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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 03/24/2017
20,597 -59.86 -0.3%
8,929 -7.37 -0.1%
706 3.20 0.5%
5,829 11.05 0.2%
2,344 -1.98 -0.1%
YTD
4.2%
-1.3%
7.0%
8.3%
4.7%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 03/14/2017
21,250 or 20,600 by 04/15/2017
9,500 or 8,700 by 04/15/2017
675 or 715 by 04/01/2017
5,950 or 5,650 by 04/15/2017
2,425 or 2,325 by 04/15/2017
Mutt Losers: None YTD
Mutt Winners: None YTD

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February 2016 Headlines


Archives


Monday 2/29/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the weekly scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the weekly scale.

I chose the weekly scale to highlight support and resistance for the longer term.

The bottom, red line, shows the most recent support area. I drew it under the recent low and extended it to the left.

The green line shows a consolidation region in late 2014 to early 2015. The index has successfully pushed into the bottom of this region. It could act as a support area in the future but also as resistance.

Support and resistance areas are not discreet prices but regions or areas.

The blue line shows the top of this resistance area. It could pose a challenge for the index to pierce, going forward.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 228.67 points.
Tuesday: Down 188.88 points.
Wednesday: Up 53.21 points.
Thursday: Up 212.3 points.
Friday: Down 57.32 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 247.98 points or 1.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 86.04 points or 1.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 30.27 points or 1.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.4% down from the high of 17,405.48 on 01/04/2016.
     7.7% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     6.8% down from the high of 4,926.73 on 01/05/2016.
     9.0% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     4.4% down from the high of 2,038.20 on 01/04/2016.
     7.6% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 MBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Construction spending10:00 TDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Auto & truck sales2:00 TC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FEDs Beige book2:00 W?Reports on economic conditions.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Productivity & costs8:30 ThD+Cost of producing a unit of output.
Factory orders10:00 ThD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Trade balance8:30 FC+Signals balance of exports & imports.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/26/2016, the CPI had:

6 bearish patterns,
55 bullish patterns,
357 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 90.2%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  16,515  16,577  16,687  16,749  16,859 
Weekly  15,904  16,272  16,534  16,902  17,164 
Monthly  15,020  15,830  16,313  17,123  17,606 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  1,935  1,942  1,952  1,959  1,969 
Weekly  1,862  1,905  1,934  1,977  2,006 
Monthly  1,754  1,851  1,907  2,004  2,060 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,559  4,575  4,597  4,613  4,635 
Weekly  4,352  4,471  4,545  4,664  4,738 
Monthly  4,052  4,321  4,479  4,748  4,906 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 29.6%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 51.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 29.4%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 53.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 31.5%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months down 8.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bearish.
Nasdaq Composite: bearish.
S&P 500 Index: bearish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
24Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
22Dead-cat bounce
18Head-and-shoulders bottom
18Pipe bottom
11Pipe top
10Triangle, symmetrical
8Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
7Big W
6Triple bottom
5Flag, high and tight

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Electric Utility (West)2. Electric Utility (West)
3. Household Products3. Electric Utility (Central)
4. Electric Utility (Central)4. Household Products
5. Electric Utility (East)5. Short ETFs
50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment50. Drug
51. Securities Brokerage51. Biotechnology
52. Biotechnology52. Securities Brokerage
53. Shoe53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Shoe
55. Homebuilding55. Electronics
56. Electronics56. Homebuilding
57. Retail (Special Lines)57. Retail (Special Lines)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/26/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 17 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 647 stocks searched, or 2.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 8 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 16 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AWIBroadening bottom      01/20/201602/22/2016Building Materials
BOOTFlag, high and tight      02/02/201602/23/2016Shoe
CLXTriangle, symmetrical      02/04/201602/23/2016Household Products
SCORPipe bottom      02/08/201602/16/2016Information Services
CROXChannel      01/15/201602/25/2016Shoe
CYPipe bottom      02/16/201602/16/2016Semiconductor
FEYEPipe bottom      02/08/201602/16/2016Computer Software and Svcs
TILEDead-cat bounce      02/25/201602/25/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
NVTAPipe bottom      02/08/201602/16/2016Medical Services
KATEPipe bottom      02/08/201602/16/2016Apparel
KELYARising wedge      02/03/201602/25/2016Human Resources
LXUTriangle, symmetrical      02/03/201602/25/2016Building Materials
JWNBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      01/25/201602/19/2016Retail Store
NWPXPipe bottom      02/08/201602/16/2016Building Materials
RJETFlag, high and tight      01/20/201602/25/2016Air Transport
SETriangle, symmetrical      02/02/201602/25/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SMRTTriangle, symmetrical      01/06/201602/25/2016Apparel
TECHTriangle, symmetrical      01/28/201602/25/2016Biotechnology
TSOPipe bottom      02/08/201602/16/2016Petroleum (Integrated)
ABCODead-cat bounce      02/24/201602/24/2016Information Services
TOLPipe bottom      02/08/201602/16/2016Homebuilding
FDNHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/20/201602/24/2016Internet
IYHHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/20/201602/24/2016Long ETFs
XLVHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/20/201602/24/2016Drug
SRSPipe top      02/08/201602/16/2016Short ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/18/2016 and 02/25/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Armstrong World Industries (AWI)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 537 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $40.75
1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.33 or 10.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.89%
Volume: 871,300 shares. 3 month avg: 703,911 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 01/20/2016 to 02/22/2016
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 624 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $9.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.59 or 21.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.81%
Volume: 243,200 shares. 3 month avg: 700,028 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/02/2016 to 02/23/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/12/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/12/2016 and a 38% chance by 07/12/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Clorox Co, The (CLX)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 57 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $131.45
1 Month avg volatility: $2.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $124.40 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.64%
Volume: 907,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,215,726 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/04/2016 to 02/23/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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comScore Inc (SCOR)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 511 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $42.27
1 Month avg volatility: $2.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.48 or 13.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.72%
Volume: 511,400 shares. 3 month avg: 692,512 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/08/2016 to 02/16/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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CROCS Inc (CROX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 567 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $9.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.28 or 16.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.71%
Volume: 718,100 shares. 3 month avg: 870,912 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/15/2016 to 02/25/2016

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Cypress Semiconductor (CY)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 471 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $7.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.95 or 11.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.88%
Volume: 5,378,900 shares. 3 month avg: 7,366,826 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/16/2016 to 02/16/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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FireEye Inc (FEYE)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 631 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $15.78
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.82 or 18.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.92%
Volume: 6,668,600 shares. 3 month avg: 5,729,455 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/08/2016 to 02/16/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Interface, Inc. (TILE)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 589 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $15.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.20 or 12.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.01%
Volume: 1,891,400 shares. 3 month avg: 489,657 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/25/2016 to 02/25/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Invitae Corp (NVTA)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 417 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $8.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.76 or 17.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.37%
Volume: 42,300 shares. 3 month avg: 135,840 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/08/2016 to 02/16/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Kate Spade and Company (KATE)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 141 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $19.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.82 or 13.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.57%
Volume: 1,957,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,434,755 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/08/2016 to 02/16/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Kelly Services A (KELYA)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 36 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $17.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.25 or 6.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.76%
Volume: 98,300 shares. 3 month avg: 123,669 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/03/2016 to 02/25/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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LSB Industries Inc (LXU)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 637 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $5.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.12 or 25.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.72%
Volume: 503,500 shares. 3 month avg: 678,275 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/03/2016 to 02/25/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/06/2015. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/06/2016.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 560 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $52.43
1 Month avg volatility: $2.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $56.78 or 8.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.26%
Volume: 2,834,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,184,657 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/19/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/13/2015. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/13/2016.
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Northwest Pipe Co (NWPX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 587 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $10.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.24 or 17.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.63%
Volume: 46,000 shares. 3 month avg: 81,743 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/08/2016 to 02/16/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Republic Airways Holdings (RJET)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 1 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $3.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.87 or 16.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.47%
Volume: 1,789,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,238,198 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 01/20/2016 to 02/25/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Spectra Energy Corp (SE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 178 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $28.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.07 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.18%
Volume: 4,045,200 shares. 3 month avg: 8,276,245 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/02/2016 to 02/25/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 588 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $6.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.37 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.27%
Volume: 75,800 shares. 3 month avg: 218,648 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/06/2016 to 02/25/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Techne Corporation (TECH)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 391 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $87.05
1 Month avg volatility: $3.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $79.07 or 9.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.28%
Volume: 127,700 shares. 3 month avg: 238,137 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/28/2016 to 02/25/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Tesoro Corporation (TSO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 468 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $77.75
1 Month avg volatility: $3.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.21 or 12.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -26.21%
Volume: 2,819,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,659,122 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/08/2016 to 02/16/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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The Advisory Board Company (ABCO)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 609 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $27.81
1 Month avg volatility: $1.95. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.09 or 19.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -43.94%
Volume: 2,611,500 shares. 3 month avg: 421,394 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/24/2016 to 02/24/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Toll Brothers (TOL)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 523 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $27.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.99 or 9.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.79%
Volume: 3,079,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,910,675 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/08/2016 to 02/16/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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First Trust DJ Internet ETF (FDN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 298 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $64.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.47 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.92%
Volume: 454,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,115,557 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 01/20/2016 to 02/24/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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iShares DJ US Healthcare (IYH)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 370 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $139.04
1 Month avg volatility: $2.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $132.57 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.31%
Volume: 110,600 shares. 3 month avg: 184,775 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 01/20/2016 to 02/24/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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SPDR Health Care Select Sector (XLV)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 325 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $67.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.18 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.40%
Volume: 9,496,400 shares. 3 month avg: 13,639,997 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 01/20/2016 to 02/24/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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UltraShort 2x Real Estate ProShares (SRS)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 443 out of 639
2/25/16 close: $47.78
1 Month avg volatility: $1.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $52.50 or 9.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.63%
Volume: 80,300 shares. 3 month avg: 102,692 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/08/2016 to 02/16/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thursday 2/25/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.9% or 39.03 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 270 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 180 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 90 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 66.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 99/171 or 57.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/72 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

What first struck me when I looked at this figure is the potential head-and-shoulders top chart pattern.

I show that pattern with the left shoulder (LS), head, and right shoulder (RS).

It won't become a valid head-and-shoulders until the index closes below the right armpit (line A).

If the index closes higher, as the above probabilities suggest, it would bust the head-and-shoulders and that could lead to a powerful move upward. However, for a true bust, the index needs to confirm the head-and-shoulders first before closing above the head.

If the index drops instead of rises, it could move all the way down to 4250 or so. That would likely take days. My guess is it won't drop that far.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,035.93    
 Monthly S1  4,289.27  253.34   
 Weekly S2  4,317.25  27.98   
 Daily S2  4,383.40  66.15   
 Low  4,425.72  42.32   
 Weekly S1  4,429.93  4.21   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Open  4,453.93  24.00   
 Daily S1  4,463.01  9.08   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 Monthly Pivot  4,463.10  0.09   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,472.29  9.19   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,486.68  14.39   
 Weekly Pivot  4,489.20  2.52   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,501.07  11.87   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  4,505.32  4.26   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  4,542.61  37.29   
 High  4,547.64  5.03   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  4,584.93  37.29   
 Weekly R1  4,601.88  16.95   
 Daily R2  4,627.24  25.36   
 Weekly R2  4,661.15  33.91   
 Monthly R1  4,716.44  55.29   
 Monthly R2  4,890.27  173.83   

Wednesday 2/24/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator is still bullish, as the green bar shows. It's a solid reading, meaning that the indicator won't change this signal.

A signal change can happen up to seven calendar days after a signal appears, but it's often unlikely to change after three days.

The green bar has been in existence longer than a week.

Notice that the indicator line has rounded over. That suggests the bullish signal is weakening.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 58% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 66%.
The fewest was 19% on 04/15/2015.
And the most was 69% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 544 stocks in my database are down an average of 27% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 31%.
The peak was 12% on 02/24/2015.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The indicator shows the stocks in my database have risen along with the market. The numbers confirm the chart when you compare the readings this week to a week ago.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/23/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 1.4% or 228.67 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 193 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 110 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 83 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 109/181 or 60.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 29/56 or 51.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

This chart doesn't give me much clues for direction tomorrow (Tuesday).

The two lines mark the top and bottom of today's movement. There is more support under the red line than there is resistance above the blue line. That alone suggests an upward move.

When combined with the above probabilities suggesting a higher close, that is the way to bet. But DO check the futures action before the open. That will give tell you the opening direction.

$ $ $

My garbage disposer ("in sink erator") broke this past weekend. Today, the replacement arrived so I set to work on removing the old one and hooking up the new one. It took maybe 45 minutes to complete the job.

I checked the circuit breaker both on the old disposer and on the house breaker. They were fine.

After I installed the new one, I flipped the switch and nothing happened. Uh-oh.

I looked under the sink and remembered that I still needed to plug the new unit into the wall. It works now. Phew!

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,133.07    
 Monthly S1  15,876.87  743.79   
 Weekly S2  15,882.18  5.31   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Monthly Pivot  16,194.35  312.17   
 Weekly S1  16,251.42  57.07   
 Daily S2  16,320.23  68.81   
 Weekly Pivot  16,381.63  61.40   
 Low  16,417.13  35.50   
 Open  16,417.13  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  16,470.45  53.32   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,511.53  41.08   
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,540.69  29.16   
 Daily Pivot  16,567.34  26.66   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,569.84  2.50   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  16,620.66  50.82   
 High  16,664.24  43.58   
 Daily R1  16,717.56  53.32   
 Weekly R1  16,750.87  33.31   
 Daily R2  16,814.45  63.58   
 Weekly R2  16,881.08  66.63   
 Monthly R1  16,938.15  57.07   
 Monthly R2  17,255.63  317.49   

Monday 2/22/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the index on the daily scale.

This chart is an interesting one.

A potential double bottom appears at AB. Do you know why I call it a potential double bottom?

That's because the index has to close above the top of the peak formed between the two bottoms. That means the index has to close above the line at C.

I see the index retracing a portion of the move up from the low at B before it moves up and confirms the double bottom.

That means the index will drop a bit toward B before moving above C.

I expect that to occur this coming week (starting 2/22).

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Up 222.57 points.
Wednesday: Up 257.42 points.
Thursday: Down 40.4 points.
Friday: Down 21.44 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 418.15 points or 2.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 166.92 points or 3.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 53 points or 2.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.8% down from the high of 17,405.48 on 01/04/2016.
     6.1% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     8.6% down from the high of 4,926.73 on 01/05/2016.
     7.0% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     5.9% down from the high of 2,038.20 on 01/04/2016.
     5.9% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
Existing home sales10:00 TCCounts sales of used homes.
New home sales10:00 WC+Shows sales of single-family homes.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Durable goods orders8:30 ThBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.
Gross domestic product8:30 FBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Personal income & consumption8:30 FC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 FC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Michigan sentiment10:00 FB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/19/2016, the CPI had:

7 bearish patterns,
42 bullish patterns,
606 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 85.7%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  16,227  16,310  16,360  16,443  16,493 
Weekly  15,806  16,099  16,305  16,598  16,805 
Monthly  15,057  15,724  16,118  16,786  17,179 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  1,896  1,907  1,913  1,924  1,930 
Weekly  1,847  1,883  1,907  1,942  1,966 
Monthly  1,755  1,836  1,892  1,973  2,029 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,433  4,469  4,491  4,527  4,549 
Weekly  4,305  4,404  4,476  4,576  4,648 
Monthly  4,023  4,264  4,450  4,691  4,878 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 41.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months down 7.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 40.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months down 6.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 43.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months down 8.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bearish.
Nasdaq Composite: bearish.
S&P 500 Index: bearish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
20Dead-cat bounce
15Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
15Pipe bottom
12Head-and-shoulders bottom
11Pipe top
6Triangle, symmetrical
6Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
5Broadening bottom
5Diamond bottom
4Flag, high and tight

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Short ETFs
2. Electric Utility (West)2. Electric Utility (Central)
3. Electric Utility (Central)3. Electric Utility (West)
4. Household Products4. Electric Utility (East)
5. Short ETFs5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
50. Drug50. Computers and Peripherals
51. Biotechnology51. Homebuilding
52. Securities Brokerage52. Securities Brokerage
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Biotechnology
54. Shoe54. Petroleum (Producing)
55. Electronics55. Electronics
56. Homebuilding56. Shoe
57. Retail (Special Lines)57. Retail (Special Lines)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/19/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 11 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 647 stocks searched, or 1.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 6 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADTNTriangle, symmetrical      01/22/201602/18/2016Telecom. Equipment
ALKPipe bottom      02/01/201602/08/2016Air Transport
AMEDPipe bottom      02/01/201602/08/2016Medical Services
AVATriangle, descending      02/03/201602/18/2016Electric Utility (West)
CHSTriple bottom      01/25/201602/12/2016Apparel
BOOMHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/18/201502/12/2016Metal Fabricating
FCXFlag, high and tight      01/20/201602/17/2016Metals and Mining (Div.)
ICONBroadening bottom      11/25/201502/17/2016Shoe
IVCDead-cat bounce      02/17/201602/18/2016Medical Supplies
MCHXPipe bottom      02/01/201602/08/2016Advertising
MASPipe bottom      02/08/201602/08/2016Building Materials
MLIChannel      01/19/201602/18/2016Metal Fabricating
NUSDead-cat bounce      02/12/201602/12/2016Toiletries/Cosmetics
PORPipe top      02/01/201602/08/2016Electric Utility (West)
AMTDPipe bottom      02/03/201602/11/2016Securities Brokerage
UAMPipe bottom      02/01/201602/08/2016Insurance (Life)
EWYDiamond bottom      01/22/201602/18/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/11/2016 and 02/18/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 26 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $18.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.83 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.27%
Volume: 512,800 shares. 3 month avg: 621,945 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/22/2016 to 02/18/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 303 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $72.32
1 Month avg volatility: $2.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.18 or 9.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.17%
Volume: 1,546,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,398,449 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/01/2016 to 02/08/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Amedisys Inc (AMED)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 413 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $35.84
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.15 or 10.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.85%
Volume: 352,500 shares. 3 month avg: 318,757 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/01/2016 to 02/08/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Avista (AVA)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 31 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $37.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.42 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.28%
Volume: 522,600 shares. 3 month avg: 311,402 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/03/2016 to 02/18/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Chicos FAS Inc. (CHS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 512 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $10.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.74 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.28%
Volume: 3,219,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,885,037 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 582 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $6.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.36 or 15.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.16%
Volume: 49,500 shares. 3 month avg: 73,657 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 12/18/2015 to 02/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold B (FCX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 497 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $7.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.44 or 23.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.61%
Volume: 59,717,600 shares. 3 month avg: 55,727,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 01/20/2016 to 02/17/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/11/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/11/2016 and a 38% chance by 07/11/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Iconix Brand Group Inc. (ICON)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 593 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $7.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.46 or 16.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.76%
Volume: 1,752,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,382,014 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 11/25/2015 to 02/17/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 12/28/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 03/28/2016 and a 38% chance by 06/27/2016.
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 459 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $12.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.39 or 16.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -28.87%
Volume: 3,522,600 shares. 3 month avg: 234,714 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/17/2016 to 02/18/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Marchex, Inc (MCHX)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 100 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $3.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.48 or 12.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.57%
Volume: 97,300 shares. 3 month avg: 92,331 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/01/2016 to 02/08/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Masco Corp. (MAS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 204 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $27.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.10 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.49%
Volume: 4,252,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,815,108 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/08/2016 to 02/08/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Mueller Industries Inc. (MLI)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 444 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $25.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.00 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.20%
Volume: 243,200 shares. 3 month avg: 231,846 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/19/2016 to 02/18/2016

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Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc (NUS)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 583 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $28.61
1 Month avg volatility: $1.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.75 or 14.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -24.49%
Volume: 1,639,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,173,975 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/12/2016 to 02/12/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Portland General Electric Co. (POR)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 124 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $37.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.94 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.45%
Volume: 2,181,300 shares. 3 month avg: 934,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/01/2016 to 02/08/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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TD AmeriTrade Holding A (AMTD)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 442 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $27.67
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.36 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.28%
Volume: 2,753,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,511,743 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/03/2016 to 02/11/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Universal American Financial Corp (UAM)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 370 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $6.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.53 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.57%
Volume: 62,300 shares. 3 month avg: 152,451 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/01/2016 to 02/08/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MSCI South Korea Index (EWY)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 173 out of 639
2/18/16 close: $46.87
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.18 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.64%
Volume: 2,629,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,432,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 01/22/2016 to 02/18/2016
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Thursday 2/18/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 2.2% or 98.1 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 36 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 22 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 14 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 61.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 99/170 or 58.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/72 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The red line shows overhead resistance that I believe the index will struggle to push through.

My guess is that the index will drop tomorrow (Thursday) and retrace a portion of its move higher, maybe to the gap (as the chart shows, in green), and then recover. That could all happen in one day.

But I think the strong move up of the last few days is going to need a breather.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  3,962.65    
 Weekly S2  4,211.29  248.63   
 Monthly S1  4,248.36  37.07   
 Weekly Pivot  4,371.15  122.79   
 Weekly S1  4,372.67  1.53   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S2  4,435.51  62.84   
 Low  4,463.51  28.00   
 Open  4,471.66  8.15   
 Daily S1  4,484.79  13.13   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,493.03  8.24   
 Monthly Pivot  4,495.46  2.44   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,502.15  6.68   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,511.26  9.12   
 Daily Pivot  4,512.78  1.52   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R2  4,531.01  18.22   
 Weekly R1  4,532.53  1.53   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Close  4,534.06  1.53   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly R1.
 High  4,540.78  6.72   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  4,562.06  21.28   
 Daily R2  4,590.05  28.00   
 Monthly R1  4,781.17  191.11   
 Monthly R2  5,028.27  247.11   

Wednesday 2/17/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

As the chart shows, the indicator turned bullish two trading days ago.

When I look at the chart, I wonder about the distance between signal changes. The red and green bars seem to be separated by similar amounts, at least for a while. I'm not sure what it means but it's interesting.

If there is a cycle that repeats, would could be in for several days (maybe a week) of bullish activity.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Friday, 66% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 65%.
The fewest was 19% on 04/15/2015.
And the most was 69% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 543 stocks in my database are down an average of 31% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 30%.
The peak was 12% on 02/24/2015.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The numbers say that stocks in the past week were more bearish than the previous week. I find that odd since the indices have been moving higher over the last two days. But before that, the index was falling for two weeks.

My guess is you'll see the numbers improve next week.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/16/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 2.0% or 313.66 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 79 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 37 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 42 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 53.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 109/181 or 60.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 29/55 or 52.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The chart shows what could happen to the industrials over the coming week or so. I didn't analyze it for time nor extent, only the shape.

The red line forms the right half of a possible head-and-shoulders bottom.

If this interpretation is correct, look for the index to dip to form a right shoulder and then rise.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,824.10    
 Weekly S2  15,194.03  369.93   
 Monthly S1  15,398.97  204.94   
 Weekly S1  15,583.94  184.97   
 Daily S2  15,597.41  13.48   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  15,691.62  94.21   
 Open  15,691.62  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  15,785.63  94.01   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,799.50  13.88   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,832.83  33.33   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,866.16  33.33   
 Daily Pivot  15,879.83  13.68   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  15,892.91  13.08   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  15,973.84  80.93   
 High  15,974.04  0.20   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot  16,025.43  51.39   
 Daily R1  16,068.05  42.62   
 Daily R2  16,162.25  94.21   
 Weekly R1  16,282.82  120.56   
 Weekly R2  16,591.79  308.98   
 Monthly R1  16,600.30  8.51   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  17,226.76  626.46   

Friday 2/12/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 28 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 647 stocks searched, or 4.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 20 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bearish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACNPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016IT Services
AFGPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BZHDead-cat bounce      02/05/201602/05/2016Homebuilding
BGDead-cat bounce      02/11/201602/11/2016Food Processing
CTSHPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016IT Services
CSCDead-cat bounce      02/10/201602/10/2016Computer Software and Svcs
CTSPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016Electronics
DRQPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
RDENDead-cat bounce      02/05/201602/05/2016Toiletries/Cosmetics
EMCTriangle, symmetrical      01/19/201602/11/2016Computers and Peripherals
EGNPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016Natural Gas (Diversified)
ESLDead-cat bounce      02/05/201602/05/2016Precision Instrument
FFGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/29/201602/10/2016Insurance (Life)
BGCDead-cat bounce      02/11/201602/11/2016Computers and Peripherals
GNWDead-cat bounce      02/05/201602/05/2016Insurance (Life)
HGGChannel      01/11/201602/11/2016Retail (Special Lines)
INCYDead-cat bounce      02/11/201602/11/2016Drug
MRKChannel      12/03/201502/11/2016Drug
MWWDead-cat bounce      02/11/201602/11/2016Advertising
MLIChannel      01/19/201602/11/2016Metal Fabricating
MYLDead-cat bounce      02/11/201602/11/2016Drug
OTEXBroadening top, right-angled and descending      12/01/201502/09/2016E-Commerce
RTNTriangle, ascending      01/29/201602/10/2016Aerospace/Defense
SMTCPipe top      02/01/201602/01/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TKRFlag      02/05/201602/11/2016Metal Fabricating
TGRising wedge      01/14/201602/09/2016Chemical (Specialty)
VFCPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016Apparel
XLNXPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
SDSPipe bottom      01/25/201602/01/2016Short ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/04/2016 and 02/11/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accenture plc (ACN)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 205 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $93.43
1 Month avg volatility: $2.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $98.96 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -10.59%
Volume: 4,202,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,057,909 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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American Financial Group (AFG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 184 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $65.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.42 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.63%
Volume: 317,300 shares. 3 month avg: 351,023 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 623 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $6.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.36 or 28.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -43.26%
Volume: 1,615,400 shares. 3 month avg: 954,185 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/05/2016 to 02/05/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Bunge Ltd (BG)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 544 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $47.79
1 Month avg volatility: $2.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.82 or 27.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -30.01%
Volume: 5,527,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,367,926 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/11/2016 to 02/11/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (CTSH)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 399 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $52.11
1 Month avg volatility: $1.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $56.45 or 8.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.18%
Volume: 5,627,300 shares. 3 month avg: 4,507,328 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Computer Sciences Corp (CSC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 622 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $27.05
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.00 or 10.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -17.23%
Volume: 4,211,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,077,572 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/10/2016 to 02/10/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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CTS Corp (CTS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 470 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $13.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.61 or 9.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -24.21%
Volume: 54,000 shares. 3 month avg: 90,943 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Dril-Quip Inc (DRQ)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 361 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $49.90
1 Month avg volatility: $2.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.86 or 11.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.75%
Volume: 948,400 shares. 3 month avg: 502,925 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Elizabeth Arden Inc (RDEN)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 565 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $5.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.18 or 23.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -41.31%
Volume: 160,300 shares. 3 month avg: 148,874 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/05/2016 to 02/05/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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EMC Corporation (EMC)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 190 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $24.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.02 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.92%
Volume: 21,624,300 shares. 3 month avg: 13,417,529 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/19/2016 to 02/11/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Energen Corp (EGN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 608 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $24.67
1 Month avg volatility: $2.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.67 or 24.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -39.81%
Volume: 3,995,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,426,626 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Esterline Technologies Corp. (ESL)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 554 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $52.52
1 Month avg volatility: $3.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.66 or 13.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -35.16%
Volume: 352,000 shares. 3 month avg: 301,743 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/05/2016 to 02/05/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 145 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $56.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.52 or 9.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.85%
Volume: 46,600 shares. 3 month avg: 38,645 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/29/2016 to 02/10/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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General Cable (BGC)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 620 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $6.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.28 or 55.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -50.86%
Volume: 2,348,000 shares. 3 month avg: 526,955 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/11/2016 to 02/11/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 630 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $1.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.22 or 38.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -56.84%
Volume: 8,936,200 shares. 3 month avg: 9,966,423 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/05/2016 to 02/05/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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hhgregg, Inc (HGG)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 627 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $1.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.13 or 26.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -58.20%
Volume: 176,600 shares. 3 month avg: 171,546 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/11/2016 to 02/11/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/06/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/06/2016 and a 38% chance by 07/06/2016.

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Incyte Corp. (INCY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 550 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $65.51
1 Month avg volatility: $6.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.13 or 20.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -39.59%
Volume: 15,389,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,285,574 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/11/2016 to 02/11/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Merck and Co., Inc. (MRK)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 302 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $48.85
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.07 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.52%
Volume: 11,086,700 shares. 3 month avg: 11,533,837 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 12/03/2015 to 02/11/2016

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Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 626 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $2.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.32 or 59.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -52.53%
Volume: 10,503,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,324,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/11/2016 to 02/11/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Mueller Industries Inc. (MLI)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 357 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $25.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.43 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.05%
Volume: 326,000 shares. 3 month avg: 220,528 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/19/2016 to 02/11/2016

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Mylan Laboratories Inc. (MYL)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 430 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $41.42
1 Month avg volatility: $2.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.79 or 17.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -23.40%
Volume: 33,288,500 shares. 3 month avg: 7,266,194 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/11/2016 to 02/11/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Open Text Corp (OTEX)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 91 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $46.75
1 Month avg volatility: $1.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.86 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.46%
Volume: 492,700 shares. 3 month avg: 283,212 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 12/01/2015 to 02/09/2016
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 33 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $122.18
1 Month avg volatility: $3.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $113.87 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.89%
Volume: 3,912,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,059,586 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 01/29/2016 to 02/10/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Semtech Corp (SMTC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 170 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $15.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.47 or 15.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.70%
Volume: 310,200 shares. 3 month avg: 555,788 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/01/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Timken Co., The (TKR)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 284 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $28.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.30 or 10.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.71%
Volume: 965,300 shares. 3 month avg: 847,678 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/05/2016 to 02/11/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Tredegar Corp (TG)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 387 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $12.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.71 or 10.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.96%
Volume: 25,600 shares. 3 month avg: 89,263 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/14/2016 to 02/09/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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V. F. Corp (VFC)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 415 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $56.81
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.73 or 6.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.74%
Volume: 2,660,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,943,246 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Xilinx Inc (XLNX)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 48 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $47.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $50.30 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.60%
Volume: 3,262,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,919,963 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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S and P short 2x ProShares (SDS)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 16 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $24.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.30 or 8.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.48%
Volume: 26,110,600 shares. 3 month avg: 14,929,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 2/11/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.3% or 14.83 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 596 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 327 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 269 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 99/169 or 58.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/72 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The red line shows support. I drew that by connecting the bottoms of recent price movement in the index.

The green line shows overhead resistance, drawn connecting the peaks.

Of the two lines, the green one is more important. Why? Because it is longer and has more touches.

It could be that the index drops in the morning but rebounds thereafter. If the index opens higher, then that could signal a move higher that will last and punch through the top trendline.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  3,894.56    
 Monthly S1  4,089.08  194.51   
 Weekly S2  4,137.07  47.99   
 Weekly S1  4,210.33  73.26   
 Daily S2  4,222.42  12.09   
 Daily S1  4,253.01  30.58   
 Low  4,280.73  27.72   
 Close  4,283.59  2.86   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  4,311.31  27.72   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,314.69  3.37   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  4,318.28  3.59   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,325.17  6.90   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,335.66  10.49   
 Daily R1  4,341.90  6.23   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  4,369.62  27.72   
 Daily R2  4,400.20  30.58   
 Weekly Pivot  4,423.63  23.43   
 Weekly R1  4,496.89  73.26   
 Monthly Pivot  4,507.90  11.01   
 Monthly R1  4,702.42  194.51   
 Weekly R2  4,710.19  7.77   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  5,121.24  411.05   

Wednesday 2/10/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator flipped to red, bearish, a few day ago.

If you can see the indicator line, it's above zero, suggesting that there is more room for the index to drop.

All of this could mean that we'll see the index drop to form an unconfirmed double bottom. Unconfirmed means the index still needs to rise above the peak between the two bottoms.

If you look at the Nasdaq composite, you'll see that it already has moved below where the second bottom should reside. So there is weakness out there.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 67% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 60%.
The fewest was 19% on 04/15/2015.
And the most was 68% on 01/20/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 544 stocks in my database are down an average of 31% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 28%.
The peak was 12% on 02/24/2015.
And the bottom was 31% on 01/20/2016.

Notice that the above numbers this week are worse than they were last week.

In other words, your investment portfolio likely lost money in the past week.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/9/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -1.1% or -177.92 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 300 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 140 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 160 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 53.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 109/181 or 60.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/54 or 51.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The chart shows a double bottom shown as valleys AB. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the horizontal red line C.

Now look at the green line that slopes downward. That is overhead resistance. I've avoided taking trades because of such resistance. My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the index will close lower, in part because of that resistance.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,339.44    
 Monthly S1  15,183.25  843.80   
 Weekly S2  15,575.63  392.38   
 Daily S2  15,648.74  73.11   
 Weekly S1  15,801.34  152.60   
 Low  15,803.55  2.21   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  15,837.90  34.35   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,934.94  97.05   
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,975.53  40.59   
 Daily Pivot  15,992.70  17.17   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,016.12  23.41   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  16,027.05  10.93   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  16,147.51  120.46   
 High  16,147.51  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  16,156.16  8.65   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  16,181.86  25.70   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Monthly Pivot  16,294.36  112.51   
 Daily R2  16,336.66  42.30   
 Weekly R1  16,381.87  45.21   
 Weekly R2  16,736.69  354.82   
 Monthly R1  17,138.17  401.48   
 Monthly R2  18,249.28  1,111.12   

Monday 2/8/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

The index has made a flag. I show that between the two red lines.

Most times, flags in a downtrend breakout downward. Whether that will happen is anyone's guess.

$ $ $

I was asked by R. Scott Braley to comment about what is happening in the markets.

My personal view is that we hit bottom in mid January and the markets are now recovering. It is possible that the indices will turn back down to form a double bottom. No one knows the direction the market will take, including me, so everyone is guessing.

The day to day move in the indices is volatile based on how the market think about these subjects.

  • The US economy (it has weakened recently)
  • The Chinese economy (it is not growing as fast as it used to, some would say by design as they shift to a more internal consumer driven economy)
  • Earnings (it's earnings season)
  • Oil (the market hates a falling price of oil. Consumers love it).
  • The US dollar (it's been strong against other currencies, making our exports more expensive)
  • World events (the markets will react to events accordingly).
  • Other (like US economic reports and other domestic events)

I am 35% in cash and own several utility companies, so my portfolio is holding up well. I have a shopping list of stocks that once they report earnings and the market reacts to them, I may (or may not) buy them.

Many stocks are down 50% or more from their yearly highs, so they are bargains. Whether they will recover anytime soon is the challenge we all face.

Unfortunately, the main drivers today are the price of oil, weakening Chinese economy, and a strong US dollar. Those problems won't go away anytime soon. That means continue volatility and a market unable to trend. Even swing trading will be difficult in this environment. I thought we might see a V-bottom, but it looks more like an extended V-bottom.

Trade carefully.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 17.12 points.
Tuesday: Down 295.64 points.
Wednesday: Up 183.12 points.
Thursday: Up 79.92 points.
Friday: Down 211.61 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 261.33 points or 1.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 250.81 points or 5.4%.
The S&P 500 index was down 60.19 points or 3.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.9% down from the high of 17,405.48 on 01/04/2016.
     4.9% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     11.4% down from the high of 4,926.73 on 01/05/2016.
     1.2% up from the low of 4,313.39 on 01/20/2016.
S&P 500
     7.8% down from the high of 2,038.20 on 01/04/2016.
     3.7% up from the low of 1,812.29 on 01/20/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Wholesale inventories10:00 TD-Wholesale sales and inventory statistics.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Treasury budget2:00 WDTracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing).
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
International trade8:30 FC+Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others.
Retail sales8:30 FA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
Business inventories10:00 FC-Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  15,959  16,082  16,253  16,376  16,547 
Weekly  15,635  15,920  16,215  16,500  16,796 
Monthly  14,399  15,302  16,354  17,257  18,309 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  1,848  1,864  1,889  1,905  1,929 
Weekly  1,825  1,852  1,900  1,927  1,975 
Monthly  1,684  1,782  1,910  2,008  2,136 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,259  4,311  4,402  4,454  4,545 
Weekly  4,164  4,263  4,450  4,550  4,737 
Monthly  3,921  4,142  4,534  4,755  5,148 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.3%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months down 7.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.1%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months down 6.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.7%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months down 8.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bearish.
Nasdaq Composite: bearish.
S&P 500 Index: bearish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
52Pipe bottom
17Dead-cat bounce
8Broadening top
8Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
5Triangle, symmetrical
5Broadening bottom
4Diamond bottom
3Rectangle bottom
3Triangle, descending
3Flag, high and tight

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Short ETFs1. Short ETFs
2. Electric Utility (Central)2. Electric Utility (West)
3. Electric Utility (West)3. Electric Utility (Central)
4. Electric Utility (East)4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Electric Utility (East)
50. Computers and Peripherals50. Computers and Peripherals
51. Homebuilding51. Securities Brokerage
52. Securities Brokerage52. Biotechnology
53. Biotechnology53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
55. Electronics55. Electronics
56. Shoe56. Shoe
57. Retail (Special Lines)57. Retail (Special Lines)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 2/5/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 647 stocks searched, or 2.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 4 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABAXDead-cat bounce      01/29/201601/29/2016Medical Supplies
BCPCPipe bottom      01/19/201601/25/2016Chemical (Specialty)
CENXFlag, high and tight      01/14/201602/04/2016Metals and Mining (Div.)
CCKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/20/201602/04/2016Packaging and Container
^DJTBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      01/25/201602/04/2016None
DOWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/20/201601/29/2016Chemical (Basic)
DDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/20/201601/29/2016Chemical (Basic)
GPNDiamond bottom      01/14/201602/04/2016Computer Software and Svcs
HOLXDiamond bottom      01/15/201602/04/2016Medical Supplies
DHITriangle, symmetrical      01/13/201602/01/2016Homebuilding
IDXXPipe bottom      01/19/201601/25/2016Drug
IDTIDead-cat bounce      02/02/201602/02/2016Semiconductor
MANHBroadening bottom      01/12/201602/03/2016IT Services
MLMTriangle, ascending      01/19/201602/04/2016Cement and Aggregates
MTRXDead-cat bounce      02/04/201602/04/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
MRKChannel      12/03/201502/04/2016Drug
MONTriangle, descending      01/20/201602/03/2016Chemical (Diversified)
RLDead-cat bounce      02/04/201602/04/2016Apparel
SEEPipe bottom      01/19/201601/25/2016Packaging and Container
SWCPipe bottom      01/19/201601/25/2016Metals and Mining (Div.)
VVUSRectangle bottom      12/07/201502/04/2016Biotechnology
WRBTriple bottom      01/20/201602/03/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 01/28/2016 and 02/04/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abaxis Inc (ABAX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 381 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $41.28
1 Month avg volatility: $2.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.46 or 12.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -25.87%
Volume: 223,000 shares. 3 month avg: 185,798 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 01/29/2016 to 01/29/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Balchem Corp (BCPC)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 103 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $63.49
1 Month avg volatility: $2.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.59 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.42%
Volume: 53,000 shares. 3 month avg: 132,448 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/19/2016 to 01/25/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 584 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $4.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.54 or 28.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.44%
Volume: 4,537,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,928,682 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 01/14/2016 to 02/04/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/07/2015. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/05/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Crown Holdings Inc (CCK)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 227 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $47.93
1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.28 or 16.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.46%
Volume: 2,236,300 shares. 3 month avg: 796,320 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/20/2016 to 02/04/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ 20 Transportation (^DJT)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
2/4/16 close: $7,051.25
1 Month avg volatility: $185.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7,430.50 or 5.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.09%
Volume: 22,183,500 shares. 3 month avg: 19,608,149 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/04/2016
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Dow Chemical (DOW)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 137 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $47.39
1 Month avg volatility: $1.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.76 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.94%
Volume: 13,177,300 shares. 3 month avg: 11,811,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/20/2016 to 01/29/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dupont (DD)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 64 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $59.10
1 Month avg volatility: $2.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.42 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.26%
Volume: 5,948,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,304,072 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/20/2016 to 01/29/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Global Payments Inc (GPN)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 116 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $57.69
1 Month avg volatility: $2.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.72 or 8.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.57%
Volume: 1,055,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,073,503 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 01/14/2016 to 02/04/2016
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Hologic Inc (HOLX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 376 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $35.17
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.40 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.10%
Volume: 1,296,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,519,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 01/15/2016 to 02/04/2016
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Horton, D.R. Inc. (DHI)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 285 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $25.67
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.19 or 9.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.86%
Volume: 5,848,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,748,315 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/13/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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IDEXX Laboratories, Inc (IDXX)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 197 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $71.78
1 Month avg volatility: $1.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $67.30 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.56%
Volume: 279,000 shares. 3 month avg: 667,328 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/19/2016 to 01/25/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Integrated Device Technology (IDTI)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 235 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $18.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $21.11 or 12.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -29.07%
Volume: 4,327,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,333,432 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/02/2016 to 02/02/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Manhattan Associates (MANH)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 403 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $53.72
1 Month avg volatility: $2.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.35 or 10.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.82%
Volume: 501,000 shares. 3 month avg: 612,377 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 01/12/2016 to 02/03/2016
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Martin Marietta Materials, Inc (MLM)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 495 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $124.41
1 Month avg volatility: $5.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $111.79 or 10.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.91%
Volume: 1,428,600 shares. 3 month avg: 953,883 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 01/19/2016 to 02/04/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Matrix Service Co. (MTRX)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 298 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $17.06
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.45 or 19.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.94%
Volume: 542,200 shares. 3 month avg: 216,577 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/04/2016 to 02/04/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Merck and Co., Inc. (MRK)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 394 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $48.59
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.67 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.01%
Volume: 20,609,200 shares. 3 month avg: 11,296,482 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 12/03/2015 to 02/04/2016

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Monsanto Co (MON)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 238 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $95.32
1 Month avg volatility: $2.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $100.07 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.25%
Volume: 9,526,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,835,855 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 01/20/2016 to 02/03/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 483 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $89.95
1 Month avg volatility: $4.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $113.02 or 25.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -19.31%
Volume: 10,823,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,405,652 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/04/2016 to 02/04/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Sealed Air Corp (SEE)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 471 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $41.64
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.16 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.64%
Volume: 3,343,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,936,975 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/19/2016 to 01/25/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 450 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $6.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.68 or 15.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.59%
Volume: 3,257,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,600,152 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/19/2016 to 01/25/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Vivus Inc (VVUS)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 418 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $1.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.17 or 12.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.96%
Volume: 576,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,390,915 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 12/07/2015 to 02/04/2016
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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W. R. Berkley Corp (WRB)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 275 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $50.52
1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.81 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.73%
Volume: 644,200 shares. 3 month avg: 563,089 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 01/20/2016 to 02/03/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Thursday 2/4/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.3% or -12.71 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 476 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 251 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 225 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 98/168 or 58.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/72 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index made a terrific looking double bottom at AB. This confirmed at C (red line) when the index closed above the red line.

A throwback appears at D, which also completed. The index now appears to be moving up. Thus, I expect a higher close tomorrow (Thursday).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  3,841.27    
 Monthly S1  4,172.76  331.48   
 Weekly S2  4,355.45  182.69   
 Daily S2  4,369.16  13.71   
 Low  4,424.47  55.31   
 Weekly S1  4,429.84  5.37   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  4,436.70  6.86   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,471.40  34.70   
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,485.90  14.50   
 Daily Pivot  4,492.01  6.11   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,500.39  8.38   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  4,504.24  3.85   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  4,521.90  17.66   
 Open  4,543.82  21.92   
 High  4,547.32  3.50   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  4,559.55  12.23   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  4,596.29  36.74   
 Daily R2  4,614.86  18.57   
 Monthly Pivot  4,644.87  30.01   
 Weekly R2  4,688.35  43.47   
 Monthly R1  4,976.36  288.01   
 Monthly R2  5,448.47  472.12   

Wednesday 2/3/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator shifted to bearish with today's market rout. My guess is that if tomorrow has a good day, this sell signal will disappear.

I'm bullish and think we've made a turn, so I'm looking to buy new positions or add to existing ones.

On Monday, I talked about the utility index leading the way higher. You should see it now.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 60% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 66%.
The fewest was 19% on 04/15/2015.
And the most was 68% on 01/20/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 544 stocks in my database are down an average of 28% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 31%.
The peak was 12% on 02/24/2015.
And the bottom was 31% on 01/20/2016.

The chart shows convergence, where the index has followed the indicator higher. That's good news for bulls, I think.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 2/2/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.1% or -17.12 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1260 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 653 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 607 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 109/180 or 60.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/54 or 51.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The red line is a trendline connecting the recent lows. It is a support line, suggesting more upward move coming.

The LHR pattern is a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. The left shoulder is almost invisible. The head label hits the trendline. Sorry about that. The neckline is green and it signals a buy when the index closes above it.

This head-and-shoulders acts as a continuation pattern, not a reversal. That's rare. It also suggests an upward move.

Right now, it appears the index is throwing back to the breakout price. We'll have to see tomorrow if the index turns back up.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,250.46    
 Monthly S1  15,349.82  1,099.36   
 Weekly S2  15,657.15  307.33   
 Weekly S1  16,053.17  396.01   
 Daily S2  16,208.37  155.20   
 Weekly Pivot  16,259.73  51.37   
 Low  16,299.47  39.74   
 Daily S1  16,328.77  29.30   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,380.27  51.49   
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,405.22  24.96   
 Daily Pivot  16,419.88  14.65   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,430.18  10.31   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  16,449.18  19.00   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  16,453.63  4.45   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  16,510.98  57.35   
 Daily R1  16,540.28  29.30   
 Monthly Pivot  16,549.92  9.64   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  16,631.39  81.47   
 Weekly R1  16,655.75  24.36   
 Weekly R2  16,862.31  206.57   
 Monthly R1  17,649.28  786.97   
 Monthly R2  18,849.38  1,200.10   

Monday 2/1/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utility index on the daily scale.

This year, the index has been leading the way higher, as the chart shows.

It's the only index in positive territory, year-to-date.

I drew a red trendline, A, connecting the peaks. The line slopes downward.

What's interesting is that the index has pierced that trendline with seeming ease, at B.

The trendline is a known resistance area, but the index didn't see to have any problem with that. The key is that the index has to continue moving up.

For that, we will have to see if it has any follow-through.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 208.29 points.
Tuesday: Up 282.01 points.
Wednesday: Down 222.77 points.
Thursday: Up 125.18 points.
Friday: Up 396.66 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 372.79 points or 2.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 22.77 points or 0.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 33.34 points or 1.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.4% down from the high of 17,405.48 on 01/04/2016.
     6.6% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     6.3% down from the high of 4,926.73 on 01/05/2016.
     7.0% up from the low of 4,313.39 on 01/20/2016.
S&P 500
     4.8% down from the high of 2,038.20 on 01/04/2016.
     7.1% up from the low of 1,812.29 on 01/20/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 MC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Personal income & consumption8:30 MC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Construction spending10:00 MDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Auto & truck sales2:00 TC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Productivity & costs8:30 ThD+Cost of producing a unit of output.
Factory orders10:00 ThD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Trade balance8:30 FC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
Consumer credit3:00 FD-Measures auto, credit card and other debt.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 01/29/2016, the CPI had:

0 bearish patterns,
201 bullish patterns,
314 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 100.0%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  15,965  16,216  16,341  16,592  16,717 
Weekly  15,663  16,065  16,265  16,667  16,868 
Monthly  14,256  15,361  16,556  17,661  18,855 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  1,879  1,909  1,925  1,956  1,971 
Weekly  1,850  1,895  1,918  1,963  1,985 
Monthly  1,675  1,808  1,945  2,077  2,214 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,477  4,546  4,580  4,648  4,682 
Weekly  4,392  4,503  4,558  4,669  4,725 
Monthly  3,878  4,246  4,681  5,049  5,485 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 29.8%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 10.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 29.7%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 10.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 31.7%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 15.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bearish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bearish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
12Dead-cat bounce
11Pipe bottom
10Head-and-shoulders top
8Broadening top
8Triangle, symmetrical
5Pipe top
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
5Broadening bottom
4Double Top, Adam and Adam
4Triple top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Short ETFs1. Short ETFs
2. Electric Utility (West)2. Electric Utility (Central)
3. Electric Utility (Central)3. Electric Utility (West)
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Electric Utility (East)
5. Electric Utility (East)5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
50. Computers and Peripherals50. Biotechnology
51. Securities Brokerage51. Securities Brokerage
52. Biotechnology52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Computers and Peripherals
54. Trucking/Transp. Leasing54. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
55. Electronics55. Petroleum (Producing)
56. Shoe56. Shoe
57. Retail (Special Lines)57. Retail (Special Lines)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.