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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 04/28/2017
20,941 -40.82 -0.2%
9,098 -96.36 -1.0%
704 -3.23 -0.5%
6,048 -1.33 0.0%
2,384 -4.57 -0.2%
YTD
6.0%
0.6%
6.8%
12.3%
6.5%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 04/17/2017
20,100 or 21,150 by 05/01/2017
8,500 or 9,500 by 05/01/2017
725 or 685 by 05/01/2017
6,150 or 5,900 by 05/15/2017
2,275 or 2,425 by 05/01/2017
Mutt Winners: None YTD

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March 2015 Headlines


Archives


Tuesday 3/31/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 1.5% or 263.65 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 151 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 78 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 73 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 90/148 or 60.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/43 or 53.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

Notice that the big move on Monday happened in the opening 5 minutes and price coasted higher for about the first half hour. Then the index went nowhere (A).

Compare the large move up and flat move (A) with B. At B, the index zipped up, peaked, and then retraced, but over two days. After that, the index moved higher before rounding over a week ago and heading back down.

I expect the index to do the same this time. The above probabilities suggest a higher close on Tuesday. My thinking is that we'll get a retrace at the opening bell and that may take the index down far enough that it can't recover. But I do expect a recovery if not tomorrow, then the next day.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,238.71    
 Weekly S2  17,293.84  55.13   
 Monthly S1  17,607.51  313.67   
 Daily S2  17,622.98  15.47   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S1  17,635.08  12.09   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  17,727.48  92.40   
 Open  17,727.48  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  17,799.65  72.17   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,834.88  35.24   
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,868.06  33.18   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,901.24  33.18   
 Daily Pivot  17,904.14  2.91   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  17,920.50  16.36   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Monthly Pivot  17,948.07  27.57   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  17,976.31  28.24   
 High  18,008.64  32.33   
 Daily R1  18,080.81  72.17   
 Daily R2  18,185.30  104.50   
 Weekly R1  18,261.74  76.43   
 Monthly R1  18,316.87  55.13   
 Weekly R2  18,547.16  230.29   
 Monthly R2  18,657.43  110.27   

Monday 3/30/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I don't see much here to discuss, really.

The index formed a potential double top at AB. This has not confirmed as a valid chart pattern because the index has not closed below valley C.

You could make a case that peak A, combined with peaks A and C, form a head-and-shoulders top, but the pattern lacks symmetry across the head, A. (That is, the left shoulder, D, is too far away from the head, A).

In short, it doesn't look like a head-and-shoulders top.

Since the indices have been dropping for most of the week, I think it's time for a rebound, so that's what I expect this week.

Maybe what will happen is that peak D will be reflected across peaks AB, forming a complex head-and-shoulders top. That happening is months away.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 11.61 points.
Tuesday: Down 104.9 points.
Wednesday: Down 292.6 points.
Thursday: Down 40.31 points.
Friday: Up 34.43 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 414.99 points or 2.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 135.2 points or 2.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 47.08 points or 2.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.1% down from the high of 18,288.63 on 03/02/2015.
     4.0% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     3.0% down from the high of 5,042.14 on 03/20/2015.
     7.2% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     2.8% down from the high of 2,119.59 on 02/25/2015.
     4.0% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Personal income & consumption8:30 MC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 MC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 TBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
Construction spending10:00 WDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Auto & truck sales5:00 WC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Trade balance8:30 ThC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
Factory orders10:00 ThD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/27/2015, the CPI had:

13 bearish patterns,
8 bullish patterns,
309 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 38.1%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,592  17,652  17,691  17,751  17,789 
Weekly  17,206  17,459  17,833  18,086  18,459 
Monthly  17,151  17,432  17,860  18,141  18,570 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,049  2,055  2,059  2,065  2,069 
Weekly  2,004  2,033  2,074  2,102  2,143 
Monthly  1,994  2,027  2,073  2,107  2,153 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,844  4,868  4,883  4,907  4,923 
Weekly  4,710  4,801  4,917  5,007  5,123 
Monthly  4,704  4,797  4,920  5,014  5,136 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.8%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 19.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.2%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 20.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 29.6%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 26.1%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bullish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
22Scallop, ascending and inverted
13Triangle, symmetrical
12Pipe bottom
9Pipe top
6Double Top, Adam and Adam
5Broadening top
5Triangle, ascending
4Triple top
4Rectangle top
4Triangle, descending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Human Resources1. Retail Building Supply
2. Retail Building Supply2. Human Resources
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Biotechnology
4. Drug4. Drug
5. Biotechnology5. Furn/Home Furnishings
50. Petroleum (Integrated)50. Short ETFs
51. Short ETFs51. Petroleum (Integrated)
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/27/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 21 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 591 stocks searched, or 3.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 9 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 8 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABAXChannel      02/11/201503/26/2015Medical Supplies
ARWRHead-and-shoulders top      02/24/201503/20/2015Biotechnology
ASNARising wedge      01/09/201503/26/2015Apparel
BCPCScallop, descending      02/26/201503/26/2015Chemical (Specialty)
^DJTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/25/201503/20/2015None
ELNKRectangle top      12/22/201403/26/2015Internet
EQTPipe bottom      03/09/201503/16/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
FOETriangle, descending      03/11/201503/26/2015Chemical (Specialty)
GILDTriangle, symmetrical      01/05/201503/25/2015Biotechnology
HPPipe bottom      03/09/201503/16/2015Petroleum (Producing)
HGGPipe bottom      03/09/201503/16/2015Retail (Special Lines)
HUBGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/02/201503/20/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HSONTriangle, descending      03/04/201503/26/2015Human Resources
ILMNDouble Top, Eve and Adam      02/20/201503/20/2015Biotechnology
KLICTriple top      02/10/201503/23/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LXKPipe bottom      03/09/201503/16/2015Computers and Peripherals
MASBroadening top, right-angled and descending      02/24/201503/26/2015Building Materials
NBRPipe bottom      03/09/201503/16/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PTENPipe bottom      03/09/201503/16/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SONSDead-cat bounce      03/24/201503/24/2015Telecom. Equipment
SEPipe bottom      03/09/201503/16/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TERTriple top      02/24/201503/23/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TXNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/02/201503/20/2015Semiconductor
TJXRising wedge      01/08/201503/24/2015Retail Store
WMBPipe bottom      03/09/201503/16/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
WWWScallop, ascending      03/02/201503/25/2015Shoe
SOXXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/02/201503/20/2015Semiconductor
SMHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/02/201503/20/2015Semiconductor
ECHPipe bottom      03/09/201503/16/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
PJPTrend line up      03/10/201503/20/2015Drug

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/19/2015 and 03/26/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abaxis Inc (ABAX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 86 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $64.23
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.67 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.02%
Volume: 157,700 shares. 3 month avg: 202,965 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 02/11/2015 to 03/26/2015

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Arrowhead Research Corp (ARWR)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 580 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $6.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.73 or 14.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.67%
Volume: 1,451,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,218,388 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 02/24/2015 to 03/20/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/12/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/13/2015 and a 38% chance by 07/13/2015.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 345 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $13.64
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.78 or 8.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.60%
Volume: 1,044,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,729,455 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/09/2015 to 03/26/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Balchem Corp (BCPC)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 370 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $56.89
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.10 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.63%
Volume: 147,800 shares. 3 month avg: 179,340 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, descending continuation pattern from 02/26/2015 to 03/26/2015
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 15%.
Pullbacks occur 55% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 30% of the time.

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DJ 20 Transportation (^DJT)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
3/26/15 close: $8,677.84
1 Month avg volatility: $101.98. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8,929.02 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.06%
Volume: 16,637,100 shares. 3 month avg: 13,962,898 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/25/2015 to 03/20/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Earthlink, Inc (ELNK)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 74 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $4.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.07 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.28%
Volume: 579,300 shares. 3 month avg: 745,486 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/22/2014 to 03/26/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Equitable Resources, Inc (EQT)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 476 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $79.93
1 Month avg volatility: $1.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $75.74 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.59%
Volume: 874,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,485,426 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2015 to 03/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Ferro Corp (FOE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 503 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $12.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.04 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.48%
Volume: 418,600 shares. 3 month avg: 417,988 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/11/2015 to 03/26/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 423 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $101.08
1 Month avg volatility: $1.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $94.73 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.23%
Volume: 10,919,000 shares. 3 month avg: 15,742,514 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/05/2015 to 03/25/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Helmerich and Payne Inc. (HP)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 547 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $69.11
1 Month avg volatility: $2.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.30 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.51%
Volume: 2,083,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,648,766 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2015 to 03/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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hhgregg, Inc (HGG)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 347 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $6.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.47 or 10.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.89%
Volume: 73,900 shares. 3 month avg: 244,518 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2015 to 03/16/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/06/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/07/2015 and a 38% chance by 07/07/2015.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Hub Group Inc. (HUBG)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 386 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $38.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $40.57 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.28%
Volume: 145,000 shares. 3 month avg: 282,377 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/02/2015 to 03/20/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Hudson Global (HSON)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 543 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $2.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.03 or 14.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.38%
Volume: 32,900 shares. 3 month avg: 37,654 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/04/2015 to 03/26/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Illumina Inc (ILMN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 226 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $184.37
1 Month avg volatility: $5.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $197.33 or 7.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.11%
Volume: 1,146,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,189,508 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 02/20/2015 to 03/20/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 263 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $15.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.21 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.95%
Volume: 1,074,700 shares. 3 month avg: 446,657 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 02/10/2015 to 03/23/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Lexmark International Inc. (LXK)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 371 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $43.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.75 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.70%
Volume: 1,225,600 shares. 3 month avg: 978,635 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2015 to 03/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Masco Corp. (MAS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 221 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $25.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.76 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.58%
Volume: 2,955,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,537,874 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 02/24/2015 to 03/26/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Nabors Industries, Ltd. (NBR)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 568 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $13.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.09 or 11.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.01%
Volume: 10,332,000 shares. 3 month avg: 11,271,011 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2015 to 03/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. (PTEN)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 569 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $19.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.20 or 9.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.10%
Volume: 4,921,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,610,345 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2015 to 03/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Sonus Networks, Inc. (SONS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 579 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $8.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.89 or 14.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -59.29%
Volume: 2,394,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,513,840 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 03/24/2015 to 03/24/2015

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Spectra Energy Corp (SE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 438 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $35.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.73 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.88%
Volume: 3,811,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,145,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2015 to 03/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Teradyne Inc. (TER)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 427 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $18.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.50 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.87%
Volume: 2,107,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,641,908 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 02/24/2015 to 03/23/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 157 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $55.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.26 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.37%
Volume: 6,830,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,296,469 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/02/2015 to 03/20/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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TJX Companies Inc (TJX)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 156 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $69.02
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $71.53 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.64%
Volume: 4,421,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,258,951 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/08/2015 to 03/24/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Williams Companies Inc. (WMB)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 471 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $49.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.05 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.61%
Volume: 5,129,800 shares. 3 month avg: 7,452,669 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2015 to 03/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Wolverine World Wide (WWW)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 65 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $31.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.35 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.25%
Volume: 899,900 shares. 3 month avg: 711,069 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 03/02/2015 to 03/25/2015
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector (SOXX)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 310 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $91.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $94.59 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.71%
Volume: 473,500 shares. 3 month avg: 246,708 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/02/2015 to 03/20/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Market Vectors Semiconductor (SMH)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 308 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $53.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.74 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.74%
Volume: 11,836,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,167,958 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/02/2015 to 03/20/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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MSCI Chile Investable Mkt Idx (ECH)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 431 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $39.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.56 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.65%
Volume: 248,600 shares. 3 month avg: 215,795 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2015 to 03/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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PowerShares Dynamic Pharmaceuticals (PJP)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 121 out of 583
3/26/15 close: $76.39
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $73.00 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.82%
Volume: 403,600 shares. 3 month avg: 208,360 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Trend line up from 03/10/2015 to 03/20/2015

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Thursday 3/26/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -2.4% or -118.21 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 29 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.3% on 18 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 11 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 83/138 or 60.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/58 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I can't say much about what happened today. The chart tells the tale, really. The Nasdaq just dropped in a nice run down.

The above probabilities suggest that tomorrow we'll see a higher close. I'm not so sure. It looks like the index broke through support at 4900. It would make sense that you'd see a snap-back rally, and that has happened often enough (where the next day we get a triple digit rise in the Dow). But we could just as easily continue down if the market is spooked by the possibility of a weakening economy.

Take your pick.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,721.15    
 Weekly S2  4,782.87  61.72   
 Daily S2  4,789.69  6.83   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Monthly S1  4,798.83  9.14   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Weekly S1  4,829.69  30.86   
 Daily S1  4,833.11  3.41   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Close  4,876.52  43.41   
 Low  4,876.52  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  4,919.93  43.41   
 Monthly Pivot  4,920.49  0.55   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,926.27  5.78   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  4,935.92  9.65   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,941.64  5.72   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,957.01  15.37   
 Daily R1  4,963.35  6.34   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  4,982.74  19.40   
 Monthly R1  4,998.17  15.43   
 Open  5,002.86  4.69   Yes! The Open is close to the Monthly R1.
 High  5,006.76  3.90   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  5,050.17  43.41   
 Weekly R2  5,088.97  38.79   
 Monthly R2  5,119.83  30.86   

Wednesday 3/25/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

As you can see in this figure of the CPI, it has formed an unconfirmed double top. The two peaks in February and March give it away. What does this mean?

The indicator will drop, of course, and it's already begun. But is that a cause for concern? I don't think so. In fact, based on my recent stock purchases, I'm betting it's not.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The indicator is bullish as the green bars show. I think today's move down is just traders reacting to the latest news, and not the start of a new downtrend.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/24/15. Dow: Ascending Triangle

The index dropped by -0.1% or -11.61 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1250 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 650 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 600 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 90/147 or 61.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/43 or 53.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The trend has moved upward for over a week now, as the blue line indicates. Maybe that's a turquoise line.

An ascending triangle I show highlighted in red. The index broke out downward from this triangle, suggesting a bearish turn. The index closes near the low for the day, too. I see support just below 18,000, so it doesn't look good for a rebound. But if the index does rebound, then maybe it'll hit that turquoise line.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,340.25    
 Weekly S2  17,503.85  163.60   
 Monthly S1  17,728.14  224.29   
 Weekly S1  17,809.94  81.80   
 Weekly Pivot  18,003.62  193.67   
 Monthly Pivot  18,008.39  4.77   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S2  18,056.11  47.73   
 Daily S1  18,086.08  29.96   
 Close  18,116.04  29.96   
 Low  18,116.04  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Close.
 Open  18,136.73  20.69   
 Daily Pivot  18,146.00  9.27   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,150.38  4.38   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,160.98  10.61   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,171.59  10.61   
 Daily R1  18,175.97  4.38   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  18,205.93  29.96   
 Daily R2  18,235.89  29.96   
 Weekly R1  18,309.71  73.82   
 Monthly R1  18,396.28  86.57   
 Weekly R2  18,503.39  107.10   
 Monthly R2  18,676.53  173.14   

Monday 3/23/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I drew two red lines, outlining the tops and bottoms of the recent trading range. And that's what it is: a trading range.

Which direction will it break out?

If you consider that the other indices are making new highs or are close to doing so, it seems clear that the breakout will be upward from the transports. That's a guess, but I think it's sound.

A rising tide lifts all boats, so I think the index will respond to a rising general market.

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of my dog.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 228.11 points.
Tuesday: Down 128.34 points.
Wednesday: Up 227.11 points.
Thursday: Down 117.16 points.
Friday: Up 168.62 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 378.34 points or 2.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 154.66 points or 3.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 54.7 points or 2.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.9% down from the high of 18,288.63 on 03/02/2015.
     6.4% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     0.3% down from the high of 5,042.14 on 03/20/2015.
     10.2% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     0.5% down from the high of 2,119.59 on 02/25/2015.
     6.4% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Existing home sales10:00 MCCounts sales of used homes.
Consumer price index8:30 TB+Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services.
New home sales10:00 TC+Shows sales of single-family homes.
Durable goods orders8:30 WBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Gross domestic product8:30 FBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Michigan sentiment10:00 FB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/20/2015, the CPI had:

4 bearish patterns,
61 bullish patterns,
231 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 93.8%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,859  17,993  18,095  18,230  18,332 
Weekly  17,508  17,818  18,007  18,317  18,507 
Monthly  17,344  17,736  18,012  18,404  18,680 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,081  2,094  2,104  2,118  2,128 
Weekly  2,034  2,071  2,092  2,130  2,151 
Monthly  2,009  2,059  2,089  2,139  2,169 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,008  5,017  5,030  5,039  5,051 
Weekly  4,833  4,930  4,986  5,083  5,139 
Monthly  4,771  4,899  4,970  5,098  5,170 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 43.5%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 19.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 42.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 45.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 39.6%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bullish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
21Scallop, ascending and inverted
16Triangle, symmetrical
11Flag
8Head-and-shoulders top
7Triangle, ascending
7Pipe top
5Broadening top
4Rectangle top
3Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
3Channel

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Retail Building Supply1. Retail Building Supply
2. Human Resources2. Human Resources
3. Biotechnology3. Drug
4. Drug4. Biotechnology
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. Furn/Home Furnishings
50. Short ETFs50. Metals and Mining (Div.)
51. Petroleum (Integrated)51. Petroleum (Integrated)
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Saturday 3/21/15. Moving Averages, Reversals and Continuations

Sunrise on 3/15

I wanted to discover if a moving average of the general market or the stock could help improve my trading success. I think the answer is no, they won't, but the research does reveal important clues.

The following is part of what I found, from the summary.

Test 1: Market reversals from down to up led to more winning trades than trend continuations.

Test 2: Regardless of which moving average was used, the general market trending lower into a stock buy led to more winning trades.

Read the full article here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/20/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 27 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 591 stocks searched, or 4.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 18 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABAXChannel      02/11/201503/19/2015Medical Supplies
AYIScallop, ascending      02/18/201503/18/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
ARGTriangle, ascending      11/21/201403/19/2015Chemical (Specialty)
ASNARising wedge      01/09/201503/19/2015Apparel
BBBYTriangle, symmetrical      01/08/201503/19/2015Retail (Special Lines)
CHSTriangle, symmetrical      02/13/201503/19/2015Apparel
DOVBroadening bottom      03/09/201503/19/2015Machinery
ELNKRectangle top      12/22/201403/19/2015Internet
EIXBroadening top, right-angled and descending      02/09/201503/19/2015Electric Utility (West)
GPSTriangle, symmetrical      02/24/201503/17/2015Apparel
GISDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/11/201503/18/2015Food Processing
GILDTriangle, symmetrical      01/05/201503/19/2015Biotechnology
KMTScallop, ascending and inverted      01/29/201503/13/2015Metal Fabricating
KLICRectangle top      02/11/201503/19/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LBRectangle top      02/18/201503/18/2015Apparel
MASBroadening wedge, descending      02/24/201503/18/2015Building Materials
MLIBroadening top      02/17/201503/18/2015Metal Fabricating
NEEPipe bottom      03/02/201503/09/2015Electric Utility (East)
PREBroadening wedge, descending      02/25/201503/19/2015Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
PDCOChannel      02/02/201503/19/2015Medical Supplies
QLGCTriangle, descending      02/25/201503/19/2015Semiconductor
RYLRoof      02/12/201503/17/2015Homebuilding
SODAHorn bottom      02/23/201503/09/2015Food Processing
SWXPipe bottom      03/02/201503/09/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
WGLPipe bottom      03/02/201503/09/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
IYHBroadening top      02/24/201503/16/2015Long ETFs
THDScallop, ascending and inverted      01/05/201503/16/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWUScallop, ascending and inverted      01/14/201503/13/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
IXNScallop, ascending and inverted      02/02/201503/13/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
XLKScallop, ascending and inverted      02/02/201503/13/2015Investment Co. (Domestic)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/12/2015 and 03/19/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abaxis Inc (ABAX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 83 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $64.28
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.35 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.11%
Volume: 91,700 shares. 3 month avg: 203,658 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 02/11/2015 to 03/19/2015

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Acuity Brands, Inc (AYI)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 46 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $165.85
1 Month avg volatility: $2.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $158.62 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.41%
Volume: 209,800 shares. 3 month avg: 341,262 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 02/18/2015 to 03/18/2015
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Airgas, Inc (ARG)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 328 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $113.01
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $109.57 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.88%
Volume: 650,000 shares. 3 month avg: 405,475 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 11/21/2014 to 03/19/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 497 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $13.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.79 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.15%
Volume: 1,407,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,756,691 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/09/2015 to 03/19/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 137 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $75.61
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.79 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.74%
Volume: 1,336,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,441,560 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/08/2015 to 03/19/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Chicos FAS Inc. (CHS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 126 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $18.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.21 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.84%
Volume: 2,795,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,297,272 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/13/2015 to 03/19/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dover Corp (DOV)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 484 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $71.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $67.85 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.81%
Volume: 1,279,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,039,509 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2015 to 03/19/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Earthlink, Inc (ELNK)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 122 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $4.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.12 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.42%
Volume: 280,700 shares. 3 month avg: 757,277 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/22/2014 to 03/19/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Edison International (EIX)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 203 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $64.81
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.13 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.02%
Volume: 2,276,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,160,722 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 02/09/2015 to 03/19/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Gap Inc. (GPS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 370 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $42.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.60 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.57%
Volume: 5,152,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,915,694 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/24/2015 to 03/17/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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General Mills Inc (GIS)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 317 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $52.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.28 or 2.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.48%
Volume: 2,492,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,025,058 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/11/2015 to 03/18/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 371 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $101.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $96.62 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.62%
Volume: 9,213,800 shares. 3 month avg: 15,671,951 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/05/2015 to 03/19/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Kennametal (KMT)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 524 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $33.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.33 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.21%
Volume: 267,000 shares. 3 month avg: 894,942 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 01/29/2015 to 03/13/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 217 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $16.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.30 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.31%
Volume: 266,000 shares. 3 month avg: 441,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/11/2015 to 03/19/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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L Brands, Inc. (LB)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 22 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $93.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $88.53 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.57%
Volume: 1,347,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,723,632 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/18/2015 to 03/18/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Masco Corp. (MAS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 264 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $26.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.09 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.25%
Volume: 2,488,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,651,542 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 02/24/2015 to 03/18/2015
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Mueller Industries Inc. (MLI)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 120 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $35.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.77 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.84%
Volume: 78,200 shares. 3 month avg: 181,658 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 02/17/2015 to 03/18/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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NextEra Energy Inc (NEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 218 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $105.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $101.14 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.76%
Volume: 2,847,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,284,912 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/02/2015 to 03/09/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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PartnerRe Ltd (PRE)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 341 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $112.99
1 Month avg volatility: $1.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $109.33 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.00%
Volume: 355,900 shares. 3 month avg: 486,282 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 02/25/2015 to 03/19/2015
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Patterson Companies Inc. (PDCO)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 82 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $49.82
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.01 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.58%
Volume: 456,200 shares. 3 month avg: 808,048 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 02/02/2015 to 03/19/2015

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QLogic Corp (QLGC)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 11 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $14.73
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.52 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.59%
Volume: 925,900 shares. 3 month avg: 988,515 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/25/2015 to 03/19/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Ryland Group, Inc (RYL)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 85 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $46.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.07 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 20.44%
Volume: 1,691,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,036,894 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof reversal pattern from 02/12/2015 to 03/17/2015
Breakout is downward 84% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 68% of the time.

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SodaStream International Ltd (SODA)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 557 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $19.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.80 or 9.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.09%
Volume: 642,700 shares. 3 month avg: 584,478 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 02/23/2015 to 03/09/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/07/2014. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/07/2015.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Southwest Gas Corp. (SWX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 196 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $57.05
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.20 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.70%
Volume: 230,000 shares. 3 month avg: 195,332 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/02/2015 to 03/09/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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WGL Holdings (WGL)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 64 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $55.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.80 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.46%
Volume: 329,100 shares. 3 month avg: 349,378 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/02/2015 to 03/09/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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iShares DJ US Healthcare (IYH)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 139 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $158.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $161.81 or 2.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.99%
Volume: 154,400 shares. 3 month avg: 263,772 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 02/24/2015 to 03/16/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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MSCI Thailand Invest Mkt Index (THD)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 390 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $79.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $77.33 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.65%
Volume: 232,600 shares. 3 month avg: 275,358 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 01/05/2015 to 03/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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MSCI United Kingdom Index (EWU)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 426 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $18.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.00 or 2.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.00%
Volume: 10,743,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,707,642 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 01/14/2015 to 03/13/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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S and P Global Tech Sector Index fund (IXN)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 285 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $98.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $96.46 or 2.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.86%
Volume: 22,700 shares. 3 month avg: 39,483 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 02/02/2015 to 03/13/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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SPDR Technology Select Sector (XLK)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 299 out of 583
3/19/15 close: $42.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.60 or 2.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.64%
Volume: 8,992,400 shares. 3 month avg: 8,892,974 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 02/02/2015 to 03/13/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Thursday 3/19/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.9% or 45.4 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 261 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 173 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 88 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 66.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 82/137 or 59.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/58 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At B, I show an ascending broadening wedge, highlighted by the two red lines. The upward tilt is slight on the bottom trendline, but still visible.

At A the FOMC announced their rate decision and the market shot upward. Why? Because they liked what the FED said, that interest rates would remain low until inflation and the job market heat up. Or until they change their minds, whichever comes first.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,614.71    
 Monthly S1  4,798.77  184.06   
 Weekly S2  4,817.70  18.93   
 Daily S2  4,870.19  52.49   
 Weekly S1  4,900.26  30.07   
 Monthly Pivot  4,903.67  3.41   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  4,907.72  4.05   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  4,925.37  17.65   
 Daily S1  4,926.51  1.14   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  4,926.83  0.32   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,943.57  16.74   
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,954.65  11.07   
 Daily Pivot  4,964.04  9.40   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,965.72  1.68   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  4,982.83  17.11   
 High  5,001.57  18.74   
 Weekly R1  5,007.93  6.36   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R1  5,020.36  12.43   
 Weekly R2  5,033.04  12.68   
 Daily R2  5,057.89  24.85   
 Monthly R1  5,087.73  29.84   
 Monthly R2  5,192.63  104.90   

Wednesday 3/18/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I flipped the direction on Tom's Targets (see the grid at page top), thinking that the indices had reversed and were now headed higher. After looking at this chart, I'm not so sure.

The indicator was bullish but flipped to neutral. That could signal a measured move down pattern. In other words, the index could be pausing here at the corrective phase, getting ready for another move down.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

This chart shows the signal is neutral.

$ $ $

I fully intended to work today but I wanted to visit Home Depot because I saw a plant I wanted to buy. It's a Mexican Feather bush or something like that.

I went down there and after looking around, returned home with 11 perennials. With rain expected off and on the rest of the week, I needed to get them into the ground. That took about 3 hours.

I transplanted two bushes, moved a load of dirt, and dug my 11 holes after scraping away mulch and weed preventer fabric. I did all of this after an exhausting bike ride where I beat yesterday's time by about 30 seconds.

When I was done, I sat on my porch with a glass of red wine and enjoyed the view. Life doesn't get much better than this, for me anyway.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/17/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 1.3% or 228.11 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 240 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 132 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 108 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 90/146 or 61.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/43 or 53.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The chart shows 5 days worth of trading. I chose this scale to highlight the double bottom. That occurs at AB and it confirms when the index closes above the price of peak C.

This suggests the index will move higher. The chart pattern indicator has turned bullish today, too (Monday). The signal might change tomorrow, but for today, it looks good.

I drew in the red line to show how the peaks line up. It's just interesting.

$ $ $

I blew off today because it was so nice here (70s, sunny). Spent some money buying a tiller for the garden and used it to till the soil. Then I moved two firebush plants to contrast with my green arborvitae. When the roof cooled, I climbed up on it to fix a missing shingle tab. I do that whenever it occurs, which is quite often given that the roof is 29 years old.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,294.04    
 Weekly S2  17,465.77  171.73   
 Monthly S1  17,635.73  169.96   
 Daily S2  17,668.46  32.73   
 Weekly S1  17,721.59  53.13   
 Low  17,751.24  29.65   
 Open  17,751.24  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  17,822.94  71.70   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,841.87  18.93   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,869.87  28.00   
 Weekly Pivot  17,876.32  6.45   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,897.87  21.55   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  17,905.72  7.85   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  17,962.18  56.46   
 Close  17,977.42  15.24   Yes! The Close is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 High  17,988.50  11.08   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  18,060.20  71.70   
 Weekly R1  18,132.14  71.94   
 Daily R2  18,142.98  10.84   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  18,286.87  143.89   
 Monthly R1  18,303.87  17.00   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  18,630.32  326.45   

Monday 3/16/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I think I have it figured out. For about a month now, I've wondered why the Dow utility index was falling.

I show the index on the monthly scale in the chart on the right.

For years now, the index has trended higher, as the red line shows. Last year, the index gained 26% compared to the 13.4% of the Nasdaq and 7.5% rise in the Dow industrials.

This year, the index has been struggling. It's still in the channel and perhaps it will remain there.

What is driving the index lower? My guess is the fear of rising interest rates. One analyst said that rates could rise as early as June this year or as late as September. A rise will crimp the utilities borrowing, and that has some worried.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 138.94 points.
Tuesday: Down 332.78 points.
Wednesday: Down 27.55 points.
Thursday: Up 259.83 points.
Friday: Down 145.91 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 107.47 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 55.61 points or 1.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 17.86 points or 0.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.9% down from the high of 18,288.63 on 03/02/2015.
     4.2% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     2.7% down from the high of 5,008.57 on 03/02/2015.
     6.8% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     3.1% down from the high of 2,119.59 on 02/25/2015.
     3.7% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Industrial production9:15 MB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Capacity utilization9:15 MB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.
Building permits8:30 TB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Housing starts8:30 TB-Number of homes beginning construction.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Rate decision2:00 W?The Federal Reserves reports on interest rate changes.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Leading indicators10:00 ThD-Summary of already known reports.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
VIX expiresWednesday
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/13/2015, the CPI had:

29 bearish patterns,
7 bullish patterns,
196 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 19.4%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 3 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,497  17,623  17,756  17,882  18,015 
Weekly  17,390  17,570  17,800  17,980  18,211 
Monthly  17,218  17,484  17,886  18,152  18,554 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,030  2,042  2,053  2,065  2,076 
Weekly  2,015  2,034  2,059  2,078  2,103 
Monthly  1,991  2,022  2,071  2,102  2,151 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,811  4,842  4,873  4,903  4,935 
Weekly  4,781  4,826  4,888  4,934  4,996 
Monthly  4,578  4,725  4,867  5,014  5,156 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks down 11.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 19.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks down 7.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 20.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 17.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 26.1%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bullish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
18Triangle, symmetrical
11Flag
11Scallop, ascending and inverted
7Triangle, ascending
7Pipe top
5Broadening top
4Head-and-shoulders top
3Triple top
3Broadening bottom
3Diamond top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Retail Building Supply1. Drug
2. Human Resources2. Biotechnology
3. Drug3. Retail Building Supply
4. Biotechnology4. Human Resources
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. Furn/Home Furnishings
50. Metals and Mining (Div.)50. Metals and Mining (Div.)
51. Petroleum (Integrated)51. Petroleum (Integrated)
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Coal
54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Saturday 3/14/15. How Old is this Bull Market?

I updated an article that describes how long this bull market is.

It's a short read but I also included the data so you can look it over yourself.

-- Thomas Bulkowski


Friday 3/13/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 23 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 592 stocks searched, or 3.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 13 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABAXRising wedge      02/11/201503/12/2015Medical Supplies
ASNARising wedge      01/09/201503/12/2015Apparel
AIZBroadening bottom      02/25/201503/12/2015Insurance (Diversified)
BZHScallop, ascending and inverted      02/03/201503/11/2015Homebuilding
CHSTriangle, symmetrical      02/13/201503/12/2015Apparel
COHPipe top      02/23/201503/02/2015Apparel
CMCOPipe top      02/23/201503/02/2015Machinery
CONNFlag, high and tight      01/22/201503/12/2015Retail (Special Lines)
CRHScallop, ascending and inverted      01/30/201503/10/2015Cement and Aggregates
CCRNPipe top      02/23/201503/02/2015Human Resources
CSGSScallop, ascending and inverted      02/02/201503/11/2015Computer Software and Svcs
FISVScallop, ascending and inverted      02/02/201503/11/2015Computer Software and Svcs
GFFScallop, ascending and inverted      01/28/201503/10/2015Building Materials
GESFalling wedge      02/02/201503/11/2015Apparel
HONScallop, ascending and inverted      02/02/201503/11/2015Aerospace/Defense
INFAFlag      02/13/201503/11/2015E-Commerce
MWWFlag      03/03/201503/12/2015Advertising
OMCPipe top      02/23/201503/02/2015Advertising
SPFPipe top      02/23/201503/02/2015Homebuilding
USGFalling wedge      01/20/201503/12/2015Building Materials
WATBroadening top      02/26/201503/12/2015Precision Instrument
WSMRectangle top      02/04/201503/12/2015Retail (Special Lines)
XHBScallop, ascending and inverted      01/16/201503/11/2015Homebuilding

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/05/2015 and 03/12/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abaxis Inc (ABAX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 54 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $62.98
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $65.94 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.82%
Volume: 135,700 shares. 3 month avg: 206,077 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/11/2015 to 03/12/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 495 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $13.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.77 or 7.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.95%
Volume: 1,177,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,769,740 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/09/2015 to 03/12/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Assurant Inc (AIZ)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 392 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $61.87
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.59 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.59%
Volume: 430,200 shares. 3 month avg: 597,028 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 02/25/2015 to 03/12/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 459 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $16.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.23 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.65%
Volume: 402,000 shares. 3 month avg: 698,231 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 02/03/2015 to 03/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Chicos FAS Inc. (CHS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 136 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $17.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.98 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.67%
Volume: 3,000,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,242,665 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/13/2015 to 03/12/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Coach Inc. (COH)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 209 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $40.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $42.14 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.99%
Volume: 4,964,100 shares. 3 month avg: 5,180,572 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/23/2015 to 03/02/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Columbus McKinnon (CMCO)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 353 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $24.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.13 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.52%
Volume: 123,800 shares. 3 month avg: 54,158 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/23/2015 to 03/02/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Conns Inc (CONN)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 417 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $27.88
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.82 or 11.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 49.17%
Volume: 730,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,618,885 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 01/22/2015 to 03/12/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 12/09/2014. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/09/2015.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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CRH plc (CRH)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 186 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $27.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.14 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.66%
Volume: 279,600 shares. 3 month avg: 564,023 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 01/30/2015 to 03/10/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Cross Country Healthcare Inc (CCRN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 93 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $10.64
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.14 or 14.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.74%
Volume: 309,600 shares. 3 month avg: 310,740 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/23/2015 to 03/02/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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CSG Systems International Inc (CSGS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 218 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $29.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.04 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.19%
Volume: 286,300 shares. 3 month avg: 273,788 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 02/02/2015 to 03/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Fiserv, Inc (FISV)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 95 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $78.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $75.47 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.24%
Volume: 877,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,231,208 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 02/02/2015 to 03/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 38 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $16.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.55 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.76%
Volume: 164,100 shares. 3 month avg: 162,645 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 01/28/2015 to 03/10/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Guess Inc. (GES)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 516 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $17.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.27 or 8.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.32%
Volume: 1,849,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,160,363 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 02/02/2015 to 03/11/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 225 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $102.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $98.64 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.54%
Volume: 2,604,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,786,509 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 02/02/2015 to 03/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Informatica Corporation (INFA)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 44 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $43.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.87 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.29%
Volume: 1,104,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,567,617 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/13/2015 to 03/11/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 106 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $6.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.62 or 12.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 39.39%
Volume: 1,791,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,902,380 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 03/03/2015 to 03/12/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 229 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $77.70
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $80.18 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.30%
Volume: 878,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,452,772 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/23/2015 to 03/02/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Standard Pacific (SPF)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 295 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $8.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.96 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.19%
Volume: 2,713,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,701,608 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/23/2015 to 03/02/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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USG Corp (USG)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 410 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $27.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.92 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.82%
Volume: 2,113,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,609,877 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 01/20/2015 to 03/12/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Waters Corp (WAT)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 108 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $121.98
1 Month avg volatility: $1.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $125.86 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.22%
Volume: 511,400 shares. 3 month avg: 418,780 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 02/26/2015 to 03/12/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 73 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $81.59
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $77.79 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.81%
Volume: 515,200 shares. 3 month avg: 690,474 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/04/2015 to 03/12/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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SPDR Homebuiilders ETF (XHB)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 143 out of 585
3/12/15 close: $35.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.50 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.01%
Volume: 2,405,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,004,438 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 01/16/2015 to 03/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Thursday 3/12/15. Nasdaq Descending Triangle

The index dropped by -0.2% or -9.85 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 448 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 232 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 216 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 81/136 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/58 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The magenta trendline (the longer one) shows a downward trend in the Nasdaq composite. That's a concern for anyone owning stocks.

The two red lines show a descending triangle. The triangle is really from Wednesday's trading only. The longer top red line just highlights the down-sloping tops of this trend.

Descending triangles breakout downward 64% of the time according to the numbers in my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition , pictured on the right.

That does not mean the index will breakout downward on Thursday. But it is a strong indication. I have my doubts. I think we're due for a rebound.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,384.88    
 Monthly S1  4,617.41  232.53   
 Monthly Pivot  4,812.99  195.58   
 Daily S2  4,828.31  15.32   
 Weekly S2  4,835.77  7.47   
 Daily S1  4,839.12  3.35   
 Weekly S1  4,842.86  3.73   
 Low  4,846.79  3.93   
 Close  4,849.94  3.15   
 Daily Pivot  4,857.61  7.67   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,857.98  0.38   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,861.44  3.46   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,864.90  3.46   
 Open  4,866.94  2.04   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  4,868.42  1.48   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  4,876.09  7.67   
 Daily R2  4,886.91  10.82   
 Weekly Pivot  4,925.71  38.81   
 Weekly R1  4,932.80  7.08   
 Weekly R2  5,015.65  82.86   
 Monthly R1  5,045.52  29.87   
 Monthly R2  5,241.10  195.58   

Thursday 3/12/15. Nasdaq Descending Triangle

The index dropped by -0.2% or -9.85 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 448 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 232 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 216 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 81/136 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/58 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The magenta trendline (the longer one) shows a downward trend in the Nasdaq composite. That's a concern for anyone owning stocks.

The two red lines show a descending triangle. The triangle is really from Wednesday's trading only. The longer top red line just highlights the down-sloping tops of this trend.

Descending triangles breakout downward 64% of the time according to the numbers in my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition , pictured on the right.

That does not mean the index will breakout downward on Thursday. But it is a strong indication. I have my doubts. I think we're due for a rebound.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,384.88    
 Monthly S1  4,617.41  232.53   
 Monthly Pivot  4,812.99  195.58   
 Daily S2  4,828.31  15.32   
 Weekly S2  4,835.77  7.47   
 Daily S1  4,839.12  3.35   
 Weekly S1  4,842.86  3.73   
 Low  4,846.79  3.93   
 Close  4,849.94  3.15   
 Daily Pivot  4,857.61  7.67   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,857.98  0.38   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,861.44  3.46   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,864.90  3.46   
 Open  4,866.94  2.04   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  4,868.42  1.48   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  4,876.09  7.67   
 Daily R2  4,886.91  10.82   
 Weekly Pivot  4,925.71  38.81   
 Weekly R1  4,932.80  7.08   
 Weekly R2  5,015.65  82.86   
 Monthly R1  5,045.52  29.87   
 Monthly R2  5,241.10  195.58   

Wednesday 3/11/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

There's not much to say about this picture since it tells all. The indicator is bearish with no sign of turning. Yet.

I don't expect this drop to last but I swapped my targets (see top of this page, Tom's Targets). The economy is improving and the market is worried about interest rates. Ho-hum. I don't care if rates rise. So I expect the markets to rebound soon.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/10/15. Dow Inverted Scallop

The index climbed by 0.8% or 138.94 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 558 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 308 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 250 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 90/145 or 62.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/43 or 53.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I don't have much to say about this figure except that there's an inverted and ascending scallop, highlighted here in red. Those breakout upward and become valid when they do.

But this could also be the move up to the corrective phase of a measured move down, which has completed. The MMD began at the open on Tuesday with the corrective phase being the upward retrace on Wednesday and Thursday of last week. I show that in green. Price often returns to the corrective phase, just as it did here.

$ $ $

I spent 2.5 hours removing two stumps from my back yard. That chore left me exhausted. Along with daylight savings time (an idea whose time has come and gone in this internet age of shopping), I was tired today, too.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,523.17    
 Monthly S1  17,259.44  736.28   
 Weekly S2  17,573.02  313.58   
 Monthly Pivot  17,774.04  201.02   
 Weekly S1  17,784.37  10.33   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S2  17,786.63  2.26   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  17,856.56  69.93   
 Open  17,856.56  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  17,891.17  34.61   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,923.21  32.04   
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,943.80  20.59   
 Daily Pivot  17,961.11  17.31   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,964.39  3.28   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  17,995.72  31.33   
 High  18,031.04  35.32   
 Weekly Pivot  18,036.50  5.46   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  18,065.65  29.15   
 Daily R2  18,135.59  69.93   
 Weekly R1  18,247.85  112.26   
 Weekly R2  18,499.98  252.13   
 Monthly R1  18,510.31  10.33   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  19,024.91  514.59   

Monday 3/9/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

Readers of this blog who read Wednesday's post and the prior Wednesday's post knew that something was wrong with the market. Today's (Friday) drop confirms that bearish blip. I consider it a blip because if the reports are true, that there was a fear of rising interest rates during Friday's trading, it's overblown.

This chart is on the daily scale of the S&P 500 index.

I show a support zone at A. It is a tall one, sandwiched between the two red lines. I hope and expect that the index will find support here and turn. My guess, as I mentioned at the opening of this blog, is that the recent weakness is overblown. It's a shakeout and the indices will return to new highs shortly.

Or I could be wrong...

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 155.93 points.
Tuesday: Down 85.26 points.
Wednesday: Down 106.47 points.
Thursday: Up 38.82 points.
Friday: Down 278.94 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 275.92 points or 1.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 36.16 points or 0.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 33.24 points or 1.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.4% down from the high of 18,288.63 on 03/02/2015.
     4.8% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     1.6% down from the high of 5,008.57 on 03/02/2015.
     8.0% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     2.3% down from the high of 2,119.59 on 02/25/2015.
     4.6% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Wholesale inventories10:00 TD-Wholesale sales and inventory statistics.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Treasury budget2:00 WDTracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing).
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Retail sales8:30 ThA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
International trade8:30 ThC+Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others.
Building permits8:30 ThB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Producer price index8:30 FB-Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/06/2015, the CPI had:

108 bearish patterns,
4 bullish patterns,
185 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 3.6%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,629  17,743  17,939  18,053  18,250 
Weekly  17,527  17,692  17,990  18,155  18,454 
Monthly  16,477  17,167  17,728  18,418  18,979 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,046  2,059  2,080  2,092  2,113 
Weekly  2,035  2,053  2,085  2,103  2,136 
Monthly  1,919  1,995  2,057  2,134  2,196 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,879  4,903  4,943  4,967  5,007 
Weekly  4,862  4,894  4,952  4,984  5,041 
Monthly  4,411  4,669  4,839  5,097  5,267 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 15.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 19.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 14.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 20.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 29.4%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 26.1%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bullish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
18Triangle, symmetrical
9Flag
7Triangle, ascending
6Pipe bottom
5Diamond top
5Broadening bottom
4Scallop, ascending and inverted
4Head-and-shoulders bottom
4Broadening top
4Head-and-shoulders top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Drug1. Human Resources
2. Biotechnology2. Retail Building Supply
3. Retail Building Supply3. Drug
4. Human Resources4. Air Transport
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. Furn/Home Furnishings
50. Metals and Mining (Div.)50. Short ETFs
51. Petroleum (Integrated)51. Petroleum (Integrated)
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Coal53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
55. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Saturday 3/7/15. Small Caps Rule!

I did research on market cap and found that small cap stocks outperformed mid caps. Mid caps outperformed large caps.

If you want to beat the performance of the market, try adding small cap stocks to your portfolio.

To read the article click the link.


Friday 3/6/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 31 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 593 stocks searched, or 5.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 20 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ANFDead-cat bounce      03/04/201503/04/2015Apparel
ACETTriangle, symmetrical      11/04/201403/05/2015Chemical (Diversified)
ADSTriangle, symmetrical      02/03/201503/04/2015Information Services
APATriangle, symmetrical      02/09/201503/05/2015Petroleum (Producing)
CBTScallop, ascending and inverted      01/28/201503/02/2015Chemical (Diversified)
CDIDead-cat bounce      03/04/201503/04/2015Human Resources
CEBroadening top      02/12/201503/02/2015Chemical (Basic)
CELGTriangle, ascending      01/06/201503/04/2015Biotechnology
CBTriangle, symmetrical      01/23/201503/05/2015Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CROXHorn bottom      02/09/201502/23/2015Shoe
EMNScallop, ascending and inverted      01/30/201503/05/2015Chemical (Diversified)
RDENBroadening top      02/17/201503/05/2015Toiletries/Cosmetics
FDXTriangle, symmetrical      12/08/201402/27/2015Air Transport
FMCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/18/201503/03/2015Chemical (Basic)
HRSTriple top      02/20/201503/02/2015Telecom. Equipment
HERODead-cat bounce      02/27/201502/27/2015Petroleum (Producing)
IDXXTriangle, ascending      02/09/201503/05/2015Drug
INFNTriangle, symmetrical      02/12/201503/05/2015Telecom. Equipment
IBKRRoof, inverted      02/11/201503/05/2015Securities Brokerage
ISRGTriangle, symmetrical      01/29/201503/05/2015Medical Supplies
JCOMChannel      02/17/201503/05/2015Internet
LLYTriangle, symmetrical      12/11/201403/05/2015Drug
MSScallop, ascending and inverted      02/02/201503/05/2015Securities Brokerage
PTENTriangle, symmetrical      02/03/201503/03/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
STJTriangle, ascending      01/14/201503/05/2015Medical Supplies
TMKPennant      02/20/201503/05/2015Insurance (Diversified)
UNMTriangle, descending      02/20/201503/05/2015Insurance (Diversified)
VFCFlag      02/26/201503/05/2015Apparel
WSMRectangle top      02/04/201503/05/2015Retail (Special Lines)
XLTriangle, ascending      12/08/201402/27/2015Insurance (Diversified)
THDScallop, ascending and inverted      01/05/201503/04/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/26/2015 and 03/05/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abercrombie and Fitch Co. (ANF)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 580 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $20.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.62 or 12.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.43%
Volume: 16,430,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,115,957 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 03/04/2015 to 03/04/2015

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Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 230 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $21.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.50 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.40%
Volume: 191,100 shares. 3 month avg: 139,183 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/04/2014 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Alliance Data Systems Corp (ADS)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 245 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $282.71
1 Month avg volatility: $5.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $267.29 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.17%
Volume: 335,700 shares. 3 month avg: 520,978 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/03/2015 to 03/04/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Apache Corp. (APA)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 550 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $65.43
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.57 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.40%
Volume: 3,790,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,198,391 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/09/2015 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cabot Corp. (CBT)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 481 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $45.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.44 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.38%
Volume: 241,000 shares. 3 month avg: 435,269 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 01/28/2015 to 03/02/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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CDI Corp (CDI)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 408 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $14.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.74 or 11.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.63%
Volume: 253,400 shares. 3 month avg: 67,794 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 03/04/2015 to 03/04/2015

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Celanese Corp (CE)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 414 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $58.47
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.66 or 5.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.48%
Volume: 970,100 shares. 3 month avg: 925,823 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 02/12/2015 to 03/02/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Celgene Corp (CELG)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 61 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $120.71
1 Month avg volatility: $2.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $113.89 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.91%
Volume: 3,580,200 shares. 3 month avg: 5,572,855 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 01/06/2015 to 03/04/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Chubb Corp (CB)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 210 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $100.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $97.85 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.44%
Volume: 866,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,106,306 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/23/2015 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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CROCS Inc (CROX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 529 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $11.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.75 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.33%
Volume: 1,480,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,028,028 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 02/09/2015 to 02/23/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Eastman Chemical (EMN)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 454 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $73.55
1 Month avg volatility: $1.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.13 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.05%
Volume: 2,105,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,742,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 01/30/2015 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Elizabeth Arden Inc (RDEN)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 343 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $16.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.14 or 8.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -21.60%
Volume: 135,100 shares. 3 month avg: 249,189 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 02/17/2015 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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FedEx (FDX)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 140 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $174.82
1 Month avg volatility: $2.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $169.38 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.67%
Volume: 932,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,863,142 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/08/2014 to 02/27/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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FMC Corp. (FMC)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 393 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $62.33
1 Month avg volatility: $1.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $65.82 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.29%
Volume: 547,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,137,625 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/18/2015 to 03/03/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Harris Corp (HRS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 238 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $76.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.57 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.43%
Volume: 691,100 shares. 3 month avg: 875,429 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 02/20/2015 to 03/02/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Hercules Offshore, Inc. (HERO)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 585 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $0.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $0.42 or 30.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -40.28%
Volume: 3,772,400 shares. 3 month avg: 4,270,803 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 02/27/2015 to 02/27/2015

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IDEXX Laboratories, Inc (IDXX)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 71 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $157.89
1 Month avg volatility: $2.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $150.66 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.49%
Volume: 359,100 shares. 3 month avg: 375,472 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/09/2015 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 7 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $17.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.06 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.66%
Volume: 899,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,725,112 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/12/2015 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 33 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $32.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.90 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.94%
Volume: 370,700 shares. 3 month avg: 553,066 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 02/11/2015 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 275 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $499.52
1 Month avg volatility: $8.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $481.65 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.56%
Volume: 205,100 shares. 3 month avg: 236,985 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/29/2015 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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J2 Global Communications Inc. (JCOM)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 40 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $68.78
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.43 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.94%
Volume: 208,900 shares. 3 month avg: 353,026 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 02/17/2015 to 03/05/2015

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Lilly, Eli and Co. (LLY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 203 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $70.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.46 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.32%
Volume: 3,465,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,691,943 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/11/2014 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Morgan Stanley (MS)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 308 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $35.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.79 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.45%
Volume: 8,915,000 shares. 3 month avg: 10,573,863 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 02/02/2015 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. (PTEN)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 571 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $19.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.18 or 16.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.30%
Volume: 8,229,300 shares. 3 month avg: 6,040,831 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/03/2015 to 03/03/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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St. Jude Medical Inc (STJ)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 295 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $67.73
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.83 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.15%
Volume: 914,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,018,502 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 01/14/2015 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Torchmark Corp (TMK)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 358 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $53.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.75 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.94%
Volume: 451,700 shares. 3 month avg: 697,611 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 02/20/2015 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Unum Group (UNM)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 428 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $33.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.98 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.81%
Volume: 1,164,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,930,752 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/20/2015 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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V. F. Corp (VFC)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 106 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $76.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $73.60 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.56%
Volume: 1,748,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,284,294 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/26/2015 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 86 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $79.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $76.24 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.66%
Volume: 566,500 shares. 3 month avg: 680,860 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/04/2015 to 03/05/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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XL Group (XL)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 235 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $36.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.52 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.81%
Volume: 3,422,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,915,865 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 12/08/2014 to 02/27/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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MSCI Thailand Invest Mkt Index (THD)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 54
Stock RS rank: 386 out of 585
3/5/15 close: $80.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.65 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.27%
Volume: 267,000 shares. 3 month avg: 263,125 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 01/05/2015 to 03/04/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Thursday 3/5/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.3% or -12.76 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 461 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 242 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 219 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 80/134 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/58 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I wrote about the measured move up on Tuesday. The index did retrace to the corrective phase...and then kept on going down.

Today's post shows the compliment of a MMU. It's a measured move down. The pattern forms at A and drops to B in the first leg. The corrective phase is the BC retrace, and the second leg down is the CE move. I have no idea what happened to D but that's irrelevant.

Notice how the index has climbed back to the corrective phase (BC), just like it does so often. The big question is, where does the index go from here?

The answer to this is simple. I have no idea.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,436.83    
 Monthly S1  4,701.98  265.16   
 Monthly Pivot  4,845.62  143.63   
 Weekly S2  4,915.63  70.01   
 Daily S2  4,925.37  9.74   
 Low  4,938.90  13.53   
 Weekly S1  4,941.38  2.48   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  4,946.25  4.87   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,952.05  5.79   
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,956.11  4.06   
 Daily Pivot  4,959.79  3.68   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,960.17  0.38   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  4,961.24  1.07   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  4,965.32  4.08   
 Close  4,967.14  1.82   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  4,973.32  6.18   
 Daily R1  4,980.67  7.35   
 Weekly R1  4,991.07  10.40   
 Daily R2  4,994.21  3.13   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  5,015.01  20.80   
 Monthly R1  5,110.77  95.77   
 Monthly R2  5,254.41  143.63   

Wednesday 3/4/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: Sell Signal

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bearish divergence that I reported on last Wednesday continues only this time the indicator has turned to a sell signal.

Let's look at the next chart.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

It shows the bearish signal in red on the far right. Of course, this could change to bullish in a day if the market were to make a big move up. It'll take a week for the signal to calm down enough to be reliable, but often that takes just 3 days.

$ $ $

Let me say that I spent a long time reviewing my portfolio of stocks this past weekend. I am now more aggressive on taking profit and cutting losses. This is a change and I'm not sure what prompted it. Last year's weak performance is part of it and so is the non-performance (weak performance compared to the S&P) of several stocks in my portfolio. I also needed to rebalance some issues to cut the position size after they tripled in price from where I bought them. That's a nice problem to have.

In short, I'm adding more swing positions and making fewer position trades.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/3/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.9% or 155.93 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 486 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 287 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 199 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 59.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 90/144 or 62.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/43 or 53.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

This chart shows a measured move up chart pattern, outlined in red.

The first leg up is the near vertical red line. Following that is the corrective phase, the horizontal red line. The second leg completes the pattern with a second up move.

What's the problem with this pattern? Nothing. But it is what happens after the pattern completes that is a storm on the horizon. A security often retraces back to the corrective phase (that's back to the horizontal red line).

My book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition lists in Table 33.4 on page 518 how often a stock will retrace back to various points in the MMU.

Will the percentages play out the same in an index and using the intraday scale? I'll let you answer that.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,650.30    
 Monthly S1  17,469.47  819.16   
 Monthly Pivot  17,856.92  387.46   
 Weekly S2  18,006.41  149.49   
 Daily S2  18,067.24  60.83   
 Low  18,122.59  55.35   
 Open  18,134.05  11.46   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly S1  18,147.52  13.47   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Open.
 Daily S1  18,177.94  30.42   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,186.02  8.08   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot  18,195.95  9.93   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,205.61  9.66   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,225.20  19.59   
 Daily Pivot  18,233.28  8.08   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  18,288.63  55.35   
 High  18,288.63  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  18,337.06  48.43   
 Daily R1  18,343.98  6.92   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  18,385.49  41.51   
 Daily R2  18,399.32  13.83   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  18,676.09  276.76   
 Monthly R2  19,063.54  387.46   

Monday 3/2/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

Notice the descending triangle highlighted in red. That's not why I highlighted the triangle.

If you take the height of the triangle and add it to the breakout price, you get a target price for the index. That target often, but not always, serves as a minimum move.

Eyeballing the chart, it looks like A is at 4800 and B is at 4550. Those are not exact prices, but they will do. The difference is the height or 250. Add that to C (the breakout at ~4775) to get a target of 5025.

That's about where the index is now. The index has reached the target, so I expect the index to retrace some or move sideways in the coming week.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 23.6 points.
Tuesday: Up 92.35 points.
Wednesday: Up 15.38 points.
Thursday: Down 10.15 points.
Friday: Down 81.72 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 7.74 points or 0.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 7.56 points or 0.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 5.8 points or 0.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.6% down from the high of 18,244.38 on 02/25/2015.
     6.4% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     0.5% down from the high of 4,989.25 on 02/27/2015.
     8.8% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     0.7% down from the high of 2,119.59 on 02/25/2015.
     6.2% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Personal income & consumption8:30 MC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 MC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Construction spending10:00 MDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Auto & truck sales2:00 TC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FEDs Beige book2:00 W?Reports on economic conditions.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Productivity & costs8:30 ThD+Cost of producing a unit of output.
Factory orders10:00 ThD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Trade balance8:30 FC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
Consumer credit3:00 FD-Measures auto, credit card and other debt.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/27/2015, the CPI had:

20 bearish patterns,
17 bullish patterns,
360 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 45.9%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,079  18,106  18,159  18,187  18,240 
Weekly  17,954  18,044  18,144  18,233  18,334 
Monthly  16,598  17,366  17,805  18,572  19,012 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,098  2,101  2,107  2,110  2,116 
Weekly  2,092  2,098  2,109  2,115  2,126 
Monthly  1,930  2,017  2,068  2,156  2,207 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,943  4,953  4,971  4,982  5,000 
Weekly  4,914  4,939  4,964  4,989  5,014 
Monthly  4,436  4,700  4,844  5,108  5,253 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 53.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 26.8%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 53.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 4 weeks up 19.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 48.3%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bullish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
23Head-and-shoulders bottom
22Pipe bottom
22Triangle, symmetrical
18Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
16Triple bottom
11Double Top, Adam and Eve
9Triangle, descending
8Flag
8Broadening top
6Diamond top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Human Resources1. Drug
2. Retail Building Supply2. Human Resources
3. Drug3. Retail Building Supply
4. Air Transport4. Biotechnology
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. Air Transport
50. Short ETFs50. Petroleum (Integrated)
51. Petroleum (Integrated)51. Short ETFs
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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