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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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July 2016 Headlines


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Friday 7/29/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 25 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 634 stocks searched, or 3.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 10 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AESDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/14/201607/25/2016Electric Utility (East)
AMWDTriangle, symmetrical      07/14/201607/28/2016Building Materials
AVPTriangle, symmetrical      06/23/201607/28/2016Toiletries/Cosmetics
BECNBroadening top      07/11/201607/28/2016Retail Building Supply
CNARising wedge      06/23/201607/27/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
DDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/06/201607/25/2016Electric Utility (East)
BOOMPipe top      07/11/201607/18/2016Metal Fabricating
FFGTriangle, symmetrical      07/14/201607/27/2016Insurance (Life)
FEYETriangle, ascending      06/20/201607/27/2016Computer Software and Svcs
FEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/13/201607/25/2016Electric Utility (East)
GEScallop, ascending and inverted      06/27/201607/28/2016Diversified Co.
GXPHead-and-shoulders top      06/10/201607/22/2016Electric Utility (Central)
HSCFlag      07/18/201607/28/2016Diversified Co.
INFNDead-cat bounce      07/28/201607/28/2016Telecom. Equipment
IPARTriple bottom      06/27/201607/22/2016Toiletries/Cosmetics
MGEETriangle, symmetrical      06/30/201607/26/2016Electric Utility (Central)
NSHRounding top      04/05/201607/28/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
OLNDead-cat bounce      07/22/201607/22/2016Chemical (Basic)
PEGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/01/201607/22/2016Electric Utility (East)
RLBroadening top      07/14/201607/28/2016Apparel
SKXDead-cat bounce      07/22/201607/22/2016Shoe
TERTriple top      07/13/201607/28/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
UGITriangle, symmetrical      07/06/201607/28/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
WMTTriangle, symmetrical      07/11/201607/26/2016Retail Store
YUMETriangle, symmetrical      07/06/201607/28/2016Advertising

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/21/2016 and 07/28/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
AES Corp (AES)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 113 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $12.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.78 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 28.00%
Volume: 2,244,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,640,066 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/14/2016 to 07/25/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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American Woodmark Corp (AMWD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 403 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $75.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.17 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.91%
Volume: 177,300 shares. 3 month avg: 225,845 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/14/2016 to 07/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Avon Products (AVP)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 100 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $3.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.48 or 10.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.20%
Volume: 1,678,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,998,231 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/23/2016 to 07/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 276 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $47.64
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.91 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.69%
Volume: 412,900 shares. 3 month avg: 780,648 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/11/2016 to 07/28/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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CNA Financial Corp (CNA)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 551 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $32.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.13 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.76%
Volume: 123,700 shares. 3 month avg: 135,092 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 06/23/2016 to 07/27/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Dominion Resources Inc. (D)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 442 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $76.94
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.19 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.75%
Volume: 2,360,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,678,358 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/06/2016 to 07/25/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 16 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $10.06
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.29 or 12.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 43.92%
Volume: 34,100 shares. 3 month avg: 114,960 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/11/2016 to 07/18/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 480 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $62.08
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.71 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.45%
Volume: 12,500 shares. 3 month avg: 30,771 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/14/2016 to 07/27/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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FireEye Inc (FEYE)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 186 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $18.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.00 or 17.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.78%
Volume: 12,652,200 shares. 3 month avg: 5,196,112 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/20/2016 to 07/27/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 437 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $35.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.60 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.47%
Volume: 5,190,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,197,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/13/2016 to 07/25/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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General Electric Co (GE)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 425 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $31.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.34 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.32%
Volume: 30,296,700 shares. 3 month avg: 35,408,569 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/28/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Great Plains Energy (GXP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 441 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $29.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.81 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.08%
Volume: 1,212,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,522,925 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 06/10/2016 to 07/22/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Top

Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 39 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $9.68
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.68 or 10.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.84%
Volume: 552,600 shares. 3 month avg: 886,823 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 07/18/2016 to 07/28/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/26/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/26/2016.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 622 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $8.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.42 or 13.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -54.14%
Volume: 21,151,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,140,803 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/28/2016 to 07/28/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Inter Parfums Inc. (IPAR)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 168 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $32.63
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.23 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 36.99%
Volume: 121,800 shares. 3 month avg: 112,023 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/22/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 309 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $55.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.63 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.54%
Volume: 63,600 shares. 3 month avg: 96,800 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/30/2016 to 07/26/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

NuStar GP Holdings (NSH)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 47 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $22.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.72 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.86%
Volume: 71,400 shares. 3 month avg: 125,294 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rounding top continuation pattern from 04/05/2016 to 07/28/2016
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Olin Corp. (OLN)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 61 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $21.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.88 or 8.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 22.60%
Volume: 2,293,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,209,723 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/22/2016 to 07/22/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Public Service Enterprise Group PEG (PEG)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 391 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $45.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.71 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.52%
Volume: 2,566,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,067,378 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/01/2016 to 07/22/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 585 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $96.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $102.89 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.08%
Volume: 1,063,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,473,509 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/14/2016 to 07/28/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/04/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/04/2016.
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Skechers USA Inc (SKX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 591 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $24.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.51 or 10.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.39%
Volume: 3,003,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,075,005 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/22/2016 to 07/22/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Teradyne Inc. (TER)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 532 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $20.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.15 or 8.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.06%
Volume: 7,153,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,857,457 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 07/13/2016 to 07/28/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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UGI Corp. (UGI)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 86 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $45.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.54 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 34.06%
Volume: 679,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,130,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/06/2016 to 07/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 373 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $73.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.07 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.48%
Volume: 4,603,200 shares. 3 month avg: 8,899,731 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/11/2016 to 07/26/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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YuMe Inc (YUME)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 408 out of 626
7/28/16 close: $3.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.20 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.85%
Volume: 55,700 shares. 3 month avg: 116,506 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/06/2016 to 07/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 7/28/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.6% or 29.76 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 468 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 290 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 178 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 109/188 or 58.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 37/75 or 49.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The two peaks at A and B form a chart pattern called a double top.

It won't become an actual double top until the index closes below the red line (C). That line marks the bottom of the valley between two the tops.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

 

 

My latest book (shown) has zoomed up to number one on Amazon.com in the new releases category for business investments.

 

I remember when my first book appeared. It made it to number five in Australia.

 

You can buy a copy of the book by clicking on the link.

 

 

$ $ $

 

 

 

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,409.92    
 Monthly S1  4,774.87  364.94   
 Monthly Pivot  4,939.19  164.33   
 Weekly S2  5,015.24  76.05   
 Weekly S1  5,077.53  62.28   
 Weekly Pivot  5,090.52  13.00   
 Daily S2  5,106.78  16.25   
 Low  5,120.66  13.88   
 Daily S1  5,123.29  2.63   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,132.27  8.98   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,135.86  3.59   
 Daily Pivot  5,137.18  1.32   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,139.45  2.27   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  5,139.81  0.36   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  5,143.84  4.03   
 High  5,151.06  7.22   
 Weekly R1  5,152.81  1.75   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R1  5,153.69  0.89   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  5,165.80  12.11   
 Daily R2  5,167.58  1.77   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  5,304.14  136.56   
 Monthly R2  5,468.46  164.33   

Wednesday 7/27/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The recent dip in the indicator didn't translate into a lasting bearish signal. The last green bar on the right is the most recent signal, a bullish one.

This event surprises me because I thought and still think that the indices will retrace. But it always seems to take longer than I expect for that to occur, even when I factor in a longer delay. Go figure.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 32% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 33%.
The fewest was 31% on 07/31/2015.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 531 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 15% on 07/22/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The red line shows a sawtooth pattern as it struggles for direction. The above numbers say there was a slight improvement in the stocks I follow during the past week. Fewer of them are in bear market territory.

The blue line is flat, saying that the average stock I follow hasn't improved enough to change the overall average during the past two weeks.

It's possible that the two lines are showing bearish divergence. One is trending up and one is flat. I think it suggests weakness will come soon.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 7/26/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.4% or -77.79 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 882 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 449 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 433 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 120/199 or 60.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/60 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The red line is a support area.

If you believe in price mirrors, then look for the index to follow the green line. It should make a smaller peak and then drop.

Why would it do this? It's earnings season, so maybe we'll get a one-day bump after the report of good earnings followed by a drop of a few days when additional earnings push it lower.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,500.45    
 Monthly S1  17,496.76  996.30   
 Monthly Pivot  18,059.38  562.63   
 Weekly S2  18,375.91  316.52   
 Daily S2  18,397.59  21.68   
 Weekly S1  18,434.48  36.90   
 Daily S1  18,445.32  10.84   
 Low  18,452.62  7.29   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,491.88  39.26   
 Close  18,493.06  1.18   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  18,500.36  7.30   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,504.01  3.65   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,516.13  12.13   
 Weekly Pivot  18,528.25  12.11   
 Daily R1  18,548.09  19.85   
 Open  18,554.49  6.40   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  18,555.39  0.90   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  18,586.82  31.43   
 Daily R2  18,603.13  16.30   
 Weekly R2  18,680.59  77.46   
 Monthly R1  19,055.69  375.10   
 Monthly R2  19,618.31  562.63   

Monday 7/25/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

A broadening top appears outlined here in red.

This chart pattern broke out upward at A and continued to move up.

However, recent price action has lost momentum as the green line shows. Will the upward move turn down now?

I think so, but we'll have to wait and see.

Earnings season is upon us and the Federal Reserve reports this week, so that could add to the turbulence. From the companies already reporting, I see lots of plunging prices as weak earnings takes the stocks down. That will put pressure on the index.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 16.5 points.
Tuesday: Up 25.96 points.
Wednesday: Up 36.02 points.
Thursday: Down 77.8 points.
Friday: Up 53.62 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 54.3 points or 0.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 70.57 points or 1.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 13.29 points or 0.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.3% down from the high of 18,622.01 on 07/20/2016.
     20.2% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     0.1% down from the high of 5,103.52 on 07/22/2016.
     21.2% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     0.0% down from the high of 2,175.63 on 07/20/2016.
     20.2% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
New home sales10:00 TC+Shows sales of single-family homes.
Durable goods orders8:30 WBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Rate decision2:00 W?The Federal Reserves reports on interest rate changes.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Gross domestic product8:30 FBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 FBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Michigan sentiment10:00 FB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 07/22/2016, the CPI had:

10 bearish patterns,
51 bullish patterns,
359 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 83.6%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,465  18,518  18,545  18,598  18,624 
Weekly  18,402  18,486  18,554  18,639  18,707 
Monthly  16,526  17,549  18,085  19,108  19,644 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,159  2,167  2,171  2,179  2,183 
Weekly  2,153  2,164  2,170  2,181  2,187 
Monthly  1,930  2,053  2,114  2,237  2,298 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,050  5,075  5,089  5,114  5,129 
Weekly  5,002  5,051  5,077  5,126  5,153 
Monthly  4,397  4,748  4,926  5,278  5,455 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 4 weeks up 17.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 6 months up 7.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 4 weeks up 17.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 5 months up 18.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 4 weeks up 18.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 46.6%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
36Pipe bottom
22Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
19Broadening top
19Head-and-shoulders bottom
12Double Top, Adam and Adam
12Triangle, symmetrical
11Flag
6Triple bottom
6Triple top
6Head-and-shoulders top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Natural Gas (Diversified)3. Natural Gas (Diversified)
4. Metal Fabricating4. Metal Fabricating
5. Semiconductor5. Metals and Mining (Div.)
50. Drug50. Telecom. Equipment
51. Securities Brokerage51. Retail (Special Lines)
52. Information Services52. Drug
53. Retail Store53. Information Services
54. Retail (Special Lines)54. Securities Brokerage
55. Biotechnology55. Biotechnology
56. Apparel56. Apparel
57. Short ETFs57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 7/22/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 19 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 634 stocks searched, or 3.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
CFFlag      07/18/201607/21/2016Chemical (Basic)
CRHFlag      07/15/201607/21/2016Cement and Aggregates
EIGITriangle, descending      05/12/201607/21/2016E-Commerce
LANCTriangle, ascending      06/30/201607/21/2016Food Processing
LENFlag      07/11/201607/21/2016Homebuilding
MONTriple bottom      06/27/201607/15/2016Chemical (Diversified)
NETriangle, descending      06/01/201607/21/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PKEBroadening top      04/22/201607/20/2016Chemical (Specialty)
PDCOPennant      07/12/201607/21/2016Medical Supplies
PPLTriangle, symmetrical      06/27/201607/19/2016Electric Utility (East)
PGRBroadening top, right-angled and descending      04/19/201607/21/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
PHMFlag      07/11/201607/20/2016Homebuilding
ROKFlag      07/14/201607/21/2016Diversified Co.
RDCTriangle, descending      06/16/201607/21/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TXTFlag      07/12/201607/21/2016Diversified Co.
TRVDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/01/201607/15/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
PPHBroadening bottom      05/03/201607/21/2016Drug
XLIBroadening top      05/17/201607/20/2016Investment Co. (Domestic)
USOFalling wedge      06/16/201607/21/2016Petroleum (Producing)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/14/2016 and 07/21/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 579 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $26.29
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.06 or 8.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -35.58%
Volume: 3,077,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,920,686 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 07/18/2016 to 07/21/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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CRH plc (CRH)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 367 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $29.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.14 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.98%
Volume: 1,332,100 shares. 3 month avg: 875,520 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 07/15/2016 to 07/21/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Endurance International Group Holdings (EIGI)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 571 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $8.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.45 or 8.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.04%
Volume: 169,400 shares. 3 month avg: 535,662 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/12/2016 to 07/21/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Lancaster Colony Corp (LANC)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 449 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $128.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $123.18 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.07%
Volume: 94,400 shares. 3 month avg: 145,052 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/30/2016 to 07/21/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Lennar Corp. Cl A (LEN)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 302 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $48.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.65 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.12%
Volume: 1,867,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,360,535 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 07/11/2016 to 07/21/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Monsanto Co (MON)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 328 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $106.10
1 Month avg volatility: $2.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $100.58 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.69%
Volume: 1,254,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,052,543 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/15/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Noble Corporation (NE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 467 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $7.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.16 or 15.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -24.93%
Volume: 6,310,500 shares. 3 month avg: 9,549,131 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/01/2016 to 07/21/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Park Electrochemical (PKE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 474 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $16.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.35 or 10.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.69%
Volume: 29,200 shares. 3 month avg: 51,598 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/22/2016 to 07/20/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Patterson Companies Inc. (PDCO)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 240 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $49.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.80 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.11%
Volume: 693,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,060,189 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 07/12/2016 to 07/21/2016
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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PPL Corporation (PPL)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 412 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $37.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.61 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.79%
Volume: 3,031,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,995,606 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/19/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Progressive Corp (PGR)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 452 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $32.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.72 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.67%
Volume: 2,636,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,061,492 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 04/19/2016 to 07/21/2016
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 105 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $21.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.80 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.71%
Volume: 13,366,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,899,755 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 07/11/2016 to 07/20/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 155 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $118.46
1 Month avg volatility: $2.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $113.72 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.45%
Volume: 762,000 shares. 3 month avg: 831,698 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 07/14/2016 to 07/21/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Rowan Companies (RDC)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 74 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $16.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.26 or 14.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.71%
Volume: 2,432,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,259,078 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/16/2016 to 07/21/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Textron Inc (TXT)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 482 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $39.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.40 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.67%
Volume: 1,730,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,823,015 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 07/12/2016 to 07/21/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Travelers Companies Inc, The (TRV)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 421 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $116.72
1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $119.59 or 2.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.42%
Volume: 1,807,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,553,691 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/01/2016 to 07/15/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Market Vectors Pharmaceutical (PPH)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 542 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $61.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.55 or 2.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.58%
Volume: 14,600 shares. 3 month avg: 61,652 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 05/03/2016 to 07/21/2016
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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SPDR Industrial Select Sector (XLI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 285 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $58.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.94 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.75%
Volume: 7,583,300 shares. 3 month avg: 12,832,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/17/2016 to 07/20/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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United States Oil (USO)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 219 out of 626
7/21/16 close: $10.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.87 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.64%
Volume: 20,311,600 shares. 3 month avg: 24,739,438 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 06/16/2016 to 07/21/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thursday 7/21/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.1% or 53.56 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 167 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 108 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 59 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 64.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 109/187 or 58.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 37/75 or 49.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I don't see much on this chart to indicate how the index will perform on Thursday.

However, if you're an Elliott waver, the index has made a stair-step move higher. I only get to see ten days of price action on the chart, so it's hard to determine if this is wave three starting or wave five. Regardless, the index should move higher. If it's wave five, then look for an ABC correction (a step down). If it's wave three, then look for another stair-step move higher.

$ $ $

I released version 5 of Patternz. This version should work with Windows 7 and more recent operating systems.

The old version used 1993 tools and you might think that this version has to be better, but you'd be mistaken. The charts suck because I bought a custom control back then that knew how to draw candlesticks on a white background (they outline each stick in black). This version doesn't do that and it's flexibility is diminished, too.

But I added some features to the chart form that are handy. I also improved the pattern recognition algorithms.

I'll be issuing new versions in the future with enhancements.

Let me know if you have problems with it.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,432.19    
 Monthly S1  4,761.06  328.87   
 Monthly Pivot  4,903.12  142.06   
 Weekly S2  4,968.58  65.46   
 Weekly S1  5,029.25  60.68   
 Daily S2  5,036.37  7.12   
 Weekly Pivot  5,037.22  0.85   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  5,053.92  16.70   
 Open  5,061.60  7.68   
 Daily S1  5,063.15  1.55   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,070.85  7.70   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,076.08  5.23   
 Daily Pivot  5,080.70  4.62   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,081.32  0.62   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  5,089.93  8.61   
 Weekly R1  5,097.89  7.96   
 High  5,098.25  0.36   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  5,105.86  7.61   
 Daily R1  5,107.48  1.62   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Daily R2  5,125.03  17.55   
 Monthly R1  5,231.99  106.96   
 Monthly R2  5,374.05  142.06   

Wednesday 7/20/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The stock chart shows the indicator is still bullish (that is, the green line is the most recent signal).

However, if you look at the indicator (thin blue line), you can see that it's trending down. That suggests the indictor will turn bearish and the index will follow it lower.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 33% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 35%.
The fewest was 29% on 07/22/2015.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 531 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 15% on 07/18/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The red line shows improvement, meaning fewer stocks in my database are bearish.

The blue line also shows improvement. The average percentage decline from their one-year peak in the stocks I follow is 15%, an improvement from 17%.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 7/19/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.1% or 16.5 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1291 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 663 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 628 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 119/198 or 60.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/60 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The average shows a chart pattern called an ascending triangle, highlighted here in red.

The breakout from that triangle is upward 64% of the time, according to my book, Chart Patterns: After the Buy (pictured here, below).

That suggests we'll see the index close above the top of the triangle. However, I have my doubts.

Chart Patterns: After the Buy

I think the index looks tired, as if it's just on the brink of tipping over and falling.

It's been said that the index needs a push to move upward but it can fall on its own accord.

We'll have to wait and see what happens.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,556.84    
 Monthly S1  17,544.94  988.11   
 Weekly S2  18,021.44  476.49   
 Monthly Pivot  18,051.19  29.75   
 Weekly S1  18,277.24  226.06   
 Weekly Pivot  18,417.34  140.09   
 Daily S2  18,460.05  42.71   
 Low  18,489.84  29.79   
 Daily S1  18,496.55  6.71   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,515.16  18.61   
 Open  18,521.55  6.39   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,522.98  1.43   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  18,526.34  3.36   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,530.81  4.47   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  18,533.05  2.24   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  18,556.13  23.08   
 Daily R1  18,562.84  6.71   
 Daily R2  18,592.63  29.79   
 Weekly R1  18,673.14  80.51   
 Weekly R2  18,813.24  140.09   
 Monthly R1  19,039.29  226.06   
 Monthly R2  19,545.54  506.24   

Monday 7/18/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

The broadening top takes shape, outlined here in red.

It's not as nice as the one I showed last week in the Dow industrials, because of only four trendline touches. The start and end points -- since price passes through the line instead of turning there in a minor high or low -- doesn't count as a touch.

I drew this broadening top to show that the index has closed above the top of it at A. That means an upward breakout.

However, look at how far the index has risen from the low at B. That's a nice upward run with only one, minor, pause (at C).

I expect the index to retrace a portion of the B to A rise. That retrace could take the index back down to C.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 80.19 points.
Tuesday: Up 120.74 points.
Wednesday: Up 24.45 points.
Thursday: Up 134.29 points.
Friday: Up 10.14 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 369.81 points or 2.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 72.83 points or 1.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 31.84 points or 1.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.2% down from the high of 18,557.43 on 07/15/2016.
     19.8% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     0.3% down from the high of 5,045.18 on 07/14/2016.
     19.5% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     0.3% down from the high of 2,169.05 on 07/15/2016.
     19.4% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Building permits8:30 TB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Housing starts8:30 TB-Number of homes beginning construction.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Existing home sales10:00 ThCCounts sales of used homes.
Leading indicators10:00 ThD-Summary of already known reports.

Options Expiration

VIX expires on Wednesday.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 07/15/2016, the CPI had:

1 bearish patterns,
29 bullish patterns,
426 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 96.7%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,429  18,473  18,515  18,559  18,601 
Weekly  18,016  18,266  18,412  18,662  18,808 
Monthly  16,551  17,534  18,046  19,028  19,540 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,149  2,155  2,162  2,169  2,175 
Weekly  2,117  2,139  2,154  2,177  2,192 
Monthly  1,930  2,046  2,107  2,223  2,285 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,005  5,017  5,031  5,043  5,057 
Weekly  4,948  4,989  5,017  5,058  5,086 
Monthly  4,412  4,721  4,883  5,192  5,354 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks up 21.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 6 months up 7.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks up 21.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 5 months up 18.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks up 24.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 46.6%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
31Pipe bottom
20Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
19Head-and-shoulders bottom
17Broadening top
15Double Top, Adam and Adam
10Head-and-shoulders top
10Triangle, symmetrical
7Triple top
6Triple bottom
5Double Top, Eve and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Natural Gas (Diversified)
3. Natural Gas (Diversified)3. Petroleum (Producing)
4. Metal Fabricating4. Electric Utility (West)
5. Metals and Mining (Div.)5. Metal Fabricating
50. Telecom. Equipment50. Drug
51. Retail (Special Lines)51. Insurance (Life)
52. Drug52. Information Services
53. Information Services53. Retail (Special Lines)
54. Securities Brokerage54. Biotechnology
55. Biotechnology55. Securities Brokerage
56. Apparel56. Apparel
57. Short ETFs57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 7/15/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 634 stocks searched, or 2.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 24 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is mildly bullish. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 27 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AELPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Insurance (Life)
APHPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Electronics
AXEPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Electronics
ARWPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Electronics
ADSKPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Computer Software and Svcs
BAChannel      04/20/201607/14/2016Aerospace/Defense
CFPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Chemical (Basic)
CNOPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Insurance (Diversified)
CRPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Diversified Co.
^DJIBroadening top      05/02/201607/08/2016None
DOWBroadening top, right-angled and descending      04/18/201607/14/2016Chemical (Basic)
DDPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Chemical (Basic)
EMNPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Chemical (Diversified)
EFIIPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Computers and Peripherals
FLEXPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Electronics
FMCPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Chemical (Basic)
FWRDDiamond top      05/26/201607/13/2016Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HEBroadening top      04/29/201607/14/2016Electric Utility (West)
HPTriangle, ascending      06/03/201607/11/2016Petroleum (Producing)
HONBroadening top      04/28/201607/14/2016Aerospace/Defense
KMTPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Metal Fabricating
LNCPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Insurance (Life)
METPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Insurance (Life)
MOSPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Chemical (Diversified)
NTAPPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Computers and Peripherals
NWPXRising wedge      06/08/201607/14/2016Building Materials
PANWPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Computer Software and Svcs
PDLITriangle, descending      04/25/201607/14/2016Biotechnology
PRUPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Insurance (Life)
SIGIBroadening top      06/09/201607/14/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
TPXPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
TDCPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Computer Software and Svcs
UNMPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Insurance (Diversified)
VRSNDiamond bottom      06/03/201607/14/2016Internet
WLKPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Chemical (Basic)
YHOORectangle top      04/07/201607/14/2016Internet
IHEChannel      01/27/201607/13/2016Drug
EWABroadening top      04/28/201607/14/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWHBroadening top, right-angled and descending      03/24/201607/14/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)
XHBBroadening top      04/27/201607/14/2016Homebuilding

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/07/2016 and 07/14/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
American Equity Investment Life Holding (AEL)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 598 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $16.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.81 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -33.37%
Volume: 455,300 shares. 3 month avg: 775,888 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 04/06/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 10/05/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Amphenol Corp (APH)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 207 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $58.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.71 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.81%
Volume: 1,058,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,218,420 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Anixter International Inc (AXE)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 448 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $56.68
1 Month avg volatility: $1.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.35 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.14%
Volume: 137,100 shares. 3 month avg: 209,842 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Arrow Electronics (ARW)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 107 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $64.54
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.03 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.12%
Volume: 391,100 shares. 3 month avg: 589,542 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Autodesk Inc (ADSK)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 376 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $58.16
1 Month avg volatility: $1.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.10 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.55%
Volume: 1,840,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,850,409 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Boeing Company, The (BA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 508 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $131.55
1 Month avg volatility: $2.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $125.56 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.02%
Volume: 3,979,300 shares. 3 month avg: 4,367,097 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/20/2016 to 07/14/2016

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 584 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $27.87
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.06 or 10.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -31.71%
Volume: 7,388,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,878,818 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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CNO Financial Group, Inc (CNO)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 471 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $18.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.31 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.98%
Volume: 1,355,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,241,146 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Crane Co (CR)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 182 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $58.63
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.04 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.55%
Volume: 212,700 shares. 3 month avg: 271,806 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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DJ 30 Industrials (^DJI)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
7/14/16 close: $18,506.41
1 Month avg volatility: $185.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18,907.97 or 2.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.21%
Volume: 87,053,500 shares. 3 month avg: 97,692,935 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/02/2016 to 07/08/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Dow Chemical (DOW)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 307 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $51.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.60 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.62%
Volume: 4,907,500 shares. 3 month avg: 7,174,371 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 04/18/2016 to 07/14/2016
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Dupont (DD)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 323 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $66.86
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.70 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.39%
Volume: 1,912,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,268,212 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Eastman Chemical (EMN)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 375 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $71.70
1 Month avg volatility: $1.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.02 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.21%
Volume: 1,248,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,322,285 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Electronics For Imaging, Inc. (EFII)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 437 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $45.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.94 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.08%
Volume: 190,900 shares. 3 month avg: 421,975 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Flextronics International Ltd (FLEX)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 132 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $12.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.17 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.61%
Volume: 5,672,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,577,605 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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FMC Corp. (FMC)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 82 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $48.64
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.75 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.30%
Volume: 1,074,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,610,138 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Forward Air Corp (FWRD)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 426 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $45.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.06 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.79%
Volume: 231,200 shares. 3 month avg: 187,714 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 05/26/2016 to 07/13/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 346 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $32.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.07 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.23%
Volume: 616,800 shares. 3 month avg: 419,366 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/29/2016 to 07/14/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Helmerich and Payne Inc. (HP)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 48 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $68.37
1 Month avg volatility: $2.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.32 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.68%
Volume: 1,609,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,882,358 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/03/2016 to 07/11/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 249 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $119.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $123.04 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.99%
Volume: 2,415,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,701,366 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/28/2016 to 07/14/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Kennametal (KMT)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 98 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $22.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.43 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.58%
Volume: 922,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,177,811 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Lincoln National Corp (LNC)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 510 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $42.87
1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.12 or 8.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.70%
Volume: 3,835,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,667,448 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MetLife Inc (MET)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 535 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $42.38
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.57 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.09%
Volume: 17,183,000 shares. 3 month avg: 7,088,368 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Mosaic Co (MOS)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 334 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $28.18
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.24 or 10.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.14%
Volume: 6,957,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,666,949 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Network Appliance (NTAP)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 405 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $25.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.92 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.67%
Volume: 3,154,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,258,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Northwest Pipe Co (NWPX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 122 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $11.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.28 or 9.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.54%
Volume: 39,600 shares. 3 month avg: 82,177 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 06/08/2016 to 07/14/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Palto Alto Networks Inc (PANW)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 600 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $124.63
1 Month avg volatility: $3.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $117.01 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.24%
Volume: 1,359,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,849,463 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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PDL BioPharma Inc (PDLI)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 475 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $3.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.54 or 8.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.63%
Volume: 1,311,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,404,708 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 04/25/2016 to 07/14/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Prudential Financial Inc (PRU)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 492 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $75.02
1 Month avg volatility: $1.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.36 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.85%
Volume: 2,698,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,471,895 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 162 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $39.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.29 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.57%
Volume: 160,400 shares. 3 month avg: 193,025 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/09/2016 to 07/14/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Tempur-pedic Intl (TPX)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 557 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $58.41
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.52 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.10%
Volume: 1,066,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,553,240 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Teradata Corp (TDC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 278 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $27.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.90 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.37%
Volume: 1,489,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,259,726 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Unum Group (UNM)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 410 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $32.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.11 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.62%
Volume: 2,077,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,901,871 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Verisign (VRSN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 420 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $84.69
1 Month avg volatility: $1.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.48 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.06%
Volume: 1,189,100 shares. 3 month avg: 773,017 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 06/03/2016 to 07/14/2016
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Westlake Chemical Corp (WLK)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 502 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $45.39
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.50 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.44%
Volume: 751,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,171,294 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 171 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $37.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.62 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.13%
Volume: 10,708,300 shares. 3 month avg: 12,917,168 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 04/07/2016 to 07/14/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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DJ US Pharmaceuticals index fund (IHE)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 468 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $150.66
1 Month avg volatility: $2.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $144.97 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.82%
Volume: 21,500 shares. 3 month avg: 29,765 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/27/2016 to 07/13/2016

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MSCI Australia Index fund (EWA)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 263 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $20.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.98 or 2.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.86%
Volume: 2,027,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,325,837 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/28/2016 to 07/14/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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MSCI Hong Kong Index fund (EWH)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 427 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $20.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.78 or 2.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.97%
Volume: 4,739,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,621,720 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 03/24/2016 to 07/14/2016
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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SPDR Homebuiilders ETF (XHB)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 337 out of 626
7/14/16 close: $35.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.59 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.84%
Volume: 1,273,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,063,503 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/27/2016 to 07/14/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Thursday 7/14/16. Bite of the Asp!

Picture of a southern flannel moth

Several years ago, I saw these BB sized pellets on my sidewalk (the round black stuff, highlighted in red, top picture) and paused to figure out what they were. It didn't take long for me to guess that it was droppings (excrement) from an insect. So I started searching my yaupon holly to find what it was.

Actually finding the thing took a while because i didn't know how big it would be nor the color. But I found one. I think it was gray but I also spotted more that were brown and even yellow (like the color of a dead leaf).

The middle picture is an example of one on my yaupon holly this morning (Wednesday). My hand gives you an idea about their size (about 1.5 inches long and half inch wide).

The bottom picture is a zoom of caterpillar. It's called a southern flannel moth. At this stage, it's a caterpillar and not a flying insect.

I've been picking them off my holly with my fingers for years and killing them.

Here's the kicker: they're poisonous. I found that out the hard way on Tuesday.

Picture of a southern flannel moth

I pulled off a dozen of them from my bush and spread the branches of the holly apart to find them. I think the bottom of one brushed against my thumb and soon, it felt like I had been stung by a bee. Only the pain was worse. Much worse.

I looked at my thumb and didn't see any puncture marks. So I went inside and washed off the area and used a magnifying glass to find the injury. I didn't see anything.

But the pain grew worse. It was like a bee stung you twice in the same location, within a paper cut and someone was putting salt in the wound. That's what it felt like.

Then the pain crawled up my arm. It hurt most under my bicep and on my right chest, the pectoral muscle. An article I read mentioned the armpit as another site of discomfort.

Picture of a southern flannel moth

I had killed a black widow spider on my property years ago, but I didn't think that was what bit me. I've never seen a brown recluse spider, but they are known in this area, too, and that's what I thought bit me. I checked the shrub but didn't see any signs of a spider. Both of those spiders are poisonous. I think you see the dead flesh turn black quickly and spread as the venom spreads. I didn't see that in this case. I saw no discoloration at all.

I started sweating (but it could have been the heat. It's summer, after all) and felt like throwing up. Those are symptoms of the moth sting.

I put ice on it, took two aspirin, and tried not to think I was dying (I have a wonderful imagination).

The pain was almost, almost gone when I went to bed eleven hours later.

This morning (Wednesday), the pain is gone. I didn't have any rash or bumps or anything like that, which can also occur with a sting.

"The immature stages of flannel moths are caterpillars which are clothed with fine hairs and venomous spines. The spines, when brushed against the skin, produce a painful rash or sting." That's what the Asps and other stinging caterpillars article said.

This morning, I put on gloves to find a few more of the caterpillars for these pictures. The flannel moth is also called an asp in this part of the world.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Wednesday 7/13/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows a continuing rise in the index alongside an indicator which remains bullish.

I still think the index is going to turn down, but these uptrends seem to last longer than I expect.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 35% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 37%.
The fewest was 27% on 07/16/2015.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 531 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 15% on 07/14/2015.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

Both the red and blue lines show improvement this week.

Even so, about a third of the stocks in my database are in bear market territory. That's not good if you own any of them when the market is making new highs.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 7/12/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.4% or 80.19 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1050 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 550 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 500 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 118/197 or 59.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/60 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

This pattern caught my eye. I could call it an inverted and ascending scallop, but that was not my intention. I'm speaking of either of the red lines on the chart.

Rather, the rounded turn at B looked familiar, as if I had seen it recently.

Looking back over the last 10 days, we see pattern A.

If pattern B repeats like A, then look for the Dow to ease lower on Tuesday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,715.24    
 Monthly S1  17,471.08  755.85   
 Weekly S2  17,582.40  111.31   
 Monthly Pivot  17,818.93  236.53   
 Weekly S1  17,904.66  85.74   
 Weekly Pivot  18,035.72  131.05   
 Daily S2  18,101.75  66.03   
 Low  18,161.53  59.78   
 Open  18,161.53  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  18,164.34  2.81   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,208.28  43.94   
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,222.71  14.44   
 Daily Pivot  18,224.12  1.40   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  18,226.93  2.81   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,237.15  10.22   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  18,283.90  46.75   
 Daily R1  18,286.71  2.81   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  18,346.49  59.78   
 Weekly R1  18,357.98  11.49   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  18,489.04  131.05   
 Monthly R1  18,574.77  85.74   
 Monthly R2  18,922.62  347.84   

Monday 7/11/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

A broadening top chart pattern appears on the chart outlined in red.

Chart Patterns: After the Buy

The breakout from broadening tops is upward 60% of the time, according to my new book, Chart Patterns: After the Buy. I show a picture of it on the left.

Although it looks as if the index will pierce the top trendline, such a strong move upward could lead to a retrace.

However, I think the index will coast upward for a day or two more, based on a measured move up chart pattern.

The measured move begins at A and pauses during its corrective phase, B. If you use that move as a measure of how far the index will rise, it's clear there is more to go.

That's not a guarantee, however.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 108.75 points.
Wednesday: Up 78 points.
Thursday: Down 22.74 points.
Friday: Up 250.86 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 197.37 points or 1.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 94.19 points or 1.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 26.95 points or 1.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.1% down from the high of 18,167.63 on 04/20/2016.
     17.5% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     0.5% down from the high of 4,980.14 on 06/06/2016.
     17.7% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 2,131.71 on 07/08/2016.
     17.7% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Wholesale inventories10:00 TD-Wholesale sales and inventory statistics.
International trade8:30 WC+Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FEDs Beige book2:00 W?Reports on economic conditions.
Treasury budget2:00 WDTracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing).
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Producer price index8:30 ThB-Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation.
Retail sales8:30 FA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
Consumer price index8:30 FB+Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services.
Capacity utilization9:15 FB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.
Industrial production9:15 FB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Business inventories10:00 FC-Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 07/08/2016, the CPI had:

0 bearish patterns,
129 bullish patterns,
302 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 100.0%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,899  18,023  18,095  18,219  18,290 
Weekly  17,556  17,851  18,009  18,305  18,462 
Monthly  16,689  17,418  17,792  18,521  18,896 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,098  2,114  2,123  2,139  2,148 
Weekly  2,054  2,092  2,112  2,150  2,170 
Monthly  1,944  2,037  2,084  2,177  2,224 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,881  4,919  4,939  4,977  4,997 
Weekly  4,728  4,842  4,901  5,015  5,074 
Monthly  4,431  4,694  4,837  5,100  5,243 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 29.5%   The trend may continue. 
 6 months up 7.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 29.9%   The trend may continue. 
 5 months up 18.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 32.1%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 46.6%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 5 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
17Double Top, Adam and Adam
13Head-and-shoulders top
12Triangle, symmetrical
10Broadening top
10Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
7Triple top
5Double Top, Eve and Adam
5Flag
5Pipe bottom
5Broadening bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Natural Gas (Diversified)2. Natural Gas (Diversified)
3. Petroleum (Producing)3. Electric Utility (West)
4. Electric Utility (West)4. Electric Utility (Central)
5. Metal Fabricating5. Petroleum (Producing)
50. Drug50. Information Services
51. Insurance (Life)51. Electronics
52. Information Services52. Insurance (Life)
53. Retail (Special Lines)53. Retail (Special Lines)
54. Biotechnology54. Drug
55. Securities Brokerage55. Apparel
56. Apparel56. Biotechnology
57. Short ETFs57. Securities Brokerage

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 7/8/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 17 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 635 stocks searched, or 2.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 4 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 9 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABTHorn bottom      06/13/201606/27/2016Medical Supplies
ACETPipe bottom      06/20/201606/27/2016Chemical (Diversified)
ALBDiamond top      06/02/201607/07/2016Chemical (Diversified)
ALLFlag      07/01/201607/07/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ATWChannel      06/01/201607/07/2016Petroleum (Producing)
BIIBPipe bottom      06/20/201606/27/2016Biotechnology
CNAHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/16/201607/06/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
GEBroadening bottom      05/31/201607/07/2016Diversified Co.
GPROTriangle, symmetrical      06/16/201607/07/2016Electronics
LRCXDiamond top      06/06/201607/07/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LAMRFlag      07/01/201607/07/2016Advertising
MANHPipe bottom      06/20/201606/27/2016IT Services
MUPipe top      06/20/201606/27/2016Semiconductor
JWNHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/16/201607/05/2016Retail Store
NOCFlag      07/01/201607/07/2016Aerospace/Defense
PXDiamond top      06/08/201607/07/2016Chemical (Diversified)
SRDXRising wedge      05/13/201607/07/2016Medical Supplies
VRTXPipe bottom      06/20/201606/27/2016Biotechnology
WSMDiamond bottom      06/10/201607/07/2016Retail (Special Lines)
IYKBroadening top      04/01/201607/06/2016Household Products
XLVBroadening top      04/22/201607/07/2016Drug

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/30/2016 and 07/07/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 442 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $41.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.56 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.90%
Volume: 17,616,500 shares. 3 month avg: 10,714,454 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 06/13/2016 to 06/27/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 419 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $23.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.96 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.01%
Volume: 233,600 shares. 3 month avg: 181,805 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/20/2016 to 06/27/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Albemarle Corp. (ALB)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 14 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $81.32
1 Month avg volatility: $1.78. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $85.75 or 5.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 45.19%
Volume: 865,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,855,388 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 06/02/2016 to 07/07/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Allstate Corp (ALL)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 200 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $68.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $67.09 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.03%
Volume: 1,928,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,001,777 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 07/01/2016 to 07/07/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Atwood Oceanics Inc. (ATW)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 66 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $11.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.94 or 15.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.86%
Volume: 5,487,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,350,003 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 06/01/2016 to 07/07/2016

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Biogen Idec (BIIB)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 553 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $247.27
1 Month avg volatility: $5.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $233.65 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.29%
Volume: 1,140,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,873,529 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/20/2016 to 06/27/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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CNA Financial Corp (CNA)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 494 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $31.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.44 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.01%
Volume: 492,000 shares. 3 month avg: 147,663 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/16/2016 to 07/06/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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General Electric Co (GE)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 354 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $31.82
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.90 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.15%
Volume: 37,516,500 shares. 3 month avg: 33,395,428 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 05/31/2016 to 07/07/2016
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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GoPro (GPRO)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 622 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $10.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.53 or 11.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -40.20%
Volume: 5,765,800 shares. 3 month avg: 6,688,626 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/16/2016 to 07/07/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/13/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 07/13/2016.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Lam Research Corp (LRCX)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 256 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $82.04
1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $86.23 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.30%
Volume: 1,829,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,623,312 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 06/06/2016 to 07/07/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Lamar Advertising (LAMR)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 290 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $66.73
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.92 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.25%
Volume: 583,100 shares. 3 month avg: 519,571 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 07/01/2016 to 07/07/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Manhattan Associates (MANH)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 341 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $66.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.03 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.44%
Volume: 474,300 shares. 3 month avg: 758,149 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/20/2016 to 06/27/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Micron Technology (MU)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 538 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $12.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.58 or 11.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.84%
Volume: 33,446,900 shares. 3 month avg: 29,253,011 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/20/2016 to 06/27/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 570 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $39.15
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.21 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.40%
Volume: 4,459,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,570,120 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/16/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 191 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $220.50
1 Month avg volatility: $2.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $214.37 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.78%
Volume: 755,000 shares. 3 month avg: 893,912 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 07/01/2016 to 07/07/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Praxair Inc. (PX)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 257 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $111.84
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $116.53 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.22%
Volume: 716,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,192,694 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 06/08/2016 to 07/07/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Surmodics, Inc (SRDX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 117 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $23.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.06 or 9.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.91%
Volume: 33,300 shares. 3 month avg: 63,717 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 05/13/2016 to 07/07/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 597 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $90.05
1 Month avg volatility: $2.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $83.25 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.44%
Volume: 1,254,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,855,066 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/20/2016 to 06/27/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 495 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $51.61
1 Month avg volatility: $1.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.36 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.64%
Volume: 1,331,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,949,802 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 06/10/2016 to 07/07/2016
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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DJ US consumer goods (household goods) (IYK)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 302 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $115.68
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $118.11 or 2.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.69%
Volume: 10,200 shares. 3 month avg: 78,945 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/01/2016 to 07/06/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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SPDR Health Care Select Sector (XLV)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 377 out of 627
7/7/16 close: $72.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $75.01 or 3.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.06%
Volume: 8,013,100 shares. 3 month avg: 10,956,531 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/22/2016 to 07/07/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Thursday 7/7/16. Chart Patterns: After the Buy: It's Here!

Let me says "Thanks" to all of you that use my website when buying items from Amazon.com. Each purchase you make while there helps support this free website without increasing the cost of your order.

To support this website via Amazon.com purchases, click one of my book pictures (far left, if the ad blocker hasn't blocked it). The link passes a code to Amazon.com which they use in their referral program. Once at Amazon, you just shop in the normal manner.

Each time you visit Amazon.com, please do so through my website by clicking one of the books to take you there.

Thanks again.

$ $ $

Chart Patterns: After the Buy

My latest book has arrived and is on sale now, at Amazon.com, titled, Chart Patterns: After the Buy, and is pictured on the right.

View an excerpt on double bottoms (pdf: 1.58 mb) by clicking the link.

I grabbed the below text from Amazon.com.

Chart Patterns: After the Buy goes beyond simple chart pattern identification to show what comes next. Author and stock trader Thomas Bulkowski is one of the industry's most respected authorities in technical analysis; for this book, he examined over 43,000 chart patterns to discover what happens after you buy the stock. His findings are detailed here, to help you select better buy signals, avoid disaster, and make more money.

Bulkowski analyzed thousands of trades to identify common paths a stock takes after the breakout from a chart pattern. By combining those paths, he discovered the typical routes a stock takes, which he calls configurations. Match your chart to one of those configurations and you will know, before you buy, how your trade will likely perform. Now you can avoid potentially disastrous trades to focus on the big winners.

Each chapter illustrates the behavior of a specific pattern. Identification guidelines help even beginners recognize common patterns, and expert analysis sheds light on the period of the stock's behavior that actually affects your investment. You'll discover ideal buy and sell setups, how to set price targets, and more, with almost 370 charts and illustrations to guide you each step of the way. Coverage includes the most common and popular patterns, but also the lesser-known ones like bad earnings surprises, price mirrors, price mountains, and straight-line runs. Whether you're new to chart patterns or an experienced professional, this book provides the insight you need to select better trades.

  • Identify chart patterns
  • Select better buy signals
  • Predict future behavior
  • Learn the best stop locations

Knowing the pattern is one thing, but knowing how often a stop will trigger and how often you can expect a stock to reach its target price is another matter entirely-and it impacts your trade performance immensely. Chart Patterns: After the Buy is the essential reference guide to using chart patterns effectively throughout the entire life of the trade.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Wednesday 7/6/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator turned bearish, suggesting weakness in the coming days in the markets. We saw that today, of course.

The bearish signal could disappear for up to a week, so keep that in mind. That could happen if the index were to make a strong move upward.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Friday, 36% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 42%.
The fewest was 27% on 07/13/2015.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 532 stocks in my database are down an average of 18% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 21%.
The peak was 15% on 07/14/2015.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

Over the past week, if you look at the indices, you'll see that they made a sharp move down because of Brexit followed by a strong recovery. In fact, many of the indices have retraced that entire loss.

The indicators show the recovery as well. Notice the plunge in the blue and red lines on the far right of the chart.

The above numbers also highlight the recovery.

These two indicators don't show any hint of weakness going forward, but with the index at overhead resistance, I would be cautious here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 7/5/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.1% or 19.38 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1288 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 661 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 627 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 118/196 or 60.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/60 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

This chart is from Friday's trading due to the market holiday.

The index has moved sideways for almost all of Friday after bumping up against a ceiling of resistance. I show that line in red.

Below is a green line that highlights a support area. I expect the index to drop to the green line, and perhaps lower. But it could push through overhead resistance and zip higher.

Take your pick.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,711.74    
 Weekly S2  16,732.31  20.57   
 Monthly S1  17,330.56  598.25   
 Weekly S1  17,340.84  10.28   
 Weekly Pivot  17,671.61  330.77   
 Monthly Pivot  17,681.89  10.28   
 Daily S2  17,870.75  188.86   
 Daily S1  17,910.06  39.31   
 Low  17,916.91  6.85   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  17,924.24  7.33   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Close  17,949.37  25.13   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,949.56  0.19   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  17,956.22  6.66   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,959.64  3.42   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,969.73  10.09   
 Daily R1  17,995.53  25.80   
 High  18,002.38  6.85   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  18,041.69  39.31   
 Weekly R1  18,280.14  238.45   
 Monthly R1  18,300.71  20.57   
 Weekly R2  18,610.91  310.20   
 Monthly R2  18,652.04  41.13   

Friday 7/1/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 638 stocks searched, or 2.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 2 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
MMMBroadening top      05/26/201606/30/2016Diversified Co.
AJRDTriangle, symmetrical      05/11/201606/29/2016Diversified Co.
AKAMBroadening top      05/31/201606/27/2016E-Commerce
ALLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/16/201606/27/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SCORDead-cat bounce      06/28/201606/28/2016Information Services
CMIHorn top      06/06/201606/20/2016Machinery
REDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/16/201606/27/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EXCTriangle, symmetrical      05/06/201606/28/2016Electric Utility (East)
XOMBroadening top      06/08/201606/27/2016Petroleum (Integrated)
LMTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/01/201606/24/2016Aerospace/Defense
PGRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/16/201606/27/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
RLIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/17/201606/27/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SMGDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/14/201606/27/2016Chemical (Basic)
TLRDDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/14/201606/27/2016Retail (Special Lines)
WRBDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/16/201606/27/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SMNHorn bottom      06/06/201606/20/2016Short ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/23/2016 and 06/30/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
3M Company (MMM)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 154 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $175.12
1 Month avg volatility: $1.84. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $178.82 or 2.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.25%
Volume: 2,449,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,941,246 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/26/2016 to 06/30/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 151 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $18.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.00 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.73%
Volume: 561,000 shares. 3 month avg: 249,597 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/11/2016 to 06/29/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 294 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $55.93
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.71 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.27%
Volume: 1,957,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,840,343 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/31/2016 to 06/27/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Allstate Corp (ALL)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 198 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $69.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.82 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.66%
Volume: 2,638,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,970,258 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/16/2016 to 06/27/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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comScore Inc (SCOR)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 623 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $23.88
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.55 or 11.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -41.97%
Volume: 1,249,000 shares. 3 month avg: 511,757 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 06/28/2016 to 06/28/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Cummins Inc. (CMI)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 64 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $112.44
1 Month avg volatility: $2.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $117.24 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 27.76%
Volume: 1,338,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,986,066 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 06/06/2016 to 06/20/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 7%.
Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Everest Re Group Ltd (RE)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 396 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $182.67
1 Month avg volatility: $2.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $168.49 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.23%
Volume: 731,900 shares. 3 month avg: 355,375 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/16/2016 to 06/27/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Exelon Corp. (EXC)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 45 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $36.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.72 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.93%
Volume: 8,834,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,387,895 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/06/2016 to 06/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 88 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $93.74
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $96.20 or 2.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 22.37%
Volume: 14,073,700 shares. 3 month avg: 11,013,982 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/08/2016 to 06/27/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 178 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $248.17
1 Month avg volatility: $2.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $239.39 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.29%
Volume: 2,045,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,154,237 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/01/2016 to 06/24/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Progressive Corp (PGR)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 326 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $33.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.69 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.35%
Volume: 3,543,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,271,474 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/16/2016 to 06/27/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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RLI Corp (RLI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 220 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $68.78
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.48 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.38%
Volume: 234,900 shares. 3 month avg: 193,751 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/17/2016 to 06/27/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 266 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $69.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.80 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.37%
Volume: 553,500 shares. 3 month avg: 370,829 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 06/14/2016 to 06/27/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 511 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $12.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.57 or 16.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.76%
Volume: 1,099,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,392,437 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 06/14/2016 to 06/27/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/09/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/08/2016 and a 38% chance by 12/08/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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W. R. Berkley Corp (WRB)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 262 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $59.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.11 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.44%
Volume: 1,064,300 shares. 3 month avg: 476,888 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/16/2016 to 06/27/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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UltraShort 2x Basic Materials ProShares (SMN)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 555 out of 630
6/30/16 close: $26.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.67 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.53%
Volume: 9,600 shares. 3 month avg: 15,608 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 06/06/2016 to 06/20/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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