Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 11/11/2019
  Indus: 27,691 +10.25 +0.0%  
  Trans: 11,030 -37.61 -0.3%  
  Utils: 830 -5.55 -0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 8,464 -11.03 -0.1%  
  S&P 500: 3,087 -6.07 -0.2%  
YTD
 +18.7%  
 +20.3%  
 +16.4%  
 +27.6%  
 +23.1%  
  Targets    Overview: 10/31/2019  
  Up arrow27,750 or 26,900 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,100 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow8,500 or 8,000 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow3,150 or 2,950 by 11/15/2019
As of 11/11/2019
  Indus: 27,691 +10.25 +0.0%  
  Trans: 11,030 -37.61 -0.3%  
  Utils: 830 -5.55 -0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 8,464 -11.03 -0.1%  
  S&P 500: 3,087 -6.07 -0.2%  
YTD
 +18.7%  
 +20.3%  
 +16.4%  
 +27.6%  
 +23.1%  
  Targets    Overview: 10/31/2019  
  Up arrow27,750 or 26,900 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,100 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow8,500 or 8,000 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow3,150 or 2,950 by 11/15/2019

 

June 2019 Headlines

Archives


Friday 6/28/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 4 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 593 stocks searched, or 0.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ESVPipe bottom      06/10/201906/17/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
HSCTriangle, symmetrical      06/06/201906/27/2019Diversified Co.
JBLUPipe top      06/10/201906/17/2019Air Transport
PHMBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      04/24/201906/27/2019Homebuilding
SLGNTriangle, symmetrical      05/31/201906/27/2019Packaging and Container

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/20/2019 and 06/27/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Ensco Rowan plc (ESV)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 577 out of 588
6/27/19 close: $8.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.06 or 15.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -41.08%
Volume: 6,015,600 shares. 3 month avg: 16,303,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/10/2019 to 06/17/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 114 out of 588
6/27/19 close: $27.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.34 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 37.97%
Volume: 573,800 shares. 3 month avg: 523,465 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/06/2019 to 06/27/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 324 out of 588
6/27/19 close: $18.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.23 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.76%
Volume: 5,094,800 shares. 3 month avg: 6,141,268 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/10/2019 to 06/17/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 224 out of 588
6/27/19 close: $31.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.24 or 5.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.39%
Volume: 2,729,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,812,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 04/24/2019 to 06/27/2019
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Silgan Holdings Inc (SLGN)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 134 out of 588
6/27/19 close: $29.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.71 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.29%
Volume: 343,900 shares. 3 month avg: 499,285 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/31/2019 to 06/27/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 6/27/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.3% or 25.25 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 646 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 354 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 292 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 167/303 or 55.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 51/102 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

As the chart shows, the index shot upward from A to B at the open but then faded through the remainder of the session.

This pattern reminds me of a flag chart pattern except I don't like having a flagpole consist of a gap (that is, the climb from A to B). Plus, the flag is way too long for such a short pole. It's not proportional.

Other than that, the picture isn't very exciting. I don't think it tells us anything about Thursday's trading.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,967.03    
 Monthly S1  7,438.50  471.47   
 Weekly S2  7,660.88  222.38   
 Monthly Pivot  7,763.69  102.81   
 Weekly S1  7,785.43  21.74   
 Daily S2  7,857.90  72.47   
 Daily S1  7,883.93  26.04   
 Low  7,903.07  19.14   
 Close  7,909.97  6.90   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  7,929.11  19.14   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,930.27  1.17   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  7,933.92  3.65   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  7,937.15  3.23   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,938.67  1.52   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,947.08  8.40   
 Daily R1  7,955.14  8.07   
 High  7,974.28  19.14   
 Daily R2  8,000.32  26.04   
 Weekly R1  8,061.70  61.38   
 Weekly R2  8,213.42  151.73   
 Monthly R1  8,235.16  21.74   
 Monthly R2  8,560.35  325.19   

Wednesday 6/26/19. Indicators Turn Bearish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

A week ago, I wrote, "the thin blue indicator line has hit its peak (100) and bounce[d] downward. That's the first sign of weakness, but not indicative of a major decline coming."

This week, the red bar on the far right of the chart has signaled a bearish turn in the markets. However, remember that the signal can change for up to a week.

That means the red bar can be replaced by a green bar (really, the red bar just disappears, leaving the prior green signal intact). That can happen if the market were to rise several hundred points.

Still, seeing a red bar is not a good sign. I feel pleased that I sold a security at yesterday's open, bypassing two sessions of bad news.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 41% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 39%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 491 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 12% on 08/29/2018.
And the bottom was 34% on 12/24/2018.

The more sensitive of the two lines is the red one and it's more bearish this week than the snapshot taken a week ago.

But we know from following these charts that these two indicators mirror what is happening in the price chart. If the index rises, so will the indicators. If the index tumbles, so too will the red and blue lines. In other words, they don't add much value.

$ $ $

I updated the performance stats of inverted roof.

$ $ $

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/25/19. Slider Quiz! Falling Wedges

The index climbed by 0.0% or 8.41 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1302 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 692 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 610 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 189/312 or 60.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/74 or 51.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the falling wedge chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  23,878.36    
 Monthly S1  25,302.95  1,424.59   
 Weekly S2  25,744.00  441.05   
 Monthly Pivot  26,105.16  361.16   
 Weekly S1  26,235.77  130.61   
 Weekly Pivot  26,571.57  335.80   
 Daily S2  26,669.33  97.76   
 Daily S1  26,698.43  29.11   
 Low  26,723.37  24.94   
 Close  26,727.54  4.17   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Open  26,727.61  0.07   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  26,752.48  24.87   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,755.13  2.66   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,764.95  9.81   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,774.76  9.81   
 Daily R1  26,781.58  6.83   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  26,806.52  24.94   
 Daily R2  26,835.63  29.11   
 Weekly R1  27,063.34  227.71   
 Weekly R2  27,399.14  335.80   
 Monthly R1  27,529.75  130.61   
 Monthly R2  28,331.96  802.21   

Monday 6/24/19. Market Monday: Trouble Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Dow industrials. Usually I rotate among five indices but I skipped the transports because the industrials look more appealing.

Here's what I see happening.

Notice the strong move up from the June low (A to B). It reaches the green circle and hesitates for a few days. Then it completes its journey to peak at the top of the chart (C).

That rise-pause-rise (ABC) is a pattern called a measured move up.

The circled green area (B) is called the corrective phase. And what happens after a measured move up finishes?

Price returns to the green circle. And that's what I see happening during the coming week, maybe two (D).

This view is supported by today's chart pattern indicator (scroll down to the third chart). It's still bullish, but the indicator line has dropped down and looks weak. That could change, of course, but it's bearish looking as I write this.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 22.92 points.
Tuesday: Up 353.01 points.
Wednesday: Up 38.46 points.
Thursday: Up 249.17 points.
Friday: Down 34.04 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 629.52 points or 2.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 235.05 points or 3.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 63.48 points or 2.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.7% down from the high of 26,907.37 on 06/21/2019.
     18.0% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     1.8% down from the high of 8,176.08 on 04/29/2019.
     24.4% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.5% down from the high of 2,964.15 on 06/21/2019.
     20.7% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/21/2019, the CPI had:

12 bearish patterns,
22 bullish patterns,
192 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 64.7%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  26,576  26,648  26,777  26,849  26,979 
Weekly  25,741  26,230  26,569  27,058  27,396 
Monthly  23,876  25,297  26,102  27,524  28,329 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,937  2,944  2,954  2,961  2,971 
Weekly  2,857  2,904  2,934  2,981  3,011 
Monthly  2,646  2,798  2,881  3,033  3,116 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,977  8,004  8,039  8,066  8,100 
Weekly  7,701  7,867  7,978  8,143  8,254 
Monthly  7,008  7,520  7,804  8,316  8,601 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks up 26.7%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 54.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks up 26.9%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 55.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks up 30.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 47.4%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
57Pipe bottom
21Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
13Triangle, symmetrical
8Double Bottom, Eve and Eve
8Triple bottom
6Triangle, ascending
5Head-and-shoulders bottom
4Dead-cat bounce
4Falling wedge
4Diamond bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Healthcare Information1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Cement and Aggregates2. IT Services
3. Financial Services3. Financial Services
4. IT Services4. Healthcare Information
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/21/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 593 stocks searched, or 2.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 5 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 9 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADSKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/03/201906/14/2019Computer Software and Svcs
AVPTriangle, ascending      05/22/201906/18/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
BRCRising wedge      05/24/201906/18/2019Chemical (Diversified)
CNORoof      03/25/201906/14/2019Insurance (Diversified)
CSODPipe bottom      06/03/201906/10/2019E-Commerce
EBAYBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      03/08/201906/20/2019Internet
ERAPipe bottom      06/03/201906/10/2019Air Transport
ETHBump-and-run reversal, top      04/02/201906/14/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
FLIRPennant      06/10/201906/17/2019Aerospace/Defense
HONPennant      06/10/201906/17/2019Aerospace/Defense
IBKRPipe bottom      05/28/201906/10/2019Securities Brokerage
IVCPipe bottom      06/03/201906/10/2019Medical Supplies
MROBroadening bottom      05/31/201906/19/2019Petroleum (Integrated)
MCHXPipe bottom      06/03/201906/10/2019Advertising
OMITriangle, symmetrical      06/03/201906/18/2019Medical Supplies
SCSDouble Top, Eve and Adam      05/03/201906/18/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
TGTriple bottom      05/31/201906/17/2019Chemical (Specialty)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/13/2019 and 06/20/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Autodesk Inc (ADSK)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 108 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $169.45
1 Month avg volatility: $4.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $159.77 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.75%
Volume: 2,739,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,150,943 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/03/2019 to 06/14/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Avon Products (AVP)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 1 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $3.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.61 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 161.84%
Volume: 12,235,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,898,403 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/22/2019 to 06/18/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Brady Corp (BRC)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 259 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $48.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $50.76 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.31%
Volume: 172,400 shares. 3 month avg: 204,463 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 05/24/2019 to 06/18/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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CNO Financial Group, Inc (CNO)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 385 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $16.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.29 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.49%
Volume: 751,500 shares. 3 month avg: 898,068 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof reversal pattern from 03/25/2019 to 06/14/2019
Breakout is downward 84% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 68% of the time.

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Cornerstone OnDemand Inc (CSOD)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 320 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $57.88
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.37 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.77%
Volume: 615,200 shares. 3 month avg: 697,858 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/03/2019 to 06/10/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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eBay, Inc. (EBAY)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 61 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $39.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.85 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 42.22%
Volume: 11,821,700 shares. 3 month avg: 8,868,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 03/08/2019 to 06/20/2019
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Era Group Inc (ERA)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 511 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $8.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.50 or 9.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.15%
Volume: 149,900 shares. 3 month avg: 78,248 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/03/2019 to 06/10/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (ETH)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 331 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $20.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.22 or 8.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.03%
Volume: 437,000 shares. 3 month avg: 320,755 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Bump-and-run reversal, top reversal pattern from 04/02/2019 to 06/14/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Pullbacks occur 62% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 78% of the time.

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Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 155 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $53.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.37 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.93%
Volume: 795,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,165,460 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 06/10/2019 to 06/17/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 106 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $176.29
1 Month avg volatility: $2.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $171.11 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.43%
Volume: 4,234,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,744,942 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 06/10/2019 to 06/17/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 462 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $54.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.15 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.22%
Volume: 418,700 shares. 3 month avg: 658,995 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/10/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 81 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $5.57
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.80 or 13.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 29.53%
Volume: 497,600 shares. 3 month avg: 553,063 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/03/2019 to 06/10/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Marathon Oil (MRO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $14.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.11 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.60%
Volume: 17,482,200 shares. 3 month avg: 12,845,475 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 05/31/2019 to 06/19/2019
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Marchex, Inc (MCHX)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 13 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $4.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.98 or 11.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 70.19%
Volume: 107,400 shares. 3 month avg: 97,160 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/03/2019 to 06/10/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Owens and Minor Inc (OMI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 582 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $2.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.43 or 15.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -54.82%
Volume: 929,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,318,423 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/03/2019 to 06/18/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/20/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/21/2019.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Steelcase (SCS)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 379 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $15.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.32 or 9.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.41%
Volume: 2,496,400 shares. 3 month avg: 708,518 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 05/03/2019 to 06/18/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Tredegar Corp (TG)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 376 out of 588
6/20/19 close: $16.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.64 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.74%
Volume: 121,500 shares. 3 month avg: 64,734 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 05/31/2019 to 06/17/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Thursday 6/20/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.4% or 33.44 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 599 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 378 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 221 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 166/302 or 55.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 51/102 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The red line shows the approximate time of the FED announcement that they would keep interest rates unchanged. The index took a minor jump up and coasted higher going into the close.

Before that, though, the index made a big opening move on Tuesday, sending the Nasdaq soaring to B. Then it was like every trader was holding their breath for the FED announcement.

In other words, not much happened these last two days. Indeed, if you look back over the prior week, trading has been flat.

That lack of volatility reminds me of Bollinger bands. When they narrow you can bet that higher volatility lies ahead. So I expect more wild swings to come.

$ $ $

I released a new version of Patternz. This version has a trading simulator built in. You can practice trading chart patterns. It also has better support for intraday data (Alpha Vantage users, for example, can now download intraday data directly using the Update form).

Yes, I know, it leaves a lot to be desired. If something doesn't work, then send me an email describing what happened (a screen capture and data file are helpful). Send them to Picture of the chart pattern indicator

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,085.84    
 Monthly S1  7,536.58  450.74   
 Monthly Pivot  7,742.96  206.38   
 Weekly S2  7,754.41  11.45   
 Weekly S1  7,870.86  116.46   
 Weekly Pivot  7,890.43  19.56   
 Daily S2  7,903.89  13.46   
 Low  7,930.38  26.49   
 Daily S1  7,945.60  15.22   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,956.44  10.83   
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,964.48  8.05   
 Open  7,970.26  5.77   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  7,972.10  1.84   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,972.53  0.44   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  7,987.32  14.79   
 High  7,998.59  11.27   
 Weekly R1  8,006.88  8.29   
 Daily R1  8,013.81  6.93   
 Weekly R2  8,026.45  12.63   
 Daily R2  8,040.31  13.86   
 Monthly R1  8,193.70  153.39   
 Monthly R2  8,400.08  206.38   

Wednesday 6/19/19. A Look At Indicators: Bullish Still!

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator remains bullish as the vertical green bar on the right of the chart shows.

Indeed, the thin indicator line near chart bottom is also peaking, probably hitting its high of 100. Today's market climb (Dow up 353 points) helped the indicator.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 39% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 41%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 491 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 21%.
The peak was 12% on 08/29/2018.
And the bottom was 34% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines show improvement from a week ago.

However, notice that the red line is well below the May peak and yet the index appears to be nearly the same level. What does it mean?

I've no idea but the red line (the more sensitive of the two lines) looks like it's forming the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders top (left shoulder in March and head in May). Interesting. Is it bearish?

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/18/19. Slider Quiz! Double Tops

The index climbed by 0.1% or 22.92 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1341 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 692 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 649 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 188/311 or 60.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/74 or 51.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the Eve & Eve double top (or really all double tops) chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,112.49    
 Monthly S1  25,112.51  1,000.02   
 Monthly Pivot  25,680.59  568.08   
 Weekly S2  25,816.61  136.02   
 Weekly S1  25,964.57  147.96   
 Daily S2  26,033.39  68.82   
 Daily S1  26,072.96  39.57   
 Low  26,079.80  6.84   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot  26,106.62  26.82   
 Open  26,108.53  1.91   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  26,112.53  4.00   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,112.64  0.12   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  26,119.37  6.72   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,122.79  3.42   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,132.94  10.15   
 Daily R1  26,158.94  26.00   
 High  26,165.78  6.84   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  26,205.35  39.57   
 Weekly R1  26,254.58  49.23   
 Weekly R2  26,396.63  142.05   
 Monthly R1  26,680.61  283.98   
 Monthly R2  27,248.69  568.08   

Monday 6/17/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I think I've written about the rectangle before, perhaps on a different index. I'm speaking of the two parallel red lines in the middle of the chart.

Those lines highlight a support or resistance layer, depending on which direction you're approaching it.

Look at LHR. That might appear as a head-and-shoulders top chart pattern, where L is the left shoulder, H is the head, and R is the right shoulder.

But look closer at the right shoulder. It's not formed by a minor high, at least not yet. And it hasn't confirmed as a valid pattern, either. Confirmation would occur when price closes below a line connecting the armpits, the two valleys between the three peaks.

The FED will meet this week and I think interest rates will remain steady. The markets may like that, so look for a rising market this week.

$ $ $

I updated the performance statistics of the roof chart pattern.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 78.74 points.
Tuesday: Down 14.17 points.
Wednesday: Down 43.68 points.
Thursday: Up 101.94 points.
Friday: Down 17.16 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 105.67 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 54.56 points or 0.7%.
The S&P 500 index was up 13.64 points or 0.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.3% down from the high of 26,695.96 on 04/23/2019.
     15.2% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     4.6% down from the high of 8,176.08 on 04/29/2019.
     20.7% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     2.3% down from the high of 2,954.13 on 05/01/2019.
     18.1% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/14/2019, the CPI had:

22 bearish patterns,
21 bullish patterns,
436 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 48.8%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,906  25,998  26,080  26,172  26,254 
Weekly  25,809  25,949  26,099  26,239  26,389 
Monthly  24,105  25,097  25,673  26,665  27,241 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,872  2,880  2,887  2,894  2,902 
Weekly  2,855  2,871  2,891  2,907  2,927 
Monthly  2,660  2,774  2,842  2,955  3,024 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,757  7,777  7,798  7,818  7,839 
Weekly  7,691  7,744  7,827  7,880  7,963 
Monthly  7,022  7,409  7,679  8,067  8,337 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 34.4%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 54.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 35.7%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 55.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 35.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 47.4%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
31Pipe bottom
18Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
12Triangle, symmetrical
7Double Bottom, Eve and Eve
7Triple bottom
6Double Top, Adam and Adam
5Triangle, ascending
5Head-and-shoulders top
4Falling wedge
4Diamond bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. IT Services2. IT Services
3. Financial Services3. Financial Services
4. Healthcare Information4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)5. Healthcare Information

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/14/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 8 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 593 stocks searched, or 1.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 28 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is mildly bullish. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 30 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
MMMPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Diversified Co.
ALBPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Chemical (Diversified)
AABAPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Internet
AXPBroadening top      04/26/201906/07/2019Financial Services
ARCBPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Trucking/Transp. Leasing
ARWPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Electronics
BCPCPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Chemical (Specialty)
BKNGPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Internet
CALMPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Food Processing
CHSDiamond bottom      05/22/201906/13/2019Apparel
CGNXPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Precision Instrument
COSTPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Retail Store
CMIPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Machinery
^DJTPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019None
DRQTriangle, symmetrical      05/13/201906/13/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
EMNPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Chemical (Diversified)
FOEPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Chemical (Specialty)
GILDPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Biotechnology
JNJPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Medical Supplies
KBALPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
MASPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Building Materials
MLHRPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
MYGNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/29/201906/11/2019Biotechnology
NWPXPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Building Materials
NUSPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
ASGNPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Human Resources
OXMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/06/201906/12/2019Apparel
PKEDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/31/201906/12/2019Chemical (Specialty)
PATKPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Retail Building Supply
PGPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Household Products
KWRPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Chemical (Specialty)
RHIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/31/201906/07/2019Human Resources
SCSPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
VRTXTriangle, ascending      04/24/201906/13/2019Biotechnology
WERNPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Trucking/Transp. Leasing
WEXPipe bottom      05/28/201906/03/2019Information Services

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/06/2019 and 06/13/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
3M Company (MMM)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 507 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $168.85
1 Month avg volatility: $2.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $162.77 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.38%
Volume: 1,997,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,950,578 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Albemarle Corp. (ALB)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 516 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $72.76
1 Month avg volatility: $1.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.45 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.59%
Volume: 915,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,363,352 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Altaba (AABA)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 313 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $66.60
1 Month avg volatility: $1.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.20 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.95%
Volume: 6,448,900 shares. 3 month avg: 8,140,182 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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American Express Co (AXP)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 205 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $121.86
1 Month avg volatility: $1.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $126.02 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 27.84%
Volume: 2,334,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,419,958 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/26/2019 to 06/07/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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ArcBest Corp (ARCB)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 540 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $27.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.14 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.08%
Volume: 303,700 shares. 3 month avg: 234,063 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Arrow Electronics (ARW)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 440 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $69.16
1 Month avg volatility: $1.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.49 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.30%
Volume: 407,700 shares. 3 month avg: 447,163 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Balchem Corp (BCPC)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 119 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $97.80
1 Month avg volatility: $2.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $93.06 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.82%
Volume: 74,600 shares. 3 month avg: 82,003 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Booking Holdings (BKNG)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 426 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $1,809.52
1 Month avg volatility: $33.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1,735.43 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.06%
Volume: 299,300 shares. 3 month avg: 441,478 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 477 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $40.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.55 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.14%
Volume: 192,800 shares. 3 month avg: 322,132 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Chicos FAS Inc. (CHS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 570 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $3.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.06 or 12.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -37.90%
Volume: 3,487,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,783,222 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 05/22/2019 to 06/13/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Cognex (CGNX)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 288 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $44.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.26 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.29%
Volume: 907,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,157,365 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 198 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $259.71
1 Month avg volatility: $3.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $250.14 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.49%
Volume: 1,172,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,225,345 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Cummins Inc. (CMI)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 120 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $164.36
1 Month avg volatility: $2.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $156.39 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.99%
Volume: 769,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,327,631 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

DJ 20 Transportation (^DJT)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
6/13/19 close: $10,347.36
1 Month avg volatility: $148.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9,958.40 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.83%
Volume: 55,319,700 shares. 3 month avg: 45,694,840 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Dril-Quip Inc (DRQ)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 83 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $42.49
1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.56 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 41.49%
Volume: 304,800 shares. 3 month avg: 557,835 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/13/2019 to 06/13/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Eastman Chemical (EMN)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 356 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $74.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.10 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.49%
Volume: 908,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,209,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Ferro Corp (FOE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 479 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $15.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.45 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.15%
Volume: 378,100 shares. 3 month avg: 594,032 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 411 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $66.99
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.85 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.10%
Volume: 4,305,400 shares. 3 month avg: 8,272,228 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 446 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $140.71
1 Month avg volatility: $2.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $135.95 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.04%
Volume: 7,301,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,464,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Kimball International, Inc. (KBAL)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 224 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $16.73
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.97 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.90%
Volume: 133,900 shares. 3 month avg: 102,372 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Masco Corp. (MAS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 52 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $39.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.86 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.52%
Volume: 3,449,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,351,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Miller, Herman (MLHR)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 127 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $38.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.84 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.54%
Volume: 290,500 shares. 3 month avg: 361,806 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Myriad Genetics Inc (MYGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 514 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $25.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.69 or 12.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.60%
Volume: 1,236,900 shares. 3 month avg: 906,888 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/29/2019 to 06/11/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/08/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/07/2019 and a 38% chance by 11/06/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Northwest Pipe Co (NWPX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 318 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $25.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.26 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.64%
Volume: 8,800 shares. 3 month avg: 31,645 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc (NUS)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 529 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $51.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.62 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.45%
Volume: 391,700 shares. 3 month avg: 417,486 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

On Assignment, Inc. (ASGN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 460 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $57.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.71 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.43%
Volume: 228,400 shares. 3 month avg: 295,840 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Oxford Industries (OXM)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 400 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $74.58
1 Month avg volatility: $2.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.68 or 10.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.98%
Volume: 788,100 shares. 3 month avg: 144,562 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/06/2019 to 06/12/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Park Electrochemical (PKE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 496 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $15.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.32 or 9.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.73%
Volume: 104,000 shares. 3 month avg: 70,862 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 05/31/2019 to 06/12/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Patrick Industries Inc (PATK)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 24 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $46.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.16 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 56.97%
Volume: 125,600 shares. 3 month avg: 94,083 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Procter and Gamble Co (PG)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 148 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $110.91
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $107.11 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.66%
Volume: 5,929,900 shares. 3 month avg: 7,163,346 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Quaker Chemical (KWR)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 338 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $203.01
1 Month avg volatility: $4.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $189.65 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.24%
Volume: 123,500 shares. 3 month avg: 69,343 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Robert Half International (RHI)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 453 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $56.71
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.16 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.86%
Volume: 1,239,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,012,069 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/31/2019 to 06/07/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Steelcase (SCS)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 149 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $17.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.44 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.14%
Volume: 411,500 shares. 3 month avg: 708,518 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 438 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $168.89
1 Month avg volatility: $3.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $159.89 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.92%
Volume: 930,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,548,174 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 04/24/2019 to 06/13/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Werner Enterprises, Inc (WERN)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 449 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $30.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.42 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.08%
Volume: 550,200 shares. 3 month avg: 887,242 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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WEX Inc (WEX)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 45 out of 588
6/13/19 close: $203.06
1 Month avg volatility: $4.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $191.19 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 44.98%
Volume: 173,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 6/13/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.4% or -29.85 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 433 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 220 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 213 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 165/301 or 54.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 51/102 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The two red lines outline a quiet session, as if the composite was waiting for something to happen.

The red lines form a pattern called a symmetrical triangle. The first slider quiz covered symmetrical triangles.

The direction of the breakout from a symmetrical triangle is unknown until it happens, but I'm hopeful it'll be up. That's the way I'm leaning for tomorrow's open.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,877.39    
 Weekly S2  7,142.52  265.13   
 Monthly S1  7,335.06  192.54   
 Weekly S1  7,467.62  132.56   
 Weekly Pivot  7,617.32  149.70   
 Monthly Pivot  7,749.88  132.56   
 Daily S2  7,750.09  0.21   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S1  7,771.41  21.31   
 Low  7,773.97  2.56   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,791.23  17.26   
 Close  7,792.72  1.49   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  7,795.28  2.56   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,796.56  1.28   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,801.90  5.33   
 Open  7,803.13  1.23   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  7,816.60  13.47   
 High  7,819.16  2.56   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  7,840.47  21.31   
 Weekly R1  7,942.42  101.95   
 Weekly R2  8,092.12  149.70   
 Monthly R1  8,207.55  115.43   
 Monthly R2  8,622.37  414.83   

Wednesday 6/12/19. Possible Decline Coming

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The vertical green bar on the far right means the market is still bullish.

However, the thin blue indicator line has hit its peak (100) and bounce downward. That's the first sign of weakness, but not indicative of a major decline coming.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 41% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 43%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 491 stocks in my database are down an average of 21% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 21%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 34% on 12/24/2018.

The above numbers say that there was improvement from the snapshot taken a week ago. You can see that in the red line, not the blue one (which held steady).

Because the lines mirror what is happening in the indices, they really aren't indicative of anything except how weak the general market is (if the stocks in my database are a representative sample).

So the CPI shows weakness and the red line shows strength. I trust the CPI line. Just remember, the most recent signal is still bullish.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/11/19. Slider Quiz! Double Bottoms

The index climbed by 0.3% or 78.74 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1096 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 604 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 492 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 188/310 or 60.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/74 or 51.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the Adam & Adam double bottom chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  23,905.01    
 Weekly S2  24,213.15  308.14   
 Monthly S1  24,983.85  770.69   
 Weekly S1  25,137.92  154.07   
 Weekly Pivot  25,605.33  467.42   
 Monthly Pivot  25,759.40  154.07   
 Daily S2  25,952.90  193.50   
 Daily S1  26,007.79  54.89   
 Low  26,054.31  46.52   
 Close  26,062.68  8.37   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Open  26,090.22  27.54   
 Daily Pivot  26,109.20  18.98   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,114.02  4.82   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,132.46  18.45   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,150.90  18.44   
 Daily R1  26,164.09  13.19   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  26,210.61  46.52   
 Daily R2  26,265.50  54.89   
 Weekly R1  26,530.10  264.60   
 Monthly R1  26,838.24  308.14   
 Weekly R2  26,997.51  159.28   
 Monthly R2  27,613.79  616.28   

Monday 6/10/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the SP on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily chart.

Here's how the index might do over the coming week and maybe beyond.

I'm writing this on Friday night, so we may know who won the trade war with Mexico on Monday. I've said I think this is another game, fake news, by Trump. So the markets might shoot higher on Trump saying 'just kidding.' The administration is already making noises about that outlook now.

Here's another view, though. The chart shows a measured move down pattern from ABCD. Some Elliott wavers might see this as an ABC correction, which is fine.

After a measured move down ends, you'll see price drift back up to the corrective phase. That's BC on the chart. That move happened this week. The real question is, what happens next?

Elliott wavers will say a new motive wave will occur to send the index higher.

I show what might happen on the chart. The index drops. Maybe it'll be because of the trade war getting worse. My book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy spells out what is likely to happen.

The stats say there's a 67% chance the index will breakout downward. That's not a guarantee, of course. The book shows a pic of price recovering to BC in a short stair-step move (which didn't happen in this case) before heading lower. Those measured moves which breakout upward also show a stair-step move but continue higher thereafter, closing above A.

If the trade war ends, the index will just continue rising, probably to the price of A, maybe higher.

On Monday, we should have some kind of indication of how the coming days will unfold.

$ $ $

I updated the performance stats of the bullish Gartley.

$ $ $

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 4.74 points.
Tuesday: Up 512.4 points.
Wednesday: Up 207.39 points.
Thursday: Up 181.09 points.
Friday: Up 263.28 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1168.9 points or 4.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 288.95 points or 3.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 121.28 points or 4.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.7% down from the high of 26,695.96 on 04/23/2019.
     14.8% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     5.3% down from the high of 8,176.08 on 04/29/2019.
     19.9% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     2.7% down from the high of 2,954.13 on 05/01/2019.
     17.6% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/07/2019, the CPI had:

5 bearish patterns,
50 bullish patterns,
279 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 90.9%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,638  25,811  25,942  26,115  26,246 
Weekly  24,187  25,085  25,579  26,478  26,971 
Monthly  23,879  24,931  25,733  26,786  27,588 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,838  2,856  2,870  2,888  2,902 
Weekly  2,673  2,773  2,829  2,929  2,985 
Monthly  2,631  2,752  2,850  2,971  3,069 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,600  7,671  7,719  7,790  7,838 
Weekly  7,126  7,434  7,600  7,909  8,075 
Monthly  6,861  7,301  7,733  8,174  8,606 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 47.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 54.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 47.5%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 55.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 48.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 47.4%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
12Triangle, symmetrical
9Dead-cat bounce
7Triple bottom
7Head-and-shoulders top
5Pipe bottom
5Double Top, Adam and Adam
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
4Double Top, Eve and Eve
4Diamond bottom
4Falling wedge

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. IT Services
2. IT Services2. Financial Services
3. Financial Services3. Computer Software and Svcs
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
5. Healthcare Information5. Cement and Aggregates

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/7/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 19 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 594 stocks searched, or 3.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 13 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AXDXTriangle, symmetrical      03/28/201906/03/2019Medical Services
AESDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      05/09/201905/31/2019Electric Utility (East)
ATSGTriangle, descending      05/07/201906/03/2019Air Transport
AMGNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/15/201905/31/2019Biotechnology
AWITriangle, ascending      04/29/201905/31/2019Building Materials
BMITriangle, symmetrical      05/16/201905/31/2019Precision Instrument
BBWHorn bottom      05/13/201905/28/2019Retail (Special Lines)
CMCOPipe bottom      05/20/201905/28/2019Machinery
CMTLDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/27/201905/31/2019Telecom. Equipment
CLGXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      05/15/201906/03/2019Information Services
COSTBroadening top      04/17/201906/06/2019Retail Store
ELDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/13/201905/31/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
FLEXFalling wedge      04/26/201906/03/2019Electronics
FMCPipe bottom      05/20/201905/28/2019Chemical (Basic)
GMEDead-cat bounce      06/04/201906/04/2019Retail (Special Lines)
INCYTriangle, symmetrical      04/25/201906/06/2019Drug
INOVTriangle, symmetrical      04/25/201906/06/2019Healthcare Information
PPLDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      05/20/201906/03/2019Electric Utility (East)
SSYSFalling wedge      05/02/201906/03/2019Electronics
TMOTriangle, symmetrical      04/12/201906/04/2019Precision Instrument
XELBroadening wedge, ascending      04/22/201906/04/2019Electric Utility (West)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/30/2019 and 06/06/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accelerate Diagnostics Inc (AXDX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 20 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $20.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.79 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 80.78%
Volume: 102,500 shares. 3 month avg: 533,922 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/28/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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AES Corp (AES)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 212 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $16.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.73 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.29%
Volume: 9,395,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,494,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 05/09/2019 to 05/31/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 40%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

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Air Transport Services Group (ATSG)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 86 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $22.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.96 or 8.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.11%
Volume: 199,500 shares. 3 month avg: 530,657 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/07/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 475 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $174.45
1 Month avg volatility: $3.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $167.90 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.39%
Volume: 2,353,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,770,322 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/15/2019 to 05/31/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Armstrong World Industries (AWI)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 14 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $94.70
1 Month avg volatility: $1.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $90.05 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 62.69%
Volume: 234,900 shares. 3 month avg: 508,948 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 04/29/2019 to 05/31/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Badger Meter Inc. (BMI)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 354 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $55.01
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.73 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.79%
Volume: 103,400 shares. 3 month avg: 149,246 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/16/2019 to 05/31/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc (BBW)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 195 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $5.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.18 or 11.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 47.85%
Volume: 156,500 shares. 3 month avg: 99,982 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 05/13/2019 to 05/28/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Columbus McKinnon (CMCO)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 108 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $38.55
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.66 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.90%
Volume: 56,700 shares. 3 month avg: 120,960 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/20/2019 to 05/28/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Comtech Telecommunications Corp (CMTL)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 299 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $26.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.26 or 12.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.04%
Volume: 652,100 shares. 3 month avg: 255,535 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 03/27/2019 to 05/31/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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CoreLogic Inc (CLGX)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 236 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $42.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.80 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.60%
Volume: 424,300 shares. 3 month avg: 487,489 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 05/15/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 247 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $251.21
1 Month avg volatility: $4.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $260.17 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.32%
Volume: 1,484,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,225,345 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/17/2019 to 06/06/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Estee Lauder, Cos (EL)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 78 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $173.93
1 Month avg volatility: $3.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $162.83 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.69%
Volume: 1,576,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,843,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 05/13/2019 to 05/31/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Flextronics International Ltd (FLEX)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 163 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $9.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.72 or 9.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.54%
Volume: 9,536,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,241,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 04/26/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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FMC Corp. (FMC)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 401 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $79.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.50 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.49%
Volume: 1,461,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,151,138 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/20/2019 to 05/28/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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GameStop Corp (GME)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 584 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $5.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.71 or 11.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -59.35%
Volume: 13,556,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,063,175 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 06/04/2019 to 06/04/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Incyte Corp. (INCY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 80 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $79.86
1 Month avg volatility: $2.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $75.19 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.59%
Volume: 687,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,771,434 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/25/2019 to 06/06/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Inovalon Holdings Inc (INOV)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 221 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $13.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.75 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.47%
Volume: 151,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/25/2019 to 06/06/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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PPL Corporation (PPL)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 325 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $31.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.02 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.26%
Volume: 4,049,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,908,818 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 05/20/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 40%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

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Stratasys Ltd (SSYS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 240 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $22.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.90 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.88%
Volume: 268,600 shares. 3 month avg: 835,520 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 05/02/2019 to 06/03/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thermo Electron Corp (TMO)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 159 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $276.26
1 Month avg volatility: $5.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $263.65 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.45%
Volume: 1,855,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,572,766 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/12/2019 to 06/04/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Xcel Energy, Inc (XEL)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 178 out of 589
6/6/19 close: $59.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.62 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.37%
Volume: 1,628,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,202,808 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 04/22/2019 to 06/04/2019
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Thursday 6/6/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.6% or 48.36 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 490 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 304 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 186 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 164/300 or 54.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 51/102 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Not much happened in the composite today, so I drew two red lines for the fun of it.

They might portray an area which bounds support and resistance formed by prior peaks and valleys. Last Wednesday and Thursday, for example, the index bobbled up and down between the two lines.

Price gapped open lower on Friday and pulled back before heading down going into Tuesday's low. After that, we saw a nice recovery.

Notice, though, that the trajectory of the composite has rounded over. It started off steep but now it's not. That suggests the composite is gathering strength for another move. Will it be up or down? Hard to tell.

If the right of the chart mirrors the left, then the index will move sideways on Tuesday before resuming its upward move. That shares timing with the Mexico trade war coming in as fake news.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,005.41    
 Monthly S1  7,290.45  285.03   
 Weekly S2  7,326.97  36.53   
 Weekly S1  7,451.23  124.25   
 Daily S2  7,463.07  11.85   
 Low  7,498.17  35.10   
 Daily S1  7,519.28  21.11   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,533.05  13.77   
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,543.82  10.77   
 Daily Pivot  7,554.37  10.55   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,554.59  0.22   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  7,572.48  17.89   
 Close  7,575.48  3.00   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  7,585.67  10.19   
 High  7,589.47  3.80   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  7,610.58  21.11   
 Daily R2  7,645.67  35.10   
 Weekly R1  7,696.74  51.06   
 Monthly Pivot  7,733.26  36.53   
 Weekly R2  7,817.99  84.73   
 Monthly R1  8,018.30  200.30   
 Monthly R2  8,461.11  442.82   

Wednesday 6/5/19. Up Today Then What?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Today (Tuesday), the market climbed after the FED said they might lower interest rates if the trade wars continue. The market loved the idea.

And that news sent the indices climbing, including the chart pattern indicator. You can see the bullish signal (green bar) on the right side of the chart, and the thin blue indicator line below the chart.

Let me remind you that if the index tumbles, so will the CPI. The signal can disappear for up to a week. Although I think it's a lasting signal because of the cause, I could be wrong, especially if the trade war blossoms. Based on what I'm hearing from congress, the Mexico trade war is fake news, like I suggested it might be after the close on Friday (for Monday's post).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 43% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 46%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 492 stocks in my database are down an average of 21% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 22%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both the red and blue lines show improvement from a week ago, probably because of today's rally. Without it, we'd probably be looking at dismal results.

If you look back at the steep rises, you see they are mostly short lived, a few days to maybe a week. That was true before January but the rallies have lasted longer since.

I guess we'll have to see how it plays out this time.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/4/19. Slider Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.0% or 4.74 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1301 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 691 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 610 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 187/309 or 60.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/74 or 51.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the diamond top chart pattern.

$ $ $

I updated the performance statistics of rising wedge chart patterns.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  23,559.68    
 Monthly S1  24,189.73  630.05   
 Weekly S2  24,207.52  17.79   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S1  24,513.65  306.13   
 Daily S2  24,557.21  43.56   
 Low  24,680.57  123.36   
 Daily S1  24,688.50  7.93   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  24,777.84  89.35   
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,807.89  30.05   
 Daily Pivot  24,811.85  3.96   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  24,819.78  7.93   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  24,830.16  10.38   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,837.94  7.78   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 High  24,935.21  97.27   
 Daily R1  24,943.14  7.93   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  25,066.49  123.36   
 Weekly Pivot  25,115.64  49.15   
 Weekly R1  25,421.77  306.13   
 Monthly Pivot  25,439.56  17.79   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  26,023.76  584.20   
 Monthly R1  26,069.61  45.85   
 Monthly R2  27,319.44  1,249.83   

Monday 6/3/19. Market Monday: Down then Up?

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

There's nothing remarkable to see here. I put two red lines to show where the targets for the next two weeks are. You can read "Tom's Targets" at the top of this page, in the grid.

The trend is downward, but I think that's fake. Nevertheless, you nearly always go with the existing trend instead of predicting a trend change. Thus, the bottom line shows how far the index might drop in the coming two weeks.

Having said that, my gut feeling is that the Trump Mexico trade war is fake news. The June 10 deadline will be a "never mind. Just kidding" maneuver, the kind of stuff that Trump says just to change the story away from Mueller, impeachment, and McCain.

That's where the top red line comes from. The markets should rebound strongly if the tariff issue goes away, helped by good news from China, too. But that's another war story.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a lizsrd from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 237.92 points.
Wednesday: Down 222.36 points.
Thursday: Up 44.47 points.
Friday: Down 354.84 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 770.65 points or 3.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 183.86 points or 2.4%.
The S&P 500 index was down 74 points or 2.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     7.0% down from the high of 26,695.96 on 04/23/2019.
     9.6% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     8.8% down from the high of 8,176.08 on 04/29/2019.
     15.4% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     6.8% down from the high of 2,954.13 on 05/01/2019.
     12.6% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 05/31/2019, the CPI had:

46 bearish patterns,
0 bullish patterns,
195 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 0.0%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,653  24,734  24,890  24,971  25,127 
Weekly  24,206  24,510  25,114  25,419  26,022 
Monthly  23,558  24,187  25,438  26,066  27,318 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,739  2,745  2,757  2,764  2,776 
Weekly  2,691  2,722  2,781  2,812  2,871 
Monthly  2,615  2,684  2,819  2,887  3,023 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,411  7,432  7,469  7,491  7,528 
Weekly  7,286  7,370  7,532  7,615  7,777 
Monthly  6,965  7,209  7,692  7,937  8,420 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 6 weeks down 0.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 21.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 4 weeks down 1.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 22.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 4 weeks down 2.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 26.9%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
12Head-and-shoulders top
11Dead-cat bounce
10Double Top, Eve and Eve
8Double Top, Adam and Eve
8Double Top, Adam and Adam
8Triangle, symmetrical
7Diamond bottom
6Triple bottom
5Triple top
4Triangle, ascending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. IT Services1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Financial Services2. Homebuilding
3. Computer Software and Svcs3. IT Services
4. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Cement and Aggregates5. Financial Services

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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