Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 05/17/2019
  Industrials: 25,764 -98.68 -0.4%  
  Transports: 10,492 -113.76 -1.1%  
  Utilities: 790 +3.91 +0.5%  
  Nasdaq: 7,816 -81.77 -1.0%  
  S&P 500: 2,860 -16.79 -0.6%  
YTD
 +10.4%  
 +14.4%  
 +10.8%  
 +17.8%  
 +14.1%  
  Tom's Targets    Overview: 05/14/2019  
  Up arrow26,600 or 25,000 by 06/01/2019
  Up arrow10,700 or 10,000 by 06/01/2019
  Up arrow825 or 755 by 06/01/2019
  Up arrow8,100 or 7,400 by 06/01/2019
  Up arrow2,900 or 2,740 by 06/01/2019
As of 05/17/2019
  Industrials: 25,764 -98.68 -0.4%  
  Transports: 10,492 -113.76 -1.1%  
  Utilities: 790 +3.91 +0.5%  
  Nasdaq: 7,816 -81.77 -1.0%  
  S&P 500: 2,860 -16.79 -0.6%  
YTD
 +10.4%  
 +14.4%  
 +10.8%  
 +17.8%  
 +14.1%  
  Tom's Targets    Overview: 05/14/2019  
  Up arrow26,600 or 25,000 by 06/01/2019
  Up arrow10,700 or 10,000 by 06/01/2019
  Up arrow825 or 755 by 06/01/2019
  Up arrow8,100 or 7,400 by 06/01/2019
  Up arrow2,900 or 2,740 by 06/01/2019

 

March 2019 Headlines

Archives


Friday 3/29/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 15 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 2.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEODouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/08/201903/25/2019Apparel
APOGDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      03/07/201903/25/2019Building Materials
ASHBroadening top, right-angled and descending      02/28/201903/28/2019Chemical (Basic)
CSGSRectangle top      02/11/201903/28/2019IT Services
EFIIBroadening top      02/28/201903/28/2019Computers and Peripherals
FEYETriangle, symmetrical      11/30/201803/28/2019Computer Software and Svcs
GPSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/15/201903/25/2019Apparel
IBPPipe bottom      03/11/201903/18/2019Retail Building Supply
LAWSRectangle bottom      11/06/201803/28/2019Metal Fabricating
PETSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/08/201903/22/2019Medical Services
RLTriple bottom      03/08/201903/25/2019Apparel
RTNTriangle, symmetrical      03/07/201903/28/2019Aerospace/Defense
RLIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/07/201903/25/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
TKRRectangle top      01/16/201903/28/2019Metal Fabricating
VFCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/08/201903/25/2019Apparel
XLEDiamond top      03/18/201903/28/2019Petroleum (Integrated)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/21/2019 and 03/28/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 373 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $21.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.29 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.35%
Volume: 4,513,300 shares. 3 month avg: 4,309,748 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/08/2019 to 03/25/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Apogee Enterprises (APOG)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 389 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $36.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.77 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.48%
Volume: 134,000 shares. 3 month avg: 243,183 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 03/07/2019 to 03/25/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Ashland Inc. (ASH)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 308 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $78.91
1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $75.24 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.20%
Volume: 592,000 shares. 3 month avg: 610,854 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 02/28/2019 to 03/28/2019
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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CSG Systems International Inc (CSGS)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 151 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $42.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.91 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 32.33%
Volume: 85,900 shares. 3 month avg: 127,302 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/11/2019 to 03/28/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Electronics For Imaging, Inc. (EFII)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 491 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $26.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $27.79 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.81%
Volume: 218,800 shares. 3 month avg: 733,492 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 02/28/2019 to 03/28/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/16/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/17/2019 and a 38% chance by 07/17/2019.
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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FireEye Inc (FEYE)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 242 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $16.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.58 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.04%
Volume: 1,796,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,815,435 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/30/2018 to 03/28/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Gap Inc. (GPS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 347 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $26.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.21 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.36%
Volume: 5,282,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,662,882 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/15/2019 to 03/25/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Installed Building Products Inc (IBP)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 39 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $48.11
1 Month avg volatility: $1.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.83 or 8.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 42.80%
Volume: 157,300 shares. 3 month avg: 201,345 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/11/2019 to 03/18/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 297 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $30.76
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.62 or 9.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.66%
Volume: 5,000 shares. 3 month avg: 11,408 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 11/06/2018 to 03/28/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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PetMed Express Inc. (PETS)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 560 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $22.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.47 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.69%
Volume: 460,900 shares. 3 month avg: 739,945 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/08/2019 to 03/22/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 293 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $129.40
1 Month avg volatility: $2.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $122.26 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.07%
Volume: 1,358,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,365,482 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 03/08/2019 to 03/25/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 392 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $180.96
1 Month avg volatility: $2.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $173.38 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.00%
Volume: 1,014,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,302,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/07/2019 to 03/28/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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RLI Corp (RLI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 340 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $71.49
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.13 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.62%
Volume: 102,400 shares. 3 month avg: 149,782 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/07/2019 to 03/25/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Timken Co., The (TKR)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 431 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $42.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.64 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.63%
Volume: 673,200 shares. 3 month avg: 853,643 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 01/16/2019 to 03/28/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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V. F. Corp (VFC)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 294 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $87.16
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $84.06 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.18%
Volume: 1,605,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,795,366 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/08/2019 to 03/25/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SPDR Energy Select Sector (XLE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 407 out of 589
3/28/19 close: $66.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.11 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.47%
Volume: 9,149,200 shares. 3 month avg: 11,586,362 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 03/18/2019 to 03/28/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Thursday 3/28/19. Intraday Nasdaq: Head-and-Shoulders?

The index dropped by -0.6% or -48.14 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 311 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 137 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 174 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 55.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 161/293 or 54.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 50/99 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

What struck me is how the index has formed a head-and-shoulders top. On the chart, LS is the left shoulder, and RS is the right one. Between is a head...or maybe two (A).

But it's not a valid head-and-shoulders top yet. Why not?

See that horizontal red line? Price has to close below that line before it can become a valid head-and-shoulders. Because the neckline slopes downward (thin green line connecting B and C), the index might never close below it, so you'd never get an entry signal. Thus, for down-sloping necklines, I use a horizontal one, starting from the right armpit (C).

What's a neckline? It's a line connecting the armpits of the two shoulders. That is, it's a line connecting the lowest minor low between the left shoulder and head (B), and the head and right shoulder (C).

$ $ $

I updated the statistics on descending scallops.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,091.61    
 Monthly S1  7,367.50  275.88   
 Weekly S2  7,504.48  136.98   
 Daily S2  7,515.35  10.87   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  7,573.93  58.58   
 Daily S1  7,579.37  5.44   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  7,582.09  2.72   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  7,608.80  26.71   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,632.04  23.23   
 Close  7,643.38  11.34   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  7,646.10  2.72   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,647.46  1.36   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,662.89  15.43   
 Open  7,702.05  39.16   
 Daily R1  7,710.12  8.07   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  7,712.02  1.90   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 High  7,712.84  0.82   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R2  7,776.85  64.01   
 Weekly R1  7,781.47  4.62   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  7,884.69  103.22   
 Weekly R2  7,919.56  34.87   
 Monthly R2  8,125.99  206.43   

Wednesday 3/27/19. CPI Bullish but for How Long?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The green vertical bar on the far right of the chart, right next to the red one makes me suspicious. A swing from bearish to bullish in the course of one day? You're kidding, right?

Maybe so. If the index continues to rise, then the green bar will stay. My feeling is that it'll disappear. Look at the rest of the chart. Do you see any adjacent red-green combinations?

No. That should tell you a lot. But maybe this time is the exception.

If you look at the price pattern, it looks like the left shoulder and head of a head-and-shoulders top has formed since the start of March. I think it suggests the index will drop more to form the right armpit before climbing again to form the right shoulder.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 44% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 41%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 493 stocks in my database are down an average of 19% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 19%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

The blue line held constant from a week ago but the red line grew worse. It dropped three percentage points so that more stocks (44%, or almost half) in my database are in bear market territory.

The red line is forming a double top pattern suggesting weakness ahead.

I'm inclined to view this chart as bearish and the prior chart as a joke, so I think that short-term we'll retrace more before heading higher.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/26/19. Ascending Triangle Quiz!

I think I have tamed the slider! Here's the link to a new quiz, this one on ascending triangles.

I'll be featuring quizzes more often in a shameless attempt to create more website traffic and more revenue to help support this site.

Tell your friends...(and neighbors, and enemies, and so on ).

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Monday 3/25/19. Market Monday: Utilities Soar. Why?

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

Notice on Friday the index reached a new high even as the Dow plummeted 460 points. What's the deal?

The Federal Reserve announced that they would hold interest rates steady this year. That's good news for utilities which are hungry to borrow money and to do so cheaply.

The Dow industrials considered that bad news. But they also barked about a slowing economy not only in the US but worldwide.

So we have the Dow dropping and the utilities rising.

Does that mean you should buy utility stocks? They are a safe-haven in turbulent times mostly because they pay dividends. I buy them when they are priced low, with dividend rates yielding about 4.5% to 5% and hold them, sometimes selling when they are high.

Mostly, I use them to diversify my portfolio. Even as the market tanks, the yield helps cushion the blow. And in prior years, the utilities have soared above all others. That happened in 2015 when I was loaded with utility stocks. So there's upside potential in capital gains.

The chart shows a broadening top pattern (red lines) with an upward breakout followed by a throwback to the breakout price.

After the throwback completed, the index continued its upward move. That's how it should behave, so I look for more of an upward push.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a bug from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 65.23 points.
Tuesday: Down 26.72 points.
Wednesday: Down 141.71 points.
Thursday: Up 216.84 points.
Friday: Down 460.19 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 346.55 points or 1.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 45.86 points or 0.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 21.77 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.8% down from the high of 26,241.42 on 02/25/2019.
     12.7% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     2.6% down from the high of 7,850.11 on 03/21/2019.
     18.4% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     2.1% down from the high of 2,860.31 on 03/21/2019.
     14.6% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,251  25,377  25,627  25,752  26,002 
Weekly  25,096  25,299  25,704  25,908  26,313 
Monthly  24,617  25,060  25,651  26,093  26,684 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,770  2,785  2,816  2,831  2,861 
Weekly  2,761  2,781  2,820  2,841  2,880 
Monthly  2,656  2,729  2,794  2,867  2,932 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,526  7,584  7,701  7,759  7,876 
Weekly  7,504  7,573  7,712  7,781  7,919 
Monthly  7,091  7,367  7,609  7,884  8,126 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 27.0%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 21.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 25.7%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 40.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 27.2%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 30.7%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
20Double Top, Adam and Adam
10Head-and-shoulders top
9Triangle, symmetrical
7Double Top, Eve and Eve
6Double Top, Adam and Eve
6Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
5Pipe bottom
4Triple top
4Diamond top
4Dead-cat bounce

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Electric Utility (East)2. Precision Instrument
3. Precision Instrument3. Electric Utility (East)
4. Electric Utility (Central)4. Electric Utility (Central)
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Computer Software and Svcs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/22/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 11 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 1.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 4 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AMDPipe bottom      03/04/201903/11/2019Semiconductor
AESRising wedge      12/12/201803/21/2019Electric Utility (East)
AMNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/11/201903/19/2019Human Resources
ASNADead-cat bounce      03/14/201903/15/2019Apparel
BIIBDead-cat bounce      03/20/201903/21/2019Biotechnology
CLNEFlag, high and tight      02/08/201903/21/2019Natural Gas (Distributor)
CRHDiamond top      02/21/201903/20/2019Cement and Aggregates
DVNPipe bottom      03/04/201903/11/2019Natural Gas (Diversified)
EVHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/07/201903/19/2019Healthcare Information
HSCTriangle, descending      02/27/201903/21/2019Diversified Co.
LAWSRectangle bottom      11/06/201803/21/2019Metal Fabricating
OMCDiamond top      01/11/201903/20/2019Advertising
PESPipe bottom      03/11/201903/11/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SLCAPipe bottom      03/04/201903/11/2019Metals and Mining (Div.)
UNMHead-and-shoulders top      02/06/201903/19/2019Insurance (Diversified)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/14/2019 and 03/21/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 395 out of 589
3/21/19 close: $27.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.79 or 14.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 51.08%
Volume: 127,889,800 shares. 3 month avg: 56,512,782 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/04/2019 to 03/11/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/25/2018. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/25/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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AES Corp (AES)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 8 out of 589
3/21/19 close: $18.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.98 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 26.42%
Volume: 4,984,600 shares. 3 month avg: 5,494,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 12/12/2018 to 03/21/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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AMN Healthcare (AMN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 265 out of 589
3/21/19 close: $49.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.37 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.10%
Volume: 444,900 shares. 3 month avg: 549,046 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/11/2019 to 03/19/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/15/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/17/2019 and a 38% chance by 08/16/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 589 out of 589
3/21/19 close: $1.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.53 or 45.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -58.17%
Volume: 5,612,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/14/2019 to 03/15/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Biogen Idec (BIIB)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 556 out of 589
3/21/19 close: $226.88
1 Month avg volatility: $6.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $248.45 or 9.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -24.60%
Volume: 21,571,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,244,726 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/20/2019 to 03/21/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 12 out of 589
3/21/19 close: $3.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.67 or 19.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 92.44%
Volume: 2,424,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,160 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/08/2019 to 03/21/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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CRH plc (CRH)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 279 out of 589
3/21/19 close: $31.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.17 or 2.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.09%
Volume: 522,400 shares. 3 month avg: 546,094 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 02/21/2019 to 03/20/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Devon Energy Corp. (DVN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 502 out of 589
3/21/19 close: $31.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.11 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 40.42%
Volume: 6,863,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,704,349 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/04/2019 to 03/11/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Evolent Health, Inc (EVH)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 578 out of 589
3/21/19 close: $14.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.46 or 18.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.82%
Volume: 2,899,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/07/2019 to 03/19/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 520 out of 589
3/21/19 close: $21.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.87 or 8.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.62%
Volume: 328,700 shares. 3 month avg: 523,465 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/27/2019 to 03/21/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 217 out of 589
3/21/19 close: $31.92
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.47 or 8.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.01%
Volume: 25,300 shares. 3 month avg: 11,408 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 11/06/2018 to 03/21/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 106 out of 589
3/21/19 close: $75.02
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.55 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.43%
Volume: 1,469,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,548,395 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 01/11/2019 to 03/20/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Pioneer Energy Services (PES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 558 out of 589
3/21/19 close: $2.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.74 or 18.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 73.98%
Volume: 352,100 shares. 3 month avg: 605,192 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/11/2019 to 03/11/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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U.S Silica Holdings Inc (SLCA)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 463 out of 589
3/21/19 close: $16.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.84 or 12.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 66.80%
Volume: 1,361,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/04/2019 to 03/11/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Unum Group (UNM)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 405 out of 589
3/21/19 close: $34.62
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.18 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.84%
Volume: 1,867,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,168,134 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 02/06/2019 to 03/19/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Thursday 3/21/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.1% or 5.02 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 694 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 385 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 309 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 160/292 or 54.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 50/99 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At A, an ascending and inverted scallop appears in red. It's not clear that the pattern has completed. To finish, the index needs to close above the top of the pattern. Price could go down instead, of course.

The index also made a pattern at B. This is a broadening pattern, specifically, a right-angled and ascending broadening formation. Whew! That's a mouthful.

Notice how the index at A is below the cyan line (hard to see, but it is). That suggests weakness, that we'll open lower tomorrow. Or close lower. Or maybe both.

The probabilities suggest a higher close, though.

$ $ $

I updated the performance statistics in ascending and inverted scallops.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,153.06    
 Weekly S2  7,356.22  203.16   
 Monthly S1  7,441.01  84.80   
 Weekly S1  7,542.59  101.58   
 Monthly Pivot  7,577.99  35.39   
 Daily S2  7,622.22  44.23   
 Weekly Pivot  7,628.78  6.56   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  7,674.04  45.26   
 Daily S1  7,675.59  1.55   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,714.23  38.63   
 Open  7,721.95  7.72   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,726.64  4.69   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  7,727.42  0.78   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  7,728.97  1.55   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,739.05  10.08   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  7,779.24  40.19   
 Daily R1  7,780.79  1.55   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  7,815.15  34.36   
 Daily R2  7,832.62  17.46   
 Monthly R1  7,865.94  33.33   
 Weekly R2  7,901.34  35.39   
 Monthly R2  8,002.92  101.58   

Wednesday 3/20/19. Indicators: Possible Trend Change

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The green vertical bar on the far right of the chart says everything is peachy.

However, the CPI line, the thin blue one near the bottom of the chart, shows the line plummeting. To me, the indices appear to be pausing (not from his chart, but from others). The Dow utilities appear headed lower, for example. Perhaps the other indices will retrace some, too.

All of that suggests a trend change. Let's see what the next chart shows.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 41% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 44%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 493 stocks in my database are down an average of 19% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 19%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

The red line, the more sensitive of the two, had a good week (as measured from a week ago). Only 41% of the stocks I follow are down from their 1-year highs by 20% or more. Forty-one percent is huge but it beats the prior week's value of 45%. That's almost half and far below the 80% posted the day before Christmas.

This chart shows what happened but it's not that good at predicting what will happen.

The prior chart is better at predicting what will happen, so I'm in favor of weakness here. Of course, the markets might zoom higher tomorrow and change the focus, but that's what I see.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/19/19. Price Mountain in Bitcoin

Slide 1: Bitcoin Weekly Scale

The first slide shows Bitcoin on the weekly scale. A pattern that I call a price mountain appears. I studied those patterns and you can read more at the link. I wanted to know how long it would take before price returned to the top of the mountain.

Answer: at least six years. The time lengthens each time I redo the study because many of the patterns I looked at when the study was completed had not topped the mountain.

Novice traders and investors who contemplate trading a price mountain justify their investment by saying, "It peaked at $x. It can reach it again."

That may be true, but the odds suggest it'll take years before it does.

And because we're talking about a mountain, the slope trends downward, often for years. The next chart shows an example.

1 / 3
Bitcoin on the weekly scale shows a price mountain
Bitcoin (BTC) on the weekly scale.
2 / 3
Intel on the yearly chart
Price mountain in Intel, monthly scale
3 / 3
Bitcoin on the daily chart showing a symmetrical triangle
Daily chart of Bitcoin showing a symmetrical triangle


Slide 2: Intel Monthly Scale

To illustrate my point, this slide (2) shows intel (INTC) on the monthly scale. It formed a price mountain in 2000 and reached a price of 75.69. In 19 years, it only reached a high of 57.60 last year. That's 24% below the mountaintop. If you bought above $60, you'd still be waiting to break even and even longer to turn a profit.

That's 19 years and it still hasn't topped the mountain. Notice the price trend. It bobbles up and down but it bottomed in 2009. So if you bought anywhere near the peak, you'd probably have lost money at least for nine years.

Slide 3: Bitcoin Daily Scale

The last slide of the three, shows Bitcoin on the daily chart. There's a cloud bank pattern, the bottom of which I show with a horizontal green line.

I like trading cloud banks (investing really) because you can double your money. Of course, you have to wait for price to rise. How long does it take to reach the cloud base? Almost half will make it in one year. Seventy-four percent will make it in 2 years.

A symmetrical triangle appears in the last few months. It broke out upward as I show on the chart. That's a buy signal. Target: the base of the cloud for a potential gain of about 50%. I like to see a double, so this misses the mark.

NOTE: I'm NOT making a buy recommendation! I'm just analyzing the chart.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Monday 3/18/19. Market Monday: S&P Rising Slowly

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

For grins, I drew a curving trendline along the peaks. It's possible the index will follow this path but it's also unlikely. Why?

I really don't have an answer except that I'm guessing. So the chances that I have guessed right are slim.

Having said that, the index seems hesitant to move higher. So it might be trying for a 2B pattern.

That's where the security peaks above the prior minor high and then reverses.

The index does appear to be rising at a slower rate, following a curve. And that means a top in the index. The red line really doesn't do the curve justice because it should flatten out more on the top than what I show. However, the pic and the line does give you one idea of how price action might unfold in the coming weeks.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 200.64 points.
Tuesday: Down 96.22 points.
Wednesday: Up 148.23 points.
Thursday: Up 7.05 points.
Friday: Up 138.93 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 398.63 points or 1.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 280.39 points or 3.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 79.41 points or 2.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.5% down from the high of 26,241.42 on 02/25/2019.
     14.2% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.3% down from the high of 7,714.96 on 03/15/2019.
     19.1% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.3% down from the high of 2,830.73 on 03/15/2019.
     15.5% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/15/2019, the CPI had:

11 bearish patterns,
57 bullish patterns,
415 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 83.8%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,531  25,690  25,809  25,968  26,087 
Weekly  24,942  25,395  25,662  26,115  26,382 
Monthly  24,467  25,158  25,700  26,390  26,932 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,801  2,812  2,821  2,832  2,841 
Weekly  2,717  2,770  2,800  2,853  2,883 
Monthly  2,659  2,741  2,786  2,868  2,913 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,622  7,655  7,685  7,718  7,748 
Weekly  7,343  7,516  7,615  7,788  7,888 
Monthly  7,140  7,414  7,565  7,839  7,989 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 48.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 21.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 47.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months up 40.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 48.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months up 30.7%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
21Double Top, Adam and Adam
11Triangle, symmetrical
9Head-and-shoulders top
7Double Top, Eve and Eve
5Double Top, Adam and Eve
5Pipe top
5Dead-cat bounce
4Flag, high and tight
3Pennant
3Triangle, ascending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Precision Instrument
2. Precision Instrument2. Electric Utility (East)
3. Electric Utility (East)3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Electric Utility (Central)4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Electric Utility (Central)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/15/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 2.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AYITriangle, symmetrical      02/13/201903/13/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
ADBEBroadening top      02/13/201903/13/2019Computer Software and Svcs
AESRising wedge      12/12/201803/14/2019Electric Utility (East)
BAPipe top      02/25/201903/04/2019Aerospace/Defense
BMYBroadening wedge, ascending      02/06/201903/08/2019Drug
DOTriangle, symmetrical      01/02/201903/11/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
EQTTriangle, ascending      02/01/201903/14/2019Natural Gas (Diversified)
HPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/28/201903/08/2019Petroleum (Producing)
LAWSRectangle bottom      11/06/201803/14/2019Metal Fabricating
REVDead-cat bounce      03/05/201903/14/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
TLRDDead-cat bounce      03/14/201903/14/2019Retail (Special Lines)
RIGPipe bottom      02/25/201903/04/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
VMCDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/15/201903/11/2019Cement and Aggregates

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/07/2019 and 03/14/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Acuity Brands, Inc (AYI)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 442 out of 589
3/14/19 close: $131.39
1 Month avg volatility: $2.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $125.84 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.30%
Volume: 176,100 shares. 3 month avg: 670,414 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/13/2019 to 03/13/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Adobe Systems (ADBE)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 206 out of 589
3/14/19 close: $267.69
1 Month avg volatility: $5.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $278.03 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.32%
Volume: 5,066,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,137,863 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 02/13/2019 to 03/13/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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AES Corp (AES)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 7 out of 589
3/14/19 close: $18.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.82 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 25.73%
Volume: 4,065,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,494,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 12/12/2018 to 03/14/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Boeing Company, The (BA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 128 out of 589
3/14/19 close: $373.30
1 Month avg volatility: $9.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $399.26 or 7.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.75%
Volume: 13,465,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,332,308 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 465 out of 589
3/14/19 close: $49.89
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $53.67 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.02%
Volume: 31,494,600 shares. 3 month avg: 5,378,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 02/06/2019 to 03/08/2019
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Diamond Offshore (DO)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 589
3/14/19 close: $10.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.82 or 8.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.88%
Volume: 2,560,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,441,012 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/02/2019 to 03/11/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Equitable Resources, Inc (EQT)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 584 out of 589
3/14/19 close: $19.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.14 or 8.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.13%
Volume: 3,756,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,960,946 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/01/2019 to 03/14/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Helmerich and Payne Inc. (HP)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 450 out of 589
3/14/19 close: $55.27
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.17 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.29%
Volume: 873,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,165 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/28/2019 to 03/08/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 319 out of 589
3/14/19 close: $30.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.56 or 10.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.64%
Volume: 13,500 shares. 3 month avg: 11,408 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 11/06/2018 to 03/14/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Revlon Inc (REV)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 364 out of 589
3/14/19 close: $18.88
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.12 or 17.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -25.05%
Volume: 296,900 shares. 3 month avg: 238,602 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/05/2019 to 03/14/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 586 out of 589
3/14/19 close: $8.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.33 or 18.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -35.85%
Volume: 15,594,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,195,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/14/2019 to 03/14/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 497 out of 589
3/14/19 close: $9.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.34 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.26%
Volume: 10,648,000 shares. 3 month avg: 13,612,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/04/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 170 out of 589
3/14/19 close: $111.23
1 Month avg volatility: $2.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $116.61 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.58%
Volume: 1,129,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,153,271 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 02/15/2019 to 03/11/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Thursday 3/14/19. Reflections on Two Emails

Picture of INS stock

I received two emails today that I want to share with you. The first comes from Manny Mendelson. He writes,

Thank-you for this "9-Bagger." Originally selected from a scan based on some small-cap value principles from your outstanding Fundamental Analysis and Position TradingFundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader book. [book, pictured on the right].

Your research and willingness to share it is a real gift. I have been reading your work since the 1990's.

I've also had other successes based on your principles, but this one I had to share.
Once again, thank-you for your wisdom and insight.

- Best, Manny Mendelson

 
Symbol: INS
First buy: 12/24/2015, at $3.19, second lot: at $3.23.
Recent high price: 3/13/2019 $30.41

I show the stock on the weekly scale above. He bought the stock the day before Christmas, and it was a nice gift. It took a while to climb, but this scale is logarithmic so small vertical moves translate into big gains. Manny: be careful you don't give back too much profit before selling. And be sure to save some profit for the tax man.

The second email remarks about my Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second EditionEncyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book. book, pictured on the right.

Sir, I've had your book for 6 or 7 years. I use it all the time. Its kept me out of the trouble that I am prone to find if left to just my opinion or my own emotions.

I find it invaluable. Think I thanked you a number of years back, but definitely worth repeating!

Best book on the market I've ever owned. Thank you very much for this great book!

Peter Connelly

Thanks to Peter and Manny for their kind words. And thanks to all of you who find value in my work.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Wednesday 3/13/19. Hint of Bullish Turn

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator has returned to bull market territory for the first time in two months. Good news, right?

Maybe. Because the indicator can change for up to a week, the signal could disappear. We won't know for another five days. After that, if the signal is still there, then it's a good one and we can party like there's no tomorrow. Again.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 44% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 41%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 494 stocks in my database are down an average of 19% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 19%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

The red line took a huge hit again this week, but the blue line held steady compared to a week ago.

The red line is the more sensitive of the two. It hints of trouble but the blue line is shrugging its shoulders as if it doesn't care.

The last three days have helped pull up both lines and coupled with the prior chart, it suggests a bullish move is coming. That makes sense. I believe the indices have completed their retrace and are now set to move higher. But what do I know? Like you, I'm guessing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/12/19. Intraday Double/Triple Bottom in Dow

The index climbed by 0.8% or 200.64 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 574 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 318 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 256 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 182/302 or 60.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 36/71 or 50.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

Yesterday, the index made a hint of a turn forming what appears at first glance to be a triple bottom at ABC.

It might better be described as a double bottom with A and C being the two bottoms. Or you can think of the turn as a double bottom at AB, which confirms and then busts at C. It busts a second time on the way higher today (Monday).

It looks like the indices have completed their retrace and now it'll be an upward move. At least that's what I hope will happen.

$ $ $

Over the coming days, I hope to roll out the new look for the website, beginning with this blog page. You'll know it when it happens, but it's taken me weeks to get past technical issues setup by my ignorance. The pages will look cleaner and will function better with non-desktop devices (tables, phones). It won't be perfect but it'll handle the posts a lot better than it's handled now.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,233.40    
 Weekly S2  24,782.92  549.52   
 Monthly S1  24,942.14  159.22   
 Daily S2  25,053.21  111.07   
 Open  25,208.00  154.79   
 Low  25,208.00  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Open.
 Weekly S1  25,216.90  8.90   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  25,352.04  135.14   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  25,381.29  29.24   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  25,434.81  53.53   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  25,488.34  53.53   
 Daily Pivot  25,506.84  18.49   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  25,591.78  84.94   
 Close  25,650.88  59.10   
 High  25,661.63  10.75   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot  25,686.44  24.81   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  25,805.67  119.23   
 Daily R2  25,960.47  154.79   
 Weekly R1  26,120.42  159.95   
 Monthly R1  26,300.52  180.10   
 Weekly R2  26,589.96  289.44   
 Monthly R2  26,950.16  360.20   

Monday 3/11/19. More Down Coming in Nasdaq

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I drew a green trendline connecting peaks in a trend that slopes downward. This line, as I recall, didn't perform well as overhead resistance when the index blew through it just to the left of A.

Will it work as support this time?

I worked at A as support but it's unknown if it'll halt the decline when the index drops to B. The location of B isn't accurate for both time and price. I just penciled it in. We can't predict when the index will touch the green line, but I think it'll be something this week or maybe early next week.

Indeed, the index may well avoid it and rise from here. But it looks clear to me that the index is going down in the short term. I expect it to come very close to the line or even bounce off it as it begins a new move higher.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 206.67 points.
Tuesday: Down 13.02 points.
Wednesday: Down 133.17 points.
Thursday: Down 200.23 points.
Friday: Down 22.99 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 576.08 points or 2.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 187.21 points or 2.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 60.62 points or 2.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.0% down from the high of 26,241.42 on 02/25/2019.
     12.4% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     3.1% down from the high of 7,643.66 on 03/04/2019.
     14.7% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     2.6% down from the high of 2,816.88 on 03/04/2019.
     12.2% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/08/2019, the CPI had:

28 bearish patterns,
8 bullish patterns,
213 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 22.2%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,176  25,313  25,390  25,527  25,603 
Weekly  24,716  25,083  25,620  25,987  26,523 
Monthly  24,167  24,808  25,525  26,167  26,883 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,715  2,729  2,736  2,751  2,758 
Weekly  2,666  2,705  2,761  2,799  2,855 
Monthly  2,612  2,678  2,747  2,813  2,882 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,306  7,357  7,384  7,435  7,463 
Weekly  7,151  7,279  7,462  7,590  7,772 
Monthly  7,007  7,208  7,426  7,626  7,844 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 13.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 21.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 25.8%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 22.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 27.3%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 27.1%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
21Double Top, Adam and Adam
13Triangle, symmetrical
10Head-and-shoulders top
8Double Top, Adam and Eve
8Diamond top
8Pipe bottom
5Dead-cat bounce
5Flag, high and tight
4Double Top, Eve and Eve
3Triangle, ascending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Precision Instrument1. Precision Instrument
2. Electric Utility (East)2. Electric Utility (East)
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.3. Shoe
4. Computer Software and Svcs4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Electric Utility (Central)5. Electric Utility (Central)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/8/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 30 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 596 stocks searched, or 5.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 8 bearish ones with any remaining (19) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ALLDouble Top, Eve and Adam      02/25/201903/04/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
DOXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/25/201903/04/2019IT Services
ADPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/25/201903/01/2019IT Services
BMIHead-and-shoulders top      02/11/201903/04/2019Precision Instrument
BIIBDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/19/201903/04/2019Biotechnology
CRLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/25/201903/01/2019Biotechnology
COPHead-and-shoulders top      02/04/201903/04/2019Petroleum (Integrated)
GLWDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/25/201903/04/2019Telecom. Equipment
DTETriangle, symmetrical      02/25/201903/07/2019Electric Utility (Central)
BOOMFlag      02/26/201903/07/2019Metal Fabricating
ERADouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/20/201903/04/2019Air Transport
FDXHead-and-shoulders top      02/06/201903/04/2019Air Transport
HRSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/25/201903/04/2019Telecom. Equipment
HQYDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/25/201903/04/2019Healthcare Information
ISRGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/25/201903/01/2019Medical Supplies
IVCFlag      02/25/201903/07/2019Medical Supplies
JKHYDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/14/201903/04/2019IT Services
KLICDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/25/201903/06/2019Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LAWSRectangle bottom      11/06/201803/07/2019Metal Fabricating
LNCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/25/201903/01/2019Insurance (Life)
LDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/25/201903/04/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
MANHDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/25/201903/01/2019IT Services
MDSODouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/25/201903/01/2019Healthcare Information
MOSPipe top      02/19/201902/25/2019Chemical (Diversified)
OMCLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/22/201903/04/2019Healthcare Information
PATKHead-and-shoulders top      02/19/201903/01/2019Retail Building Supply
PDCODouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/19/201903/01/2019Medical Supplies
RLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/25/201903/01/2019Apparel
TPXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/25/201903/05/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
WMBTriangle, ascending      02/01/201903/07/2019Natural Gas (Distributor)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/28/2019 and 03/07/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Allstate Corp (ALL)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 323 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $93.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $96.14 or 3.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.84%
Volume: 1,949,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,838,948 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Amdocs Limited (DOX)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 440 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $54.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $56.66 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.46%
Volume: 1,080,500 shares. 3 month avg: 895,243 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 145 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $150.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $155.35 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.72%
Volume: 2,906,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,140,888 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Badger Meter Inc. (BMI)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 154 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $57.04
1 Month avg volatility: $1.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.03 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.91%
Volume: 111,500 shares. 3 month avg: 149,246 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 02/11/2019 to 03/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Biogen Idec (BIIB)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 343 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $315.29
1 Month avg volatility: $6.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $331.43 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.78%
Volume: 1,077,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,244,726 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/19/2019 to 03/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Charles River Labs Intl (CRL)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 60 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $138.48
1 Month avg volatility: $2.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $144.76 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 22.35%
Volume: 319,200 shares. 3 month avg: 379,248 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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ConocoPhillips (COP)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 306 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $67.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $70.80 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.98%
Volume: 6,964,300 shares. 3 month avg: 6,156,062 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 02/04/2019 to 03/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Corning Inc. (GLW)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 164 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $33.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.46 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.45%
Volume: 3,232,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,449,098 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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DTE Energy Company (DTE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 85 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $122.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $119.15 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.06%
Volume: 1,380,900 shares. 3 month avg: 979,609 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/07/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 32 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $45.47
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.06 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 29.47%
Volume: 41,500 shares. 3 month avg: 60,208 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/26/2019 to 03/07/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Era Group Inc (ERA)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 385 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $10.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.30 or 9.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.85%
Volume: 43,700 shares. 3 month avg: 78,248 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 02/20/2019 to 03/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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FedEx (FDX)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 536 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $172.86
1 Month avg volatility: $3.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $183.10 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.15%
Volume: 3,742,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,372,055 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 02/06/2019 to 03/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Harris Corp (HRS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 195 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $161.23
1 Month avg volatility: $2.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $166.48 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.74%
Volume: 850,100 shares. 3 month avg: 629,323 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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HealthEquity, Inc (HQY)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 495 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $75.06
1 Month avg volatility: $2.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $81.67 or 8.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 25.83%
Volume: 603,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 189 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $533.16
1 Month avg volatility: $10.91. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $558.20 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.33%
Volume: 710,400 shares. 3 month avg: 734,668 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 567 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $9.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.79 or 17.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 119.30%
Volume: 479,000 shares. 3 month avg: 553,063 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/07/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/06/2018. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/07/2019.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Jack Henry and Associates (JKHY)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 444 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $131.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $135.51 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.54%
Volume: 431,700 shares. 3 month avg: 329,005 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 02/14/2019 to 03/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 371 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $22.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.34 or 6.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.28%
Volume: 283,700 shares. 3 month avg: 518,337 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/06/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 448 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $30.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.59 or 7.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.08%
Volume: 15,800 shares. 3 month avg: 11,408 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 11/06/2018 to 03/07/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Lincoln National Corp (LNC)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 346 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $60.39
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.95 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.70%
Volume: 2,693,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,171,931 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Loews Corp (L)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 304 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $46.82
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.74 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.86%
Volume: 1,230,200 shares. 3 month avg: 964,671 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Manhattan Associates (MANH)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 284 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $53.60
1 Month avg volatility: $1.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $56.81 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 26.50%
Volume: 264,400 shares. 3 month avg: 726,191 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

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Medidata Solutions (MDSO)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 392 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $72.13
1 Month avg volatility: $2.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.19 or 7.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.99%
Volume: 248,200 shares. 3 month avg: 565,226 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Mosaic Co (MOS)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 330 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $27.92
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.81 or 10.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.42%
Volume: 7,962,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,715,435 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/19/2019 to 02/25/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Omnicell, Inc (OMCL)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 41 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $82.30
1 Month avg volatility: $2.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $88.39 or 7.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 34.39%
Volume: 438,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/22/2019 to 03/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Patrick Industries Inc (PATK)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 542 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $44.99
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.09 or 9.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 51.94%
Volume: 264,300 shares. 3 month avg: 94,083 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 02/19/2019 to 03/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Patterson Companies Inc. (PDCO)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 332 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $21.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.37 or 7.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.33%
Volume: 785,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,885,975 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/19/2019 to 03/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 290 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $123.35
1 Month avg volatility: $2.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $129.69 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.22%
Volume: 755,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,365,482 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Tempur-pedic Intl (TPX)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 162 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $57.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.94 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 37.90%
Volume: 470,400 shares. 3 month avg: 985,960 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 03/05/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Williams Companies Inc. (WMB)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 333 out of 590
3/7/19 close: $26.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.98 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.18%
Volume: 8,585,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,990,974 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/01/2019 to 03/07/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Thursday 3/7/19. Intraday Nasdaq: Double Tops Shows Terrific Gains

The index dropped by -0.9% or -70.44 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 203 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 97 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 106 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 160/292 or 54.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 49/98 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale, but only 5 days to highlight the chart pattern.

An Adam & Adam double top appears at AB. That was late Wednesday. It looks to have confirmed just before or just after the close on Tuesday, meaning day traders could be primed to take a plunge in the pattern.

Before the market opened this morning (Wednesday), the futures may have shown that the opening would be negative but not a significant drop (I'm guessing because I didn't check).

A negative reading would have suggested a downward move. However, volatility being what it is, the readings may be suspect and short-lived. A triple digit negative futures before the opening bell might show the indices reversing to end three digits higher at the close.

Anyway, the double top was there, and it confirmed as a valid pattern. Shorting the index would have seen it drop all the way down to C, where it found support at the blue line.

What a nice tumble for such a small pattern. Unusual, too.

Because the index is resting on support, I think the index will close higher on Thursday. The above probabilities suggest a lower close.

The chart pattern indicator remains bearish, too, which supports a lower move.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,781.91    
 Monthly S1  7,143.91  362.01   
 Monthly Pivot  7,373.48  229.56   
 Weekly S2  7,413.80  40.32   
 Daily S2  7,449.12  35.32   
 Weekly S1  7,459.86  10.74   
 Daily S1  7,477.52  17.66   
 Low  7,499.87  22.35   
 Close  7,505.92  6.05   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  7,528.27  22.35   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,530.11  1.84   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  7,531.45  1.34   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,539.44  7.99   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,548.78  9.34   
 Daily R1  7,556.67  7.89   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  7,575.38  18.71   
 Weekly R1  7,577.51  2.13   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Open.
 High  7,579.02  1.51   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  7,607.42  28.40   
 Weekly R2  7,649.10  41.68   
 Monthly R1  7,735.48  86.38   
 Monthly R2  7,965.05  229.56   

Wednesday 3/6/19. Indicators: Trouble Ahead

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

See that vertical red line on the far right of the chart? That's bad news.

Or is it?

Readers of this blog will understand that indicator signals can change for up to a week, so that signal could flop all the way to green if the markets were to rise several hundred points.

So maybe it's not as bearish as we might expect. But it could also signal the extended retrace I've been expecting.

Let's look at the next chart.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 41% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 40%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 494 stocks in my database are down an average of 19% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines are lower this week from a week ago. And that means more stocks are bearish this week than last.

The above numbers confirm that view. Combined with the prior chart, it suggests that the retrace has begun. However, I don't know how long it will last. It might be over tomorrow, in fact.

I think that there's a case to be made that the indices will continue to round over and head lower. But I could be wrong. As I've mentioned in this space, I've been wrong before while waiting for a bearish turn.

If trade talks with China get settled, the markets will soar. If talks fail, the markets will crash. We'll have to wait and see what happens.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/5/19. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.8% or -206.67 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 510 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 268 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 242 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 182/301 or 60.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 36/71 or 50.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I drew a horizontal red line through price, just to show where price bounces off the line a lot. Look at the line and you'll see peaks and valleys touching the line or coming close to it.

But the support and resistance shown by the line didn't stop the index from plunging through it today (Monday).

The opening looked promising as the index gapped open higher (A). It started retracing, which is normal, but the retrace didn't stop. The index kept dropping and dropping. Eventually, in mid session, it found some footing and shot upward.

What was left on the chart was a V-bottom only this bottom has an extension.

That extension is the small knot of congestion formed after the V. It doesn't look complete, as if it needs to retrace more before resuming the upward move. If it does that (retrace a bit more), then it would qualify as an extended V-bottom pattern.

We might not see the extension grow, but an upward move agrees with the above probabilities.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  23,544.19    
 Monthly S1  24,681.92  1,137.73   
 Daily S2  25,317.96  636.04   
 Monthly Pivot  25,461.67  143.71   
 Daily S1  25,568.81  107.14   
 Low  25,611.55  42.74   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S2  25,615.26  3.71   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Low.
 Weekly S1  25,717.45  102.20   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  25,819.52  102.07   
 Close  25,819.65  0.13   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  25,862.39  42.74   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  25,883.77  21.37   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  25,948.01  64.24   
 Weekly Pivot  25,979.44  31.43   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  26,081.63  102.20   
 Daily R1  26,113.24  31.60   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Open  26,122.19  8.95   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  26,155.98  33.79   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R2  26,343.62  187.64   
 Daily R2  26,406.82  63.21   
 Monthly R1  26,599.40  192.58   
 Monthly R2  27,379.15  779.75   

Monday 3/4/19. Monday 3/4/19. Trouble Ahead for Dow

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show a pic of the Dow industrials on the weekly scale, not the usual daily. Why? Because I wanted to show the long-term picture.

A double top appears at AB, confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index closed below the red line. Notice that the index only dropped to C.

Small declines, if you can call this one a small decline, are common for double tops.

The index recovered and made its way higher to D. However, look how close it is to the brown line (drawn from the highest peak, B) and even the green line (drawn from A).

What's the big deal?

The green line makes the three-peak pattern appear as a head-and-shoulders top (although a triple top would be a better assessment).

It suggests the index will stall soon, forming a third peak.

It's possible, of course, the index will rise above the brown line by an amount similar to the drop below the red line to C, before reversing. So we'll have to wait and see what really happens.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 60.14 points.
Tuesday: Down 33.97 points.
Wednesday: Down 72.82 points.
Thursday: Down 69.16 points.
Friday: Up 110.32 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 5.49 points or 0.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 67.81 points or 0.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 11.02 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.8% down from the high of 26,241.42 on 02/25/2019.
     15.0% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.1% down from the high of 7,603.04 on 03/01/2019.
     17.6% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.3% down from the high of 2,813.49 on 02/25/2019.
     14.7% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/01/2019, the CPI had:

11 bearish patterns,
35 bullish patterns,
279 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 76.1%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,799  25,912  26,028  26,142  26,258 
Weekly  25,684  25,855  26,048  26,219  26,413 
Monthly  23,613  24,820  25,531  26,737  27,448 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,779  2,791  2,800  2,812  2,820 
Weekly  2,759  2,781  2,797  2,820  2,836 
Monthly  2,558  2,681  2,747  2,870  2,937 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,517  7,556  7,580  7,619  7,642 
Weekly  7,444  7,519  7,561  7,637  7,679 
Monthly  6,812  7,204  7,403  7,795  7,995 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 26.7%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 33.0%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 5 weeks up 12.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 40.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 10 weeks up 0.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 30.7%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
12Triangle, symmetrical
10Diamond top
8Pipe bottom
6Flag, high and tight
6Dead-cat bounce
4Double Top, Adam and Adam
4Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
3Triangle, ascending
3Broadening top
3Double Top, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Precision Instrument1. Precision Instrument
2. Electric Utility (East)2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Shoe3. Computer Software and Svcs
4. Computer Software and Svcs4. Electric Utility (East)
5. Electric Utility (Central)5. Electric Utility (Central)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/1/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 596 stocks searched, or 3.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 8 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ANIKDead-cat bounce      02/21/201902/22/2019Biotechnology
AMATHead-and-shoulders complex top      01/30/201902/25/2019Semiconductor Cap Equip.
AXSPennant      02/21/201902/28/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CALTriangle, symmetrical      11/29/201802/26/2019Shoe
ERAPennant      02/21/201902/28/2019Air Transport
FISTriangle, symmetrical      01/29/201902/27/2019Computer Software and Svcs
FISVTriangle, symmetrical      02/11/201902/28/2019IT Services
ITTriangle, ascending      02/06/201902/28/2019Information Services
GFFFlag, high and tight      12/26/201802/22/2019Building Materials
HUBGHorn top      02/04/201902/19/2019Trucking/Transp. Leasing
JBHTPipe top      02/11/201902/19/2019Trucking/Transp. Leasing
MCHXDiamond top      02/05/201902/28/2019Advertising
MDTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/19/201902/25/2019Medical Supplies
MLHRRising wedge      12/20/201802/25/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
OXYDiamond top      01/09/201902/28/2019Petroleum (Producing)
OMCDiamond top      01/11/201902/28/2019Advertising
PETSTriangle, symmetrical      01/18/201902/26/2019Medical Services
RGARoof, inverted      01/30/201902/28/2019Insurance (Life)
RESTriangle, descending      01/23/201902/28/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
STMPDead-cat bounce      02/22/201902/22/2019Internet
SYMCTriangle, symmetrical      02/01/201902/28/2019Computer Software and Svcs
TOLTriple top      02/01/201902/25/2019Homebuilding

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/21/2019 and 02/28/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Anika Therapeutics Inc (ANIK)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 496 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $32.63
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.75 or 9.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.92%
Volume: 182,800 shares. 3 month avg: 71,871 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/21/2019 to 02/22/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Applied Materials (AMAT)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 391 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $38.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $40.36 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.10%
Volume: 9,705,700 shares. 3 month avg: 11,583,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex top reversal pattern from 01/30/2019 to 02/25/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 67% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 53% of the time.

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Axis Capital Holdings Ltd (AXS)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 220 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $57.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.27 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.52%
Volume: 386,500 shares. 3 month avg: 808,385 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 02/21/2019 to 02/28/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Caleres (CAL)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 491 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $31.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.94 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.75%
Volume: 477,600 shares. 3 month avg: 329,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/29/2018 to 02/26/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Era Group Inc (ERA)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 300 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $11.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.33 or 10.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.81%
Volume: 58,100 shares. 3 month avg: 78,248 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 02/21/2019 to 02/28/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Fidelity National Information Svcs (FIS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 198 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $108.15
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $103.73 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.46%
Volume: 3,075,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,473,917 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/29/2019 to 02/27/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Fiserv, Inc (FISV)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 110 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $84.69
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.98 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.24%
Volume: 2,578,500 shares. 3 month avg: 915,811 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/11/2019 to 02/28/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Gartner Inc (IT)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 270 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $142.30
1 Month avg volatility: $2.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $136.24 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.31%
Volume: 430,100 shares. 3 month avg: 564,655 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/06/2019 to 02/28/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 251 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $17.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.36 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 70.72%
Volume: 290,000 shares. 3 month avg: 83,558 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 12/26/2018 to 02/22/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Hub Group Inc. (HUBG)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 480 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $42.98
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.50 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.94%
Volume: 154,000 shares. 3 month avg: 343,494 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 02/04/2019 to 02/19/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 7%.
Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Hunt, J.B. (JBHT)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 394 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $107.67
1 Month avg volatility: $1.99. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $111.81 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.72%
Volume: 805,000 shares. 3 month avg: 898,451 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/11/2019 to 02/19/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Marchex, Inc (MCHX)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 4 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $4.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.78 or 10.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 63.40%
Volume: 73,100 shares. 3 month avg: 97,160 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 02/05/2019 to 02/28/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Medtronic Inc (MDT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 307 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $90.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $93.73 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.51%
Volume: 12,189,600 shares. 3 month avg: 5,761,640 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/19/2019 to 02/25/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Miller, Herman (MLHR)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 290 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $36.68
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.02 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.26%
Volume: 206,200 shares. 3 month avg: 361,806 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 12/20/2018 to 02/25/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 467 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $66.15
1 Month avg volatility: $1.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.31 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.77%
Volume: 3,856,300 shares. 3 month avg: 4,088,786 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 01/09/2019 to 02/28/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 85 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $75.70
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $78.93 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.36%
Volume: 1,836,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,548,395 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 01/11/2019 to 02/28/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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PetMed Express Inc. (PETS)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 567 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $23.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.34 or 11.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.90%
Volume: 577,600 shares. 3 month avg: 739,945 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/18/2019 to 02/26/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Reinsurance Group of America (RGA)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 185 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $144.49
1 Month avg volatility: $2.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $149.90 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.04%
Volume: 392,300 shares. 3 month avg: 326,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 01/30/2019 to 02/28/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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RPC Inc (RES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 523 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $10.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.81 or 9.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.92%
Volume: 3,129,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,275,503 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 01/23/2019 to 02/28/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Stamps.com (STMP)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 587 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $93.99
1 Month avg volatility: $5.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $106.64 or 13.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -39.61%
Volume: 1,177,800 shares. 3 month avg: 426,580 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/22/2019 to 02/22/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Symantec Corp (SYMC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 81 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $22.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.43 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.03%
Volume: 4,544,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,752,529 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/01/2019 to 02/28/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Toll Brothers (TOL)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 259 out of 590
2/28/19 close: $35.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.16 or 7.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.11%
Volume: 2,948,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,237,614 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 02/01/2019 to 02/25/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

 
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