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As of 02/15/2019
  Industrials: 25,883 +443.86 +1.7%
  Transports: 10,568 +30.06 +0.3%
  Utilities: 739 +3.09 +0.4%
  Nasdaq: 7,472 +45.46 +0.6%
  S&P 500: 2,776 +29.87 +1.1%
YTD
+11.0%
+15.2%
+3.6%
+12.6%
+10.7%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 02/14/2019
26,000 or 24,600 by 03/01/2019
10,900 or 9,900 by 03/01/2019
755 or 725 by 03/01/2019
7,700 or 7,050 by 03/01/2019
2,825 or 2,650 by 03/01/2019

Written by and copyright © 2005-2019 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.

February 2019 Headlines


Archives


Friday 2/15/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 597 stocks searched, or 3.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 9 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AXDXTriangle, symmetrical      01/28/201902/14/2019Medical Services
DOXDiamond bottom      01/30/201902/13/2019IT Services
AIGBroadening top      01/18/201902/13/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ATODiamond top      01/23/201902/14/2019Natural Gas (Diversified)
COTYFlag, high and tight      12/26/201802/12/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
DVNScallop, ascending and inverted      12/26/201802/08/2019Natural Gas (Diversified)
BOOMRectangle bottom      11/15/201802/14/2019Metal Fabricating
FOERising wedge      01/04/201902/14/2019Chemical (Specialty)
HHSTriangle, symmetrical      11/26/201802/14/2019Advertising
IPGBroadening top      01/10/201902/14/2019Advertising
JCPRectangle top      01/08/201902/14/2019Retail Store
LZBDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/28/201902/11/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
NFLXTriangle, ascending      01/16/201902/14/2019Internet
PESTriangle, symmetrical      12/31/201802/14/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SCCOPipe top      01/28/201902/04/2019Metals and Mining (Div.)
SXIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/31/201902/08/2019Diversified Co.
TMKDiamond top      01/25/201902/13/2019Insurance (Diversified)
TZOOFlag, high and tight      12/27/201802/12/2019Internet

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/07/2019 and 02/14/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accelerate Diagnostics Inc (AXDX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 434 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $19.15
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.99 or 11.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 66.52%
Volume: 318,600 shares. 3 month avg: 533,922 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/28/2019 to 02/14/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Amdocs Limited (DOX)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 445 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $55.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.71 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.29%
Volume: 846,900 shares. 3 month avg: 895,243 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 01/30/2019 to 02/13/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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American International Group (AIG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 520 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $40.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $44.10 or 9.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.98%
Volume: 22,226,600 shares. 3 month avg: 5,185,998 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 01/18/2019 to 02/13/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Atmos Energy Corp (ATO)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 172 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $95.96
1 Month avg volatility: $1.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $100.75 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.49%
Volume: 31,583,900 shares. 3 month avg: 444,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 01/23/2019 to 02/14/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Coty (COTY)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 296 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $11.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.23 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 68.90%
Volume: 11,310,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,764,371 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 12/26/2018 to 02/12/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/07/2018. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/08/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Devon Energy Corp. (DVN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 561 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $27.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.20 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.25%
Volume: 5,740,400 shares. 3 month avg: 4,704,349 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 12/26/2018 to 02/08/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 468 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $34.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.36 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.08%
Volume: 50,500 shares. 3 month avg: 60,208 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 11/15/2018 to 02/14/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Ferro Corp (FOE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 506 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $16.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.07 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.84%
Volume: 270,900 shares. 3 month avg: 594,032 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/04/2019 to 02/14/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Harte-Hanks Inc (HHS)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 587 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $3.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.36 or 25.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 29.75%
Volume: 25,300 shares. 3 month avg: 98,162 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/26/2018 to 02/14/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 159 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $23.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.23 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.63%
Volume: 4,851,200 shares. 3 month avg: 6,516,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 01/10/2019 to 02/14/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

JC Penney Company Inc (JCP)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 575 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $1.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.17 or 15.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 32.69%
Volume: 6,552,300 shares. 3 month avg: 17,298,666 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 01/08/2019 to 02/14/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 268 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $30.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.01 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.21%
Volume: 239,500 shares. 3 month avg: 437,505 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 01/28/2019 to 02/11/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Netflix, Inc (NFLX)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 90 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $359.07
1 Month avg volatility: $10.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $326.79 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 34.15%
Volume: 9,279,800 shares. 3 month avg: 6,844,629 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 01/16/2019 to 02/14/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Pioneer Energy Services (PES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 576 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $1.68
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.40 or 16.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 36.59%
Volume: 411,700 shares. 3 month avg: 605,192 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/31/2018 to 02/14/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Southern Copper (SCCO)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 532 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $31.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.46 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.18%
Volume: 1,216,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/28/2019 to 02/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Standex International Corp (SXI)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 549 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $77.94
1 Month avg volatility: $2.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.65 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.02%
Volume: 69,700 shares. 3 month avg: 37,109 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/31/2019 to 02/08/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/29/2018. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/29/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Torchmark Corp (TMK)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 343 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $81.83
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $85.00 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.79%
Volume: 463,000 shares. 3 month avg: 431,386 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 01/25/2019 to 02/13/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 33 out of 591
2/14/19 close: $15.99
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.80 or 13.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 62.67%
Volume: 115,200 shares. 3 month avg: 22,411 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 12/27/2018 to 02/12/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/24/2018. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/24/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Thursday 2/14/19. Potential Double Top in Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.1% or 5.76 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 690 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 382 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 308 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 159/289 or 55.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 49/98 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

AB shows a potential double top chart pattern. It will confirm as a valid one when the index closes below the horizontal red line (C). I drew that line from the lowest valley between the two peaks.

Notice, though, that the index is sitting atop support. I show that with the two cyan lines, with C nestled comfortably between the two. Thus, even if the index drops, there should be plenty of support to keep the decline small.

Having said that, world events will impact that assessment. (Meaning anything can happen).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,271.93    
 Monthly S1  6,846.16  574.22   
 Monthly Pivot  7,128.46  282.31   
 Weekly S2  7,166.47  38.00   
 Weekly S1  7,293.42  126.96   
 Weekly Pivot  7,352.10  58.67   
 Daily S2  7,384.14  32.04   
 Daily S1  7,402.26  18.12   
 Low  7,413.84  11.58   
 Close  7,420.38  6.54   
 Daily Pivot  7,431.96  11.58   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,432.11  0.15   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  7,437.46  5.35   
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,437.75  0.29   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,443.39  5.64   
 Daily R1  7,450.08  6.69   
 High  7,461.66  11.58   
 Weekly R1  7,479.05  17.39   
 Daily R2  7,479.78  0.73   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  7,537.73  57.95   
 Monthly R1  7,702.69  164.96   
 Monthly R2  7,984.99  282.31   

Wednesday 2/13/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

If you look closely at the CPI line near the bottom of the chart, it trends lower even as the index climbs. That's bearish divergence. I show it with the orange lines.

Today, the indicator is back up against the ceiling (or nearly so).

I still think the index is going to retrace. It's in the middle of resistance. It may coast higher some, but I think a retrace is coming and it won't be pretty when it arrives.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 44% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 46%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 496 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

The red line, the more sensitive of the two, showed improvement from a week ago. The blue line was flat over the same period.

I don't see anything in this chart that would indicate an end to the upward move in the index.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/12/19. Head-and-Shoulders Bottom in Intraday Dow

The index dropped by -0.2% or -53.22 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1199 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 603 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 596 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 181/300 or 60.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 36/71 or 50.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

When I first glanced at the pic, I saw what appeared to be a head-and-shoulders bottom on the chart. That's LS (left shoulder, Head, and RS (guess!).

Traditionally, when price closes above the green neckline, it signals a valid chart pattern and an entry. But there's a problem.

The neckline slopes upward. If the line slopes steeply enough, you may never receive an entry signal.

So, I use a close above the red line. I drew that line horizontally from the right armpit. That's what I use when the index slopes upward, as in this case.

Don't get too excited. The index hasn't closed above the red line, so you're just looking at squiggles on the chart and not a bullish chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  21,918.24    
 Monthly S1  23,485.67  1,567.44   
 Monthly Pivot  24,462.36  976.68   
 Weekly S2  24,569.06  106.71   
 Weekly S1  24,811.09  242.02   
 Daily S2  24,898.67  87.58   
 Daily S1  24,975.89  77.22   
 Low  25,009.10  33.21   
 Close  25,053.11  44.01   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  25,080.78  27.67   
 Daily Pivot  25,086.32  5.54   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  25,102.93  16.61   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  25,125.06  22.14   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  25,125.07  0.01   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  25,142.81  17.74   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  25,163.54  20.73   
 High  25,196.75  33.21   
 Daily R2  25,273.97  77.22   
 Weekly R1  25,367.09  93.12   
 Weekly R2  25,681.06  313.98   
 Monthly R1  26,029.79  348.73   
 Monthly R2  27,006.48  976.68   

Monday 2/11/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

A head-and-shoulders top appears as a nicely shaped pattern (LS=left shoulder, head, RS=right shoulder). When the index closes below the red neckline, it confirms the pattern as a valid one.

Unfortunately, the move after pattern completed didn't amount to much. If you'd placed a stop loss order above the top of the pattern, you would have been stopped out for loss.

Pattern AB is a double bottom which confirms when the index closes above the blue line, C. The rise so far has not met the height of the pattern (which is what we in the biz call the measure rule). But there's still time for the index to rise higher.

Maybe that's what we'll see in the coming week.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 175.48 points.
Tuesday: Up 172.15 points.
Wednesday: Down 21.22 points.
Thursday: Down 220.77 points.
Friday: Down 63.2 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 42.44 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 34.33 points or 0.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 1.35 points or 0.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.3% down from the high of 25,439.04 on 02/06/2019.
     10.9% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     1.5% down from the high of 7,410.77 on 02/06/2019.
     13.0% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     1.1% down from the high of 2,738.98 on 02/05/2019.
     10.8% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/08/2019, the CPI had:

21 bearish patterns,
23 bullish patterns,
290 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 52.3%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,809  24,957  25,032  25,181  25,255 
Weekly  24,587  24,847  25,143  25,403  25,699 
Monthly  21,936  23,521  24,480  26,065  27,024 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,673  2,690  2,699  2,717  2,726 
Weekly  2,652  2,680  2,710  2,737  2,767 
Monthly  2,376  2,542  2,640  2,806  2,905 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,200  7,249  7,274  7,323  7,349 
Weekly  7,126  7,212  7,311  7,398  7,497 
Monthly  6,231  6,765  7,088  7,621  7,944 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 7 weeks up 6.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months up 42.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 35.4%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 46.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 7 weeks up 4.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months up 38.7%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
9Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
8Triangle, symmetrical
6Head-and-shoulders bottom
5Diamond top
5Flag, high and tight
4Dead-cat bounce
3Rising wedge
3Broadening top
3Triple top
2Big W

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Precision Instrument1. Precision Instrument
2. Electric Utility (East)2. Shoe
3. Computer Software and Svcs3. Electric Utility (Central)
4. Short ETFs4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Electric Utility (Central)5. Electric Utility (East)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/8/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 598 stocks searched, or 2.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 8 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ALKSTriple top      01/17/201902/06/2019Drug
APCBroadening top      01/09/201902/05/2019Petroleum (Producing)
AVPFlag, high and tight      12/26/201802/04/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
CLSDead-cat bounce      02/01/201902/01/2019Electronics
CXHead-and-shoulders top      01/09/201902/05/2019Cement and Aggregates
CFTriangle, symmetrical      01/03/201902/06/2019Chemical (Basic)
BOOMRectangle bottom      11/15/201802/07/2019Metal Fabricating
IDXXDiamond top      01/25/201902/07/2019Drug
IPGBroadening top      01/10/201902/07/2019Advertising
ISRGDiamond top      01/11/201902/05/2019Medical Supplies
KDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/18/201902/06/2019Food Processing
MTRXDead-cat bounce      02/07/201902/07/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NWPXPipe bottom      01/22/201901/28/2019Building Materials
SWNHorn top      01/14/201901/28/2019Natural Gas (Diversified)
TZOOFlag, high and tight      12/27/201802/07/2019Internet

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 01/31/2019 and 02/07/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Alkermes (ALKS)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 538 out of 592
2/7/19 close: $31.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.86 or 12.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.29%
Volume: 1,194,500 shares. 3 month avg: 949,792 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 01/17/2019 to 02/06/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 554 out of 592
2/7/19 close: $42.60
1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.16 or 13.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.83%
Volume: 11,224,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,746,292 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 01/09/2019 to 02/05/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Avon Products (AVP)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 9 out of 592
2/7/19 close: $2.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.01 or 15.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 55.92%
Volume: 9,260,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,898,403 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 12/26/2018 to 02/04/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Celestica Inc (CLS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 548 out of 592
2/7/19 close: $8.23
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.91 or 8.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.16%
Volume: 751,300 shares. 3 month avg: 557,234 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/01/2019 to 02/01/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Cemex SA de CV (CX)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 550 out of 592
2/7/19 close: $4.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.65 or 14.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.49%
Volume: 15,007,300 shares. 3 month avg: 9,928,860 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/09/2019 to 02/05/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 420 out of 592
2/7/19 close: $41.31
1 Month avg volatility: $1.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.09 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.06%
Volume: 3,543,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,754,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/03/2019 to 02/06/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 422 out of 592
2/7/19 close: $35.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.28 or 8.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.14%
Volume: 49,100 shares. 3 month avg: 60,208 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 11/15/2018 to 02/07/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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IDEXX Laboratories, Inc (IDXX)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 429 out of 592
2/7/19 close: $206.81
1 Month avg volatility: $4.61. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $216.87 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.18%
Volume: 432,800 shares. 3 month avg: 512,494 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 01/25/2019 to 02/07/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 202 out of 592
2/7/19 close: $21.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.97 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.11%
Volume: 7,006,400 shares. 3 month avg: 6,516,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 01/10/2019 to 02/07/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 212 out of 592
2/7/19 close: $509.36
1 Month avg volatility: $13.68. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $547.37 or 7.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.36%
Volume: 687,500 shares. 3 month avg: 734,668 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 01/11/2019 to 02/05/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Kellogg Co (K)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 491 out of 592
2/7/19 close: $55.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.64 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.05%
Volume: 8,770,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,593,774 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 01/18/2019 to 02/06/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Matrix Service Co. (MTRX)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 233 out of 592
2/7/19 close: $19.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.15 or 18.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.58%
Volume: 438,100 shares. 3 month avg: 303,508 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/07/2019 to 02/07/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Northwest Pipe Co (NWPX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 14 out of 592
2/7/19 close: $24.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.27 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.42%
Volume: 37,600 shares. 3 month avg: 31,645 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/22/2019 to 01/28/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 543 out of 592
2/7/19 close: $3.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.36 or 17.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.09%
Volume: 31,915,100 shares. 3 month avg: 16,683,949 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 01/14/2019 to 01/28/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 7%.
Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 31 out of 592
2/7/19 close: $15.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.56 or 19.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 58.49%
Volume: 200,600 shares. 3 month avg: 22,411 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 12/27/2018 to 02/07/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/24/2018. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/24/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Thursday 2/7/19. Channel Formed Intraday: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.4% or -26.8 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 428 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 218 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 210 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 159/288 or 55.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 49/98 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At AB (bottom of pic, on the left), a double bottom appears which confirms. The index makes a strong push higher, easily fulfilling the measure rule for the chart pattern.

Today (Wednesday), the index formed a down-sloping channel, with the index ending the session near the top of the channel.

It's possible that the index will push through the top trendline and soar. However, it could also bounce off that trendline and drop back down.

The pre-market-open futures will give a good indication of which alternative it happen.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,199.19    
 Monthly S1  6,787.23  588.05   
 Weekly S2  6,938.31  151.07   
 Monthly Pivot  7,045.18  106.87   
 Weekly S1  7,156.79  111.62   
 Weekly Pivot  7,229.96  73.16   
 Daily S2  7,313.54  83.58   
 Daily S1  7,344.41  30.87   
 Low  7,346.72  2.31   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,371.19  24.47   
 Close  7,375.28  4.09   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  7,377.59  2.31   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,378.75  1.16   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,386.30  7.56   
 Open  7,400.44  14.14   
 Daily R1  7,408.46  8.02   
 High  7,410.77  2.31   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  7,441.64  30.87   
 Weekly R1  7,448.44  6.80   
 Weekly R2  7,521.61  73.16   
 Monthly R1  7,633.22  111.62   
 Monthly R2  7,891.17  257.94   

Wednesday 2/6/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator, as the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart shows, has been bumping its head on the ceiling for over a month now.

That corresponds from the lift-off of the index from the December low.

Notice the brief dip in the indicator (late January) when the index moved sideways. I thought a retrace would start then, but it didn't. The index moved sideways for about a week then has been moving higher since.

Such a high reading suggests there's nowhere to go but down. But that's been true for a month now and the index has continued to rise (for the most part).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 46% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 56%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 496 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 24%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines continue to show improvement as the above numbers tell. The red line has made a significant recovery from a week ago, up ten percentage points. It used to be that a big move was two points.

The lines are bullish, but maybe that's bad news, too. The index can't continue rising forever.

Still, I think it has a few more days of moving up before it drops.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/5/19. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.7% or 175.48 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 669 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 369 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 300 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 180/299 or 60.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 36/71 or 50.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale, but only 5 days instead of the usual 10.

Why? Because I wanted to focus on the move circled in green.

I drew a red line across the top of a pattern that looks like a Big W except the inbound trend is upward, not downward. So that's unusual.

Pattern AB forms a small double bottom which results in a huge gain.

At day's end, the index spiked higher in the closing minutes. Wow. Nice move. I haven't checked for the reason for the move, but there has to be one. The question which comes to mind is this: What happens next?

Sigh. Wish I had the answer. My guess is the index will continue to climb tomorrow, not because of the above probabilities say so, but because the pattern resembles a busted double top. My feeling about busted patterns is that they lead to big gains. Not all the time, mind you, because that would mean making money would be too easy.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  21,802.24    
 Monthly S1  23,520.80  1,718.57   
 Weekly S2  24,049.61  528.81   
 Monthly Pivot  24,356.98  307.37   
 Weekly S1  24,644.49  287.51   
 Daily S2  24,890.08  245.59   
 Weekly Pivot  24,918.82  28.74   
 Low  24,977.67  58.85   
 Open  25,062.12  84.45   
 Daily S1  25,064.72  2.60   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  25,077.85  13.12   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  25,108.79  30.94   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  25,139.73  30.95   
 Daily Pivot  25,152.32  12.58   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  25,239.37  87.05   
 High  25,239.91  0.54   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  25,326.96  87.05   
 Daily R2  25,414.56  87.59   
 Weekly R1  25,513.70  99.14   
 Weekly R2  25,788.03  274.33   
 Monthly R1  26,075.54  287.51   
 Monthly R2  26,911.72  836.17   

Monday 2/4/19. Market Monday: MMU Throwback in S&P

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

Shown is what I expect the index to do over the coming weeks.

I expect the index to power higher, reaching A. Point A will be met by overhead resistance setup by the green trendline. That resistance will push the index lower. This might occur in concert with Trump shutting down the government or declaring an emergency. On this scale, though, I expect a downturn to happen later this week and not in mid February.

The index will return to the corrective phase of a measured move up. That is the index dropping to B, coinciding with the meager retrace (circled) I expected but which didn't really materialize.

After reaching bottom at B, look for the index to recover. I show that recovery as point C, but don't think that the index will rise that far. I was more concerned with direction than extent.

Lots of things can change this picture, so keep that in mind. Plus, I'm frequently wrong.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 208.98 points.
Tuesday: Up 51.74 points.
Wednesday: Up 434.9 points.
Thursday: Down 15.19 points.
Friday: Up 64.22 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 326.69 points or 1.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 99.01 points or 1.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 41.77 points or 1.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.5% down from the high of 25,193.15 on 02/01/2019.
     10.7% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.5% down from the high of 7,303.12 on 01/31/2019.
     12.5% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.4% down from the high of 2,716.66 on 02/01/2019.
     10.7% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/01/2019, the CPI had:

6 bearish patterns,
40 bullish patterns,
264 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 87.0%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,869  24,967  25,080  25,177  25,291 
Weekly  23,991  24,528  24,860  25,397  25,730 
Monthly  21,744  23,404  24,298  25,959  26,853 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,687  2,697  2,707  2,717  2,726 
Weekly  2,590  2,648  2,682  2,741  2,775 
Monthly  2,350  2,528  2,622  2,801  2,895 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,213  7,238  7,269  7,295  7,326 
Weekly  6,901  7,083  7,193  7,374  7,484 
Monthly  6,162  6,713  7,008  7,559  7,854 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 6 weeks up 8.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months up 42.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 47.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 46.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 6 weeks up 6.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 27.2%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
61Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
14Head-and-shoulders bottom
7Triangle, symmetrical
5Pipe bottom
5Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
4Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
3Flag, high and tight
3Dead-cat bounce
3Rising wedge
3Triple bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Precision Instrument1. Precision Instrument
2. Shoe2. Short ETFs
3. Electric Utility (Central)3. Electric Utility (Central)
4. Computer Software and Svcs4. Electric Utility (East)
5. Electric Utility (East)5. Household Products

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/1/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 598 stocks searched, or 2.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AXDXFlag, high and tight      12/21/201801/28/2019Medical Services
ALKDiamond top      01/16/201901/31/2019Air Transport
ADPRising wedge      12/31/201801/29/2019IT Services
ETFCPipe top      01/14/201901/22/2019Securities Brokerage
GMEDead-cat bounce      01/28/201901/29/2019Retail (Special Lines)
GPRORectangle top      01/11/201901/31/2019Electronics
GGGBroadening top      01/09/201901/29/2019Machinery
THGDiamond bottom      11/19/201801/25/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HURCTriangle, symmetrical      12/28/201801/30/2019Machinery
MDCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/22/201901/29/2019Homebuilding
MDCATriangle, symmetrical      11/28/201801/29/2019Advertising
MSFTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/18/201901/25/2019Computer Software and Svcs
MSTriangle, symmetrical      01/17/201901/31/2019Securities Brokerage
TUESBig W      12/31/201801/29/2019Retail Store

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 01/24/2019 and 01/31/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accelerate Diagnostics Inc (AXDX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 428 out of 592
1/31/19 close: $18.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.61 or 14.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 58.35%
Volume: 410,500 shares. 3 month avg: 533,922 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 12/21/2018 to 01/28/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 127 out of 592
1/31/19 close: $63.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.31 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.09%
Volume: 1,649,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,966,126 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 01/16/2019 to 01/31/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 117 out of 592
1/31/19 close: $139.84
1 Month avg volatility: $2.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $145.94 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.65%
Volume: 5,774,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,140,888 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 12/31/2018 to 01/29/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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E-Trade Financial Corp (ETFC)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 506 out of 592
1/31/19 close: $46.66
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.03 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.34%
Volume: 5,114,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,308,982 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/14/2019 to 01/22/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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GameStop Corp (GME)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 507 out of 592
1/31/19 close: $11.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.82 or 13.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -10.14%
Volume: 6,049,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,063,175 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 01/28/2019 to 01/29/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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GoPro (GPRO)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 481 out of 592
1/31/19 close: $4.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.46 or 9.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.27%
Volume: 3,137,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,624,629 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 01/11/2019 to 01/31/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/02/2018. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/01/2019 and a 38% chance by 05/03/2019.
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Graco Incorporated (GGG)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 283 out of 592
1/31/19 close: $43.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.42 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.54%
Volume: 575,900 shares. 3 month avg: 251,886 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 01/09/2019 to 01/29/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Hanover Insurance Group, The (THG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 338 out of 592
1/31/19 close: $114.04
1 Month avg volatility: $2.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $102.37 or 10.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.34%
Volume: 623,000 shares. 3 month avg: 201,215 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 11/19/2018 to 01/25/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Hurco Companies Inc. (HURC)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 435 out of 592
1/31/19 close: $38.35
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.35 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.42%
Volume: 10,600 shares. 3 month avg: 26,271 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/28/2018 to 01/30/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MDC Holdings Inc. (MDC)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 81 out of 592
1/31/19 close: $32.93
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.24 or 14.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.15%
Volume: 817,500 shares. 3 month avg: 498,709 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/22/2019 to 01/29/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MDC Pateners Inc (MDCA)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 570 out of 592
1/31/19 close: $2.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.63 or 11.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.79%
Volume: 182,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/28/2018 to 01/29/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 221 out of 592
1/31/19 close: $104.43
1 Month avg volatility: $2.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $109.42 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.82%
Volume: 55,442,200 shares. 3 month avg: 21,460,729 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/18/2019 to 01/25/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Morgan Stanley (MS)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 438 out of 592
1/31/19 close: $42.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.08 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.68%
Volume: 11,163,400 shares. 3 month avg: 7,779,832 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/17/2019 to 01/31/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Tuesday Morning Corp (TUES)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 554 out of 592
1/31/19 close: $1.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.74 or 12.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.47%
Volume: 3,205,100 shares. 3 month avg: 391,566 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Big W reversal pattern from 12/31/2018 to 01/29/2019
Breakout is upward 71% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 32% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 42% of the time.

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Written by and copyright © 2005-2019 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.