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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
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Patterns
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 11/15/2018
25,289 208.77 0.8%
10,615 158.69 1.5%
715 -9.55 -1.3%
7,259 122.64 1.7%
2,730 28.62 1.1%
YTD
2.3%
0.0%
-1.2%
5.2%
2.1%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 11/14/2018
26,800 or 24,500 by 12/01/2018
11,000 or 10,100 by 12/01/2018
710 or 750 by 12/01/2018
6,900 or 7,700 by 12/01/2018
2,650 or 2,800 by 12/01/2018

Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.

March 2018 Headlines


Archives


Thursday 3/29/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.9% or -59.58 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 196 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 92 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 104 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 53.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 143/256 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/88 or 52.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index didn't move much today. However, it did form a down-sloping channel. I show that on the chart, outlined in red.

It hasn't broken out from the channel yet and if you look closely, you'll see the index has been bumping up against the top of the channel frequently.

That could suggest an upward breakout when it comes.

$ $ $

I've been working on a new version of Patternz. It supports a lot of new patterns, but it also has some additional capability (targeting. You'll see...). However, I want to take more time to tweak the pattern recognition routines for the more common patterns. Sometimes, what Patternz shows is really awful. Maybe I can clean that up some.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,548.46    
 Weekly S2  6,692.48  144.03   
 Monthly S1  6,748.84  56.36   
 Weekly S1  6,820.86  72.01   
 Daily S2  6,827.11  6.25   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  6,888.17  61.06   
 Low  6,901.07  12.90   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Close  6,949.23  48.16   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  6,952.65  3.42   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  6,962.13  9.48   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  6,968.58  6.45   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  6,978.30  9.72   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  6,984.51  6.21   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  7,023.19  38.68   
 High  7,036.09  12.90   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  7,097.15  61.06   
 Weekly Pivot  7,121.04  23.89   
 Monthly Pivot  7,193.06  72.01   
 Weekly R1  7,249.42  56.36   
 Monthly R1  7,393.44  144.03   
 Weekly R2  7,549.60  156.16   
 Monthly R2  7,837.66  288.05   

Wednesday 3/28/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator is still bearish, as the vertical red line on the far right of the chart testifies.

Notice that the thin blue indicator line bubbled up but is now headed back down. That suggests more weakness ahead...or not. The wild swings the market has been taking daily is throwing everything off.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 27% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 23%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 31% on 02/08/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 515 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

Another week and another crash on the charts. The numbers this week are dramatically lower than last week.

One thing I noticed about the chart is that it's not showing today's (Tuesday's) price quote. Today was a down day and yet the candle is white. So there's a bug I have to look into.

It might explain my feeling that the red and blue lines have not been up to date either. I'll run it down and have it fixed by next week.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/27/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 2.8% or 669.4 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 22 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 12 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 10 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 157/264 or 59.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/68 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The Dow made a nice head-and-shoulders bottom today (Monday).

I show that on the chart as LS (left shoulder), head, and RS (right shoulder).

The measure for this pattern is a vertical one from the head up to the neckline directly above. Eyeballing it, that's about 450 points and the Dow has only risen about 200 of that since the breakout at A.

So there's more upside to come.

The CPI (chart pattern indicator) still shows a bearish signal, despite today's big move higher. I think the indicator is in neutral territory. It'll take another up day to swing it back into bullish territory.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  22,212.71    
 Weekly S2  22,761.18  548.47   
 Monthly S1  23,207.66  446.48   
 Weekly S1  23,481.89  274.23   
 Daily S2  23,567.63  85.74   
 Low  23,741.22  173.59   
 Open  23,825.74  84.52   
 Daily S1  23,885.11  59.37   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  23,928.81  43.70   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  23,986.76  57.95   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,044.71  57.95   
 Daily Pivot  24,058.71  14.00   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  24,202.60  143.89   
 Weekly Pivot  24,229.77  27.17   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 High  24,232.30  2.53   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  24,376.19  143.89   
 Monthly Pivot  24,504.00  127.81   
 Daily R2  24,549.79  45.78   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  24,950.48  400.69   
 Monthly R1  25,498.95  548.47   
 Weekly R2  25,698.36  199.41   
 Monthly R2  26,795.29  1,096.93   

Monday 3/26/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

The chart shows the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The picture shows a double top which confirmed as a valid pattern. Let me explain.

The double top appears at AB. It confirms at C when the index closes below the valley between peaks AB. That's by definition.

What does it mean?

Lower prices ahead. And yet double tops, historically, don't mean price is going down all that far. So I would caution about making a claim of a coming huge decline.

That could happen, but odds favor a small drop or even a snap-back recovery.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 335.6 points.
Tuesday: Up 116.36 points.
Wednesday: Down 44.96 points.
Thursday: Down 724.42 points.
Friday: Down 424.69 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 1413.31 points or 5.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 489.32 points or 6.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 163.75 points or 6.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     11.6% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     0.7% up from the low of 23,360.29 on 02/09/2018.
Nasdaq
     8.4% down from the high of 7,637.27 on 03/13/2018.
     5.5% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     9.9% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     2.2% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/23/2018, the CPI had:

47 bearish patterns,
3 bullish patterns,
75 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 6.0%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 3 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  23,118  23,325  23,717  23,925  24,316 
Weekly  22,538  23,036  24,007  24,504  25,475 
Monthly  21,990  22,761  24,281  25,053  26,572 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,539  2,564  2,611  2,635  2,682 
Weekly  2,483  2,536  2,639  2,691  2,794 
Monthly  2,443  2,515  2,659  2,731  2,875 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  6,858  6,925  7,060  7,127  7,262 
Weekly  6,707  6,850  7,136  7,278  7,564 
Monthly  6,563  6,778  7,208  7,422  7,852 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 15.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months down 11.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 14.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months down 11.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 16.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months down 15.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
35Double Top, Adam and Adam
22Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
15Triangle, symmetrical
10Pipe bottom
7Triple top
6Triple bottom
5Head-and-shoulders top
4Dead-cat bounce
4Pipe top
4Broadening bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Human Resources
2. Human Resources2. Shoe
3. Internet3. Semiconductor
4. Computer Software and Svcs4. Internet
5. Apparel5. Securities Brokerage

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/23/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 619 stocks searched, or 3.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ASNARectangle bottom      06/06/201703/22/2018Apparel
BZHTriangle, symmetrical      02/09/201803/22/2018Homebuilding
BBBYTriangle, symmetrical      01/24/201803/22/2018Retail (Special Lines)
CXPipe top      03/05/201803/12/2018Cement and Aggregates
CLNEHorn bottom      02/26/201803/12/2018Natural Gas (Distributor)
CAGPipe top      03/05/201803/12/2018Food Processing
ETHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/06/201803/16/2018Furn/Home Furnishings
GDHead-and-shoulders top      02/27/201803/20/2018Aerospace/Defense
HRSTriangle, ascending      02/01/201803/21/2018Telecom. Equipment
JBHTTriangle, symmetrical      01/24/201803/22/2018Trucking/Transp. Leasing
TILETriangle, symmetrical      02/20/201803/22/2018Furn/Home Furnishings
NVTAFlag      03/14/201803/22/2018Medical Services
LDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/12/201803/21/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
NCSFlag      03/13/201803/20/2018Building Materials
SEICDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/12/201803/21/2018IT Services
PAYPipe top      03/05/201803/12/2018Telecom. Equipment
EWKBroadening bottom      02/16/201803/22/2018Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWMTriangle, ascending      02/16/201803/22/2018Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWWTriangle, symmetrical      02/09/201803/22/2018Investment Co. (Foreign)
PXJTriangle, symmetrical      02/09/201803/22/2018Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
MXITriangle, symmetrical      01/29/201803/16/2018Investment Co. (Foreign)
XLUTriangle, symmetrical      02/01/201803/22/2018Electric Utility (Central)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/15/2018 and 03/22/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 447 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $1.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.32 or 17.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.17%
Volume: 857,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/06/2017 to 03/22/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 12/05/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/05/2018.
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 477 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $16.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.19 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.30%
Volume: 365,600 shares. 3 month avg: 503,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/09/2018 to 03/22/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 444 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $21.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.93 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.49%
Volume: 1,765,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,821,077 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/24/2018 to 03/22/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cemex SA de CV (CX)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 587 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $6.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.24 or 8.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -10.89%
Volume: 13,723,800 shares. 3 month avg: 9,928,860 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 03/05/2018 to 03/12/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 594 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $1.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.41 or 14.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.72%
Volume: 1,357,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,160 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 02/26/2018 to 03/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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ConAgra Brands Inc (CAG)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 303 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $35.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.01 or 7.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.89%
Volume: 6,518,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,423,360 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 03/05/2018 to 03/12/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (ETH)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 585 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $22.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.57 or 8.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.63%
Volume: 193,300 shares. 3 month avg: 320,755 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/06/2018 to 03/16/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 280 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $218.37
1 Month avg volatility: $4.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $232.07 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.33%
Volume: 1,163,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,076,035 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 02/27/2018 to 03/20/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Harris Corp (HRS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 143 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $154.57
1 Month avg volatility: $2.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $148.41 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.12%
Volume: 748,400 shares. 3 month avg: 629,323 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/01/2018 to 03/21/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Hunt, J.B. (JBHT)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 174 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $118.82
1 Month avg volatility: $2.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $113.41 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.34%
Volume: 876,700 shares. 3 month avg: 898,451 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/24/2018 to 03/22/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Interface, Inc. (TILE)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 122 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $24.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.48 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.99%
Volume: 469,600 shares. 3 month avg: 457,515 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/20/2018 to 03/22/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Invitae Corp (NVTA)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 563 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $7.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.58 or 10.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -22.42%
Volume: 291,000 shares. 3 month avg: 321,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 03/14/2018 to 03/22/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Loews Corp (L)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 305 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $50.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $53.08 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.42%
Volume: 1,576,100 shares. 3 month avg: 964,671 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/12/2018 to 03/21/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 115 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $17.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.10 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.84%
Volume: 567,800 shares. 3 month avg: 632,900 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 03/13/2018 to 03/20/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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SEI Investments Co (SEIC)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 77 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $74.99
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $80.46 or 7.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.36%
Volume: 1,006,800 shares. 3 month avg: 522,352 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/12/2018 to 03/21/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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VeriFone Systems, Inc (PAY)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 570 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $16.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.14 or 8.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.14%
Volume: 1,260,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,468,540 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 03/05/2018 to 03/12/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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MSCI Belgium Investable Mkt Idx (EWK)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 349 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $21.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.88 or 2.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.00%
Volume: 18,600 shares. 3 month avg: 34,920 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 02/16/2018 to 03/22/2018
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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MSCI Malaysia Index (EWM)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 248 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $35.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.47 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.13%
Volume: 1,012,400 shares. 3 month avg: 489,520 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/16/2018 to 03/22/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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MSCI Mexico Investable Mkt idx (EWW)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 499 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $50.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.01 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.39%
Volume: 5,149,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,019,575 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/09/2018 to 03/22/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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PowerShares Dynamic Oil Services (PXJ)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 465 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $8.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.41 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.18%
Volume: 6,300 shares. 3 month avg: 36,780 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/09/2018 to 03/22/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SandP Global Materials Sector Index fund (MXI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 320 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $68.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.64 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.10%
Volume: 11,800 shares. 3 month avg: 23,111 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/29/2018 to 03/16/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SPDR Utilities Select Sector (XLU)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 481 out of 611
3/22/18 close: $49.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.90 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.10%
Volume: 25,331,300 shares. 3 month avg: 12,362,272 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/01/2018 to 03/22/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 3/22/18. Broker and Software Survey

A question I'm asked often is what software do I use to trade? I wrote my own, but here's how readers of the bonus issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine rated software packages. This is from a survey of their readership conducted in late 2017.

In the category of "Standalone analytical software, $500 or less"...

(Results used with permission)

 

Here are reader's favorites for stock brokerages.

(Results used with permission)

The bonus issue which is included with your subscription, has 21 categories, covering data, brokerages, trading platforms/software, systems, trading schools, favorite websites and favorite article (I tied for 4th this year!). Visit traders.com for more information.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Wednesday 3/21/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator has turned bearish, as the vertical red line on the far right on the chart shows.

Since it's only been in effect for two days, there's plenty of time for the signal to disappear (which it can do for up to 7 days). Thus, this retrace might just be a temporary hiccup and not the start of a significant bearish reversal.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 21%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 31% on 02/08/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 515 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

The above numbers show performance is getting worse. Both lines deteriorated from the prior week.

However, if you look at the longer-term trend, from the low in February, the uptrend is still intact.

Both charts, though, are signaling a bearish move. I don't know if that means it's more likely to be a significant downturn or not. I don't think it works that way. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/20/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -1.3% or -335.6 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 208 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 107 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 101 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 156/263 or 59.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/68 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

Today, the index made a double bottom at AB. It appears to have confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index closed above the horizontal red line (it's hard to see, but I think it did).

The steep drop from C suggests that the index will recover to the launch price, C. Why?

Look at what happened with a double top at DE. It confirmed when the index closed below the horizontal blue line. The index dropped to F, matching the launch price of G.

Invert the picture and you'll see what I see. It may take a few days to climb that far, though.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  23,293.75    
 Monthly S1  23,952.33  658.58   
 Weekly S2  24,129.31  176.98   
 Daily S2  24,212.03  82.72   
 Weekly S1  24,370.11  158.08   
 Daily S1  24,411.47  41.36   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  24,453.14  41.67   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Close  24,610.91  157.77   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  24,621.43  10.52   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  24,652.58  31.15   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,673.41  20.83   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,725.40  51.99   
 Daily R1  24,852.02  126.62   
 Monthly Pivot  24,876.34  24.32   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 High  24,893.69  17.35   Yes! The High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Open  24,893.69  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the High.
 Weekly Pivot  24,909.63  15.94   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  25,093.13  183.50   
 Weekly R1  25,150.43  57.30   
 Monthly R1  25,534.92  384.49   
 Weekly R2  25,689.95  155.03   
 Monthly R2  26,458.93  768.98   

Monday 3/19/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

The red lines outline a chart pattern I don't talk much about. It's called a measured move up.

The thinking about this pattern is that the CD leg will equal the AB leg.

One of the things I found about the measured move is that price returns to the corrective phase (BC) 57% of the time, according to my book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy.

I show a picture of that book for your viewing pleasure. Maybe you'd like to buy a copy.

 

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 157.13 points.
Tuesday: Down 171.58 points.
Wednesday: Down 248.91 points.
Thursday: Up 115.54 points.
Friday: Up 72.85 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 389.23 points or 1.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 78.82 points or 1.0%.
The S&P 500 index was down 34.56 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.3% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     6.8% up from the low of 23,360.29 on 02/09/2018.
Nasdaq
     2.0% down from the high of 7,637.27 on 03/13/2018.
     12.8% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     4.2% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     8.7% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/16/2018, the CPI had:

8 bearish patterns,
34 bullish patterns,
410 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 81.0%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,771  24,859  24,945  25,033  25,119 
Weekly  24,241  24,594  25,021  25,374  25,802 
Monthly  23,406  24,176  24,988  25,759  26,571 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,743  2,747  2,755  2,759  2,766 
Weekly  2,705  2,728  2,765  2,789  2,826 
Monthly  2,546  2,649  2,725  2,828  2,905 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,449  7,466  7,490  7,506  7,530 
Weekly  7,353  7,418  7,527  7,592  7,702 
Monthly  6,575  7,029  7,333  7,786  8,091 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.5%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 11.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 26.8%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 55.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.3%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 47.5%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
22Double Top, Adam and Adam
21Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
11Triangle, symmetrical
6Triple top
6Pipe bottom
5Dead-cat bounce
5Triple bottom
3Horn bottom
3Head-and-shoulders top
3Pipe top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Human Resources1. Human Resources
2. Shoe2. Securities Brokerage
3. Semiconductor3. Shoe
4. Internet4. Semiconductor
5. Securities Brokerage5. Internet

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/16/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 17 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 619 stocks searched, or 2.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 4 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ASNARectangle bottom      06/06/201703/15/2018Apparel
BZHTriangle, symmetrical      02/09/201803/15/2018Homebuilding
BMRNPipe bottom      02/26/201803/05/2018Biotechnology
BAHead-and-shoulders top      02/01/201803/12/2018Aerospace/Defense
CALTriple bottom      02/06/201803/09/2018Shoe
CNPTriangle, symmetrical      02/01/201803/14/2018Electric Utility (Central)
EIGIPipe bottom      02/26/201803/05/2018E-Commerce
HPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/27/201803/09/2018Petroleum (Producing)
JBHTTriangle, symmetrical      01/24/201803/15/2018Trucking/Transp. Leasing
INFNFlag, high and tight      02/06/201803/15/2018Telecom. Equipment
LHTriangle, symmetrical      01/29/201803/15/2018Medical Services
LEGPipe bottom      02/26/201803/05/2018Furn/Home Furnishings
SMGBroadening bottom      02/16/201803/15/2018Chemical (Basic)
SIGIBroadening top      12/08/201703/12/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SWXPipe bottom      02/26/201803/05/2018Natural Gas (Distributor)
SMRTFlag, high and tight      03/14/201803/15/2018Apparel
VEEVPennant      03/07/201803/15/2018Healthcare Information
VTriangle, symmetrical      02/01/201803/15/2018Financial Services
WSMTriangle, symmetrical      02/09/201803/13/2018Retail (Special Lines)
DOGTriangle, symmetrical      01/29/201803/15/2018Short ETFs
EWATriangle, symmetrical      01/26/201803/14/2018Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/08/2018 and 03/15/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 495 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $2.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.32 or 15.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.47%
Volume: 1,117,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/06/2017 to 03/15/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 12/05/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/05/2018.
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 325 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $16.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.78 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.55%
Volume: 387,200 shares. 3 month avg: 503,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/09/2018 to 03/15/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $83.57
1 Month avg volatility: $2.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.30 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.28%
Volume: 1,377,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,330,032 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/26/2018 to 03/05/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Boeing Company, The (BA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 53 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $329.98
1 Month avg volatility: $9.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $351.45 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.89%
Volume: 8,450,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,332,308 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 02/01/2018 to 03/12/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Caleres (CAL)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 288 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $31.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.94 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.68%
Volume: 635,200 shares. 3 month avg: 329,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 02/06/2018 to 03/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 533 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $26.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.43 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.08%
Volume: 8,588,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,845,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/01/2018 to 03/14/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Endurance International Group Holdings (EIGI)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 310 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $8.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.35 or 9.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.98%
Volume: 404,300 shares. 3 month avg: 656,929 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/26/2018 to 03/05/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Helmerich and Payne Inc. (HP)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 98 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $62.64
1 Month avg volatility: $2.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.06 or 10.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.09%
Volume: 1,641,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,165 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/27/2018 to 03/09/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Hunt, J.B. (JBHT)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 168 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $119.77
1 Month avg volatility: $2.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $112.88 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.17%
Volume: 461,200 shares. 3 month avg: 898,451 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/24/2018 to 03/15/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 59 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $11.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.28 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 78.99%
Volume: 1,631,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,624,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/06/2018 to 03/15/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/09/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/10/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Labratory Corp of America (LH)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 248 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $173.83
1 Month avg volatility: $3.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $167.10 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.98%
Volume: 386,300 shares. 3 month avg: 674,168 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/29/2018 to 03/15/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Leggett and Platt (LEG)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 408 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $46.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.05 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.60%
Volume: 1,729,400 shares. 3 month avg: 981,391 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/26/2018 to 03/05/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 493 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $88.28
1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $85.30 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.49%
Volume: 608,400 shares. 3 month avg: 327,891 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 02/16/2018 to 03/15/2018
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 151 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $60.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.74 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.58%
Volume: 157,900 shares. 3 month avg: 158,554 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/08/2017 to 03/12/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Southwest Gas Corp. (SWX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 544 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $69.94
1 Month avg volatility: $1.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.08 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.10%
Volume: 268,200 shares. 3 month avg: 213,628 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/26/2018 to 03/05/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 459 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $1.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $0.88 or 32.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.21%
Volume: 33,131,300 shares. 3 month avg: 428,055 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/14/2018 to 03/15/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Veeva Systems Inc (VEEV)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 56 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $77.14
1 Month avg volatility: $2.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.15 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 37.80%
Volume: 740,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 03/07/2018 to 03/15/2018
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Visa (V)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 196 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $123.41
1 Month avg volatility: $2.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $118.28 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.24%
Volume: 5,714,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/01/2018 to 03/15/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 240 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $55.03
1 Month avg volatility: $1.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.41 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.44%
Volume: 6,297,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,925,938 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/09/2018 to 03/13/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJIA short 1x ProShares (DOG)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 545 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $14.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.16 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.94%
Volume: 1,421,000 shares. 3 month avg: 520,655 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/29/2018 to 03/15/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MSCI Australia Index fund (EWA)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 428 out of 611
3/15/18 close: $22.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.22 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.85%
Volume: 1,083,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,915,891 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/26/2018 to 03/14/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 3/15/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.2% or -14.2 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 492 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 256 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 236 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 143/255 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/88 or 52.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The peaks of the last two day's action shows a rounded turn as the red line on the chart shows.

The turn could become a cup with handle or rounding bottom.

Underneath the line is a potential head-and-shoulders bottom. I show that with L as the left shoulder, H for head, and R for right shoulder.

I write potential because it's just squiggles on the price chart until it confirms as a valid pattern. That means the index has to close above the neck line. Roughly, that's a close above the red line.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,299.29    
 Monthly S1  6,898.05  598.76   
 Weekly S2  7,065.48  167.43   
 Monthly Pivot  7,229.43  163.95   
 Weekly S1  7,281.14  51.71   
 Weekly Pivot  7,420.98  139.83   
 Daily S2  7,434.21  13.23   
 Daily S1  7,465.51  31.30   
 Low  7,473.90  8.39   
 Close  7,496.81  22.91   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,501.02  4.21   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  7,505.20  4.18   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,509.40  4.19   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,517.77  8.38   
 Daily R1  7,536.50  18.73   
 Open  7,539.78  3.28   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  7,544.89  5.11   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  7,576.19  31.30   
 Weekly R1  7,636.64  60.45   
 Weekly R2  7,776.48  139.83   
 Monthly R1  7,828.19  51.71   
 Monthly R2  8,159.57  331.38   

Wednesday 3/14/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator remains bullish as the green vertical bar on the far right shows.

The indicator line, shown as a thin blue line near the bottom of the chart, has turned down. It suggests weakness to come.

The reason I say that is because a quick scan of the historical CPI shows that the indicator doesn't hang around for long at a peak.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 21% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 25%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 31% on 02/08/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 515 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

Both red and blue lines improve significantly over the prior week.

Notice, however, that the red and blue lines haven't recovered from where they were back at the January peak in the index. They appear to be about halfway back to the peak. But the trend is upward.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/13/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.6% or -157.13 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 661 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 343 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 318 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 156/262 or 59.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/68 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

A head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern appears on the chart as LS (left shoulder), head, and RS (right shoulder).

Notice that it's a big pattern, spanning 3 days. It confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index gapped above the near-horizontal red line.

If you measure the height of the pattern from the low at the head to the neckline directly above, and add the height to the breakout price, you get a target. Price met the target at A.

And that's how it's supposed to work.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  22,339.69    
 Monthly S1  23,759.15  1,419.46   
 Weekly S2  24,018.18  259.03   
 Weekly S1  24,598.40  580.21   
 Monthly Pivot  24,779.75  181.35   
 Daily S2  24,962.80  183.05   
 Weekly Pivot  24,967.36  4.57   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  25,070.70  103.34   
 Low  25,152.02  81.32   
 Close  25,178.61  26.59   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  25,259.93  81.32   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  25,265.52  5.60   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  25,300.59  35.06   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  25,335.65  35.06   
 Daily R1  25,367.83  32.19   
 Open  25,372.44  4.61   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  25,449.15  76.71   
 Weekly R1  25,547.58  98.43   
 Daily R2  25,557.06  9.48   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  25,916.54  359.49   
 Monthly R1  26,199.21  282.67   
 Monthly R2  27,219.81  1,020.60   

Monday 3/12/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

This figure is of a symmetrical triangle, highlighted in red.

Price has touched the border twice on each side, which is one less than I consider a minimum (clarification: I like a min of 5 touches), but in cases like this, I let it go.

Clearly, though, the index has formed narrowing turns, converging is a better word.

Going forward, if the index reaches the top red line, we can expect it to turn down. It might not, given that the economy is recovering well from the 2008 disaster.

Sooner or later, it'll break out of the pattern either upward or downward by crossing one of the red lines. I'm hoping on upward. Let's see if that's what happens.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 336.7 points.
Tuesday: Up 9.36 points.
Wednesday: Down 82.76 points.
Thursday: Up 93.85 points.
Friday: Up 440.53 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 797.68 points or 3.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 302.94 points or 4.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 95.32 points or 3.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.8% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     8.5% up from the low of 23,360.29 on 02/09/2018.
Nasdaq
     0.0% down from the high of 7,560.81 on 03/09/2018.
     14.0% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     3.0% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     10.0% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/09/2018, the CPI had:

0 bearish patterns,
153 bullish patterns,
401 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 100.0%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,894  25,115  25,226  25,446  25,557 
Weekly  24,071  24,703  25,020  25,652  25,969 
Monthly  22,392  23,864  24,832  26,304  27,272 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,740  2,763  2,775  2,798  2,810 
Weekly  2,639  2,713  2,750  2,824  2,860 
Monthly  2,446  2,616  2,703  2,873  2,959 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,438  7,500  7,530  7,591  7,622 
Weekly  7,087  7,324  7,442  7,679  7,798 
Monthly  6,321  6,941  7,251  7,871  8,181 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 45.5%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 54.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 45.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 55.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 46.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 47.5%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
82Pipe bottom
22Double Top, Adam and Adam
16Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
6Triple top
5Dead-cat bounce
4Triangle, symmetrical
3Horn bottom
3Triple bottom
3Head-and-shoulders top
3Broadening bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Human Resources1. Shoe
2. Securities Brokerage2. Human Resources
3. Shoe3. Petroleum (Producing)
4. Semiconductor4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. Internet5. Semiconductor

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/9/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 619 stocks searched, or 2.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ANFDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/09/201803/02/2018Apparel
ACETBroadening top, right-angled and descending      02/12/201803/06/2018Chemical (Diversified)
ASNARectangle bottom      06/06/201703/08/2018Apparel
CGIPipe bottom      02/20/201802/26/2018Trucking/Transp. Leasing
CHDRising wedge      01/30/201803/08/2018Household Products
CTSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/09/201803/02/2018Electronics
GNWBig W      02/13/201803/02/2018Insurance (Life)
THGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/09/201803/02/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
KFRCScallop, ascending and inverted      02/09/201803/05/2018Human Resources
MRTNTriangle, symmetrical      02/09/201803/08/2018Trucking/Transp. Leasing
QSIITriple bottom      02/09/201803/02/2018Healthcare Information
ROSTTriple top      02/15/201803/06/2018Retail (Special Lines)
SEEDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/09/201803/02/2018Packaging and Container
SIGITriple bottom      02/06/201803/02/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
TGBroadening bottom      02/09/201803/07/2018Chemical (Specialty)
TUESRectangle top      09/28/201703/07/2018Retail Store
WRBDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/09/201803/02/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
WSODouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/13/201803/02/2018Retail Building Supply
IATTriangle, ascending      01/29/201803/08/2018Long ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/01/2018 and 03/08/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abercrombie and Fitch Co. (ANF)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 15 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $22.35
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.88 or 11.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 28.23%
Volume: 7,516,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,821,334 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/09/2018 to 03/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 598 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $7.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.65 or 9.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.56%
Volume: 239,500 shares. 3 month avg: 395,892 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 02/12/2018 to 03/06/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/02/2018. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/04/2018 and a 38% chance by 08/03/2018.
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 390 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $2.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.46 or 14.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.51%
Volume: 2,396,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/06/2017 to 03/08/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 12/05/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/05/2018.
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Celadon Group Inc. (CGI)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 573 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $4.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.50 or 20.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -31.25%
Volume: 272,700 shares. 3 month avg: 443,609 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/20/2018 to 02/26/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Church and Dwight Co Inc (CHD)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 408 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $50.98
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $53.04 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.61%
Volume: 1,367,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,023,622 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/30/2018 to 03/08/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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CTS Corp (CTS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 186 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $26.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.19 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.66%
Volume: 65,900 shares. 3 month avg: 73,662 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/09/2018 to 03/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 531 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $3.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.71 or 11.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.17%
Volume: 3,825,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,022,160 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Big W reversal pattern from 02/13/2018 to 03/02/2018
Breakout is upward 71% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 32% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 42% of the time.

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Hanover Insurance Group, The (THG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 137 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $113.93
1 Month avg volatility: $2.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $106.47 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.41%
Volume: 140,900 shares. 3 month avg: 201,215 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/09/2018 to 03/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Kforce Inc (KFRC)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 19 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $28.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.21 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.87%
Volume: 249,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 02/09/2018 to 03/05/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 130 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $22.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.35 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.62%
Volume: 153,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/09/2018 to 03/08/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Quality Systems Inc (QSII)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 569 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $13.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.27 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.43%
Volume: 537,500 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 02/09/2018 to 03/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Ross Stores (ROST)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 107 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $75.22
1 Month avg volatility: $2.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $81.77 or 8.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.27%
Volume: 3,767,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,750,108 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 02/15/2018 to 03/06/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Sealed Air Corp (SEE)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 428 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $43.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.36 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.16%
Volume: 1,326,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,419,223 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/09/2018 to 03/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 120 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $59.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.80 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.28%
Volume: 163,500 shares. 3 month avg: 158,554 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 02/06/2018 to 03/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Tredegar Corp (TG)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 304 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $17.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.05 or 9.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.29%
Volume: 48,300 shares. 3 month avg: 64,734 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 02/09/2018 to 03/07/2018
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Tuesday Morning Corp (TUES)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 25 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $3.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.02 or 8.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.00%
Volume: 402,900 shares. 3 month avg: 391,566 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 09/28/2017 to 03/07/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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W. R. Berkley Corp (WRB)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 301 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $70.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $67.51 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.61%
Volume: 391,800 shares. 3 month avg: 444,512 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/09/2018 to 03/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Watsco, Inc (WSO)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 196 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $173.97
1 Month avg volatility: $4.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $162.55 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.31%
Volume: 234,300 shares. 3 month avg: 222,320 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 02/13/2018 to 03/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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iShares DJ US Regional Banks (IAT)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 136 out of 611
3/8/18 close: $53.57
1 Month avg volatility: $1.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.50 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.55%
Volume: 76,400 shares. 3 month avg: 125,471 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 01/29/2018 to 03/08/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Thursday 3/8/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.3% or 24.64 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 632 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 347 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 285 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 142/254 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/88 or 52.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This pic is a study in mirrors or reflections. First, I drew the horizontal red line, B. Notice how the index hit the line (the peaks to the left of B) and moved sideways for another try (the peaks to the left of A). It finally punched through at A.

The blue lines show a reflection about some invisible vertical line. If the mirror holds, then look for the index to climb to the price of C before dropping down, as the red line on the far right shows.

Just be warned that this type of projection works well for planning purposes, but often the markets have other plans and tend to go their own way.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,302.60    
 Monthly S1  6,849.62  547.03   
 Weekly S2  6,953.26  103.64   
 Weekly S1  7,174.96  221.69   
 Monthly Pivot  7,177.70  2.74   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S2  7,278.68  100.98   
 Weekly Pivot  7,306.52  27.85   
 Low  7,311.74  5.22   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  7,311.74  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  7,337.66  25.92   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,346.90  9.24   
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,357.77  10.86   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,368.63  10.86   
 Daily Pivot  7,370.73  2.10   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  7,396.65  25.92   
 High  7,403.79  7.14   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  7,429.71  25.92   
 Daily R2  7,462.78  33.06   
 Weekly R1  7,528.22  65.44   
 Weekly R2  7,659.78  131.57   
 Monthly R1  7,724.72  64.94   
 Monthly R2  8,052.80  328.07   

Wednesday 3/7/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator turned green a few days ago, as the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart shows.

The indicator line near the bottom of the chart is mostly hidden, but you can see it's responded by moving higher, too. Thus, the chart is bullish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 22%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 31% on 02/08/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 515 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

Even as the CPI chart is bullish, both of these lines are more bearish this week than last.

The red line, for example, shows a big drop. Even though the line has recovered during the last two days, it hasn't made it back up to where it was a week ago. The slide from 22% bearish to 25% bearish today is a big move for the red line.

My guess is that even though these lines are bearish, they lag behind the CPI. So I expect to see more improvement in the two lines, but I also expect weakness in the CPI. So it'll drop some.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/6/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 1.4% or 336.7 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 199 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 114 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 85 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 155/261 or 59.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/68 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

This pic reminds me of a cloud bank pattern except that it's intraday and not on the weekly or monthly scale. The cloud bank is the horizontal move at D, extending to last Monday.

Price makes a strong drop down to A followed by a recovery to the cloud bank at B. Oddly enough, my research shows that it can take as much time for a security to climb from A to B as it will take price to move through the cloud bank from B to C. In other words, overhead resistance can be tough to push through.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  21,694.17    
 Monthly S1  23,284.46  1,590.30   
 Weekly S2  23,381.70  97.24   
 Weekly S1  24,128.23  746.53   
 Daily S2  24,167.12  38.89   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  24,387.15  220.03   
 Open  24,471.31  84.16   
 Daily S1  24,520.94  49.63   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  24,606.36  85.42   
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,674.07  67.71   
 Daily Pivot  24,740.97  66.90   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,741.79  0.82   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  24,874.76  132.97   
 Monthly Pivot  24,950.59  75.83   
 High  24,961.00  10.41   Yes! The High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  24,964.29  3.29   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  25,094.79  130.50   
 Daily R2  25,314.82  220.03   
 Weekly R1  25,710.82  396.00   
 Monthly R1  26,540.88  830.06   
 Weekly R2  26,546.88  6.00   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  28,207.01  1,660.13   

Monday 3/5/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Down transports on the daily scale.

You might look at this picture and see a left shoulder (LS), head, and right shoulder (RS) and think it's a head-and-shoulders top chart pattern.

Indeed, I allow many variations of patterns to be called valid. Patternz, my free pattern recognition program often botches pattern recognition.

In this case, the pattern has strayed too far from the pack.

The right shoulder is too far above the left. The left shoulder is just a slight pause in an uptrend whereas the right shoulder is a nicely defined minor high.

So this pattern isn't a pattern at all. It's just squiggles on the price chart.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 399.28 points.
Tuesday: Down 299.24 points.
Wednesday: Down 380.83 points.
Thursday: Down 420.22 points.
Friday: Down 70.92 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 771.93 points or 3.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 79.52 points or 1.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 56.05 points or 2.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     7.8% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     5.0% up from the low of 23,360.29 on 02/09/2018.
Nasdaq
     3.3% down from the high of 7,505.77 on 01/26/2018.
     9.5% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     6.3% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     6.3% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/02/2018, the CPI had:

6 bearish patterns,
9 bullish patterns,
183 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 60.0%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 3 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,075  24,306  24,449  24,681  24,824 
Weekly  23,269  23,904  24,852  25,486  26,435 
Monthly  21,582  23,060  24,838  26,316  28,095 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,629  2,660  2,678  2,709  2,727 
Weekly  2,567  2,629  2,709  2,771  2,851 
Monthly  2,359  2,525  2,699  2,865  3,039 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,021  7,139  7,203  7,322  7,386 
Weekly  6,907  7,082  7,260  7,436  7,614 
Monthly  6,256  6,757  7,131  7,632  8,007 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.6%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 11.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 26.9%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 11.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.4%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 15.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
67Pipe bottom
21Double Top, Adam and Adam
10Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
9Broadening top
5Triple top
5Dead-cat bounce
4Head-and-shoulders top
4Broadening bottom
3Triangle, symmetrical
2Rectangle top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Human Resources2. Semiconductor
3. Petroleum (Producing)3. Electronics
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Computers and Peripherals
5. Semiconductor5. Homebuilding

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/2/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 38 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 619 stocks searched, or 6.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 12 bearish ones with any remaining (15) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
DDDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/06/201802/28/2018Electronics
ADTNBroadening bottom      01/25/201802/28/2018Telecom. Equipment
ATSGHorn bottom      02/05/201802/20/2018Air Transport
DOXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/16/201802/27/2018IT Services
APCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/20/201802/26/2018Petroleum (Producing)
ANIKDead-cat bounce      02/23/201802/23/2018Biotechnology
ASNARectangle bottom      06/06/201703/01/2018Apparel
ASHTriangle, symmetrical      01/30/201802/28/2018Chemical (Basic)
BMRNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/16/201802/23/2018Biotechnology
BLDRDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/09/201802/28/2018Retail Building Supply
CBTTriple top      02/15/201802/26/2018Chemical (Diversified)
CALTriple top      02/09/201802/27/2018Shoe
CELGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/15/201802/27/2018Biotechnology
CENXPipe top      02/12/201802/20/2018Metals and Mining (Div.)
EDTriple top      02/12/201802/26/2018Electric Utility (East)
GLWDouble Top, Eve and Adam      02/15/201802/27/2018Telecom. Equipment
COTYPipe top      02/12/201802/20/2018Toiletries/Cosmetics
CCRNDead-cat bounce      03/01/201803/01/2018Human Resources
FASTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/15/201802/27/2018Retail Building Supply
GILDDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/15/201802/27/2018Biotechnology
IBPDead-cat bounce      02/28/201802/28/2018Retail Building Supply
JNJDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/16/201802/26/2018Medical Supplies
KFRCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/20/201802/26/2018Human Resources
LNCTriple top      02/15/201802/27/2018Insurance (Life)
MDTHead-and-shoulders top      02/07/201802/27/2018Medical Supplies
NOCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/16/201802/27/2018Aerospace/Defense
PDCODead-cat bounce      03/01/201803/01/2018Medical Supplies
PAYXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/16/201802/27/2018IT Services
ROGDead-cat bounce      02/27/201802/28/2018Electronics
TUESRectangle top      09/28/201703/01/2018Retail Store
UNMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/15/201802/27/2018Insurance (Diversified)
VLODouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/16/201802/27/2018Petroleum (Integrated)
IGEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/16/201802/27/2018Petroleum (Integrated)
EZADouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/15/201802/26/2018Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/16/201802/26/2018Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWUDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/16/201802/26/2018Investment Co. (Foreign)
IEVDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/16/201802/26/2018Investment Co. (Foreign)
XRTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/16/201802/27/2018Retail Store

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/22/2018 and 03/01/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
3D Systems (DDD)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 566 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $10.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.55 or 11.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.31%
Volume: 11,909,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,031,971 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/06/2018 to 02/28/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/01/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/02/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 597 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $15.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.51 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.90%
Volume: 524,300 shares. 3 month avg: 348,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 01/25/2018 to 02/28/2018
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Air Transport Services Group (ATSG)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 265 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $25.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.34 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.69%
Volume: 870,400 shares. 3 month avg: 530,657 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 02/20/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Amdocs Limited (DOX)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 398 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $65.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.77 or 5.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.41%
Volume: 638,800 shares. 3 month avg: 895,243 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/16/2018 to 02/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 36 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $57.12
1 Month avg volatility: $2.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $62.15 or 8.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.49%
Volume: 4,254,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,746,292 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/20/2018 to 02/26/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Anika Therapeutics Inc (ANIK)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 461 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $51.51
1 Month avg volatility: $2.99. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.83 or 14.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.45%
Volume: 124,800 shares. 3 month avg: 71,871 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/23/2018 to 02/23/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 249 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $2.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.55 or 12.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.83%
Volume: 1,259,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/06/2017 to 03/01/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 12/05/2017. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 03/06/2018 and a 38% chance by 06/05/2018.
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Ashland Inc. (ASH)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 204 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $70.10
1 Month avg volatility: $2.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.07 or 8.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.54%
Volume: 661,300 shares. 3 month avg: 610,854 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/30/2018 to 02/28/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 529 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $77.67
1 Month avg volatility: $2.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $87.40 or 12.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -12.90%
Volume: 2,774,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,330,032 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/16/2018 to 02/23/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 73 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $21.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.00 or 15.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.75%
Volume: 4,249,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,257,223 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 02/09/2018 to 02/28/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cabot Corp. (CBT)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 206 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $60.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $64.50 or 7.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.26%
Volume: 426,400 shares. 3 month avg: 325,852 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 02/15/2018 to 02/26/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Caleres (CAL)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 346 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $28.12
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.43 or 8.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.48%
Volume: 224,900 shares. 3 month avg: 329,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 02/09/2018 to 02/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Celgene Corp (CELG)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 600 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $87.19
1 Month avg volatility: $2.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $94.82 or 8.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.45%
Volume: 11,700,900 shares. 3 month avg: 7,439,311 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/15/2018 to 02/27/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/26/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/26/2018.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 318 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $20.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.87 or 21.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.28%
Volume: 5,694,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,285,742 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/12/2018 to 02/20/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Con Edison, Inc (ED)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 527 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $74.59
1 Month avg volatility: $1.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.23 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -12.20%
Volume: 2,589,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,605,666 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 02/12/2018 to 02/26/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Corning Inc. (GLW)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 426 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $28.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.96 or 9.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.22%
Volume: 9,160,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,449,098 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 02/15/2018 to 02/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Coty (COTY)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 207 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $19.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.56 or 8.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.27%
Volume: 5,083,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,764,371 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/12/2018 to 02/20/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Cross Country Healthcare Inc (CCRN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $10.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.95 or 11.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.07%
Volume: 908,100 shares. 3 month avg: 226,311 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/01/2018 to 03/01/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Fastenal Company (FAST)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 82 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $53.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.28 or 8.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.65%
Volume: 2,880,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,417,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/15/2018 to 02/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 471 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $77.53
1 Month avg volatility: $2.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $84.97 or 9.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.22%
Volume: 8,250,000 shares. 3 month avg: 8,272,228 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/15/2018 to 02/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Installed Building Products Inc (IBP)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 407 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $55.55
1 Month avg volatility: $3.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.04 or 22.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -26.86%
Volume: 747,500 shares. 3 month avg: 201,345 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/28/2018 to 02/28/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 457 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $127.28
1 Month avg volatility: $3.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $137.09 or 7.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.90%
Volume: 8,524,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,464,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/16/2018 to 02/26/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Kforce Inc (KFRC)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 17 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $27.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.68 or 9.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.52%
Volume: 185,500 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/20/2018 to 02/26/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Lincoln National Corp (LNC)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 293 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $73.88
1 Month avg volatility: $2.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $81.61 or 10.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.89%
Volume: 1,435,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,171,931 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 02/15/2018 to 02/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Medtronic Inc (MDT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 445 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $78.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $83.48 or 6.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.03%
Volume: 7,921,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,761,640 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 02/07/2018 to 02/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 100 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $339.54
1 Month avg volatility: $9.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $370.65 or 9.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.63%
Volume: 1,453,700 shares. 3 month avg: 756,831 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/16/2018 to 02/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Patterson Companies Inc. (PDCO)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 601 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $24.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28.28 or 17.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -33.30%
Volume: 15,332,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,885,975 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/01/2018 to 03/01/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Paychex Inc (PAYX)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 254 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $63.55
1 Month avg volatility: $1.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.85 or 8.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.65%
Volume: 2,711,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,048,471 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/16/2018 to 02/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Rogers Corp (ROG)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 301 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $127.95
1 Month avg volatility: $6.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $149.51 or 16.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.98%
Volume: 342,900 shares. 3 month avg: 155,332 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/27/2018 to 02/28/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Tuesday Morning Corp (TUES)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 55 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $3.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.73 or 13.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.55%
Volume: 342,200 shares. 3 month avg: 391,566 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 09/28/2017 to 03/01/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Unum Group (UNM)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 386 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $49.31
1 Month avg volatility: $1.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $54.34 or 10.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -10.17%
Volume: 2,331,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,168,134 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/15/2018 to 02/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Valero Energy (VLO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 62 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $90.82
1 Month avg volatility: $3.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $98.64 or 8.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.19%
Volume: 2,881,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,584,486 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/16/2018 to 02/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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iShares SP Natural resources (oil) (IGE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 350 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $32.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.47 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.54%
Volume: 85,500 shares. 3 month avg: 89,118 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/16/2018 to 02/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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MSCI South Africa Index (EZA)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 221 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $71.22
1 Month avg volatility: $1.95. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $76.34 or 7.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.28%
Volume: 517,800 shares. 3 month avg: 477,440 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/15/2018 to 02/26/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 442 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $36.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.50 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.24%
Volume: 8,415,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,452,454 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/16/2018 to 02/26/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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MSCI United Kingdom Index (EWU)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 390 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $34.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.68 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.72%
Volume: 4,533,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,758,686 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/16/2018 to 02/26/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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S and P Europe 350 Index fund (IEV)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 384 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $46.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.07 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.55%
Volume: 871,600 shares. 3 month avg: 461,498 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/16/2018 to 02/26/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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SPDR Retail ETF (XRT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 210 out of 611
3/1/18 close: $44.85
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $47.72 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.58%
Volume: 5,642,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,648,571 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/16/2018 to 02/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Thursday 3/1/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.8% or -57.34 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 245 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 121 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 124 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 142/254 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 45/87 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This chart shows an interesting combination, one I consider rare (that is, the broadening patterns are rare, not the combination of the two).

The two patterns you see here in red and blue are broadening patterns. The first, blue (A), is an ascending, right-angled broadening formation. Price swings from top to bottom plenty of times with the bottom ones touching the horizontal blue trendline and the peaks touching the top, up-sloping trendline.

Price at C is an example of a partial decline. These short down-swings can predict an upward breakout.

The second pattern (B) is a broadening bottom. Price also crosses the pattern from top to bottom several times, filling the white space with price movement.

In this pattern, price enters from the top. The top trendline slopes upward (not by a lot in this example) and the bottom one slopes downward.

Notice that this shows a downward breakout. It suggests that price will continue down, but that's no guarantee.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,261.38    
 Monthly S1  6,767.20  505.81   
 Weekly S2  7,125.03  357.83   
 Monthly Pivot  7,136.48  11.45   
 Daily S2  7,197.15  60.67   
 Weekly S1  7,199.02  1.87   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  7,235.08  36.06   
 Weekly Pivot  7,268.83  33.75   
 Close  7,273.01  4.18   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  7,273.01  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  7,310.94  37.93   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,316.48  5.54   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,329.90  13.43   
 Weekly R1  7,342.82  12.92   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,343.33  0.51   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R1  7,348.87  5.54   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  7,371.41  22.54   
 High  7,386.80  15.39   
 Weekly R2  7,412.63  25.83   
 Daily R2  7,424.73  12.10   
 Monthly R1  7,642.30  217.57   
 Monthly R2  8,011.58  369.29   

Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.