Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 07/19/2019
  Industrials: 27,154 -68.77 -0.3%  
  Transports: 10,604 +66.69 +0.6%  
  Utilities: 820 -11.25 -1.4%  
  Nasdaq: 8,146 -60.75 -0.7%  
  S&P 500: 2,977 -18.50 -0.6%  
YTD
 +16.4%  
 +15.6%  
 +15.0%  
 +22.8%  
 +18.7%  
  Tom's Targets    Overview: 07/12/2019  
  Down arrow26,500 or 28,000 by 08/01/2019
  Down arrow10,000 or 11,000 by 08/01/2019
  Up arrow850 or 800 by 08/01/2019
  Down arrow7,950 or 8,500 by 08/01/2019
  Down arrow2,900 or 3,075 by 08/01/2019
As of 07/19/2019
  Industrials: 27,154 -68.77 -0.3%  
  Transports: 10,604 +66.69 +0.6%  
  Utilities: 820 -11.25 -1.4%  
  Nasdaq: 8,146 -60.75 -0.7%  
  S&P 500: 2,977 -18.50 -0.6%  
YTD
 +16.4%  
 +15.6%  
 +15.0%  
 +22.8%  
 +18.7%  
  Tom's Targets    Overview: 07/12/2019  
  Down arrow26,500 or 28,000 by 08/01/2019
  Down arrow10,000 or 11,000 by 08/01/2019
  Up arrow850 or 800 by 08/01/2019
  Down arrow7,950 or 8,500 by 08/01/2019
  Down arrow2,900 or 3,075 by 08/01/2019

 

July 2019 Headlines

Archives


Monday 7/22/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I recall drawing this chart before, with the top trendline bending over and the bottom one straight. What does it mean?

The price range (high to low) is narrowing. That means lower volatility. And I recall from playing with Bollinger bands that periods of high volatility follow periods of low volatility. And vice versa.

So we're going to see a big move. When? Haven't a clue.

Notice that the top line is bending over. That means momentum is slowing. To me, that suggests a downward move and yet, Tom's Targets at the top of this page show the utilities as being the only upward move (of the indices I follow) expected going into the start of August.

Go figure. The passage of time changes my view.

It's possible we could see a big move upward. The index was upset today that the FED has signaled a smaller rate decrease than hoped. So maybe we'll see a recovery in the coming days and a push to new highs. So I'll leave my upward target intact.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 27.13 points.
Tuesday: Down 23.53 points.
Wednesday: Down 115.78 points.
Thursday: Up 3.12 points.
Friday: Down 68.77 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 177.83 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 97.65 points or 1.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 37.16 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.9% down from the high of 27,398.68 on 07/16/2019.
     19.9% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     1.4% down from the high of 8,264.78 on 07/15/2019.
     26.2% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     1.4% down from the high of 3,017.80 on 07/15/2019.
     21.8% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,017  27,086  27,214  27,283  27,411 
Weekly  26,877  27,016  27,207  27,346  27,537 
Monthly  25,559  26,356  26,878  27,675  28,196 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,956  2,966  2,986  2,996  3,016 
Weekly  2,944  2,961  2,989  3,005  3,034 
Monthly  2,830  2,903  2,961  3,034  3,091 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,078  8,112  8,179  8,213  8,280 
Weekly  8,052  8,099  8,182  8,229  8,312 
Monthly  7,622  7,884  8,075  8,337  8,527 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 27.2%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 42.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 25.6%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 46.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 27.0%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 39.4%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
18Wolfe wave, bear
11Triangle, symmetrical
8Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Triple top
7Triangle, ascending
6Head-and-shoulders bottom
6Head-and-shoulders top
5Pipe top
4V Bottom Extension
4Broadening top, right-angled and ascending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. IT Services1. IT Services
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Financial Services
3. Financial Services3. Information Services
4. Cement and Aggregates4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Healthcare Information

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 7/19/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

I released a new version of Patternz (7.0.0.14). It has important bug fixes and a number of enhancements.

I released performance statistics (an article) on extended V-tops.

$ $ $

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 28 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 592 stocks searched, or 4.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 12 bullish chart patterns this week and 10 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADTNDead-cat bounce      07/18/201907/18/2019Telecom. Equipment
AABroadening wedge, ascending      06/03/201907/18/2019Aerospace/Defense
BAXTriangle, ascending      07/01/201907/17/2019Medical Supplies
CNOPipe top      07/01/201907/08/2019Insurance (Diversified)
CCKPipe top      07/01/201907/08/2019Packaging and Container
DTriangle, symmetrical      06/24/201907/17/2019Electric Utility (East)
DRQTriangle, descending      07/01/201907/18/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
DTETriangle, ascending      05/30/201907/18/2019Electric Utility (Central)
DUKTriangle, symmetrical      07/01/201907/18/2019Electric Utility (East)
BOOMBroadening bottom      06/14/201907/12/2019Metal Fabricating
XOMTriple top      06/21/201907/12/2019Petroleum (Integrated)
FETriangle, ascending      06/04/201907/18/2019Electric Utility (East)
HONHead-and-shoulders top      06/20/201907/15/2019Aerospace/Defense
HOVDouble Top, Adam and Eve      07/02/201907/15/2019Homebuilding
LANCTriangle, symmetrical      06/13/201907/17/2019Food Processing
NJRTriangle, ascending      07/01/201907/16/2019Natural Gas (Distributor)
NXGNTriangle, symmetrical      07/02/201907/18/2019Healthcare Information
NBLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/01/201907/12/2019Petroleum (Producing)
JWNChannel      06/17/201907/18/2019Retail Store
NUSDead-cat bounce      07/17/201907/17/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
SUMTriangle, descending      06/28/201907/18/2019Cement and Aggregates
TFXTriangle, ascending      06/20/201907/17/2019Diversified Co.
TXTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/01/201907/16/2019Diversified Co.
TOLTriangle, symmetrical      05/16/201907/18/2019Homebuilding
RIGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/01/201907/15/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TGChannel      05/17/201907/18/2019Chemical (Specialty)
SLCADouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/01/201907/15/2019Metals and Mining (Div.)
UGITriangle, symmetrical      03/27/201907/18/2019Natural Gas (Distributor)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/11/2019 and 07/18/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 377 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $12.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.55 or 44.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.94%
Volume: 3,142,800 shares. 3 month avg: 348,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/18/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Alcoa (AA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 524 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $23.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.32 or 12.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.93%
Volume: 10,696,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,976,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 06/03/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Baxter International, Inc. (BAX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 164 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $83.08
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $79.94 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.22%
Volume: 3,649,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,457,589 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/17/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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CNO Financial Group, Inc (CNO)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 443 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $16.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.26 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.95%
Volume: 782,000 shares. 3 month avg: 898,068 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/08/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Crown Holdings Inc (CCK)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 142 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $59.58
1 Month avg volatility: $1.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $62.29 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 43.32%
Volume: 3,725,500 shares. 3 month avg: 762,669 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/08/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Dominion Resources Inc. (D)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 257 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $77.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.27 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.34%
Volume: 3,089,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,249,422 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/24/2019 to 07/17/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dril-Quip Inc (DRQ)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 138 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $46.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.17 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 53.88%
Volume: 324,200 shares. 3 month avg: 557,835 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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DTE Energy Company (DTE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 204 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $131.36
1 Month avg volatility: $1.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $125.75 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.09%
Volume: 804,400 shares. 3 month avg: 979,609 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/30/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Duke Energy Corp (DUK)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 351 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $89.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $86.15 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.04%
Volume: 1,911,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,571,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 5 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $62.18
1 Month avg volatility: $2.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.19 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 77.05%
Volume: 250,500 shares. 3 month avg: 60,208 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/14/2019 to 07/12/2019
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 363 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $74.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.03 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.75%
Volume: 11,424,000 shares. 3 month avg: 15,538,298 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 06/21/2019 to 07/12/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 237 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $44.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.98 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.26%
Volume: 2,542,100 shares. 3 month avg: 4,155,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/04/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 123 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $173.88
1 Month avg volatility: $2.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $178.41 or 2.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 31.61%
Volume: 4,128,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,744,942 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 06/20/2019 to 07/15/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 580 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $6.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.73 or 39.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -59.18%
Volume: 312,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 07/02/2019 to 07/15/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

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Lancaster Colony Corp (LANC)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 507 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $150.80
1 Month avg volatility: $2.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $143.53 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.73%
Volume: 84,500 shares. 3 month avg: 112,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/13/2019 to 07/17/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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New Jersey Resources Corp (NJR)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 282 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $50.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.14 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.27%
Volume: 309,500 shares. 3 month avg: 424,785 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/16/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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NextGen Healthcare Inc (NXGN)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 211 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $20.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.01 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.47%
Volume: 182,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/02/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Noble Energy Inc. (NBL)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 480 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $20.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.17 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.09%
Volume: 5,624,400 shares. 3 month avg: 4,869,591 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/12/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 566 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $29.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.53 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -36.99%
Volume: 3,511,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,612,688 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 06/17/2019 to 07/18/2019

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Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc (NUS)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 567 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $39.34
1 Month avg volatility: $1.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.51 or 10.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -35.86%
Volume: 1,333,600 shares. 3 month avg: 417,486 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/17/2019 to 07/17/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Summit Materials Inc (SUM)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 67 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $18.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.26 or 9.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 49.27%
Volume: 1,112,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,204,178 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/28/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Teleflex Inc (TFX)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 54 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $340.48
1 Month avg volatility: $5.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $321.12 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.72%
Volume: 169,100 shares. 3 month avg: 269,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/20/2019 to 07/17/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Textron Inc (TXT)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 396 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $48.85
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.03 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.22%
Volume: 3,502,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,461,508 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/16/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Toll Brothers (TOL)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 398 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $36.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.13 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.14%
Volume: 1,719,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,237,614 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/16/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $5.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.35 or 12.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -18.88%
Volume: 19,202,200 shares. 3 month avg: 13,612,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/15/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Tredegar Corp (TG)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 415 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $16.73
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.69 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.49%
Volume: 68,100 shares. 3 month avg: 64,734 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/17/2019 to 07/18/2019

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U.S Silica Holdings Inc (SLCA)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 519 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $10.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.49 or 14.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.37%
Volume: 1,984,200 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/15/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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UGI Corp. (UGI)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 459 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $51.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.45 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.32%
Volume: 1,270,500 shares. 3 month avg: 686,418 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/27/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 7/18/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.5% or -37.59 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 348 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 171 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 177 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 168/305 or 55.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 51/102 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

For the last two days the index has been dropping as the two red lines show. They form a chart pattern called a falling wedge.

Those breakout upward 68% of the time, according to the latest statistics.

Even if that's the case, it seems the market is headed lower. I wrote yesterday of bearish divergence in both charts. That's the first time I've seen it happen (to be fair, I wasn't always looking for divergence). The CPI has turned bearish, too, but that signal can disappear if the market advances strongly.

I've swapped direction on "Tom's Targets" at page top. I think we're in for a week of weakness. Maybe longer.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,596.59    
 Monthly S1  7,890.90  294.31   
 Weekly S2  7,979.72  88.82   
 Monthly Pivot  8,068.28  88.56   
 Weekly S1  8,082.47  14.19   
 Daily S2  8,154.17  71.70   
 Weekly Pivot  8,164.06  9.89   
 Daily S1  8,169.69  5.63   
 Low  8,184.66  14.97   
 Close  8,185.21  0.55   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  8,200.18  14.97   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,202.24  2.06   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,207.67  5.43   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,213.09  5.43   
 Daily R1  8,215.70  2.61   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  8,224.00  8.30   
 High  8,230.67  6.67   
 Daily R2  8,246.19  15.52   
 Weekly R1  8,266.81  20.62   
 Weekly R2  8,348.40  81.60   
 Monthly R1  8,362.59  14.19   
 Monthly R2  8,539.97  177.38   

Wednesday 7/17/19. Indicators: Bearish Divergence

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The green divergence lines speak louder than the bullish signal which occurred in June (vertical green bar).

Let's walk through what the chart says.

Notice that the index has climbed but it's forming what looks like a rising wedge (two diagonal, up-sloping green lines). That is, the trend is rising but converging with price cycling up and down in narrowing bands. It suggests price will breakout downward and drop at least to the bottom of the wedge.

Now look at the CPI at the bottom of the chart. The most recent two peaks are pointed lower, as the green line shows. So the index is rising and the indicator is falling. One of them is right.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 36% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 37%.
The fewest was 22% on 07/18/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 490 stocks in my database are down an average of 18% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 19%.
The peak was 12% on 08/29/2018.
And the bottom was 34% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines show improvement compared to a week ago.

However, this chart also shows divergence, most obvious in the red line. A green line connecting the red peaks (indicator line) is trending lower even as the index is climbing.

One of them is right.

Both of these charts suggest coming weakness in the markets. Look out below!

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 7/16/19. Slider Quiz! High and Tight Flag

The index climbed by 0.1% or 27.13 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1343 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 694 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 649 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 190/315 or 60.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/74 or 51.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the high and tight flag chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  25,508.74    
 Monthly S1  26,433.95  925.21   
 Weekly S2  26,451.29  17.34   
 Monthly Pivot  26,883.87  432.58   
 Weekly S1  26,905.22  21.35   
 Weekly Pivot  27,119.51  214.28   
 Daily S2  27,268.82  149.31   
 Low  27,294.17  25.35   
 Daily S1  27,313.99  19.82   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  27,321.11  7.12   
 50% Down from Intraday High  27,329.43  8.32   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  27,337.75  8.32   
 Daily Pivot  27,339.34  1.59   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  27,359.16  19.82   
 Open  27,364.69  5.53   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  27,364.69  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  27,384.51  19.82   
 Daily R2  27,409.86  25.35   
 Weekly R1  27,573.44  163.58   
 Weekly R2  27,787.73  214.28   
 Monthly R1  27,809.08  21.35   
 Monthly R2  28,259.00  449.92   

Monday 7/15/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

There's not much to say.

The index is reaching new all-time highs. Every time I write that, I wonder what 'new' really means if it's making an all-time high. It's redundant.

So I looked at support and drew some lines. Those are in red.

They have acted as support or resistance in the past, but might not in the future.

Peaks AB might be a double top except the pattern didn't confirm. So, you might call it a busted double top, except my definition of a busted pattern means it had to be a real one to begin with. And an unconfirmed double top doesn't cut the mustard.

Still, it suggests a powerful move and that's what we're seeing. How long it lasts might be in the hands of politicians (that is, current events).

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 115.98 points.
Tuesday: Down 22.65 points.
Wednesday: Up 76.71 points.
Thursday: Up 227.88 points.
Friday: Up 243.95 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 409.91 points or 1.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 82.35 points or 1.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 23.36 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.0% down from the high of 27,333.79 on 07/12/2019.
     20.7% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.0% down from the high of 8,245.66 on 07/12/2019.
     27.7% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.0% down from the high of 3,013.92 on 07/12/2019.
     23.3% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 07/12/2019, the CPI had:

11 bearish patterns,
42 bullish patterns,
277 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 79.2%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,069  27,200  27,267  27,399  27,465 
Weekly  26,442  26,887  27,110  27,555  27,779 
Monthly  25,500  26,416  26,875  27,791  28,250 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,998  3,006  3,010  3,018  3,022 
Weekly  2,947  2,980  2,997  3,031  3,048 
Monthly  2,828  2,921  2,967  3,060  3,107 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,186  8,215  8,230  8,259  8,275 
Weekly  7,999  8,122  8,184  8,306  8,368 
Monthly  7,616  7,930  8,088  8,402  8,560 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 34.7%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 42.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 36.0%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 46.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 35.8%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 39.4%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 1 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
7Triangle, symmetrical
7Head-and-shoulders bottom
5Triple top
5Pipe bottom
4Broadening top, right-angled and ascending
4V Bottom Extension
3Triangle, ascending
3Rising wedge
3Head-and-shoulders top
3Double Bottom, Eve and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. IT Services1. IT Services
2. Financial Services2. Healthcare Information
3. Information Services3. Financial Services
4. Computer Software and Svcs4. Information Services
5. Healthcare Information5. Cement and Aggregates

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 7/12/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 9 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 592 stocks searched, or 1.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABTRising wedge      06/20/201907/11/2019Medical Supplies
AEOTriangle, symmetrical      06/13/201907/11/2019Apparel
BLDRFlag      07/01/201907/11/2019Retail Building Supply
HQYTriple bottom      06/26/201907/09/2019Healthcare Information
HPTriangle, ascending      06/07/201907/11/2019Petroleum (Producing)
KMTPipe top      06/24/201907/01/2019Metal Fabricating
PFEHead-and-shoulders top      06/25/201907/10/2019Drug
KWRHorn top      06/17/201907/01/2019Chemical (Specialty)
IHIRising wedge      06/20/201907/11/2019Medical Supplies

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/04/2019 and 07/11/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 155 out of 587
7/11/19 close: $85.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $87.94 or 2.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.58%
Volume: 3,653,600 shares. 3 month avg: 6,008,617 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 06/20/2019 to 07/11/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 517 out of 587
7/11/19 close: $16.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.33 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.97%
Volume: 3,633,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,309,748 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/13/2019 to 07/11/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 84 out of 587
7/11/19 close: $16.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.80 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 54.90%
Volume: 885,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,257,223 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/11/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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HealthEquity, Inc (HQY)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 122 out of 587
7/11/19 close: $68.65
1 Month avg volatility: $2.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.65 or 10.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.09%
Volume: 1,758,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 06/26/2019 to 07/09/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Helmerich and Payne Inc. (HP)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 446 out of 587
7/11/19 close: $51.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.95 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.99%
Volume: 2,157,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,165 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/07/2019 to 07/11/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Kennametal (KMT)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 587
7/11/19 close: $33.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.77 or 5.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.86%
Volume: 1,592,300 shares. 3 month avg: 854,403 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/24/2019 to 07/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 429 out of 587
7/11/19 close: $42.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $44.88 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.53%
Volume: 36,414,500 shares. 3 month avg: 16,141,055 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 06/25/2019 to 07/10/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Quaker Chemical (KWR)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 444 out of 587
7/11/19 close: $183.01
1 Month avg volatility: $4.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $195.71 or 6.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.98%
Volume: 70,600 shares. 3 month avg: 69,343 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 06/17/2019 to 07/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 7%.
Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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DJ US Medical devices index fund (IHI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 176 out of 587
7/11/19 close: $244.65
1 Month avg volatility: $2.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $249.39 or 1.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 22.44%
Volume: 112,700 shares. 3 month avg: 82,220 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 06/20/2019 to 07/11/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Thursday 7/11/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.7% or 60.8 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 418 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 256 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 162 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 61.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 168/304 or 55.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 51/102 or 50.0% of the time.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

Had a T-storm come through last evening and it knocked out power for 4 hours. So I'm writing this post about 1/2 hour after the market opened.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The two red lines outline a symmetrical triangle. No word on the breakout direction when I took the pic, but this morning, the breakout is upward with a throwback to the apex as I write this.

Another pattern is at AB. This double top spans the July 4 holiday and it confirms as a valid double top when the index closes below the bottom of the pattern at C.

In this case, though, the index didn't drop far before making a slow recovery. That recovery busts the downward move and such an event can mean a lasting upward move.

As to the triangle, my guess -- and it's only a guess -- is that the index will close higher today. The pattern is just above support setup by the AB peaks, so that should help the index maintain altitude.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,009.16    
 Monthly S1  7,605.84  596.69   
 Monthly Pivot  7,888.91  283.06   
 Weekly S2  8,031.92  143.01   
 Weekly S1  8,117.22  85.31   
 Daily S2  8,129.19  11.97   
 Weekly Pivot  8,144.60  15.41   
 Low  8,160.56  15.96   
 Daily S1  8,165.86  5.30   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Open  8,183.19  17.33   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,186.55  3.36   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,194.58  8.03   
 Daily Pivot  8,197.23  2.65   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  8,202.53  5.30   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,202.61  0.08   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  8,228.60  25.99   
 Weekly R1  8,229.90  1.30   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R1  8,233.90  4.00   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  8,257.28  23.38   
 Daily R2  8,265.27  7.99   
 Monthly R1  8,485.59  220.32   
 Monthly R2  8,768.66  283.06   

Wednesday 7/10/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Although the indicator remains bullish, it's a near thing. If you look at the thin blue indicator line near the bottom of the chart, you'll see that it's been trending lower for about 2 weeks.

I keep looking for bearish divergence, but it's not there. So far. Because the indicator can rebound quickly, it's possible that this is momentary weakness and nothing more.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 37% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 34%.
The fewest was 22% on 07/18/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 490 stocks in my database are down an average of 19% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 12% on 08/29/2018.
And the bottom was 34% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines deteriorated from a week ago, but it's tough to see on the chart. The red line shows the clearest indication of weakness.

Notice how the red line is struggling to exceed the prior peak in May. Hmm. Overhead resistance? Could be.

Based on this chart, it tells me a weak period is here, but I'm not convinced. Maybe it's because I've been buy more shares recently (think buy-the-dip).

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 7/9/19. Slider Quiz: Flags!

The index dropped by -0.4% or -115.98 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 906 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 462 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 444 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 190/314 or 60.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/74 or 51.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the flag chart pattern. It's timely because of the July 4 holiday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  23,865.47    
 Monthly S1  25,335.81  1,470.33   
 Monthly Pivot  26,150.90  815.10   
 Weekly S2  26,446.33  295.42   
 Weekly S1  26,626.23  179.91   
 Daily S2  26,702.45  76.21   
 Low  26,744.87  42.42   
 Daily S1  26,754.29  9.42   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,780.88  26.59   
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,792.01  11.13   
 Weekly Pivot  26,796.12  4.11   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  26,796.72  0.60   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,803.13  6.41   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  26,806.14  3.01   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  26,835.64  29.50   
 High  26,839.14  3.50   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  26,848.56  9.42   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  26,890.99  42.42   
 Weekly R1  26,976.02  85.04   
 Weekly R2  27,145.91  169.88   
 Monthly R1  27,621.24  475.33   
 Monthly R2  28,436.33  815.10   

Monday 7/8/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

The index, at week's end, has bumped up against overhead resistance. I show that as a horizontal red line at A. Below that, is a support area, shown by a green horizontal line.

You might say that the composite is bouncing between the two lines, forming a trading range.

But which way will it breakout?

The answer is a guess because no one knows for sure. My guess is upward. Everything seems to be going well, so far. Of course, the US/Iran situation can become worse. The US/China trade war could get worse. And who knows that antic Trump will stage next in his presidential reality show to upset things and keep the focus on him.

I'm hoping the markets will see the strong employment numbers as a reason to cheer, not worry that the FED will keep interest rates steady or raise them soon.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 117.47 points.
Tuesday: Up 69.25 points.
Wednesday: Up 179.32 points.
Friday: Down 43.88 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 322.16 points or 1.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 155.55 points or 1.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 48.65 points or 1.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.2% down from the high of 26,966.00 on 07/03/2019.
     18.9% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.2% down from the high of 8,176.08 on 04/29/2019.
     26.4% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 2,995.84 on 07/03/2019.
     22.4% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 07/05/2019, the CPI had:

7 bearish patterns,
19 bullish patterns,
349 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 73.1%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  26,651  26,787  26,869  27,004  27,086 
Weekly  26,485  26,704  26,835  27,053  27,185 
Monthly  23,904  25,413  26,190  27,699  28,475 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,958  2,974  2,984  3,000  3,010 
Weekly  2,936  2,963  2,979  3,007  3,023 
Monthly  2,638  2,814  2,905  3,081  3,172 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,064  8,113  8,142  8,191  8,221 
Weekly  8,018  8,090  8,131  8,203  8,244 
Monthly  6,996  7,579  7,875  8,458  8,755 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 47.5%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 42.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 47.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 46.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 49.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 39.4%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 8 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
12Head-and-shoulders bottom
8Pipe bottom
8Triangle, symmetrical
7Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
4Double Bottom, Eve and Eve
4Broadening top
3Broadening top, right-angled and ascending
2Broadening bottom
2Double Top, Adam and Eve
2Triangle, ascending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. IT Services1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Healthcare Information2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Financial Services3. IT Services
4. Information Services4. Healthcare Information
5. Cement and Aggregates5. Financial Services

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 7/5/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 10 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 593 stocks searched, or 1.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADPHead-and-shoulders top      06/11/201907/01/2019IT Services
THGRoof, inverted      06/17/201907/03/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HSCTriangle, symmetrical      06/06/201906/27/2019Diversified Co.
IDABroadening top, right-angled and ascending      05/08/201907/03/2019Electric Utility (West)
ITWTriangle, symmetrical      06/11/201907/03/2019Metal Fabricating
OLNTriangle, symmetrical      05/31/201907/03/2019Chemical (Basic)
OXMThree Falling Peaks      06/13/201907/01/2019Apparel
PHMBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      04/24/201906/27/2019Homebuilding
RLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      06/24/201907/01/2019Apparel
SLGNTriangle, symmetrical      05/31/201906/27/2019Packaging and Container

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/26/2019 and 07/03/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 180 out of 588
7/3/19 close: $164.09
1 Month avg volatility: $2.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $169.18 or 3.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 25.14%
Volume: 1,938,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,140,888 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 06/11/2019 to 07/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Hanover Insurance Group, The (THG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 353 out of 588
7/3/19 close: $128.70
1 Month avg volatility: $2.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $133.84 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.22%
Volume: 143,200 shares. 3 month avg: 201,215 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 06/17/2019 to 07/03/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 122 out of 588
7/3/19 close: $26.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.38 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 35.80%
Volume: 246,000 shares. 3 month avg: 523,465 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/06/2019 to 06/27/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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IDACORP Inc (IDA)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 305 out of 588
7/3/19 close: $103.59
1 Month avg volatility: $1.71. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $107.39 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.32%
Volume: 551,400 shares. 3 month avg: 199,551 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 05/08/2019 to 07/03/2019
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 265 out of 588
7/3/19 close: $150.10
1 Month avg volatility: $2.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $144.18 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.48%
Volume: 688,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,139,580 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/11/2019 to 07/03/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Olin Corp. (OLN)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 441 out of 588
7/3/19 close: $21.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.44 or 9.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.32%
Volume: 951,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,697,154 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/31/2019 to 07/03/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Oxford Industries (OXM)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 466 out of 588
7/3/19 close: $72.80
1 Month avg volatility: $2.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.86 or 7.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.48%
Volume: 120,300 shares. 3 month avg: 144,562 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Three Falling Peaks reversal pattern from 06/13/2019 to 07/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 12%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 33% of the time.

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Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 197 out of 588
7/3/19 close: $32.68
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.35 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 25.74%
Volume: 1,653,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,812,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 04/24/2019 to 06/27/2019
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 431 out of 588
7/3/19 close: $110.49
1 Month avg volatility: $2.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $117.07 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.79%
Volume: 1,095,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,365,482 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/24/2019 to 07/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Silgan Holdings Inc (SLGN)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 94 out of 588
7/3/19 close: $31.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.05 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.83%
Volume: 691,800 shares. 3 month avg: 499,285 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/31/2019 to 06/27/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Wednesday 7/3/19. Midyear Forecast

Picture of the Dow industrials and predicted path.

I show the Dow industrials plotted on the daily scale, year to date. The red line is the predicted path of the Dow.

The prediction is a mechanical thing, where I sum the daily Dow values from the start of data until today, grouping those with years ending in 9 (like 1929, 1939, etc). The theory is that the markets show a 10-year cycle. (I didn't invent this, by the way).

You can read more at this link.

If you flip the red line, it would probably look better (I wanted to do that, but couldn't figure out how. Sorry.)

Picture of the Dow industrials and predicted path.

This chart is the same as the last one, but after I removed the 2007-2009 bear market from the data. The thinking here is that a bear market won't happen in 2019, so excluding that one-time event makes sense. Clearly we haven't had a bear market since then.

Notice that the red line tracks the Dow better. The markets should continue higher until late August when fall weakness sets in and takes the Dow to the October low.

Picture of the Dow industrials and predicted path.

Of the three charts, this one is the most accurate (because of the way the averages are calculated).

It's shown on the weekly scale but it includes bear market data.

I drew horizontal and vertical lines so you can more easily see where peaks or valleys will occur and at what price.

If the chart is correct, then look for the Dow to peak in January 2020 and drop for about 6 weeks before recovering.

Of course, the big decline will occur in May 2021 when the Dow drops from 30,700 to about 26,000 or 16%. That misses being a bear market by four percentage points, but it'll still hurt your portfolio. Buying in September of that year will be a terrific idea.

Keep in mind that these predictions are rarely accurate but you can see for yourself at the link. Years 2009 and 2016 were accurate at year end. Years 2011 and 2013 got the trend right.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 7/2/19. Slider Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.4% or 117.47 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1094 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 577 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 517 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 189/313 or 60.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/74 or 51.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the rising wedge chart pattern.

$ $ $

I released research on V-bottoms.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  23,874.99    
 Monthly S1  25,296.21  1,421.22   
 Monthly Pivot  26,101.79  805.58   
 Weekly S2  26,321.89  220.10   
 Daily S2  26,467.00  145.11   
 Weekly S1  26,519.66  52.66   
 Daily S1  26,592.21  72.55   
 Low  26,616.21  24.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot  26,663.09  46.88   
 Close  26,717.43  54.34   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,721.04  3.61   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  26,741.43  20.38   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,753.43  12.00   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,785.81  32.38   
 Open  26,805.86  20.05   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  26,860.86  55.00   
 Daily R1  26,866.64  5.78   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 High  26,890.64  24.00   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R2  27,004.29  113.65   
 Daily R2  27,015.86  11.57   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  27,523.01  507.15   
 Monthly R2  28,328.59  805.58   

Monday 7/1/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This chart reminds me of a head-and-shoulders top chart pattern.

I show that on the chart as LS for the left shoulder, head in the middle, and RS for right shoulder.

The right shoulder isn't symmetrical in height with the left shoulder, so that's a problem. It's possible that the right shoulder mirrors the bump to the right of the left shoulder. I show that mirror as AB.

That means the transports will continue to rise to meet the height of the left shoulder (a rise to the RS label, if it works perfectly).

There's an additional problem, of course. The chart pattern has to confirm. And that means the index has to close below the neckline (drawn on the chart as a thin brown line). The neckline is an imaginary line connecting the two armpits. In this case, I'd draw it horizontally starting from the valley below the green line. That would get you into a trade sooner than the traditional neckline approach.

The green line at this link shows the traditional view of a neckline.

If the chart pattern behaves perfectly, then look for the transports to rise to the RS label before tumbling to close below the price of the valley below the green line (C, shown as a thin blue line).

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 8.41 points.
Tuesday: Down 179.32 points.
Wednesday: Down 11.4 points.
Thursday: Down 10.24 points.
Friday: Up 73.38 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 119.17 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 25.47 points or 0.3%.
The S&P 500 index was down 8.7 points or 0.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.1% down from the high of 26,907.37 on 06/21/2019.
     17.5% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     2.1% down from the high of 8,176.08 on 04/29/2019.
     24.0% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.8% down from the high of 2,964.15 on 06/21/2019.
     20.4% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/28/2019, the CPI had:

4 bearish patterns,
68 bullish patterns,
290 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 94.4%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  26,471  26,536  26,587  26,651  26,703 
Weekly  26,283  26,441  26,624  26,783  26,965 
Monthly  23,836  25,218  26,063  27,445  28,289 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,923  2,933  2,938  2,947  2,953 
Weekly  2,895  2,918  2,937  2,960  2,978 
Monthly  2,643  2,792  2,878  3,028  3,114 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,944  7,975  7,993  8,024  8,041 
Weekly  7,809  7,908  7,978  8,076  8,146 
Monthly  6,999  7,503  7,796  8,299  8,592 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 27.4%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 54.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 25.7%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 55.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 27.2%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 47.4%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
67Pipe bottom
21Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
11Triangle, symmetrical
10Double Bottom, Eve and Eve
8Triple bottom
6Head-and-shoulders bottom
4Triangle, ascending
4Broadening top
4Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
4Double Bottom, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Healthcare Information
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Cement and Aggregates
3. IT Services3. Financial Services
4. Healthcare Information4. IT Services
5. Financial Services5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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