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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Chart Patterns: After the Buy
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 08/17/2017
21,751 -274.14 -1.2%
9,152 -224.77 -2.4%
734 -5.20 -0.7%
6,222 -123.20 -1.9%
2,430 -38.10 -1.5%
YTD
10.1%
1.2%
11.3%
15.6%
8.5%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 08/14/2017
22,250 or 21,500 by 09/01/2017
9,700 or 8,900 by 09/01/2017
750 or 710 by 09/01/2017
6,500 or 6,150 by 09/01/2017
2,525 or 2,425 by 09/01/2017

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June 2017 Headlines


Archives


Friday 6/30/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 9 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 602 stocks searched, or 1.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADTNTriangle, symmetrical      04/13/201706/29/2017Telecom. Equipment
ARRSBroadening top      06/02/201706/29/2017Telecom. Equipment
COPPipe top      06/12/201706/19/2017Petroleum (Integrated)
XRAYTriangle, symmetrical      05/08/201706/26/2017Medical Supplies
GSOLFalling wedge      05/31/201706/29/2017Advertising
MCHXTriangle, symmetrical      05/15/201706/28/2017Advertising
MRKBroadening top      05/11/201706/26/2017Drug
NWPXRising wedge      05/12/201706/23/2017Building Materials
YUMEDead-cat bounce      06/29/201706/29/2017Advertising

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/22/2017 and 06/29/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 472 out of 594
6/29/17 close: $20.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.47 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.72%
Volume: 283,000 shares. 3 month avg: 358,552 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/13/2017 to 06/29/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Arris Group Inc. (ARRS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 446 out of 594
6/29/17 close: $28.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.04 or 10.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.37%
Volume: 3,242,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,640,166 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/02/2017 to 06/29/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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ConocoPhillips (COP)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 495 out of 594
6/29/17 close: $44.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.43 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -12.09%
Volume: 8,203,500 shares. 3 month avg: 8,568,722 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/12/2017 to 06/19/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Dentsply International, Inc. (XRAY)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 237 out of 594
6/29/17 close: $64.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.34 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.78%
Volume: 1,167,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,195,591 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/08/2017 to 06/26/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Global Sources Ltd (GSOL)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 1 out of 594
6/29/17 close: $19.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.20 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 125.42%
Volume: 58,800 shares. 3 month avg: 48,155 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 05/31/2017 to 06/29/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Marchex, Inc (MCHX)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 248 out of 594
6/29/17 close: $2.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.72 or 8.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.08%
Volume: 157,200 shares. 3 month avg: 175,934 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/15/2017 to 06/28/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Merck and Co., Inc. (MRK)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 280 out of 594
6/29/17 close: $64.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $66.64 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.29%
Volume: 8,249,400 shares. 3 month avg: 8,965,303 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/11/2017 to 06/26/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Northwest Pipe Co (NWPX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 431 out of 594
6/29/17 close: $17.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.49 or 8.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.10%
Volume: 74,900 shares. 3 month avg: 71,082 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 05/12/2017 to 06/23/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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YuMe Inc (YUME)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 59 out of 594
6/29/17 close: $4.62
1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.28 or 14.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 29.05%
Volume: 271,800 shares. 3 month avg: 128,545 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 06/29/2017 to 06/29/2017
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Thursday 6/29/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.4% or 87.79 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 93 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 53 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 40 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 132/228 or 57.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/82 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew a long-term (relative to intraday scale) trendline, upsloping, shown here in red. The index plunged through that trendline yesterday (Tuesday).

That plunge took on the shape of a measured move down. I show that as the ABCD pattern.

The pattern's theory is that the CD move will equal both in time and price, the AB move.

My book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy, says that the pattern sports a downward breakout 67% of the time (that means a close below D is more likely than a close above A).

However, I use the pattern because I know there's a 77% chance price will rise into the corrective phase (BC area). That's what the book says and the number is based on research. And that's what happened today (E).

And yes, if you click on the picture of the book, you can buy it at Amazon.com and catch up with information other buyers of my books know. And don't forget to buy a copy of Bumper's Story I'll use the buck or two I get from each sale to help brace myself for the massive jump in my health insurance premiums next year. I'm already paying $11,300/year for a bronze plan. Ouch.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,943.98    
 Monthly S1  6,089.19  145.22   
 Daily S2  6,112.34  23.15   
 Low  6,144.80  32.46   
 Weekly S2  6,147.81  3.01   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Low.
 Open  6,173.10  25.29   
 Daily S1  6,173.38  0.28   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  6,180.51  7.14   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S1  6,191.11  10.60   
 50% Down from Intraday High  6,191.54  0.44   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  6,202.58  11.03   
 Daily Pivot  6,205.83  3.26   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  6,215.45  9.61   
 Weekly Pivot  6,230.24  14.79   
 Close  6,234.41  4.17   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  6,238.29  3.88   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  6,266.87  28.58   
 Weekly R1  6,273.54  6.67   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  6,299.32  25.78   
 Weekly R2  6,312.67  13.35   
 Monthly R1  6,360.66  47.99   
 Monthly R2  6,486.92  126.25   

Wednesday 6/28/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator has turned bearish, as the red line on the far right shows.

Notice the thin blue indicator line. It's trending lower, too. According to my market predictions, the Dow industrials should continue strong until about the third week in July and then start heading down into August, in time for another move up.

We'll have to see if this (chart, above) is just a short term dip or if the July weakness has come early.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 23%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 41% on 06/28/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 504 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 21% on 06/28/2016.

This chart, for the third week in a row, shows no net change.

$ $ $

Patternz: I gave up on yahoo quotes. They return quote information but some of it is split adjusted and some of it is dividend adjusted. Trying to figure how to straighten out the mess up is taking too much time. So I'll be adding a few new quote providers that will replace yahoo and give better results. Or so they claim.

And my book, Bumper's Story is still not making enough sales to make it to the New York Time's best seller list. But ya'll can change that by buying a few copies.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/27/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.1% or 14.79 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1308 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 673 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 635 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 139/237 or 58.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/64 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index shows a double bottom at AB. This confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the horizontal line at C.

If you look at the height of the double bottom from A (the lower of the two bottoms) to C, and add it to C, you can get an estimate on how far price might rise.

That's helpful for day traders. It hits or comes close at D before pulling back to E.

On paper it looks good, doesn't it?

The problem comes when you apply theory to reality. You'd place a buy stop a penny above C and that would trigger well above C on the open. That would give you less profit opportunity, especially if you should below the high (target), D. .

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  20,363.57    
 Monthly S1  20,886.56  522.99   
 Monthly Pivot  21,210.93  324.37   
 Weekly S2  21,224.84  13.91   
 Daily S2  21,307.38  82.54   
 Weekly S1  21,317.19  9.82   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  21,358.46  41.27   
 Low  21,381.25  22.79   
 Close  21,409.55  28.30   
 Weekly Pivot  21,426.25  16.70   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  21,428.98  2.74   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  21,432.34  3.35   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  21,434.68  2.34   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  21,443.73  9.05   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  21,458.47  14.74   
 Daily R1  21,483.42  24.95   
 High  21,506.21  22.79   
 Weekly R1  21,518.60  12.39   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  21,557.30  38.69   
 Weekly R2  21,627.66  70.36   
 Monthly R1  21,733.92  106.26   
 Monthly R2  22,058.29  324.37   

Monday 6/26/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the s and p 500 index on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

I drew channel lines to highlight the current and past trends.

Look first at the green line.

The index came close to or touched the line multiple times since January. Trendline research suggests it's an important trendline.

If the index were to drop to the green line, it might find support there.

A narrower channel I highlight in red. The top red trendline is longer and is a more difficult resistance line to pierce.

The bottom red line is shorter and weaker than the top trendline. Notice at A a similar situation developed. See how the index plunged to the green line after breaking out of the congestion region.

That kind of a drop could happen this time, sending the index down to touch the green line again.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 144.71 points.
Tuesday: Down 61.85 points.
Wednesday: Down 57.11 points.
Thursday: Down 12.74 points.
Friday: Down 2.53 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 10.48 points or 0.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 113.49 points or 1.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 5.15 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.7% down from the high of 21,535.30 on 06/20/2017.
     8.7% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     1.2% down from the high of 6,341.70 on 06/09/2017.
     16.1% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     0.6% down from the high of 2,453.82 on 06/19/2017.
     8.6% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/23/2017, the CPI had:

18 bearish patterns,
32 bullish patterns,
390 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 64.0%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  21,296  21,345  21,383  21,433  21,471 
Weekly  21,220  21,307  21,421  21,509  21,623 
Monthly  20,359  20,877  21,206  21,724  22,053 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,427  2,432  2,437  2,443  2,447 
Weekly  2,418  2,428  2,441  2,451  2,464 
Monthly  2,337  2,388  2,421  2,471  2,504 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  6,201  6,233  6,251  6,283  6,302 
Weekly  6,158  6,212  6,241  6,294  6,323 
Monthly  5,954  6,110  6,226  6,381  6,497 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 5 weeks up 12.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 30.7%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 31.4%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 37.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 45.5%   Expect a random direction. 
 8 months up 3.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
17Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
12Triangle, symmetrical
10Pipe bottom
9Head-and-shoulders bottom
8Pipe top
8Triangle, ascending
5Triple bottom
4Head-and-shoulders top
4Broadening bottom
3Broadening top, right-angled and ascending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Medical Supplies1. Medical Supplies
2. Medical Services2. Medical Services
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Internet4. Semiconductor
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Precision Instrument
50. Short ETFs50. Retail Store
51. Retail Store51. Petroleum (Integrated)
52. Petroleum (Integrated)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Retail (Special Lines)53. Apparel
54. Natural Gas (Diversified)54. Retail (Special Lines)
55. Furn/Home Furnishings55. Furn/Home Furnishings
56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
57. Petroleum (Producing)57. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/23/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 13 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 602 stocks searched, or 2.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 8 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AXDXPipe bottom      06/05/201706/12/2017Medical Services
APDTriangle, symmetrical      05/05/201706/21/2017Chemical (Diversified)
ARWTriangle, ascending      05/08/201706/22/2017Electronics
CDNSTriangle, symmetrical      06/12/201706/22/2017Computer Software and Svcs
CALHorn top      05/30/201706/12/2017Shoe
CENXPipe top      06/05/201706/12/2017Metals and Mining (Div.)
CMCOPipe top      06/05/201706/12/2017Machinery
CRHBroadening bottom      05/23/201706/22/2017Cement and Aggregates
WIRETriangle, symmetrical      06/02/201706/19/2017Metals and Mining (Div.)
GPSBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      05/26/201706/22/2017Apparel
HAYNPipe top      06/05/201706/12/2017Building Materials
NTGRPipe top      06/05/201706/12/2017Telecom. Equipment
SCCOPipe top      06/05/201706/12/2017Metals and Mining (Div.)
TGPipe top      06/05/201706/12/2017Chemical (Specialty)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/15/2017 and 06/22/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accelerate Diagnostics Inc (AXDX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 29 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $30.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.75 or 11.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 46.02%
Volume: 434,700 shares. 3 month avg: 312,229 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/05/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 399 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $144.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $139.95 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.30%
Volume: 1,008,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,272,891 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/05/2017 to 06/21/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Arrow Electronics (ARW)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 283 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $77.54
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.50 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.75%
Volume: 245,300 shares. 3 month avg: 477,566 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/08/2017 to 06/22/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 42 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $34.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.84 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 35.92%
Volume: 1,032,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,201,863 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/12/2017 to 06/22/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Caleres (CAL)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 542 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $25.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $27.48 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -21.57%
Volume: 307,300 shares. 3 month avg: 363,828 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 05/30/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 7%.
Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 16 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $13.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.63 or 12.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 61.92%
Volume: 1,741,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,157,232 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/05/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Columbus McKinnon (CMCO)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 396 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $26.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28.68 or 9.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.18%
Volume: 55,900 shares. 3 month avg: 119,032 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/05/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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CRH plc (CRH)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 279 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $35.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.98 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.39%
Volume: 421,400 shares. 3 month avg: 535,218 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 05/23/2017 to 06/22/2017
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Encore Wire Corp (WIRE)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 435 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $41.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.47 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.34%
Volume: 42,000 shares. 3 month avg: 69,194 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/02/2017 to 06/19/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Gap Inc. (GPS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 444 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $22.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.35 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.87%
Volume: 4,430,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,989,377 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 05/26/2017 to 06/22/2017
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Haynes International Inc. (HAYN)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 527 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $35.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $40.37 or 13.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -17.52%
Volume: 49,800 shares. 3 month avg: 90,006 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/05/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Netgear Inc. (NTGR)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 525 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $43.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.83 or 8.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.42%
Volume: 278,600 shares. 3 month avg: 501,391 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/05/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Southern Copper (SCCO)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 304 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $34.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.08 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.67%
Volume: 570,400 shares. 3 month avg: 791,085 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/05/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Tredegar Corp (TG)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 569 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $15.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.86 or 11.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -37.08%
Volume: 54,900 shares. 3 month avg: 79,658 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/05/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thursday 6/22/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.7% or 45.92 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 397 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 247 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 150 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 131/227 or 57.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/82 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The red line shows overhead resistance and how the index has bumped up against it time and again.

If price mirrors work this time, then look for the index to follow the green line.

Price should dip to mirror the drop at B and then rise to reflect the move to A.

I'm not sure I believe the path will come true, but it helps with planning a trade.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,845.93    
 Monthly S1  6,039.94  194.01   
 Weekly S2  6,063.43  23.49   
 Weekly S1  6,148.69  85.26   
 Daily S2  6,188.02  39.33   
 Monthly Pivot  6,190.82  2.80   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Weekly Pivot  6,193.11  2.29   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Low  6,200.86  7.75   
 Open  6,202.75  1.89   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  6,210.99  8.24   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  6,214.54  3.55   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  6,218.76  4.22   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  6,222.98  4.22   
 Daily Pivot  6,223.82  0.84   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  6,233.95  10.13   
 High  6,236.66  2.71   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  6,246.79  10.13   
 Daily R2  6,259.62  12.84   
 Weekly R1  6,278.37  18.75   
 Weekly R2  6,322.79  44.42   
 Monthly R1  6,384.83  62.04   
 Monthly R2  6,535.71  150.88   

Wednesday 6/21/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Notice the vertical red line on the far right of the chart. It's a bearish signal which appeared today.

But it could be gone tomorrow (because signals can change for up to a week). Nevertheless, it's still bearish.

Also notice that the thin blue indicator line near the bottom of the chart has been trending lower since the start of June (even as the index has climbed). That, too, is bearish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 23%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 45% on 06/27/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 504 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 22% on 06/27/2016.

Like last week, this chart shows no net change for the past week. Both blue and red lines are the same as they were last week, even if they wiggled some in the meantime.

I am inclined to believe the bearish CPI chart even though I thought the indices were moving to new highs. Perhaps I was wrong, but tomorrow (Wednesday) may tell us the direction the indices will take going forward.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/20/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.7% or 144.71 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 651 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 359 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 292 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 139/236 or 58.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/64 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index made a flag pattern. However this one is unusual. Why?

Because it slopes upward as the two red lines show. Most of the time, a flag or pennant will slope against the prevailing price trend (downward in this case because the trend is upward).

I found this note on this website: "Performance suffers when the flag slopes in the direction of the prevailing price trend." So that means to expect underperformance from this flag.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  20,319.62    
 Monthly S1  20,924.30  604.69   
 Monthly Pivot  21,158.14  233.83   
 Weekly S2  21,163.22  5.08   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly S1  21,346.10  182.89   
 Weekly Pivot  21,369.04  22.93   
 Daily S2  21,405.11  36.07   
 Low  21,436.08  30.97   
 Open  21,444.75  8.67   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  21,467.05  22.30   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  21,471.57  4.52   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  21,482.54  10.96   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  21,493.50  10.96   
 Daily Pivot  21,498.02  4.52   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  21,528.99  30.97   
 High  21,528.99  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  21,551.92  22.93   
 Daily R1  21,559.96  8.04   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  21,574.86  14.90   
 Daily R2  21,590.93  16.07   
 Monthly R1  21,762.82  171.89   
 Monthly R2  21,996.66  233.83   

Monday 6/19/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I draw an up-sloping trendline along the valleys of the index.

You'll notice that the index hasn't dropped far enough to touch point A. That suggests there's more downside to come. However the index turned before it reached the trendline at the May bottom. Hmm.

I pondered where the index would be in two week's time on the 15th for the setting of Tom's Targets (near top of page).

My thinking at the time was that the index would recover over the next two weeks, reaching back up to the June peak.

I still think that's possible and even likely. As always, I can be wrong, so keep that in mind.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 36.3 points.
Tuesday: Up 92.8 points.
Wednesday: Up 46.09 points.
Thursday: Down 14.66 points.
Friday: Up 24.38 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 112.31 points or 0.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 56.16 points or 0.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 1.38 points or 0.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.0% down from the high of 21,391.97 on 06/14/2017.
     8.7% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     3.0% down from the high of 6,341.70 on 06/09/2017.
     14.0% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     0.5% down from the high of 2,446.20 on 06/09/2017.
     8.4% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/16/2017, the CPI had:

19 bearish patterns,
15 bullish patterns,
253 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 44.1%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  21,282  21,333  21,359  21,410  21,435 
Weekly  21,115  21,250  21,321  21,455  21,527 
Monthly  20,271  20,828  21,110  21,666  21,948 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,419  2,426  2,430  2,437  2,440 
Weekly  2,407  2,420  2,432  2,445  2,457 
Monthly  2,317  2,375  2,411  2,469  2,504 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  6,110  6,131  6,146  6,167  6,182 
Weekly  6,036  6,094  6,166  6,224  6,295 
Monthly  5,819  5,985  6,163  6,330  6,508 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 4 weeks up 17.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 30.7%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.5%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months up 37.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 16.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 26.1%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
24Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
15Pipe bottom
10Triangle, symmetrical
9Triangle, ascending
9Triple bottom
9Head-and-shoulders bottom
3Broadening top, right-angled and ascending
3Double Top, Adam and Adam
3Triangle, descending
3Pipe top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Medical Supplies1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Medical Services2. Medical Supplies
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.3. Semiconductor
4. Semiconductor4. Medical Services
5. Precision Instrument5. Precision Instrument
50. Retail Store50. Petroleum (Integrated)
51. Petroleum (Integrated)51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Retail (Special Lines)
53. Apparel53. Natural Gas (Diversified)
54. Retail (Special Lines)54. Apparel
55. Furn/Home Furnishings55. Furn/Home Furnishings
56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
57. Petroleum (Producing)57. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/16/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 15 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 602 stocks searched, or 2.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 5 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ASHHead-and-shoulders top      05/25/201706/09/2017Chemical (Basic)
BMYBroadening wedge, descending      05/08/201706/14/2017Drug
COGPipe bottom      06/05/201706/05/2017Natural Gas (Diversified)
CFPipe bottom      05/30/201706/05/2017Chemical (Basic)
CTSTriangle, symmetrical      03/17/201706/13/2017Electronics
FLIRPipe top      05/30/201706/05/2017Aerospace/Defense
HTLDBroadening bottom      03/16/201706/12/2017Trucking/Transp. Leasing
ILMNPipe top      05/30/201706/05/2017Biotechnology
IPIPipe bottom      05/30/201706/05/2017Chemical (Diversified)
KTriangle, ascending      04/18/201706/13/2017Food Processing
LENTriangle, symmetrical      05/18/201706/09/2017Homebuilding
LTriangle, ascending      03/02/201706/14/2017Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
NBLPipe bottom      05/30/201706/05/2017Petroleum (Producing)
PAYXHead-and-shoulders bottom      04/17/201706/12/2017IT Services
PFEBroadening bottom      05/18/201706/12/2017Drug
RLITriangle, symmetrical      04/19/201706/14/2017Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
RESPipe bottom      05/30/201706/05/2017Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TXTTriangle, symmetrical      05/11/201706/15/2017Diversified Co.
DDMRising wedge      05/16/201706/15/2017Long ETFs
IATBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      03/27/201706/12/2017Long ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/08/2017 and 06/15/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Ashland Inc. (ASH)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 578 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $65.91
1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.84 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -39.69%
Volume: 1,080,700 shares. 3 month avg: 937,389 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 05/25/2017 to 06/09/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 449 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $54.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.33 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.12%
Volume: 5,679,100 shares. 3 month avg: 8,640,994 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 05/08/2017 to 06/14/2017
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Cabot Oil and Gas A (COG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 370 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $23.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.71 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.09%
Volume: 7,863,800 shares. 3 month avg: 6,567,002 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/05/2017 to 06/05/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 433 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $26.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.75 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.03%
Volume: 3,487,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,661,818 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/30/2017 to 06/05/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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CTS Corp (CTS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 463 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $21.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.25 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.13%
Volume: 54,000 shares. 3 month avg: 81,709 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/17/2017 to 06/13/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 404 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $35.68
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.20 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.41%
Volume: 812,900 shares. 3 month avg: 778,854 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 05/30/2017 to 06/05/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Heartland Express, Inc (HTLD)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 405 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $20.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.79 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.31%
Volume: 203,000 shares. 3 month avg: 467,711 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 03/16/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Illumina Inc (ILMN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 25 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $172.04
1 Month avg volatility: $3.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $179.08 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 34.36%
Volume: 781,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,010,194 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 05/30/2017 to 06/05/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 326 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $2.23
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.85 or 16.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.21%
Volume: 1,475,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,657,757 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/30/2017 to 06/05/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Kellogg Co (K)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 391 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $73.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.23 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.83%
Volume: 1,661,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,363,382 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 04/18/2017 to 06/13/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Lennar Corp. Cl A (LEN)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 102 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $53.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.95 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.69%
Volume: 2,104,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,035,426 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/18/2017 to 06/09/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Loews Corp (L)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 379 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $48.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.61 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.61%
Volume: 1,052,300 shares. 3 month avg: 872,745 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/02/2017 to 06/14/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Noble Energy Inc. (NBL)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 550 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $29.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.10 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.91%
Volume: 7,706,700 shares. 3 month avg: 6,018,040 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/30/2017 to 06/05/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Paychex Inc (PAYX)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 388 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $60.73
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.32 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.25%
Volume: 1,761,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,921,648 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 04/17/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 392 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $32.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.79 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.02%
Volume: 18,904,500 shares. 3 month avg: 21,637,715 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 05/18/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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RLI Corp (RLI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 451 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $57.06
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.28 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.62%
Volume: 108,100 shares. 3 month avg: 155,057 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/19/2017 to 06/14/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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RPC Inc (RES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 396 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $20.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.77 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.27%
Volume: 2,169,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,063,212 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/30/2017 to 06/05/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Textron Inc (TXT)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 410 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $47.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.56 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.62%
Volume: 978,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,441,145 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/11/2017 to 06/15/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJIA, long 2x Ultra Dow 30 ProShares (DDM)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 154 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $98.23
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $100.14 or 1.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.58%
Volume: 294,200 shares. 3 month avg: 174,092 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 05/16/2017 to 06/15/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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iShares DJ US Regional Banks (IAT)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 382 out of 594
6/15/17 close: $45.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $47.65 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.64%
Volume: 263,000 shares. 3 month avg: 291,465 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 03/27/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Thursday 6/15/17. New Book Released!

Picture of the Tears for Bumper book.

I released a new book today, or at least this version of Bumper's Story. I've been working on converting the e-book into a paperback and it took a long time to do that. I show a copy of the book on the right.

Here's the book jacket text:

Pushed out the window of a speeding pickup, the puppy found her way to a farmhouse. One allergic sneeze by the farmer's wife meant the puppy would bounce from owner to owner. Would Bumper find a home full of happiness or be imprisoned in a dog pound on death row?

Share the adventures of this spunky little dog as well as the difficulties faced by every pet owner who opens their heart, experiences the special joy a pet brings, but also grapples with the inevitable aging and loss of man's best friend. Buy, read, and enjoy Bumper's Story.

Based on actual events.

Read an excerpt (577k, pdf)

You can find the book on Amazon.com (Kindle), Nook, or Paperback.

If you have social media contacts, then please let them know the book is available for $2.99 (ebook) and $6.99 for paperback.

THANKS! -- Thomas Bulkowski


Thursday 6/15/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.4% or -25.48 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 416 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 213 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 203 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 131/226 or 58.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/82 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The potential drop I talked about appeared, reluctantly almost, at A. The drop carried farther than I expected.

The index bounced to C and retraced back to B.

If B is the second bottom and not just a temporary bottom in a line of lower bottoms, then the ABC pattern could be called an ugly double bottom.

It will confirm if the index closes above peak C. Then there's a good chance the index will continue rising (that's not a guarantee, though).

Of course, confirmation hasn't happened yet, so all you're looking at are squiggles on the price chart. And with the Dow futures down pre-market, it could mean the pattern never unfolds.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,832.91    
 Monthly S1  6,013.90  180.99   
 Weekly S2  6,020.74  6.84   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S1  6,107.81  87.08   
 Daily S2  6,111.34  3.53   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  6,153.12  41.77   
 Low  6,153.55  0.43   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  6,177.80  24.25   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  6,185.63  7.83   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Close  6,194.89  9.26   
 Daily Pivot  6,195.32  0.43   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  6,195.54  0.22   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  6,205.45  9.91   
 Weekly Pivot  6,224.76  19.31   
 Daily R1  6,237.10  12.34   
 Open  6,237.46  0.36   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  6,237.53  0.07   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  6,279.30  41.77   
 Weekly R1  6,311.83  32.53   
 Monthly R1  6,358.79  46.96   
 Weekly R2  6,428.78  69.99   
 Monthly R2  6,522.69  93.91   

Wednesday 6/14/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator is still green, still bullish. And that surprises me.

More, the indicator line itself has zipped upward That means the stocks in my database had a good week. The last two days were especially good to my bottom line.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 23%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 45% on 06/27/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 504 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 22% on 06/27/2016.

These two lines tell a different story than the CPI.

Nothing has changed over the last week, according to the above statistics. I think the red line bottomed in May. It's the more sensitive of the two lines, I believe. The blue line looks as if it's been moving horizontally for months now.

Taken together, I think the two charts represent optimism. One is bullish and the other isn't bearish. I think that's good news.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/13/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.2% or -36.3 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1182 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 595 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 587 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 138/235 or 58.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/64 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The only thing that struck me about this chart is a symmetrical triangle that I show highlighted here in red.

The breakout from symmetricals is upward 61% of the time, according to my book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy.

I show a picture of that book in case you wish to drain Amazon.com of their inventory. Makes a great father's day gift, too.

Don't depend on the triangle actually breaking out upward and soaring like crazy. In this market, I think that's a stretch. The CPI (chart pattern indicator) is still showing weakness, like the market is going to drop.

$ $ $

I spend the morning replacing a "street light" I have mounted on my house. A hail storm punctured the top of the light sensor, breaking it. Since it's 17 years old, the light isn't being sold anymore.

So I went down to Home Depot and bought a replacement. I read the reviews on what I believe is a replacement for my model, but almost half of customer reviews said it was junk.

So I opted for a more pricey model, a high-pressure sodium model (I don't like the CFL variety. They don't work well in cold temps).

The light is about 20 feet up (2 story house, top of the second floor), and I can reach it standing on my 16' ladder. So I held onto the light with one hand, used a wrench with my other hand to remove a lag bolt, and...nothing to hang onto the ladder. Uh-oh.

Winds were gusting to 25 mph at the time, too.

No matter. I removed the old light. Then climbed up to hang the new light.

Got it installed, hooked up and ready to go. Tried to plug it in and a spark jumped between the plug and wall socket. I tried it again and the same thing happened. (I still wonder why the breaker didn't trip...).

So I used an ohm-meter to measure the resistance between the two plug prongs. Yup, there was a short.

I removed the new light and measured the resistance between the two leads coming from the lamp. Still shorted. So their new light was a dud.

Because I don't like taking chances dangling off a ladder in high wind, I took the light back to HD and got my money back. I'll look for another option, and probably install it at a lower height, where I can wrap my hand around the ladder while I work.

Thank goodness I didn't fall.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  20,279.59    
 Monthly S1  20,757.63  478.04   
 Weekly S2  21,026.07  268.44   
 Monthly Pivot  21,031.49  5.42   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  21,130.87  99.38   
 Daily S2  21,142.04  11.17   
 Low  21,186.15  44.11   
 Daily S1  21,188.86  2.71   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  21,218.11  29.25   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  21,220.88  2.77   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  21,231.61  10.73   
 Daily Pivot  21,232.96  1.35   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  21,235.67  2.71   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  21,242.34  6.67   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  21,259.95  17.61   
 High  21,277.07  17.12   
 Daily R1  21,279.78  2.71   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  21,322.91  43.13   
 Daily R2  21,323.88  0.97   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  21,410.15  86.27   
 Monthly R1  21,509.53  99.38   
 Monthly R2  21,783.39  273.86   

Monday 6/12/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

This is a study of how a double bottom chart pattern unfolds.

The double bottom appears at AB. It confirms ONLY when the index closes above the highest peak between the two bottoms. That happens when the index closes above line C.

In this example, the breakout was a weak one. Price threw back to the breakout price and struggled for a bit, moving sideways for several weeks before plummeting to D.

Then, the index started its recovery and climbed to a new high.

$ $ $

I released a new version (5.25) of Patternz today. This supports yahoo quotes. However, I forgot to update the help buttons, so I'll be releasing a new version which updates those where needed.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 22.25 points.
Tuesday: Down 47.81 points.
Wednesday: Up 37.46 points.
Thursday: Up 8.84 points.
Friday: Up 89.44 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 65.68 points or 0.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 97.88 points or 1.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 7.3001 points or 0.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.2% down from the high of 21,305.35 on 06/09/2017.
     8.1% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     2.1% down from the high of 6,341.70 on 06/09/2017.
     15.0% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     0.6% down from the high of 2,446.20 on 06/09/2017.
     8.3% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/09/2017, the CPI had:

12 bearish patterns,
37 bullish patterns,
200 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 75.5%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  21,100  21,186  21,246  21,332  21,391 
Weekly  21,038  21,155  21,230  21,347  21,422 
Monthly  20,292  20,782  21,044  21,534  21,795 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,401  2,416  2,431  2,447  2,462 
Weekly  2,401  2,416  2,431  2,447  2,462 
Monthly  2,317  2,374  2,410  2,468  2,504 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  6,025  6,117  6,229  6,321  6,433 
Weekly  6,025  6,117  6,229  6,321  6,433 
Monthly  5,837  6,023  6,182  6,367  6,527 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks up 22.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 30.7%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.5%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 37.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 27.7%   The trend may continue. 
 8 months up 3.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
19Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
10Double Top, Adam and Adam
8Triangle, symmetrical
7Triangle, ascending
6Pipe bottom
5Triangle, descending
5Triple bottom
4Diamond top
4Head-and-shoulders bottom
4Head-and-shoulders top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Medical Supplies2. Semiconductor
3. Semiconductor3. Medical Supplies
4. Medical Services4. Internet
5. Precision Instrument5. Precision Instrument
50. Petroleum (Integrated)50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing51. Petroleum (Integrated)
52. Retail (Special Lines)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Natural Gas (Diversified)53. Short ETFs
54. Apparel54. Furn/Home Furnishings
55. Furn/Home Furnishings55. Apparel
56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
57. Petroleum (Producing)57. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/9/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 602 stocks searched, or 2.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISChannel      04/29/201606/08/2017Semiconductor
ALKSTriangle, symmetrical      05/05/201706/07/2017Drug
BOOTDead-cat bounce      06/02/201706/02/2017Shoe
CACITriangle, symmetrical      05/05/201706/08/2017IT Services
BOOMBroadening bottom      05/11/201706/02/2017Metal Fabricating
HRSBroadening top      03/21/201706/02/2017Telecom. Equipment
HIGTriangle, ascending      05/10/201706/07/2017Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
LTriangle, ascending      03/02/201706/08/2017Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
JWNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/19/201706/06/2017Retail Store
SUMTriangle, ascending      05/17/201706/07/2017Cement and Aggregates
YHOOTriangle, symmetrical      05/19/201706/07/2017Internet
MXITriangle, ascending      02/13/201706/08/2017Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/01/2017 and 06/08/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 9 out of 594
6/8/17 close: $85.13
1 Month avg volatility: $1.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $77.90 or 8.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 55.49%
Volume: 445,900 shares. 3 month avg: 435,815 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 06/08/2017

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Alkermes (ALKS)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 269 out of 594
6/8/17 close: $60.31
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.33 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.51%
Volume: 717,100 shares. 3 month avg: 823,897 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/05/2017 to 06/07/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 588 out of 594
6/8/17 close: $6.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.71 or 17.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -47.60%
Volume: 1,094,300 shares. 3 month avg: 335,482 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 06/02/2017 to 06/02/2017
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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CACI International (CACI)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 429 out of 594
6/8/17 close: $123.90
1 Month avg volatility: $2.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $116.03 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.32%
Volume: 148,700 shares. 3 month avg: 119,589 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/05/2017 to 06/08/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 492 out of 594
6/8/17 close: $14.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.74 or 10.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.41%
Volume: 32,900 shares. 3 month avg: 36,626 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 05/11/2017 to 06/02/2017
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Harris Corp (HRS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 340 out of 594
6/8/17 close: $111.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $113.83 or 2.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.53%
Volume: 647,300 shares. 3 month avg: 861,837 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 03/21/2017 to 06/02/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (HIG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 303 out of 594
6/8/17 close: $50.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.60 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.44%
Volume: 3,469,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,763,326 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/10/2017 to 06/07/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Loews Corp (L)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 381 out of 594
6/8/17 close: $46.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.81 or 1.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.28%
Volume: 1,121,300 shares. 3 month avg: 859,825 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/02/2017 to 06/08/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 540 out of 594
6/8/17 close: $44.63
1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.03 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.89%
Volume: 23,128,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,261,408 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/19/2017 to 06/06/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Summit Materials Inc (SUM)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 164 out of 594
6/8/17 close: $27.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.09 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.32%
Volume: 1,317,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,546,338 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/17/2017 to 06/07/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 34 out of 594
6/8/17 close: $55.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.88 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 44.07%
Volume: 75,367,300 shares. 3 month avg: 9,206,937 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/19/2017 to 06/07/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SandP Global Materials Sector Index fund (MXI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 316 out of 594
6/8/17 close: $60.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.23 or 1.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.90%
Volume: 5,800 shares. 3 month avg: 34,142 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/13/2017 to 06/08/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Thursday 6/8/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.4% or 22.32 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 581 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 370 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 211 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 130/225 or 57.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/82 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Let's talk about the two circles. I want to know what will happen with the Nasdaq. Will it move up or down? Looking at the historical chart gives one answer. It might not be the right answer, but it's a clue.

Price rises at A, a steep move before it goes horizontal at B. This is similar to the rise from A1 to B1. The A1 rise is less steep and longer.

Price moves horizontally at B and B1, both about three days long.

At C, the index makes a sharp move upward followed by a plunge to D. It's possible that the rise to C1 matches the C rise, but that's not clear yet.

If D is a prediction, then look for the index to drop sharply. Today's chart pattern indicator, incidentally, has turned bearish. That might disappear, so don't depend on it. Yet it's another clue.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,889.03    
 Monthly S1  6,093.21  204.17   
 Weekly S2  6,112.05  18.84   
 Monthly Pivot  6,200.98  88.94   
 Weekly S1  6,204.71  3.73   
 Daily S2  6,253.50  48.79   
 Weekly Pivot  6,256.74  3.24   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  6,267.17  10.43   
 Daily S1  6,275.44  8.27   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  6,280.77  5.33   
 50% Down from Intraday High  6,284.98  4.20   
 Daily Pivot  6,289.11  4.13   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  6,289.18  0.07   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  6,290.44  1.26   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  6,297.38  6.94   
 High  6,302.78  5.40   
 Daily R1  6,311.05  8.27   
 Daily R2  6,324.72  13.67   
 Weekly R1  6,349.40  24.68   
 Weekly R2  6,401.43  52.02   
 Monthly R1  6,405.16  3.73   
 Monthly R2  6,512.93  107.78   

Wednesday 6/7/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The green bar on the far right tells us everything is peachy, a bullish indication of a continued move up.

However, the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart (that is, the CPI line) has plunged. That suggests the market is going to turn down, if it hasn't already.

In fact, it has dropped but not by much. So far...

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 25%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 45% on 06/27/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 504 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 22% on 06/27/2016.

Only the red line shows improvement this week. It took a big jump, climbing from 25% of stocks bearish to 23%.

I still don't think this means much. I expect the performance of stocks in my database to deteriorate.

$ $ $

I released two new versions of Patternz today (5.23, 5.24) to fix bugs introduced in version 5.22 and one with the List form.

A new version supporting yahoo quotes should be out soon. I just verified that it works with my private downloader.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/6/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.1% or -22.25 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1295 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 671 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 624 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 138/234 or 59.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/64 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

Bad news. I think.

The index looks as if it's going to tumble, perhaps all the way down to the launch price. The launch price is at A and the green lines shows the dramatic tumble (to B). I don't think it'll make the drop in one day. I just drew it that way (steep) to fit on the chart.

The red line shows overhead resistance. The CPI (chart pattern indicator) took a dramatic dip today (Monday). So I'm looking for follow-through, a drop, but one that is perhaps not nearly as steep nor as far as the green line.

If I'm wrong, then the index could surprise and move up sharply, powered by that surprise. Or it could continue traveling sideways.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  20,315.92    
 Monthly S1  20,749.98  434.06   
 Weekly S2  20,834.75  84.77   
 Monthly Pivot  20,987.51  152.76   
 Weekly S1  21,009.39  21.88   
 Weekly Pivot  21,117.22  107.82   
 Daily S2  21,136.66  19.44   
 Daily S1  21,160.35  23.69   
 Low  21,168.69  8.34   
 Close  21,184.04  15.35   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  21,189.97  5.94   
 Daily Pivot  21,192.38  2.41   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  21,195.03  2.65   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  21,196.55  1.52   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  21,203.13  6.57   
 Daily R1  21,216.07  12.95   
 High  21,224.41  8.34   
 Daily R2  21,248.10  23.69   
 Weekly R1  21,291.86  43.76   
 Weekly R2  21,399.69  107.82   
 Monthly R1  21,421.57  21.88   
 Monthly R2  21,659.10  237.53   

Monday 6/5/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

A double bottom appears at AB. It's hard to tell if it confirmed as a valid pattern or not.

The index has to close above C, the highest peak between the two bottoms. I haven't checked if it's done that or not and on the chart, it's hard to tell.

I also drew green lines showing potential resistance setup by prior peaks. As the index rises, it might struggle when it reaches the green lines.

To me, it looks as if the index with either turn on Monday or have one more up day before it heads back down. But that's just a guess.

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 50.81 points.
Wednesday: Down 20.82 points.
Thursday: Up 135.53 points.
Friday: Up 62.11 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 126.01 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 95.61 points or 1.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 23.25 points or 1.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.1% down from the high of 21,225.04 on 06/02/2017.
     7.8% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     0.0% down from the high of 6,308.76 on 06/02/2017.
     16.8% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     0.0% down from the high of 2,440.23 on 06/02/2017.
     8.6% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/02/2017, the CPI had:

3 bearish patterns,
39 bullish patterns,
176 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 92.9%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  21,091  21,149  21,187  21,244  21,282 
Weekly  20,842  21,024  21,125  21,307  21,407 
Monthly  20,323  20,765  20,995  21,436  21,667 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,423  2,431  2,436  2,444  2,448 
Weekly  2,391  2,415  2,428  2,452  2,464 
Monthly  2,323  2,381  2,411  2,469  2,498 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  6,234  6,270  6,289  6,325  6,344 
Weekly  6,115  6,210  6,260  6,355  6,404 
Monthly  5,892  6,099  6,204  6,411  6,516 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 30.7%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 30.7%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 31.6%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 37.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 34.0%   The trend may continue. 
 8 months up 3.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
12Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
11Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Broadening top
7Dead-cat bounce
6Triangle, symmetrical
5Head-and-shoulders bottom
5Triangle, descending
4Triple bottom
4Triple top
4Diamond top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Semiconductor2. Semiconductor
3. Medical Supplies3. Medical Supplies
4. Internet4. Internet
5. Precision Instrument5. Precision Instrument
50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing50. Retail (Special Lines)
51. Petroleum (Integrated)51. Retail Store
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
53. Short ETFs53. Short ETFs
54. Furn/Home Furnishings54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
55. Apparel55. Petroleum (Producing)
56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment56. Furn/Home Furnishings
57. Petroleum (Producing)57. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/2/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 11 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 602 stocks searched, or 1.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
DDDPipe top      05/15/201705/22/2017Electronics
AEISChannel      04/29/201606/01/2017Semiconductor
BBWScallop, ascending      05/04/201705/26/2017Retail (Special Lines)
CALPipe bottom      05/15/201705/22/2017Shoe
CIENDiamond top      05/10/201705/31/2017Telecom. Equipment
CSODDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/18/201705/31/2017E-Commerce
WIREDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/18/201705/31/2017Metals and Mining (Div.)
EXPDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/17/201705/30/2017Air Transport
LAWSPipe bottom      05/15/201705/22/2017Metal Fabricating
OTEXHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      05/09/201705/31/2017E-Commerce
RHIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/18/201705/30/2017Human Resources
IYMHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/04/201705/31/2017Metals and Mining (Div.)
EWGRising wedge      05/05/201706/01/2017Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/25/2017 and 06/01/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
3D Systems (DDD)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 14 out of 594
6/1/17 close: $20.67
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.14 or 12.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 55.53%
Volume: 2,452,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,866,782 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 05/15/2017 to 05/22/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 30 out of 594
6/1/17 close: $78.11
1 Month avg volatility: $1.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.61 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 42.67%
Volume: 353,200 shares. 3 month avg: 434,325 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 06/01/2017

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Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc (BBW)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 538 out of 594
6/1/17 close: $11.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.92 or 10.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.64%
Volume: 83,200 shares. 3 month avg: 155,411 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 05/04/2017 to 05/26/2017
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/16/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/17/2017.
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Caleres (CAL)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 513 out of 594
6/1/17 close: $27.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.45 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.90%
Volume: 476,000 shares. 3 month avg: 415,312 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/15/2017 to 05/22/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Ciena Corp (CIEN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 76 out of 594
6/1/17 close: $27.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.15 or 7.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.39%
Volume: 21,973,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,502,374 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 05/10/2017 to 05/31/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Cornerstone OnDemand Inc (CSOD)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 319 out of 594
6/1/17 close: $38.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.47 or 11.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.32%
Volume: 675,300 shares. 3 month avg: 512,385 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/18/2017 to 05/31/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Encore Wire Corp (WIRE)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 411 out of 594
6/1/17 close: $42.75
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.01 or 8.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.38%
Volume: 59,500 shares. 3 month avg: 73,168 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/18/2017 to 05/31/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 386 out of 594
6/1/17 close: $54.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.71 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.28%
Volume: 1,266,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,144,628 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/17/2017 to 05/30/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 465 out of 594
6/1/17 close: $22.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.07 or 8.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.56%
Volume: 22,400 shares. 3 month avg: 22,645 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/15/2017 to 05/22/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Open Text Corp (OTEX)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 384 out of 594
6/1/17 close: $32.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.57 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.00%
Volume: 417,200 shares. 3 month avg: 558,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex bottom reversal pattern from 05/09/2017 to 05/31/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Robert Half International (RHI)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 345 out of 594
6/1/17 close: $47.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.72 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.69%
Volume: 1,081,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,190,678 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/18/2017 to 05/30/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ US Basic Materials sector index fnd (IYM)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 337 out of 594
6/1/17 close: $89.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $86.72 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.59%
Volume: 171,900 shares. 3 month avg: 161,340 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 05/04/2017 to 05/31/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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MSCI Germany Index (EWG)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 84 out of 594
6/1/17 close: $31.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.51 or 1.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.64%
Volume: 4,361,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,414,117 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 05/05/2017 to 06/01/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Thursday 6/1/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -4.67 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 565 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 311 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 254 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 129/224 or 57.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/82 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the dow forecast.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the forecast for the Dow industrials, brought up to date. Let's take a look at how the forecast has done so far. The forecast is a mechanical prediction, based on how years ending with 7 performed, so it's not me guessing.

Notice at B the forecast peaked (red line), about two weeks ahead of the actual peak at A. At A, the prediction reached a bottom, C.

The forecast hit bottom at D, compared to the index at E. Again, that's a few weeks sooner than reality. Since then, the prediction has climbed but the index has not, at least not as much as expected.

If the prediction is correct, look for the Dow to reach a high in July and another peak in October. That's odd, given that the summer months are often slow and October is a weak month (September is the weakest month of the year and yet the prediction shows a strong finish).

The long-term bad news is that the October peak is the highest the Dow will see until 2023. Yikes!

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,881.61    
 Monthly S1  6,040.07  158.45   
 Weekly S2  6,050.93  10.87   
 Weekly S1  6,124.73  73.79   
 Monthly Pivot  6,128.70  3.98   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S2  6,136.94  8.24   
 Low  6,164.07  27.13   
 Daily S1  6,167.73  3.66   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  6,171.03  3.30   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  6,186.20  15.16   
 50% Down from Intraday High  6,193.03  6.83   
 Daily Pivot  6,194.86  1.83   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  6,198.52  3.66   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  6,199.86  1.34   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  6,221.63  21.77   
 High  6,221.99  0.36   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  6,225.65  3.66   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  6,244.83  19.18   
 Daily R2  6,252.78  7.95   
 Monthly R1  6,287.16  34.38   
 Weekly R2  6,291.13  3.98   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  6,375.79  84.66   

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