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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 04/25/2017
20,996 232.23 1.1%
9,249 -33.57 -0.4%
708 -0.61 -0.1%
6,025 41.67 0.7%
2,389 14.46 0.6%
YTD
6.2%
2.3%
7.4%
11.9%
6.7%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 04/17/2017
20,100 or 21,150 by 05/01/2017
8,500 or 9,500 by 05/01/2017
725 or 685 by 05/01/2017
6,150 or 5,900 by 05/15/2017
2,275 or 2,425 by 05/01/2017
Mutt Winners: None YTD

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March 2017 Headlines


Archives


Friday 3/31/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 615 stocks searched, or 3.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 12 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISChannel      04/29/201603/30/2017Semiconductor
AESTriangle, descending      12/01/201603/30/2017Electric Utility (East)
APATriple bottom      03/09/201703/27/2017Petroleum (Producing)
CFDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      03/16/201703/27/2017Chemical (Basic)
CTSTriangle, symmetrical      12/16/201603/29/2017Electronics
XRAYTriangle, descending      02/24/201703/30/2017Medical Supplies
EMNBig W      03/13/201703/27/2017Chemical (Diversified)
EOGDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/14/201703/27/2017Natural Gas (Distributor)
FLSTriple bottom      03/09/201703/27/2017Machinery
GNWRectangle top      02/16/201703/30/2017Insurance (Life)
GXPTriangle, symmetrical      03/09/201703/29/2017Electric Utility (Central)
GFFChannel      01/04/201703/30/2017Building Materials
HLITTriangle, symmetrical      03/08/201703/30/2017Telecom. Equipment
MURTriple bottom      03/09/201703/27/2017Petroleum (Integrated)
NCSRectangle bottom      12/13/201603/29/2017Building Materials
NFXDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      03/14/201703/27/2017Natural Gas (Diversified)
OMCTriangle, descending      02/06/201703/27/2017Advertising
SMGTriangle, symmetrical      01/25/201703/30/2017Chemical (Basic)
TFXTriangle, symmetrical      03/02/201703/30/2017Diversified Co.
USGHead-and-shoulders complex top      02/15/201703/28/2017Building Materials
IXCTriple bottom      03/09/201703/27/2017Investment Co. (Foreign)
XLEChannel      12/15/201603/30/2017Petroleum (Integrated)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/23/2017 and 03/30/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 18 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $68.34
1 Month avg volatility: $1.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.88 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.82%
Volume: 460,000 shares. 3 month avg: 404,968 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 03/30/2017

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AES Corp (AES)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 560 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $11.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.73 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.65%
Volume: 6,948,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,321,917 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 12/01/2016 to 03/30/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Apache Corp. (APA)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 574 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $52.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.81 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.93%
Volume: 4,635,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,610,105 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2017 to 03/27/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 94 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $29.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.72 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.75%
Volume: 6,368,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,416,840 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 03/16/2017 to 03/27/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 40%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

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CTS Corp (CTS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 168 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $21.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.16 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.79%
Volume: 104,200 shares. 3 month avg: 81,288 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/16/2016 to 03/29/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dentsply International, Inc. (XRAY)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 354 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $62.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $64.55 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.52%
Volume: 621,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,602,757 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/24/2017 to 03/30/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Eastman Chemical (EMN)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 118 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $81.08
1 Month avg volatility: $1.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $77.75 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.80%
Volume: 1,896,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,212,868 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Big W reversal pattern from 03/13/2017 to 03/27/2017
Breakout is upward 71% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 32% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 42% of the time.

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EOG Resources (EOG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 390 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $97.17
1 Month avg volatility: $2.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $93.06 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.89%
Volume: 7,508,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,314,178 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 03/14/2017 to 03/27/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Flowserve Corp (FLS)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 412 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $48.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.33 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.10%
Volume: 1,632,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,426,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2017 to 03/27/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 567 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $4.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.76 or 8.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.87%
Volume: 8,480,800 shares. 3 month avg: 7,914,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/16/2017 to 03/30/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Great Plains Energy (GXP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 383 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $28.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.00 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.78%
Volume: 1,320,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,965,257 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/09/2017 to 03/29/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 23 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $24.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.83 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.68%
Volume: 112,900 shares. 3 month avg: 167,892 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/04/2017 to 03/30/2017

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Harmonic Inc (HLIT)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 425 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $5.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.26 or 10.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.00%
Volume: 529,300 shares. 3 month avg: 624,040 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/08/2017 to 03/30/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 475 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $28.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.35 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.16%
Volume: 3,828,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,808,118 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2017 to 03/27/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 142 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $17.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.32 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.54%
Volume: 645,700 shares. 3 month avg: 339,155 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 12/13/2016 to 03/29/2017
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Newfield Exploration Company (NFX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 546 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $36.71
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.10 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.36%
Volume: 5,333,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,883,635 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 03/14/2017 to 03/27/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 434 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $85.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $88.03 or 2.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.93%
Volume: 1,475,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,462,606 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/06/2017 to 03/27/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 227 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $93.15
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $90.84 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.51%
Volume: 333,600 shares. 3 month avg: 451,968 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/25/2017 to 03/30/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Teleflex Inc (TFX)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 175 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $194.58
1 Month avg volatility: $2.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $188.49 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.74%
Volume: 147,400 shares. 3 month avg: 263,778 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/02/2017 to 03/30/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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USG Corp (USG)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 126 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $31.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.71 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.28%
Volume: 1,814,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,428,058 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex top reversal pattern from 02/15/2017 to 03/28/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 67% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 53% of the time.

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S and P Global Energy Sector Index fund (IXC)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 397 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $33.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.56 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.31%
Volume: 185,000 shares. 3 month avg: 211,291 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2017 to 03/27/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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SPDR Energy Select Sector (XLE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 437 out of 607
3/30/17 close: $70.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.10 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.88%
Volume: 15,422,400 shares. 3 month avg: 13,120,882 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 12/15/2016 to 03/30/2017

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Thursday 3/30/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.4% or 22.41 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 577 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 367 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 210 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 123/217 or 56.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/80 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A large rounding turn with an uneven bottom appears in the pic, highlighted by the red arc. Notice how the ending price is near the beginning price. Perhaps it'll form a handle, qualifying the pattern as a cup with handle.

There is also a double bottom, which I show here as Eve & Adam. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the blue line. That happens at A.

The measure rule target for this suggests the index should climb to about 5,950. The measure rule applies the height of the pattern added to the breakout price for this pattern.

Anyway, perhaps we'll see the index reach the target tomorrow, but it's rare that the measure rule works for patterns and targets which span days, as in this case.

$ $ $

The US weather service has confirmed my subdivision was hit by an EF 0 tornado during last night's storm. Interesting to live through it.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,722.88    
 Weekly S2  5,722.88  0.00   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S2.
 Weekly S1  5,810.21  87.34   
 Monthly S1  5,810.21  0.00   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S2  5,859.84  49.63   
 Weekly Pivot  5,869.14  9.29   
 Monthly Pivot  5,869.14  0.00   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  5,870.93  1.79   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Open  5,875.35  4.42   
 Daily S1  5,878.70  3.35   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,882.37  3.67   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,885.90  3.53   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,889.43  3.53   
 Daily Pivot  5,889.78  0.35   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,897.55  7.77   
 High  5,900.87  3.32   
 Daily R1  5,908.64  7.77   
 Daily R2  5,919.72  11.09   
 Weekly R1  5,956.47  36.75   
 Monthly R1  5,956.47  0.00   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Monthly R2  6,015.40  58.92   
 Weekly R2  6,015.40  0.00   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R2.

Wednesday 3/29/17. Storm Damage

Picture of storm damage.

This is a picture of my neighbors house. That's my tree sitting in his driveway.

You can't see it from this angle but two limbs, about as thick as your thigh, broke off during last night's storm.

The national weather service had been warning all day that there would likely be severe weather, hail and straight line winds, but maybe some tornados mixed in for spice.

The squall line (a weather front) arrived at about 2:30 AM.

The arrival woke me up and I thought it would be a good idea to bring inside my plastic chair from my back porch. I think I went out just as the fiercest winds hit.

My neighbor tells me that he heard the gusts were up to 85 mph. Within seconds, I was back inside and saw the blue flashes of light (electric transformers blowing).

Power went out.

I huddled in my downstairs bathroom, which I use as a storm shelter, and waited for the storm to pass.

Later, through the flashes of lightning, I didn't see any damage and was surprised to see that my fence was still intact. I also hoped that my new roof, which I had installed this past October, was in good shape. The contractor said installation was rated at 130 mph. I don't appear to have lost any shingles, fortunately.

This morning, I decided to sleep in late but when I got up and looked around, I saw the tree limbs in my neighbors driveway. He moved them some to get his wife's car out.

Damage to my property: One of my gutters looks ready to fall and, of course, the live oak in the front yard. Plus, the power of the wind yanked out a 2" deep eye-hook from wood holding up my clothes line. Think how powerful the wind must have been to do that.

It took less than three hours to remove the limbs and package them up for pickup by the city, with help from my neighbor.

The nearby Home Depot had several sample sheds which were flattened by the winds. Pieces blew up against an 18-wheeler where a guy was sleeping in the cab.

I'm ready to face more storms this weekend.

Addendum: The national weather service said that my subdivision was hit by an EF 0 tornado.

-- Thomas Bulkowski


Tuesday 3/28/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.2% or -45.74 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1173 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 590 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 583 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 133/225 or 59.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/64 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The two red lines show support and resistance within the A region.

This is not a rectangle bottom because there are not enough touches of the trendlines.

However, we can consider the move up to the bottom line as a pullback. It just looks like one to me. And that suggests the index will drop on Tuesday.

Additionally, a small double top appears at B, but this hasn't confirmed yet. That means the index still needs to close below the low between the two peaks. If it does that, then look for the index to drop further.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  20,110.48    
 Weekly S2  20,243.19  132.71   
 Monthly S1  20,330.73  87.54   
 Daily S2  20,348.42  17.69   
 Weekly S1  20,397.09  48.67   
 Low  20,412.80  15.71   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  20,449.70  36.90   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  20,476.08  26.38   
 Open  20,488.35  12.27   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  20,495.63  7.28   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  20,514.08  18.45   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  20,515.18  1.10   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  20,550.98  35.80   
 High  20,578.46  27.48   
 Daily R1  20,615.36  36.90   
 Daily R2  20,679.74  64.38   
 Weekly Pivot  20,683.56  3.82   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly Pivot  20,749.92  66.36   
 Weekly R1  20,837.46  87.54   
 Monthly R1  20,970.17  132.71   
 Weekly R2  21,123.93  153.76   
 Monthly R2  21,389.36  265.43   

Tuesday Special

Picture of the head's law.
Kindle
Paperback
Nook

My first novel, Head's Law appears on the right.

I struggled trying to decide which chapter should be the first one.

Here's the chapter that was to be the opening sequence until the last minute, when I withdrew it. You can read the pdf file. If you like it, consider buying a copy of the book. It's available in kindle, nook, and paperback versions.

$ $ $

I was working in my garage and discovered that a squirrel had used a cabinet as a nest. Lots of eaten acorns loaded with sap and lots of dropping. I found other locations in the garage where it was eating, too. What a mess.


Monday 3/27/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

The index has been climbing for quite a while now without a significant retrace. The rise started at D and climbed up to A.

After A, it has moved sideways, forming another peak at B.

Peak B is slightly higher than A, qualifying it as a 2B pattern.

When the index dropped below the red line at C, it also qualified as a double top.

Both of those patterns suggests the index is going down. However, often the drop after a double top isn't anything to worry about (meaning it'll likely be much less than 20%).

It is time for the indices to retrace. Perhaps the index will just move sideways for several months, bobbing up and down without forming any sustained trend.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 8.86 points.
Tuesday: Down 237.75 points.
Wednesday: Down 6.71 points.
Thursday: Down 4.72 points.
Friday: Down 59.86 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 317.9 points or 1.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 72.26 points or 1.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 34.27 points or 1.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.7% down from the high of 21,169.11 on 03/01/2017.
     4.7% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     1.7% down from the high of 5,928.06 on 03/21/2017.
     8.0% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     2.4% down from the high of 2,400.98 on 03/01/2017.
     4.4% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/24/2017, the CPI had:

26 bearish patterns,
5 bullish patterns,
244 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 16.1%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  20,426  20,511  20,615  20,700  20,804 
Weekly  20,258  20,428  20,699  20,868  21,139 
Monthly  20,126  20,361  20,765  21,001  21,405 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,325  2,334  2,345  2,355  2,366 
Weekly  2,308  2,326  2,354  2,372  2,400 
Monthly  2,295  2,319  2,360  2,385  2,425 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,781  5,805  5,832  5,856  5,883 
Weekly  5,700  5,764  5,846  5,911  5,992 
Monthly  5,700  5,764  5,846  5,911  5,992 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.7%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 21.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.3%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 21.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 27.9%   The trend may continue. 
 5 months up 12.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
21Triangle, symmetrical
15Double Top, Adam and Adam
13Head-and-shoulders top
7Triangle, descending
6Rising wedge
5Channel
4Triangle, ascending
4Broadening top
3Pipe bottom
3Double Top, Eve and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Securities Brokerage
2. Semiconductor2. Human Resources
3. Securities Brokerage3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Human Resources4. Semiconductor
5. Electronics5. Electronics
50. Retail Store50. Petroleum (Producing)
51. Toiletries/Cosmetics51. Retail Store
52. Retail (Special Lines)52. Toiletries/Cosmetics
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Biotechnology
54. Natural Gas (Diversified)54. Natural Gas (Diversified)
55. Short ETFs55. Furn/Home Furnishings
56. Furn/Home Furnishings56. Apparel
57. Apparel57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/24/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 19 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 615 stocks searched, or 3.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABAXTriangle, symmetrical      02/01/201703/20/2017Medical Supplies
AEISChannel      04/29/201603/23/2017Semiconductor
CTSTriangle, symmetrical      12/16/201603/20/2017Electronics
FEYEPipe bottom      03/06/201703/13/2017Computer Software and Svcs
FISVScallop, ascending and inverted      02/02/201703/22/2017IT Services
FRDTriangle, descending      01/10/201703/23/2017Building Materials
GNWRectangle top      02/16/201703/23/2017Insurance (Life)
GXPTriangle, symmetrical      03/02/201703/22/2017Electric Utility (Central)
HELEHead-and-shoulders top      01/06/201703/17/2017Toiletries/Cosmetics
JBLUTriangle, symmetrical      03/01/201703/23/2017Air Transport
KELYABroadening top, right-angled and ascending      02/10/201703/23/2017Human Resources
LAMRTriangle, ascending      02/24/201703/23/2017Advertising
NCSRectangle bottom      12/13/201603/23/2017Building Materials
NKEDouble Top, Eve and Adam      02/23/201703/21/2017Shoe
OMCTriangle, descending      02/06/201703/23/2017Advertising
PAYXDouble Top, Adam and Eve      03/01/201703/17/2017IT Services
ROKChannel      01/30/201703/23/2017Diversified Co.
SODATriangle, symmetrical      02/15/201703/21/2017Food Processing
PPADouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/02/201703/21/2017Aerospace/Defense
XLEChannel      12/15/201603/23/2017Petroleum (Integrated)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/16/2017 and 03/23/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abaxis Inc (ABAX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 508 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $48.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.08 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.87%
Volume: 125,900 shares. 3 month avg: 154,722 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/01/2017 to 03/20/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 24 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $65.91
1 Month avg volatility: $1.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.90 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.38%
Volume: 341,100 shares. 3 month avg: 410,572 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 03/23/2017

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CTS Corp (CTS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 155 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $21.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.25 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.68%
Volume: 83,900 shares. 3 month avg: 95,571 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/16/2016 to 03/20/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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FireEye Inc (FEYE)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 538 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $12.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.43 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.44%
Volume: 24,824,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,716,248 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/06/2017 to 03/13/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Fiserv, Inc (FISV)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 202 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $115.85
1 Month avg volatility: $1.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $112.09 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.00%
Volume: 839,800 shares. 3 month avg: 973,362 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 02/02/2017 to 03/22/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Friedman Industries Inc (FRD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 136 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $6.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.13 or 11.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.20%
Volume: 16,400 shares. 3 month avg: 43,377 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 01/10/2017 to 03/23/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 567 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $4.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.64 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.51%
Volume: 5,718,500 shares. 3 month avg: 7,840,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/16/2017 to 03/23/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Great Plains Energy (GXP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 343 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $28.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.01 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.41%
Volume: 1,671,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,011,535 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/02/2017 to 03/22/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 322 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $93.55
1 Month avg volatility: $1.67. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $97.58 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.78%
Volume: 96,800 shares. 3 month avg: 184,288 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/06/2017 to 03/17/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 178 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $19.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.66 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.15%
Volume: 3,438,900 shares. 3 month avg: 6,836,263 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/01/2017 to 03/23/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Kelly Services A (KELYA)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 196 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $21.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.54 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.98%
Volume: 164,300 shares. 3 month avg: 96,092 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 02/10/2017 to 03/23/2017
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Lamar Advertising (LAMR)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 152 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $76.69
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.40 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.05%
Volume: 632,000 shares. 3 month avg: 624,543 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/24/2017 to 03/23/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 189 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $16.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.27 or 6.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.51%
Volume: 325,300 shares. 3 month avg: 344,814 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 12/13/2016 to 03/23/2017
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Nike Inc (NKE)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 429 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $55.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $57.34 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.93%
Volume: 22,472,800 shares. 3 month avg: 10,015,757 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 02/23/2017 to 03/21/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 442 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $84.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $87.28 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.69%
Volume: 1,383,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,464,369 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/06/2017 to 03/23/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Paychex Inc (PAYX)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 386 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $61.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.45 or 3.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.05%
Volume: 1,688,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,746,155 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 03/01/2017 to 03/17/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

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Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 58 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $154.08
1 Month avg volatility: $2.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $149.04 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.64%
Volume: 864,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,054,102 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/30/2017 to 03/23/2017

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SodaStream International Ltd (SODA)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 4 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $47.51
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.90 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.37%
Volume: 162,800 shares. 3 month avg: 354,831 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/15/2017 to 03/21/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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PowerShares Aerospace and Defense (PPA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 205 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $43.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $44.68 or 2.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.74%
Volume: 62,500 shares. 3 month avg: 108,529 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/02/2017 to 03/21/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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SPDR Energy Select Sector (XLE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 423 out of 607
3/23/17 close: $68.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.92 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.62%
Volume: 11,544,300 shares. 3 month avg: 12,652,362 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 12/15/2016 to 03/23/2017

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Thursday 3/23/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.5% or 27.81 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 534 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 363 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 171 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 68.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 123/216 or 56.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/80 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A handsome rectangle top appears at B, bounded by the two horizontal red lines. The chart pattern broke out upward and climbed to A before reversing and closing below the chart pattern at B.

Notice the strength of the plunge. That's due to the market reversal, where a falling tide lowers all boats. But this is an example of a busted rectangle.

Sometimes those can lead to profitable trades.

If you shorted when it busted, you'd have made money providing you closed out the trade properly. Another way of saying that is the index met (and exceeded) the measure rule target (often the height of the chart pattern, subtracted from the breakout price in this case).

A head-and-shoulders bottom appears as LHR. The red neckline tilts downward so a close above this is the buy signal (it confirms the pattern as a valid one).

The index has yet to move higher, but I expect that on Thursday. Keep in mind I'm just guessing. I could be wrong.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,663.79    
 Monthly S1  5,742.72  78.92   
 Daily S2  5,765.83  23.12   
 Weekly S2  5,774.65  8.81   
 Low  5,781.80  7.15   
 Open  5,790.59  8.79   
 Daily S1  5,793.74  3.15   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly S1  5,798.14  4.41   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,798.56  0.41   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,803.73  5.18   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,808.91  5.18   
 Daily Pivot  5,809.70  0.79   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,821.64  11.94   
 High  5,825.67  4.03   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot  5,827.66  1.99   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  5,837.61  9.94   
 Daily R2  5,853.57  15.97   
 Weekly Pivot  5,855.38  1.80   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R1  5,878.87  23.50   
 Monthly R1  5,906.59  27.71   
 Weekly R2  5,936.11  29.52   
 Monthly R2  5,991.53  55.43   

Wednesday 3/22/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator flipped to bearish because of the large downward plunge in the indices.

I doubt its staying power. I think we'll see a rebound on Wednesday or soon. And that could make the bearish signal disappear (due to the way the indicator is constructed).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 21% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 21%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 47% on 03/23/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 512 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 12%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 23% on 06/27/2016.

From a week ago, both lines haven't changed, which surprises me. It suggests that maybe, just maybe, this is one of those fleeting bear runs that frightens people out of the market.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/21/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by 0.0% or -8.86 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1249 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 666 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 583 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 133/224 or 59.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/64 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

Earlier in the last 10 days, a nice symmetrical triangle appeared. I show that pattern as B, in magenta. The index broke out downward but didn't drop far, certainly not as far as the measure rule had predicted.

However, the index did return, D, to the launch price, C, in a timely manner. In situations where you see a strong vertical move up, I've seen almost a complete retrace of the move. Frequently, price will stop just above the launch price.

Another pattern appears in red. It's a rounding top. Buried within that top is a head-and-shoulders top, which I show as L, H, R (left, head, right shoulder). It has a down-sloping neckline. Because the neckline can slope downward too steeply, price might never close below it. So I use a horizontal line (shown here in blue, at A). It's hard to tell whether the index closed below the line or not. If it did, then it confirmed the head-and-shoulders top as a valid chart pattern. Otherwise, it's just squiggles on the price chart.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  19,953.11    
 Monthly S1  20,429.44  476.32   
 Weekly S2  20,683.59  254.16   
 Weekly S1  20,794.68  111.08   
 Monthly Pivot  20,799.27  4.60   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S2  20,845.89  46.61   
 Daily S1  20,875.82  29.94   
 Low  20,885.70  9.88   
 Weekly Pivot  20,897.39  11.69   
 Close  20,905.76  8.37   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  20,912.34  6.58   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  20,915.64  3.29   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  20,916.27  0.63   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  20,920.57  4.30   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  20,928.80  8.23   
 Daily R1  20,945.57  16.77   
 High  20,955.45  9.88   
 Daily R2  20,985.39  29.94   
 Weekly R1  21,008.48  23.09   
 Weekly R2  21,111.19  102.72   
 Monthly R1  21,275.60  164.40   
 Monthly R2  21,645.43  369.84   

Monday 3/20/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

The pattern shown here is a measured move up, highlighted in red

The first leg is A, the second leg is C, and B is the corrective phase. I think these are Elliott wave terms. No, I'm not an EW expert so don't ask about that.

My forte is chart patterns.

Returning to our story, the most likely path is that the index will retrace back to the corrective phase (B).

I show that as blue line D.

 

My book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy (conveniently shown on the right and on sale in the lobby ) describes the various paths price may take after a measured move up occurs (see page 273).

It says that 43% of the time, a stock will remain above the corrective phase. That means the majority of the time, 57%, a stock will enter the corrective phase or drop below it (price should dip to B or to A, or even below the start of A).

However, page 269, Figure 12.3, also shows that an upward breakout occurs 85% of the time.

So just because we may get a dip here, it likely won't result in a bear market.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 21.5 points.
Tuesday: Down 44.11 points.
Wednesday: Up 112.73 points.
Thursday: Down 15.55 points.
Friday: Down 19.93 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 11.64 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 39.27 points or 0.7%.
The S&P 500 index was up 5.6499 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.2% down from the high of 21,169.11 on 03/01/2017.
     6.3% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     0.2% down from the high of 5,912.61 on 03/17/2017.
     9.3% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     0.9% down from the high of 2,400.98 on 03/01/2017.
     5.9% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/17/2017, the CPI had:

15 bearish patterns,
19 bullish patterns,
298 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 55.9%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  20,866  20,890  20,935  20,960  21,005 
Weekly  20,687  20,801  20,900  21,014  21,114 
Monthly  19,956  20,435  20,802  21,282  21,648 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,372  2,375  2,381  2,383  2,389 
Weekly  2,344  2,361  2,375  2,393  2,407 
Monthly  2,287  2,333  2,367  2,412  2,446 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,879  5,890  5,901  5,912  5,924 
Weekly  5,801  5,851  5,882  5,932  5,963 
Monthly  5,690  5,796  5,854  5,959  6,018 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 42.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 5 months up 15.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 5 months up 18.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 45.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 5 months up 12.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
21Triangle, symmetrical
8Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Triangle, descending
6Channel
5Rising wedge
3Triangle, ascending
3Head-and-shoulders complex bottom
3Broadening top
3Head-and-shoulders top
3Broadening bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Securities Brokerage1. Securities Brokerage
2. Human Resources2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.3. Human Resources
4. Semiconductor4. Insurance (Life)
5. Electronics5. Semiconductor
50. Petroleum (Producing)50. Retail Store
51. Retail Store51. Retail (Special Lines)
52. Toiletries/Cosmetics52. Toiletries/Cosmetics
53. Biotechnology53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Natural Gas (Diversified)54. Natural Gas (Diversified)
55. Furn/Home Furnishings55. Short ETFs
56. Apparel56. Furn/Home Furnishings
57. Short ETFs57. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/17/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 615 stocks searched, or 2.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISChannel      04/29/201603/16/2017Semiconductor
CGNXChannel      01/11/201603/16/2017Precision Instrument
ETHHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      01/30/201703/13/2017Furn/Home Furnishings
GNWRectangle top      02/16/201703/16/2017Insurance (Life)
INTUTriangle, descending      02/24/201703/16/2017Computer Software and Svcs
KBALTriangle, descending      01/18/201703/15/2017Furn/Home Furnishings
NSHFalling wedge      02/03/201703/16/2017Natural Gas (Distributor)
OMCTriangle, descending      02/06/201703/16/2017Advertising
PXTriangle, symmetrical      01/05/201703/16/2017Chemical (Diversified)
RLRising wedge      02/10/201703/16/2017Apparel
WLKTriangle, symmetrical      02/21/201703/14/2017Chemical (Basic)
XLEChannel      12/15/201603/16/2017Petroleum (Integrated)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/09/2017 and 03/16/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 14 out of 607
3/16/17 close: $68.29
1 Month avg volatility: $1.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.58 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.73%
Volume: 604,000 shares. 3 month avg: 375,729 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 03/16/2017

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Cognex (CGNX)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 11 out of 607
3/16/17 close: $80.37
1 Month avg volatility: $1.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $76.83 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.33%
Volume: 500,800 shares. 3 month avg: 589,291 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/11/2016 to 03/16/2017

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Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (ETH)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 500 out of 607
3/16/17 close: $31.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.34 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.88%
Volume: 398,600 shares. 3 month avg: 280,078 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex bottom reversal pattern from 01/30/2017 to 03/13/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 568 out of 607
3/16/17 close: $4.06
1 Month avg volatility: $0.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.77 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.56%
Volume: 5,551,700 shares. 3 month avg: 7,700,995 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/16/2017 to 03/16/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Intuit Inc (INTU)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 243 out of 607
3/16/17 close: $124.35
1 Month avg volatility: $1.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $127.95 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.50%
Volume: 1,259,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,220,198 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/24/2017 to 03/16/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Kimball International, Inc. (KBAL)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 135 out of 607
3/16/17 close: $16.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.19 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.61%
Volume: 124,000 shares. 3 month avg: 138,149 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 01/18/2017 to 03/15/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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NuStar GP Holdings (NSH)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 165 out of 607
3/16/17 close: $28.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.13 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.17%
Volume: 30,900 shares. 3 month avg: 115,677 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 02/03/2017 to 03/16/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 463 out of 607
3/16/17 close: $84.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $87.17 or 2.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.32%
Volume: 1,667,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,498,860 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/06/2017 to 03/16/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Praxair Inc. (PX)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 474 out of 607
3/16/17 close: $117.12
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $114.20 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.06%
Volume: 1,551,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,474,423 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/05/2017 to 03/16/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 578 out of 607
3/16/17 close: $81.04
1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $84.28 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -10.27%
Volume: 608,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,761,082 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/10/2017 to 03/16/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Westlake Chemical Corp (WLK)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 54 out of 607
3/16/17 close: $67.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.40 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.91%
Volume: 860,400 shares. 3 month avg: 859,278 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/21/2017 to 03/14/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SPDR Energy Select Sector (XLE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 430 out of 607
3/16/17 close: $70.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.22 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.70%
Volume: 16,028,700 shares. 3 month avg: 12,858,643 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 12/15/2016 to 03/16/2017

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Thursday 3/16/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.7% or 43.23 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 391 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 243 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 148 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 122/215 or 56.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/80 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

There's not much to say about this chart.

I told a friend that after the FED's announcement of an interest rate hike, I expected the market to move up. It's like we've all been waiting for the shoe to drop, and now that it has, we're relieved.

Today's pattern looks like a rounded bottom or even a cup with handle but without the handle or the 30% rise which leads to the cup.

Because price is near or at the top of the chart pattern in those formations, an upward breakout usually happens. Thus, look for a continued move higher.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,558.01    
 Monthly S1  5,729.03  171.02   
 Weekly S2  5,801.06  72.03   
 Monthly Pivot  5,820.41  19.35   
 Daily S2  5,836.76  16.35   
 Weekly S1  5,850.55  13.79   
 Low  5,858.16  7.61   
 Weekly Pivot  5,861.58  3.42   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  5,868.41  6.83   
 Open  5,869.97  1.56   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,878.42  8.45   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,884.68  6.26   
 Daily Pivot  5,889.80  5.12   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,890.94  1.14   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  5,900.05  9.11   
 Weekly R1  5,911.07  11.02   
 High  5,911.20  0.13   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R1  5,921.45  10.25   
 Weekly R2  5,922.10  0.65   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  5,942.84  20.75   
 Monthly R1  5,991.43  48.59   
 Monthly R2  6,082.81  91.38   

Wednesday 3/15/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows that the indicator turned bearish a few days ago. We saw this last week, but the signal was new, so there was a chance of it disappearing.

But it's been on the chart long enough to be stable and valid. It won't go away.

It suggested the market would be weak (drop), and that's what happened.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 21% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 18%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 50% on 03/15/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 512 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 11%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 23% on 03/15/2016.

The red line shows a dramatic decline in the number of stocks I follow in bear market territory. Wow.

The blue line, not so much of a drop (from 12% to 11%).

Both lines suggest weakness, too.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/14/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.1% or -21.5 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1286 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 666 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 620 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 133/223 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/64 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

A head-and-shoulders bottom appears with a left shoulder (LS), head (H), and right shoulder (RS).

It's not a valid head-and-shoulders bottom. Why not?

Because price hasn't closed above the neckline. What does that mean?

The neckline connects two armpits (shown here as blue line A) unless it slopes upward as it does in this case. If you were to try and trade it with an up-sloping neckline, the index might never close above the neckline.

If price does not close above the neckline, then your not looking at a valid head-and-shoulders bottom.

So I use the right armpit and draw a horizontal neckline. A close above this line means (confirmation) a valid chart pattern.

If the chart pattern confirms, look for the index to reach the green circle. That's approximately the height of the pattern from the head low to the blue neckline directly above added to the red line.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  19,518.17    
 Monthly S1  20,199.82  681.66   
 Weekly S2  20,672.42  472.60   
 Monthly Pivot  20,684.47  12.05   
 Weekly S1  20,776.95  92.48   
 Daily S2  20,804.07  27.12   
 Daily S1  20,842.77  38.71   
 Low  20,845.71  2.94   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  20,876.40  30.69   
 Close  20,881.48  5.08   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  20,881.69  0.21   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  20,884.42  2.73   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  20,885.88  1.47   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  20,895.37  9.48   
 Open  20,899.28  3.91   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  20,923.12  23.84   
 High  20,926.06  2.94   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  20,964.77  38.71   
 Weekly R1  20,986.22  21.45   
 Weekly R2  21,090.96  104.74   
 Monthly R1  21,366.12  275.16   
 Monthly R2  21,850.77  484.64   

Monday 3/13/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show a pic of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I looked at the chart and saw what looks like a triple top (quad top, really). That's the four highest peaks on the chart.

If the index closes below blue line B, then it could drop back to near the launch price, A (not all at once, mind you).

A small double top appears at C. This confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below D, which happened.

It suggests the index will go lower.

My guess is a drop to line B is likely in the short term.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 51.37 points.
Tuesday: Down 29.58 points.
Wednesday: Down 69.03 points.
Thursday: Up 2.46 points.
Friday: Up 44.79 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 102.73 points or 0.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 9.02 points or 0.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 10.52 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.3% down from the high of 21,169.11 on 03/01/2017.
     6.2% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     0.8% down from the high of 5,911.79 on 03/01/2017.
     8.6% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     1.2% down from the high of 2,400.98 on 03/01/2017.
     5.7% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  20,778  20,840  20,890  20,953  21,003 
Weekly  20,680  20,791  20,889  21,001  21,098 
Monthly  19,525  20,214  20,692  21,380  21,858 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,357  2,365  2,371  2,379  2,385 
Weekly  2,344  2,358  2,369  2,383  2,393 
Monthly  2,237  2,305  2,353  2,421  2,469 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,819  5,841  5,857  5,878  5,894 
Weekly  5,788  5,825  5,849  5,886  5,909 
Monthly  5,545  5,703  5,808  5,966  6,070 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.8%   The trend may continue. 
 5 months up 15.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.4%   The trend may continue. 
 5 months up 18.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.0%   The trend may continue. 
 5 months up 12.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
21Triangle, symmetrical
8Channel
7Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Rising wedge
5Triangle, descending
4Triple top
4Dead-cat bounce
3Broadening top
3Triangle, ascending
3Pipe top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Securities Brokerage1. Securities Brokerage
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Insurance (Life)
3. Human Resources3. Human Resources
4. Insurance (Life)4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Semiconductor5. Semiconductor
50. Retail Store50. Household Products
51. Retail (Special Lines)51. Retail Store
52. Toiletries/Cosmetics52. Shoe
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Toiletries/Cosmetics
54. Natural Gas (Diversified)54. Natural Gas (Diversified)
55. Short ETFs55. Short ETFs
56. Furn/Home Furnishings56. Furn/Home Furnishings
57. Apparel57. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/10/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 615 stocks searched, or 3.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISChannel      04/29/201603/09/2017Semiconductor
AESTriangle, descending      12/01/201603/06/2017Electric Utility (East)
ALKSBroadening bottom      02/02/201703/09/2017Drug
CGITriangle, symmetrical      12/09/201603/09/2017Trucking/Transp. Leasing
CGNXChannel      01/11/201603/09/2017Precision Instrument
COTYTriangle, symmetrical      02/08/201703/09/2017Toiletries/Cosmetics
DVNChannel      12/08/201603/07/2017Natural Gas (Diversified)
EBAYBroadening top      02/13/201703/06/2017Internet
FFGTriangle, descending      01/24/201703/09/2017Insurance (Life)
IBKRTriangle, ascending      12/12/201603/09/2017Securities Brokerage
JBLUBroadening bottom      02/10/201703/09/2017Air Transport
LXUBroadening wedge, ascending      01/26/201703/09/2017Building Materials
MCOTriangle, symmetrical      02/22/201703/09/2017Information Services
NCSRectangle bottom      12/13/201603/09/2017Building Materials
REVPipe top      02/21/201702/27/2017Toiletries/Cosmetics
SAIABroadening top      02/13/201703/03/2017Trucking/Transp. Leasing
TLRDDead-cat bounce      03/09/201703/09/2017Retail (Special Lines)
TDCTriangle, symmetrical      02/16/201703/09/2017Computer Software and Svcs
UPSTriangle, symmetrical      02/01/201703/09/2017Air Transport
XLNXTriangle, symmetrical      02/22/201703/09/2017Semiconductor Cap Equip.
YHOOTriangle, symmetrical      02/15/201703/09/2017Internet
SOXXTriangle, symmetrical      02/22/201703/09/2017Semiconductor
UNGPipe bottom      02/21/201702/27/2017Natural Gas (Diversified)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/02/2017 and 03/09/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 32 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $63.06
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.94 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.18%
Volume: 255,000 shares. 3 month avg: 367,066 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 03/09/2017

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AES Corp (AES)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 552 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $11.06
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.73 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.82%
Volume: 5,146,200 shares. 3 month avg: 5,501,366 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 12/01/2016 to 03/06/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Alkermes (ALKS)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 116 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $57.08
1 Month avg volatility: $2.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.95 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.70%
Volume: 868,800 shares. 3 month avg: 858,192 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 02/02/2017 to 03/09/2017
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Celadon Group Inc. (CGI)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 466 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $8.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.16 or 14.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.48%
Volume: 369,500 shares. 3 month avg: 439,885 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/09/2016 to 03/09/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cognex (CGNX)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 9 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $79.55
1 Month avg volatility: $1.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $76.01 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.04%
Volume: 401,200 shares. 3 month avg: 607,091 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/11/2016 to 03/09/2017

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Coty (COTY)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 585 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $18.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.48 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.08%
Volume: 1,952,300 shares. 3 month avg: 6,071,020 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/08/2017 to 03/09/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Devon Energy Corp. (DVN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 507 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $40.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.88 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.73%
Volume: 8,696,700 shares. 3 month avg: 4,300,662 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 12/08/2016 to 03/07/2017

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eBay, Inc. (EBAY)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 368 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $33.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.40 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.75%
Volume: 5,545,400 shares. 3 month avg: 10,095,094 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 02/13/2017 to 03/06/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 346 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $67.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $71.86 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.05%
Volume: 27,200 shares. 3 month avg: 26,522 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 01/24/2017 to 03/09/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 326 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $36.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.48 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.79%
Volume: 419,600 shares. 3 month avg: 464,283 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 12/12/2016 to 03/09/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 176 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $19.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.02 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.90%
Volume: 7,583,600 shares. 3 month avg: 6,876,266 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 02/10/2017 to 03/09/2017
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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LSB Industries Inc (LXU)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 556 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $9.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.84 or 17.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.98%
Volume: 288,600 shares. 3 month avg: 529,732 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 01/26/2017 to 03/09/2017
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Moodys Corp (MCO)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 366 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $112.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $109.36 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.32%
Volume: 863,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,096,246 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/22/2017 to 03/09/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 278 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $16.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.24 or 7.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.24%
Volume: 548,000 shares. 3 month avg: 398,032 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 12/13/2016 to 03/09/2017
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Revlon Inc (REV)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 573 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $28.60
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.23 or 12.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.89%
Volume: 108,100 shares. 3 month avg: 95,875 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/21/2017 to 02/27/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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SAIA Inc (SAIA)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 19 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $45.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.25. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.09 or 9.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.93%
Volume: 119,700 shares. 3 month avg: 222,674 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 02/13/2017 to 03/03/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 208 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $15.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.04 or 20.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -38.00%
Volume: 15,951,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,895,758 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/09/2017 to 03/09/2017
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Teradata Corp (TDC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 410 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $31.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.63 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.50%
Volume: 1,016,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,556,288 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/16/2017 to 03/09/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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United Parcel Service (UPS)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 460 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $105.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $103.42 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.62%
Volume: 2,301,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,104,900 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/01/2017 to 03/09/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Xilinx Inc (XLNX)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 234 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $58.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.89 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.43%
Volume: 1,823,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,692,123 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/22/2017 to 03/09/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 336 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $45.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.45 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.80%
Volume: 3,761,800 shares. 3 month avg: 8,444,340 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/15/2017 to 03/09/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector (SOXX)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 93 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $133.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $128.70 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.38%
Volume: 340,200 shares. 3 month avg: 489,222 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/22/2017 to 03/09/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 518 out of 607
3/9/17 close: $7.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.79 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.02%
Volume: 9,269,700 shares. 3 month avg: 15,687,198 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/21/2017 to 02/27/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 3/9/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.1% or 3.62 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 653 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 364 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 289 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 121/214 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/80 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This is an exciting chart from my perspective. Why? Because it shows how a measured move down chart pattern behaves.

The measured move is the ABCD pattern. The first leg is AB, followed by corrective phase BC, and second leg CD.

Notice how the index retraces back to the corrective phase (move DE rises to BC). That happens frequently, and you can often use that retrace to wait to exit a position.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,439.44    
 Monthly S1  5,638.50  199.05   
 Weekly S2  5,760.95  122.45   
 Monthly Pivot  5,775.14  14.19   
 Weekly S1  5,799.25  24.11   
 Daily S2  5,815.60  16.35   
 Daily S1  5,826.58  10.97   
 Low  5,832.63  6.05   
 Close  5,837.55  4.92   
 Open  5,838.44  0.89   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,843.33  4.89   
 Daily Pivot  5,843.60  0.28   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,846.63  3.03   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,849.93  3.30   
 Daily R1  5,854.58  4.64   
 Weekly Pivot  5,855.52  0.94   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 High  5,860.63  5.11   
 Daily R2  5,871.60  10.97   
 Weekly R1  5,893.82  22.22   
 Weekly R2  5,950.09  56.27   
 Monthly R1  5,974.20  24.11   
 Monthly R2  6,110.84  136.65   

Wednesday 3/8/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator turned bearish in the past week, as the chart shows with the vertical red bar on the far right.

Signals can change for up to a week, so this is not a firm bearish signal. However, it's been my experience that after three trading days without a signal change, it's likely the signal will remain.

The bearish signal occurred four trading days ago.

It suggests we're in a bearish retrace. How long this retrace will last is unknown, however.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 18% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 16%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 50% on 03/08/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 512 stocks in my database are down an average of 11% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 10%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 24% on 03/08/2016.

Both red and blue lines this week show deterioration in the performance of the stocks I follow.

The red line dropped two percentage points from this time a week ago and the blue line dropped one.

Both are more bearish than a week ago, and they agree with the prior CPI chart, too.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/7/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.2% or -51.37 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1171 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 589 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 582 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 133/222 or 59.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/64 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

On the right is a chart with three red horizontal retrace lines drawn.

These are not exact but close enough. The AB move is approximately 400 points. Line C is (less than) 100 points lower, or ~25% of the AB move.

Lines D and E have retraced 50% and 75% of the AB move, respectively.

Several times I have used a 62% Fibonacci retrace to enter a trade and have made money.

However, whenever a stock retraces too far, we have to believe the short-term trend has reversed. That's what I think is happening.

In other words, I expect the market to close lower on Tuesday.

If you want a fundamental reason for a longer term reversal, the FED will probably raise interest rates this month. And that's going to frighten the market. I expect weakness for a month. Why? See the prediction for 2017. The market should bottom in early April if the forecast holds true. But it rarely holds true...

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  19,251.73    
 Monthly S1  20,103.04  851.30   
 Weekly S2  20,571.72  468.68   
 Monthly Pivot  20,636.07  64.35   
 Weekly S1  20,763.03  126.96   
 Daily S2  20,876.64  113.61   
 Low  20,912.11  35.47   
 Daily S1  20,915.49  3.38   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  20,940.50  25.01   
 50% Down from Intraday High  20,949.27  8.77   
 Daily Pivot  20,950.96  1.69   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  20,954.34  3.38   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  20,955.71  1.37   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  20,958.04  2.33   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  20,966.07  8.03   
 High  20,986.43  20.36   
 Daily R1  20,989.81  3.38   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  21,025.28  35.47   
 Weekly R1  21,157.38  132.10   
 Weekly R2  21,360.42  203.04   
 Monthly R1  21,487.38  126.96   
 Monthly R2  22,020.41  533.04   

Monday 3/6/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

The letters highlight a chart pattern called a measured move up.

I've talked about this chart pattern often enough. The idea is that leg CD will equal the length of leg AB. It's rare that it actually does.

However, what's exciting about this pattern is what happens after the pattern completes.

Accord to my book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy, the stock will retrace 36% of the AD move (that's the median retrace). The breakout is upward 85% of the time (meaning a close above the peak at D).

All of this means the index should retrace a bit and the recover to make new highs.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 15.68 points.
Tuesday: Down 25.2 points.
Wednesday: Up 303.31 points.
Thursday: Down 112.58 points.
Friday: Up 2.74 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 183.95 points or 0.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 25.44 points or 0.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 15.78 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.8% down from the high of 21,169.11 on 03/01/2017.
     6.7% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     0.7% down from the high of 5,911.79 on 03/01/2017.
     8.8% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     0.7% down from the high of 2,400.98 on 03/01/2017.
     6.1% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/03/2017, the CPI had:

10 bearish patterns,
6 bullish patterns,
257 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 37.5%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  20,914  20,960  21,000  21,046  21,086 
Weekly  20,589  20,797  20,983  21,192  21,378 
Monthly  19,269  20,137  20,653  21,522  22,038 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,372  2,378  2,381  2,386  2,389 
Weekly  2,339  2,361  2,381  2,403  2,423 
Monthly  2,217  2,300  2,350  2,434  2,484 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,832  5,851  5,861  5,881  5,890 
Weekly  5,772  5,821  5,867  5,916  5,961 
Monthly  5,451  5,661  5,786  5,996  6,122 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 4 weeks up 17.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 5 months up 15.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 6 weeks up 6.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 5 months up 18.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 6 weeks up 6.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 5 months up 12.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
18Triangle, symmetrical
10Channel
8Rising wedge
7Pipe bottom
4Triple top
4Dead-cat bounce
4Triple bottom
4Triangle, ascending
4Head-and-shoulders bottom
3Head-and-shoulders top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Securities Brokerage1. Securities Brokerage
2. Insurance (Life)2. Insurance (Life)
3. Human Resources3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Semiconductor
5. Semiconductor5. Human Resources
50. Household Products50. Biotechnology
51. Retail Store51. Retail Store
52. Shoe52. Shoe
53. Toiletries/Cosmetics53. Toiletries/Cosmetics
54. Natural Gas (Diversified)54. Natural Gas (Diversified)
55. Short ETFs55. Short ETFs
56. Furn/Home Furnishings56. Furn/Home Furnishings
57. Apparel57. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/3/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 25 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 615 stocks searched, or 4.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ANFBig W      01/31/201703/01/2017Apparel
AEISChannel      04/29/201603/02/2017Semiconductor
ALBHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/02/201702/24/2017Chemical (Diversified)
BECNTriangle, symmetrical      01/26/201702/28/2017Retail Building Supply
BBBYBroadening top      02/15/201702/28/2017Retail (Special Lines)
CGITriangle, symmetrical      12/09/201603/02/2017Trucking/Transp. Leasing
CGNXChannel      01/11/201603/02/2017Precision Instrument
COTYTriangle, symmetrical      02/08/201703/02/2017Toiletries/Cosmetics
CCKTriangle, symmetrical      11/30/201603/02/2017Packaging and Container
DVNChannel      12/08/201603/02/2017Natural Gas (Diversified)
DDSBroadening bottom      01/06/201703/02/2017Retail Store
FOEHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      01/19/201702/24/2017Chemical (Specialty)
MGEETriangle, symmetrical      12/13/201603/01/2017Electric Utility (Central)
MSFTTriangle, symmetrical      01/27/201703/02/2017Computer Software and Svcs
NCSRectangle bottom      12/13/201603/02/2017Building Materials
PANWDead-cat bounce      03/01/201703/01/2017Computer Software and Svcs
POLTriangle, ascending      01/26/201703/01/2017Chemical (Specialty)
RLITriangle, descending      01/18/201703/02/2017Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SHLMTriangle, symmetrical      12/21/201603/02/2017Chemical (Specialty)
TLRDRising wedge      01/17/201703/02/2017Retail (Special Lines)
VRSNTriangle, symmetrical      02/14/201702/28/2017Internet
IYMRising wedge      12/12/201603/02/2017Metals and Mining (Div.)
PHORising wedge      12/21/201603/02/2017Investment Co. (Domestic)
IEVRising wedge      01/25/201702/28/2017Investment Co. (Foreign)
USORectangle bottom      01/09/201703/02/2017Petroleum (Producing)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/23/2017 and 03/02/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abercrombie and Fitch Co. (ANF)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 589 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $13.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.30 or 15.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.00%
Volume: 19,990,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,598,268 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Big W reversal pattern from 01/31/2017 to 03/01/2017
Breakout is upward 71% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 32% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 42% of the time.

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Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 39 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $62.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.92 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.01%
Volume: 197,000 shares. 3 month avg: 368,726 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 03/02/2017

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Albemarle Corp. (ALB)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 86 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $103.06
1 Month avg volatility: $2.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $98.05 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.73%
Volume: 2,033,400 shares. 3 month avg: 934,745 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 02/02/2017 to 02/24/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 436 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $46.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.49 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.13%
Volume: 407,400 shares. 3 month avg: 477,158 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/26/2017 to 02/28/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 551 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $40.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $42.75 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.07%
Volume: 2,254,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,487,711 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 02/15/2017 to 02/28/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Celadon Group Inc. (CGI)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 199 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $9.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.75 or 13.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.87%
Volume: 741,700 shares. 3 month avg: 443,074 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/09/2016 to 03/02/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cognex (CGNX)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 12 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $79.29
1 Month avg volatility: $1.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.98 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.63%
Volume: 884,600 shares. 3 month avg: 588,569 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/11/2016 to 03/02/2017

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Coty (COTY)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 596 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $18.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.61 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.18%
Volume: 5,534,600 shares. 3 month avg: 6,317,472 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/08/2017 to 03/02/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Crown Holdings Inc (CCK)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 477 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $53.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.54 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.31%
Volume: 641,800 shares. 3 month avg: 995,574 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/30/2016 to 03/02/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Devon Energy Corp. (DVN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 450 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $43.47
1 Month avg volatility: $1.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.78 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.82%
Volume: 4,379,400 shares. 3 month avg: 4,519,568 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 12/08/2016 to 03/02/2017

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Dilliards Inc (DDS)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 546 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $53.77
1 Month avg volatility: $2.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.69 or 11.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.23%
Volume: 1,412,900 shares. 3 month avg: 778,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 01/06/2017 to 03/02/2017
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Ferro Corp (FOE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 252 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $14.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.35 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.07%
Volume: 1,362,000 shares. 3 month avg: 349,135 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex bottom reversal pattern from 01/19/2017 to 02/24/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 169 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $64.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.89 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.54%
Volume: 48,000 shares. 3 month avg: 109,512 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/13/2016 to 03/01/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 243 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $64.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.58 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.01%
Volume: 24,510,900 shares. 3 month avg: 24,100,571 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/27/2017 to 03/02/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 346 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $16.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.23 or 7.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.24%
Volume: 272,300 shares. 3 month avg: 381,377 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 12/13/2016 to 03/02/2017
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Palto Alto Networks Inc (PANW)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 553 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $116.49
1 Month avg volatility: $4.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $127.03 or 9.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.85%
Volume: 6,725,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,927,266 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/01/2017 to 03/01/2017
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Polyone Corp (POL)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 484 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $33.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.24 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.71%
Volume: 618,800 shares. 3 month avg: 514,149 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 01/26/2017 to 03/01/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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RLI Corp (RLI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 572 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $58.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.06 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.81%
Volume: 161,500 shares. 3 month avg: 196,043 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 01/18/2017 to 03/02/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Schulman, A. (SHLM)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 61 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $34.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.28 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.09%
Volume: 75,700 shares. 3 month avg: 228,660 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/21/2016 to 03/02/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 4 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $23.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.09 or 10.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.71%
Volume: 1,248,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,604,106 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/17/2017 to 03/02/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Verisign (VRSN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 232 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $83.62
1 Month avg volatility: $1.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $79.51 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.93%
Volume: 674,100 shares. 3 month avg: 887,189 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/14/2017 to 02/28/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ US Basic Materials sector index fnd (IYM)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 246 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $88.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $91.75 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.93%
Volume: 177,400 shares. 3 month avg: 297,428 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 12/12/2016 to 03/02/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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PowerShares Water Resources (PHO)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 313 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $26.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.83 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.10%
Volume: 44,900 shares. 3 month avg: 57,637 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 12/21/2016 to 03/02/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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S and P Europe 350 Index fund (IEV)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 409 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $40.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $40.94 or 1.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.15%
Volume: 701,400 shares. 3 month avg: 896,468 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/25/2017 to 02/28/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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United States Oil (USO)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 301 out of 607
3/2/17 close: $11.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.60 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.69%
Volume: 21,135,000 shares. 3 month avg: 26,977,786 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 01/09/2017 to 03/02/2017
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Thursday 3/2/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.3% or 78.59 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 139 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 89 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 50 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 64.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 121/213 or 56.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/80 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index climbed today after gapping higher at the open and curling over (A).

That curling reminds me of an inverted and ascending scallop.

If that pattern unfolds tomorrow, you should see the index retrace a portion (55%) of today's move higher.

$ $ $

I received an email from a relative. It said, "Dow over 21,000, when do you go to all cash to avoid the inevitable drop?"

I told her to wait for the Dow to drop 20% down from the high. When that occurs, it's a bear market. Sell.

Her response: "When I sell at 20% down, the market recoups and meets new highs. I want to avoid the 20% dip, perfect timing, how hard can that be?"

My answer: If the market is going to drop by 20%, sell it before it does.

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,419.67    
 Monthly S1  5,661.85  242.18   
 Monthly Pivot  5,764.87  103.02   
 Weekly S2  5,790.15  25.28   
 Weekly S1  5,847.09  56.94   
 Daily S2  5,847.87  0.78   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Weekly Pivot  5,857.49  9.62   
 Low  5,865.79  8.30   
 Open  5,874.86  9.07   
 Daily S1  5,875.95  1.09   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,883.36  7.41   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,888.79  5.43   
 Daily Pivot  5,893.87  5.08   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,894.22  0.35   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  5,904.03  9.81   
 High  5,911.79  7.76   
 Weekly R1  5,914.43  2.64   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R1  5,921.95  7.52   
 Weekly R2  5,924.83  2.88   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  5,939.87  15.04   
 Monthly R1  6,007.05  67.18   
 Monthly R2  6,110.07  103.02   

Wednesday 3/1/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator shows bearish divergence as the two red trendlines on the right of the chart illustrate.

However, pre-market the Dow futures are up 180 points, so I expect a big opening and probably a much higher close. And that will make the bearish divergence disappear, I think.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 16% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 16%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 55% on 02/29/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 512 stocks in my database are down an average of 10% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 10%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 26% on 02/29/2016.

From a week ago, the two lines show no change.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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