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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Chart Patterns: After the Buy
Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition book.
Trading Basics: Evolution of a Trader book.
Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Swing and Day Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Visual Guide to Chart Patterns book.
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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
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Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 04/24/2018
24,024 -424.56 -1.7%
10,400 -221.05 -2.1%
695 4.07 0.6%
7,007 -121.25 -1.7%
2,635 -35.73 -1.3%
YTD
-2.8%
-2.0%
-3.9%
1.5%
-1.5%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 04/13/2018
25,300 or 23,400 by 05/01/2018
10,800 or 9,800 by 05/01/2018
670 or 710 by 05/01/2018
7,400 or 6,800 by 05/01/2018
2,750 or 2,600 by 05/01/2018

Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

February 2018 Headlines


Archives


Wednesday 2/28/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

With today's (Tuesday's) large drop in the Dow, down 300 points, the CPI has turned bearish. The red vertical bar on the far right of the chart shows that.

Look at how the thin indicator blue line near the bottom of the chart has dived. Wow. I'm not surprised because yesterday's rise was a thin one (comparatively few participated in the strength of the rally).

This could be the start of a lasting retrace...or just a fluke.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 22% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 23%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 31% on 02/08/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 515 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

Both lines show improvement over the prior week's reading.

The chart shows a steady recovery of the two lines after they bottomed in early February. Maybe they didn't get today's message of a 300 point drop. Hmm.

I suppose it's possible that both lines are showing underlying market strength, but I have my doubts. I believe the CPI is the most sensitive of the three lines on the two charts.

And that means weakness ahead.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/27/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 1.6% or 399.28 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 149 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 73 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 76 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 51.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 155/261 or 59.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 33/67 or 49.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The red curve is a rounded bottom chart pattern. Some might think it's a cup with handle except the handle is missing.

Underneath that is a head-and-shoulders bottom. The left shoulder is LS, head, and RS is the right shoulder. Yes, that's a clever naming convention.

The head-and-shoulders confirms as a valid pattern when the index closes above the neckline, shown here in blue.

As the chart shows, the index has moved up since breaking out of both patterns.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  21,972.34    
 Monthly S1  23,840.80  1,868.47   
 Weekly S2  24,751.12  910.31   
 Monthly Pivot  25,228.76  477.64   
 Weekly S1  25,230.19  1.44   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  25,272.07  41.87   
 Daily S2  25,279.30  7.24   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  25,398.56  119.26   
 Open  25,403.35  4.79   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  25,494.29  90.94   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  25,526.24  31.95   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  25,565.68  39.44   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  25,605.12  39.44   
 Daily Pivot  25,613.54  8.42   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  25,709.27  95.73   
 High  25,732.80  23.53   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  25,751.14  18.34   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R2  25,793.02  41.88   
 Daily R1  25,828.53  35.51   
 Daily R2  25,947.78  119.26   
 Monthly R1  27,097.22  1,149.44   
 Monthly R2  28,485.18  1,387.95   

Monday 2/26/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Dow Utility average on the daily scale.

I drew a trendline connecting the peaks from A to B and extended the line down toward C. I drew this line carefully.

Notice that the trendline still remains above the index at C. And that suggests overhead resistance awaits.

If I were trading this as a stock, I'd look elsewhere for a more promising position. Why?

Because in the past when I've traded against overhead resistance setup by a down-sloping trendline (not as steep as this one, however), the stock hit the line and turned. Thus, your profits are cut short by that resistance.

I'd rather find a stock where there isn't trendline resistance nearby.

Let me also say that just because there is overhead resistance is no guarantee that the average will turn down. It might or might not.

$ $ $

Want to check if your property is in the flood plain? See: https://msc.fema.gov/portal

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 254.63 points.
Wednesday: Down 166.97 points.
Thursday: Up 164.7 points.
Friday: Up 347.51 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 90.61 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 97.92 points or 1.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 15.08 points or 0.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.9% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     8.3% up from the low of 23,360.29 on 02/09/2018.
Nasdaq
     2.2% down from the high of 7,505.77 on 01/26/2018.
     10.7% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     4.4% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     8.5% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/23/2018, the CPI had:

1 bearish patterns,
69 bullish patterns,
471 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 98.6%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,932  25,121  25,218  25,406  25,503 
Weekly  24,618  24,964  25,139  25,485  25,660 
Monthly  21,839  23,575  25,096  26,831  28,352 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,702  2,725  2,736  2,759  2,770 
Weekly  2,681  2,714  2,731  2,764  2,781 
Monthly  2,377  2,562  2,718  2,903  3,058 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,197  7,267  7,303  7,373  7,408 
Weekly  7,146  7,242  7,290  7,386  7,434 
Monthly  6,283  6,810  7,158  7,685  8,033 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 32.8%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 21.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 33.4%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 21.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 34.9%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 25.8%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
38Double Top, Adam and Adam
37Pipe top
19Pipe bottom
15Head-and-shoulders top
11Triangle, symmetrical
9Broadening top
9Triple top
8Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
6Triangle, ascending
6Double Top, Eve and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

Something broke in my program, so no table is available.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/23/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 8 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 619 stocks searched, or 1.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 14 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 19 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AMZNPipe bottom      02/05/201802/12/2018Internet
AEOPipe bottom      02/05/201802/12/2018Apparel
CFPipe bottom      02/05/201802/12/2018Chemical (Basic)
CVGPipe bottom      01/10/201802/15/2018Computer Software and Svcs
DUKTriangle, symmetrical      02/08/201802/22/2018Electric Utility (East)
EIGIPipe bottom      02/05/201802/12/2018E-Commerce
EZPWTriangle, symmetrical      02/01/201802/20/2018Financial Services
FICOPipe bottom      02/05/201802/12/2018IT Services
GXPBroadening wedge, descending      12/21/201702/16/2018Electric Utility (Central)
HSCHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/06/201802/21/2018Diversified Co.
INCYDiamond bottom      02/05/201802/21/2018Drug
INTUPipe bottom      02/05/201802/12/2018Computer Software and Svcs
KBroadening top      12/05/201702/20/2018Food Processing
MOSPipe bottom      02/05/201802/12/2018Chemical (Diversified)
RHIPipe bottom      02/05/201802/12/2018Human Resources
CRMPipe bottom      02/05/201802/12/2018E-Commerce
SSYSPipe bottom      02/05/201802/12/2018Electronics
TDOCPipe bottom      02/05/201802/12/2018Healthcare Information
TUESRectangle top      09/28/201702/22/2018Retail Store
WEXPipe bottom      02/05/201802/12/2018Information Services
WGLRectangle top      06/16/201702/20/2018Natural Gas (Distributor)
SMHPipe bottom      02/05/201802/12/2018Semiconductor

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/15/2018 and 02/22/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 21 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $1,485.34
1 Month avg volatility: $51.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1,372.41 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.01%
Volume: 4,792,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,583,803 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 02/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 19 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $18.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.35 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.32%
Volume: 3,385,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,309,748 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 02/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 27 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $42.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.63 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.01%
Volume: 2,980,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,754,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 02/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Convergys Corporation (CVG)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 397 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $24.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.50 or 11.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.15%
Volume: 2,650,700 shares. 3 month avg: 888,571 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/10/2018 to 02/15/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Duke Energy Corp (DUK)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 553 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $75.54
1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.15 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.19%
Volume: 3,103,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,571,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/08/2018 to 02/22/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Endurance International Group Holdings (EIGI)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 438 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $7.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.03 or 9.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.74%
Volume: 302,100 shares. 3 month avg: 656,929 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 02/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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EZCorp Inc (EZPW)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 28 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $13.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.16 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.38%
Volume: 282,500 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/01/2018 to 02/20/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Fair Isaac Corp (FICO)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 135 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $172.75
1 Month avg volatility: $4.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $163.05 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.76%
Volume: 155,700 shares. 3 month avg: 162,437 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 02/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Great Plains Energy (GXP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 494 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $29.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.93 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.54%
Volume: 1,204,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,439,260 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 12/21/2017 to 02/16/2018
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 185 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $19.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.53 or 15.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.09%
Volume: 1,342,100 shares. 3 month avg: 523,465 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 02/06/2018 to 02/21/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Incyte Corp. (INCY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 600 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $85.19
1 Month avg volatility: $2.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $79.35 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.05%
Volume: 1,313,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,771,434 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 02/21/2018
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Intuit Inc (INTU)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 109 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $172.10
1 Month avg volatility: $4.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $162.68 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.08%
Volume: 2,036,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,303,997 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 02/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Kellogg Co (K)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 467 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $68.26
1 Month avg volatility: $1.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $72.72 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.41%
Volume: 1,820,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,593,774 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/05/2017 to 02/20/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Mosaic Co (MOS)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 57 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $27.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.48 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.98%
Volume: 5,782,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,715,435 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 02/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Robert Half International (RHI)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 85 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $57.33
1 Month avg volatility: $1.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.95 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.22%
Volume: 1,823,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,012,069 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 02/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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salesforce com (CRM)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 159 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $113.00
1 Month avg volatility: $2.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $107.07 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.54%
Volume: 4,763,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,417,257 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 02/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Stratasys Ltd (SSYS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 477 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $21.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.61 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.46%
Volume: 363,500 shares. 3 month avg: 835,520 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 02/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Teladoc, Inc (TDOC)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 76 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $38.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.08 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.68%
Volume: 1,269,900 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 02/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Tuesday Morning Corp (TUES)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 11 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $3.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.61 or 13.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.09%
Volume: 74,700 shares. 3 month avg: 391,566 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 09/28/2017 to 02/22/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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WEX Inc (WEX)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 30 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $154.04
1 Month avg volatility: $4.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $143.75 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.07%
Volume: 384,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 02/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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WGL Holdings (WGL)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 451 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $83.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $80.82 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.92%
Volume: 204,100 shares. 3 month avg: 264,052 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 06/16/2017 to 02/20/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 186 out of 611
2/22/18 close: $103.34
1 Month avg volatility: $2.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $98.05 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.65%
Volume: 4,479,200 shares. 3 month avg: 5,608,554 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/05/2018 to 02/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 2/22/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.2% or -16.08 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 491 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 256 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 235 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 142/253 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 45/87 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index bumped up against overhead resistance but broke though it at A. That's the good news.

The bad news is that the index returned to the rectangle. The upward breakout at A and reversal at B, suggests the potential for a busted pattern.

That won't happen unless the index closes below the bottom red line. If it does, then I would expect an extended (large) decline.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,243.12    
 Weekly S2  6,710.16  467.03   
 Monthly S1  6,730.68  20.52   
 Weekly S1  6,964.19  233.52   
 Monthly Pivot  7,118.22  154.03   
 Weekly Pivot  7,133.73  15.50   
 Daily S2  7,137.80  4.07   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S1  7,178.01  40.22   
 Low  7,218.11  40.10   
 Close  7,218.23  0.12   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  7,258.33  40.10   
 Open  7,258.48  0.15   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,264.15  5.67   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,278.38  14.22   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,292.60  14.22   
 Daily R1  7,298.54  5.95   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  7,338.64  40.10   
 Daily R2  7,378.86  40.22   
 Weekly R1  7,387.76  8.91   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  7,557.30  169.53   
 Monthly R1  7,605.78  48.48   
 Monthly R2  7,993.32  387.55   

Wednesday 2/21/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI shows a green vertical bar on the far right of the chart. That means it's bullish.

If you look at the blue CPI line under the green bar, you'll see that it's curving downward. That's typical. Once the indicator hits 100, there's nowhere to go but down. I suppose it could move sideways, but that would take a market that's moving up at a good clip to sustain a 100 or near 100 reading.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Friday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 29%.
The fewest was 15% on 02/21/2017.
And the most was 31% on 02/08/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 515 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

Both lines show improvement this week. Rather, they show very good improvement.

As the above text explains the red line was 31% (the percentage of stocks in my database down 20% from their highs) twelve days ago and it's now 23%. Nice.

So both charts are bullish. If today's down move is sustained, look for both charts to turn bearish. The CPI will show it first, followed by the red line and in last place will be the blue line.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/16/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 8 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 619 stocks searched, or 1.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
COTYPipe bottom      01/29/201802/05/2018Toiletries/Cosmetics
DOVHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/06/201802/14/2018Machinery
FDSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/06/201802/09/2018Information Services
IBKRBroadening top      01/10/201802/09/2018Securities Brokerage
MCODouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/06/201802/09/2018Information Services
SEICScallop, descending and inverted      01/03/201802/09/2018IT Services
TUESRectangle top      09/28/201702/15/2018Retail Store
WGLRectangle top      06/16/201702/15/2018Natural Gas (Distributor)
DBATriangle, ascending      01/02/201802/14/2018Investment Co. (Domestic)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/08/2018 and 02/15/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Coty (COTY)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 320 out of 611
2/15/18 close: $21.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.92 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.25%
Volume: 5,027,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,764,371 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is , and best sell day (most up closes) is .
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/29/2018 to 02/05/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Dover Corp (DOV)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 186 out of 611
2/15/18 close: $101.59
1 Month avg volatility: $2.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $94.56 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.59%
Volume: 1,018,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,038,811 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 02/06/2018 to 02/14/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 129 out of 611
2/15/18 close: $201.81
1 Month avg volatility: $4.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $188.22 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.69%
Volume: 232,800 shares. 3 month avg: 411,949 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/06/2018 to 02/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 9 out of 611
2/15/18 close: $67.88
1 Month avg volatility: $2.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $72.48 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.64%
Volume: 661,500 shares. 3 month avg: 546,643 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 01/10/2018 to 02/09/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Moodys Corp (MCO)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 103 out of 611
2/15/18 close: $166.99
1 Month avg volatility: $4.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $154.48 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.13%
Volume: 934,100 shares. 3 month avg: 714,397 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/06/2018 to 02/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SEI Investments Co (SEIC)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 85 out of 611
2/15/18 close: $73.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $78.57 or 7.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.17%
Volume: 548,400 shares. 3 month avg: 522,352 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, descending and inverted continuation pattern from 01/03/2018 to 02/09/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 38% of the time.

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Tuesday Morning Corp (TUES)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 5 out of 611
2/15/18 close: $3.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.59 or 16.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.73%
Volume: 155,300 shares. 3 month avg: 391,566 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 09/28/2017 to 02/15/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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WGL Holdings (WGL)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 437 out of 611
2/15/18 close: $84.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $82.45 or 2.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.86%
Volume: 188,200 shares. 3 month avg: 264,052 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 06/16/2017 to 02/15/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 418 out of 611
2/15/18 close: $19.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.71 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.97%
Volume: 1,660,100 shares. 3 month avg: 755,308 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 01/02/2018 to 02/14/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Thursday 2/15/18. Sector ETF Rotation

I released a new study on sector ETF rotation. You can read it here. Here's most of the conclusions from the article.

I performed two types of tests on sector ETF performance. The first determines if selecting the best performing, worst performing, or something in between gives the best future results of nine sector ETFs studied.

The second test checks if selecting sector ETFs should be done quarterly, semi-annually, or annually.

The answer comes in six parts, two for each holding period: Selecting the middle performer (rank 5 of 9) from 2000 to 2017 showed annual gains of 10.9%, but rotating the 4th best performing ETF did better after excluding the 2007-2009 bear market, that is, from 2010 to 2017. The annual gain was 16.34%.

Changing sector funds every six months worked best for rank 2 funds in the 2000-2017 period (10.12% gain), and selecting the worst performing fund during the 2010-2017 period gave the best future results of the three holding periods studied: 18.47% annually.

Finally, if you wish to change funds only once a year, the rank 7 funds worked best with annual gains of 12.86% from 2000 to 2017, the best of the three holding periods over the entire study period (2000 to 2017). The rank 3 funds did best during the bull market from 2010-2017 by making 14.66% annually.

In short, pick the worst performing fund every six months for the best annual performance in a bull market. Based on year end 2017 performance, select XLU. That's the utilities sector ETF. However, with interest rates destined to rise, picking this fund I think is a mistake. The second worst performing fund in the second half of 2017 was XLP. That's consumer staples.

For a better understanding of this, read the article.

-- Thomas Bulkowski


Wednesday 2/14/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

As the chart shows, the chart pattern indicator had exquisite timing in calling a downturn. The red bar on the far right shows this.

The indicator has been bearish ever since.

If you look at the blue indicator line near the bottom of the chart, you see it has moved sideways as if it's struggling to find footing.

Now look back in August where the indicator also struggled to find direction (brown circle). The indicator recovered and a bull signal happened a few weeks later. That behavior might occur this time.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 26% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 26%.
The fewest was 15% on 02/21/2017.
And the most was 31% on 02/08/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 515 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

Both lines show no change from a week ago. The red line, for example, dipped down but then recovered to end where it began, at 26% of stocks bearish (of those I follow).

The recent upward move from the pointed V-bottom, gives hope to a recovery in the coming days and weeks.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/13/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 1.7% or 410.37 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 142 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 77 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 65 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 154/260 or 59.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 33/67 or 49.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

A V-shaped bottom shown here outlined in red is an actual chart pattern.

Of course, trying to trade this beast is difficult. I show a green line marking overhead resistance where the index might stall or even turn lower. But it appears the index might be heading lower already. 25k, being a round number, supports the overhead resistance theory. But so does 24.5k, where the index is now.

Despite the above probabilities pointing to a higher close on Tuesday, I suspect that might not be the case. Just a feeling, mind you...

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  21,603.00    
 Weekly S2  22,333.79  730.79   
 Monthly S1  23,102.14  768.35   
 Weekly S1  23,467.53  365.39   
 Daily S2  24,077.62  610.09   
 Low  24,290.48  212.86   
 Open  24,337.76  47.28   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  24,339.45  1.69   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  24,471.81  132.36   
 Weekly Pivot  24,494.03  22.22   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,527.82  33.79   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  24,552.30  24.48   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,583.83  31.53   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  24,601.27  17.44   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  24,765.16  163.89   
 Daily R1  24,814.13  48.97   
 Monthly Pivot  24,859.42  45.30   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  25,026.98  167.56   
 Weekly R1  25,627.77  600.79   
 Monthly R1  26,358.56  730.79   
 Weekly R2  26,654.27  295.71   
 Monthly R2  28,115.84  1,461.57   

Monday 2/12/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow on the daily scale.

I show three images of the Dow industrials.

I paged backward through the Dow, looking for large downward moves. I picked these three, recent examples. I wanted to know how the index will perform going forward.

I've highlighted some of the turning points.

Notice that point A in all three charts mark an early bottom. Point B is a significant peak. C is another prominent valley. And D is a recovery peak.

Will the current correction take the same form as these three charts? Maybe so. At least they give you some idea of what might come next.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 1175.21 points.
Tuesday: Up 567.02 points.
Wednesday: Down 19.42 points.
Thursday: Down 1032.89 points.
Friday: Up 330.44 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 1330.06 points or 5.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 366.46 points or 5.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 142.58 points or 5.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     9.1% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     3.6% up from the low of 23,360.29 on 02/09/2018.
Nasdaq
     8.4% down from the high of 7,505.77 on 01/26/2018.
     3.7% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     8.8% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     3.4% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/09/2018, the CPI had:

6 bearish patterns,
0 bullish patterns,
59 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 0.0%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  22,956  23,573  23,978  24,595  25,000 
Weekly  22,197  23,194  24,357  25,354  26,517 
Monthly  21,466  22,829  24,723  26,085  27,979 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,491  2,555  2,597  2,661  2,703 
Weekly  2,408  2,514  2,639  2,744  2,869 
Monthly  2,335  2,477  2,675  2,817  3,015 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  6,521  6,698  6,807  6,984  7,094 
Weekly  6,281  6,578  6,928  7,224  7,574 
Monthly  6,129  6,502  7,004  7,377  7,879 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 15.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 21.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 14.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 21.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 16.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 25.8%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
45Double Top, Adam and Adam
37Pipe top
13Head-and-shoulders top
13Triangle, symmetrical
12Triple top
10Double Top, Eve and Eve
9Double Top, Eve and Adam
9Broadening top
7Triangle, ascending
7Double Top, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
2. Human Resources2. Human Resources
3. Apparel3. Shoe
4. Semiconductor4. Petroleum (Producing)
5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing5. Semiconductor
50. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)50. Advertising
51. Electric Utility (East)51. Chemical (Specialty)
52. Healthcare Information52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Natural Gas (Distributor)53. Electric Utility (East)
54. Household Products54. Household Products
55. Furn/Home Furnishings55. Healthcare Information
56. Electric Utility (Central)56. Electric Utility (Central)
57. Natural Gas (Diversified)57. Furn/Home Furnishings
58. Short ETFs58. Electric Utility (West)
59. Electric Utility (West)59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/9/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 46 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 619 stocks searched, or 7.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 31 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bearish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
MMMPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Diversified Co.
AXDXPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Medical Services
ACETDead-cat bounce      02/02/201802/02/2018Chemical (Diversified)
AABAPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Internet
ABCPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Biotechnology
BLLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/17/201802/07/2018Packaging and Container
BAXPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Medical Supplies
BIIBPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Biotechnology
BKHPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Electric Utility (West)
CSODPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018E-Commerce
COSTPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Retail Store
DDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/25/201802/02/2018Electric Utility (East)
ETFCHead-and-shoulders top      01/16/201802/02/2018Securities Brokerage
ESLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/08/201802/02/2018Precision Instrument
FFIVBroadening top      01/10/201802/06/2018Internet
FTNTBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      12/18/201702/08/2018Computer Software and Svcs
GPNPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Computer Software and Svcs
GOOGLPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Internet
HPPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Petroleum (Producing)
HONPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Aerospace/Defense
HURCHead-and-shoulders top      01/09/201802/02/2018Machinery
ITWPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Metal Fabricating
INFNTriple bottom      11/10/201702/06/2018Telecom. Equipment
ITGRPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Electronics
KELYABroadening bottom      12/14/201702/06/2018Human Resources
KMBPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Household Products
MBroadening top      12/04/201702/06/2018Retail Store
MOSBroadening top      01/03/201802/06/2018Chemical (Diversified)
NUSPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Toiletries/Cosmetics
PFEPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Drug
SLGNBroadening top      12/26/201702/08/2018Packaging and Container
STMPHead-and-shoulders top      01/29/201802/05/2018Internet
SUMPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Cement and Aggregates
TLRDPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Retail (Special Lines)
TUESRectangle top      09/28/201702/08/2018Retail Store
WMTPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Retail Store
WEXPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Information Services
WGLRectangle top      06/16/201702/08/2018Natural Gas (Distributor)
DDMPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Long ETFs
IYHPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Long ETFs
QLDPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Long ETFs
IBBPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Biotechnology
PBEPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Biotechnology
SSOPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Long ETFs
XLVPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Drug
UNGPipe top      01/22/201801/29/2018Natural Gas (Diversified)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/01/2018 and 02/08/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
3M Company (MMM)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 235 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $222.89
1 Month avg volatility: $4.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $242.94 or 9.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.75%
Volume: 3,607,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,950,578 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Accelerate Diagnostics Inc (AXDX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 326 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $23.60
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.22 or 23.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.92%
Volume: 419,300 shares. 3 month avg: 533,922 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 609 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $7.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.78 or 18.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -28.07%
Volume: 1,040,500 shares. 3 month avg: 395,892 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/02/2018 to 02/02/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Altaba (AABA)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 140 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $69.15
1 Month avg volatility: $2.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $76.84 or 11.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.92%
Volume: 5,716,200 shares. 3 month avg: 8,140,182 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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AmerisourceBergen Corp (ABC)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 149 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $91.55
1 Month avg volatility: $2.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $101.07 or 10.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.29%
Volume: 1,741,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,046,918 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Ball Corp (BLL)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 440 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $38.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $40.75 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.56%
Volume: 7,395,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,433,769 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/17/2018 to 02/07/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Baxter International, Inc. (BAX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 305 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $62.56
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.15 or 8.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.22%
Volume: 4,898,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,457,589 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Biogen Idec (BIIB)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 232 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $311.79
1 Month avg volatility: $9.99. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $348.69 or 11.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.13%
Volume: 1,383,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,244,726 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Black Hills Corp (BKH)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 594 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $50.72
1 Month avg volatility: $1.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $54.95 or 8.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.62%
Volume: 1,092,700 shares. 3 month avg: 512,838 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Cornerstone OnDemand Inc (CSOD)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 255 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $37.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $42.18 or 12.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.97%
Volume: 697,100 shares. 3 month avg: 697,858 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 153 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $178.61
1 Month avg volatility: $3.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $191.55 or 7.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.04%
Volume: 3,000,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,225,345 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Dominion Resources Inc. (D)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $73.31
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $76.92 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.56%
Volume: 4,045,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,249,422 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/25/2018 to 02/02/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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E-Trade Financial Corp (ETFC)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 120 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $48.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $54.80 or 13.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.20%
Volume: 3,709,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,308,982 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/16/2018 to 02/02/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Esterline Technologies Corp. (ESL)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 573 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $69.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $74.24 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.36%
Volume: 586,600 shares. 3 month avg: 259,972 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/08/2018 to 02/02/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/10/2017. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/09/2018 and a 38% chance by 05/11/2018.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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F5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 139 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $137.25
1 Month avg volatility: $3.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $148.57 or 8.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.60%
Volume: 988,100 shares. 3 month avg: 847,706 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 01/10/2018 to 02/06/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Fortinet Inc (FTNT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 83 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $44.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.02 or 7.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.85%
Volume: 3,685,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,532,971 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 12/18/2017 to 02/08/2018
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Global Payments Inc (GPN)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 290 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $100.59
1 Month avg volatility: $2.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $111.54 or 10.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.35%
Volume: 1,443,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,112,569 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Google (GOOGL)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 249 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $1,007.71
1 Month avg volatility: $22.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1,108.60 or 10.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.34%
Volume: 3,301,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,574,874 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Helmerich and Payne Inc. (HP)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 24 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $64.87
1 Month avg volatility: $2.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $72.28 or 11.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.36%
Volume: 2,755,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,165 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 288 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $146.02
1 Month avg volatility: $2.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $157.19 or 7.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.79%
Volume: 3,340,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,744,942 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Hurco Companies Inc. (HURC)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 99 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $40.85
1 Month avg volatility: $1.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.65 or 14.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.20%
Volume: 27,500 shares. 3 month avg: 26,271 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/09/2018 to 02/02/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 183 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $156.15
1 Month avg volatility: $3.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $171.31 or 9.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.41%
Volume: 2,047,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,139,580 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 387 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $8.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.46 or 16.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 41.55%
Volume: 12,128,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,624,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 11/10/2017 to 02/06/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/09/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/10/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Integer Holdings Corp (ITGR)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 420 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $43.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.01 or 11.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.28%
Volume: 159,600 shares. 3 month avg: 175,968 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Kelly Services A (KELYA)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 76 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $27.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.97 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.76%
Volume: 202,800 shares. 3 month avg: 173,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 12/14/2017 to 02/06/2018
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Kimberly-Clark Corp (KMB)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 480 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $111.69
1 Month avg volatility: $2.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $118.70 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.43%
Volume: 2,772,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,082,589 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Macys, Inc (M)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 306 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $24.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.88 or 12.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.72%
Volume: 8,861,900 shares. 3 month avg: 14,056,392 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/04/2017 to 02/06/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Mosaic Co (MOS)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 157 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $24.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $27.17 or 12.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.96%
Volume: 4,514,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,715,435 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 01/03/2018 to 02/06/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc (NUS)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 248 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $66.66
1 Month avg volatility: $1.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $72.46 or 8.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.30%
Volume: 354,600 shares. 3 month avg: 417,486 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 367 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $33.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.82 or 9.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.15%
Volume: 43,370,400 shares. 3 month avg: 16,141,055 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Silgan Holdings Inc (SLGN)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 486 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $27.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.30 or 8.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.07%
Volume: 1,082,600 shares. 3 month avg: 499,285 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/26/2017 to 02/08/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Stamps.com (STMP)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 514 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $191.00
1 Month avg volatility: $7.67. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $216.80 or 13.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.60%
Volume: 262,200 shares. 3 month avg: 426,580 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/29/2018 to 02/05/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/03/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/04/2018.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Summit Materials Inc (SUM)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 409 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $28.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.83 or 11.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.11%
Volume: 897,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,204,178 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 3 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $21.91
1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25.20 or 15.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.36%
Volume: 1,513,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,393,492 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Tuesday Morning Corp (TUES)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 13 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $2.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.28 or 15.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.82%
Volume: 331,100 shares. 3 month avg: 391,566 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 09/28/2017 to 02/08/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 72 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $100.02
1 Month avg volatility: $2.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $107.96 or 7.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.29%
Volume: 13,901,500 shares. 3 month avg: 9,313,488 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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WEX Inc (WEX)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 32 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $139.00
1 Month avg volatility: $3.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $152.48 or 9.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.58%
Volume: 539,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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WGL Holdings (WGL)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 397 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $84.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $82.84 or 1.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.81%
Volume: 540,800 shares. 3 month avg: 264,052 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 06/16/2017 to 02/08/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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DJIA, long 2x Ultra Dow 30 ProShares (DDM)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 129 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $121.93
1 Month avg volatility: $4.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $141.38 or 16.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.56%
Volume: 1,640,500 shares. 3 month avg: 146,360 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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iShares DJ US Healthcare (IYH)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 337 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $170.77
1 Month avg volatility: $2.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $182.48 or 6.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.86%
Volume: 121,900 shares. 3 month avg: 98,992 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Nasdaq 100 long 2x Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 171 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $70.62
1 Month avg volatility: $2.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $82.73 or 17.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.07%
Volume: 2,918,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,041,785 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (IBB)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 369 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $104.86
1 Month avg volatility: $2.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $114.67 or 9.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.53%
Volume: 4,115,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,251,345 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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PowerShares Dynamic Biotech and Genome (PBE)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 301 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $48.64
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $53.13 or 9.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.86%
Volume: 18,300 shares. 3 month avg: 18,102 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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S and P long 2x Ultra SP 500 ProShares (SSO)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 227 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $101.14
1 Month avg volatility: $3.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $115.65 or 14.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.59%
Volume: 6,741,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,059,148 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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SPDR Health Care Select Sector (XLV)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 346 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $80.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $86.69 or 7.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.86%
Volume: 20,169,500 shares. 3 month avg: 6,841,795 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 529 out of 611
2/8/18 close: $22.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.74 or 8.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.64%
Volume: 7,426,700 shares. 3 month avg: 10,262,434 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thursday 2/8/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.9% or -63.9 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 195 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 92 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 103 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 142/253 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 44/86 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index went horizontal after 1:00. I show that confined by two red lines. That's a rectangle. I vote for a rectangle bottom but top works, too.

If the rectangle continues, look for the index to climb to the top of the rectangle.

Otherwise, the index might breakout downward, completing a measured move down or ABC correction.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,551.33    
 Monthly S1  6,801.66  250.32   
 Daily S2  6,972.47  170.82   
 Weekly S2  7,001.16  28.69   
 Daily S1  7,012.23  11.07   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  7,026.57  14.34   
 Low  7,051.53  24.96   
 Close  7,051.98  0.45   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Open  7,086.20  34.22   
 Daily Pivot  7,091.28  5.08   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,096.92  5.63   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,110.94  14.02   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,124.95  14.02   
 Daily R1  7,131.04  6.08   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  7,153.71  22.68   
 High  7,170.34  16.63   
 Daily R2  7,210.09  39.75   
 Weekly Pivot  7,263.59  53.50   
 Weekly R1  7,289.00  25.41   
 Monthly R1  7,404.04  115.04   
 Weekly R2  7,526.02  121.98   
 Monthly R2  7,756.09  230.07   

Wednesday 2/7/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The behavior of the chart pattern indicator this time, is exemplary. It correctly signaled a market turn a few days before the Dow started tumbling.

That's the good news. The bad news is that these bear stripes (the vertical red line on the far right of the chart) happen frequently. Probably too often to trust.

Notice that the chart is still bearish. I know my portfolio only regained about one-quarter of what it lost the prior day.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 26% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 17%.
The fewest was 15% on 02/21/2017.
And the most was 30% on 08/21/2017.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 515 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 10%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 17% on 02/05/2018.

This chart is the worst I've seen. Ever.

The number of bearish stocks in my database climbed from 17% a week ago to 26% now. Wow. That's the red line, the more sensitive of the two lines.

The blue line wasn't immune to the market's tumble. The average stock is now off 17% from it's yearly high, well up from 10% a week ago. That's no surprise since the markets tumbled 8% in like three days and only retraced a portion of that drop.

One thing we can expect is continued volatility.

I won't tell you what to do, but I will tell you that I bought as the markets tumbled. I think it's a good time to buy the dip, but that's me.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/6/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -4.6% or -1175.21 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 5 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 2.5% on 2 occasions.
     Average loss was -6.4% on 3 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 60.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 154/260 or 59.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 33/66 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 1 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 1-minute scale, today's (Monday's) price action only.

This is a different chart than the usual 10-day, 5 minute one.

Despite my expecting the Dow to close 200 points higher, the index opened lower, right from the start.

At A, the index was off more than 1,500 points. But notice how long the decline lasted, just 1 or 2 minutes below 24k before traders bought and pushed it back up. Fast.

I think the 24,000 level is a support area, so I'm looking for the index to move lower tomorrow, but, hopefully, not make a lower low.

If you compare today's action with what happened in 1987, you'll see the drop started on Friday, made a big drop on Monday 10/19/1987, followed by a lower low the next day. It closed higher on Tuesday. Maybe that's the blueprint to follow this time around.

You can think of this as a buying opportunity. It's like using a coupon for 8% off the purchase price of your favorite stock, providing you hold long enough.

In 1987, after the 31% drop over 3 days, the index moved horizontally.

This time, unseasoned traders will be shell shocked and too afraid to buy. Seasoned traders will be selective, but nibbling, and wondering how this is going to shake out.

My hope is that this is a buying opportunity.

Look back at the 2018 prediction. I guess the swift January drop was a month late, but it's here now. See how the Dow recovers? Perhaps I'm tempting fate, so don't be surprised if the Dow drops another 1,000 on Tuesday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Daily S2  23,000.07    
 Monthly S2  23,329.74  329.67   
 Daily S1  23,672.91  343.17   
 Monthly S1  23,837.74  164.83   
 Low  23,923.88  86.14   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly S1.
 Close  24,345.75  421.87   
 Weekly S1  24,354.64  8.89   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Close.
 Weekly S2  24,363.53  8.89   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  24,533.80  170.27   
 Daily Pivot  24,596.72  62.92   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,722.21  125.48   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,910.61  188.40   
 Monthly Pivot  25,227.23  316.62   
 Daily R1  25,269.56  42.33   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Open  25,337.87  68.31   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  25,472.88  135.01   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  25,481.77  8.89   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Weekly R1.
 High  25,520.53  38.76   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Monthly R1  25,735.23  214.71   
 Daily R2  26,193.37  458.13   
 Weekly R2  26,600.01  406.64   
 Monthly R2  27,124.72  524.71   

Monday 2/5/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

With such a large drop in the indices, I thought it would be good to see where we could be going in the future.

This chart uses the belief that the Dow industrials have a 10-year cycle (please note: the 2007-2009 bear market is not included in the prediction). All you have to do to create the chart, is to average daily price data for years ending in 8 (1938, 1948 and so on).

As you can see, it's rarely accurate, but it does provide a roadmap.

Notice that point A is the lowest on the chart (red line). It suggested, based on historical trends, the index would bottom in the first few weeks of January. Clearly, as the bar chart shows, that drop didn't happen.

Maybe it's happening now.

Or today's drop could mirror the drop at B.

I drew vertical blue (they look black) lines at the turning points of A and the peak so far in 2018.

I wanted to see how often price continued lower after such a decline, but it's Friday night. So forget that idea.

I think it's a bit early to buy the dip, I think, but I'll know more when I look at my portfolio on Saturday.

Saturday addendum: I added a Saturday post where I predict Monday's move. Page down to the next post.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 177.23 points.
Tuesday: Down 362.59 points.
Wednesday: Up 72.5 points.
Thursday: Up 37.32 points.
Friday: Down 665.75 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 1095.75 points or 4.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 264.82 points or 3.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 110.74 points or 3.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.1% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     3.1% up from the low of 24,741.70 on 01/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     3.5% down from the high of 7,505.77 on 01/26/2018.
     4.6% up from the low of 6,924.08 on 01/02/2018.
S&P 500
     3.9% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     3.0% up from the low of 2,682.36 on 01/02/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/02/2018, the CPI had:

80 bearish patterns,
3 bullish patterns,
107 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 3.6%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 3 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,120  25,320  25,691  25,892  26,262 
Weekly  24,755  25,138  25,874  26,256  26,992 
Monthly  23,721  24,621  25,619  26,519  27,516 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,728  2,745  2,777  2,794  2,826 
Weekly  2,687  2,725  2,798  2,835  2,908 
Monthly  2,570  2,666  2,770  2,865  2,969 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,155  7,198  7,281  7,324  7,407 
Weekly  7,064  7,153  7,327  7,415  7,589 
Monthly  6,614  6,928  7,217  7,530  7,819 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 21.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 26.8%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 21.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.3%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 25.8%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
17Double Top, Adam and Adam
16Triangle, symmetrical
8Head-and-shoulders top
7Triangle, ascending
7Double Top, Eve and Adam
6Pipe top
6Broadening top
5Double Top, Eve and Eve
4Triple top
4Flag, high and tight

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Trucking/Transp. Leasing1. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
2. Human Resources2. Human Resources
3. Shoe3. Retail Building Supply
4. Petroleum (Producing)4. Apparel
5. Semiconductor5. Semiconductor
50. Advertising50. Electric Utility (East)
51. Chemical (Specialty)51. Natural Gas (Distributor)
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Advertising
53. Electric Utility (East)53. Healthcare Information
54. Household Products54. Household Products
55. Healthcare Information55. Chemical (Specialty)
56. Electric Utility (Central)56. Electric Utility (Central)
57. Furn/Home Furnishings57. Furn/Home Furnishings
58. Electric Utility (West)58. Electric Utility (West)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Saturday Supplement 2/3/18. What Will Happen Monday?

On Monday's post, I mention that I didn't have time or inclination to do the analysis for Monday's opening move. I discuss those results below.

I created a spreadsheet of Dow movements since October 1928 and found 39 cases where the Dow dropped by 2.6% (the drop on Friday).

  • Of those 39 cases, 23 of them saw the Dow close higher and 16 were lower.
  • For those 23 closing higher, the median rise was 1.11% with an average of 1.15%.
  • For those 16 closing lower, the median drop was 1%, the average was 1.72%
  • 14 of the drops happened on Friday. Seven of them saw Monday close higher and 7 closed lower.
  • For the 7 that closed higher on Monday, the median gain was 0.79% and the average was 0.78%.
  • For the 7 that closed lower on Monday, the median loss was 2.26% and the average was 2.19%. That's a huge move!
  • However, if we look at the move since 1990, we find that 3 Monday's closed higher and 2 lower.
  • The median gain was 0.79% and the average was 0.77%.
  • The median and average loss was 0.4%.

Based on this analysis, the Dow will likely close higher by, oh, 202 points (median rise since 1990). If it closes lower, it'll drop 102 points (median/avg drop since 1990).

Want to check my work? Load the spreadsheet (1.7mb).

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/2/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

For those of you with diabetes, pre-diabetic, or just concerned about their blood glucose like me, try taking berberine. I started that on 12/20/17 and it finally started kicking in this week. After eating breakfast, my blood sugar level actually dropped from the same meal a month ago. And for high carb meals, the rise is significantly suppressed (50% rise before is now down to 15%).

I take one pill of 500mg each morning and another 500mg pill before a high carb meal. As I said, it'll take weeks (6 for me) before it begins to work. AND you don't want to mix this with metformin or other diabetic medication. In fact, I consider it a replacement for metformin (which I've never taken). They act similar.

I've also tried vinegar (supposedly 1 tbls in water works, but didn't for me) and gymnema sylvester didn't work either.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 619 stocks searched, or 3.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 9 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
DOXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/24/201801/31/2018IT Services
BCPCTriangle, symmetrical      12/21/201701/29/2018Chemical (Specialty)
BBYDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/23/201801/26/2018Retail (Special Lines)
BRCTriangle, symmetrical      11/16/201701/29/2018Chemical (Diversified)
CENXFlag, high and tight      11/29/201702/01/2018Metals and Mining (Div.)
EXPHead-and-shoulders top      01/08/201801/26/2018Cement and Aggregates
EXCTriangle, symmetrical      01/03/201801/31/2018Electric Utility (East)
FOETriangle, descending      11/30/201702/01/2018Chemical (Specialty)
ILMNTriple top      01/16/201801/31/2018Biotechnology
IPGTriangle, ascending      01/16/201802/01/2018Advertising
LLYBroadening bottom      01/02/201801/31/2018Drug
MDTHead-and-shoulders top      01/09/201801/29/2018Medical Supplies
OMIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/22/201801/29/2018Medical Supplies
PDCOHead-and-shoulders top      01/08/201801/29/2018Medical Supplies
REVHorn top      01/08/201801/22/2018Toiletries/Cosmetics
ROGPipe top      01/16/201801/22/2018Electronics
TMKDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/11/201801/29/2018Insurance (Diversified)
TSCOPipe top      01/16/201801/22/2018Retail Building Supply
TREXTriangle, symmetrical      12/26/201702/01/2018Building Materials
TUESRectangle top      09/28/201702/01/2018Retail Store

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 01/25/2018 and 02/01/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Amdocs Limited (DOX)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 449 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $68.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $70.21 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.08%
Volume: 746,800 shares. 3 month avg: 895,243 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/24/2018 to 01/31/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Balchem Corp (BCPC)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 442 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $78.71
1 Month avg volatility: $1.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.28 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.34%
Volume: 145,200 shares. 3 month avg: 82,003 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/21/2017 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Best Buy Co. (BBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 171 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $73.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.86 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.76%
Volume: 3,190,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,325,955 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/23/2018 to 01/26/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Brady Corp (BRC)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 241 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $38.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.47 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.72%
Volume: 122,900 shares. 3 month avg: 204,463 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/16/2017 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 72 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $22.83
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.64 or 14.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.24%
Volume: 1,187,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,285,742 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 11/29/2017 to 02/01/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 201 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $112.82
1 Month avg volatility: $2.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $119.62 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.42%
Volume: 936,000 shares. 3 month avg: 553,088 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/08/2018 to 01/26/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Exelon Corp. (EXC)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 470 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $37.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.42 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.98%
Volume: 4,895,100 shares. 3 month avg: 5,244,875 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/03/2018 to 01/31/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Ferro Corp (FOE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 229 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $23.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.66 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.97%
Volume: 307,200 shares. 3 month avg: 594,032 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 11/30/2017 to 02/01/2018
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Illumina Inc (ILMN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 263 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $230.29
1 Month avg volatility: $5.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $244.37 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.40%
Volume: 939,200 shares. 3 month avg: 759,071 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 01/16/2018 to 01/31/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 460 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $21.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.67 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.99%
Volume: 3,093,600 shares. 3 month avg: 6,516,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 01/16/2018 to 02/01/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Lilly, Eli and Co. (LLY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $82.41
1 Month avg volatility: $1.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.32 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.43%
Volume: 7,474,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,358,597 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 01/02/2018 to 01/31/2018
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Medtronic Inc (MDT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 445 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $84.98
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $88.13 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.24%
Volume: 4,139,600 shares. 3 month avg: 5,761,640 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/09/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Owens and Minor Inc (OMI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 606 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $17.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $21.05 or 18.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.83%
Volume: 5,660,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,318,423 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/22/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Patterson Companies Inc. (PDCO)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 545 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $35.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.34 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.30%
Volume: 1,193,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,885,975 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/08/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Revlon Inc (REV)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 267 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $21.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.08 or 9.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.21%
Volume: 54,800 shares. 3 month avg: 238,602 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 01/08/2018 to 01/22/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 7%.
Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Rogers Corp (ROG)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 54 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $164.30
1 Month avg volatility: $5.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $176.49 or 7.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.47%
Volume: 223,300 shares. 3 month avg: 155,332 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/16/2018 to 01/22/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Torchmark Corp (TMK)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 277 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $90.74
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $93.41 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.03%
Volume: 995,600 shares. 3 month avg: 431,386 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 01/11/2018 to 01/29/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Tractor Supply Co (TSCO)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 119 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $71.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.61. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $75.52 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.43%
Volume: 7,947,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,128,008 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/16/2018 to 01/22/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Trex Company (TREX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 31 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $111.98
1 Month avg volatility: $3.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $102.83 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.31%
Volume: 198,900 shares. 3 month avg: 245,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/26/2017 to 02/01/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Tuesday Morning Corp (TUES)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 11 out of 611
2/1/18 close: $3.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.40 or 21.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.91%
Volume: 824,900 shares. 3 month avg: 391,566 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 09/28/2017 to 02/01/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Thursday 2/1/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.1% or 9 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 675 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 371 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 304 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 142/252 or 56.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 44/86 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A symmetrical triangle appears outlined in the chart in blue (A). It broke out upward, threw back to the top trendline and a bit below before gapping up higher today (Wednesday).

What followed was promise chasing disappointment as the composite dropped. The red line shows this day-long downward trend. It makes me wonder what will happen on Thursday.

Even though I think the indices will move to new highs, this intraday trend gives me pause. Perhaps the upward push I expect in the coming days won't be as robust as I hope.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,671.17    
 Monthly S1  7,041.32  370.16   
 Weekly S2  7,243.73  202.40   
 Monthly Pivot  7,273.55  29.82   
 Weekly S1  7,327.60  54.06   
 Daily S2  7,342.66  15.06   
 Daily S1  7,377.07  34.41   
 Low  7,381.12  4.05   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,408.96  27.84   
 Close  7,411.48  2.52   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  7,415.53  4.05   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot  7,416.69  1.16   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,417.56  0.87   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,426.15  8.60   
 Open  7,443.25  17.10   
 Daily R1  7,449.94  6.69   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  7,453.99  4.05   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  7,488.40  34.41   
 Weekly R1  7,500.56  12.16   
 Weekly R2  7,589.65  89.08   
 Monthly R1  7,643.70  54.06   
 Monthly R2  7,875.93  232.22   

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