Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 04/10/2020
  Indus: 23,719 +285.80 +1.2%  
  Trans: 8,237 +84.53 +1.0%  
  Utils: 828 +38.68 +4.9%  
  Nasdaq: 8,154 +62.68 +0.8%  
  S&P 500: 2,790 +39.84 +1.4%  
YTD
-16.9%  
-24.4%  
-5.8%  
-9.1%  
-13.6%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/09/2020  
  Up arrow26,200 or 21,500 by 05/01/2020
  Up arrow9,250 or 7,500 by 05/01/2020
  Up arrow890 or 725 by 05/01/2020
  Up arrow8,800 or 7,450 by 05/01/2020
  Up arrow3,000 or 2,500 by 05/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/23/20
As of 04/10/2020
  Indus: 23,719 +285.80 +1.2%  
  Trans: 8,237 +84.53 +1.0%  
  Utils: 828 +38.68 +4.9%  
  Nasdaq: 8,154 +62.68 +0.8%  
  S&P 500: 2,790 +39.84 +1.4%  
YTD
-16.9%  
-24.4%  
-5.8%  
-9.1%  
-13.6%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/09/2020  
  Up arrow26,200 or 21,500 by 05/01/2020
  Up arrow9,250 or 7,500 by 05/01/2020
  Up arrow890 or 725 by 05/01/2020
  Up arrow8,800 or 7,450 by 05/01/2020
  Up arrow3,000 or 2,500 by 05/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/23/20

 

February 2020 Headlines

Archives


Friday 2/28/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 33 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 5.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 23 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bearish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISPipe top      02/10/202002/18/2020Semiconductor
AJRDPipe top      02/18/202002/18/2020Diversified Co.
AKAMPipe top      02/10/202002/18/2020E-Commerce
AYXPipe top      02/10/202002/18/2020Computer Software and Svcs
AMZNPipe top      02/10/202002/18/2020Internet
ABCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/12/202002/21/2020Biotechnology
BERYDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/06/202002/21/2020Packaging and Container
BLDRBroadening top      11/27/201902/21/2020Retail Building Supply
CDNSPipe top      02/10/202002/18/2020Computer Software and Svcs
CHDDouble Top, Adam and Eve      01/31/202002/24/2020Household Products
CTSHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/06/202002/21/2020IT Services
CMCOHorn top      02/03/202002/18/2020Machinery
CLRDead-cat bounce      02/27/202002/27/2020Petroleum (Producing)
CSODDead-cat bounce      02/25/202002/25/2020E-Commerce
CREETriangle, symmetrical      01/06/202002/21/2020Semiconductor
CROXDead-cat bounce      02/27/202002/27/2020Shoe
DECKPipe top      02/10/202002/18/2020Shoe
DTEDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/06/202002/21/2020Electric Utility (Central)
EBAYDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/04/202002/21/2020Internet
EIXHead-and-shoulders top      01/22/202002/21/2020Electric Utility (West)
EVHDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/17/202002/21/2020Healthcare Information
FISPipe top      02/10/202002/18/2020Computer Software and Svcs
FLIRDead-cat bounce      02/27/202002/27/2020Aerospace/Defense
HBITriangle, symmetrical      02/03/202002/21/2020Apparel
HSCDead-cat bounce      02/26/202002/27/2020Diversified Co.
INFNTriple top      01/02/202002/21/2020Telecom. Equipment
IBPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/24/202002/21/2020Retail Building Supply
NVTAPipe top      02/10/202002/18/2020Medical Services
PLXSPipe top      02/10/202002/18/2020Electronics
PGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/06/202002/21/2020Household Products
SNPSPipe top      02/10/202002/18/2020Computer Software and Svcs
AMTDBroadening bottom      12/20/201902/21/2020Securities Brokerage
VALDead-cat bounce      02/21/202002/24/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/20/2020 and 02/27/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 45 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $60.01
1 Month avg volatility: $2.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $66.18 or 10.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.72%
Volume: 478,800 shares. 3 month avg: 447,252 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 319 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $50.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.36 or 9.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.42%
Volume: 797,300 shares. 3 month avg: 950,497 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/18/2020 to 02/18/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 263 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $89.31
1 Month avg volatility: $2.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $96.85 or 8.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.39%
Volume: 1,654,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,185,974 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Alteryx, Inc (AYX)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 411 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $132.94
1 Month avg volatility: $7.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $153.89 or 15.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 32.85%
Volume: 2,011,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 174 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $1,884.30
1 Month avg volatility: $44.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2,064.09 or 9.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.97%
Volume: 8,015,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,583,803 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

AmerisourceBergen Corp (ABC)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 172 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $86.59
1 Month avg volatility: $2.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $98.45 or 13.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.85%
Volume: 2,566,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,046,918 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/12/2020 to 02/21/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Berry Global Group Inc (BERY)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 358 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $37.58
1 Month avg volatility: $1.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.88 or 11.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.87%
Volume: 2,032,600 shares. 3 month avg: 894,866 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/06/2020 to 02/21/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 67 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $22.99
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.56 or 15.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.52%
Volume: 1,946,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,257,223 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/27/2019 to 02/21/2020
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 320 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $65.84
1 Month avg volatility: $1.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $72.27 or 9.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.07%
Volume: 2,678,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,769,531 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Church and Dwight Co Inc (CHD)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 462 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $71.86
1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.55 or 7.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.16%
Volume: 2,229,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,023,622 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 01/31/2020 to 02/24/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

Top

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (CTSH)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 217 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $62.32
1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $67.16 or 7.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.48%
Volume: 5,214,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,250,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/06/2020 to 02/21/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Columbus McKinnon (CMCO)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 225 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $32.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.62 or 10.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -19.44%
Volume: 167,600 shares. 3 month avg: 120,960 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/18/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 7%.
Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Continental Resources Inc. (CLR)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 582 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $17.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.53 or 17.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -49.10%
Volume: 12,047,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,362,946 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/27/2020 to 02/27/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Cornerstone OnDemand Inc (CSOD)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 531 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $41.39
1 Month avg volatility: $1.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.99 or 11.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -29.31%
Volume: 2,441,800 shares. 3 month avg: 697,858 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/25/2020 to 02/25/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Cree Inc (CREE)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 314 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $43.41
1 Month avg volatility: $1.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.15 or 9.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.94%
Volume: 1,687,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,005,123 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/06/2020 to 02/21/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

CROCS Inc (CROX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 48 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $28.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.92 or 19.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -32.08%
Volume: 4,283,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,230,068 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/27/2020 to 02/27/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 63 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $173.92
1 Month avg volatility: $5.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $191.79 or 10.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.00%
Volume: 488,900 shares. 3 month avg: 637,325 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

DTE Energy Company (DTE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 446 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $118.01
1 Month avg volatility: $1.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $128.18 or 8.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.13%
Volume: 2,247,800 shares. 3 month avg: 979,609 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 02/06/2020 to 02/21/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

Top

eBay, Inc. (EBAY)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 490 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $35.04
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.78 or 10.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.96%
Volume: 16,110,500 shares. 3 month avg: 8,868,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 02/04/2020 to 02/21/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Top

Edison International (EIX)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 336 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $70.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.07 or 9.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.84%
Volume: 2,109,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,498,883 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/22/2020 to 02/21/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Top

Evolent Health, Inc (EVH)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 21 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $9.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.84 or 17.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.21%
Volume: 1,102,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 01/17/2020 to 02/21/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/27/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/27/2020.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Top

Fidelity National Information Svcs (FIS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 262 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $138.87
1 Month avg volatility: $3.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $152.65 or 9.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.16%
Volume: 4,392,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,473,917 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 426 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $44.43
1 Month avg volatility: $1.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.03 or 14.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.68%
Volume: 3,978,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,165,460 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/27/2020 to 02/27/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Hanesbrand Inc. (HBI)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 385 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $12.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.02 or 14.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.40%
Volume: 11,874,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,164,918 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/21/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 579 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $10.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.11 or 23.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -53.67%
Volume: 2,637,500 shares. 3 month avg: 523,465 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/26/2020 to 02/27/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 25 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $6.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.04 or 18.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.74%
Volume: 4,017,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,624,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 01/02/2020 to 02/21/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Top

Installed Building Products Inc (IBP)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 52 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $68.81
1 Month avg volatility: $2.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $76.32 or 10.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.09%
Volume: 544,800 shares. 3 month avg: 201,345 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/24/2020 to 02/21/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Invitae Corp (NVTA)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 503 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $20.23
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.93 or 18.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 25.42%
Volume: 3,878,800 shares. 3 month avg: 321,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Plexus Corp (PLXS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 71 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $66.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $73.48 or 11.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.95%
Volume: 158,500 shares. 3 month avg: 160,228 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Procter and Gamble Co (PG)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 415 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $113.50
1 Month avg volatility: $2.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $123.94 or 9.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.13%
Volume: 13,296,800 shares. 3 month avg: 7,163,346 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/06/2020 to 02/21/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Synopsys Inc (SNPS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 289 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $136.83
1 Month avg volatility: $3.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $149.23 or 9.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.70%
Volume: 1,840,100 shares. 3 month avg: 998,728 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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TD AmeriTrade Holding A (AMTD)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 237 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $43.75
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.99 or 10.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.97%
Volume: 10,247,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,043,012 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 12/20/2019 to 02/21/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/01/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 03/31/2020.
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Valaris Plc (VAL)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 568 out of 590
2/27/20 close: $3.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.01 or 31.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -53.51%
Volume: 6,747,300 shares. 3 month avg: 16,303,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/21/2020 to 02/24/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Thursday 2/27/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Trading Range

The index climbed by 0.2% or 15.16 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 683 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 396 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 287 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 186/330 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/106 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This week, I wanted to zoom into the Nasdaq's price action, so I show only the last 5 days.

A few things become visible. The horizontal red line shows where I expect overhead resistance to appear. The resistance is formed by the peaks shown on the chart, the ones which touch the line.

The green line, also a horizontal one, shows support. It's had three tests of that line and price is moving horizontally during the last hour or so, as if trying to decide which way to go.

Because it's closer to support, one might guess that the index will rise. The above probabilities also support that notion.

At AB is a double bottom. It confirms and reaches the measure rule target by rising to C. The MR target is the height of the pattern added to the top of it, in this case.

I've been thinking about what I wrote yesterday, about the market bottoming in a V-shaped turn. With news of the virus spreading, this might be a drip, drip, drip of bad news each day, helping to keep the markets from skyrocketing. Thus, we might bottom and move sideways, probably with large daily up and down swings until this all gets sorted out.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  8,552.06    
 Monthly S1  8,766.42  214.35   
 Daily S2  8,798.44  32.03   
 Daily S1  8,889.61  91.16   
 Low  8,927.80  38.19   
 Close  8,980.77  52.97   
 Open  9,011.55  30.78   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  9,012.04  0.49   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  9,018.96  6.92   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  9,038.06  19.10   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  9,064.08  26.02   
 Weekly S1  9,069.28  5.20   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  9,110.13  40.85   
 High  9,148.32  38.19   
 Weekly S2  9,157.78  9.46   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  9,239.48  81.70   
 Monthly Pivot  9,302.39  62.91   
 Weekly R1  9,365.32  62.92   
 Weekly Pivot  9,453.82  88.51   
 Monthly R1  9,516.75  62.92   
 Weekly R2  9,749.86  233.12   
 Monthly R2  10,052.72  302.86   

Wednesday 2/26/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I discussed the CPI chart yesterday, so there's not much to add today. We saw the Dow drop again, over three percent, today (Tuesday).

Where's the bottom? We'll know for sure after its in place. Before that, everyone is guessing. However, I'm still convinced that this is a buying opportunity. And I think others feel the same. That means this is going to be a V-shaped bottom. So expect the market to rebound sharply....when it does turn.

However, when will it turn upward is a puzzle. We might see the market continue to drop on Wednesday. The close near Tuesday's low suggests more of a down move coming at the open. But things can change. Clearly the market will drop to a point that it's too cheap to pass up and the smart money will pounce. Then you'll see the market go up by a thousand points in one frenzy buying session. Those who sold will be saying, "I should have held on instead of selling near the bottom."

Drops like this are buying opportunities. This is when you don't follow the crowd and sell everything. I'm not saying more pain is coming. I don't know. But I like buying stocks on sale, at 6.5% off (so far).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 40% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 26%.
The fewest was 21% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 49% on 05/31/2019.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 489 stocks in my database are down an average of 21% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 24% on 08/23/2019.

The above statistics show the largest drop I've seen since I've been posting these numbers. A 14 percentage point drop in a week (red line) and 7 percentage points for the blue line. Wow.

If you look at the chart, you'll see bearish divergence. I show that on this chart with the up-sloping line in the index and the two red lines on the indicators.

The bearish divergence means weakness, which we're seeing now.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/25/20. Market Forecast Update!

The index dropped by -3.6% or -1031.61 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 15 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.3% on 8 occasions.
     Average loss was -2.6% on 7 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 200/342 or 58.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/78 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I was going to post another slider quiz, but I thought you'd want to know my views on the market.

I'm still bullish. I think the Covid-19 virus may have peaked in China (they said new cases have leveled off), suggesting it's on its way to burning itself out. But that could still mean a bumpy ride from here as other countries try to contain their problems. I think in a few month's time, this drop will be a memory.

In other words, this is a buy-the-dip opportunity. The market might see some panic selling at the open, and if the above average loss is correct (down 2.6%), Tuesday is going to be nasty. I believe the smart money is going to sit back, wait for the market to bottom, and then buy (but maybe not tomorrow, but they will...soon).

Here's a tip you may find useful, but I don't know if it applies to Monday's big drop. Stocks that dropped the most during a bear market bounce back further than do those that retained more of their value on the way down. See Price Recovery for more information.

Here's what the indices have done so far this year, as of Friday's close and Monday's close.

Market Performance YTD 2/23/20   2/24/20 
Dow utilities (best performance)7.9% 6.5%
Nasdaq6.7% 2.8%
S&P 5003.3% -0.2%
Dow industrials1.6% -2.0%
Dow transports (worst performance)0.1% -3.6%

The following table is a list of the five best and worst performing industries (that I follow) over the last six months, including Monday's big drop.

Performance over 6 months
1. Home building32%
2. Semiconductor30%
3. Computers and peripherals24%
4. Semiconductor capital equipment21%
5. Building materials20%
Top Performers Above, Worst Below
58. Oil services/equipment-11%
57. Natural gas, distributor-6%
56. Natural gas, diversified-5%
55. Petroleum, integrated-4%
54. Human resources-2%

To update the forecast, which I usually do at month's end, I am doing today. Click this link to view the results in slider format. It shows the current chart pattern indicator graph, and updates the 2020 forecast for the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P indices.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  27,167.30    
 Monthly S1  27,564.05  396.75   
 Daily S2  27,601.57  37.52   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Daily S1  27,781.18  179.62   
 Low  27,912.44  131.26   
 Close  27,960.80  48.36   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  28,092.06  131.26   
 Weekly S1  28,099.30  7.25   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  28,099.81  0.50   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  28,157.69  57.88   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  28,215.56  57.88   
 Weekly S2  28,237.81  22.24   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  28,271.67  33.87   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Open  28,402.93  131.26   
 High  28,402.93  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Monthly Pivot  28,566.31  163.38   
 Daily R2  28,582.55  16.24   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  28,615.69  33.15   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly Pivot  28,754.20  138.50   
 Monthly R1  28,963.06  208.86   
 Weekly R2  29,270.59  307.53   
 Monthly R2  29,965.32  694.73   

Monday 2/24/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

Here's an interesting picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale. Why is it unusual?

Because I mirrored the left side of the chart onto the right.

When I first looked at the chart, I was struck with symmetry. Fortunately, I wasn't hurt. Smile

By that I mean peaks on the left mirrored those on the right. Now that I look at it, I'm scratching my head where the symmetry went to. Apparently, it hit me harder than I understood.

Anyway, I reflected the left portion and pasted it into the chart to the right of the vertical red line.

The index might follow this waveform, but probably won't be an exact copy.

If it does follow this chart, then we're looking for a big drop coming. That idea also follows the 2020 forecast. That forecast has the Dow industrials (not the transports), falling to 26,446 by March. It's at about 29,000 now, so that's a big plunge.

Hold on tight...

Concern is growing that the Covid-19 virus could become much worse worldwide, hurting commerce. I'm still not concerned, but what do I know?

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 165.89 points.
Wednesday: Up 115.84 points.
Thursday: Down 128.05 points.
Friday: Down 227.57 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 405.67 points or 1.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 154.59 points or 1.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 42.41 points or 1.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.9% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     2.9% up from the low of 28,169.56 on 01/31/2020.
Nasdaq
     2.7% down from the high of 9,838.37 on 02/19/2020.
     7.1% up from the low of 8,943.50 on 01/06/2020.
S&P 500
     1.6% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     3.8% up from the low of 3,214.64 on 01/06/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  28,757  28,875  29,011  29,128  29,264 
Weekly  28,582  28,787  29,098  29,303  29,614 
Monthly  27,511  28,252  28,910  29,651  30,309 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,310  3,324  3,342  3,356  3,375 
Weekly  3,288  3,313  3,353  3,378  3,418 
Monthly  3,136  3,237  3,315  3,416  3,494 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  9,438  9,507  9,612  9,681  9,785 
Weekly  9,356  9,466  9,652  9,763  9,948 
Monthly  8,751  9,164  9,501  9,914  10,251 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 27.0%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 55.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 25.3%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 56.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 26.7%   The trend may continue. 
 6 months up 14.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
21Pipe bottom
14Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
9Dead-cat bounce
9Triangle, symmetrical
9Broadening top
7Scallop, ascending
5Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
4Pipe top
4Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
4Diamond top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor
2. Homebuilding2. Homebuilding
3. Computers and Peripherals3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Computers and Peripherals
5. Shoe5. Shoe

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/21/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 10 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 1.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABTTriangle, symmetrical      01/29/202002/20/2020Medical Supplies
AEORectangle bottom      12/11/201902/20/2020Apparel
ARCBFlag      02/13/202002/20/2020Trucking/Transp. Leasing
ASNADouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/06/202002/18/2020Apparel
CBTTriangle, symmetrical      02/04/202002/20/2020Chemical (Diversified)
CALDead-cat bounce      02/14/202002/14/2020Shoe
CNPTriple top      01/02/202002/14/2020Electric Utility (Central)
CSCOBroadening top      12/20/201902/20/2020Computers and Peripherals
MTRNPipe top      02/03/202002/10/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
STMPFlag, high and tight      02/03/202002/20/2020Internet
TLRDPipe bottom      02/03/202002/10/2020Retail (Special Lines)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/13/2020 and 02/20/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 398 out of 590
2/20/20 close: $88.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $85.36 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.84%
Volume: 3,657,500 shares. 3 month avg: 6,008,617 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/29/2020 to 02/20/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 525 out of 590
2/20/20 close: $14.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.90 or 7.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.41%
Volume: 7,056,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,309,748 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 12/11/2019 to 02/20/2020
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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ArcBest Corp (ARCB)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 547 out of 590
2/20/20 close: $25.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.58 or 10.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.06%
Volume: 201,700 shares. 3 month avg: 234,063 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/13/2020 to 02/20/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 309 out of 590
2/20/20 close: $6.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.70 or 39.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.29%
Volume: 2,051,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 02/06/2020 to 02/18/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cabot Corp. (CBT)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 278 out of 590
2/20/20 close: $43.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.03 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.88%
Volume: 264,500 shares. 3 month avg: 325,852 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/04/2020 to 02/20/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Caleres (CAL)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 512 out of 590
2/20/20 close: $14.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.81 or 11.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -40.13%
Volume: 778,100 shares. 3 month avg: 329,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/14/2020 to 02/14/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 518 out of 590
2/20/20 close: $25.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $27.39 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.68%
Volume: 9,634,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,845,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 01/02/2020 to 02/14/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 491 out of 590
2/20/20 close: $46.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.55 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.31%
Volume: 20,279,300 shares. 3 month avg: 19,682,477 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/20/2019 to 02/20/2020
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Materion Corp (MTRN)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 562 out of 590
2/20/20 close: $50.03
1 Month avg volatility: $1.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.42 or 10.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.85%
Volume: 111,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/10/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Stamps.com (STMP)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 2 out of 590
2/20/20 close: $157.99
1 Month avg volatility: $4.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $115.08 or 27.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 89.16%
Volume: 7,045,600 shares. 3 month avg: 426,580 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/20/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 517 out of 590
2/20/20 close: $4.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.75 or 12.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.86%
Volume: 2,066,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,195,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/10/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 09/12/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 03/12/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 2/20/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.9% or 84.44 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 298 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 194 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 104 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 65.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 186/329 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/106 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index is rounding over. I show that curve at B, a nice and gentle move. But it suggests the easing will continue, meaning the index will go down.

Support rests within the two horizontal lines at A. I drew it loosely, touching peaks and valleys and wasn't concerned with the index slicing through price. If the index were to drop, I'd expect it to find support within the lines.

Having written that, it's possible that the index is pausing, regrouping strength to power to a new high. The above probabilities say there's a 65% chance of that happening. So maybe it will. But to me, the rounded turn looks like weakness. I'll let you and the markets be the final judge as to what direction the index will take.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  8,890.90    
 Monthly S1  9,354.04  463.14   
 Weekly S2  9,431.69  77.65   
 Monthly Pivot  9,551.18  119.49   
 Weekly S1  9,624.43  73.25   
 Weekly Pivot  9,686.38  61.94   
 Daily S2  9,749.61  63.24   
 Low  9,777.10  27.49   
 Open  9,782.81  5.71   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  9,783.40  0.59   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  9,800.50  17.11   
 50% Down from Intraday High  9,807.74  7.23   
 Daily Pivot  9,810.88  3.15   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  9,814.96  4.08   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  9,817.18  2.21   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  9,838.37  21.19   
 Daily R1  9,844.67  6.30   
 Daily R2  9,872.15  27.49   
 Weekly R1  9,879.12  6.97   
 Weekly R2  9,941.07  61.94   
 Monthly R1  10,014.32  73.25   
 Monthly R2  10,211.46  197.14   

Wednesday 2/19/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The vertical green bar on the far right of the chart still stands and because it's been there longer than a week, it's not going away.

Having said that, look at the indicator line near the bottom of the chart. It's heading lower and it rounded over about a week ago. That's bearish.

The indicator hasn't dropped below 35 to trigger a signal change, so the indicator is in the neutral zone, and yet it's hinting of changing to bearish. A big move up would change that sentiment, though.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 26% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 27%.
The fewest was 21% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 49% on 05/31/2019.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 489 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 24% on 08/23/2019.

Both indicators show improvement this week over last week at this time. That's the good news.

The bad news is...well, there isn't any bad news except that both lines have rounded over and are heading down. These two lines mirror what the prior chart's CPI line is doing, although not as pronounced or as long (meaning the CPI line has been trending lower for a week now). The red and blue lines have turned down in the last two or three days.

Both charts are hinting of the indices turning lower. It might not happen, but they are whispering their worry.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/18/20. Slider Tutorial Tuesday!

The index dropped by -0.1% or -25.23 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1344 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 701 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 643 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 200/341 or 58.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/78 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider tutorial featuring the 1-2-3 trend change. It describes how to detect a trend change.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  27,646.39    
 Monthly S1  28,522.24  875.84   
 Weekly S2  28,747.86  225.62   
 Monthly Pivot  29,045.40  297.54   
 Weekly S1  29,072.97  27.57   
 Daily S2  29,201.57  128.60   
 Low  29,283.18  81.61   
 Daily S1  29,299.83  16.65   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  29,320.77  20.94   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  29,351.89  31.12   
 50% Down from Intraday High  29,373.11  21.22   
 Daily Pivot  29,381.43  8.32   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  29,394.33  12.90   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  29,398.08  3.75   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  29,440.47  42.39   
 High  29,463.04  22.57   
 Daily R1  29,479.69  16.65   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  29,561.29  81.61   
 Weekly R1  29,645.88  84.59   
 Weekly R2  29,893.68  247.80   
 Monthly R1  29,921.25  27.57   
 Monthly R2  30,444.41  523.17   

Monday 2/17/19. Feeding ThePatternSite.

I released a new version of Patternz. This has a few bug fixes, but it introduces a Forecast Form to help you find unusual patterns and discover how they may perform.

Today (Monday) is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images either along the left side or at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site.

  2. You can click on an ad. Please don't click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site. Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of the page.

Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski

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Friday 2/14/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 23 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 3.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 13 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (14) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/03/202002/10/2020Semiconductor
AMDPipe bottom      01/27/202002/03/2020Semiconductor
ALRMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/03/202002/07/2020Computer Software and Svcs
ANTMPipe bottom      01/27/202002/03/2020Medical Services
AMATPipe bottom      01/27/202002/03/2020Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BBBYDead-cat bounce      02/12/202002/12/2020Retail (Special Lines)
BLDRDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/31/202002/07/2020Retail Building Supply
CXTriple top      01/22/202002/11/2020Cement and Aggregates
CHSTriangle, symmetrical      01/03/202002/11/2020Apparel
CWRoof, inverted      01/16/202002/13/2020Machinery
FLEXDiamond top      01/17/202002/13/2020Electronics
FLSDiamond bottom      01/27/202002/12/2020Machinery
FORMDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/31/202002/10/2020Semiconductor
FDPPipe bottom      01/27/202002/03/2020Food Processing
GDPipe bottom      01/27/202002/03/2020Aerospace/Defense
HONDiamond bottom      01/27/202002/10/2020Aerospace/Defense
IDXXDiamond bottom      01/27/202002/10/2020Drug
NSPDead-cat bounce      02/12/202002/12/2020Human Resources
ISRGPipe bottom      01/27/202002/03/2020Medical Supplies
KELYADouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      02/03/202002/10/2020Human Resources
LAWSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/31/202002/07/2020Metal Fabricating
LOWBroadening top      12/16/201902/12/2020Retail Building Supply
MROHead-and-shoulders top      01/29/202002/12/2020Petroleum (Integrated)
MCHXDead-cat bounce      02/13/202002/13/2020Advertising
MUPipe bottom      01/27/202002/03/2020Semiconductor
MYGNDead-cat bounce      02/07/202002/07/2020Biotechnology
NVDAPipe bottom      01/27/202002/03/2020Semiconductor
OLNPipe bottom      01/27/202002/03/2020Chemical (Basic)
OMCDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/30/202002/07/2020Advertising
STMPPipe bottom      01/27/202002/03/2020Internet
SXIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/04/202002/07/2020Diversified Co.
SSYSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/31/202002/10/2020Electronics
TERPipe bottom      01/27/202002/03/2020Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WLKPipe bottom      01/27/202002/03/2020Chemical (Basic)
XLNXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/03/202002/10/2020Semiconductor Cap Equip.
QTECPipe bottom      01/27/202002/03/2020Electronics

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/06/2020 and 02/13/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 16 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $77.94
1 Month avg volatility: $2.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.45 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.47%
Volume: 325,900 shares. 3 month avg: 447,252 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/10/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 8 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $54.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.08 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.91%
Volume: 50,786,400 shares. 3 month avg: 56,512,782 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Alarm.com Holdings inc (ALRM)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 462 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $47.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.29 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.54%
Volume: 198,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/07/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Anthem (ANTM)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 360 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $298.87
1 Month avg volatility: $7.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $279.63 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.05%
Volume: 1,931,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,801,302 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Applied Materials (AMAT)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 42 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $67.37
1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.66 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.37%
Volume: 21,642,800 shares. 3 month avg: 11,583,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 31 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $11.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.32 or 12.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -31.73%
Volume: 12,641,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,821,077 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/12/2020 to 02/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 34 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $27.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.93 or 10.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.01%
Volume: 1,807,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,257,223 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 01/31/2020 to 02/07/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cemex SA de CV (CX)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 92 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $3.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.45 or 12.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.50%
Volume: 15,467,800 shares. 3 month avg: 9,928,860 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 01/22/2020 to 02/11/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Chicos FAS Inc. (CHS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 83 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $4.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.61 or 10.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.25%
Volume: 1,770,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,783,222 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/03/2020 to 02/11/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Curtiss-Wright (CW)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 132 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $148.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $152.13 or 2.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.12%
Volume: 281,300 shares. 3 month avg: 230,622 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 01/16/2020 to 02/13/2020
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Flextronics International Ltd (FLEX)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 66 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $13.64
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.62 or 7.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.08%
Volume: 2,741,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,241,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 01/17/2020 to 02/13/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Flowserve Corp (FLS)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 328 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $46.96
1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.64 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.65%
Volume: 1,534,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,457,883 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/12/2020
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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FormFactor Inc. (FORM)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 17 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $27.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.98 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.93%
Volume: 472,200 shares. 3 month avg: 748,688 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 01/31/2020 to 02/10/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 109 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $34.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.02 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.12%
Volume: 92,000 shares. 3 month avg: 288,512 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 438 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $189.43
1 Month avg volatility: $2.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $181.72 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.42%
Volume: 1,499,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,076,035 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 355 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $180.12
1 Month avg volatility: $2.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $173.20 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.76%
Volume: 1,959,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,744,942 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/10/2020
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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IDEXX Laboratories, Inc (IDXX)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 426 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $285.05
1 Month avg volatility: $6.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $269.19 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.16%
Volume: 283,900 shares. 3 month avg: 512,494 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/10/2020
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Insperity (NSP)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $73.03
1 Month avg volatility: $2.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $78.12 or 7.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.12%
Volume: 1,449,700 shares. 3 month avg: 131,942 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/12/2020 to 02/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 202 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $600.35
1 Month avg volatility: $9.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $573.28 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.56%
Volume: 750,000 shares. 3 month avg: 734,668 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Kelly Services A (KELYA)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 572 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $20.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.22 or 16.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.64%
Volume: 545,000 shares. 3 month avg: 173,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/10/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 40%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

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Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 108 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $48.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.01 or 9.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.01%
Volume: 20,800 shares. 3 month avg: 11,408 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/31/2020 to 02/07/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Lowes Companies, Inc (LOW)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 93 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $124.77
1 Month avg volatility: $2.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $129.33 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.18%
Volume: 2,516,800 shares. 3 month avg: 6,401,252 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/16/2019 to 02/12/2020
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Marathon Oil (MRO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 537 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $11.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.93 or 7.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -18.19%
Volume: 30,284,000 shares. 3 month avg: 12,845,475 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/29/2020 to 02/12/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Marchex, Inc (MCHX)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 525 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $3.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.69 or 12.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -12.96%
Volume: 1,354,600 shares. 3 month avg: 97,160 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/13/2020 to 02/13/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Micron Technology (MU)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 51 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $59.33
1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.55 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.32%
Volume: 23,510,000 shares. 3 month avg: 38,182,855 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Myriad Genetics Inc (MYGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 570 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $19.54
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.07 or 12.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -28.24%
Volume: 921,500 shares. 3 month avg: 906,888 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/07/2020 to 02/07/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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NVidia Corp (NVDA)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 7 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $270.78
1 Month avg volatility: $5.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $257.53 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.08%
Volume: 11,561,100 shares. 3 month avg: 15,363,712 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Olin Corp. (OLN)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 445 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $17.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.65 or 10.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.74%
Volume: 2,964,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,697,154 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 440 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $79.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $75.89 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.84%
Volume: 2,694,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,548,395 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 01/30/2020 to 02/07/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Stamps.com (STMP)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 24 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $85.79
1 Month avg volatility: $3.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.96 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.72%
Volume: 245,400 shares. 3 month avg: 426,580 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Standex International Corp (SXI)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 162 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $74.29
1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.99 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.38%
Volume: 33,700 shares. 3 month avg: 37,109 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/04/2020 to 02/07/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Stratasys Ltd (SSYS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 534 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $20.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.34 or 10.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.82%
Volume: 527,900 shares. 3 month avg: 835,520 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/31/2020 to 02/10/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Teradyne Inc. (TER)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 47 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $72.58
1 Month avg volatility: $2.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $67.98 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.44%
Volume: 2,071,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,362,042 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Westlake Chemical Corp (WLK)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 358 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $66.82
1 Month avg volatility: $1.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.61 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.75%
Volume: 488,500 shares. 3 month avg: 812,517 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Xilinx Inc (XLNX)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 548 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $90.41
1 Month avg volatility: $2.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $84.41 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.53%
Volume: 3,203,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,055,762 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/10/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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First Trust NASDAQ 100 Tech Sector ETF (QTEC)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 112 out of 590
2/13/20 close: $108.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $104.79 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.31%
Volume: 145,500 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 2/13/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.9% or 87.02 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 297 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 194 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 103 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 65.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 186/328 or 56.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/106 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index moved horizontally for most of the day but it peaked above the top of the line near the close. You can't see it on this chart, but it's there.

The pattern formed by the red lines is called a rectangle top. That's two parallel (or nearly so) trendlines with plenty of crossing from side to side. This one has an upward breakout.

If we were on the daily scale, I'd say to watch for a throwback to the top of the pattern (the breakout price), but intraday that doesn't work well because of the opening gap.

Still, it's a bullish sign (an upward breakout, that is).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  8,782.88    
 Weekly S2  9,109.61  326.73   
 Monthly S1  9,254.42  144.81   
 Monthly Pivot  9,415.04  160.62   
 Weekly S1  9,417.79  2.75   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  9,496.72  78.94   
 Daily S2  9,645.05  148.32   
 Low  9,666.68  21.63   
 Daily S1  9,685.50  18.82   
 Open  9,688.60  3.10   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  9,690.40  1.80   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  9,697.72  7.33   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  9,705.05  7.33   
 Daily Pivot  9,707.14  2.08   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  9,725.96  18.82   
 High  9,728.77  2.81   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  9,747.59  18.82   
 Daily R2  9,769.23  21.63   
 Weekly R1  9,804.90  35.67   
 Weekly R2  9,883.83  78.94   
 Monthly R1  9,886.58  2.75   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  10,047.20  160.62   

Wednesday 2/12/20. Indicators Still Bullish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator changed to bullish a week ago and the market has responded by rising. I show that on the chart by the vertical green line.

Look at the indicator line, the thin blue one near chart bottom. It's bullish, too. I'd like to warn that hitting the ceiling means there's nowhere to go but down. However, if you look at what happened in the past, the indicator has hit the ceiling and bumped its head for weeks against it. Not always, of course. There have been discrete peaks where price hit the roof and turned lower immediately. The peak after January is an example.

I get the sense, but have no proof, that the index will continue to rise steadily and the indicator will continue to hit the ceiling. Trump and worries about COVID-19 (novel coronavirus) could change that, though.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 26% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 27%.
The fewest was 21% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 49% on 05/31/2019.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 489 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 24% on 08/23/2019.

Both lines show modest improvement from a week ago.

There is divergence between the indicator lines and the index. How so? The indicators peaked about a month ago and remain below that peak. However, the index is making new highs.

One could say the index is rising and the indicator is struggling, generally trending lower. I can't see a similar situation on the chart, so this is new. It's also bearish. The broader market is doing worse than the index. Sooner or later, that weakness will be reflected in the index.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/11/20. Slider Tutorial: Trendlines!

The index climbed by 0.6% or 174.31 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 854 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 478 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 376 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 200/340 or 58.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/78 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a slider tutorial on trendlines chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  27,712.99    
 Weekly S2  27,913.11  200.12   
 Monthly S1  28,494.90  581.80   
 Weekly S1  28,594.96  100.06   
 Daily S2  28,901.11  306.14   
 Monthly Pivot  28,951.48  50.37   
 Low  28,995.66  44.18   
 Open  28,995.66  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  29,001.51  5.85   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Daily S1  29,088.96  87.46   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  29,103.54  14.58   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  29,136.87  33.32   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  29,170.19  33.32   
 Daily Pivot  29,183.52  13.33   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  29,276.82  93.30   
 High  29,278.07  1.25   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  29,371.37  93.30   
 Daily R2  29,465.93  94.55   
 Weekly R1  29,683.36  217.44   
 Monthly R1  29,733.39  50.03   
 Weekly R2  30,089.91  356.51   
 Monthly R2  30,189.97  100.06   

Monday 2/10/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I like how the index has climbed in a nice straight-line run from the resistance line at B to peak at C.

The question I ask now, is what comes next?

That question is harder to answer.

First, I drew a resistance line, B, connecting recent peaks. That line will become a support line should the index drop back to that level.

Then I looked at the move up to B, that is, the move from A to B. That corresponds to the move from B to C.

That rise-retrace-rise pattern is what's called a measured move up (MMU) chart pattern. One of the key features of the MMU is how price behaves after it's done. Price returns to the corrective phase (that's B in this picture) 57% of the time. The other 43% see price drop some but not decline far enough to reach B before soaring.

So that's the template I'm following, a retrace down to the corrective phase.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 143.78 points.
Tuesday: Up 407.82 points.
Wednesday: Up 483.22 points.
Thursday: Up 88.92 points.
Friday: Down 277.26 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 846.48 points or 3.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 369.57 points or 4.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 102.19 points or 3.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.0% down from the high of 29,408.05 on 02/06/2020.
     3.3% up from the low of 28,169.56 on 01/31/2020.
Nasdaq
     0.6% down from the high of 9,575.66 on 02/06/2020.
     6.5% up from the low of 8,943.50 on 01/06/2020.
S&P 500
     0.6% down from the high of 3,347.96 on 02/06/2020.
     3.5% up from the low of 3,214.64 on 01/06/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  28,919  29,011  29,149  29,241  29,379 
Weekly  27,855  28,479  28,943  29,567  30,032 
Monthly  27,655  28,379  28,893  29,617  30,132 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,311  3,319  3,330  3,339  3,350 
Weekly  3,191  3,260  3,304  3,372  3,416 
Monthly  3,163  3,246  3,297  3,379  3,430 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  9,455  9,488  9,529  9,562  9,603 
Weekly  9,041  9,281  9,428  9,668  9,815 
Monthly  8,714  9,117  9,347  9,750  9,979 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 47.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 55.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 48.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 56.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 49.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 6 months up 14.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
14Pipe top
12Triangle, symmetrical
10Head-and-shoulders top
9Broadening top
9Triple top
8Scallop, ascending
7Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
5Dead-cat bounce
4Triangle, descending
4Double Bottom, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Computers and Peripherals2. Computers and Peripherals
3. Semiconductor3. Semiconductor
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Shoe
5. Shoe5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/7/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 3.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 9 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AFLBroadening top, right-angled and descending      12/27/201902/06/2020Insurance (Diversified)
AEOBroadening bottom      01/21/202002/06/2020Apparel
AMATBroadening top      12/19/201902/06/2020Semiconductor Cap Equip.
ATRBroadening wedge, ascending      11/22/201902/06/2020Packaging and Container
CXDiamond top      01/21/202002/06/2020Cement and Aggregates
CFDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202002/03/2020Chemical (Basic)
CTSHBroadening top      01/17/202002/03/2020IT Services
CMCOBroadening wedge, descending      01/02/202002/06/2020Machinery
REBroadening top      12/30/201902/06/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EZPWDead-cat bounce      02/04/202002/04/2020Financial Services
GPSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/27/202001/31/2020Apparel
HOVPipe top      01/21/202001/27/2020Homebuilding
KALUDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/23/202001/31/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
KHead-and-shoulders top      01/07/202002/04/2020Food Processing
MHOPipe top      01/21/202001/27/2020Homebuilding
MRTNPipe bottom      01/21/202001/27/2020Trucking/Transp. Leasing
MASDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/27/202001/31/2020Building Materials
MTRXDead-cat bounce      02/06/202002/06/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PCGFlag, high and tight      12/03/201902/05/2020Electric Utility (West)
SCCODouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202001/31/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
SLCADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/27/202002/04/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
VALPipe bottom      01/21/202001/27/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 01/30/2020 and 02/06/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
AFLAC Inc (AFL)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 439 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $52.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.12 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.30%
Volume: 3,480,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,541,537 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 12/27/2019 to 02/06/2020
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 534 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $14.68
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.67 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.14%
Volume: 2,184,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,309,748 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 01/21/2020 to 02/06/2020
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Applied Materials (AMAT)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 47 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $63.19
1 Month avg volatility: $1.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $67.23 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.52%
Volume: 4,862,000 shares. 3 month avg: 11,583,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/19/2019 to 02/06/2020
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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AptarGroup Inc (ATR)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 481 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $117.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $122.23 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.65%
Volume: 247,800 shares. 3 month avg: 241,254 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 11/22/2019 to 02/06/2020
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Cemex SA de CV (CX)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 53 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $4.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.52 or 7.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.85%
Volume: 3,276,800 shares. 3 month avg: 9,928,860 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 01/21/2020 to 02/06/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 556 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $42.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.00 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.50%
Volume: 2,801,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,754,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/28/2020 to 02/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (CTSH)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 228 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $71.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $73.69 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.16%
Volume: 7,781,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,250,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 01/17/2020 to 02/03/2020
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Columbus McKinnon (CMCO)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 341 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $37.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.92 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.65%
Volume: 90,500 shares. 3 month avg: 120,960 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 01/02/2020 to 02/06/2020
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Everest Re Group Ltd (RE)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 258 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $280.45
1 Month avg volatility: $3.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $291.31 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.30%
Volume: 374,300 shares. 3 month avg: 566,686 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/30/2019 to 02/06/2020
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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EZCorp Inc (EZPW)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 586 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $5.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.63 or 11.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -26.25%
Volume: 748,500 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/04/2020 to 02/04/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Gap Inc. (GPS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 409 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $18.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.38 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.58%
Volume: 3,829,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,662,882 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 01/31/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 1 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $24.51
1 Month avg volatility: $1.94. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.59 or 20.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.44%
Volume: 184,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/21/2020 to 01/27/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 200 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $107.31
1 Month avg volatility: $2.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $100.39 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.23%
Volume: 138,300 shares. 3 month avg: 141,669 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 01/23/2020 to 01/31/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Kellogg Co (K)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 413 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $63.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.25 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.24%
Volume: 7,660,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,593,774 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/07/2020 to 02/04/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 146 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $43.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $47.22 or 9.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.89%
Volume: 515,300 shares. 3 month avg: 256,088 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/21/2020 to 01/27/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 205 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $22.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.89 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.37%
Volume: 157,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/21/2020 to 01/27/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Masco Corp. (MAS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 110 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $49.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.91 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.21%
Volume: 2,092,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,351,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 01/31/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Matrix Service Co. (MTRX)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 577 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $12.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.65 or 21.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -43.84%
Volume: 1,018,400 shares. 3 month avg: 303,508 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/06/2020 to 02/06/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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PG and E (PCG)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 506 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $16.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.17 or 9.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 54.92%
Volume: 6,913,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,870,049 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 12/03/2019 to 02/05/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/25/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/24/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Southern Copper (SCCO)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 141 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $39.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.52 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.80%
Volume: 570,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/28/2020 to 01/31/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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U.S Silica Holdings Inc (SLCA)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 588 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $5.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.86 or 17.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.74%
Volume: 2,847,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/04/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/29/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/28/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Valaris Plc (VAL)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 248 out of 590
2/6/20 close: $5.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.49 or 15.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.90%
Volume: 2,978,300 shares. 3 month avg: 16,303,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/21/2020 to 01/27/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 2/6/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Bearish Signs

The index climbed by 0.4% or 40.71 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 606 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 383 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 223 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 185/327 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/106 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew two red parallel lines bordering price action today.

Two things: First, the channel slopes upward. That's bullish. It's clearly better than having a channel slope downward.

Second, the index is at the bottom of the channel. That's bearish. Why? Because it's closer to breaking out of the channel downward. However, the index could bounce off the bottom of the channel and zip higher. That's why some traders put their faith and their money into channels.

My feeling is that intraday price movement contains a lot of noise and the index often gaps at the open. So there really isn't a meaningful transition from day to day on this scale, meaning the implications of what you see one day could be moot from the opening bell.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  8,747.53    
 Weekly S2  9,067.54  320.01   
 Monthly S1  9,128.10  60.56   
 Weekly S1  9,288.11  160.01   
 Monthly Pivot  9,289.77  1.66   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Weekly Pivot  9,308.61  18.84   
 Daily S2  9,392.84  84.23   
 Daily S1  9,450.76  57.92   
 Low  9,454.93  4.17   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  9,500.77  45.84   
 Close  9,508.68  7.91   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  9,512.85  4.17   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  9,514.93  2.08   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  9,529.10  14.16   
 Weekly R1  9,529.18  0.08   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R2  9,549.68  20.50   
 Daily R1  9,570.77  21.09   
 Open  9,574.10  3.33   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  9,574.94  0.84   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  9,632.86  57.92   
 Monthly R1  9,670.34  37.48   
 Monthly R2  9,832.01  161.66   

Wednesday 2/5/20. Indicators Bullish!

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The vertical green bar on the right of the chart is a welcome sign. It's bullish.

On a day where the Dow surged 400 points, it comes as no surprise that the CPI would flip from bearish to bullish. The next question is, can the indicator hold its bullish stance?

That's harder to answer. Clearly the thin blue line at the bottom of the chart shows promise, with it spiking upward. As I've mentioned before, the signal can change for up to 7 days but after 3 days, it's usually a solid and believable signal.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 27% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 26%.
The fewest was 21% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 49% on 05/31/2019.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 489 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 24% on 08/23/2019.

Both lines were headed lower until today's move in the markets. That pulled upward the lines. The big surprise is that the two lines had tumbled low enough that even today's rally has kept them below what they were a week ago.

I would have expected a more robust response from the lines, but their weakness tells me the general market has been suffering during the week.

Both charts have bullish elements to them. This chart shows underlying weakness. Overall, I favor the bulls, though. I think fears of the virus are overblown and that the markets will simmer down and come to expect the implications on China woes as understandable.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/4/20. Slider Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.5% or 143.78 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 933 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 507 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 426 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 199/339 or 58.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/78 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the three rising valleys chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  27,443.60    
 Weekly S2  27,729.86  286.25   
 Monthly S1  27,921.71  191.85   
 Weekly S1  28,064.83  143.13   
 Daily S2  28,139.21  74.38   
 Daily S1  28,269.51  130.30   
 Open  28,319.65  50.14   
 Low  28,319.65  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Open.
 Close  28,399.81  80.16   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  28,438.35  38.54   
 Daily Pivot  28,449.95  11.60   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  28,475.02  25.07   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  28,504.54  29.52   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  28,511.69  7.15   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  28,580.25  68.56   
 High  28,630.39  50.14   
 Monthly Pivot  28,647.66  17.27   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R2  28,760.69  113.03   
 Weekly R1  28,839.51  78.82   
 Monthly R1  29,125.77  286.25   
 Weekly R2  29,279.22  153.45   
 Monthly R2  29,851.72  572.51   

Monday 2/3/20. 2020 Market Forecast Update!

Here's the updated 2020 forecast for January. I'm impressed with how accurate it has been...so far.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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