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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
Patterns
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Patterns
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 06/21/2017
21,410 -57.11 -0.3%
9,293 -11.21 -0.1%
730 -4.82 -0.7%
6,234 45.92 0.7%
2,436 -1.42 -0.1%
YTD
8.3%
2.8%
10.7%
15.8%
8.8%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 06/15/2017
21,600 or 21,000 by 07/01/2017
9,100 or 9,600 by 07/01/2017
720 or 745 by 07/01/2017
6,300 or 6,000 by 07/01/2017
2,525 or 2,390 by 07/01/2017

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June 2015 Headlines


Archives


Tuesday 6/30/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -2.0% or -350.33 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 81 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 38 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.5% on 43 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 53.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 95/159 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 26/46 or 56.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

By now you probably have heard of the impending default of Greece. I wanted to know how they got there. The short answer is that they had 5 years to simplify their tax system and make other reforms but didn't do it. The money is gone and so is the time.

Today was one of those days that hurt. My portfolio dropped more than I liked to see. In the coming days, more turmoil will probably rock the markets. That will be true until after this Sunday when the people of Greece vote on how to proceed. My guess is the effects of a pending default and exit from the Eurozone won't be resolved quickly (meaning it won't end on Sunday, but could take weeks. That's a guess, of course).

The chart shows the index following a trendline down (red). It might bounce off that line but the trajectory could still be down. You might view this episode as a buying opportunity.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,272.10    
 Daily S2  17,361.69  89.59   
 Monthly S1  17,434.22  72.53   
 Daily S1  17,479.02  44.80   
 Low  17,590.55  111.53   
 Weekly S2  17,593.39  2.84   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Low.
 Weekly S1  17,594.87  1.48   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Close  17,596.35  1.48   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily Pivot  17,707.88  111.53   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,722.79  14.91   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,763.64  40.85   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,804.50  40.85   
 Daily R1  17,825.21  20.71   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  17,860.55  35.34   
 Weekly Pivot  17,891.84  31.29   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  17,893.32  1.48   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  17,936.74  43.42   
 High  17,936.74  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Monthly R1  18,022.67  85.93   
 Daily R2  18,054.07  31.40   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Weekly R2  18,190.29  136.22   
 Monthly R2  18,449.00  258.71   

Monday 6/29/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

I drew two red lines that follow an up-sloping channel.

In the early stages of this channel, the index bounces between them. The bottom of that channel shows support even to this day.

But the blue line shows better resistance of the index recently.

The trend shown suggests the index will head toward the bottom red line before rebounding. A cause for this would be the Greece dilemma, them failing to make a deal.

Alternatively, if that problem is solved, look for the index to shoot to the top line.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 103.83 points.
Tuesday: Up 24.29 points.
Wednesday: Down 178 points.
Thursday: Down 75.71 points.
Friday: Up 56.32 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 69.27 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 36.49 points or 0.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 8.5 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.2% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     5.3% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     1.6% down from the high of 5,164.36 on 06/24/2015.
     11.3% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     1.6% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     6.1% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 TBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
Construction spending10:00 WDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Auto & truck sales2:00 WC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
4 Employment reports8:30 ThANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Factory orders10:00 ThD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/26/2015, the CPI had:

11 bearish patterns,
14 bullish patterns,
275 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 56.0%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,830  17,888  17,951  18,009  18,072 
Weekly  17,710  17,828  18,009  18,127  18,307 
Monthly  17,389  17,668  17,977  18,256  18,566 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,088  2,095  2,102  2,108  2,115 
Weekly  2,074  2,088  2,109  2,122  2,143 
Monthly  2,042  2,072  2,102  2,132  2,162 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,027  5,054  5,088  5,114  5,148 
Weekly  4,998  5,039  5,102  5,143  5,205 
Monthly  4,883  4,982  5,073  5,172  5,263 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.7%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 19.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 26.9%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 20.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 30.2%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 31.4%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
23Triangle, symmetrical
14Channel
8Triangle, descending
6Rectangle top
6Broadening bottom
6Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
6Pipe bottom
6Broadening top
5Falling wedge
4Rising wedge

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Furn/Home Furnishings2. Human Resources
3. Human Resources3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. Homebuilding5. Biotechnology
50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment50. Electric Utility (East)
51. Electric Utility (East)51. Short ETFs
52. Trucking/Transp. Leasing52. Electric Utility (Central)
53. Electric Utility (Central)53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Electric Utility (West)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/26/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 17 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 589 stocks searched, or 2.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 12 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ALKPipe bottom      06/08/201506/15/2015Air Transport
ASHBroadening wedge, descending      05/20/201506/22/2015Chemical (Basic)
CHDTriangle, symmetrical      05/07/201506/25/2015Household Products
CNLRectangle top      02/05/201506/25/2015Electric Utility (Central)
^DJTDouble Top, Eve and Eve      06/03/201506/23/2015None
EXPDTriangle, symmetrical      03/23/201506/23/2015Air Transport
HSCRectangle bottom      02/18/201506/25/2015Diversified Co.
HUBGTriple top      05/19/201506/22/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing
JBLUPipe bottom      06/08/201506/15/2015Air Transport
KBALBroadening top      06/02/201506/24/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
MWWBroadening bottom      05/14/201506/22/2015Advertising
MSChannel      03/26/201506/24/2015Securities Brokerage
NUSTriangle, descending      05/28/201506/22/2015Household Products
NVDATriangle, symmetrical      05/26/201506/25/2015Semiconductor
PCLNFalling wedge      05/12/201506/25/2015Internet
SCCOBroadening bottom      06/02/201506/23/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
EWCTriangle, symmetrical      06/08/201506/25/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWIBroadening top      05/12/201506/22/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
TURPipe bottom      06/08/201506/15/2015Long ETFs
PPATriangle, symmetrical      04/13/201506/25/2015Aerospace/Defense

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/18/2015 and 06/25/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 137 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $65.43
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.25 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.49%
Volume: 1,273,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,311,052 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/08/2015 to 06/15/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Ashland Inc. (ASH)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 223 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $125.47
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $122.66 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.77%
Volume: 410,200 shares. 3 month avg: 621,852 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 05/20/2015 to 06/22/2015
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Church and Dwight Co Inc (CHD)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 258 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $82.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $80.89 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.08%
Volume: 333,200 shares. 3 month avg: 581,178 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/07/2015 to 06/25/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cleco Corp (CNL)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 329 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $54.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.52 or 1.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.37%
Volume: 223,000 shares. 3 month avg: 288,795 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/05/2015 to 06/25/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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DJ 20 Transportation (^DJT)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
6/25/15 close: $8,239.58
1 Month avg volatility: $109.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8,550.30 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.85%
Volume: 13,776,000 shares. 3 month avg: 15,966,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 06/03/2015 to 06/23/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 230 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $46.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.20 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.04%
Volume: 741,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,186,742 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/23/2015 to 06/23/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 445 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $16.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.75 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.65%
Volume: 875,900 shares. 3 month avg: 567,122 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 02/18/2015 to 06/25/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Hub Group Inc. (HUBG)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 151 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $41.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.47 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.64%
Volume: 320,900 shares. 3 month avg: 284,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 05/19/2015 to 06/22/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 24 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $21.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.83 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.45%
Volume: 6,424,600 shares. 3 month avg: 9,143,645 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/08/2015 to 06/15/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Kimball International, Inc. (KBAL)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 72 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $11.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.89 or 7.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 31.47%
Volume: 231,400 shares. 3 month avg: 137,843 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/02/2015 to 06/24/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 17 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $6.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.06 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 42.86%
Volume: 1,423,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,081,528 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 05/14/2015 to 06/22/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Morgan Stanley (MS)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 296 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $39.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.01 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.08%
Volume: 8,911,200 shares. 3 month avg: 8,619,392 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/26/2015 to 06/24/2015

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Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc (NUS)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 185 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $48.71
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.26 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.46%
Volume: 484,200 shares. 3 month avg: 834,925 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/28/2015 to 06/22/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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NVidia Corp (NVDA)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 268 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $21.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.00 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.59%
Volume: 8,760,400 shares. 3 month avg: 8,087,152 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/26/2015 to 06/25/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Priceline.com (PCLN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 311 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $1,149.19
1 Month avg volatility: $16.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1,116.52 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.79%
Volume: 334,800 shares. 3 month avg: 585,445 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 05/12/2015 to 06/25/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Southern Copper (SCCO)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 163 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $30.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.05 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.55%
Volume: 1,186,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,318,726 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/02/2015 to 06/23/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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MSCI Canada Index (EWC)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 378 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $27.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.99 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.37%
Volume: 2,496,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,478,471 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/08/2015 to 06/25/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MSCI Italy Index (EWI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 136 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $15.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.21 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.15%
Volume: 1,392,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,086,142 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/12/2015 to 06/22/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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MSCI Turkey Index (TUR)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 514 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $46.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.67 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.91%
Volume: 122,100 shares. 3 month avg: 341,102 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/08/2015 to 06/15/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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PowerShares Aerospace and Defense (PPA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 274 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $36.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.49 or 1.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.00%
Volume: 20,400 shares. 3 month avg: 43,122 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/13/2015 to 06/25/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 6/25/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.7% or -37.68 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 251 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 116 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 135 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 53.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 89/148 or 60.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 29/61 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Notice how the index zipped up from A then dropped back to B, almost level with A. A is what I call the launch price and it often occurs that price will drop back but stop just above the launch price. That scenario works best when the move up from A is a strong push higher (a straight-line run up or a gap up as in this case).

The question now is, will the index drop back to C, to near a lower launch price, D?

One clue is that the chart pattern indicator has turned bearish. That signal may not last, so don't be surprised if the index moves higher and the CPI signal disappears. That can happen up to a week.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,911.42    
 Weekly S2  4,926.51  15.09   
 Monthly S1  5,016.91  90.40   
 Weekly S1  5,024.46  7.55   
 Monthly Pivot  5,080.12  55.66   
 Weekly Pivot  5,083.89  3.77   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S2  5,093.40  9.51   
 Daily S1  5,107.91  14.50   
 Low  5,121.63  13.72   
 Close  5,122.41  0.78   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  5,136.13  13.72   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,137.95  1.82   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,143.00  5.04   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,148.04  5.04   
 Daily R1  5,150.64  2.60   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  5,151.38  0.74   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  5,164.36  12.98   
 Daily R2  5,178.86  14.50   
 Weekly R1  5,181.84  2.98   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  5,185.61  3.77   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  5,241.27  55.66   
 Monthly R2  5,248.82  7.55   

Wednesday 6/24/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Notice the strait line run up since the June low (A) in the indicator.

Now look at the index. It has also moved higher, but struggled. The combination, with the indicator peaking, suggests weakness to come. It might not be immediate since strength can continue for a long time (months), but it will come. Some are worried about the bull market ending. I don't think that's the case. This will be a minor correction when it comes.

Of course, I could be wrong. With Russia acting belligerent and the US moving heavy weapons to frontline countries, the future is going to be interesting.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

$ $ $

I saw a green snake on my bicycle ride this morning. I showed a picture of one I took years ago on Monday's blog. They are stunning creatures.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/23/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.6% or 103.83 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 817 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 455 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 362 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 94/158 or 59.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 26/46 or 56.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

When I first looked at this chart, it reminded me of an Elliott wave structure. I won't pretend to be a follower of Elliott wave because I think that even the experts can't agree on a wave count.

Having said that, here's my wave count. This is a motive wave, 5 segments that move up (cleverly labeled 1 through 5 ) in a stair-step climb.

What is supposed to follow is an ABC correction. I show the first wave, A. Following that, look for the index to climb for a time and then make another move down.

Unless the 5 wave extends...which is another thing about EW that bothers me.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,403.58    
 Weekly S2  17,521.33  117.75   
 Monthly S1  17,761.68  240.35   
 Weekly S1  17,820.56  58.88   
 Daily S2  17,955.65  135.10   
 Weekly Pivot  17,997.64  41.99   
 Low  18,027.63  29.99   
 Open  18,027.63  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  18,037.72  10.09   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 Monthly Pivot  18,056.52  18.80   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,086.47  29.95   
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,104.65  18.18   
 Daily Pivot  18,109.69  5.04   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  18,119.78  10.09   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,122.83  3.05   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  18,181.67  58.84   
 Daily R1  18,191.76  10.09   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  18,263.73  71.98   
 Weekly R1  18,296.87  33.13   
 Monthly R1  18,414.62  117.75   
 Weekly R2  18,473.95  59.33   
 Monthly R2  18,709.46  235.51   

Monday 6/22/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I shows the Dow industrials on the daily chart.

Two red lines highlight the bouncing that the index has done. It is range bound.

The index is approaching the top line now. Will it break out upward this week? My guess is no. I think the Greece financial problem will cause worries and those worries will put the market in a foul mood.

I'm looking for another traverse to the bottom line. After that, we'll see.

 

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a green snake.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 107.67 points.
Tuesday: Up 113.31 points.
Wednesday: Up 31.26 points.
Thursday: Up 180.1 points.
Friday: Down 99.89 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 117.11 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 65.9 points or 1.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 15.88 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.8% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     5.7% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     0.5% down from the high of 5,143.32 on 06/18/2015.
     12.1% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     1.2% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     6.5% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Existing home sales10:00 MCCounts sales of used homes.
Durable goods orders8:30 TBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.
New home sales10:00 TC+Shows sales of single-family homes.
Gross domestic product8:30 WBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Personal income & consumption8:30 ThC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 ThC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Michigan sentiment10:00 FB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/19/2015, the CPI had:

13 bearish patterns,
19 bullish patterns,
230 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 59.4%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,941  17,978  18,048  18,086  18,155 
Weekly  17,487  17,751  17,963  18,228  18,439 
Monthly  17,369  17,692  18,022  18,345  18,675 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,101  2,106  2,114  2,118  2,126 
Weekly  2,049  2,079  2,103  2,134  2,157 
Monthly  2,043  2,077  2,106  2,139  2,168 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,097  5,107  5,124  5,133  5,150 
Weekly  4,925  5,021  5,082  5,178  5,239 
Monthly  4,910  5,013  5,078  5,182  5,247 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 30.4%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 29.1%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 29.9%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 36.9%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 44.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months up 31.4%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
23Triangle, symmetrical
15Channel
7Triangle, descending
6Rectangle top
6Head-and-shoulders top
6Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
5Rectangle bottom
5Double Top, Adam and Adam
5Broadening bottom
5Broadening top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Human Resources2. Furn/Home Furnishings
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Human Resources
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Chemical (Basic)
5. Biotechnology5. Building Materials
50. Electric Utility (East)50. Electric Utility (East)
51. Short ETFs51. Metal Fabricating
52. Electric Utility (Central)52. Short ETFs
53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment53. Electric Utility (Central)
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Electric Utility (West)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Saturday 6/20/15. What Am I Doing?

Picture of a front yard pathway.

This is a picture of part of my front yard. I have been working on placing pavers and building a path.

To the left of that path will be flowerbeds. To the right will be grass or more flowerbeds.

I also plan to put a bench on the upper left, accessible by the path.

This weekend, I'll be extending the path probably up to the black plastic. I have to level the pavers I've already put down since they bank on the curve (helpful if you're walking at about 100 mph).

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

 

 

 

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Friday 6/19/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 31 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 589 stocks searched, or 5.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 17 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (9) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AFLHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/26/201506/16/2015Insurance (Diversified)
AMZNRectangle top      05/06/201506/18/2015Internet
APCFalling wedge      05/15/201506/18/2015Petroleum (Producing)
BECNTriangle, symmetrical      05/26/201506/18/2015Retail Building Supply
CNPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/05/201506/16/2015Electric Utility (Central)
CFBroadening top      05/22/201506/18/2015Chemical (Basic)
CIENChannel      05/06/201506/18/2015Telecom. Equipment
CNLRectangle top      02/05/201506/18/2015Electric Utility (Central)
XRAYTriangle, symmetrical      05/20/201506/17/2015Medical Supplies
DTVRising wedge      04/28/201506/12/2015Telecom. Equipment
DOWRising wedge      02/24/201506/18/2015Chemical (Basic)
ETFCChannel      03/18/201506/18/2015Securities Brokerage
GFFBroadening bottom      05/08/201506/16/2015Building Materials
HPTriangle, descending      05/19/201506/18/2015Petroleum (Producing)
HSICRectangle top      02/17/201506/17/2015Medical Supplies
HERODead-cat bounce      06/18/201506/18/2015Petroleum (Producing)
KBHTriangle, symmetrical      04/21/201506/18/2015Homebuilding
KLACDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/09/201506/15/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LBChannel      04/29/201506/18/2015Apparel
LMTTriangle, symmetrical      05/06/201506/16/2015Aerospace/Defense
LChannel      04/15/201506/18/2015Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
MSChannel      03/26/201506/18/2015Securities Brokerage
NTGRTriangle, symmetrical      05/26/201506/18/2015Telecom. Equipment
NFXTriangle, symmetrical      05/15/201506/18/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
RHIBroadening bottom      05/26/201506/18/2015Human Resources
COLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/05/201506/16/2015Aerospace/Defense
SAIAHead-and-shoulders complex top      05/12/201506/15/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SKXChannel      05/20/201506/18/2015Shoe
TOLTriangle, symmetrical      04/15/201506/18/2015Homebuilding
UPSTriple bottom      06/02/201506/16/2015Air Transport
WATRectangle top      05/21/201506/12/2015Precision Instrument

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/11/2015 and 06/18/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
AFLAC Inc (AFL)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 264 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $63.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.08 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.27%
Volume: 1,781,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,988,557 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 05/26/2015 to 06/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 18 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $439.39
1 Month avg volatility: $6.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $416.32 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 41.58%
Volume: 3,377,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,027,454 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 05/06/2015 to 06/18/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 283 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $82.89
1 Month avg volatility: $1.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $79.65 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.47%
Volume: 2,408,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,960,740 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 05/15/2015 to 06/18/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 146 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $31.62
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.82 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.74%
Volume: 242,600 shares. 3 month avg: 426,211 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/26/2015 to 06/18/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 514 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $19.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.84 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.05%
Volume: 3,742,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,628,337 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/05/2015 to 06/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 580 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $64.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $67.29 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.87%
Volume: 2,588,700 shares. 3 month avg: 686,940 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/22/2015 to 06/18/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Ciena Corp (CIEN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 26 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $25.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.84 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.80%
Volume: 2,686,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,174,640 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/06/2015 to 06/18/2015

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Cleco Corp (CNL)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 381 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $54.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.69 or 1.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.13%
Volume: 278,800 shares. 3 month avg: 316,303 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/05/2015 to 06/18/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Dentsply International, Inc. (XRAY)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 371 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $53.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.37 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.18%
Volume: 666,800 shares. 3 month avg: 709,089 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/20/2015 to 06/17/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DirecTV Group Inc. (DTV)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 172 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $93.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $94.77 or 1.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.44%
Volume: 3,570,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,587,120 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 04/28/2015 to 06/12/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Dow Chemical (DOW)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 94 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $53.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.30 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.50%
Volume: 12,859,500 shares. 3 month avg: 7,911,638 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/24/2015 to 06/18/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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E-Trade Financial Corp (ETFC)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 42 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $30.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.66 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.36%
Volume: 2,372,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,284,188 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/18/2015 to 06/18/2015

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Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 46 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $16.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.05 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.90%
Volume: 247,500 shares. 3 month avg: 185,971 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 05/08/2015 to 06/16/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Helmerich and Payne Inc. (HP)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 171 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $72.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $78.29 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.96%
Volume: 1,426,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,884,563 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/19/2015 to 06/18/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 243 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $145.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $140.30 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.55%
Volume: 412,600 shares. 3 month avg: 715,558 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/17/2015 to 06/17/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Hercules Offshore, Inc. (HERO)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 581 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $0.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $0.10 or 59.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -74.84%
Volume: 31,465,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,037,511 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 06/18/2015 to 06/18/2015

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KB Home Corp. (KBH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $14.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.18 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.61%
Volume: 4,299,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,518,865 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/21/2015 to 06/18/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 525 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $58.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.25 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.23%
Volume: 1,158,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,370,183 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/09/2015 to 06/15/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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L Brands, Inc. (LB)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 305 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $86.08
1 Month avg volatility: $1.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.91 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.54%
Volume: 1,394,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,453,183 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2015 to 06/18/2015

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Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 304 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $192.75
1 Month avg volatility: $1.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $187.50 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.09%
Volume: 1,159,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,276,971 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/06/2015 to 06/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Loews Corp (L)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 373 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $39.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.51 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.64%
Volume: 1,654,300 shares. 3 month avg: 977,292 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/15/2015 to 06/18/2015

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Morgan Stanley (MS)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 240 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $39.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.24 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.55%
Volume: 7,593,600 shares. 3 month avg: 8,692,551 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/26/2015 to 06/18/2015

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Netgear Inc. (NTGR)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 500 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $31.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.91 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.54%
Volume: 301,400 shares. 3 month avg: 295,391 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/26/2015 to 06/18/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Newfield Exploration Company (NFX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 20 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $37.38
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.12 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 37.83%
Volume: 2,573,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,732,737 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/15/2015 to 06/18/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Robert Half International (RHI)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 382 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $57.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.20 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.71%
Volume: 785,100 shares. 3 month avg: 946,655 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 05/26/2015 to 06/18/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Rockwell Collins (COL)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 138 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $95.86
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $92.50 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.47%
Volume: 779,900 shares. 3 month avg: 751,282 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/05/2015 to 06/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SAIA Inc (SAIA)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 557 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $40.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $42.56 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -26.75%
Volume: 197,100 shares. 3 month avg: 303,340 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex top reversal pattern from 05/12/2015 to 06/15/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 67% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 53% of the time.

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Skechers USA Inc (SKX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 3 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $112.08
1 Month avg volatility: $2.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $105.83 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 102.86%
Volume: 578,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,031,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/20/2015 to 06/18/2015

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Toll Brothers (TOL)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 122 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $37.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.58 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.32%
Volume: 1,384,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,526,717 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/15/2015 to 06/18/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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United Parcel Service (UPS)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 465 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $101.40
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $98.16 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.79%
Volume: 2,949,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,173,482 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 06/02/2015 to 06/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Waters Corp (WAT)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 93 out of 581
6/18/15 close: $136.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $130.67 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.10%
Volume: 488,800 shares. 3 month avg: 434,623 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 05/21/2015 to 06/12/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Thursday 6/18/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.2% or 9.33 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 621 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 365 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 256 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 88/147 or 59.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 29/61 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A potential double top appears at AB. It won't become an actual double top until the index closes below C. When that happens, it is said to confirm the double top as a valid chart pattern.

Now look at the two horizontal red lines. It's a trading range. If you had to guess, which way will the index go on Thursday?

The index it toward the top of the range, leaving all of that space below to fall into.

That's what I expect to happen. I vote for a lower close on Thursday. It could bust out upward from the trading range and the probabilities do suggest a higher close, so keep that in mind.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,854.03    
 Weekly S2  4,920.19  66.17   
 Monthly S1  4,959.45  39.26   
 Weekly S1  4,992.54  33.08   
 Daily S2  5,024.55  32.02   
 Monthly Pivot  5,037.03  12.47   
 Low  5,042.25  5.22   
 Daily S1  5,044.72  2.47   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  5,046.96  2.25   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,056.71  9.75   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,061.18  4.47   
 Daily Pivot  5,062.41  1.23   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,064.88  2.47   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,065.65  0.77   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  5,067.68  2.03   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  5,080.11  12.43   
 Daily R1  5,082.58  2.47   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  5,100.27  17.70   
 Weekly R1  5,119.31  19.03   
 Monthly R1  5,142.45  23.15   
 Weekly R2  5,173.73  31.28   
 Monthly R2  5,220.03  46.29   

Wednesday 6/17/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Both the indicator and the index are trending in the same direction. I show that trend with the two red lines.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

However, the indicator is climbing. It's neutral. Although the white bar on the far right is difficult to see, it's there. It suggests we are heading toward higher ground.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/16/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.6% or -107.67 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 647 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 334 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 313 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 93/157 or 59.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 26/46 or 56.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index has completed a measured move down pattern. I show that as the ABCD tumble. After one of those, price often retraces to the corrective phase, BC.

I put a red line on the target. That is where I expect the index to hit. It might zip past it or it might fall short, but that's my target. Of course the Greece thing could disrupt the markets, so keep that in mind.

$ $ $

On a personal note, my development/research computer crashed, what they call a GPF (general protection fault). The thing just halted. And it did this oh, 3 times over the last 2 or 3 days. So I cleaned the memory chip contacts with a pencil erasure, vacuumed the thing, and used compress air to blow any dust out. It's been working fine so far. And that's been the fix the last several times this has happened.

If it continues to fail, I've a backup machine ready to go. When that crashes, it'll be bad news. I'll have to upgrade my machines and development tools then rewrite all of my software. That could take a year.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,316.11    
 Weekly S2  17,477.17  161.06   
 Monthly S1  17,553.64  76.47   
 Daily S2  17,601.11  47.47   
 Weekly S1  17,634.17  33.06   
 Daily S1  17,696.14  61.97   
 Low  17,698.42  2.28   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,771.89  73.47   
 Close  17,791.17  19.28   
 Daily Pivot  17,793.45  2.28   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,794.59  1.14   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,817.29  22.70   
 Weekly Pivot  17,871.97  54.69   
 Daily R1  17,888.48  16.51   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  17,890.76  2.28   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Open  17,890.76  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the High.
 Monthly Pivot  17,952.50  61.74   
 Daily R2  17,985.79  33.29   
 Weekly R1  18,028.97  43.18   
 Monthly R1  18,190.03  161.06   
 Weekly R2  18,266.77  76.74   
 Monthly R2  18,588.89  322.12   

Tuesday 6/16/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.6% or -107.67 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 647 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 334 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 313 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 93/157 or 59.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 26/46 or 56.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index has completed a measured move down pattern. I show that as the ABCD tumble. After one of those, price often retraces to the corrective phase, BC.

I put a red line on the target. That is where I expect the index to hit. It might zip past it or it might fall short, but that's my target. Of course the Greece thing could disrupt the markets, so keep that in mind.

$ $ $

On a personal note, my development/research computer crashed, what they call a GPF (general protection fault). The thing just halted. And it did this oh, 3 times over the last 2 or 3 days. So I cleaned the memory chip contacts with a pencil erasure, vacuumed the thing, and used compress air to blow any dust out. It's been working fine so far. And that's been the fix the last several times this has happened.

If it continues to fail, I've a backup machine ready to go. When that crashes, it'll be bad news. I'll have to upgrade my machines and development tools then rewrite all of my software. That could take a year.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,316.11    
 Weekly S2  17,477.17  161.06   
 Monthly S1  17,553.64  76.47   
 Daily S2  17,601.11  47.47   
 Weekly S1  17,634.17  33.06   
 Daily S1  17,696.14  61.97   
 Low  17,698.42  2.28   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,771.89  73.47   
 Close  17,791.17  19.28   
 Daily Pivot  17,793.45  2.28   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,794.59  1.14   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,817.29  22.70   
 Weekly Pivot  17,871.97  54.69   
 Daily R1  17,888.48  16.51   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  17,890.76  2.28   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Open  17,890.76  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the High.
 Monthly Pivot  17,952.50  61.74   
 Daily R2  17,985.79  33.29   
 Weekly R1  18,028.97  43.18   
 Monthly R1  18,190.03  161.06   
 Weekly R2  18,266.77  76.74   
 Monthly R2  18,588.89  322.12   

Monday 6/15/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily chart.

A potential double bottom appears at AB. It's a potential double bottom because the index has to close above the top of the pattern, C.

That hasn't happened yet and it might not happen before the index tumbles.

Even if the index moves higher and confirms the double bottom, it has overhead resistance setup by the red trendline.

With Greece talks continuing this weekend, perhaps we'll get some good news to send the markets higher on Monday or later during the week.

That's what I expect to happen.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 82.91 points.
Tuesday: Down 2.51 points.
Wednesday: Up 236.36 points.
Thursday: Up 38.97 points.
Friday: Down 140.53 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 49.38 points or 0.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 17.36 points or 0.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 1.28 points or 0.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.5% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     5.1% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     1.3% down from the high of 5,119.83 on 04/27/2015.
     10.7% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     1.9% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     5.7% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Industrial production9:15 MB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Capacity utilization9:15 MB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.
Housing starts8:30 TB-Number of homes beginning construction.
Building permits8:30 TB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Rate decision2:00 W?The Federal Reserves reports on interest rate changes.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Consumer price index8:30 ThB+Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services.
Leading indicators10:00 ThD-Summary of already known reports.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
VIX expiresWednesday
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,752  17,825  17,931  18,004  18,109 
Weekly  17,513  17,706  17,908  18,101  18,303 
Monthly  17,352  17,625  17,988  18,262  18,625 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,082  2,088  2,098  2,104  2,114 
Weekly  2,051  2,072  2,094  2,115  2,137 
Monthly  2,038  2,066  2,100  2,129  2,163 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,029  5,040  5,054  5,065  5,079 
Weekly  4,916  4,983  5,042  5,110  5,169 
Monthly  4,849  4,950  5,032  5,133  5,215 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 43.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 19.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 20.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks down 10.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 25.8%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
30Triangle, symmetrical
11Head-and-shoulders top
11Channel
8Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Triangle, descending
7Broadening top
6Rectangle top
6Triangle, ascending
6Rectangle bottom
4Broadening bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Human Resources
2. Furn/Home Furnishings2. Cement and Aggregates
3. Human Resources3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Chemical (Basic)4. Retail Building Supply
5. Building Materials5. Securities Brokerage
50. Electric Utility (East)50. Machinery
51. Metal Fabricating51. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
52. Short ETFs52. Metal Fabricating
53. Electric Utility (Central)53. Electric Utility (Central)
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Electric Utility (West)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/12/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 19 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 589 stocks searched, or 3.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AMZNRectangle top      05/06/201506/11/2015Internet
CKPPipe bottom      05/26/201506/01/2015Precision Instrument
CBKDead-cat bounce      06/09/201506/09/2015Retail (Special Lines)
CNLRectangle top      02/05/201506/11/2015Electric Utility (Central)
CREETriangle, descending      05/06/201506/08/2015Semiconductor
FERectangle bottom      02/19/201506/11/2015Electric Utility (East)
FDPTriangle, descending      05/12/201506/09/2015Food Processing
GETriangle, symmetrical      05/21/201506/09/2015Diversified Co.
HSICRectangle top      02/17/201506/11/2015Medical Supplies
LBChannel      04/29/201506/11/2015Apparel
LMTTriangle, symmetrical      05/06/201506/11/2015Aerospace/Defense
MNKDFlag, high and tight      05/12/201506/09/2015Biotechnology
MTSNRectangle top      05/11/201506/11/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
NETriangle, symmetrical      04/15/201506/09/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
JWNChannel      03/23/201506/11/2015Retail Store
ROKRising wedge      05/21/201506/11/2015Diversified Co.
WATRectangle top      05/21/201506/11/2015Precision Instrument
IYCRectangle top      02/20/201506/11/2015Retail Store
DBARectangle bottom      03/13/201506/11/2015Investment Co. (Domestic)
XRTChannel      05/08/201506/11/2015Retail Store
SSGPipe bottom      05/27/201506/01/2015Short ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/04/2015 and 06/11/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 24 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $432.97
1 Month avg volatility: $6.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $418.35 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 39.51%
Volume: 2,922,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,049,198 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 05/06/2015 to 06/11/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Checkpoint Systems (CKP)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 555 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $10.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.91 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.11%
Volume: 120,200 shares. 3 month avg: 236,589 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/26/2015 to 06/01/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Christopher and Banks Corp (CBK)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 451 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $4.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.78 or 12.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.52%
Volume: 690,500 shares. 3 month avg: 360,366 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 06/09/2015 to 06/09/2015

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Cleco Corp (CNL)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 350 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $54.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.33 or 1.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.53%
Volume: 183,800 shares. 3 month avg: 334,909 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/05/2015 to 06/11/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Cree Inc (CREE)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 435 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $30.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.94 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.27%
Volume: 1,024,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,031,992 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/06/2015 to 06/08/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 474 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $34.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.93 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.46%
Volume: 2,164,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,045,631 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 02/19/2015 to 06/11/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 117 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $38.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.86 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.89%
Volume: 45,200 shares. 3 month avg: 181,105 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/12/2015 to 06/09/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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General Electric Co (GE)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 214 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $27.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.84 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.86%
Volume: 31,387,000 shares. 3 month avg: 43,882,786 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/21/2015 to 06/09/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 242 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $143.41
1 Month avg volatility: $1.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $138.99 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.33%
Volume: 393,000 shares. 3 month avg: 740,334 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/17/2015 to 06/11/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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L Brands, Inc. (LB)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 311 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $84.69
1 Month avg volatility: $1.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.57 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.15%
Volume: 1,109,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,435,034 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2015 to 06/11/2015

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Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 336 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $191.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $185.68 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.57%
Volume: 1,333,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,288,443 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/06/2015 to 06/11/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MannKind Corp (MNKD)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 236 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $5.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.76 or 16.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.49%
Volume: 15,281,200 shares. 3 month avg: 7,221,003 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 05/12/2015 to 06/09/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Mattson Technology Inc. (MTSN)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 57 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $3.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.53 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.76%
Volume: 207,000 shares. 3 month avg: 822,065 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 05/11/2015 to 06/11/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Noble Corporation (NE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 203 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $16.62
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.27 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.30%
Volume: 6,445,700 shares. 3 month avg: 8,117,405 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/15/2015 to 06/09/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 366 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $73.62
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.15 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.27%
Volume: 775,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,180,340 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/23/2015 to 06/11/2015

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Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 101 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $126.89
1 Month avg volatility: $1.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $130.23 or 2.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.11%
Volume: 647,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,076,117 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 05/21/2015 to 06/11/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Waters Corp (WAT)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 92 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $134.64
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $130.59 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.45%
Volume: 345,600 shares. 3 month avg: 442,194 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 05/21/2015 to 06/11/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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DJ US consumer svcs index fnd (retail) (IYC)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 215 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $144.22
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $142.04 or 1.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.69%
Volume: 22,900 shares. 3 month avg: 63,654 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/20/2015 to 06/11/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 523 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $22.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.61 or 2.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.41%
Volume: 431,300 shares. 3 month avg: 385,194 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 03/13/2015 to 06/11/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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SPDR Retail ETF (XRT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 192 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $99.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $96.88 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.59%
Volume: 3,005,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,275,777 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/08/2015 to 06/11/2015

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UltraShort 2x Semiconductor ProShares (SSG)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 507 out of 581
6/11/15 close: $43.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.23 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.64%
Volume: 1,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,983 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/27/2015 to 06/01/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 6/11/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.3% or 62.82 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 132 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 86 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 46 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 65.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 87/146 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 29/61 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

When I first looked at this chart, I thought here's an example of a measured move up pattern. The first leg is the AB move. The corrective phase is BC (a retrace) and the final leg starts at C and goes up.

Now I'm not so sure. After such a large gain, I think the index is going to retrace and close lower. The probabilities say that I'm wrong, with a 65% chance of closing higher on Thursday. But BC is resting on overhead resistance setup by the horizontal price movement a week ago.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,800.06    
 Monthly S1  4,938.37  138.32   
 Weekly S2  4,983.19  44.82   
 Daily S2  5,000.02  16.83   
 Low  5,024.17  24.15   
 Monthly Pivot  5,026.49  2.32   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Open  5,029.41  2.92   Yes! The Open is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly S1  5,029.94  0.53   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Open.
 Daily S1  5,038.35  8.41   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,048.04  9.69   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,055.42  7.37   
 Daily Pivot  5,062.51  7.09   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,062.79  0.28   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  5,072.27  9.48   
 Close  5,076.69  4.42   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  5,086.66  9.97   
 Daily R1  5,100.84  14.18   
 Weekly R1  5,119.02  18.18   
 Daily R2  5,125.00  5.98   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  5,161.35  36.35   
 Monthly R1  5,164.80  3.45   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  5,252.92  88.11   

Wednesday 6/10/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This chart and the one below, show the chart pattern indicator taking a dive and plowing into 0.

That means the index is going to rebound, of course, but it does not say when that will happen. I don't think this is a cause for concern. I think it's the market's way of shaking out the weaker players. I'm still hopeful that the index will rebound.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

$ $ $

My publisher said that they sold the translation rights to Thai for my book, Visual Guide to Chart Patterns shown on the right. It's a popular book but it would be more popular if each of you reading this bought a dozen copies.

$ $ $

I released new research about Bottom fishing. I found a new setup that makes big bucks but comes with big losses. Sigh. Maybe you can improve on it.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/9/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.5% or -82.91 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 727 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 359 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 368 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 93/157 or 59.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 25/45 or 55.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

First, let's discuss the red lines. These outline a down-sloping channel. That's alarming because it suggests the index is going lower.

Now look at the blue line. The slope of this line changes. The downturn mellows, as if it could curve upward in a day or two. Since I'm bullish, that is what I expect to happen. The above probabilities suggest a lower close tomorrow, so maybe the upturn will wait a day.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,332.10    
 Monthly S1  17,549.33  217.22   
 Weekly S2  17,573.99  24.66   
 Weekly S1  17,670.27  96.28   
 Daily S2  17,701.43  31.16   
 Daily S1  17,733.99  32.56   
 Low  17,760.61  26.62   
 Close  17,766.55  5.94   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  17,793.17  26.62   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,795.65  2.48   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,806.48  10.83   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,817.30  10.82   
 Daily R1  17,825.73  8.43   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  17,849.46  23.73   
 High  17,852.35  2.89   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  17,884.91  32.56   
 Weekly Pivot  17,919.18  34.27   
 Monthly Pivot  17,950.34  31.16   
 Weekly R1  18,015.46  65.12   
 Monthly R1  18,167.57  152.11   
 Weekly R2  18,264.37  96.80   
 Monthly R2  18,568.58  304.21   

Monday 6/8/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utility on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the dow utility index on the daily scale.

I'm a big fan of owning dividend paying stocks. Why? Because in a down turn, they tend to retain more of their value. The are not as volatile so you don't have to worry so much about dead-cat bounces. They may happen but seldom.

Utility stocks are the kind that I love to buy and hold. You buy then cheap when they are yielding 5% and just hold on. A 5% dividend is a lot better than banks are paying plus you get the opportunity for capital gains.

This recent down turn has surprised me. I didn't expect the index to drop like it has.

I drew two red lines to show the horizontal price movement. The bottom trendline doesn't connect with the lows as you might expect, but it's fine for this purpose. Clearly, the index has broken out downward from the trading range. I'm not saying you should buy utility stocks, and I'm not hunting for any myself, but it is something to keep in mind.

Will the other indices follow suit? It's possible. I'm still bullish but the market is nervous. We could be in for a tumble. I was telling my friend Charlotte Hudgin that periods of high volatility follow periods of lower volatility. This week, judging by the movement in the indices, has been a low volatility week. Thus, I would expect a higher volatility week to follow. That means large price swings are coming. ...Maybe this week. Maybe not.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 29.69 points.
Tuesday: Down 28.43 points.
Wednesday: Up 64.33 points.
Thursday: Down 170.69 points.
Friday: Down 56.12 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 161.22 points or 0.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 1.57 points or 0.0%.
The S&P 500 index was down 14.56 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.7% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     4.8% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     1.0% down from the high of 5,119.83 on 04/27/2015.
     11.1% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     2.0% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     5.7% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Wholesale inventories10:00 TD-Wholesale sales and inventory statistics.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Treasury budget2:00 WDTracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing).
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Retail sales8:30 ThA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
International trade8:30 ThC+Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others.
Business inventories10:00 ThC-Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.
Producer price index8:30 FB-Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/05/2015, the CPI had:

12 bearish patterns,
19 bullish patterns,
208 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 61.3%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,753  17,801  17,871  17,919  17,989 
Weekly  17,602  17,726  17,947  18,071  18,292 
Monthly  17,360  17,605  17,978  18,223  18,596 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,078  2,085  2,093  2,101  2,108 
Weekly  2,064  2,078  2,100  2,115  2,136 
Monthly  2,032  2,062  2,098  2,129  2,165 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,007  5,038  5,056  5,087  5,106 
Weekly  4,980  5,024  5,070  5,114  5,159 
Monthly  4,797  4,933  5,024  5,159  5,250 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks down 11.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 19.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 14.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 20.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 17.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 25.8%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
33Triangle, symmetrical
11Head-and-shoulders top
9Double Top, Adam and Adam
9Channel
8Broadening top
6Triangle, descending
6Triangle, ascending
5Pipe bottom
5Rectangle top
5Broadening bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Human Resources1. Human Resources
2. Cement and Aggregates2. Cement and Aggregates
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Retail Building Supply
4. Retail Building Supply4. Furn/Home Furnishings
5. Securities Brokerage5. Biotechnology
50. Machinery50. Metal Fabricating
51. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
52. Metal Fabricating52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
53. Electric Utility (Central)53. Short ETFs
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/5/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 26 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 589 stocks searched, or 4.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 18 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABAXTriangle, symmetrical      05/18/201506/04/2015Medical Supplies
AMGNBroadening bottom      04/29/201506/02/2015Biotechnology
ARCBFalling wedge      04/08/201506/04/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing
AIZBroadening top      05/26/201506/04/2015Insurance (Diversified)
ATODouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/20/201506/01/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
CBFalling wedge      05/08/201506/04/2015Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CNLRectangle top      02/05/201506/04/2015Electric Utility (Central)
COSTChannel      04/17/201506/04/2015Retail Store
DOHead-and-shoulders complex top      04/16/201506/03/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
EMCTriangle, symmetrical      04/22/201506/02/2015Computers and Peripherals
FLSFalling wedge      04/14/201506/04/2015Machinery
ITBroadening top      05/18/201506/02/2015Information Services
HSCRectangle bottom      02/18/201506/04/2015Diversified Co.
HSICRectangle top      02/17/201506/04/2015Medical Supplies
LEGTriangle, symmetrical      05/19/201506/04/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
MLMScallop, ascending and inverted      04/29/201506/04/2015Cement and Aggregates
METBroadening top      05/12/201506/03/2015Insurance (Life)
PFGBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      04/30/201506/04/2015Insurance (Diversified)
RESTriangle, symmetrical      05/11/201506/04/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TSCOTriangle, symmetrical      04/23/201506/04/2015Retail Building Supply
TREXTriangle, symmetrical      05/13/201506/04/2015Building Materials
UGIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/20/201506/01/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
VRTXTriangle, symmetrical      05/13/201506/04/2015Biotechnology
IYCRectangle top      02/20/201506/04/2015Retail Store
RTHTriangle, symmetrical      04/24/201506/04/2015Retail Store
DBARectangle bottom      03/13/201506/04/2015Investment Co. (Domestic)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/28/2015 and 06/04/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abaxis Inc (ABAX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 465 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $52.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.33 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.09%
Volume: 161,700 shares. 3 month avg: 164,834 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/18/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 416 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $158.09
1 Month avg volatility: $2.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $150.78 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.75%
Volume: 3,917,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,340,586 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 04/29/2015 to 06/02/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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ArcBest Corp (ARCB)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 547 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $34.72
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.07 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -25.12%
Volume: 214,900 shares. 3 month avg: 303,258 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 04/08/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Assurant Inc (AIZ)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 388 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $65.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.13 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.19%
Volume: 397,200 shares. 3 month avg: 606,937 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/26/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Atmos Energy Corp (ATO)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 377 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $52.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $54.49 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.08%
Volume: 308,800 shares. 3 month avg: 520,338 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/20/2015 to 06/01/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Chubb Corp (CB)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 436 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $96.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $94.34 or 2.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.98%
Volume: 1,287,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,107,263 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 05/08/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Cleco Corp (CNL)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 293 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $54.06
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.38 or 1.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.88%
Volume: 293,200 shares. 3 month avg: 357,715 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/05/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 329 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $140.65
1 Month avg volatility: $1.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $136.64 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.78%
Volume: 2,898,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,089,994 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/17/2015 to 06/04/2015

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Diamond Offshore (DO)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 405 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $29.72
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.85 or 10.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -19.04%
Volume: 1,189,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,893,351 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex top reversal pattern from 04/16/2015 to 06/03/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 67% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 53% of the time.

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EMC Corporation (EMC)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 490 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $27.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.00 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.18%
Volume: 15,970,000 shares. 3 month avg: 16,064,703 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/22/2015 to 06/02/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Flowserve Corp (FLS)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 506 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $54.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.63 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.84%
Volume: 811,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,437,425 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 04/14/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Gartner Inc (IT)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 270 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $86.59
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $89.79 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.83%
Volume: 382,600 shares. 3 month avg: 540,060 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/18/2015 to 06/02/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $16.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.14 or 6.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.09%
Volume: 392,900 shares. 3 month avg: 615,268 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 02/18/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 256 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $140.88
1 Month avg volatility: $1.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $136.99 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.47%
Volume: 341,600 shares. 3 month avg: 743,640 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/17/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Leggett and Platt (LEG)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 97 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $47.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.82 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.04%
Volume: 905,700 shares. 3 month avg: 969,682 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/19/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Martin Marietta Materials, Inc (MLM)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 50 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $148.00
1 Month avg volatility: $3.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $139.34 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 34.16%
Volume: 1,261,800 shares. 3 month avg: 814,831 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 04/29/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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MetLife Inc (MET)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 358 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $53.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.85 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.52%
Volume: 6,045,800 shares. 3 month avg: 6,062,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/12/2015 to 06/03/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 357 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $51.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $54.34 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.31%
Volume: 1,362,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,326,609 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 04/30/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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RPC Inc (RES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 137 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $14.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.30 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.35%
Volume: 971,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,817,931 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/11/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Tractor Supply Co (TSCO)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 110 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $88.19
1 Month avg volatility: $1.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $84.89 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.89%
Volume: 784,800 shares. 3 month avg: 739,909 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/23/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Trex Company (TREX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 60 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $50.75
1 Month avg volatility: $1.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.22 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.19%
Volume: 117,500 shares. 3 month avg: 321,152 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/13/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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UGI Corp. (UGI)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 396 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $36.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.76 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.92%
Volume: 406,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,136,348 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/20/2015 to 06/01/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 213 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $126.94
1 Month avg volatility: $3.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $117.68 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.85%
Volume: 1,221,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,708,588 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/13/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ US consumer svcs index fnd (retail) (IYC)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 187 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $144.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $142.03 or 1.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.85%
Volume: 26,500 shares. 3 month avg: 65,066 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/20/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Market Vectors Retail (RTH)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 159 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $75.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.21 or 1.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.53%
Volume: 28,400 shares. 3 month avg: 65,283 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/24/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 497 out of 581
6/4/15 close: $22.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.77 or 1.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -10.12%
Volume: 255,800 shares. 3 month avg: 370,917 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 03/13/2015 to 06/04/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Thursday 6/4/15. Nasdaq Inverted Roof

The index climbed by 0.4% or 22.71 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 549 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 349 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 200 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 87/145 or 60.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 29/61 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This is a chart pattern that I can't recall seeing intraday. It's an inverted roof. It's not a pattern you are probably familiar with since I found it only a few years ago. For more details about the pattern, click on the link.

Notice the brief peak and B mirrors the one at A. Does it follow that the rise from C will mirror as a drop back to C? I don't have an answer but it's something to be aware of. In other words, the index could tumble on Thursday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,804.08    
 Monthly S1  4,951.66  147.57   
 Weekly S2  4,981.04  29.38   
 Monthly Pivot  5,035.74  54.71   
 Weekly S1  5,040.13  4.39   
 Daily S2  5,070.00  29.86   
 Weekly Pivot  5,075.84  5.84   
 Daily S1  5,084.61  8.78   
 Low  5,084.99  0.38   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,096.30  11.31   
 Open  5,098.48  2.18   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,099.23  0.75   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  5,099.61  0.38   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,099.79  0.19   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,103.29  3.49   
 Daily R1  5,114.22  10.93   
 High  5,114.60  0.38   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  5,129.22  14.62   
 Weekly R1  5,134.93  5.72   
 Weekly R2  5,170.64  35.70   
 Monthly R1  5,183.32  12.68   
 Monthly R2  5,267.40  84.09   

Wednesday 6/3/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I show two red lines that amount to bearish divergence. The top line slopes upward as if everything is rosy, but the bottom line slopes downward as if the markets are going to plunge.

From your emails, there's lots of speculation over an impending disaster, a market crash. Could the indicator be supporting such worries?

Look at the indicator over the last several days. It has hovered near 0, bearish to be sure, but maybe ready to bound upward.

That's my guess. So, no, I'm not worried about a crash.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

This shows the bearish signals (red). From this chart, you get no hint that the bearish trend will end soon.

And Yousuf Hamid gave me permission to use his last name. Took me a while to find it but there it is.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/2/15. Dow Intraday: Double Bottom

The index climbed by 0.2% or 29.69 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1247 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 681 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 566 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 93/156 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 25/45 or 55.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index made a double bottom over the last two trading days as the chart shows. Bottoms A and B form the pattern and C is the highest peak between the two bottoms.

Why is C important? Because if the index does not close above it, then you don't have a double bottom. So far the index has not closed above C, but I am hopeful that it will during Tuesday's trading.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,423.38    
 Monthly S1  17,731.87  308.50   
 Weekly S2  17,817.28  85.40   
 Daily S2  17,918.98  101.71   
 Weekly S1  17,928.82  9.84   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  17,979.68  50.85   
 Low  17,982.06  2.38   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  18,017.82  35.76   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,029.34  11.52   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Close  18,040.37  11.03   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  18,041.62  1.25   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  18,042.75  1.14   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,043.95  1.19   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,058.55  14.61   
 Weekly Pivot  18,079.29  20.74   
 Daily R1  18,103.45  24.16   
 High  18,105.83  2.38   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  18,166.52  60.69   
 Weekly R1  18,190.83  24.31   
 Weekly R2  18,341.30  150.46   
 Monthly R1  18,350.11  8.82   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  18,659.86  309.74   

Monday 6/1/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

This post is for Yousuf who had questions about the index.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

Outlined in blue is a symmetrical triangle. The top trendline touches the index 3 times and the bottom one also touches the index multiple times, plenty to qualify it as a valid triangle. The breakout from this triangle was upward when it closed above the top blue trendline.

Recently, the index has formed a new pattern, a channel, following the red lines.

IF the index stays within the up-sloping red lines, then look for the index to climb in a series of steps higher. That is what I expect to happen in the future.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 190.48 points.
Wednesday: Up 121.45 points.
Thursday: Down 36.87 points.
Friday: Down 115.44 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 221.34 points or 1.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 19.33 points or 0.4%.
The S&P 500 index was down 18.67 points or 0.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.9% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     5.7% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     1.0% down from the high of 5,119.83 on 04/27/2015.
     11.1% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     1.3% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     6.4% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Personal income & consumption8:30 MC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 MC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Construction spending10:00 MDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Factory orders10:00 TD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
Auto & truck sales5:00 TC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Trade balance8:30 WC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FEDs Beige book2:00 W?Reports on economic conditions.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Productivity & costs8:30 ThD+Cost of producing a unit of output.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Consumer credit2:00 FD-Measures auto, credit card and other debt.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 05/29/2015, the CPI had:

37 bearish patterns,
2 bullish patterns,
254 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 5.1%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,875  17,943  18,036  18,103  18,196 
Weekly  17,807  17,909  18,069  18,171  18,331 
Monthly  17,413  17,712  18,032  18,330  18,650 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,095  2,101  2,111  2,117  2,127 
Weekly  2,084  2,096  2,111  2,123  2,138 
Monthly  2,037  2,072  2,103  2,139  2,170 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,034  5,052  5,076  5,094  5,117 
Weekly  4,971  5,021  5,066  5,115  5,161 
Monthly  4,794  4,932  5,026  5,164  5,258 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 15.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months up 40.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 26.7%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 42.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 29.8%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 39.3%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
34Triangle, symmetrical
10Triangle, ascending
9Pipe bottom
8Triangle, descending
8Channel
8Head-and-shoulders top
7Rectangle top
5Broadening top
5Broadening bottom
4Rectangle bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Human Resources1. Human Resources
2. Cement and Aggregates2. Cement and Aggregates
3. Retail Building Supply3. Retail Building Supply
4. Furn/Home Furnishings4. Furn/Home Furnishings
5. Biotechnology5. Biotechnology
50. Metal Fabricating50. Machinery
51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment52. Petroleum (Producing)
53. Short ETFs53. Short ETFs
54. Apparel54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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