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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
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Patterns
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 09/21/2017
22,359 -53.36 -0.2%
9,669 14.62 0.2%
731 -0.83 -0.1%
6,423 -33.35 -0.5%
2,501 -7.64 -0.3%
YTD
13.1%
6.9%
10.8%
19.3%
11.7%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 09/14/2017
22,450 or 21,500 by 10/01/2017
9,750 or 9,200 by 10/01/2017
775 or 730 by 10/01/2017
6,650 or 6,200 by 10/01/2017
2,600 or 2,425 by 10/01/2017

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February 2017 Headlines


Archives


Tuesday 2/28/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.1% or 15.68 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1305 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 672 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 633 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 133/221 or 60.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/64 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I didn't see anything noteworthy on the chart until I looked at the slopes of the trends.

Notice that trendline A has the highest slope of the three red lines. Lines C and D have similar slopes.

After line A, the index retraces a bit by forming slope B. A quick rise after B sees the trend change into a more shallow one, C.

Trend D moves horizontally, or nearly so, before resuming the upward move.

Put all of this together and what do we have? No idea.

I'm thinking that the next move will be horizontal, based on the slope of C and the following move, D.

It'll be interesting to see if this plays out that way.

$ $ $

I released a new version of Patternz (5.20). I added support for OHLC charts, as requested, and fixed a minor bug.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  19,361.83    
 Monthly S1  20,099.63  737.81   
 Monthly Pivot  20,470.17  370.53   
 Weekly S2  20,603.17  133.01   
 Weekly S1  20,720.31  117.13   
 Daily S2  20,744.61  24.30   
 Low  20,774.76  30.15   
 Weekly Pivot  20,780.50  5.74   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  20,791.02  10.52   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  20,804.01  12.99   
 Open  20,808.71  4.70   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  20,813.04  4.33   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  20,821.18  8.13   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  20,822.08  0.90   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  20,837.44  15.36   
 High  20,851.33  13.89   
 Daily R1  20,867.59  16.26   
 Weekly R1  20,897.64  30.04   
 Daily R2  20,897.75  0.11   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  20,957.83  60.09   
 Monthly R1  21,207.97  250.14   
 Monthly R2  21,578.51  370.53   

Monday 2/27/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the s and p 500 on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The market has continued to rise, as the picture shows.

Can we predict when it will reverse?

Yes.

Will the prediction be correct?

Probably not.

Here's how it's done. Shown is a measured move up chart pattern. The theory behind the pattern is that leg CD will equal the length of AB.

The math goes like this: The low at point A is 2083.79 and the high at B is 2277.53 for a first leg move of 193.74. The second leg uses the low at C (2233.62) to get the high point, D.

That would be 2233.62 + 193.74 or 2427.36. The high at D, so far, is 2368.26, so we have a bit more to go. That is, if the measured move fulfills its promise.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of animals in my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Holiday or other weird event!
Tuesday: Up 118.95 points.
Wednesday: Up 32.6 points.
Thursday: Up 34.72 points.
Friday: Up 11.44 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 197.71 points or 1.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 6.73 points or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 16.1802 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.1% down from the high of 20,840.70 on 02/23/2017.
     5.8% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     0.4% down from the high of 5,867.89 on 02/21/2017.
     8.3% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     0.0% down from the high of 2,368.26 on 02/23/2017.
     5.4% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/24/2017, the CPI had:

17 bearish patterns,
26 bullish patterns,
225 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 60.5%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  20,705  20,763  20,792  20,851  20,880 
Weekly  20,598  20,710  20,775  20,887  20,953 
Monthly  19,357  20,089  20,465  21,198  21,573 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,348  2,358  2,363  2,372  2,377 
Weekly  2,347  2,357  2,363  2,373  2,378 
Monthly  2,220  2,293  2,331  2,405  2,442 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,786  5,815  5,830  5,860  5,875 
Weekly  5,771  5,808  5,838  5,875  5,905 
Monthly  5,400  5,623  5,745  5,968  6,090 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks up 22.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 4 months up 21.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 5 weeks up 11.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 4 months up 28.8%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 5 weeks up 9.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 4 months up 18.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
17Triangle, symmetrical
14Channel
11Pipe bottom
7Rising wedge
7Rectangle top
7Triple bottom
6Triple top
6Triangle, ascending
5Head-and-shoulders top
5Dead-cat bounce

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Securities Brokerage1. Securities Brokerage
2. Insurance (Life)2. Insurance (Life)
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.3. Human Resources
4. Semiconductor4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Human Resources5. Semiconductor
50. Biotechnology50. Electric Utility (East)
51. Retail Store51. Retail Store
52. Shoe52. Shoe
53. Toiletries/Cosmetics53. Natural Gas (Diversified)
54. Natural Gas (Diversified)54. Toiletries/Cosmetics
55. Short ETFs55. Short ETFs
56. Furn/Home Furnishings56. Furn/Home Furnishings
57. Apparel57. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/24/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 621 stocks searched, or 2.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISChannel      04/29/201602/23/2017Semiconductor
AJRDBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      12/15/201602/23/2017Diversified Co.
COGPipe top      02/06/201702/13/2017Natural Gas (Diversified)
CGNXChannel      01/11/201602/23/2017Precision Instrument
DVNChannel      12/08/201602/23/2017Natural Gas (Diversified)
EXCBroadening top, right-angled and descending      12/16/201602/23/2017Electric Utility (East)
GFFTriangle, symmetrical      01/04/201702/23/2017Building Materials
HLHead-and-shoulders top      01/24/201702/21/2017Metals and Mining (Div.)
IBPTriangle, descending      12/08/201602/23/2017Retail Building Supply
IPGTriangle, symmetrical      02/13/201702/23/2017Advertising
LANCChannel      01/27/201702/23/2017Food Processing
MHOTriangle, symmetrical      02/03/201702/23/2017Homebuilding
NCSRectangle bottom      12/13/201602/23/2017Building Materials
PATKBroadening wedge, ascending      12/22/201602/23/2017Retail Building Supply
SWNChannel      12/13/201602/23/2017Natural Gas (Diversified)
PHORising wedge      12/21/201602/23/2017Investment Co. (Domestic)
XLEChannel      12/15/201602/23/2017Petroleum (Integrated)
USORectangle bottom      01/09/201702/23/2017Petroleum (Producing)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/16/2017 and 02/23/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 45 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $61.66
1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.05 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.62%
Volume: 289,200 shares. 3 month avg: 365,272 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 02/23/2017

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Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 299 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $19.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.11 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.35%
Volume: 184,200 shares. 3 month avg: 406,545 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 12/15/2016 to 02/23/2017
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Cabot Oil and Gas A (COG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 549 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $22.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.31 or 7.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.55%
Volume: 6,249,900 shares. 3 month avg: 6,627,088 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/06/2017 to 02/13/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Cognex (CGNX)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 19 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $76.19
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.43 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.76%
Volume: 803,700 shares. 3 month avg: 578,631 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/11/2016 to 02/23/2017

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Devon Energy Corp. (DVN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $43.99
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.87 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.68%
Volume: 4,979,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,465,525 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 12/08/2016 to 02/23/2017

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Exelon Corp. (EXC)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 370 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $35.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.68 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.38%
Volume: 5,173,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,927,340 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 12/16/2016 to 02/23/2017
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 33 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $25.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.90 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.82%
Volume: 98,400 shares. 3 month avg: 254,209 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/04/2017 to 02/23/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Hecla Mining Co. (HL)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 245 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $6.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.00 or 15.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.84%
Volume: 11,298,300 shares. 3 month avg: 10,513,982 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/24/2017 to 02/21/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Installed Building Products Inc (IBP)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 92 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $40.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.26 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.33%
Volume: 194,000 shares. 3 month avg: 155,372 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 12/08/2016 to 02/23/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 309 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $24.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.49 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.78%
Volume: 4,350,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,835,817 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/13/2017 to 02/23/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Lancaster Colony Corp (LANC)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 432 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $134.38
1 Month avg volatility: $3.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $125.74 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.96%
Volume: 58,500 shares. 3 month avg: 85,131 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/27/2017 to 02/23/2017

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M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 433 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $23.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.96 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.31%
Volume: 92,700 shares. 3 month avg: 206,834 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/03/2017 to 02/23/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 538 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $15.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.74 or 7.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.64%
Volume: 197,300 shares. 3 month avg: 398,611 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 12/13/2016 to 02/23/2017
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Patrick Industries Inc (PATK)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 132 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $78.40
1 Month avg volatility: $2.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $84.73 or 8.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.75%
Volume: 70,900 shares. 3 month avg: 121,134 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 12/22/2016 to 02/23/2017
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 606 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $8.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.51 or 10.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -22.83%
Volume: 14,359,900 shares. 3 month avg: 14,123,269 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 12/13/2016 to 02/23/2017

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PowerShares Water Resources (PHO)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 318 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $25.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.61 or 2.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.45%
Volume: 53,500 shares. 3 month avg: 58,154 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 12/21/2016 to 02/23/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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SPDR Energy Select Sector (XLE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 391 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $71.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $69.37 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.86%
Volume: 17,083,800 shares. 3 month avg: 13,057,069 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 12/15/2016 to 02/23/2017

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United States Oil (USO)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 308 out of 613
2/23/17 close: $11.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.95 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.62%
Volume: 18,498,800 shares. 3 month avg: 28,630,615 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 01/09/2017 to 02/23/2017
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Thursday 2/23/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -5.32 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 560 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 308 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 252 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 121/212 or 57.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/80 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index has followed an upward trend as the thin red line shows.

A rectangle top appears, which I show outlined in green. The index could continue to move sideways.

However, I was watching my program create the chart pattern indicator. It showed a red vertical bar (bearish). It disappeared but the indicator has taken a steep dip today. That could change easily enough if we have a strong rise posted by the market. But it signals a warning that weakness is underlying this sideways move.

The above probabilities suggests a higher close on Thursday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,424.74    
 Monthly S1  5,642.69  217.94   
 Weekly S2  5,726.14  83.46   
 Monthly Pivot  5,740.63  14.49   
 Weekly S1  5,793.39  52.75   
 Weekly Pivot  5,815.98  22.60   
 Daily S2  5,841.64  25.66   
 Low  5,848.28  6.64   
 Daily S1  5,851.14  2.86   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,854.44  3.31   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,856.35  1.90   
 Open  5,857.56  1.21   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  5,857.77  0.21   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,858.25  0.48   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  5,860.63  2.38   
 High  5,864.41  3.78   
 Daily R1  5,867.27  2.86   
 Daily R2  5,873.90  6.64   
 Weekly R1  5,883.23  9.32   
 Weekly R2  5,905.82  22.60   
 Monthly R1  5,958.58  52.75   
 Monthly R2  6,056.52  97.95   

Wednesday 2/22/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This picture of the indicator is similar to the one last week.

The market continues to rise and the indicator climbs, too. I don't see any hint of things changing.

I guess that the only concern I have is that the Dow is rising too fast. The slope is too steep and that suggests a retrace is coming. And yes, I know all about the aspect ratio. If you move the vertical right axis, you'll change the slope of the lines. Regardless, the slope is too steep to be sustainable over the long term.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Friday, 16% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 16%.
The fewest was 14% on 01/25/2017.
And the most was 59% on 02/23/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 518 stocks in my database are down an average of 11% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 11%.
The peak was 10% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 28% on 02/23/2016.

Again, the lines did not show any net movement from a week ago. It's in a holding pattern.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 1/21/17. A look at Washington's Birthday

Washington's birthday is Monday, a market holiday.

How does the market perform before and after the holiday?

Price closes higher 39.2% of the time the trading day before Washington's birthday. In other words, they close lower. It's the worst performing pre-holiday result of the nine holidays studied.

After the holiday, the Dow closes up 50.7% of the time. That's random.

In a bear market, Washington's birthday shows the worst post-holiday performance with price closing up just 28.8% of the time.

For more information, click to link and read the research.

-- Thomas Bulkowski


Friday 2/17/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 17 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 621 stocks searched, or 2.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 5 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 9 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISChannel      04/29/201602/16/2017Semiconductor
AVPDead-cat bounce      02/16/201702/16/2017Toiletries/Cosmetics
BIIBPipe bottom      01/30/201702/06/2017Biotechnology
BBWDead-cat bounce      02/16/201702/16/2017Retail (Special Lines)
CFDouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/25/201702/13/2017Chemical (Basic)
CGNXChannel      01/05/201702/16/2017Precision Instrument
CMTLTriangle, descending      01/20/201702/14/2017Telecom. Equipment
^DJUChannel      01/09/201702/16/2017None
EGNPipe bottom      01/30/201702/06/2017Natural Gas (Diversified)
EQTDiamond bottom      01/17/201702/16/2017Natural Gas (Diversified)
HETriple top      12/21/201602/10/2017Electric Utility (West)
IBPTriangle, descending      12/08/201602/16/2017Retail Building Supply
NCSRectangle bottom      12/13/201602/16/2017Building Materials
NFXPipe bottom      01/30/201702/06/2017Natural Gas (Diversified)
NITriangle, symmetrical      11/01/201602/15/2017Electric Utility (Central)
ASGNBroadening wedge, ascending      01/09/201702/16/2017Human Resources
PMCPipe bottom      01/30/201702/06/2017Medical Services
RJFRising wedge      12/15/201602/16/2017Securities Brokerage
TPXPipe bottom      02/06/201702/06/2017Furn/Home Furnishings
TREXRectangle top      11/16/201602/16/2017Building Materials
YUMERectangle top      12/09/201602/16/2017Advertising
SMHRising wedge      12/28/201602/16/2017Semiconductor

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/09/2017 and 02/16/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 33 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $61.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.94 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.86%
Volume: 391,200 shares. 3 month avg: 365,811 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 02/16/2017

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Avon Products (AVP)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 551 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $4.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.94 or 24.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.36%
Volume: 34,725,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,436,634 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/16/2017 to 02/16/2017
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Biogen Idec (BIIB)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 524 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $290.13
1 Month avg volatility: $5.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $277.10 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.31%
Volume: 1,824,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,833,343 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/30/2017 to 02/06/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc (BBW)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 592 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $9.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.42 or 11.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -32.00%
Volume: 2,360,700 shares. 3 month avg: 126,652 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/16/2017 to 02/16/2017
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 42 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $33.52
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.07 or 13.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.48%
Volume: 10,592,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,625,652 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 01/25/2017 to 02/13/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Cognex (CGNX)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 44 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $70.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.34 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.74%
Volume: 851,400 shares. 3 month avg: 543,578 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/05/2017 to 02/16/2017

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Comtech Telecommunications Corp (CMTL)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 548 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $11.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.28 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.60%
Volume: 254,600 shares. 3 month avg: 287,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 01/20/2017 to 02/14/2017
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 12/08/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 03/09/2017 and a 38% chance by 06/08/2017.
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
2/16/17 close: $670.89
1 Month avg volatility: $6.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $652.86 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.71%
Volume: 46,160,300 shares. 3 month avg: 37,605,483 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/09/2017 to 02/16/2017

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Energen Corp (EGN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 408 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $55.92
1 Month avg volatility: $1.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.63 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.03%
Volume: 1,206,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,064,180 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/30/2017 to 02/06/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Equitable Resources, Inc (EQT)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 542 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $62.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.87 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.82%
Volume: 1,587,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,961,632 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 01/17/2017 to 02/16/2017
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 282 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $32.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.58 or 2.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.97%
Volume: 483,100 shares. 3 month avg: 564,982 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 12/21/2016 to 02/10/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Installed Building Products Inc (IBP)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 67 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $41.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.23 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.00%
Volume: 53,200 shares. 3 month avg: 158,648 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 12/08/2016 to 02/16/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 503 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $16.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.97 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.56%
Volume: 202,200 shares. 3 month avg: 423,111 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 12/13/2016 to 02/16/2017
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Newfield Exploration Company (NFX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 533 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $42.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.87 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.05%
Volume: 1,619,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,392,052 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/30/2017 to 02/06/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Nisource Inc. (NI)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 534 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $22.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.55 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.39%
Volume: 3,382,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,776,171 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/01/2016 to 02/15/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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On Assignment, Inc. (ASGN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 69 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $48.17
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $50.52 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.08%
Volume: 615,200 shares. 3 month avg: 371,449 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 01/09/2017 to 02/16/2017
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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PharMerica Corp (PMC)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 137 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $26.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.39 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.57%
Volume: 140,500 shares. 3 month avg: 184,098 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/30/2017 to 02/06/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 47 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $79.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $82.04 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.15%
Volume: 519,200 shares. 3 month avg: 712,738 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 12/15/2016 to 02/16/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Tempur-pedic Intl (TPX)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 606 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $47.94
1 Month avg volatility: $2.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.57 or 11.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.79%
Volume: 4,723,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,695,329 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/06/2017 to 02/06/2017
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/30/2017. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/01/2017 and a 38% chance by 07/31/2017.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Trex Company (TREX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 171 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $70.57
1 Month avg volatility: $1.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.75 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.58%
Volume: 177,500 shares. 3 month avg: 240,446 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/16/2016 to 02/16/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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YuMe Inc (YUME)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 433 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $3.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.27 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.63%
Volume: 77,600 shares. 3 month avg: 53,997 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/09/2016 to 02/16/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 168 out of 613
2/16/17 close: $76.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $78.36 or 2.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.22%
Volume: 1,924,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,487,617 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 12/28/2016 to 02/16/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Thursday 2/16/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.6% or 36.87 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 472 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 293 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 179 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 121/211 or 57.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/80 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index is climbing at a good angle. It's not too steep nor too shallow.

Of course, as soon as you bet that it WILL continue, the trend will end and send you for a loss.

As the chart shows, the index has been moving up at a good clip for a week now. Let's hope it continues, but don't be surprised if the channel breaks out downward. As I mentioned in a prior post, we're due for a downtrend to begin.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,421.27    
 Monthly S1  5,620.36  199.08   
 Weekly S2  5,643.38  23.02   
 Monthly Pivot  5,681.89  38.51   
 Weekly S1  5,731.41  49.52   
 Weekly Pivot  5,737.42  6.01   
 Daily S2  5,760.78  23.36   
 Low  5,776.70  15.92   
 Open  5,777.90  1.20   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  5,790.11  12.21   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,793.99  3.88   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,799.33  5.34   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,804.66  5.34   
 Daily Pivot  5,806.03  1.37   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,819.44  13.41   
 High  5,821.95  2.51   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  5,825.45  3.50   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R2  5,831.46  6.01   
 Daily R1  5,835.36  3.90   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Daily R2  5,851.28  15.92   
 Monthly R1  5,880.98  29.70   
 Monthly R2  5,942.51  61.54   

Wednesday 2/15/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Nothing has changed on this chart over the last week. Maybe that's good news. The forecast has the Dow peaking soon, so keep that in mind.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 16% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 17%.
The fewest was 14% on 01/25/2017.
And the most was 64% on 02/16/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 518 stocks in my database are down an average of 10% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 12%.
The peak was 10% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 29% on 02/16/2016.

The above numbers show marked improvement over the prior week, not so much with the red line (a 1% point improvement) but with the blue line. A week ago, 12% of my stocks were at least 10% from their yearly highs. Now it's just 10%.

On both lines, however, it appears that this is more of a sideways move than the start of a new uptrend, I think.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/14/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.7% or 142.79 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 648 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 357 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 291 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 132/220 or 60.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/64 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index has been climbing in a channel. I show that with the twin red lines.

I know. This sounds like a broken record. All I can say is that the index will break out of the channel sooner or later. My guess is sooner. Probably downward, too.

$ $ $

I released version 5.19 of Patternz. This has two small enhancements and one bug fix.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  19,509.17    
 Weekly S2  19,942.33  433.16   
 Monthly S1  19,960.66  18.34   
 Monthly Pivot  20,129.44  168.77   
 Weekly S1  20,177.24  47.81   
 Weekly Pivot  20,237.73  60.48   
 Daily S2  20,273.67  35.94   
 Low  20,322.95  49.28   
 Open  20,338.54  15.59   
 Daily S1  20,342.91  4.38   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  20,368.23  25.31   
 50% Down from Intraday High  20,382.21  13.99   
 Daily Pivot  20,392.20  9.98   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  20,396.20  4.00   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  20,412.16  15.96   
 High  20,441.48  29.32   
 Daily R1  20,461.44  19.96   
 Weekly R1  20,472.64  11.20   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  20,510.73  38.08   
 Weekly R2  20,533.13  22.40   
 Monthly R1  20,580.93  47.81   
 Monthly R2  20,749.71  168.77   

Monday 2/13/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

The index has moved up, following a channel which I show here outlined in red.

The index touched the bottom of the channel at A but has been riding toward the top of it for a while now (an unusually long time, really).

That suggests the index is going to drop, and it will, sooner or later.

It also suggests that the index is following a narrower channel higher.

So I drew the green line from the most recent price backward in time, connecting the minor lows. Now the pattern resembles a rising wedge.

And that suggests the index will breakout downward. Sooner or later...

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 19.04 points.
Tuesday: Up 37.87 points.
Wednesday: Down 35.95 points.
Thursday: Up 118.06 points.
Friday: Up 96.97 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 197.91 points or 1.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 67.36 points or 1.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 18.6802 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.1% down from the high of 20,298.21 on 02/10/2017.
     3.0% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     0.2% down from the high of 5,743.43 on 02/10/2017.
     6.2% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 2,319.23 on 02/10/2017.
     3.2% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/10/2017, the CPI had:

2 bearish patterns,
44 bullish patterns,
418 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 95.7%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  20,164  20,217  20,257  20,310  20,351 
Weekly  19,895  20,082  20,190  20,377  20,486 
Monthly  19,462  19,865  20,082  20,486  20,702 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,307  2,312  2,315  2,320  2,324 
Weekly  2,273  2,295  2,307  2,328  2,341 
Monthly  2,232  2,274  2,297  2,339  2,362 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,706  5,720  5,732  5,746  5,758 
Weekly  5,615  5,675  5,709  5,769  5,803 
Monthly  5,393  5,563  5,653  5,824  5,914 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 42.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 4 months up 21.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks up 22.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 4 months up 28.8%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks up 26.9%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 18.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
22Triangle, symmetrical
13Channel
11Rectangle top
11Triangle, ascending
7Triangle, descending
6Head-and-shoulders top
5Rising wedge
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
5Triple top
4Dead-cat bounce

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Securities Brokerage1. Securities Brokerage
2. Insurance (Life)2. Insurance (Life)
3. Semiconductor3. Semiconductor
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
50. Electric Utility (East)50. Shoe
51. Household Products51. Electric Utility (East)
52. Retail Store52. Household Products
53. Biotechnology53. Toiletries/Cosmetics
54. Toiletries/Cosmetics54. Biotechnology
55. Short ETFs55. Short ETFs
56. Furn/Home Furnishings56. Furn/Home Furnishings
57. Apparel57. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/10/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 621 stocks searched, or 2.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISChannel      04/29/201602/09/2017Semiconductor
AKAMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/11/201702/07/2017E-Commerce
ASNAHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/19/201702/08/2017Apparel
AVPTriangle, symmetrical      01/09/201702/09/2017Toiletries/Cosmetics
BERYDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/25/201702/03/2017Packaging and Container
BBYTriangle, symmetrical      01/17/201702/06/2017Retail (Special Lines)
CNPChannel      11/15/201602/09/2017Electric Utility (Central)
CHSHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/23/201702/08/2017Apparel
ELNKPipe top      01/23/201701/30/2017Internet
NCSRectangle bottom      12/13/201602/09/2017Building Materials
OGETriangle, ascending      12/14/201602/09/2017Electric Utility (Central)
PKETriangle, symmetrical      01/03/201702/08/2017Chemical (Specialty)
SCHWBroadening wedge, ascending      11/29/201602/09/2017Securities Brokerage
SODAChannel      11/17/201602/09/2017Food Processing
TMKRectangle top      12/08/201602/09/2017Insurance (Diversified)
EWQHead-and-shoulders top      01/13/201702/03/2017Investment Co. (Foreign)
XRTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/30/201702/08/2017Retail Store
XLKRising wedge      10/25/201602/09/2017Investment Co. (Domestic)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/02/2017 and 02/09/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 29 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $62.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.33 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.24%
Volume: 320,000 shares. 3 month avg: 371,580 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 02/09/2017

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Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 123 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $63.85
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $67.05 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.24%
Volume: 4,070,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,961,177 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/11/2017 to 02/07/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 601 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $5.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.21 or 17.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.61%
Volume: 2,976,100 shares. 3 month avg: 4,588,611 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 01/19/2017 to 02/08/2017
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 09/20/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 03/21/2017.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Avon Products (AVP)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 216 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $5.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.06 or 12.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.48%
Volume: 4,254,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,109,462 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/09/2017 to 02/09/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Berry Plastics Group Inc (BERY)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 182 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $48.96
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.64 or 5.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.47%
Volume: 1,386,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,410,529 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/25/2017 to 02/03/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Best Buy Co. (BBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 69 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $44.73
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.73 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.83%
Volume: 3,702,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,567,885 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/17/2017 to 02/06/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 165 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $26.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.61 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.43%
Volume: 2,436,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,448,902 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 11/15/2016 to 02/09/2017

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Chicos FAS Inc. (CHS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 105 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $13.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.63 or 9.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.78%
Volume: 2,772,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,502,725 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 01/23/2017 to 02/08/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Earthlink, Inc (ELNK)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 556 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $5.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.17 or 6.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.48%
Volume: 649,100 shares. 3 month avg: 976,708 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/23/2017 to 01/30/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 525 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $15.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.02 or 7.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.28%
Volume: 290,100 shares. 3 month avg: 436,960 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 12/13/2016 to 02/09/2017
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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OGE Energy Corp (OGE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 245 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $34.06
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.94 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.82%
Volume: 952,200 shares. 3 month avg: 899,237 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 12/14/2016 to 02/09/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Park Electrochemical (PKE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 128 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $18.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.21 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.77%
Volume: 59,700 shares. 3 month avg: 53,189 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/03/2017 to 02/08/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Schwab, Charles Corporation (SCHW)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 58 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $40.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.85 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.55%
Volume: 7,476,300 shares. 3 month avg: 9,586,517 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 11/29/2016 to 02/09/2017
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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SodaStream International Ltd (SODA)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 19 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $45.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.99 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.26%
Volume: 201,400 shares. 3 month avg: 359,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 11/17/2016 to 02/09/2017

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Torchmark Corp (TMK)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 138 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $74.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.05 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.94%
Volume: 565,000 shares. 3 month avg: 510,782 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/08/2016 to 02/09/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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MSCI France Index (EWQ)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 326 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $24.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25.24 or 1.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.05%
Volume: 185,400 shares. 3 month avg: 628,808 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/13/2017 to 02/03/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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SPDR Retail ETF (XRT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 429 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $43.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.34 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.75%
Volume: 8,512,800 shares. 3 month avg: 6,146,015 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/30/2017 to 02/08/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SPDR Technology Select Sector (XLK)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 252 out of 613
2/9/17 close: $51.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.94 or 1.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.81%
Volume: 4,869,600 shares. 3 month avg: 9,877,488 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 10/25/2016 to 02/09/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Thursday 2/9/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.1% or 8.23 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 652 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 363 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 289 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 120/210 or 57.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/80 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index continues to rise following a channel I show outlined here in red.

The peaks at AB look like an unconfirmed double top. That means it's not a pattern until the index closes below C, the lowest price between the two peaks.

Because this is on the intraday scale, it's hard to tell if it'll confirm or not. Price will gap open either higher or lower, blowing many patterns out of the water.

However, I would say that this pattern would tend to show weakness, not strength. The above probabilities say otherwise.

$ $ $

My eye doc says that there's no sign of any retinal hemorrhage. Yippee. The three I had have mended themselves and disappeared.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,276.93    
 Monthly S1  5,479.69  202.76   
 Weekly S2  5,551.04  71.35   
 Monthly Pivot  5,574.65  23.61   
 Weekly S1  5,616.75  42.10   
 Daily S2  5,635.36  18.62   
 Weekly Pivot  5,641.79  6.43   
 Low  5,649.39  7.60   
 Daily S1  5,658.91  9.52   
 Open  5,662.95  4.04   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,663.74  0.79   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,668.17  4.43   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,672.61  4.43   
 Daily Pivot  5,672.93  0.32   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,682.45  9.52   
 High  5,686.96  4.51   
 Daily R1  5,696.48  9.52   
 Weekly R1  5,707.50  11.02   
 Daily R2  5,710.50  3.01   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  5,732.54  22.04   
 Monthly R1  5,777.41  44.87   
 Monthly R2  5,872.37  94.96   

Wednesday 2/8/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator is still bullish even though the line is low. Because the line can fluctuate for up to a week, the bearish move could change.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 17% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 17%.
The fewest was 14% on 01/25/2017.
And the most was 69% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 518 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 12%.
The peak was 10% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The readings this week are unchanged from last week.

The blue line was flat and the red line move up and then sank back down. Looks as if the market is struggling to find a new trend direction.

$ $ $

I went to an ENT today. It took me a while to figure out what that stands for: Ear, Nose and Throat. This is part of my quest to find out the cause of my spitting up a mouthful of blood back in June and again in October. Lungs were fine. The lung doc blamed the ENT.

The nurse sprayed a decongestant and anesthetic up each nostril. Then the doc came in and took over. We chatted for a bit and then he stuck this foot long tube up my nose and down my throat. Way cool.

The tube was thinner than a typical straw, probably about half the diameter of a pencil. It had a light and he looked at one end while the probe went down to my larynx. Then he yanked it out and peered partway into the other nostril.

His guess is that a nodule around my larynx, if it burst, would have been enough to cause the excessive bleeding.

No tumors or cancer or anything else found. So I'm happy.

As I was leaving I asked if losing feeling in my teeth was normal. Yup. It is. Weird feeling, though (actually, the gums are numb).

Tomorrow (Wednesday), I get to visit the eye doc to see if I've had any more eye strokes (retinal hemorrhages). We believe that's a function of high blood glucose spikes, which I've been working to diminish by cutting carbs.

$ $ $

Went for a short bicycle ride today, the first of the season. It was just over 6.5 miles long, down to a park, circled through a neighborhood and back. Nice 79 degrees today but a strong wind, 14 mph.

Legs felt weak despite continued work on my elliptical (pedaling backward to save my knees. It helps). Breathing could use some work, too. Yes, I'm a basket case, but I'm not a spring chicken any more either.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/7/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.1% or -19.04 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1283 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 664 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 619 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 131/219 or 59.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/64 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the Dow formed a rectangle top, highlighted here in red.

This was a continuation pattern, resuming the upward trend that started on Tuesday (I ignore the brief overshoot that appears entering the rectangle, hence, this is a top).

A line of support formed at A and that halted, for a time, the upward move at B. As I write this before the market open, the futures are up, so it looks like we'll see the index push through resistance, or at least attempt to do so.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  19,504.34    
 Weekly S2  19,676.18  171.84   
 Monthly S1  19,778.38  102.20   
 Weekly S1  19,864.30  85.92   
 Monthly Pivot  19,951.98  87.68   
 Daily S2  19,957.92  5.94   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  19,972.89  14.97   
 Low  20,002.81  29.92   
 Daily S1  20,005.17  2.36   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Open  20,025.61  20.44   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  20,038.01  12.40   
 50% Down from Intraday High  20,048.88  10.87   
 Daily Pivot  20,050.06  1.18   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  20,052.42  2.36   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  20,059.75  7.33   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  20,094.95  35.20   
 Daily R1  20,097.31  2.36   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  20,142.20  44.89   
 Weekly R1  20,161.01  18.81   
 Monthly R1  20,226.02  65.01   
 Weekly R2  20,269.60  43.58   
 Monthly R2  20,399.62  130.02   

Monday 2/6/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I shows a pic of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

The pattern highlighted in red is a broadening top.

Those look like megaphones. The top trendline slopes upward and the bottom one slopes downward. They breakout downward most often, 50.3% of the time.

That's random.

In this case, the index pushed upward and closed above the top trendline, staging an upward breakout. It peaked at A and started throwing back which took price down to bottom at B.

Then, the index started its recovery, to C. To me, this looks like the start of another upward run, so I adjusted Tom's Targets (top of page) to reflect this new optimism.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 122.65 points.
Tuesday: Down 107.04 points.
Wednesday: Up 26.85 points.
Thursday: Down 6.03 points.
Friday: Up 186.55 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 22.32 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 5.99 points or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 2.73 points or 0.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.3% down from the high of 20,125.58 on 01/26/2017.
     2.0% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     0.1% down from the high of 5,669.61 on 01/26/2017.
     5.0% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 2,300.99 on 01/26/2017.
     2.3% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/03/2017, the CPI had:

5 bearish patterns,
22 bullish patterns,
288 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 81.5%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  19,922  19,997  20,039  20,114  20,156 
Weekly  19,683  19,877  19,979  20,174  20,276 
Monthly  19,511  19,791  19,958  20,239  20,406 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,284  2,291  2,295  2,301  2,305 
Weekly  2,257  2,277  2,288  2,308  2,319 
Monthly  2,210  2,254  2,277  2,321  2,345 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,641  5,654  5,660  5,673  5,680 
Weekly  5,546  5,606  5,637  5,697  5,727 
Monthly  5,272  5,469  5,569  5,767  5,867 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 29.0%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 21.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 30.9%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 28.8%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 33.2%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 18.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
23Triangle, symmetrical
14Rectangle top
13Channel
12Triangle, ascending
7Triangle, descending
6Triple top
5Dead-cat bounce
5Rectangle bottom
5Head-and-shoulders top
4Rising wedge

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Securities Brokerage1. Securities Brokerage
2. Insurance (Life)2. Insurance (Life)
3. Semiconductor3. Semiconductor
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
50. Shoe50. Household Products
51. Electric Utility (East)51. Retail Store
52. Household Products52. Toiletries/Cosmetics
53. Toiletries/Cosmetics53. Biotechnology
54. Biotechnology54. Furn/Home Furnishings
55. Short ETFs55. Short ETFs
56. Furn/Home Furnishings56. Apparel
57. Apparel57. Electric Utility (East)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/3/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 29 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 621 stocks searched, or 4.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISChannel      04/29/201602/02/2017Semiconductor
AFLRectangle bottom      12/13/201601/31/2017Insurance (Diversified)
AEERoof      12/20/201601/27/2017Electric Utility (Central)
ARWBroadening top, right-angled and descending      01/13/201702/01/2017Electronics
BMIDiamond top      12/09/201602/02/2017Precision Instrument
CDITriangle, ascending      01/04/201702/01/2017Human Resources
CNPChannel      11/15/201602/02/2017Electric Utility (Central)
CIENTriangle, ascending      12/09/201602/02/2017Telecom. Equipment
CSGSDead-cat bounce      02/02/201702/02/2017IT Services
NSPChannel      11/10/201602/02/2017Human Resources
IIINPipe bottom      01/17/201701/23/2017Building Materials
IPARTriple bottom      01/09/201701/30/2017Toiletries/Cosmetics
MDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/18/201701/27/2017Retail Store
MCHXRectangle bottom      08/31/201602/02/2017Advertising
MRKTriangle, symmetrical      01/06/201702/01/2017Drug
MSRectangle top      12/06/201602/02/2017Securities Brokerage
NFGBroadening top, right-angled and descending      12/09/201602/02/2017Natural Gas (Diversified)
NCSRectangle bottom      12/13/201602/02/2017Building Materials
NEUBroadening top      12/16/201602/02/2017Chemical (Specialty)
SCHWBroadening wedge, ascending      11/29/201602/01/2017Securities Brokerage
SODAChannel      11/17/201602/02/2017Food Processing
SEBroadening top      01/09/201701/30/2017Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
AMTDTriangle, symmetrical      01/13/201702/01/2017Securities Brokerage
TPXDead-cat bounce      01/30/201701/30/2017Furn/Home Furnishings
TMKRectangle top      12/08/201602/01/2017Insurance (Diversified)
VLOHead-and-shoulders top      12/08/201601/27/2017Petroleum (Integrated)
YUMERectangle top      12/09/201602/02/2017Advertising
ITARectangle top      12/12/201602/02/2017Aerospace/Defense
IYEChannel      12/16/201602/02/2017Petroleum (Integrated)
PPATriangle, descending      12/30/201602/02/2017Aerospace/Defense

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 01/26/2017 and 02/02/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 22 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $61.28
1 Month avg volatility: $1.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.51 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.93%
Volume: 597,000 shares. 3 month avg: 372,466 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 02/02/2017

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AFLAC Inc (AFL)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 478 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $67.83
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $70.16 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.54%
Volume: 2,684,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,293,077 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 12/13/2016 to 01/31/2017
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Ameren (AEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 357 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $52.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $54.01 or 2.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.25%
Volume: 1,032,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,394,543 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof reversal pattern from 12/20/2016 to 01/27/2017
Breakout is downward 84% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 68% of the time.

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Arrow Electronics (ARW)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 199 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $73.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $69.74 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.66%
Volume: 468,000 shares. 3 month avg: 510,494 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 01/13/2017 to 02/01/2017
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Badger Meter Inc. (BMI)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 207 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $38.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $40.34 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.47%
Volume: 142,300 shares. 3 month avg: 152,877 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 12/09/2016 to 02/02/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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CDI Corp (CDI)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 26 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $8.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.95 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.89%
Volume: 26,800 shares. 3 month avg: 50,518 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 01/04/2017 to 02/01/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 225 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $26.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.00 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.29%
Volume: 3,368,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,556,015 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 11/15/2016 to 02/02/2017

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Ciena Corp (CIEN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 107 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $24.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.55 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.20%
Volume: 2,239,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,727,722 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 12/09/2016 to 02/02/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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CSG Systems International Inc (CSGS)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 434 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $39.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.52 or 26.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -19.01%
Volume: 2,088,800 shares. 3 month avg: 226,992 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/02/2017 to 02/02/2017
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Insperity (NSP)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 309 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $71.05
1 Month avg volatility: $1.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.60 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.14%
Volume: 102,100 shares. 3 month avg: 155,680 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 11/10/2016 to 02/02/2017

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Insteel Industries Inc (IIIN)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 223 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $38.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.83 or 9.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.97%
Volume: 352,700 shares. 3 month avg: 349,703 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/17/2017 to 01/23/2017
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/20/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/20/2017.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Inter Parfums Inc. (IPAR)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 359 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $34.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.54 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.12%
Volume: 45,400 shares. 3 month avg: 77,325 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 01/09/2017 to 01/30/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Macys, Inc (M)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 513 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $30.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.36 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.21%
Volume: 16,449,700 shares. 3 month avg: 7,315,243 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/18/2017 to 01/27/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Marchex, Inc (MCHX)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 567 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $2.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.91 or 8.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.51%
Volume: 176,600 shares. 3 month avg: 97,583 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 08/31/2016 to 02/02/2017
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Merck and Co., Inc. (MRK)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 226 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $64.18
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.52 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.02%
Volume: 18,572,400 shares. 3 month avg: 11,504,408 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/06/2017 to 02/01/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Morgan Stanley (MS)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 27 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $42.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.93 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.28%
Volume: 11,459,700 shares. 3 month avg: 12,381,168 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/06/2016 to 02/02/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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National Fuel Gas (NFG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 382 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $56.32
1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.98 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.56%
Volume: 564,300 shares. 3 month avg: 412,663 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 12/09/2016 to 02/02/2017
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 473 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $15.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.91 or 7.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.96%
Volume: 389,200 shares. 3 month avg: 443,729 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 12/13/2016 to 02/02/2017
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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NewMarket Corp. (NEU)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 406 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $426.08
1 Month avg volatility: $8.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $447.75 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.53%
Volume: 50,300 shares. 3 month avg: 37,409 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/16/2016 to 02/02/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Schwab, Charles Corporation (SCHW)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 59 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $39.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $42.20 or 7.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.76%
Volume: 20,290,200 shares. 3 month avg: 9,470,240 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 11/29/2016 to 02/01/2017
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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SodaStream International Ltd (SODA)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 14 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $43.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.79 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.38%
Volume: 226,100 shares. 3 month avg: 349,514 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 11/17/2016 to 02/02/2017

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Spectra Energy Corp (SE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 180 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $42.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.51 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.46%
Volume: 2,467,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,429,114 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 01/09/2017 to 01/30/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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TD AmeriTrade Holding A (AMTD)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 56 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $41.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.09 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.36%
Volume: 15,418,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,703,466 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/13/2017 to 02/01/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Tempur-pedic Intl (TPX)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 607 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $43.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.07 or 12.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -35.90%
Volume: 2,148,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,535,649 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 01/30/2017 to 01/30/2017
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Torchmark Corp (TMK)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 141 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $73.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.77 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.14%
Volume: 443,300 shares. 3 month avg: 511,365 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/08/2016 to 02/01/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Valero Energy (VLO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 145 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $65.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.32 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.24%
Volume: 6,189,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,139,426 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 12/08/2016 to 01/27/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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YuMe Inc (YUME)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 385 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $3.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.24 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.23%
Volume: 61,300 shares. 3 month avg: 59,365 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/09/2016 to 02/02/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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DJ US Aerospace and defense (ITA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 251 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $142.43
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $138.42 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.36%
Volume: 149,700 shares. 3 month avg: 320,069 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/12/2016 to 02/02/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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DJ US Energy sector (iShares) (IYE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 284 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $40.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.71 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.44%
Volume: 2,998,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,172,900 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 12/16/2016 to 02/02/2017

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PowerShares Aerospace and Defense (PPA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 270 out of 613
2/2/17 close: $41.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $42.75 or 2.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.29%
Volume: 64,900 shares. 3 month avg: 165,240 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 12/30/2016 to 02/02/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Thursday 2/2/17. As January Goes, so does Dow.

I researched whether the saying, "As January goes, so goes the Dow" is true or false. It turns out to be true 76% of the time.

However, the number is misleading. See the table.

Year
Follows
January?
Jan Up
Year Up
Jan Up
Year Down
Jan Down
Year Up
Jan Down
Year Down
76.1%53.4%10.2%13.6%22.7%

The Dow Industrials will close higher at year end 53.4% of the time when January also ends the month higher.

The Dow will close lower 22.7% of the time when January also closes down.

Combined (both up and down directions), the Dow follows January's performance 76.1% of the time.

To read the complete article, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Wednesday 2/1/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator flipped to a bearish signal three trading sessions ago. As a reminder, the signal can disappear for up to a week, so keep that in mind.

Notice that the thin blue line suggests this bearish turn does not have staying power. In other words, the line is closing in on a bullish signal by rising. If a bullish signal were to occur, the red bar would disappear and the green bar in January would remain as the current signal.

I think that scenario is likely.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 17% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 17%.
The fewest was 14% on 01/25/2017.
And the most was 69% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 518 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 12%.
The peak was 10% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The above text shows that the stocks I follow didn't budge over the past week. That's a snapshot of the week ago's numbers compared with today's. Between those two points, the lines could have waved up and down.

Both the blue and red lines on the chart were higher three days ago and dropped, ending the sample period where it began.

Based only on looking at the chart, it appears that these flat regions end with a dip before another move up. Maybe that will happen again.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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