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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 12/10/2018
24,423 34.31 0.1%
9,877 -74.62 -0.7%
755 1.98 0.3%
7,021 51.27 0.7%
2,638 4.64 0.2%
YTD
-1.2%
-6.9%
4.4%
1.7%
-1.3%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 11/28/2018
25,350 or 23,650 by 12/15/2018
10,600 or 9,650 by 12/15/2018
765 or 730 by 12/15/2018
7,350 or 6,750 by 12/15/2018
2,750 or 2,580 by 12/15/2018

Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.

June 2018 Headlines


Archives


Friday 6/29/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

I released an article on the bullish bat pattern.

$ $ $

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 613 stocks searched, or 3.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AYIHead-and-shoulders top      05/31/201806/27/2018Furn/Home Furnishings
AADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/19/201806/25/2018Aerospace/Defense
ALLFalling wedge      04/02/201806/28/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AABAScallop, descending and inverted      05/31/201806/28/2018Internet
AELTriangle, descending      05/31/201806/28/2018Insurance (Life)
CYPipe top      06/11/201806/18/2018Semiconductor
ESVPipe bottom      06/11/201806/18/2018Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
ELPipe top      06/11/201806/18/2018Toiletries/Cosmetics
FTNTPipe top      06/11/201806/18/2018Computer Software and Svcs
GSFalling wedge      05/03/201806/26/2018Securities Brokerage
HHSTriangle, symmetrical      06/04/201806/28/2018Advertising
JNJTriangle, symmetrical      05/14/201806/28/2018Medical Supplies
KFRCPipe top      06/11/201806/18/2018Human Resources
LHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      06/11/201806/25/2018Medical Services
MTRXTriangle, symmetrical      05/25/201806/28/2018Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NEPipe bottom      06/11/201806/18/2018Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
JWNTriangle, symmetrical      06/07/201806/28/2018Retail Store
POLTriangle, symmetrical      05/31/201806/28/2018Chemical (Specialty)
KWRDouble Top, Adam and Adam      06/12/201806/22/2018Chemical (Specialty)
SMTCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      06/06/201806/22/2018Semiconductor Cap Equip.
SRDXPennant      06/15/201806/28/2018Medical Supplies
WEXRectangle top      06/05/201806/28/2018Information Services

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/21/2018 and 06/28/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Acuity Brands, Inc (AYI)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 596 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $115.39
1 Month avg volatility: $3.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $125.80 or 9.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -34.44%
Volume: 1,060,600 shares. 3 month avg: 670,414 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 05/31/2018 to 06/27/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Top

Alcoa (AA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 474 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $46.47
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.38 or 8.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.74%
Volume: 2,271,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,976,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/19/2018 to 06/25/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Allstate Corp (ALL)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 495 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $91.35
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $87.51 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.76%
Volume: 1,857,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,838,948 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 04/02/2018 to 06/28/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Altaba (AABA)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 215 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $74.41
1 Month avg volatility: $1.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $78.20 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.62%
Volume: 10,846,900 shares. 3 month avg: 8,140,182 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, descending and inverted continuation pattern from 05/31/2018 to 06/28/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 38% of the time.

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American Equity Investment Life Holding (AEL)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 145 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $35.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.39 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.01%
Volume: 638,600 shares. 3 month avg: 625,883 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/31/2018 to 06/28/2018
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Cypress Semiconductor (CY)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 263 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $15.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.69 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.48%
Volume: 6,642,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,847,760 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/11/2018 to 06/18/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

ENSCO International (ESV)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 84 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $7.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.38 or 11.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.20%
Volume: 16,537,400 shares. 3 month avg: 16,303,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/11/2018 to 06/18/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Estee Lauder, Cos (EL)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 153 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $142.55
1 Month avg volatility: $2.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $150.31 or 5.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.03%
Volume: 3,745,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,843,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/11/2018 to 06/18/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Fortinet Inc (FTNT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 34 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $62.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $65.40 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 42.94%
Volume: 963,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,532,971 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/11/2018 to 06/18/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Goldman Sachs Group, The (GS)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 496 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $223.42
1 Month avg volatility: $3.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $212.76 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.30%
Volume: 3,068,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,673,269 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 05/03/2018 to 06/26/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Harte-Hanks Inc (HHS)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 94 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $11.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.20 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.58%
Volume: 10,400 shares. 3 month avg: 98,162 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/04/2018 to 06/28/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 499 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $122.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $118.03 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.68%
Volume: 5,296,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,464,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/14/2018 to 06/28/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Kforce Inc (KFRC)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 52 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $34.35
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.44 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 36.04%
Volume: 163,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/11/2018 to 06/18/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Labratory Corp of America (LH)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 152 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $179.50
1 Month avg volatility: $3.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $185.97 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.53%
Volume: 895,700 shares. 3 month avg: 674,168 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/11/2018 to 06/25/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Matrix Service Co. (MTRX)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 281 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $18.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.35 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.06%
Volume: 236,500 shares. 3 month avg: 303,508 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/25/2018 to 06/28/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Noble Corporation (NE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 37 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $6.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.60 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 39.33%
Volume: 6,510,300 shares. 3 month avg: 7,535,162 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/11/2018 to 06/18/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 184 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $52.38
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.62 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.55%
Volume: 1,299,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,612,688 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/07/2018 to 06/28/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Polyone Corp (POL)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 332 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $43.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.58 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.18%
Volume: 544,100 shares. 3 month avg: 446,563 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/31/2018 to 06/28/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Quaker Chemical (KWR)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 288 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $153.98
1 Month avg volatility: $3.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $161.82 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.12%
Volume: 29,300 shares. 3 month avg: 69,343 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/12/2018 to 06/22/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Semtech Corp (SMTC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 41 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $47.05
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $50.27 or 6.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 37.57%
Volume: 391,600 shares. 3 month avg: 510,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/06/2018 to 06/22/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Surmodics, Inc (SRDX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 9 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $55.15
1 Month avg volatility: $1.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.56 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 96.96%
Volume: 111,500 shares. 3 month avg: 37,286 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 06/15/2018 to 06/28/2018
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Top

WEX Inc (WEX)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 50 out of 606
6/28/18 close: $190.80
1 Month avg volatility: $4.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $177.67 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 35.10%
Volume: 278,200 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 06/05/2018 to 06/28/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top


Thursday 6/28/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -1.5% or -116.55 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 103 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 47 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 56 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 54.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 148/268 or 55.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/89 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index has moved lower in a stair-step type configuration. That configuration is a pattern we call a measured move down.

The first leg begins at A and ends at B. The index corrects from B to C, which is called the corrective phase. Following that, the second leg takes price down to D.

The idea behind this pattern is that the second leg will equal the first leg's drop.

That hasn't happened yet, so maybe there's more of a drop to come, about 50 points.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,056.79    
 Monthly S1  7,250.93  194.15   
 Daily S2  7,333.47  82.54   
 Daily S1  7,389.28  55.80   
 Low  7,444.17  54.89   
 Close  7,445.08  0.91   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Weekly S1  7,451.67  6.59   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Close.
 Weekly S2  7,458.27  6.59   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily Pivot  7,499.97  41.71   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,507.77  7.80   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,527.42  19.65   
 Monthly Pivot  7,528.77  1.35   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,547.07  18.30   
 Daily R1  7,555.78  8.71   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  7,586.33  30.55   
 High  7,610.67  24.34   
 Weekly R1  7,622.54  11.87   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly Pivot  7,629.14  6.59   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  7,666.47  37.34   
 Monthly R1  7,722.91  56.44   
 Weekly R2  7,800.01  77.09   
 Monthly R2  8,000.75  200.74   

Wednesday 6/27/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Last week, we saw a red line (bearish signal) occur. This week, it's still there, suggesting it's going to say. However, the vertical red line has shifted two days closer than the signal a week ago.

What does this mean?

First, it could mean we're in for continued weakness, but more likely is that it's telling us what has already happened: the market has dropped. Duh.

Look at the timing. The indicator started moving down at A even as the market continued rising. The vertical cyan line I drew on the chart shows this. It told of weakness to come.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 23%.
The fewest was 15% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 33% on 04/02/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 510 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

Both the red and blue lines on this chart are in worse shape than a week ago. The numbers above confirm this. Both charts agree, that the market is weaker today than a week ago.

My feeling is that we may have some weakness to come but we'll bounce back up again. Of course, trade politics will roil the markets and who knows what will happen.

$ $ $

I completed my analysis of another Fibonacci pattern: the bearish bat. Check upstairs. You may find one there.

I also added a rank to the time performance tables. The article shows the ranking of recently reviewed chart patterns.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/26/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -1.3% or -328.09 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 209 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 108 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 101 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 161/274 or 58.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/68 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

Upon close inspection, I saw a broadening bottom chart pattern, which I show outlined in red at A.

The index formed higher peaks and lower valleys, showing diverging price waves.

What does this mean?

According to my book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy, pictured on the right, the chart pattern breaks out upward 61% of the time.

That's not much above random (50%), but it still gives us an idea of how price might behave tomorrow.

In the absence of anything else, as I write this, I'll look for price to recover on Tuesday.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  23,479.50    
 Monthly S1  23,866.15  386.65   
 Daily S2  23,887.63  21.48   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S2  23,957.71  70.07   
 Daily S1  24,070.22  112.51   
 Low  24,084.39  14.17   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S1  24,105.25  20.86   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  24,229.30  124.04   
 Close  24,252.80  23.50   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  24,266.97  14.17   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,274.06  7.09   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,318.82  44.76   
 Daily R1  24,449.56  130.73   
 Open  24,463.73  14.17   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  24,463.73  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  24,554.18  90.45   
 Monthly Pivot  24,634.49  80.31   
 Daily R2  24,646.31  11.82   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  24,701.72  55.41   
 Monthly R1  25,021.14  319.42   
 Weekly R2  25,150.65  129.51   
 Monthly R2  25,789.48  638.83   

Monday 6/25/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

Not much happening in this picture. I drew a rectangle around price action to highlight the shape of what looks like a W. It's not a big W chart pattern because the left side (starting with the peak at A) isn't tall enough.

I suppose you can call it an Adam & Eve double bottom. The first bottom is narrow (Adam) but the second one is wider (Eve). The two bottoms are not near the same price, too, so that's a flaw. But patterns in the field are rarely perfect.

The double bottom hasn't confirmed yet, either. That means price hasn't closed above the peak between the two bottoms yet.

So, the rectangle highlights nothing. It's just squiggles on the price chart.

However, the index does represent what is happening with utility stocks. They are rebounding, at least over the last two weeks or so.

$ $ $

I released two articles on the bearish AB=CD and bullish AB=CD pattern. The articles outline how well they work at predicting the last turn in the pattern.

$ $ $

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 103.01 points.
Tuesday: Down 287.26 points.
Wednesday: Up 0 points.
Thursday: Down 238.51 points.
Friday: Up 119.19 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 509.59 points or 2.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 53.56 points or 0.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 24.78 points or 0.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     7.6% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     5.3% up from the low of 23,344.52 on 04/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     1.5% down from the high of 7,806.60 on 06/20/2018.
     16.0% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     4.1% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     8.8% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/22/2018, the CPI had:

13 bearish patterns,
15 bullish patterns,
198 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 53.6%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,454  24,518  24,590  24,654  24,727 
Weekly  24,067  24,324  24,664  24,920  25,260 
Monthly  23,589  24,085  24,744  25,240  25,899 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,746  2,750  2,757  2,762  2,769 
Weekly  2,726  2,740  2,758  2,772  2,789 
Monthly  2,626  2,691  2,741  2,805  2,856 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,643  7,668  7,704  7,729  7,764 
Weekly  7,541  7,617  7,712  7,788  7,883 
Monthly  7,139  7,416  7,611  7,888  8,083 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 15.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 34.0%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 26.9%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 38.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.0%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 30.7%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
15Pipe bottom
11Double Top, Adam and Adam
9Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
8Triangle, symmetrical
8Pipe top
7Triangle, descending
7Head-and-shoulders top
7Rising wedge
7Measured move down
5Triangle, ascending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Short ETFs1. Healthcare Information
2. Healthcare Information2. Short ETFs
3. Internet3. Internet
4. Shoe4. Shoe
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Computer Software and Svcs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/22/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 17 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 613 stocks searched, or 2.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 9 bullish chart patterns this week and 8 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AMNTriangle, ascending      05/18/201806/15/2018Human Resources
ANIKDead-cat bounce      06/20/201806/20/2018Biotechnology
AONTriangle, symmetrical      03/19/201806/19/2018Insurance (Diversified)
BAPipe top      06/04/201806/11/2018Aerospace/Defense
CELGRectangle bottom      05/24/201806/21/2018Biotechnology
CCKTriangle, ascending      05/22/201806/20/2018Packaging and Container
RERectangle bottom      05/03/201806/21/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
FLIRTriangle, ascending      05/01/201806/21/2018Aerospace/Defense
FCXPipe top      06/04/201806/11/2018Metals and Mining (Div.)
KLICTriangle, symmetrical      05/31/201806/21/2018Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MGEEPipe bottom      06/04/201806/11/2018Electric Utility (Central)
OUTRectangle top      05/04/201806/21/2018Advertising
PHMPipe top      06/04/201806/11/2018Homebuilding
RHTRising wedge      03/27/201806/20/2018Computer Software and Svcs
RLIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      06/08/201806/15/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SCCOPipe top      06/04/201806/11/2018Metals and Mining (Div.)
TZOOPipe top      06/04/201806/11/2018Internet
WATPipe top      06/04/201806/11/2018Precision Instrument

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/14/2018 and 06/21/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
AMN Healthcare (AMN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 91 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $61.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.64 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.36%
Volume: 399,300 shares. 3 month avg: 549,046 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/18/2018 to 06/15/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/04/2018. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/03/2018 and a 38% chance by 11/02/2018.
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Anika Therapeutics Inc (ANIK)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 601 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $29.73
1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.75 or 10.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -44.85%
Volume: 870,900 shares. 3 month avg: 71,871 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 06/20/2018 to 06/20/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Aon Corp (AON)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 338 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $136.55
1 Month avg volatility: $1.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $132.88 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.90%
Volume: 921,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,174,512 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/19/2018 to 06/19/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Boeing Company, The (BA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 160 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $337.66
1 Month avg volatility: $6.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $354.38 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.50%
Volume: 3,845,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,332,308 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/04/2018 to 06/11/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Celgene Corp (CELG)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 582 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $79.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $82.48 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -24.17%
Volume: 4,403,200 shares. 3 month avg: 7,439,311 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 05/24/2018 to 06/21/2018
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Crown Holdings Inc (CCK)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 565 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $44.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.76 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.71%
Volume: 2,381,300 shares. 3 month avg: 762,669 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/22/2018 to 06/20/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Everest Re Group Ltd (RE)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 256 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $228.67
1 Month avg volatility: $2.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $236.43 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.35%
Volume: 213,500 shares. 3 month avg: 566,686 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 05/03/2018 to 06/21/2018
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 145 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $54.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.24 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.30%
Volume: 824,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,165,460 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/01/2018 to 06/21/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold B (FCX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 445 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $16.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.55 or 7.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.71%
Volume: 11,635,400 shares. 3 month avg: 16,878,592 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/04/2018 to 06/11/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 378 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $24.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.45 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.36%
Volume: 535,900 shares. 3 month avg: 518,337 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/31/2018 to 06/21/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 365 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $60.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.85 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.49%
Volume: 48,600 shares. 3 month avg: 83,160 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/04/2018 to 06/11/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Outfont Media (OUT)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 518 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $19.87
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.20 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.87%
Volume: 513,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 05/04/2018 to 06/21/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 510 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $29.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.22 or 7.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -12.27%
Volume: 2,874,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,812,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/04/2018 to 06/11/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Red Hat, Inc (RHT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 58 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $165.73
1 Month avg volatility: $3.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $176.82 or 6.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 37.99%
Volume: 2,845,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,583,828 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/27/2018 to 06/20/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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RLI Corp (RLI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 136 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $67.13
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $70.50 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.67%
Volume: 172,700 shares. 3 month avg: 149,782 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/08/2018 to 06/15/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Southern Copper (SCCO)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 323 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $46.67
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.03 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.64%
Volume: 642,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/04/2018 to 06/11/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 5 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $16.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.96 or 10.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 151.94%
Volume: 93,100 shares. 3 month avg: 22,411 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/04/2018 to 06/11/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Waters Corp (WAT)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 360 out of 607
6/21/18 close: $192.99
1 Month avg volatility: $3.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $199.87 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.10%
Volume: 674,200 shares. 3 month avg: 474,158 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/04/2018 to 06/11/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thursday 6/21/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.7% or 55.92 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 407 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 252 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 155 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 61.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 148/267 or 55.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/89 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Although it's hard to see in this picture, a double top appears at A. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below the barely-visible thin red line.

It appears that the index has met the measure rule prediction of the double top. By that, I mean if you compute the height of the double top and subtract it from the breakout price, you get a target. A stock (maybe an index, too), will hit that target 72% of the time.

$ $ $

I manually started deleting posts in my facebook account and tried some things to get FB to delete my account without success. I viewed a youtube video on how to do it, but that didn't help, either. Then I read messages from people who said that pasting the password into the password box wouldn't work, because that's how FB detects robotic posts. So I manually typed in my password, filled in the case-sensitive captcha and bingo! It said it would remove my account in 2 weeks. Yippee!! I manually typed in my password multiple times before when I tried to delete the account, but either the site wasn't working properly or I botched the captcha thing. But it appears I've freed myself from facebook, a service I consider a huge waste of time as well as a privacy threat.

$ $ $

I also have multiple sources who have identified the perp who is trying to reverse engineer my free Patternz program.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,176.06    
 Monthly S1  7,478.79  302.72   
 Weekly S2  7,605.26  126.48   
 Monthly Pivot  7,623.69  18.43   
 Weekly S1  7,693.39  69.69   
 Daily S2  7,730.08  36.69   
 Weekly Pivot  7,730.99  0.92   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  7,755.48  24.49   
 Daily S1  7,755.79  0.31   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Open  7,764.15  8.36   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,775.01  10.86   
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,781.04  6.03   
 Daily Pivot  7,781.20  0.16   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  7,781.51  0.31   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,787.07  5.56   
 High  7,806.60  19.53   
 Daily R1  7,806.91  0.31   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  7,819.12  12.20   
 Daily R2  7,832.32  13.20   
 Weekly R2  7,856.72  24.41   
 Monthly R1  7,926.42  69.69   
 Monthly R2  8,071.32  144.91   

Wednesday 6/20/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Don't be alarmed by the vertical red bar on the "hard right edge" of the chart.

Signals such as this bearish one can appear or disappear for up to a week. Nevertheless, it's not a bullish sign when we have a signal change.

However, it does follow my belief that we're in for a period of weakness followed by strength. By that, I mean I expected the markets to backtrack some but resume trending upward shortly, ending the month within that uptrend. It might still occur, depending on how much Trump's tariff war rattles the markets.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 24% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 22%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 33% on 04/02/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 511 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 12%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

Both lines suffered this week from last week's snapshot at the same time. The change this week isn't as steep as I might have expected. Most of the downturn is because today (Tuesday) was a weak one. The Dow industrials dropped almost 300 points.

The only thing I notice about this chart is that the lines are turning down from a relatively high point on the chart.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/19/18. Life isn't Fun

Picture of facebook.

I logged into Facebook to delete my account and spent a half hour trying to figure out how to do it. I found all sorts of instructions in the help center about HOW deletion works, but no actual steps to delete the account.

I finally found the link to remove the page. It's simple enough. You just fill in your password and enter the captcha letters. The problem is, it doesn't work!

I show a pic of the screen. I don't see anything wrong with this. The password is correct. I know this because I typed it into notepad and pasted it into Facebook during log in. So it must be the captcha letters.

I tried over a dozen times, each with a different captcha sequence, but it still wouldn't let me in. So I changed browsers and tried again. This time, the captcha letters didn't appear. A message said to refresh the screen, which I did, multiple times, and still no luck.

So I spent another fifteen minutes trying to figure out how to send FB a message for help. That's no easy task, either. Most of what they have are help screens telling you how to do stuff, and not a link to customer service.

$ $ $

So then I logged into email and found a report of someone asking to reverse engineer my free patternz program.

Here's an email I received three days ago asking about how the program works.

I was wondering if you can you provide me with the mathematical formula your program uses to calculate each candlestick, the breakout, the breakout date, the stop, etc. I know this information is proprietary to you....

And here's today's email I received regarding a request for help to reverse engineer patternz.

I am looking for an experienced software expert to reverse engineer a Windows-based software. The name of the software is Patternz. This is a free software automatically finds chart and candlestick patterns for financial instruments (stocks), and I need to know how it works. In order words, I need to know how does it calculate the different candlestick patterns and chart pattern. I need to know the formulas that this program is using to calculate all 105 candlestick patterns, 66 unique chart patterns, Breakout, Breakout Date, Approx. Breakout Price, Approx. Target, Volatility Stop, etc.

Sounds to me like the same person, doesn't it?

I provide this website for free to anyone who wants to use it. I provide the software free. There's no registration required, no need to create a login Id or password to access any of this. And this type of crap is how I'm repaid. Wow.


Monday 6/18/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

I drew the red trendline sloping down, hoping to connect three points to make a symmetrical triangle, but the peaks wouldn't cooperate.

Instead, I saw the lopping movement from B to A. That's a throwback. In this case, the index returns to trendline support before moving higher.

The bigger picture shows a measured move up chart pattern which ends at C. The second leg is AC. I've spoken enough recently about these patterns, so let me say there's a good chance that the index will return to stop somewhere between the two horizontal blue lines (the corrective phase).

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 5.78 points.
Tuesday: Down 1.58 points.
Wednesday: Down 119.53 points.
Thursday: Down 25.89 points.
Friday: Down 84.83 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 226.05 points or 0.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 100.87 points or 1.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 0.63 points or 0.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.7% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     7.5% up from the low of 23,344.52 on 04/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     0.3% down from the high of 7,768.60 on 06/14/2018.
     16.8% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     3.2% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     9.8% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/15/2018, the CPI had:

24 bearish patterns,
25 bullish patterns,
271 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 51.0%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,802  24,946  25,039  25,183  25,275 
Weekly  24,621  24,856  25,129  25,364  25,638 
Monthly  23,759  24,425  24,914  25,580  26,069 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,754  2,767  2,775  2,788  2,796 
Weekly  2,748  2,764  2,778  2,794  2,807 
Monthly  2,635  2,707  2,749  2,822  2,864 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,684  7,715  7,735  7,767  7,787 
Weekly  7,594  7,670  7,719  7,796  7,845 
Monthly  7,164  7,455  7,612  7,903  8,060 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.6%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 34.0%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 4 weeks up 17.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 38.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 4 weeks up 20.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 30.7%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
19Measured move up
15Measured move down
15Pipe bottom
11Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
9Triangle, symmetrical
8Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Triangle, descending
6Rising wedge
6Pipe top
4Flag

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Healthcare Information1. Shoe
2. Short ETFs2. Healthcare Information
3. Internet3. Short ETFs
4. Shoe4. Internet
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/15/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 19 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 614 stocks searched, or 3.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 5 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 9 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACETFlag, high and tight      04/23/201806/12/2018Chemical (Diversified)
AONTriangle, symmetrical      03/19/201806/12/2018Insurance (Diversified)
AXSDouble Top, Eve and Adam      05/22/201806/11/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BLLBroadening wedge, descending      05/10/201806/13/2018Packaging and Container
CGNXTriangle, descending      05/14/201806/14/2018Precision Instrument
CONNPennant      06/12/201806/14/2018Retail (Special Lines)
COTYPipe bottom      05/29/201806/04/2018Toiletries/Cosmetics
HAYNPipe top      05/29/201806/04/2018Building Materials
JBHTRising wedge      05/21/201806/14/2018Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HURCPipe top      05/29/201806/04/2018Machinery
INFNPipe bottom      05/29/201806/04/2018Telecom. Equipment
IVCBroadening top      03/01/201806/14/2018Medical Supplies
KLICTriangle, symmetrical      05/31/201806/14/2018Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LNCPipe bottom      05/29/201806/04/2018Insurance (Life)
NWLPipe bottom      05/29/201806/04/2018Household Products
JWNBroadening top      03/13/201806/14/2018Retail Store
OTEXBroadening top, right-angled and descending      03/02/201806/14/2018E-Commerce
DGXFlag      06/12/201806/14/2018Medical Services
RTNTriple top      05/11/201806/08/2018Aerospace/Defense
TLRDDead-cat bounce      06/14/201806/14/2018Retail (Special Lines)
TPXPipe bottom      05/29/201806/04/2018Furn/Home Furnishings
TMOTriangle, symmetrical      02/01/201806/08/2018Precision Instrument
WATTriangle, descending      01/29/201806/08/2018Precision Instrument
BOTZTriangle, symmetrical      04/18/201806/12/2018Electronics

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/07/2018 and 06/14/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 606 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $3.82
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.14 or 17.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -63.02%
Volume: 257,300 shares. 3 month avg: 395,892 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/23/2018 to 06/12/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 04/19/2018. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 07/19/2018 and a 38% chance by 10/18/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Aon Corp (AON)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 331 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $140.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $136.37 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.63%
Volume: 802,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,174,512 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/19/2018 to 06/12/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Axis Capital Holdings Ltd (AXS)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 190 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $56.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.02 or 2.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.71%
Volume: 427,100 shares. 3 month avg: 808,385 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 05/22/2018 to 06/11/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Ball Corp (BLL)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 429 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $36.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.69 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.56%
Volume: 2,177,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,433,769 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 05/10/2018 to 06/13/2018
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Cognex (CGNX)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 587 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $45.78
1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.75 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -25.15%
Volume: 1,015,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,157,365 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/14/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Conns Inc (CONN)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 254 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $35.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.45 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.70%
Volume: 657,700 shares. 3 month avg: 567,568 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 06/12/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Coty (COTY)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 586 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $14.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.21 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.31%
Volume: 5,634,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,764,371 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/29/2018 to 06/04/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Haynes International Inc. (HAYN)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 98 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $39.67
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $42.42 or 6.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.78%
Volume: 103,200 shares. 3 month avg: 80,035 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 05/29/2018 to 06/04/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Hunt, J.B. (JBHT)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 166 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $129.65
1 Month avg volatility: $3.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $136.90 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.76%
Volume: 549,500 shares. 3 month avg: 898,451 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 05/21/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Hurco Companies Inc. (HURC)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 270 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $44.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $47.60 or 7.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.98%
Volume: 14,000 shares. 3 month avg: 26,271 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 05/29/2018 to 06/04/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 53 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $9.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.98 or 8.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 55.61%
Volume: 1,041,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,624,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/29/2018 to 06/04/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/10/2018. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/09/2018 and a 38% chance by 11/08/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 191 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $19.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.87 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.21%
Volume: 480,000 shares. 3 month avg: 553,063 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 03/01/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 413 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $23.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.03 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.53%
Volume: 556,800 shares. 3 month avg: 518,337 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/31/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Lincoln National Corp (LNC)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 499 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $68.05
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.50 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.47%
Volume: 2,435,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,171,931 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/29/2018 to 06/04/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Newell Brands Inc (NWL)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 545 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $26.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.58 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.60%
Volume: 6,486,000 shares. 3 month avg: 7,205,206 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/29/2018 to 06/04/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/25/2018. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 07/26/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 261 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $49.87
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $53.97 or 8.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.26%
Volume: 3,028,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,612,688 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 03/13/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Open Text Corp (OTEX)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 226 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $35.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.01 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.24%
Volume: 467,800 shares. 3 month avg: 520,157 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 03/02/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Quest Diagnostics (DGX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 184 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $110.94
1 Month avg volatility: $1.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $107.25 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.64%
Volume: 768,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,490,418 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 06/12/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 267 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $202.68
1 Month avg volatility: $3.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $213.12 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.89%
Volume: 2,058,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,302,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 05/11/2018 to 06/08/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 74 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $26.19
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.12 or 18.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.10%
Volume: 14,607,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,195,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 06/14/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Tempur-pedic Intl (TPX)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $50.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.55 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.92%
Volume: 1,402,200 shares. 3 month avg: 985,960 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/29/2018 to 06/04/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thermo Electron Corp (TMO)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 194 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $216.55
1 Month avg volatility: $2.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $209.31 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.05%
Volume: 997,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,572,766 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/01/2018 to 06/08/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Waters Corp (WAT)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 352 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $200.27
1 Month avg volatility: $3.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $212.62 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.66%
Volume: 2,024,800 shares. 3 month avg: 474,158 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 01/29/2018 to 06/08/2018
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Global X Robotics and Artificial Intell (BOTZ)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 362 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $23.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.91 or 2.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.31%
Volume: 1,113,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/18/2018 to 06/12/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 6/14/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -8.09 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 581 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 320 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 261 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 147/266 or 55.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/89 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The pattern shown in red is a measured move up. The first leg is inconveniently labeled A, the corrective phase is B, and the second leg is C.

Notice how the slope of A is similar to the slope of C. Also ponder how the length of A is similar to the length of B. Yes, both the slope and length of the lines could be due to the way I drew them, or it could be due to a left-wing conspiracy.

The chart pattern suggests a drop back to the corrective phase. That means the index could drop into the area between the two horizontal green lines.

Tell your neighbors...

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,844.15    
 Monthly S1  7,269.92  425.78   
 Monthly Pivot  7,483.67  213.74   
 Weekly S2  7,515.23  31.56   
 Weekly S1  7,605.46  90.24   
 Daily S2  7,648.13  42.66   
 Weekly Pivot  7,651.44  3.31   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  7,671.91  20.48   
 Low  7,686.65  14.74   
 Close  7,695.70  9.05   
 Daily Pivot  7,710.44  14.74   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,710.45  0.02   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  7,713.90  3.45   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,717.81  3.91   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,725.16  7.35   
 Daily R1  7,734.22  9.07   
 Weekly R1  7,741.67  7.45   
 High  7,748.96  7.29   
 Daily R2  7,772.75  23.79   
 Weekly R2  7,787.65  14.90   
 Monthly R1  7,909.44  121.80   
 Monthly R2  8,123.19  213.74   

Wednesday 6/13/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The unbroken string of bullish sentiment continues this week, as the chart shows. The vertical green line on the right is the most recent signal, and that triggered back in April.

Of course, other signals have appeared and disappeared over that period, but the bullish bar is the one that remains intact.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 22% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 25%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 33% on 04/02/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 511 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

Both lines show improvement over the sample taken a week ago. The more bullish tilt agrees with the prior CPI chart, too.

Maybe the indices are starting to show a recovery from their sideways move that started near the turn of this year. Is a new upward trend underway?

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/12/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.0% or 5.78 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1285 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 685 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 600 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 161/273 or 59.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/68 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

When I first saw this chart, I said, "Uh, oh."

Why?

Because I saw the index piercing the up-sloping trendline on the bottom. I drew the red two lines in this chart as thin ones so as not to obscure the drop at A.

Just because the index has pierced the trendline is not sufficient reason to think the index will tumble from here on. Rather, it's the first sign of a trend change.

If you believe in the 1-2-3 trend change method (that's my name for Victor Sperandeo's work), then it's a warning sign. But the pierce does show weakness.

I drew a second trendline, this one longer and in green. Matches the color of my eyes. Anyway, notice that the index rests on the line at A. So maybe all is not lost. The index could still turn upward.

$ $ $

I'll be closing my facebook account soon. I joined a group and then started receiving emails from a company touting products similar to the methods the group used. In other words, facebook sold my info to another company or my account was hacked. Either way, I'm going to shut it down.

$ $ $

I updated the time performance for butterflies.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  23,261.87    
 Monthly S1  24,292.09  1,030.22   
 Weekly S2  24,504.47  212.38   
 Monthly Pivot  24,809.09  304.62   
 Weekly S1  24,913.39  104.30   
 Weekly Pivot  25,119.74  206.35   
 Daily S2  25,225.82  106.08   
 Daily S1  25,274.06  48.25   
 Low  25,290.20  16.14   
 Close  25,322.31  32.11   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  25,333.22  10.91   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  25,336.67  3.45   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  25,338.45  1.78   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  25,346.52  8.07   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  25,359.80  13.29   
 Daily R1  25,386.69  26.89   
 High  25,402.83  16.14   
 Daily R2  25,451.08  48.25   
 Weekly R1  25,528.66  77.58   
 Weekly R2  25,735.01  206.35   
 Monthly R1  25,839.31  104.30   
 Monthly R2  26,356.31  517.00   

Monday 6/11/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

This is a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

What do I see when I look at the last few weeks displayed on the chart? Well, let me tell you.

I see excitement in the form of a measured move up chart pattern. That's the ABCD pattern highlighted.

AB is the first leg. BC is the corrective phase, and CD completes the pattern in the second leg.

The idea behind the pattern is that the CD move will equal the AB move, both in price and time.

What I like about this pattern is what happens next. Price often retraces back to the corrective phase. It might not, but that's the way to bet.

Want to know how many actually return to the corrective phase? Consult my Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy book, page 271, shown on the left.

Look at Figure 12.6 which details the numbers.

$ $ $

I released version 7.3 of Patternz today. I has 10 more chart patterns implemented (total of 80 now). Good stuff. And it's still free.

$ $ $

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 178.48 points.
Tuesday: Down 13.71 points.
Wednesday: Up 346.41 points.
Thursday: Up 95.02 points.
Friday: Up 75.12 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 681.32 points or 2.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 91.18 points or 1.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 44.41 points or 1.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.9% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     8.4% up from the low of 23,344.52 on 04/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     0.7% down from the high of 7,697.41 on 06/07/2018.
     15.3% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     3.3% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     9.7% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/08/2018, the CPI had:

3 bearish patterns,
44 bullish patterns,
324 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 93.6%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,109  25,213  25,269  25,373  25,429 
Weekly  24,503  24,910  25,118  25,525  25,733 
Monthly  23,260  24,288  24,807  25,835  26,354 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,758  2,769  2,774  2,784  2,790 
Weekly  2,726  2,752  2,766  2,793  2,807 
Monthly  2,560  2,670  2,725  2,834  2,889 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,573  7,609  7,631  7,668  7,690 
Weekly  7,498  7,572  7,635  7,708  7,771 
Monthly  6,827  7,236  7,467  7,876  8,106 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 44.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months up 34.0%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks up 23.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 38.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks up 27.9%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 30.7%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
41Measured move up
21Measured move down
13Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
9Pipe bottom
8Dead-cat bounce
7Triangle, symmetrical
7Double Top, Adam and Adam
5Pipe top
5Rising wedge
4Double Bottom, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Short ETFs
2. Healthcare Information2. Shoe
3. Short ETFs3. Internet
4. Internet4. Petroleum (Producing)
5. Petroleum (Producing)5. Computer Software and Svcs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/8/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

I wrote an article about my performance tests of the bearish fakey chart pattern. This is the same pattern that will appear in the next version of Patternz.

$ $ $

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 5 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 614 stocks searched, or 0.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 7 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ASNAFlag, high and tight      05/04/201806/06/2018Apparel
CBTPipe bottom      05/21/201805/29/2018Chemical (Diversified)
DHRTriangle, symmetrical      01/30/201806/07/2018Precision Instrument
EMNTriangle, ascending      04/18/201806/06/2018Chemical (Diversified)
INTCRising wedge      03/13/201806/07/2018Semiconductor
IVCPipe bottom      05/21/201805/29/2018Medical Supplies
MDCADouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/14/201806/01/2018Advertising
MURPipe bottom      05/21/201805/29/2018Petroleum (Integrated)
NTAPPipe bottom      05/21/201805/29/2018Computers and Peripherals
OXYPipe bottom      05/21/201805/29/2018Petroleum (Producing)
ROSTPipe bottom      05/21/201805/29/2018Retail (Special Lines)
TUESPipe bottom      05/21/201805/29/2018Retail Store

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/31/2018 and 06/07/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 8 out of 607
6/7/18 close: $3.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.30 or 16.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 68.51%
Volume: 2,142,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 05/04/2018 to 06/06/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Cabot Corp. (CBT)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 271 out of 607
6/7/18 close: $63.73
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.13 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.47%
Volume: 589,100 shares. 3 month avg: 325,852 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/21/2018 to 05/29/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Danaher Corp (DHR)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 240 out of 607
6/7/18 close: $102.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $99.53 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.43%
Volume: 2,219,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,378,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/30/2018 to 06/07/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Eastman Chemical (EMN)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 138 out of 607
6/7/18 close: $108.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $104.64 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.90%
Volume: 899,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,209,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 04/18/2018 to 06/06/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Intel Corporation (INTC)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 88 out of 607
6/7/18 close: $55.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.98 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.06%
Volume: 27,494,100 shares. 3 month avg: 27,019,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/13/2018 to 06/07/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 302 out of 607
6/7/18 close: $17.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.50 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.53%
Volume: 198,700 shares. 3 month avg: 553,063 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/21/2018 to 05/29/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MDC Pateners Inc (MDCA)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 605 out of 607
6/7/18 close: $4.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.94 or 15.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -52.31%
Volume: 319,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 05/14/2018 to 06/01/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/10/2018. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/09/2018 and a 38% chance by 11/08/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 164 out of 607
6/7/18 close: $33.57
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.27 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.63%
Volume: 2,336,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,218,335 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/21/2018 to 05/29/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Network Appliance (NTAP)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 83 out of 607
6/7/18 close: $74.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $69.50 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.77%
Volume: 3,414,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,986,022 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/21/2018 to 05/29/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 109 out of 607
6/7/18 close: $86.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $82.73 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.40%
Volume: 7,059,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,088,786 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/21/2018 to 05/29/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Ross Stores (ROST)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 239 out of 607
6/7/18 close: $85.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.30 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.03%
Volume: 2,993,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,750,108 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/21/2018 to 05/29/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Tuesday Morning Corp (TUES)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 298 out of 607
6/7/18 close: $2.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.54 or 10.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.64%
Volume: 209,300 shares. 3 month avg: 391,566 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/21/2018 to 05/29/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 6/7/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.7% or 51.38 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 406 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 252 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 154 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 147/265 or 55.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/89 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This pic is eerily similar to one I wrote about three weeks ago, or so I thought until I checked. So forget that notion.

The red lines surround a rising wedge pattern. That pattern follows a rising price trend, with trendlines that converge.

It's hard to see but the index appears to have pierced the top of the wedge. I don't know if price has closed above the top (an upward breakout), but that's unusual for a rising wedge. The target is the bottom of the wedge.

$ $ $

I wrote an article about my performance tests of the bullish fakey chart pattern. This is the same pattern that will appear in the next version of Patternz.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,846.35    
 Monthly S1  7,267.79  421.45   
 Weekly S2  7,330.55  62.75   
 Monthly Pivot  7,412.59  82.04   
 Weekly S1  7,509.89  97.31   
 Weekly Pivot  7,533.64  23.74   
 Daily S2  7,598.39  64.76   
 Low  7,622.31  23.92   
 Daily S1  7,643.82  21.51   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,648.80  4.98   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  7,652.80  4.00   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,656.98  4.18   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,665.16  8.18   
 Daily Pivot  7,667.73  2.57   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  7,689.24  21.51   
 High  7,691.65  2.41   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  7,712.98  21.33   
 Daily R1  7,713.16  0.17   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  7,736.73  23.57   
 Daily R2  7,737.07  0.35   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  7,834.03  96.96   
 Monthly R2  7,978.83  144.79   

Wednesday 6/6/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Here's the deal: Star Trek Voyager is on in less than 10 minutes. Janeway did a deal with the Borg to develop a virus to kill species 8472.

It's a good episode and I don't want to miss it. So you can read these charts and figure out what they mean. Right?

Good luck.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 27%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 33% on 04/02/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 513 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/5/18. 2018 Forecast

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

This is the forecast for 2018, updated as of the close yesterday. I show the forecast (red line) plotted against the Dow industrials.

This is not my guess of what will happen this year. Rather, it's a mathematical average of all years since the start of data ending in 8. The thinking is that the indices have a 10-year cycle, so if we average each year ending in 8, we can see how the Dow will behave for that year and future years.

This method worked almost exactly in 2016.

This year? Not so good as the chart shows. We've a lot of catching up to do, or just move sideways until September.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Monday 6/4/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I connected the lows with a horizontal line. It's not a very good support line because price only touches it twice and not the three (or more) times I like to see.

The top trendline does better, as far as touches go. Even so, the peak in mid March is a smidgen below the line. But it looks close enough for government work, as they say.

Together, the two lines form a descending triangle.

What's interesting about this pattern is what happens at A. It's a throwback.

That happens after an upward breakout. Price retraces for a time, often returning to the breakout price before resuming the upward trend. And that's what I expect will happen: Price will rise, maybe make a good push higher in the coming days.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 391.64 points.
Wednesday: Up 306.33 points.
Thursday: Down 251.94 points.
Friday: Up 219.37 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 117.88 points or 0.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 120.48 points or 1.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 13.29 points or 0.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     7.4% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     5.5% up from the low of 23,344.52 on 04/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     1.1% down from the high of 7,637.27 on 03/13/2018.
     13.9% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     4.8% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     8.0% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/01/2018, the CPI had:

4 bearish patterns,
23 bullish patterns,
225 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 85.2%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,485  24,560  24,617  24,692  24,748 
Weekly  24,066  24,351  24,533  24,817  24,999 
Monthly  22,862  23,749  24,418  25,304  25,973 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,712  2,723  2,730  2,741  2,748 
Weekly  2,656  2,695  2,716  2,755  2,776 
Monthly  2,543  2,639  2,690  2,786  2,838 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,463  7,509  7,533  7,579  7,603 
Weekly  7,286  7,420  7,489  7,623  7,692 
Monthly  6,801  7,178  7,368  7,744  7,934 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.7%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 34.0%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 32.5%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 38.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 34.0%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 30.7%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
58Measured move up
41Measured move down
16Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
12Dead-cat bounce
10Triangle, symmetrical
7Pipe bottom
7Double Top, Adam and Adam
5Rising wedge
4Triple bottom
4Triangle, descending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Short ETFs1. Short ETFs
2. Shoe2. Shoe
3. Internet3. Petroleum (Producing)
4. Petroleum (Producing)4. Internet
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/1/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 616 stocks searched, or 2.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ATSGMeasured move down      04/05/201805/25/2018Air Transport
AAPLTriangle, symmetrical      05/08/201805/30/2018Computers and Peripherals
BGTriangle, descending      05/07/201805/31/2018Food Processing
CHSDead-cat bounce      05/30/201805/30/2018Apparel
CBKDead-cat bounce      05/31/201805/31/2018Retail (Special Lines)
CIENMeasured move down      03/13/201805/29/2018Telecom. Equipment
CLNEFlag, high and tight      04/03/201805/31/2018Natural Gas (Distributor)
JNJMeasured move down      03/14/201805/29/2018Medical Supplies
LAWSTriangle, symmetrical      05/07/201805/31/2018Metal Fabricating
MDSODouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/15/201805/29/2018Healthcare Information
MSFTRising wedge      04/25/201805/31/2018Computer Software and Svcs
MYLMeasured move down      04/10/201805/29/2018Drug
PGRRising wedge      04/17/201805/31/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
RGAMeasured move down      03/21/201805/29/2018Insurance (Life)
AMTDMeasured move down      04/23/201805/29/2018Securities Brokerage
TKRDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/22/201805/29/2018Metal Fabricating

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/24/2018 and 05/31/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Air Transport Services Group (ATSG)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 488 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $21.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.40 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.25%
Volume: 323,600 shares. 3 month avg: 530,657 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move down from 04/05/2018 to 05/25/2018

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Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 195 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $186.87
1 Month avg volatility: $2.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $180.93 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.42%
Volume: 26,957,700 shares. 3 month avg: 27,687,312 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/08/2018 to 05/30/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Bunge Ltd (BG)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 276 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $69.55
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $72.68 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.68%
Volume: 1,602,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,268,517 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/07/2018 to 05/31/2018
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Chicos FAS Inc. (CHS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 399 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $8.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.30 or 10.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.08%
Volume: 5,863,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,783,222 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/30/2018 to 05/30/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Christopher and Banks Corp (CBK)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 598 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $0.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.01 or 20.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -33.86%
Volume: 2,007,700 shares. 3 month avg: 129,642 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/31/2018 to 05/31/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Ciena Corp (CIEN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 223 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $23.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.76 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.13%
Volume: 10,167,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,226,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move down from 03/13/2018 to 05/29/2018

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Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 26 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $3.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.74 or 13.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 55.67%
Volume: 8,583,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,160 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2018 to 05/31/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 528 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $119.62
1 Month avg volatility: $1.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $115.88 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.39%
Volume: 9,961,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,464,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move down from 03/14/2018 to 05/29/2018

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Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 414 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $24.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.74 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.75%
Volume: 4,600 shares. 3 month avg: 10,786 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/07/2018 to 05/31/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Medidata Solutions (MDSO)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 111 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $77.16
1 Month avg volatility: $1.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $73.27 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.76%
Volume: 472,400 shares. 3 month avg: 565,226 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/15/2018 to 05/29/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 113 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $98.84
1 Month avg volatility: $1.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $103.11 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.55%
Volume: 32,983,000 shares. 3 month avg: 21,460,729 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 04/25/2018 to 05/31/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Mylan Laboratories Inc. (MYL)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 282 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $38.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.13 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.10%
Volume: 7,123,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,554,668 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move down from 04/10/2018 to 05/29/2018

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Progressive Corp (PGR)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 116 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $62.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $64.92 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.25%
Volume: 6,499,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,017,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 04/17/2018 to 05/31/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Reinsurance Group of America (RGA)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 457 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $149.44
1 Month avg volatility: $2.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $144.18 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.16%
Volume: 519,500 shares. 3 month avg: 326,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move down from 03/21/2018 to 05/29/2018

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TD AmeriTrade Holding A (AMTD)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 133 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $59.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.78 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.78%
Volume: 2,517,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,043,012 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move down from 04/23/2018 to 05/29/2018

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Timken Co., The (TKR)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 402 out of 608
5/31/18 close: $47.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $52.24 or 10.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.76%
Volume: 910,400 shares. 3 month avg: 853,643 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/22/2018 to 05/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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