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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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800 or 750 by 12/01/2017
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July 2015 Headlines


Archives


Friday 7/31/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 27 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 584 stocks searched, or 4.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (11) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

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Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AYIChannel      01/09/201507/30/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
AAChannel      05/14/201507/30/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
ABCPipe top      07/13/201507/20/2015Biotechnology
AWICup with handle      05/19/201507/30/2015Building Materials
ATWChannel      05/22/201507/30/2015Petroleum (Producing)
BIIBDead-cat bounce      07/24/201507/24/2015Biotechnology
CALBroadening top      06/08/201507/27/2015Shoe
CFPipe top      07/13/201507/20/2015Chemical (Basic)
CNLRectangle top      02/05/201507/30/2015Electric Utility (Central)
CNWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/09/201507/27/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing
EXPDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/08/201507/27/2015Air Transport
FFGTriangle, descending      06/05/201507/30/2015Insurance (Life)
FISTriple bottom      06/05/201507/27/2015Computer Software and Svcs
GPNBroadening top      06/03/201507/27/2015Computer Software and Svcs
HDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/20/201507/27/2015Retail Building Supply
INCYPipe top      07/13/201507/20/2015Drug
JBLUTriple bottom      07/28/201507/28/2015Air Transport
MRKTriple bottom      07/28/201507/28/2015Drug
NFGChannel      05/18/201507/30/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
NOVTriple bottom      07/28/201507/28/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NEUTriple bottom      07/28/201507/28/2015Chemical (Specialty)
OGEBroadening top, right-angled and descending      06/15/201507/30/2015Electric Utility (Central)
OKEBroadening top, right-angled and descending      06/05/201507/30/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
SEChannel      04/23/201507/30/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TEPennant      07/17/201507/27/2015Electric Utility (East)
RIGChannel      06/11/201507/28/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PBEPipe top      07/13/201507/20/2015Biotechnology

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/23/2015 and 07/30/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Acuity Brands, Inc (AYI)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 38 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $197.90
1 Month avg volatility: $3.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $188.84 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 41.29%
Volume: 426,400 shares. 3 month avg: 428,268 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/09/2015 to 07/30/2015

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Alcoa (AA)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 562 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $9.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.28 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -36.80%
Volume: 19,833,200 shares. 3 month avg: 20,069,902 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/14/2015 to 07/30/2015

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AmerisourceBergen Corp (ABC)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 195 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $104.47
1 Month avg volatility: $1.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $111.02 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.87%
Volume: 3,974,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,994,582 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/13/2015 to 07/20/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Armstrong World Industries (AWI)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 150 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $58.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.23 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.46%
Volume: 1,833,300 shares. 3 month avg: 598,294 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Cup with handle continuation pattern from 05/19/2015 to 07/30/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 34%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Atwood Oceanics Inc. (ATW)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $21.64
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.63 or 13.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.72%
Volume: 4,711,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,496,011 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/22/2015 to 07/30/2015

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Biogen Idec (BIIB)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 422 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $317.00
1 Month avg volatility: $10.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $289.61 or 8.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.61%
Volume: 2,303,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,019,237 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 07/24/2015 to 07/24/2015

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Caleres (CAL)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 177 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $32.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.74 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.62%
Volume: 202,000 shares. 3 month avg: 267,009 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/08/2015 to 07/27/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 328 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $59.12
1 Month avg volatility: $1.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.56 or 7.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.46%
Volume: 1,081,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,516,446 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/13/2015 to 07/20/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Cleco Corp (CNL)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 303 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $54.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.49 or 1.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.31%
Volume: 189,200 shares. 3 month avg: 290,806 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/05/2015 to 07/30/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Con-way Inc. (CNW)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 392 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $39.37
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.15 or 10.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.95%
Volume: 1,637,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,057,155 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/09/2015 to 07/27/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 231 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $46.68
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.87 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.64%
Volume: 1,108,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,290,531 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/08/2015 to 07/27/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 197 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $57.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.24 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.77%
Volume: 47,900 shares. 3 month avg: 44,569 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/05/2015 to 07/30/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Fidelity National Information Svcs (FIS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 227 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $65.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.70 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.87%
Volume: 7,446,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,349,425 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 06/05/2015 to 07/27/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Global Payments Inc (GPN)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 44 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $111.84
1 Month avg volatility: $2.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $116.43 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 38.54%
Volume: 834,500 shares. 3 month avg: 535,937 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/03/2015 to 07/27/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Home Depot, Inc (HD)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 161 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $116.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $112.39 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.95%
Volume: 3,291,100 shares. 3 month avg: 4,931,695 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/20/2015 to 07/27/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Incyte Corp. (INCY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 48 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $102.96
1 Month avg volatility: $3.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $111.49 or 8.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 40.83%
Volume: 1,121,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,013,371 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/13/2015 to 07/20/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 18 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $22.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.94 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 44.14%
Volume: 6,893,000 shares. 3 month avg: 9,885,962 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 07/28/2015 to 07/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Merck and Co., Inc. (MRK)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 359 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $58.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.70 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.05%
Volume: 6,989,400 shares. 3 month avg: 10,133,569 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 07/28/2015 to 07/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

National Fuel Gas (NFG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 503 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $54.75
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.19 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.26%
Volume: 604,400 shares. 3 month avg: 472,229 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/18/2015 to 07/30/2015

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National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 511 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $43.39
1 Month avg volatility: $1.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.50 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -33.79%
Volume: 3,636,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,182,058 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 07/28/2015 to 07/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

NewMarket Corp. (NEU)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 369 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $402.01
1 Month avg volatility: $7.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $385.09 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.38%
Volume: 111,500 shares. 3 month avg: 41,631 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 07/28/2015 to 07/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

OGE Energy Corp (OGE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 505 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $29.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.93 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.00%
Volume: 1,390,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,070,191 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 06/15/2015 to 07/30/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Top

Oneok Inc (OKE)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 424 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $37.91
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.12 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.86%
Volume: 2,686,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,295,311 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 06/05/2015 to 07/30/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Top

Spectra Energy Corp (SE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 405 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $30.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.81 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.36%
Volume: 4,219,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,060,808 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/23/2015 to 07/30/2015

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Teco Energy Inc (TE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 300 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $21.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.26 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.10%
Volume: 1,742,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,452,357 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 07/17/2015 to 07/27/2015
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 485 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $13.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.34 or 11.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.90%
Volume: 14,141,500 shares. 3 month avg: 12,052,278 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 06/11/2015 to 07/28/2015

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PowerShares Dynamic Biotech and Genome (PBE)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 159 out of 576
7/30/15 close: $58.86
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.63 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.25%
Volume: 53,000 shares. 3 month avg: 52,492 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/13/2015 to 07/20/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thursday 7/30/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.4% or 22.52 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 550 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 349 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 201 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 90/150 or 60.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/64 or 48.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index is following a short channel upward. Since this is the beginning of an uptrend and since the angle is shallow (depending on the aspect ratio of how you view it), from 30 to 45 degrees, I believe the uptrend is just starting.

Of course, it's earnings season so anything can happen. Plus, the index has closed higher two days in a row. Is it time for a break? Nah. Give it another day.

$ $ $

Picture of my cacti.

Good news! My cacti are having babies.

The picture shows (circled in red) just one of several that have buds forming on their sides.

 

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,751.30    
 Monthly S1  4,931.51  180.22   
 Weekly S2  4,995.30  63.78   
 Weekly S1  5,053.51  58.22   
 Daily S2  5,065.40  11.89   
 Low  5,080.04  14.64   
 Monthly Pivot  5,081.73  1.69   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  5,088.57  6.84   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,094.48  5.91   
 Open  5,097.86  3.38   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,098.94  1.08   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  5,103.20  4.26   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,103.40  0.20   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  5,111.73  8.33   
 High  5,117.84  6.11   
 Daily R1  5,126.37  8.53   
 Daily R2  5,141.00  14.64   
 Weekly Pivot  5,142.73  1.72   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R1  5,200.94  58.22   
 Monthly R1  5,261.94  61.00   
 Weekly R2  5,290.16  28.21   
 Monthly R2  5,412.16  122.00   

Wednesday 7/29/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

Notice that the red signals predominate in the last week or so. Those are bearish signals. It says that the downtrend is still intact.

If the index were to rise tomorrow (Wednesday), the bearish signal could turn bullish.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 7/28/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.7% or -127.94 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 556 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 273 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 283 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/161 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 26/48 or 54.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

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I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

In red, I show a descending triangle. I used to think that these broke out downward in a bull market, but new research says that the actually breakout upward slightly more often than downward. Bear markets are the reverse (expect more downward breakouts).

I think the index has reached a support and after so many days of trending lower, I think we are due for a bounce upward. So that's what I expect on Tuesday.

$ $ $

I've been working on my front yard, building a path through gardens that I'll populate with plants when it gets cooler. In the mean time, I've been feeding the mosquitoes, despite spraying my clothes with deet.

Actually, it's the times when I'm not wearing deet that I get bit. Anyway, the bites have formed nice red islands of itchy rash, so I'm off to the grocery store for some calamine lotion. And chips. I need a dip for the chips. Maybe the lotion will work for both.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,975.23    
 Weekly S2  17,127.09  151.86   
 Monthly S1  17,207.91  80.82   
 Weekly S1  17,283.84  75.93   
 Daily S2  17,304.57  20.73   
 Daily S1  17,372.58  68.01   
 Low  17,399.17  26.59   
 Close  17,440.59  41.42   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,461.29  20.70   
 Daily Pivot  17,467.18  5.89   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,480.47  13.29   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,499.66  19.19   
 Daily R1  17,535.19  35.53   
 Open  17,561.78  26.59   
 High  17,561.78  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  17,629.79  68.01   
 Monthly Pivot  17,698.36  68.57   
 Weekly Pivot  17,710.48  12.12   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  17,867.23  156.75   
 Monthly R1  17,931.04  63.81   
 Weekly R2  18,293.87  362.83   
 Monthly R2  18,421.49  127.62   

Monday 7/27/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

The blue line is a support line that didn't hold support when the index pushed below it. The line did hold for a time, but Greece and other factors were able to rally the bears.

The red line is another support area. The index pierced it earlier in July but will it now hold?

The tall candle suggests the index will regroup (pause) in the downward run. That is bullish.

If companies report good earnings, that will give the market support, too.

Look at the symmetry of AB and the mirror CD. If this mirror is valid, look for a bottom to appear at D. The index may drop to the level of C, but it should turn in the next few days.

I can make a bearish case, too.

Lousy earnings can take the index down more easily than bullish reports can send it up (price falls faster than it rises. I proved this).

If it breaks through support, the index could return to just above the launch price. On this chart, the launch price is about 17,050 (February). So one can expect the index to find support at, say, 17,300.

You can choose the bullish option or the bearish one.

Based on the market's nervousness, I expect a drop to the 17,200 to 17,400 range before the index finds support and rises.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 13.96 points.
Tuesday: Down 181.12 points.
Wednesday: Down 68.25 points.
Thursday: Down 119.12 points.
Friday: Down 163.39 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 517.92 points or 2.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 121.51 points or 2.3%.
The S&P 500 index was down 46.99 points or 2.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.3% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     3.1% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     2.7% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     11.5% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     2.6% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     5.0% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Durable goods orders8:30 MBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Rate decision2:00 W?The Federal Reserves reports on interest rate changes.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Gross domestic product8:30 ThBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 FBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Michigan sentiment10:00 FB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 07/24/2015, the CPI had:

58 bearish patterns,
3 bullish patterns,
120 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 4.9%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,423  17,496  17,626  17,699  17,829 
Weekly  17,170  17,369  17,753  17,953  18,337 
Monthly  17,018  17,293  17,741  18,016  18,464 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,059  2,069  2,088  2,098  2,117 
Weekly  2,041  2,060  2,097  2,116  2,152 
Monthly  1,997  2,038  2,085  2,127  2,174 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,031  5,060  5,114  5,143  5,197 
Weekly  4,988  5,038  5,135  5,186  5,282 
Monthly  4,744  4,916  5,074  5,247  5,404 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.9%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 11.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.2%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 53.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 30.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 48.2%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
16Channel
10Broadening bottom
9Triangle, symmetrical
8Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
8Pipe bottom
7Broadening top
6Head-and-shoulders bottom
6Pipe top
5Double Top, Adam and Adam
4Double Bottom, Eve and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Internet2. Internet
3. Shoe3. Human Resources
4. Insurance (Life)4. Furn/Home Furnishings
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. Securities Brokerage
50. Semiconductor Cap Equip.50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
51. Electric Utility (West)51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment52. Short ETFs
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Electric Utility (West)
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Electric Utility (Central)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Saturday 7/25/15. Book Correction.

I found a mistake in my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second EditionEncyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book., pictured on the right.

Here's the correction.

  • Page 761, Table 49.8, measure rule. Change "highest high" to "breakout price" as in "...add the difference to the breakout price or for downward breakouts..."

For a complete list of book corrections, click on this link and look for the heading, "Book Corrections".

$ $ $

I also discovered that the search feature of the site was broken. I have no idea how long it's been like this. But it appears to be working now.

If anything else looks amiss, like broken links and things, please let me know.


Friday 7/24/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 19 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 585 stocks searched, or 3.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABTChannel      03/16/201507/22/2015Medical Supplies
AYIChannel      01/09/201507/23/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
CNLRectangle top      02/05/201507/23/2015Electric Utility (Central)
EMNHead-and-shoulders top      05/05/201507/17/2015Chemical (Diversified)
HONBroadening top      05/28/201507/20/2015Aerospace/Defense
IDATriangle, symmetrical      07/08/201507/23/2015Electric Utility (West)
LEGChannel      05/04/201507/23/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
LXKDead-cat bounce      07/21/201507/21/2015Computers and Peripherals
MDTBroadening wedge, descending      05/28/201507/23/2015Medical Supplies
^IXICBroadening top      05/26/201507/20/2015None
RYLScallop, ascending and inverted      06/09/201507/21/2015Homebuilding
SLGNBroadening bottom      07/01/201507/21/2015Packaging and Container
TZOOPipe top      07/06/201507/13/2015Internet
USGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/17/201507/20/2015Building Materials
WWWBroadening bottom      06/17/201507/22/2015Shoe
IAIBroadening top      06/11/201507/17/2015Securities Brokerage
SHBroadening bottom      05/21/201507/20/2015Short ETFs
SDSBroadening bottom      05/12/201507/20/2015Short ETFs
SKFBroadening bottom      05/19/201507/22/2015Short ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/16/2015 and 07/23/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 115 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $51.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.46 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.73%
Volume: 5,949,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,079,608 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/16/2015 to 07/22/2015

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Acuity Brands, Inc (AYI)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 50 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $191.54
1 Month avg volatility: $3.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $184.22 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 36.75%
Volume: 376,800 shares. 3 month avg: 418,045 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/09/2015 to 07/23/2015

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Cleco Corp (CNL)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 307 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $53.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.11 or 1.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.16%
Volume: 397,600 shares. 3 month avg: 288,234 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/05/2015 to 07/23/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Eastman Chemical (EMN)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 232 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $74.52
1 Month avg volatility: $1.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $78.84 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.77%
Volume: 2,619,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,578,089 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 05/05/2015 to 07/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 225 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $104.32
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $108.08 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.40%
Volume: 2,366,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,673,860 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/28/2015 to 07/20/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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IDACORP Inc (IDA)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 462 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $58.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.54 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.18%
Volume: 407,200 shares. 3 month avg: 217,797 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/08/2015 to 07/23/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Leggett and Platt (LEG)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 130 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $50.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.04 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.24%
Volume: 543,900 shares. 3 month avg: 928,672 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/04/2015 to 07/23/2015

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Lexmark International Inc. (LXK)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 394 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $35.39
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.98 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.25%
Volume: 1,682,400 shares. 3 month avg: 762,695 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 07/21/2015 to 07/21/2015

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Medtronic Inc (MDT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 224 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $76.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.60 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.37%
Volume: 3,647,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,392,060 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 05/28/2015 to 07/23/2015
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
7/23/15 close: $5,146.41
1 Month avg volatility: $49.08. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5,295.15 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.66%
Volume: 0 shares. Could not calculate the 3 month avg volume.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/26/2015 to 07/20/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Ryland Group, Inc (RYL)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 47 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $46.28
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.45 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.02%
Volume: 374,000 shares. 3 month avg: 760,655 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 06/09/2015 to 07/21/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Silgan Holdings Inc (SLGN)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 283 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $52.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.47 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.31%
Volume: 173,900 shares. 3 month avg: 195,925 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 07/01/2015 to 07/21/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 512 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $9.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.67 or 17.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -28.05%
Volume: 133,900 shares. 3 month avg: 156,246 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/06/2015 to 07/13/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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USG Corp (USG)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 279 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $28.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.69 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.11%
Volume: 5,662,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,811,906 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/17/2015 to 07/20/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Wolverine World Wide (WWW)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 215 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $28.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.49 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.14%
Volume: 861,500 shares. 3 month avg: 797,080 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/17/2015 to 07/22/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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DJ US Broker-dealers index fund (IAI)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 123 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $44.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.31 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.55%
Volume: 46,200 shares. 3 month avg: 69,351 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/11/2015 to 07/17/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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S and P short 1x ProShares (SH)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 360 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $20.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.40 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.13%
Volume: 2,138,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,317,728 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 05/21/2015 to 07/20/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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S and P short 2x ProShares (SDS)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 417 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $20.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.23 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.57%
Volume: 7,870,000 shares. 3 month avg: 8,927,315 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 05/12/2015 to 07/20/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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UltraShort 2x Financials ProShares (SKF)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 494 out of 577
7/23/15 close: $44.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.52 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.56%
Volume: 40,400 shares. 3 month avg: 30,088 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 05/19/2015 to 07/22/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Thursday 7/23/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.7% or -36.35 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 252 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 116 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 136 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 54.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 90/150 or 60.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 30/63 or 47.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

When I looked at this picture of the Nasdaq, I thought of a Fibonacci retrace.

So I calculated the 38% (C) and 62% (D) retracements of the AB move. I show those as red lines on the chart. The index, over the coming day, may retrace to those lines and then recover.

Triggers to this might be Greece acting up again but more likely would be weak earnings. It is earnings season again, after all.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,785.83    
 Weekly S2  4,966.06  180.23   
 Monthly S1  4,978.80  12.74   
 Weekly S1  5,068.91  90.11   
 Monthly Pivot  5,094.48  25.57   
 Daily S2  5,128.47  33.99   
 Weekly Pivot  5,139.54  11.07   
 Low  5,145.78  6.24   
 Open  5,146.03  0.25   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  5,150.12  4.09   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,160.66  10.54   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,165.26  4.60   
 Daily Pivot  5,167.43  2.17   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,169.86  2.43   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  5,171.77  1.91   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  5,184.74  12.97   
 Daily R1  5,189.08  4.34   
 Daily R2  5,206.39  17.31   
 Weekly R1  5,242.39  36.00   
 Monthly R1  5,287.45  45.06   
 Weekly R2  5,313.02  25.57   
 Monthly R2  5,403.13  90.11   

Wednesday 7/22/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: Bearish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator is heading toward zero. If it should get there, the world will not end. Your brokerage account may be missing a few bucks, though.

A dropping CPI suggests the index is going down, too. Look at the next chart.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The three red bars could disappear in favor of a neutral signal. Notice that the index has curled over during the last three days.

Does that mean the index will drop? No, but it does make you wonder and grip your wallet or purse tighter.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 7/21/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.1% or 13.96 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1270 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 652 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 618 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/160 or 60.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 26/48 or 54.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I drew two red lines bounding the price action for the last several days. The index has been moving in a trading range.

Clearly, the Dow will break out of this trading range, but when is unclear and also unclear is the breakout direction. Since the index is near the top end of the range, we could see an upward breakout on Tuesday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,195.17    
 Monthly S1  17,647.79  452.62   
 Weekly S2  17,662.09  14.30   
 Weekly S1  17,881.25  219.16   
 Monthly Pivot  17,918.30  37.05   
 Weekly Pivot  18,006.43  88.13   
 Daily S2  18,028.06  21.63   
 Daily S1  18,064.23  36.18   
 Low  18,064.50  0.27   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  18,085.91  21.41   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,092.24  6.33   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Close  18,100.41  8.17   
 Daily Pivot  18,100.68  0.27   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,100.81  0.13   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,109.38  8.57   
 Daily R1  18,136.85  27.47   
 High  18,137.12  0.27   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  18,173.30  36.18   
 Weekly R1  18,225.59  52.29   
 Weekly R2  18,350.77  125.18   
 Monthly R1  18,370.92  20.15   
 Monthly R2  18,641.43  270.51   

Monday 7/20/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This pattern intrigued me. Why?

I drew two nearly horizontal red lines that bound price action. The pattern shown is a double top. The twin peaks are clear.

It becomes a valid double top only when the index closes below the lowest valley between the two peaks.

What intrigues me now is the pullback.

A pullback takes price back to the breakout price and you can see that as the curling action after the breakout.

Will the index resume dropping? We'll have to wait to find out.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 217.27 points.
Tuesday: Up 75.9 points.
Wednesday: Down 3.41 points.
Thursday: Up 70.08 points.
Friday: Down 33.8 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 326.04 points or 1.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 212.44 points or 4.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 50.02 points or 2.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.4% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     6.2% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     0.0% down from the high of 5,210.16 on 07/17/2015.
     14.2% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     0.4% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     7.4% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Existing home sales10:00 WCCounts sales of used homes.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Leading indicators10:00 ThD-Summary of already known reports.
New home sales10:00 FC+Shows sales of single-family homes.

Options Expiration

VIX expires on Wednesday.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,991  18,039  18,080  18,128  18,169 
Weekly  17,657  17,872  18,002  18,216  18,346 
Monthly  17,191  17,638  17,914  18,362  18,637 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,116  2,121  2,125  2,130  2,134 
Weekly  2,063  2,095  2,112  2,144  2,161 
Monthly  2,014  2,070  2,100  2,156  2,186 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,174  5,192  5,201  5,219  5,228 
Weekly  4,979  5,094  5,152  5,268  5,326 
Monthly  4,799  5,004  5,107  5,313  5,416 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 30.2%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 52.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 53.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 44.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 48.2%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
22Channel
14Triangle, symmetrical
10Broadening bottom
10Pipe top
7Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
7Broadening top
6Head-and-shoulders bottom
5Triple top
5Head-and-shoulders top
5Pipe bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Internet2. Furn/Home Furnishings
3. Human Resources3. Human Resources
4. Furn/Home Furnishings4. Shoe
5. Securities Brokerage5. Retail (Special Lines)
50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment50. Metal Fabricating
51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
52. Short ETFs52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
53. Electric Utility (West)53. Electric Utility (West)
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Electric Utility (Central)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 7/17/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 586 stocks searched, or 2.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 5 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 0 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABTChannel      03/16/201507/16/2015Medical Supplies
CRLPipe bottom      06/29/201507/06/2015Biotechnology
DVNChannel      05/21/201507/16/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
EIXHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/15/201507/10/2015Electric Utility (West)
GLFChannel      05/13/201507/16/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
HSCRectangle bottom      02/18/201507/16/2015Diversified Co.
HURCChannel      05/11/201507/16/2015Machinery
KBALTriangle, symmetrical      06/22/201507/16/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
MOSTriangle, symmetrical      04/30/201507/16/2015Chemical (Diversified)
RTIChannel      05/04/201507/16/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
SAIADouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/25/201507/10/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing
STJBroadening top      05/18/201507/14/2015Medical Supplies
TECHPipe bottom      06/29/201507/06/2015Biotechnology
TZOOBroadening bottom      06/17/201507/16/2015Internet
VRTXBroadening top      05/29/201507/15/2015Biotechnology
WGLTriangle, symmetrical      06/23/201507/15/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
IYCRectangle top      02/20/201507/10/2015Retail Store
DDMPipe bottom      06/29/201507/06/2015Long ETFs
PPHBroadening top      05/21/201507/13/2015Drug
QLDPipe bottom      06/29/201507/06/2015Long ETFs
SSOPipe bottom      06/29/201507/06/2015Long ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/09/2015 and 07/16/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 169 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $49.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.11 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.55%
Volume: 3,754,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,850,826 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/16/2015 to 07/16/2015

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Charles River Labs Intl (CRL)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 206 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $75.12
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.32 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.04%
Volume: 266,300 shares. 3 month avg: 442,243 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/29/2015 to 07/06/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Devon Energy Corp. (DVN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 423 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $54.37
1 Month avg volatility: $1.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.58 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.17%
Volume: 2,905,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,080,383 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/21/2015 to 07/16/2015

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Edison International (EIX)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 484 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $59.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.13 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.68%
Volume: 2,322,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,342,014 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2015 to 07/10/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Gulfmark Offshore Inc (GLF)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 574 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $9.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.71 or 12.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -59.34%
Volume: 672,600 shares. 3 month avg: 611,845 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/13/2015 to 07/16/2015

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Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 353 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $15.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.46 or 10.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.46%
Volume: 624,500 shares. 3 month avg: 824,443 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 02/18/2015 to 07/16/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Hurco Companies Inc. (HURC)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 406 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $34.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.01 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.02%
Volume: 37,800 shares. 3 month avg: 23,662 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/11/2015 to 07/16/2015

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Kimball International, Inc. (KBAL)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 48 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $12.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.48 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.44%
Volume: 113,600 shares. 3 month avg: 159,017 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/22/2015 to 07/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Mosaic Co (MOS)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 337 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $45.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.90 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.83%
Volume: 2,216,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,108,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/30/2015 to 07/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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RTI International Metals Inc. (RTI)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 38 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $29.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.18 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.81%
Volume: 888,000 shares. 3 month avg: 494,206 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/04/2015 to 07/16/2015

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SAIA Inc (SAIA)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 535 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $39.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.67 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.76%
Volume: 91,300 shares. 3 month avg: 272,048 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 06/25/2015 to 07/10/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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St. Jude Medical Inc (STJ)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 147 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $77.17
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.45 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.67%
Volume: 1,266,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,497,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/18/2015 to 07/14/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Techne Corporation (TECH)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 170 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $104.57
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $99.65 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.17%
Volume: 217,800 shares. 3 month avg: 178,702 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/29/2015 to 07/06/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 451 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $10.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.78 or 13.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.81%
Volume: 705,800 shares. 3 month avg: 204,469 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/17/2015 to 07/16/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 181 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $133.90
1 Month avg volatility: $3.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $141.30 or 5.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.71%
Volume: 2,004,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,583,963 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/29/2015 to 07/15/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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WGL Holdings (WGL)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 355 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $55.87
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.16 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.29%
Volume: 241,600 shares. 3 month avg: 232,637 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/23/2015 to 07/15/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ US consumer svcs index fnd (retail) (IYC)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 174 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $149.85
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $146.65 or 2.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.77%
Volume: 56,300 shares. 3 month avg: 49,889 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/20/2015 to 07/10/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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DJIA, long 2x Ultra Dow 30 ProShares (DDM)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 212 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $69.86
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $67.27 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.78%
Volume: 286,600 shares. 3 month avg: 331,060 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/29/2015 to 07/06/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Market Vectors Pharmaceutical (PPH)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 165 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $74.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $75.58 or 2.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.20%
Volume: 76,000 shares. 3 month avg: 69,555 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/21/2015 to 07/13/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Nasdaq 100 long 2x Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 78 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $79.72
1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $75.50 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.60%
Volume: 1,809,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,556,642 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/29/2015 to 07/06/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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S and P long 2x Ultra SP 500 ProShares (SSO)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 173 out of 578
7/16/15 close: $68.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.82 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.68%
Volume: 3,070,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,812,978 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/29/2015 to 07/06/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 7/16/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -5.95 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 538 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 293 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 245 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 89/149 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 30/63 or 47.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

My first impression is that the index is forming a measured move down chart pattern. I show three of four portions in the ABC move. D would complete the pattern.

The idea is that the AB move will mirror the CD move. The BC retrace, called the corrective phase, should be longer, so it is a question mark.

If I am right, then look for the index to close lower tomorrow.

$ $ $

This is in regards to the end of yesterday's post. I forgot to mention yesterday that dripping vinegar on your fiberglass tub turns it blue. The spot is easy to remove. Just paint the entire tub blue.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,792.09    
 Weekly S2  4,867.85  75.77   
 Monthly S1  4,945.51  77.66   
 Weekly S1  4,983.40  37.88   
 Weekly Pivot  5,017.05  33.66   
 Monthly Pivot  5,054.94  37.88   
 Daily S2  5,066.93  11.99   
 Daily S1  5,082.93  16.01   
 Low  5,088.12  5.19   
 Close  5,098.94  10.82   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,102.33  3.39   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  5,104.13  1.80   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,106.72  2.59   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,111.11  4.39   
 Open  5,111.11  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  5,120.13  9.02   
 High  5,125.32  5.19   
 Weekly R1  5,132.60  7.28   
 Daily R2  5,141.33  8.73   
 Weekly R2  5,166.25  24.93   
 Monthly R1  5,208.36  42.11   
 Monthly R2  5,317.79  109.42   

Wednesday 7/15/15. Chart Pattern Indicator:Bullish Divergence

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The blue lines from May and June show mild bullish divergence. The red lines, most prominent on the indicator, also shows bullish divergence.

The indicator has topped out and rounded over. The index could continue to move up, since it hasn't peaked yet. Thus, the index could really be convergent, not divergent.

As you know, bullish divergence suggests, but does not guarantee, that the index will follow the indicator higher.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The green lines show that the indicator is bullish, so I expect the indices to climb higher in the coming week.

$ $ $

A few days ago, I filled a plastic sandwich bag with vinegar and used a rubber band to hold it in place around a shower head. That was to melt away the calcium in the shower head. Wow! It worked. I had used a needle and toothpick to enlarge the holes, but this was so much better.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 7/14/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 1.2% or 217.27 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 294 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 160 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 134 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 95/159 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 26/48 or 54.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The blue line represent overhead resistance when the index was below it, but now it represents support, should the index drop that far.

A descending triangle or flag appears at BC. The breakout from the triangle is upward, which is unusual for this chart pattern.

If you consider this a flag and use the height of the flagpole (AB), you can add it to the breakout price (C) or bottom of the flag to get a target of about 18,100.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,154.26    
 Weekly S2  17,415.14  260.88   
 Monthly S1  17,565.97  150.83   
 Weekly S1  17,696.41  130.44   
 Daily S2  17,717.21  20.80   
 Weekly Pivot  17,746.95  29.74   
 Low  17,787.27  40.32   
 Open  17,787.27  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  17,847.44  60.17   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,863.79  16.34   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  17,877.39  13.61   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,887.42  10.03   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,911.05  23.63   
 Daily Pivot  17,917.51  6.45   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  17,977.68  60.17   
 High  17,987.57  9.89   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  18,028.22  40.65   
 Daily R1  18,047.74  19.52   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  18,078.76  31.02   
 Daily R2  18,117.81  39.05   
 Monthly R1  18,289.10  171.29   
 Monthly R2  18,600.52  311.42   

Monday 7/13/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Dow utility index on the daily scale.

A broadening bottom appears outlined in red. Price touches the two lines twice on the top and three times on the bottom.

I feel at least 5 touches is necessary for a good shape. Otherwise, people tend to create strange combinations that are not broadening patterns.

With broadening bottoms, there is a tendency to form a partial decline. That's when the pattern is established (like this one) and price touches the top trendline, drops but does not come close to the bottom trendline before reversing. An upward breakout often follows.

I show that scenario with the blue line.

That could happen here. Since the utility index is near it's yearly low, that means many electric utility stocks have high yields. Do check the safety of those dividends before buying a utility stock. That means look at the payout ratio. It should be below 100%, say, 70% or so. That means the company still has money left over for other things besides paying the dividend. That's the first step in a safety check, but it's an easy one.

Earnings season has arrived plus there are an unusually large number of economic reports due this week (see below). With China and Greece still to be resolved, this could be a bumpy week. The good news is the chart pattern indicator has turned bullish. That could change after a big down day...

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 46.53 points.
Tuesday: Up 93.33 points.
Wednesday: Down 261.49 points.
Thursday: Up 33.2 points.
Friday: Up 211.79 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 30.3 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 11.51 points or 0.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 0.16 points or 0.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.2% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     4.2% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     3.2% down from the high of 5,164.36 on 06/24/2015.
     9.5% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     2.7% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     4.8% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Treasury budget2:00 MDTracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing).
Retail sales8:30 TA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
International trade8:30 TC+Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others.
Business inventories10:00 TC-Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.
Producer price index8:30 WB-Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation.
Industrial production9:15 WB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Capacity utilization9:15 WB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FEDs Beige book2:00 W?Reports on economic conditions.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Consumer price index8:30 FB+Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services.
Building permits8:30 FB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Housing starts8:30 FB-Number of homes beginning construction.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 07/10/2015, the CPI had:

0 bearish patterns,
33 bullish patterns,
268 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 100.0%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,470  17,615  17,706  17,852  17,943 
Weekly  17,343  17,552  17,675  17,883  18,006 
Monthly  17,082  17,421  17,805  18,144  18,528 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,042  2,059  2,070  2,088  2,099 
Weekly  2,028  2,053  2,068  2,092  2,108 
Monthly  1,998  2,037  2,084  2,123  2,169 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,949  4,973  4,991  5,015  5,032 
Weekly  4,834  4,916  4,983  5,065  5,133 
Monthly  4,758  4,878  5,021  5,141  5,284 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 43.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 52.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks down 7.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 53.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks down 10.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 48.2%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 3 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
21Channel
13Triangle, symmetrical
9Broadening bottom
9Pipe top
7Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
6Rectangle top
5Triple top
5Head-and-shoulders top
4Double Bottom, Eve and Eve
4Broadening top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Furn/Home Furnishings2. Furn/Home Furnishings
3. Human Resources3. Human Resources
4. Shoe4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. Retail (Special Lines)5. Homebuilding
50. Metal Fabricating50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.51. Electric Utility (East)
52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment52. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
53. Electric Utility (West)53. Electric Utility (Central)
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Electric Utility (West)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Saturday 7/11/15. Donation Saturday

So many people have asked how they can donate to this website over the years. I didn't have an answer for them until now.

I added a donate button to the links at the top left of each page and on the home page (top middle) of this website.

With the creation of ad blocking software, revenue is down 60% from its peak, so the donation button is a way for you to help support this website and keep it free.

I remember when I first started this site that people predicted I'd soon start charging for access. That hasn't happened in the 9 years this site has been running, and hopefully it won't happen with your generous contribution.

Thanks.

P.S. If you shop at Amazon.com, please do so through this website. Click on a link (like the pictures of my books on the far left or the Amazon.com link there) and that will take you to Amazon. When you buy anything there during that visit, I receive a small referral fee. It doesn't increase your cost of buying anything while there. It's a lot like using a coupon except I get the coupon value.

Again, thanks.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 7/10/15. Bumper Anniversary

Picture of the Bumper Bench

Today is the one-year anniversary of the death of my dog and best friend, Bumper.

I built a bench in her honor and finished it this morning. I show a picture of it on the right. It's difficult to see in this picture, but one of the slats has carved into the wood, "In loving memory of Bumper 2000 - Jul 10, 2014" followed by a paw print.

Below is a picture of Bumper in happier times.

As the bench picture shows, she was approximately 14 years old when she died. Only the person that abandoned Bumper at a farm when she was young knows hold old she was.

I think she died because of CCD, canine cognitive dysfunction. It's like Alzheimer's only it occurs in dogs.

She started walking in circles and pacing. She'd get stuck between the wall and the dryer and not be able to figure out how to back up and free herself.

Picture of the Bumper Bench

She'd have problems with her bowels and "accidents" became numerous.

She took less and less interest in food. Treats like bananas or apples she abandoned. Getting her to each anything was a chore. It's like she lost the sense of smell.

At the end, her brain told her body that she wasn't hungry and she wasn't thirsty.

She had bout after bout of diarrhea and her crying was frequent at night. She wasn't in pain, just afraid of her now unfamiliar surroundings. I found it difficult to sleep.

I eventually had the vet "put her down" (kill her) because she hadn't eaten for a week and her body was giving out.

In Memoriam

Picture of my dog Bumper

In memoriam: Bumper 2000 to July 10, 2014.

-- Thomas Bulkowski


Friday 7/10/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 32 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 586 stocks searched, or 5.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (13) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AYIChannel      01/09/201507/09/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
AEISScallop, ascending and inverted      05/05/201507/07/2015Semiconductor
AAChannel      05/14/201507/09/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
ATWChannel      05/22/201507/08/2015Petroleum (Producing)
BECNPipe top      06/22/201506/29/2015Retail Building Supply
BZHPipe top      06/22/201506/29/2015Homebuilding
BKHBroadening bottom      06/09/201507/08/2015Electric Utility (West)
COGChannel      06/18/201507/08/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
CSCFalling wedge      06/09/201507/08/2015Computer Software and Svcs
DOChannel      05/14/201507/07/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
^DJUBroadening bottom      06/09/201507/07/2015None
GPNDiamond top      06/08/201507/06/2015Computer Software and Svcs
GXPBroadening bottom      06/05/201507/07/2015Electric Utility (Central)
GLFChannel      05/13/201507/09/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
HSCRectangle bottom      02/18/201507/09/2015Diversified Co.
HEBroadening top, right-angled and descending      05/26/201507/09/2015Electric Utility (West)
MGEETriangle, ascending      05/20/201507/06/2015Electric Utility (Central)
MLHRPipe top      06/22/201506/29/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
NFGChannel      05/18/201507/09/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
PEGBroadening bottom      06/05/201507/08/2015Electric Utility (East)
QLGCDead-cat bounce      07/09/201507/09/2015Semiconductor
RTIChannel      05/04/201507/08/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
SWXTriangle, symmetrical      06/01/201507/06/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
SWNChannel      05/14/201507/08/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
SEChannel      04/23/201507/09/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SCSPipe top      06/22/201506/29/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
SWCChannel      06/02/201507/09/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
TEBroadening bottom      06/05/201507/09/2015Electric Utility (East)
RIGChannel      06/11/201507/09/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
IYCRectangle top      02/20/201507/09/2015Retail Store
FDNBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      05/12/201507/09/2015Internet
PXJBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      01/14/201507/08/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/02/2015 and 07/09/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Acuity Brands, Inc (AYI)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 27 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $187.81
1 Month avg volatility: $3.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $181.48 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 34.08%
Volume: 415,500 shares. 3 month avg: 375,872 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/09/2015 to 07/09/2015

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Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 73 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $26.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.07 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.15%
Volume: 255,500 shares. 3 month avg: 272,358 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 05/05/2015 to 07/07/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Alcoa (AA)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 566 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $10.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.09 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -32.93%
Volume: 40,217,000 shares. 3 month avg: 21,525,343 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/14/2015 to 07/09/2015

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Atwood Oceanics Inc. (ATW)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 430 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $24.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.72 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.62%
Volume: 2,160,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,361,240 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/22/2015 to 07/08/2015

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Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 91 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $31.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.49 or 6.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.91%
Volume: 277,300 shares. 3 month avg: 378,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/22/2015 to 06/29/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 301 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $19.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.63 or 6.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.10%
Volume: 246,000 shares. 3 month avg: 524,195 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/22/2015 to 06/29/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Black Hills Corp (BKH)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 442 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $46.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.50 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.93%
Volume: 377,200 shares. 3 month avg: 200,217 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/09/2015 to 07/08/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Cabot Oil and Gas A (COG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 231 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $29.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.38 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.10%
Volume: 3,975,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,222,609 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 06/18/2015 to 07/08/2015

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Computer Sciences Corp (CSC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 226 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $65.49
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.24 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.87%
Volume: 1,079,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,181,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 06/09/2015 to 07/08/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Diamond Offshore (DO)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 540 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $25.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.14 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -31.54%
Volume: 2,663,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,849,325 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/14/2015 to 07/07/2015

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DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
7/9/15 close: $567.92
1 Month avg volatility: $6.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $552.77 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.12%
Volume: 18,289,600 shares. 3 month avg: 13,593,660 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/09/2015 to 07/07/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Global Payments Inc (GPN)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 38 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $104.51
1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $109.20 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 29.46%
Volume: 353,100 shares. 3 month avg: 575,568 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 06/08/2015 to 07/06/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Great Plains Energy (GXP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 489 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $24.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.03 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.60%
Volume: 2,698,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,379,877 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/05/2015 to 07/07/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Gulfmark Offshore Inc (GLF)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 574 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $10.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.16 or 12.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -57.21%
Volume: 583,300 shares. 3 month avg: 614,797 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/13/2015 to 07/09/2015

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Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 377 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $16.64
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.94 or 7.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.91%
Volume: 774,400 shares. 3 month avg: 814,723 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 02/18/2015 to 07/09/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 448 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $30.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.45 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.32%
Volume: 248,300 shares. 3 month avg: 539,869 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 05/26/2015 to 07/09/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 475 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $39.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.05 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.96%
Volume: 71,900 shares. 3 month avg: 76,809 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/20/2015 to 07/06/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Miller, Herman (MLHR)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 296 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $28.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.86 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.40%
Volume: 323,900 shares. 3 month avg: 331,652 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/22/2015 to 06/29/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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National Fuel Gas (NFG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 513 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $55.31
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.96 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.45%
Volume: 737,900 shares. 3 month avg: 450,960 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/18/2015 to 07/09/2015

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Public Service Enterprise Group PEG (PEG)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 307 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $41.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.67 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.51%
Volume: 3,298,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,027,514 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/05/2015 to 07/08/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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QLogic Corp (QLGC)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 506 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $11.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.93 or 9.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.42%
Volume: 8,889,800 shares. 3 month avg: 933,669 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 07/09/2015 to 07/09/2015

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RTI International Metals Inc. (RTI)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 45 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $29.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.60 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.57%
Volume: 1,209,800 shares. 3 month avg: 470,212 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/04/2015 to 07/08/2015

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Southwest Gas Corp. (SWX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 455 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $54.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.18 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.21%
Volume: 225,600 shares. 3 month avg: 176,923 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/01/2015 to 07/06/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 472 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $21.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.78 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.84%
Volume: 7,216,900 shares. 3 month avg: 7,601,006 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/14/2015 to 07/08/2015

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Spectra Energy Corp (SE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 428 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $31.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.90 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.38%
Volume: 3,399,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,672,575 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/23/2015 to 07/09/2015

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Steelcase (SCS)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 221 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $18.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.34 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.73%
Volume: 334,500 shares. 3 month avg: 486,923 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/22/2015 to 06/29/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 557 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $10.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.72 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.83%
Volume: 2,490,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,281,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 06/02/2015 to 07/09/2015

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Teco Energy Inc (TE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 461 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $18.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.80 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.59%
Volume: 1,383,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,899,312 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/05/2015 to 07/09/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 418 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $15.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.64 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.89%
Volume: 8,805,900 shares. 3 month avg: 11,551,258 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 06/11/2015 to 07/09/2015

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DJ US consumer svcs index fnd (retail) (IYC)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 193 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $144.15
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $141.55 or 1.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.64%
Volume: 36,700 shares. 3 month avg: 55,980 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/20/2015 to 07/09/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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First Trust DJ Internet ETF (FDN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 121 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $66.62
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.77 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.64%
Volume: 448,600 shares. 3 month avg: 261,663 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 05/12/2015 to 07/09/2015
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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PowerShares Dynamic Oil Services (PXJ)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 381 out of 578
7/9/15 close: $15.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.18 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.63%
Volume: 19,100 shares. 3 month avg: 31,155 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 01/14/2015 to 07/08/2015
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Thursday 7/9/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -1.8% or -87.7 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 51 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 20 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 31 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 60.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 89/149 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 30/62 or 48.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The first thing I noticed about this chart is that a potential double bottom appears at AB. That won't confirm as a valid chart pattern until the index closes above the red line.

What's to prevent that from happening?

Answer: overhead resistance.

Look at the blue line. I drew that starting from the highest peak on the chart, downward to the lowest peak and extended it beyond. That line could mean overhead resistance will block the upward move on Thursday.

One thing that might point the way higher is that today's drop was accompanied by low volume. That means the drop could be a head fake and that the index will rebound. Of course, China and Greece might have to solve their problems before that will happen. And that might take more than a day.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,801.99    
 Monthly S1  4,855.87  53.89   
 Daily S2  4,861.63  5.76   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S2  4,877.55  15.92   
 Daily S1  4,885.70  8.14   
 Weekly S1  4,893.66  7.96   
 Low  4,901.51  7.85   
 Close  4,909.76  8.25   
 Daily Pivot  4,925.57  15.81   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,925.94  0.36   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,933.48  7.54   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,941.02  7.54   
 Daily R1  4,949.64  8.61   
 Open  4,953.98  4.34   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  4,965.45  11.47   
 Weekly Pivot  4,972.33  6.88   
 Weekly R1  4,988.44  16.10   
 Daily R2  4,989.51  1.08   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Monthly Pivot  5,010.12  20.60   
 Monthly R1  5,064.00  53.89   
 Weekly R2  5,067.11  3.11   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  5,218.25  151.13   

Wednesday 7/8/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: Still Bearish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This chart shows a composite of the indicator, index, and signal changes. It does not highlight neutral areas where the indicator is between a buy and sell signal.

The indicator signaled a bearish turn about two weeks ago when the right-most red bar appeared. Since then the index has dropped accordingly.

I believe the indicator has transitioned to neutral today. That could mean we'll have a bullish signal soon, perhaps as soon as Wednesday (I'm writing this Tuesday night).

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 7/7/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.3% or -46.53 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 989 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 468 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 521 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 95/159 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 26/47 or 55.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

Point E is a small head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. Let's call that an Eve bottom. Point A is a narrow spike. Let's call that an Adam bottom. Together, they make a potential Eve & Adam double bottom.

I say potential because it won't become a true double bottom until the index closes above the horizontal red line. While the above probabilities suggest another lower close, my guess is the index will rise above the red line.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,203.99    
 Weekly S2  17,372.03  168.05   
 Monthly S1  17,443.78  71.75   
 Daily S2  17,490.77  46.98   
 Weekly S1  17,527.81  37.04   
 Low  17,564.36  36.55   
 Daily S1  17,587.17  22.81   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,629.30  42.13   
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,649.36  20.06   
 Daily Pivot  17,660.77  11.41   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,669.42  8.65   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  17,683.58  14.16   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  17,728.08  44.50   
 Weekly Pivot  17,732.27  4.19   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 High  17,734.36  2.09   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  17,757.17  22.81   
 Monthly Pivot  17,816.30  59.12   
 Daily R2  17,830.77  14.47   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  17,888.05  57.28   
 Monthly R1  18,056.09  168.05   
 Weekly R2  18,092.51  36.42   
 Monthly R2  18,428.61  336.09   

Monday 7/6/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 index on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The two parallel red lines show an upward channel from which the index has pierced, heading down.

That suggests a trend change from up to down.

The down-sloping green lines form a new channel. It suggests that the index will touch the top of the green channel and then move lower.

With the world in the throes of political and economic turmoil, anything could happen so expect the unexpected.

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 350.33 points.
Tuesday: Up 53.16 points.
Wednesday: Up 108.4 points.
Thursday: Down 27.8 points.
Friday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 216.57 points or 1.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 71.3 points or 1.4%.
The S&P 500 index was down 24.71 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.4% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     4.1% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     3.0% down from the high of 5,164.36 on 06/24/2015.
     9.8% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     2.7% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     4.8% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Trade balance8:30 TC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
Consumer credit3:00 TD-Measures auto, credit card and other debt.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Minutes2:00 W?Minutes of the prior Federal Reserve meeting.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Wholesale inventories10:00 FD-Wholesale sales and inventory statistics.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 07/02/2015, the CPI had:

10 bearish patterns,
3 bullish patterns,
148 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 23.1%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,610  17,670  17,748  17,808  17,886 
Weekly  17,388  17,559  17,748  17,919  18,108 
Monthly  17,219  17,475  17,832  18,087  18,444 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,064  2,070  2,078  2,084  2,092 
Weekly  2,035  2,056  2,077  2,098  2,120 
Monthly  2,014  2,045  2,088  2,119  2,161 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,972  4,991  5,009  5,028  5,046 
Weekly  4,911  4,960  5,005  5,055  5,100 
Monthly  4,835  4,922  5,043  5,130  5,251 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 16.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 52.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 14.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 53.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 17.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 48.2%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 10 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
21Triangle, symmetrical
9Channel
6Rectangle top
5Falling wedge
4Broadening bottom
4Triangle, descending
4Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
4Broadening top
3Rising wedge
3Rectangle bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Furn/Home Furnishings2. Furn/Home Furnishings
3. Human Resources3. Human Resources
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. Homebuilding5. Homebuilding
50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
51. Electric Utility (East)51. Electric Utility (East)
52. Trucking/Transp. Leasing52. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
53. Electric Utility (Central)53. Electric Utility (Central)
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Electric Utility (West)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Thursday 7/2/15. Nasdaq: 38% Fib Retrace

The index climbed by 0.5% or 26.25 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 513 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 358 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 155 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 69.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 89/148 or 60.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 30/62 or 48.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I didn't see anything of value on this chart. Then a new thought occurred to me. How far had price retraced?

The peak on the chart is about 5160 (A) and the low is about 4960 (B), for a 200 point spread. If I did the math right, C is at the 38% Fibonacci retrace of the AB move.

Does that mean we can expect the index to continue moving up? The above probabilities say yes. I'm not so sure. But with Greece in a holding pattern until Monday, up is probably a good bet.

My holiday research suggests there is a 47% chance of a higher close on Thursday and a 44% chance of a higher close on Monday. In other words, the likelihood is that the indices will close lower. Go figure.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,860.96    
 Monthly S1  4,937.04  76.08   
 Daily S2  4,971.29  34.25   
 Weekly S2  4,975.89  4.61   
 Daily S1  4,992.20  16.31   
 Low  4,994.46  2.26   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S1  4,994.51  0.05   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,011.30  16.80   
 Close  5,013.12  1.82   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  5,015.38  2.26   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,016.50  1.13   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,021.71  5.20   
 Open  5,029.05  7.34   
 Daily R1  5,036.29  7.24   
 High  5,038.55  2.26   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Monthly Pivot  5,050.70  12.15   
 Daily R2  5,059.47  8.77   
 Weekly Pivot  5,079.43  19.97   
 Weekly R1  5,098.05  18.61   
 Monthly R1  5,126.78  28.73   
 Weekly R2  5,182.97  56.19   
 Monthly R2  5,240.44  57.47   

Wednesday 7/1/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This chart shows bullish divergence. That means the indicator is making higher peaks but the index is making lower peaks.

The theory is that the index will follow the indicator higher. No time element is set to that, so the index can continue to drop for weeks, even months. But it has been my experience that we'll see a rebound.

Expect continued volatility until the Greece issue is settled.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

$ $ $

A few nights ago, my smoke detector went off at 4:30 AM. It didn't just beep as if needing a battery change, but sounded its horn for about 10 seconds. Then quit.

I checked the house for smoke and flames, but didn't see or smell anything. This happened once before, a few years ago. A false alarm. Or was it?

The next night, I woke up to open my windows and noticed that one of my security lights was off. The plug for that is in the same room where the smoke detector is. I've had problems with that outlet in the past. You have to insert the plug just right or it won't work. So I suspect that the outlet was shorting and the detector caught a whiff of that.

Anyway, I replaced the outlet this morning.

Years ago, I had a problem with my hall lights flickering. It took a few years before I walked by a wall switch that controlled those lights and heard it shorting. After I replaced that switch, no more flickering lights.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.