1  7,345.00  121.96   
 Weekly R2  7,345.19  0.19   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  7,589.10  243.91   

Wednesday 5/2/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

A bearish turn has disappeared in the indicator, as the chart shows. That leaves a green bar as the most recent signal change.

However, if you look at the thin blue indicator line near the bottom of the chart, you'll see that it's hovering just above a bearish turn (35).

So another downward move could turn the indicator bearish. For now, though, it remains bullish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 29% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 29%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 33% on 04/02/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 513 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 16%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

The above text tells that neither indicator moved over the past week. By that I mean the readings are the same as a week ago, although the indicators did move around midweek.

What does all of this mean? Not sure. It's earnings season, so I expect higher volatility. And that will bounce all of the indicators around until the season ends.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/1/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.6% or -148.04 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 662 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 343 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 319 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 160/269 or 59.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/68 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I show what I saw when I looked at this intraday chart.

The S's are shoulders of a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. The red line represents the neckline.

It signals a breakout when price closes above it.

The H has overwritten part of the price, so it looks as if the H is above the shoulders. It's not. However, that SHS structure is better defined as a double bottom. because the left shoulder and head are at nearly the same price.

Notice that price has trended lower after the upward breakout. That's a throwback.

Because price trends downward all day, it suggests that tomorrow (Tuesday) might open lower. However, it's earnings season, so a good earnings report by a big company could send the index flying.

Also, the index is resting on a support area. That's another reason to think tomorrow might be an 'up' day.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  22,607.76    
 Monthly S1  23,385.46  777.69   
 Weekly S2  23,431.86  46.41   
 Weekly S1  23,797.51  365.64   
 Daily S2  23,939.67  142.16   
 Daily S1  24,051.41  111.74   
 Monthly Pivot  24,122.21  70.80   
 Low  24,163.08  40.87   
 Close  24,163.15  0.07   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  24,188.72  25.57   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  24,274.82  86.10   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  24,291.11  16.29   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,330.65  39.55   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,370.20  39.55   
 Daily R1  24,386.56  16.36   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  24,410.41  23.85   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  24,498.23  87.82   
 Weekly R1  24,554.37  56.14   
 Daily R2  24,609.97  55.60   
 Monthly R1  24,899.91  289.94   
 Weekly R2  24,945.58  45.68   
 Monthly R2  25,636.66  691.08   

Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.