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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
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As of 06/21/2017
21,410 -57.11 -0.3%
9,293 -11.21 -0.1%
730 -4.82 -0.7%
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2.8%
10.7%
15.8%
8.8%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 06/15/2017
21,600 or 21,000 by 07/01/2017
9,100 or 9,600 by 07/01/2017
720 or 745 by 07/01/2017
6,300 or 6,000 by 07/01/2017
2,525 or 2,390 by 07/01/2017

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May 2015 Headlines


Archives


Friday 5/29/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 28 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 589 stocks searched, or 4.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
APDTriangle, ascending      05/04/201505/28/2015Chemical (Diversified)
AMWDChannel      03/25/201505/28/2015Building Materials
AWIDiamond top      04/06/201505/22/2015Building Materials
BKHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/14/201505/26/2015Electric Utility (West)
CNLRectangle top      02/05/201505/28/2015Electric Utility (Central)
CNAChannel      04/09/201505/28/2015Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CMIHead-and-shoulders top      05/04/201505/22/2015Machinery
WIRETriangle, descending      04/24/201505/28/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
FASTTriangle, ascending      02/19/201505/28/2015Retail Building Supply
HWChannel      01/02/201505/28/2015Building Materials
HSICRectangle top      02/17/201505/28/2015Medical Supplies
KLACRectangle bottom      04/10/201505/28/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LAWSTriangle, symmetrical      05/05/201505/26/2015Metal Fabricating
NETriangle, symmetrical      04/15/201505/28/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
JWNChannel      03/23/201505/28/2015Retail Store
PHMBroadening bottom      04/30/201505/27/2015Homebuilding
RDCDiamond top      05/06/201505/27/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SAIABroadening top, right-angled and ascending      05/04/201505/28/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SLBTriangle, symmetrical      04/30/201505/27/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SHLMChannel      04/28/201505/28/2015Chemical (Specialty)
SONSTriangle, descending      04/23/201505/28/2015Telecom. Equipment
TEVATriangle, descending      04/30/201505/28/2015Drug
UILBroadening wedge, descending      03/31/201505/28/2015Electric Utility (East)
VRSNTriangle, ascending      05/04/201505/28/2015Internet
WERNTriangle, descending      05/05/201505/28/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IYCRectangle top      02/20/201505/28/2015Retail Store
PPHRising wedge      03/23/201505/28/2015Drug
DBARectangle bottom      03/13/201505/26/2015Investment Co. (Domestic)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/21/2015 and 05/28/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 280 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $148.20
1 Month avg volatility: $2.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $141.65 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.75%
Volume: 521,300 shares. 3 month avg: 982,860 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/04/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

American Woodmark Corp (AMWD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 45 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $50.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.62 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.54%
Volume: 139,500 shares. 3 month avg: 149,240 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/25/2015 to 05/28/2015

Top

Armstrong World Industries (AWI)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 143 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $55.99
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.25 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.53%
Volume: 819,000 shares. 3 month avg: 632,232 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/06/2015 to 05/22/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Black Hills Corp (BKH)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 489 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $48.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.03 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.86%
Volume: 440,100 shares. 3 month avg: 209,955 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/14/2015 to 05/26/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Cleco Corp (CNL)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 301 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $54.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.74 or 1.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.07%
Volume: 101,800 shares. 3 month avg: 351,871 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/05/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

CNA Financial Corp (CNA)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 337 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $38.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.66 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.21%
Volume: 39,100 shares. 3 month avg: 115,311 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/09/2015 to 05/28/2015

Top

Cummins Inc. (CMI)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 432 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $139.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $143.87 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.41%
Volume: 1,163,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,579,558 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 05/04/2015 to 05/22/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Top

Encore Wire Corp (WIRE)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 79 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $44.40
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.97 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.94%
Volume: 56,600 shares. 3 month avg: 118,934 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 04/24/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Fastenal Company (FAST)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 425 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $42.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.12 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.53%
Volume: 1,486,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,271,060 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/19/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Headwaters Inc. (HW)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 22 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $19.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.09 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.08%
Volume: 323,700 shares. 3 month avg: 608,369 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/02/2015 to 05/28/2015

Top

Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 225 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $142.66
1 Month avg volatility: $1.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $137.86 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.78%
Volume: 364,900 shares. 3 month avg: 729,837 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/17/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 481 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $60.27
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $62.74 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.29%
Volume: 936,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,370,206 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 04/10/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Top

Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 269 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $23.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.65 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.84%
Volume: 17,700 shares. 3 month avg: 16,437 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/05/2015 to 05/26/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Noble Corporation (NE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 501 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $17.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.36 or 10.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.38%
Volume: 6,508,200 shares. 3 month avg: 8,150,323 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/15/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 376 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $73.63
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.01 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.26%
Volume: 1,217,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,194,929 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/23/2015 to 05/28/2015

Top

Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 473 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $19.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.46 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.46%
Volume: 5,140,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,472,618 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 04/30/2015 to 05/27/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Rowan Companies (RDC)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 431 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $21.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.07 or 10.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.39%
Volume: 4,957,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,475,703 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 05/06/2015 to 05/27/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

SAIA Inc (SAIA)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 555 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $41.49
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.94 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -25.05%
Volume: 229,800 shares. 3 month avg: 313,160 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 05/04/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top

Schlumberger Limited (SLB)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 375 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $90.65
1 Month avg volatility: $1.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $86.24 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.14%
Volume: 4,399,300 shares. 3 month avg: 7,753,791 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/30/2015 to 05/27/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Schulman, A. (SHLM)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 135 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $43.33
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.62 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.91%
Volume: 65,000 shares. 3 month avg: 173,028 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/28/2015 to 05/28/2015

Top

Sonus Networks, Inc. (SONS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 580 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $7.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.33 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -60.40%
Volume: 552,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,549,092 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 04/23/2015 to 05/28/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/24/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/23/2015 and a 38% chance by 09/22/2015.
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 196 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $60.84
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.57 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.79%
Volume: 3,641,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,680,029 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 04/30/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

UIL Holdings Corp (UIL)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 36 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $50.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.74 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.04%
Volume: 164,300 shares. 3 month avg: 465,382 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 03/31/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

Top

Verisign (VRSN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 214 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $63.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.82 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.68%
Volume: 1,001,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,033,623 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/04/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Werner Enterprises, Inc (WERN)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 450 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $27.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.26 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -10.18%
Volume: 483,200 shares. 3 month avg: 733,065 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/05/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

DJ US consumer svcs index fnd (retail) (IYC)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 182 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $144.85
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $142.05 or 1.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.15%
Volume: 18,500 shares. 3 month avg: 67,665 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/20/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Market Vectors Pharmaceutical (PPH)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 134 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $73.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $74.77 or 1.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.45%
Volume: 94,700 shares. 3 month avg: 85,003 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/23/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 509 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $21.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.37 or 1.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.69%
Volume: 364,100 shares. 3 month avg: 370,803 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 03/13/2015 to 05/26/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Thursday 5/28/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.5% or 73.84 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 98 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 58 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 40 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 59.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 87/144 or 60.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 29/61 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The first thing I noticed was the tall move from A to B, shown in the chart.

To me, this just begs to retrace. The 5100 area is a resistance level so even though we are above that now, it's still close enough to see resistance

Thus, I expect the index to close lower on Thursday. Alternatively, the index could move sideways for a time, regrouping for a new push higher.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,806.54    
 Monthly S1  4,956.56  150.03   
 Daily S2  5,013.66  57.10   
 Weekly S2  5,016.36  2.69   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2.
 Monthly Pivot  5,038.20  21.84   
 Low  5,039.37  1.17   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Open  5,047.86  8.49   
 Daily S1  5,060.13  12.27   
 Weekly S1  5,061.47  1.35   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,066.94  5.47   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,075.46  8.52   
 Weekly Pivot  5,082.66  7.20   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,083.97  1.31   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  5,085.83  1.86   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,106.59  20.76   
 High  5,111.54  4.95   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  5,127.77  16.23   
 Daily R1  5,132.30  4.52   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  5,148.96  16.66   
 Daily R2  5,158.00  9.05   
 Monthly R1  5,188.22  30.22   
 Monthly R2  5,269.86  81.63   

Wednesday 5/27/15. Chart Pattern Indicator:Bearish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

It's hard to tell from this picture but the chart pattern indicator has turned bearish.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The red lines show the bearish signals.

The indicator turned bearish three trading days ago, but that is probably deceptive. My guess is the signal turned bearish today and carried back to the prior two days. That's possible since signals can appear or disappear for up to a week.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/26/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.3% or -53.72 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 987 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 468 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 519 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 93/156 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 24/44 or 54.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

This snapshot was taken on Friday evening since we have a holiday on Monday.

The index over the last several days has made a rounded top. My review of the chart pattern says that it breaks out upward 53% of the time. Thus, that is what I expect to happen, but I could be wrong since the number is about random.

The chart pattern indicator shows a weakening condition. It's neutral but could turn down and slip into bearish territory soon

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,487.26    
 Monthly S1  17,859.64  372.38   
 Monthly Pivot  18,105.50  245.86   
 Weekly S2  18,132.62  27.12   
 Daily S2  18,175.61  42.99   
 Weekly S1  18,182.32  6.71   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  18,203.82  21.50   
 Low  18,217.14  13.32   
 Close  18,232.02  14.88   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,243.78  11.76   
 Daily Pivot  18,245.34  1.57   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,252.01  6.66   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,260.23  8.23   
 Weekly Pivot  18,266.84  6.61   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  18,273.55  6.71   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  18,286.87  13.32   
 High  18,286.87  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  18,315.07  28.21   
 Weekly R1  18,316.54  1.46   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  18,401.06  84.52   
 Monthly R1  18,477.88  76.82   
 Monthly R2  18,723.74  245.86   

Friday 5/22/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 589 stocks searched, or 3.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 13 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ALKTriangle, symmetrical      03/18/201505/21/2015Air Transport
ATWPipe top      05/04/201505/11/2015Petroleum (Producing)
BCPCBroadening bottom      03/10/201505/18/2015Chemical (Specialty)
CNLRectangle bottom      02/05/201505/21/2015Electric Utility (Central)
CNWTriangle, symmetrical      04/27/201505/19/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing
CLRScallop, ascending and inverted      03/24/201505/21/2015Petroleum (Producing)
^DJTChannel      04/17/201505/21/2015None
FASTTriangle, ascending      02/19/201505/21/2015Retail Building Supply
HWChannel      01/02/201505/21/2015Building Materials
HSICRectangle top      02/17/201505/21/2015Medical Supplies
HOVPipe bottom      05/04/201505/11/2015Homebuilding
NSPTriangle, symmetrical      05/05/201505/20/2015Human Resources
TILETriangle, symmetrical      05/11/201505/21/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
LGBroadening top      04/09/201505/20/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
MNKDPipe bottom      05/04/201505/11/2015Biotechnology
MLMPennant      05/08/201505/21/2015Cement and Aggregates
JWNChannel      03/23/201505/21/2015Retail Store
SMGRectangle bottom      04/09/201505/21/2015Chemical (Basic)
IYCRectangle top      02/20/201505/21/2015Retail Store
SMNDiamond bottom      04/27/201505/21/2015Short ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/14/2015 and 05/21/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 95 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $64.69
1 Month avg volatility: $1.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.08 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.25%
Volume: 1,277,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,249,726 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/18/2015 to 05/21/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Atwood Oceanics Inc. (ATW)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 484 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $33.58
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.23 or 7.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.36%
Volume: 2,284,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,053,598 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 05/04/2015 to 05/11/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Balchem Corp (BCPC)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 469 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $59.01
1 Month avg volatility: $1.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.53 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.45%
Volume: 147,100 shares. 3 month avg: 169,768 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 03/10/2015 to 05/18/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Cleco Corp (CNL)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 329 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $54.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.34 or 1.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.02%
Volume: 251,200 shares. 3 month avg: 361,268 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 02/05/2015 to 05/21/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Con-way Inc. (CNW)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 487 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $42.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.07 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.03%
Volume: 784,000 shares. 3 month avg: 751,937 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/27/2015 to 05/19/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Continental Resources Inc. (CLR)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 502 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $46.98
1 Month avg volatility: $2.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.33 or 12.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.47%
Volume: 2,079,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,712,526 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 03/24/2015 to 05/21/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/28/2014. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/29/2015.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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DJ 20 Transportation (^DJT)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
5/21/15 close: $8,551.28
1 Month avg volatility: $111.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8,265.00 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.44%
Volume: 18,110,500 shares. 3 month avg: 15,103,269 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/17/2015 to 05/21/2015

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Fastenal Company (FAST)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 431 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $42.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.04 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.24%
Volume: 1,144,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,326,985 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/19/2015 to 05/21/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Headwaters Inc. (HW)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 12 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $19.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.80 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 32.35%
Volume: 331,800 shares. 3 month avg: 632,443 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/02/2015 to 05/21/2015

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Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 245 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $141.62
1 Month avg volatility: $2.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $136.52 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.02%
Volume: 293,700 shares. 3 month avg: 729,718 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/17/2015 to 05/21/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 558 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $3.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.88 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.70%
Volume: 1,570,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,932,505 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/04/2015 to 05/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Insperity (NSP)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 4 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $52.94
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.93 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 56.21%
Volume: 125,700 shares. 3 month avg: 236,589 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/05/2015 to 05/20/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Interface, Inc. (TILE)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 16 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $22.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.29 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 36.13%
Volume: 308,200 shares. 3 month avg: 619,515 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/11/2015 to 05/21/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Laclede Group (LG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 276 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $53.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.14 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.17%
Volume: 268,800 shares. 3 month avg: 212,869 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/09/2015 to 05/20/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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MannKind Corp (MNKD)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 561 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $4.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.90 or 15.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.22%
Volume: 6,656,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,824,286 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/04/2015 to 05/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Martin Marietta Materials, Inc (MLM)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 84 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $154.58
1 Month avg volatility: $3.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $146.33 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 40.12%
Volume: 688,400 shares. 3 month avg: 730,982 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 05/08/2015 to 05/21/2015
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 326 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $75.33
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.87 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.11%
Volume: 1,109,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,338,200 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/23/2015 to 05/21/2015

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Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 214 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $64.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.25 or 6.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.25%
Volume: 502,600 shares. 3 month avg: 286,038 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 04/09/2015 to 05/21/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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DJ US consumer svcs index fnd (retail) (IYC)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 181 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $145.36
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $141.99 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.52%
Volume: 30,400 shares. 3 month avg: 69,562 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/20/2015 to 05/21/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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UltraShort 2x Basic Materials ProShares (SMN)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 446 out of 581
5/21/15 close: $26.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.01 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.88%
Volume: 500 shares. 3 month avg: 6,954 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 04/27/2015 to 05/21/2015
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Thursday 5/21/15. Nasdaq's 5 Waves

The index climbed by 0.0% or 1.71 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 597 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 334 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 263 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 86/143 or 60.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 29/61 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This figure identifies five waves, cleverly labeled 1 through 5. Waves 1, 3 and 5 are flat instead of sloping upward as in Elliott Wave. Waves 2 and 4 move higher.

I started drawing this figure on wave 5. Notice how the index dips below the red line at the start of Wednesday and rises about the same amount above it in the afternoon session.

What does all of this mean? I'm not sure. I can't recall every seeing anything like this behavior. Under those circumstances, then go with the prevailing trend and that is upward.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,794.92    
 Weekly S2  4,890.95  96.03   
 Monthly S1  4,933.33  42.38   
 Weekly S1  4,981.34  48.01   
 Weekly Pivot  5,022.00  40.65   
 Daily S2  5,025.85  3.85   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Monthly Pivot  5,026.58  0.73   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  5,048.79  22.21   
 Low  5,050.21  1.42   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,068.28  18.07   
 Close  5,071.74  3.46   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  5,072.44  0.70   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  5,073.16  0.72   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,073.87  0.71   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,079.45  5.58   
 Daily R1  5,096.10  16.66   
 High  5,097.52  1.42   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  5,112.39  14.87   
 Daily R2  5,120.47  8.07   
 Weekly R2  5,153.05  32.58   
 Monthly R1  5,164.99  11.94   
 Monthly R2  5,258.24  93.25   

Wednesday 5/20/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Even as the index has moved higher over the last day or two, the indicator has dropped into neutral territory. That suggests a slackening of momentum and that means the index could turn bearish.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The most recent price bar is white: neutral.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/19/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.1% or 26.32 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1267 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 651 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 616 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 92/154 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 24/44 or 54.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index has been trending higher at a sedate pace for the last several days. I show that trend highlighted by red lines.

As they say, a trend in motion tends to stay in motion. One can expect that the index will continue to move higher...until it doesn't.

Yes, I know. That doesn't help. But it's the best I've got.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,561.97    
 Weekly S2  17,817.55  255.57   
 Monthly S1  17,930.43  112.88   
 Weekly S1  18,058.21  127.79   
 Monthly Pivot  18,101.57  43.36   
 Weekly Pivot  18,165.47  63.89   
 Daily S2  18,208.28  42.81   
 Low  18,244.26  35.98   
 Daily S1  18,253.58  9.32   
 Open  18,267.25  13.67   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,275.31  8.06   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,284.90  9.59   
 Daily Pivot  18,289.56  4.66   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,294.49  4.93   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  18,298.88  4.39   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  18,325.54  26.66   
 Daily R1  18,334.86  9.32   
 Daily R2  18,370.84  35.98   
 Weekly R1  18,406.13  35.29   
 Monthly R1  18,470.03  63.89   
 Weekly R2  18,513.39  43.36   
 Monthly R2  18,641.17  127.79   

Monday 5/18/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

This shows a recent diamond top outlined here in red. It's not a pretty example of one but well-shaped diamonds are rare. Just ask any woman.

The two thick blue lines I drew connect a few peaks and valleys. It gives a hint of the direction I see the index taking over the coming weeks.

I expect the index to bounce between those two lines. It looks like we're moving up toward the top line now.

However, the index is at resistance setup by the top of the diamond. We could tumble here or at least pause in the climb to the top line. I can see a pause happening for a few days but then expect a resumption of the up move.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 85.94 points.
Tuesday: Down 36.94 points.
Wednesday: Down 7.74 points.
Thursday: Up 191.75 points.
Friday: Up 20.32 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 81.45 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 44.74 points or 0.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 6.63 points or 0.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.1% down from the high of 18,288.63 on 03/02/2015.
     7.2% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     1.4% down from the high of 5,119.83 on 04/27/2015.
     10.6% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 2,125.92 on 04/27/2015.
     7.2% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Housing starts8:30 TB-Number of homes beginning construction.
Building permits8:30 TB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Minutes2:00 W?Minutes of the prior Federal Reserve meeting.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Existing home sales10:00 ThCCounts sales of used homes.
Leading indicators10:00 ThD-Summary of already known reports.
Consumer price index8:30 FB+Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services.

Options Expiration

VIX expires on Wednesday.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 05/15/2015, the CPI had:

3 bearish patterns,
21 bullish patterns,
385 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 87.5%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,196  18,234  18,253  18,292  18,311 
Weekly  17,809  18,041  18,157  18,389  18,505 
Monthly  17,553  17,913  18,093  18,452  18,632 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,114  2,118  2,121  2,125  2,128 
Weekly  2,072  2,098  2,111  2,136  2,149 
Monthly  2,048  2,085  2,106  2,143  2,164 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,021  5,035  5,049  5,062  5,076 
Weekly  4,883  4,966  5,014  5,097  5,145 
Monthly  4,787  4,918  5,019  5,149  5,250 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 30.7%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 40.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 29.6%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 42.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 44.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 39.3%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
46Triangle, symmetrical
14Head-and-shoulders top
13Triangle, ascending
13Triangle, descending
9Rectangle top
8Rising wedge
6Broadening bottom
5Double Top, Adam and Eve
4Pipe bottom
4Broadening top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Human Resources1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Cement and Aggregates2. Human Resources
3. Retail Building Supply3. Retail Building Supply
4. Furn/Home Furnishings4. Chemical (Basic)
5. Biotechnology5. Furn/Home Furnishings
50. Machinery50. Machinery
51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
52. Petroleum (Producing)52. Petroleum (Producing)
53. Short ETFs53. Short ETFs
54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Saturday 5/16/15. Support This FREE Website!

When you click on an ad, the money I get helps support this free website. Please don't click on ads just for that reason. If you are interested in an ad, then click on it.

The same can be said of book sales. I show them above but they are listed on most pages on the left. If you click on one of my books, the link will take you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING while there, then I get a small referral fee. That fee doesn't increase your cost at all, but it does help support the website.

If you happen to buy one of my books, then I get a small royalty from that, too. To find out more about my books, click this link.

At last count, my books have been translated into nine languages so check Amazon.com in your country for details.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/15/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 27 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 590 stocks searched, or 4.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 16 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ALKTriangle, descending      01/29/201505/14/2015Air Transport
AMWDChannel      03/25/201505/14/2015Building Materials
BZHTriangle, symmetrical      04/21/201505/14/2015Homebuilding
CSCRectangle bottom      03/26/201505/13/2015Computer Software and Svcs
CSGSBroadening top, right-angled and descending      02/24/201505/14/2015Computer Software and Svcs
FASTTriangle, ascending      02/19/201505/14/2015Retail Building Supply
FDXBroadening bottom      04/21/201505/11/2015Air Transport
GMETriangle, symmetrical      03/11/201505/14/2015Retail (Special Lines)
BGCPipe bottom      04/27/201505/04/2015Computers and Peripherals
GILDBroadening top      04/13/201505/14/2015Biotechnology
DHIDiamond bottom      04/30/201505/14/2015Homebuilding
IDTIBroadening top      02/12/201505/13/2015Semiconductor
IPARPipe bottom      04/27/201505/04/2015Toiletries/Cosmetics
LXKTriangle, ascending      02/17/201505/14/2015Computers and Peripherals
MHead-and-shoulders top      03/20/201505/08/2015Retail Store
NBroadening bottom      03/11/201505/08/2015E-Commerce
NETriangle, symmetrical      04/15/201505/12/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PAYXTriangle, symmetrical      03/30/201505/13/2015Computer Software and Svcs
TZOOTriangle, symmetrical      04/27/201505/14/2015Internet
XLNXTriangle, symmetrical      04/21/201505/13/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
IYMDiamond top      04/27/201505/14/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
IYKTriangle, symmetrical      02/02/201505/13/2015Household Products
IYCRectangle top      02/20/201505/14/2015Retail Store
PJPTriangle, symmetrical      04/30/201505/14/2015Drug
ILFTriangle, symmetrical      04/28/201505/14/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
SSOTriangle, ascending      02/25/201505/14/2015Long ETFs
XLPTriangle, symmetrical      02/02/201505/13/2015Household Products
XLVTriangle, symmetrical      03/11/201505/14/2015Drug
SPYTriangle, ascending      02/25/201505/14/2015Long ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/07/2015 and 05/14/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 82 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $66.13
1 Month avg volatility: $1.61. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.38 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.66%
Volume: 974,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,283,860 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 01/29/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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American Woodmark Corp (AMWD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 72 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $51.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.20 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.15%
Volume: 120,600 shares. 3 month avg: 143,257 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/25/2015 to 05/14/2015

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Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 415 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $17.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.49 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.75%
Volume: 653,600 shares. 3 month avg: 567,257 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/21/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Computer Sciences Corp (CSC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 184 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $67.28
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $71.13 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.71%
Volume: 3,602,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,490,785 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 03/26/2015 to 05/13/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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CSG Systems International Inc (CSGS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 81 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $30.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.78 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.66%
Volume: 193,100 shares. 3 month avg: 237,978 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 02/24/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Fastenal Company (FAST)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 396 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $43.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.38 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.02%
Volume: 1,460,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,497,586 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/19/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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FedEx (FDX)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 339 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $173.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $168.13 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.12%
Volume: 1,478,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,633,003 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 04/21/2015 to 05/11/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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GameStop Corp (GME)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 483 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $39.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.05 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.89%
Volume: 747,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,572,445 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/11/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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General Cable (BGC)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 23 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $18.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.42 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.84%
Volume: 336,200 shares. 3 month avg: 742,645 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/27/2015 to 05/04/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 326 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $108.74
1 Month avg volatility: $2.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $113.51 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.36%
Volume: 12,759,800 shares. 3 month avg: 10,868,180 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/13/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Horton, D.R. Inc. (DHI)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 226 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $25.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.97 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.98%
Volume: 3,837,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,657,026 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 04/30/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Integrated Device Technology (IDTI)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 57 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $21.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.30 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.96%
Volume: 3,775,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,804,242 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 02/12/2015 to 05/13/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Inter Parfums Inc. (IPAR)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 102 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $33.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.96 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.13%
Volume: 78,800 shares. 3 month avg: 78,565 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/27/2015 to 05/04/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Lexmark International Inc. (LXK)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 268 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $44.73
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.72 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.38%
Volume: 745,700 shares. 3 month avg: 845,606 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/17/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Macys, Inc (M)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 313 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $63.22
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $65.92 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.85%
Volume: 12,724,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,410,458 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/20/2015 to 05/08/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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NetSuite Inc (N)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 495 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $96.79
1 Month avg volatility: $2.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $88.92 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.34%
Volume: 285,200 shares. 3 month avg: 411,134 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 03/11/2015 to 05/08/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Noble Corporation (NE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 554 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $17.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.41 or 9.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.20%
Volume: 7,737,600 shares. 3 month avg: 8,170,672 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/15/2015 to 05/12/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Paychex Inc (PAYX)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 262 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $49.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.93 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.14%
Volume: 1,550,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,834,778 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/30/2015 to 05/13/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 228 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $13.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.85 or 11.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.94%
Volume: 160,500 shares. 3 month avg: 187,140 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/27/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Xilinx Inc (XLNX)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 284 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $44.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.17 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.93%
Volume: 6,317,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,448,585 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/21/2015 to 05/13/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ US Basic Materials sector index fnd (IYM)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 347 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $85.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $87.20 or 2.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.66%
Volume: 41,900 shares. 3 month avg: 73,720 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/27/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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DJ US consumer goods (household goods) (IYK)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 289 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $107.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $105.40 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.95%
Volume: 39,900 shares. 3 month avg: 110,060 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/02/2015 to 05/13/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ US consumer svcs index fnd (retail) (IYC)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 157 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $144.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $140.60 or 2.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.58%
Volume: 45,700 shares. 3 month avg: 74,278 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/20/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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PowerShares Dynamic Pharmaceuticals (PJP)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 115 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $76.65
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $73.25 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.21%
Volume: 122,200 shares. 3 month avg: 239,411 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/30/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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S and P Latin America 40 Index fund (ILF)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 447 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $32.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.46 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.05%
Volume: 387,300 shares. 3 month avg: 578,318 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/28/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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S and P long 2x Ultra SP 500 ProShares (SSO)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 209 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $136.25
1 Month avg volatility: $2.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $130.22 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.19%
Volume: 2,848,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,408,789 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/25/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector (XLP)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 287 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $49.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.24 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.27%
Volume: 6,167,300 shares. 3 month avg: 7,182,666 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/02/2015 to 05/13/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SPDR Health Care Select Sector (XLV)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 197 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $74.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.60 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.38%
Volume: 6,894,400 shares. 3 month avg: 9,448,754 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/11/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SPDR S and P 500 (SPY)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 280 out of 582
5/14/15 close: $212.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $207.44 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.25%
Volume: 95,827,400 shares. 3 month avg: 107,606,965 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/25/2015 to 05/14/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Thursday 5/14/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.1% or 5.5 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 629 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 351 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 278 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 85/142 or 59.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 29/61 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The Nasdaq formed a descending triangle today. I show that outlined in the chart in red.

The breakout from this pattern is downward 64% of the time, based on results used in my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.

Unpublished and updated statistics suggest it's closer to 50%.

Anyway, the pattern is bearish so my bias would be toward a lower close on Thursday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,717.89    
 Weekly S2  4,815.71  97.82   
 Monthly S1  4,849.79  34.08   
 Weekly S1  4,898.70  48.91   
 Daily S2  4,955.24  56.54   
 Daily S1  4,968.46  13.23   
 Weekly Pivot  4,971.16  2.70   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  4,977.49  6.33   
 Close  4,981.69  4.20   
 Monthly Pivot  4,984.81  3.12   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  4,990.72  5.91   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,991.04  0.33   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  4,991.42  0.38   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,995.23  3.81   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,999.42  4.19   
 Daily R1  5,003.94  4.53   
 High  5,012.97  9.03   
 Daily R2  5,026.20  13.23   
 Weekly R1  5,054.15  27.95   
 Monthly R1  5,116.71  62.56   
 Weekly R2  5,126.61  9.90   
 Monthly R2  5,251.73  125.12   

Wednesday 5/13/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I joined the peaks with one trendline and valleys with another and the chart shows the two shapes I found.

The index shows a ascending triangle or even an up-sloping channel (depending on when you start it), but the bottom line (chart pattern indicator) shows a down-sloping channel.

That downward slope suggests the bearish turn of the index of these last few days is not over.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/12/15. Hedge Fund Performance

The index dropped by -0.5% or -85.94 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 726 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 359 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 367 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 92/154 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/43 or 53.5% of the time.

Here's an interesting tidbit from the May 2015 issue of Fortune magazine.

The research firm HFR gathered data on the performance of hedge funds with activist managers running them. Those managers lobby companies to change their ways and boost shareholder value, often for the short term. But how well do their own hedge funds perform?

The funds only beat the returns of the S&P 500 index in 3 out of past 8 years, or 38% of the time, and that includes a small marginal gain this year (so far).

HFR tracked the performance of more than 70 hedge funds and found that if you bought the average activist hedge fund starting in 2008, your cumulative return would be 19% compared to 65% for the S&P 500 (including dividends).

The article concluded that you'd do better by buying an index fund that tracked the performance of the S&P 500.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,427.30    
 Weekly S2  17,542.40  115.09   
 Monthly S1  17,766.24  223.84   
 Weekly S1  17,823.78  57.55   
 Monthly Pivot  17,985.73  161.95   
 Weekly Pivot  18,014.51  28.77   
 Daily S2  18,020.57  6.06   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S1  18,062.87  42.30   
 Low  18,089.11  26.24   
 Close  18,105.17  16.06   
 Daily Pivot  18,131.41  26.24   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,131.45  0.04   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,144.53  13.08   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,157.61  13.08   
 Daily R1  18,173.71  16.10   
 Open  18,187.78  14.07   
 High  18,199.95  12.17   
 Daily R2  18,242.25  42.30   
 Weekly R1  18,295.89  53.64   
 Monthly R1  18,324.67  28.77   
 Weekly R2  18,486.62  161.95   
 Monthly R2  18,544.16  57.55   

Monday 5/11/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

The index this week made a terrific move on Friday, vaulting above the top of the chart pattern.

I show the index with a symmetrical triangle outlined here in red. Notice that at A the index has closed above the top of the triangle.

That's good news. It suggests an upward move is underway. Of course, the push higher was motivated by good economic news. Will the good news continue and be powerful enough to keep the run coming?

I have no idea, but the charts say yes. Look for a throwback, though. That's when a stock or index breaks out upward but returns to the breakout price or trendline boarder, often within a week of the breakout.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 46.34 points.
Tuesday: Down 142.2 points.
Wednesday: Down 86.22 points.
Thursday: Up 82.08 points.
Friday: Up 267.05 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 167.05 points or 0.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 1.84 points or 0.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 7.81 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.5% down from the high of 18,288.63 on 03/02/2015.
     6.8% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     2.3% down from the high of 5,119.83 on 04/27/2015.
     9.7% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     0.5% down from the high of 2,125.92 on 04/27/2015.
     6.8% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Treasury budget2:00 TDTracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing).
Retail sales8:30 WA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
International trade8:30 WC+Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others.
Business inventories10:00 WC-Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Producer price index8:30 ThB-Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation.
Industrial production9:15 FB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Capacity utilization9:15 FB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 05/08/2015, the CPI had:

1 bearish patterns,
29 bullish patterns,
339 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 96.7%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,838  18,015  18,110  18,286  18,382 
Weekly  17,571  17,881  18,043  18,353  18,515 
Monthly  17,456  17,824  18,014  18,382  18,573 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,083  2,100  2,109  2,125  2,134 
Weekly  2,049  2,082  2,102  2,135  2,155 
Monthly  2,030  2,073  2,100  2,143  2,169 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,977  4,990  5,002  5,016  5,027 
Weekly  4,823  4,913  4,978  5,069  5,134 
Monthly  4,725  4,864  4,992  5,131  5,259 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 43.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 40.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 42.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 17.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months up 39.3%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
49Triangle, symmetrical
16Head-and-shoulders top
15Triangle, descending
13Triangle, ascending
11Rising wedge
10Rectangle top
6Double Top, Adam and Adam
4Broadening bottom
4Triple top
4Double Top, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Human Resources
2. Human Resources2. Cement and Aggregates
3. Retail Building Supply3. Retail Building Supply
4. Chemical (Basic)4. Chemical (Basic)
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. Packaging and Container
50. Machinery50. Metal Fabricating
51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.51. Machinery
52. Petroleum (Producing)52. Petroleum (Producing)
53. Short ETFs53. Short ETFs
54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/8/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 28 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 590 stocks searched, or 4.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ALLRectangle top      12/18/201405/05/2015Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
APCDouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/20/201505/05/2015Petroleum (Producing)
BCPCBroadening bottom      03/10/201505/05/2015Chemical (Specialty)
CSCRectangle bottom      03/26/201505/07/2015Computer Software and Svcs
RETriangle, descending      04/16/201505/07/2015Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
FOEFlag      05/04/201505/07/2015Chemical (Specialty)
FDPScallop, ascending and inverted      03/11/201505/06/2015Food Processing
GPNTriangle, symmetrical      04/22/201505/07/2015Computer Software and Svcs
GSOLTriangle, symmetrical      03/11/201505/01/2015Advertising
GESTriangle, descending      03/19/201505/05/2015Apparel
IVCTriangle, symmetrical      04/22/201505/07/2015Medical Supplies
JNJTriangle, symmetrical      02/12/201505/07/2015Medical Supplies
MRODouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/20/201505/05/2015Petroleum (Integrated)
MONTriangle, symmetrical      03/26/201505/06/2015Chemical (Diversified)
NKERectangle top      03/26/201505/07/2015Shoe
OXYDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/15/201505/06/2015Petroleum (Producing)
PESFlag, high and tight      03/16/201505/05/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PEGTriangle, symmetrical      01/22/201505/01/2015Electric Utility (East)
SFGPennant      04/27/201505/07/2015Insurance (Life)
TSCOPipe top      04/20/201504/27/2015Retail Building Supply
UGIBroadening top      04/24/201505/06/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
YHOOBroadening bottom      02/09/201505/05/2015Internet
IAIRectangle top      03/30/201505/07/2015Securities Brokerage
IYCRectangle top      02/20/201505/06/2015Retail Store
IEODouble Top, Eve and Eve      04/16/201505/05/2015Petroleum (Integrated)
IXNBroadening wedge, ascending      03/30/201505/07/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
XLFBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      04/07/201505/07/2015Investment Co. (Domestic)
XLITriangle, symmetrical      03/18/201505/07/2015Investment Co. (Domestic)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/30/2015 and 05/07/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Allstate Corp (ALL)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 293 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $67.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.37 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.60%
Volume: 4,320,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,573,371 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/18/2014 to 05/05/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 384 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $88.77
1 Month avg volatility: $2.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $94.26 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.60%
Volume: 5,227,700 shares. 3 month avg: 4,613,148 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 04/20/2015 to 05/05/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

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Balchem Corp (BCPC)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 472 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $57.98
1 Month avg volatility: $1.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.42 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.00%
Volume: 247,500 shares. 3 month avg: 170,289 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 03/10/2015 to 05/05/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Computer Sciences Corp (CSC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 225 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $64.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $66.81 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.43%
Volume: 737,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,516,718 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 03/26/2015 to 05/07/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Everest Re Group Ltd (RE)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 271 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $180.38
1 Month avg volatility: $2.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $185.58 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.92%
Volume: 342,600 shares. 3 month avg: 315,734 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 04/16/2015 to 05/07/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Ferro Corp (FOE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 199 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $13.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.24 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.79%
Volume: 405,300 shares. 3 month avg: 465,162 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 05/04/2015 to 05/07/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 165 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $36.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.83 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.66%
Volume: 109,700 shares. 3 month avg: 244,946 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 03/11/2015 to 05/06/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Global Payments Inc (GPN)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 58 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $101.36
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $97.49 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.55%
Volume: 504,900 shares. 3 month avg: 547,218 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/22/2015 to 05/07/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Global Sources Ltd (GSOL)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 562 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $5.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.91 or 10.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.68%
Volume: 31,400 shares. 3 month avg: 26,426 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/11/2015 to 05/01/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Guess Inc. (GES)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 532 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $18.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.28 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -12.43%
Volume: 1,128,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,780,118 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/19/2015 to 05/05/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 31 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $20.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.08 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.26%
Volume: 92,300 shares. 3 month avg: 171,375 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/22/2015 to 05/07/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 465 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $99.66
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $96.86 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.70%
Volume: 6,398,000 shares. 3 month avg: 8,710,332 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/12/2015 to 05/07/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Marathon Oil (MRO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 522 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $28.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.84 or 10.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.23%
Volume: 11,290,100 shares. 3 month avg: 7,219,514 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 04/20/2015 to 05/05/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

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Monsanto Co (MON)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 267 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $119.13
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $112.19 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.28%
Volume: 3,667,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,039,931 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/26/2015 to 05/06/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Nike Inc (NKE)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 224 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $101.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $97.54 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.51%
Volume: 2,763,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,531,480 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/26/2015 to 05/07/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 490 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $77.61
1 Month avg volatility: $1.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $81.72 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.72%
Volume: 6,693,400 shares. 3 month avg: 4,724,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/15/2015 to 05/06/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Pioneer Energy Services (PES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 443 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $7.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.57 or 14.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 39.17%
Volume: 1,271,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,556,457 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/16/2015 to 05/05/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Public Service Enterprise Group PEG (PEG)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 347 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $41.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.23 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.33%
Volume: 2,903,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,211,923 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/22/2015 to 05/01/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Stancorp Financial Group Inc (SFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 235 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $73.82
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.06 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.67%
Volume: 99,100 shares. 3 month avg: 145,285 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 04/27/2015 to 05/07/2015
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Tractor Supply Co (TSCO)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 94 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $85.69
1 Month avg volatility: $1.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $89.40 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.72%
Volume: 691,700 shares. 3 month avg: 824,595 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/20/2015 to 04/27/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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UGI Corp. (UGI)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 476 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $34.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.27 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.53%
Volume: 871,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,206,792 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/24/2015 to 05/06/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 451 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $43.87
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.80 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.15%
Volume: 28,198,100 shares. 3 month avg: 13,907,125 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 02/09/2015 to 05/05/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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DJ US Broker-dealers index fund (IAI)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 251 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $42.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.45 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.68%
Volume: 16,600 shares. 3 month avg: 71,795 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/30/2015 to 05/07/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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DJ US consumer svcs index fnd (retail) (IYC)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 136 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $143.54
1 Month avg volatility: $1.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $139.67 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.20%
Volume: 201,800 shares. 3 month avg: 76,617 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/20/2015 to 05/06/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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DJ US Oil and Gas (IEO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 397 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $76.03
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.38 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.44%
Volume: 247,600 shares. 3 month avg: 141,917 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 04/16/2015 to 05/05/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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S and P Global Tech Sector Index fund (IXN)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 255 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $98.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $100.39 or 2.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.68%
Volume: 45,600 shares. 3 month avg: 43,746 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 03/30/2015 to 05/07/2015
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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SPDR Financial Select Sector (XLF)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 322 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $24.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.95 or 2.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.29%
Volume: 31,885,100 shares. 3 month avg: 28,900,811 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 04/07/2015 to 05/07/2015
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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SPDR Industrial Select Sector (XLI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 331 out of 582
5/7/15 close: $55.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.33 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.17%
Volume: 10,662,400 shares. 3 month avg: 8,512,305 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/18/2015 to 05/07/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 5/7/15. Nasdaq Measured Move Down

The index dropped by -0.4% or -19.69 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 398 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 198 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 200 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 85/142 or 59.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 29/60 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This chart shows a large version of the measured move down chart pattern. Apparently measured moves are popular these days (see Tuesday's post).

The first leg down is the AB move. BC is the corrective phase. CD is the second leg down. The idea behind the pattern is that the CD move will equal the AB move in both time and price.

What I found is that price retraces back to the corrective phase often. That's what I expect to happen. I can see the index climbing to 5,000 easily enough. That might take more than a day, of course.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,685.85    
 Weekly S2  4,788.73  102.88   
 Monthly S1  4,802.74  14.02   
 Daily S2  4,847.37  44.63   
 Weekly S1  4,854.18  6.81   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  4,883.51  29.32   
 Low  4,888.17  4.66   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,917.56  29.39   
 Close  4,919.64  2.08   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  4,924.30  4.66   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,926.63  2.33   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,935.71  9.08   
 Open  4,956.70  20.99   
 Daily R1  4,960.44  3.74   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 Monthly Pivot  4,961.29  0.85   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 High  4,965.10  3.81   Yes! The High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  4,987.01  21.91   
 Daily R2  5,001.23  14.23   
 Weekly R1  5,052.46  51.23   
 Monthly R1  5,078.18  25.72   
 Weekly R2  5,185.29  107.10   
 Monthly R2  5,236.73  51.44   

Wednesday 5/6/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

As the chart shows, the indicator has turned lower and has been trending down for about a month since the April peak. The index has been trending higher until the last week or so.

This is a sign of bearish divergence: the indicator moves in one direction and the index moves in the opposite direction.

But the index is convergent with the indicator now and it has been for the last week, as I said.

This suggests more of a downward move coming, but since the indicator can't go much lower, we will probably see a rebound soon.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/5/15. Dow Flag?

The index climbed by 0.3% or 46.34 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1038 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 574 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 464 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 92/153 or 60.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/43 or 53.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

This picture does not give me an answer of how the index will trade tomorrow. Here's what I think.

The index made a flag, starting at B. The flagpole is the AB move. Unfortunately the move from B to the end of the session (the "flag" part) is not proportional to the height of the pole. It makes me suspicious that the index will collapse to A. Why?

Because the CB move is a measured move up. Those see price return to the corrective phase often (the corrective phase is the horizontal move to the left of A).

I measured how often the return to the corrective phase happens and you can read about it in my book Trading Basics, pictures on the left. Look at Table 4.1 on page 65.

B is also at overhead resistance, suggesting a downward move, too.

The above probabilities say the index will close higher. I think the index is going to drop, at least for a time. After that, who knows?

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,353.11    
 Weekly S2  17,606.28  253.17   
 Monthly S1  17,711.75  105.47   
 Weekly S1  17,838.34  126.59   
 Monthly Pivot  17,943.66  105.32   
 Daily S2  17,968.99  25.33   
 Weekly Pivot  18,006.95  37.96   
 Daily S1  18,019.69  12.74   
 Open  18,026.02  6.33   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  18,026.02  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,067.18  41.16   
 Close  18,070.40  3.22   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  18,076.73  6.33   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,079.89  3.16   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,092.60  12.71   
 Daily R1  18,127.43  34.83   
 High  18,133.76  6.33   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  18,184.47  50.71   
 Weekly R1  18,239.01  54.54   
 Monthly R1  18,302.30  63.29   
 Weekly R2  18,407.62  105.32   
 Monthly R2  18,534.21  126.59   

Monday 5/4/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

The Dow transports appear in the figure on the daily scale.

I drew the horizontal red line along the valleys and continued to the right, to the present day. That line represents support. In fact, the index bounced off support this last Friday.

I expect the index to continue moving higher, but this is earnings season, so anything goes.

I drew another red line (A) along the two peaks and extended it to the right, sloping down.

This line may act as overhead resistance to an upward move. If the index closes above this line, then I expect it will continue to push higher, perhaps to new highs. The entire move will take more than a week, of course but it pays to know where a potential roadblock is.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 42.17 points.
Tuesday: Up 72.17 points.
Wednesday: Down 74.61 points.
Thursday: Down 195.01 points.
Friday: Up 183.54 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 56.08 points or 0.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 86.69 points or 1.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 9.4 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.4% down from the high of 18,288.63 on 03/02/2015.
     5.8% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     2.2% down from the high of 5,119.83 on 04/27/2015.
     9.7% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     0.8% down from the high of 2,125.92 on 04/27/2015.
     6.4% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Factory orders10:00 MD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
Trade balance8:30 TC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
Productivity & costs8:30 WD+Cost of producing a unit of output.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Consumer credit3:00 ThD-Measures auto, credit card and other debt.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Wholesale inventories10:00 FD-Wholesale sales and inventory statistics.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,801  17,913  17,971  18,082  18,140 
Weekly  17,591  17,807  17,992  18,208  18,392 
Monthly  17,338  17,681  17,928  18,271  18,519 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,080  2,094  2,101  2,115  2,122 
Weekly  2,056  2,082  2,104  2,130  2,152 
Monthly  2,017  2,062  2,094  2,140  2,172 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,949  4,977  4,991  5,020  5,034 
Weekly  4,817  4,911  5,016  5,110  5,214 
Monthly  4,714  4,860  4,990  5,135  5,265 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.6%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 40.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 26.9%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 42.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 29.7%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 39.3%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
48Triangle, symmetrical
15Triangle, descending
14Triangle, ascending
13Rising wedge
13Head-and-shoulders top
9Rectangle top
6Diamond top
5Head-and-shoulders bottom
4Broadening bottom
4Triple top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Human Resources1. Human Resources
2. Cement and Aggregates2. Drug
3. Retail Building Supply3. Retail Building Supply
4. Chemical (Basic)4. Biotechnology
5. Packaging and Container5. Information Services
50. Metal Fabricating50. Machinery
51. Machinery51. Metal Fabricating
52. Petroleum (Producing)52. Petroleum (Producing)
53. Short ETFs53. Short ETFs
54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Saturday 5/2/15. New Research: Peak and Valley Width.

I did a study on the width of peaks and valleys and found that:

  • Narrow peaks in a declining price trend outperform.
  • Narrow valleys that act as reversals of the primary price trend also do well.

To read the complete article, click the above link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/1/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 37 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 591 stocks searched, or 6.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 19 bullish chart patterns this week and 11 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AYIRectangle top      04/02/201504/30/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
APDChannel      03/10/201504/29/2015Chemical (Diversified)
AATriangle, symmetrical      03/27/201504/30/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
ALLRectangle top      12/18/201404/30/2015Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AEOHead-and-shoulders top      03/31/201504/24/2015Apparel
ABCRectangle top      03/20/201504/29/2015Biotechnology
CNPTriangle, symmetrical      04/09/201504/30/2015Electric Utility (Central)
CFTriangle, symmetrical      03/25/201504/30/2015Chemical (Basic)
CLNEFlag, high and tight      03/16/201504/30/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
CNLRectangle bottom      02/05/201504/30/2015Electric Utility (Central)
CSCRectangle bottom      03/26/201504/30/2015Computer Software and Svcs
CCRNTriangle, symmetrical      02/26/201504/30/2015Human Resources
^DJUTriangle, ascending      03/11/201504/28/2015None
^DJITriangle, symmetrical      03/02/201504/30/2015None
FETriangle, ascending      02/25/201504/30/2015Electric Utility (East)
FISVTriangle, descending      03/20/201504/30/2015Computer Software and Svcs
FORMDead-cat bounce      04/30/201504/30/2015Semiconductor
GMEDouble Top, Eve and Eve      04/16/201504/27/2015Retail (Special Lines)
IDXXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/23/201504/24/2015Drug
KATEBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      03/23/201504/30/2015Apparel
KBALHead-and-shoulders top      03/23/201504/28/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
LOWTriangle, descending      03/18/201504/24/2015Retail Building Supply
MTRXFlag      04/17/201504/30/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
MGEEHead-and-shoulders top      03/24/201504/24/2015Electric Utility (Central)
MSRising wedge      03/12/201504/30/2015Securities Brokerage
NKERectangle top      03/26/201504/30/2015Shoe
PCGTriangle, symmetrical      02/24/201504/30/2015Electric Utility (West)
PORHead-and-shoulders top      03/24/201504/27/2015Electric Utility (West)
ROKTriangle, symmetrical      02/18/201504/29/2015Diversified Co.
RTITriangle, ascending      03/27/201504/30/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
SOTriangle, symmetrical      03/11/201504/30/2015Electric Utility (East)
VLOHead-and-shoulders top      02/23/201504/24/2015Petroleum (Integrated)
PAYTriangle, ascending      02/20/201504/30/2015Computer Software and Svcs
IHFTriple top      03/23/201504/27/2015Long ETFs
TURPipe bottom      04/13/201504/20/2015Long ETFs
PEJHead-and-shoulders top      03/02/201504/27/2015Long ETFs
PHOTriangle, ascending      02/24/201504/30/2015Investment Co. (Domestic)
SKFTriangle, symmetrical      03/10/201504/30/2015Short ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/23/2015 and 04/30/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Acuity Brands, Inc (AYI)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 77 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $166.95
1 Month avg volatility: $3.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $160.00 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.19%
Volume: 441,200 shares. 3 month avg: 343,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 04/02/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 167 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $143.43
1 Month avg volatility: $2.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $137.29 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.55%
Volume: 4,796,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,084,874 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/10/2015 to 04/29/2015

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Alcoa (AA)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 541 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $13.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.80 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.01%
Volume: 25,157,300 shares. 3 month avg: 25,626,046 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/27/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Allstate Corp (ALL)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 179 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $69.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $67.70 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.84%
Volume: 3,440,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,408,686 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/18/2014 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 62 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $15.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.90 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.63%
Volume: 6,216,100 shares. 3 month avg: 4,369,477 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/31/2015 to 04/24/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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AmerisourceBergen Corp (ABC)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 15 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $114.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $109.26 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.77%
Volume: 5,198,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,993,545 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/20/2015 to 04/29/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 521 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $20.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.02 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.50%
Volume: 4,198,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,011,657 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/09/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 158 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $287.47
1 Month avg volatility: $5.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $274.99 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.48%
Volume: 744,000 shares. 3 month avg: 640,258 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/25/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 18 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $9.87
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.59 or 23.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 97.60%
Volume: 4,603,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,078,522 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/16/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Cleco Corp (CNL)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 352 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $54.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.09 or 1.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.35%
Volume: 406,700 shares. 3 month avg: 400,978 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 02/05/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Computer Sciences Corp (CSC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 249 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $64.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $66.93 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.22%
Volume: 1,744,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,571,989 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 03/26/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Cross Country Healthcare Inc (CCRN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 117 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $11.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.11 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.06%
Volume: 218,900 shares. 3 month avg: 270,160 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/26/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/30/15 close: $586.63
1 Month avg volatility: $7.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $566.52 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.09%
Volume: 18,584,200 shares. 3 month avg: 13,662,212 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/11/2015 to 04/28/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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DJ 30 Industrials (^DJI)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/30/15 close: $17,840.52
1 Month avg volatility: $175.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17,423.30 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.10%
Volume: 129,211,400 shares. 3 month avg: 102,900,763 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/02/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 398 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $35.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.34 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.90%
Volume: 2,794,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,690,175 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/25/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Fiserv, Inc (FISV)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 126 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $77.60
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $80.87 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.34%
Volume: 1,245,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,055,069 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/20/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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FormFactor Inc. (FORM)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 149 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $7.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.80 or 14.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.33%
Volume: 2,613,000 shares. 3 month avg: 442,271 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 04/30/2015 to 04/30/2015

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GameStop Corp (GME)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 470 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $38.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.21 or 6.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.02%
Volume: 1,135,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,724,531 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 04/16/2015 to 04/27/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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IDEXX Laboratories, Inc (IDXX)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 502 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $125.37
1 Month avg volatility: $4.22. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $139.05 or 10.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.44%
Volume: 953,900 shares. 3 month avg: 391,174 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/23/2015 to 04/24/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Kate Spade and Company (KATE)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 84 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $32.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.90 or 6.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.16%
Volume: 1,602,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,452,129 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 03/23/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Kimball International, Inc. (KBAL)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 579 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $10.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.26 or 11.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.96%
Volume: 109,000 shares. 3 month avg: 132,651 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/23/2015 to 04/28/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Lowes Companies, Inc (LOW)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 61 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $68.86
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $73.33 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.09%
Volume: 10,949,300 shares. 3 month avg: 4,832,048 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/18/2015 to 04/24/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Matrix Service Co. (MTRX)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 507 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $21.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.68 or 10.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.57%
Volume: 189,800 shares. 3 month avg: 255,725 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 04/17/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 422 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $41.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $44.54 or 7.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.06%
Volume: 106,000 shares. 3 month avg: 76,097 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/24/2015 to 04/24/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Morgan Stanley (MS)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 217 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $37.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.94 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.84%
Volume: 10,402,100 shares. 3 month avg: 9,897,015 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/12/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Nike Inc (NKE)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 241 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $98.84
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $95.84 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.80%
Volume: 3,248,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,599,103 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/26/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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PG and E (PCG)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 204 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $52.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.37 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.60%
Volume: 5,687,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,246,174 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/24/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Portland General Electric Co. (POR)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 385 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $35.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.94 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.06%
Volume: 1,108,300 shares. 3 month avg: 676,406 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/24/2015 to 04/27/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 214 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $118.60
1 Month avg volatility: $2.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $111.95 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.65%
Volume: 3,902,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,226,691 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/18/2015 to 04/29/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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RTI International Metals Inc. (RTI)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 7 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $37.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.99 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 49.05%
Volume: 583,400 shares. 3 month avg: 753,469 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/27/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Southern Company (SO)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 435 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $44.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.77 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.79%
Volume: 8,462,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,835,975 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/11/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Valero Energy (VLO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 99 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $56.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.31 or 7.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.95%
Volume: 8,055,400 shares. 3 month avg: 7,753,720 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 02/23/2015 to 04/24/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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VeriFone Systems, Inc (PAY)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 415 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $35.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.35 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.84%
Volume: 1,277,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,414,426 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/20/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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iShares DJ US Healthcare Provider (IHF)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 108 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $128.54
1 Month avg volatility: $1.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $134.86 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.59%
Volume: 78,100 shares. 3 month avg: 69,338 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 03/23/2015 to 04/27/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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MSCI Turkey Index (TUR)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 523 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $46.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.54 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.64%
Volume: 251,100 shares. 3 month avg: 430,691 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/13/2015 to 04/20/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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PowerShares Dynamic Leisure (PEJ)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 236 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $36.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.10 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.76%
Volume: 52,300 shares. 3 month avg: 61,028 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/02/2015 to 04/27/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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PowerShares Water Resources (PHO)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 395 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $25.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.58 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.29%
Volume: 52,900 shares. 3 month avg: 101,442 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/24/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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UltraShort 2x Financials ProShares (SKF)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 509 out of 583
4/30/15 close: $50.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.93 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.05%
Volume: 36,000 shares. 3 month avg: 41,865 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/10/2015 to 04/30/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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