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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 11/21/2017
23,591 160.50 0.7%
9,615 92.77 1.0%
758 2.01 0.3%
6,862 71.77 1.1%
2,599 16.89 0.7%
YTD
19.4%
6.3%
14.9%
27.5%
16.1%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 11/14/2017
23,700 or 22,800 by 12/01/2017
9,300 or 9,800 by 12/01/2017
800 or 750 by 12/01/2017
7,000 or 6,500 by 12/01/2017
2,625 or 2,540 by 12/01/2017

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February 2014 Headlines


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Thursday 2/27/14. Trading Thursday: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.1% or 4.47 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 614 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 341 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 273 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 57/94 or 60.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/46 or 50.0% of the time.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale from Tuesday's and Wednesday's trading.

A falling wedge appears at B, in blue. The target for this pattern is the top of it, which the index easily met at the open.

In today's (Wednesday's) session, a complex head-and-shoulders top appears. I called it a complex H&S top instead of a double top because of the symmetry of the two shoulders (LS and RS). The pattern confirms as a valid one at A, when it closes below the neckline. Also, a horizontal or near horizontal neckline (as in this case) is one key ingredient of complex head-and-shoulders patterns. That's not always true, but it's a good clue that you've picked a good pattern.

This easily met the target (approximately the height of the pattern projected downward from the breakout point, A).

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2014 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  3,865.04    
 Monthly S1  4,078.55  213.51   
 Monthly Pivot  4,181.70  103.15   
 Weekly S2  4,209.79  28.09   
 Weekly S1  4,250.92  41.14   
 Daily S2  4,257.53  6.60   
 Weekly Pivot  4,267.89  10.36   
 Daily S1  4,274.79  6.91   
 Low  4,278.54  3.75   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Close  4,292.06  13.52   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,293.16  1.10   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  4,295.81  2.64   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,297.68  1.87   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  4,300.45  2.77   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,302.20  1.75   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  4,309.02  6.83   
 Daily R1  4,313.07  4.05   
 High  4,316.82  3.75   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R2  4,325.99  9.17   
 Daily R2  4,334.09  8.10   
 Monthly R1  4,395.21  61.12   
 Monthly R2  4,498.36  103.15   

Tuesday 2/25/14. Trading Tuesday: Dow

The index climbed by 0.6% or 103.84 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 804 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 445 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 359 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 66/101 or 65.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 20/34 or 58.8% of the time.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale from Monday's trading.

A symmetrical triangle appears at A. The breakout is downward, but what I find interesting is support or resistance at the triangle's apex. That where the two red trendlines join.

I would expect to see resistance at B but it didn't appear. Price just sailed right through with barely a pause for breath. It's possible that I didn't draw the pattern as accurately as I could have. Thus, the triangle may have exhibited resistance at the peak below C.

Looking to tomorrow, will the index find support at the blue line? Originally I thought yes, but then I saw it blow through resistance at B. Now, I'm not so sure.

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2014 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,842.90    
 Monthly S1  15,525.02  682.12   
 Weekly S2  15,927.35  402.33   
 Daily S2  16,005.38  78.03   
 Monthly Pivot  16,022.81  17.43   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Weekly S1  16,067.25  44.44   
 Low  16,102.27  35.02   
 Open  16,102.27  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  16,106.26  3.99   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  16,146.48  40.22   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,177.82  31.33   
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,201.16  23.34   
 Daily Pivot  16,203.15  2.00   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  16,207.14  3.99   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,224.49  17.35   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  16,286.38  61.88   
 High  16,300.04  13.66   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R1  16,304.03  3.99   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R2  16,365.61  61.58   
 Daily R2  16,400.92  35.31   
 Monthly R1  16,704.93  304.01   
 Monthly R2  17,202.72  497.79   

Monday 2/24/14. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the chart of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

The index is showing a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern.

The pattern has not confirmed as valid yet. Why? Because the index has to close above the red neckline. That hasn't happened yet. The neckline joins the two armpits.

When the neckline slopes downward, as in this case, you can buy once the index (or stock) closes above the line. If the line were to slope upward, then buy when price closes above the right armpit. You do that because steep sloping necklines may never cross price. Entering when price closes above the armpit gives a better entry price.

The pattern suggests that next week will see the index move higher. That's a guess because as I said, the pattern hasn't confirmed yet. It could be just squiggles on the price chart.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following are economic reports that moved the markets last week. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Saturday: Up 126.8 points.
Tuesday: Down 23.99 points.
Wednesday: Down 89.84 points.
Thursday: Up 92.67 points.
Friday: Down 29.93 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 75.71 points or 0.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 22.74 points or 0.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 2.38 points or 0.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.8% down from the high of 16,573.07 on 01/02/2014.
     5.0% up from the low of 15,340.69 on 02/05/2014.
Nasdaq
     0.5% down from the high of 4,284.85 on 02/21/2014.
     7.4% up from the low of 3,968.19 on 02/05/2014.
S&P 500
     0.8% down from the high of 1,850.84 on 01/15/2014.
     5.7% up from the low of 1,737.92 on 02/05/2014.

Top

Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
New home sales10:00 WC+Shows sales of single-family homes.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Durable goods orders8:30 ThBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.
Gross domestic product8:30 FBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 FBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Michigan sentiment9:55 FB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/21/2014, the CPI had:

3 bearish patterns,
20 bullish patterns,
308 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 87.0%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  16,032  16,067  16,130  16,166  16,228 
Weekly  15,893  15,998  16,112  16,217  16,331 
Monthly  14,808  15,456  15,988  16,636  17,168 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  1,829  1,833  1,839  1,843  1,850 
Weekly  1,813  1,825  1,836  1,848  1,859 
Monthly  1,696  1,766  1,808  1,878  1,919 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,247  4,255  4,270  4,278  4,293 
Weekly  4,200  4,232  4,258  4,290  4,316 
Monthly  3,855  4,059  4,172  4,376  4,489 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 30.9%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 53.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 28.7%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 53.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks up 21.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 49.0%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bullish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
26Pipe bottom
13Triangle, symmetrical
8Broadening top
7Rectangle top
6Double Top, Adam and Adam
6Broadening bottom
6Head-and-shoulders top
6Triangle, descending
5Head-and-shoulders bottom
5Diamond top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Biotechnology1. Biotechnology
2. Internet2. Internet
3. Drug3. Cement and Aggregates
4. Cement and Aggregates4. Drug
5. Information Services5. Homebuilding
50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment50. Electric Utility (West)
51. Food Processing51. Food Processing
52. Toiletries/Cosmetics52. Retail (Special Lines)
53. Retail (Special Lines)53. Toiletries/Cosmetics
54. Short ETFs54. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Thursday 2/20/14. Trading Thursday: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.8% or -34.83 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 225 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 109 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.4% on 116 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 51.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 57/94 or 60.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/45 or 51.1% of the time.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale from Tuesday's and Wednesday's trading.

The chart shows a double top chart pattern at AB. This confirms as a valid pattern when the index closes below the horizontal red line, at C. That red line marks the lowest valley between the two peaks. The height of the pattern projected downward from the breakout price (C) gives what's called the measure rule. It defines a price target. The index reached the target easily enough.

As the index dropped, it found support at D, but only for a time. When it reached D again after 3:00, the index kept going down without pausing. A longer time scale is needed to see if price at the close is resting on support or not.

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2014 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  3,872.54    
 Monthly S1  4,055.24  182.71   
 Weekly S2  4,082.35  27.11   
 Monthly Pivot  4,150.90  68.55   
 Weekly S1  4,160.15  9.25   
 Weekly Pivot  4,200.41  40.26   
 Daily S2  4,206.30  5.89   
 Daily S1  4,222.12  15.83   
 Low  4,232.38  10.26   
 Close  4,237.95  5.57   
 Daily Pivot  4,248.21  10.26   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,248.39  0.18   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,253.33  4.95   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,258.28  4.95   
 Open  4,260.74  2.46   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  4,264.03  3.29   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  4,274.29  10.26   
 Weekly R1  4,278.21  3.92   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  4,290.12  11.91   
 Weekly R2  4,318.47  28.35   
 Monthly R1  4,333.60  15.13   
 Monthly R2  4,429.26  95.65   

Tuesday 2/18/14. Trading Tuesday: Dow

The index climbed by 0.8% or 126.8 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 553 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 305 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 248 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 66/100 or 66.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 20/34 or 58.8% of the time.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale from Thursday's and Friday's trading.

On Thursday, the index formed a double top shown on the chart as AB. This confirmed as a valid chart pattern at C when the index closed below the red line. Although it's hard to tell from this chart, the height of the pattern projected downward from the red line gives a target which the index either reached or came close to. But that move happened on Friday.

Near the close is another chart pattern, a weak version of a head-and-shoulders top. I say "weak" because the left shoulder is not well defined. The pattern confirms as valid when it closes below the neckline (red line connecting the two armpits) at D. That suggests more of a down move coming. The above probabilities, however, suggest a higher close. Both could be right if the index recovers before the close on Tuesday.

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2014 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,825.32    
 Monthly S1  15,489.85  664.54   
 Weekly S2  15,670.14  180.28   
 Weekly S1  15,912.26  242.13   
 Daily S2  15,914.95  2.69   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Weekly Pivot  15,975.82  60.87   
 Low  15,985.39  9.57   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Monthly Pivot  16,005.23  19.84   
 Open  16,018.08  12.85   Yes! The Open is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S1  16,034.67  16.59   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,058.03  23.36   
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,080.47  22.44   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,102.91  22.44   
 Daily Pivot  16,105.11  2.20   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  16,154.39  49.28   
 High  16,175.55  21.16   
 Weekly R1  16,217.94  42.39   
 Daily R1  16,224.83  6.89   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  16,281.50  56.67   
 Daily R2  16,295.27  13.77   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  16,669.76  374.49   
 Monthly R2  17,185.14  515.37   

Thursday 2/13/14. Trading Thursday: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.2% or 10.24 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 599 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 352 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 247 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 56/93 or 60.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/45 or 51.1% of the time.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale from Tuesday's and Wednesday's trading.

Two chart patterns emerge on the figure. The first is a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. That is somewhat odd since price was trending up until the turn down at 10:00. Nevertheless, it confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index closed above the down-sloping red neckline at A.

Near the close, the index formed a broadening formation, right-angled and ascending pattern. This is outlined in blue on the chart, at B. Depending on how you draw the pattern, it appears that an upward breakout occurred. That makes a bullish sign for trading on Thursday.

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2014 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  3,860.32    
 Weekly S2  3,940.34  80.03   
 Monthly S1  4,030.80  90.46   
 Weekly S1  4,070.82  40.01   
 Weekly Pivot  4,098.66  27.85   
 Monthly Pivot  4,138.68  40.01   
 Daily S2  4,179.21  40.53   
 Daily S1  4,190.25  11.04   
 Low  4,190.39  0.14   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  4,196.85  6.46   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,198.88  2.03   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Close  4,201.29  2.41   
 Daily Pivot  4,201.43  0.14   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,201.50  0.07   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,204.12  2.62   
 Daily R1  4,212.47  8.35   
 High  4,212.61  0.14   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  4,223.65  11.04   
 Weekly R1  4,229.14  5.49   
 Weekly R2  4,256.98  27.85   
 Monthly R1  4,309.16  52.18   
 Monthly R2  4,417.04  107.87   

Tuesday 2/11/14. Trading Tuesday: Dow

The index climbed by 0.0% or 7.71 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1196 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 634 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 562 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 65/99 or 65.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 20/34 or 58.8% of the time.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale from Friday's and Monday's trading.

A support area setup by a solid block of congestion on Friday appears as a blue line. The index doesn't drop far enough to test it, at least not on Monday. Maybe it took one good look at it and ran away.

A symmetrical triangle chart pattern appears at A, outlined in red. It's not a pronounced one because I don't like the number of touches it has. At B, the index breaks out of the triangle. If I were day trading this today, I would have sat on the sidelines, waiting for a better chart pattern to appear.

Notice that the index has closed above 15,800. That's above the twin peaks on Friday (3:00+) and today (2:00+). That "bust" (it's not really a bust of a double top since a double top never confirmed) could mean a bigger move up tomorrow.

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2014 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,679.97    
 Weekly S2  15,189.18  509.21   
 Monthly S1  15,240.88  51.70   
 Weekly S1  15,495.48  254.60   
 Weekly Pivot  15,647.00  151.51   
 Daily S2  15,710.99  63.99   
 Low  15,733.69  22.70   
 Daily S1  15,756.39  22.70   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,759.70  3.31   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,767.74  8.04   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,775.78  8.04   
 Daily Pivot  15,779.09  3.31   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  15,793.63  14.54   
 Close  15,801.79  8.16   
 High  15,801.79  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  15,824.49  22.70   
 Daily R2  15,847.19  22.70   
 Monthly Pivot  15,901.60  54.41   
 Weekly R1  15,953.30  51.70   
 Weekly R2  16,104.82  151.51   
 Monthly R1  16,462.51  357.69   
 Monthly R2  17,123.23  660.72   

Monday 2/10/14. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

The index and the other indices are behaving as I have expected and predicted. Thankfully. I have money riding on it.

A broadening top appears between the red lines. It's not a well-formed one because the middle touch on the bottom should actually touch the lower trendline.

Anyway, point A is a pullback to the chart pattern. Those continue lower 47% of the time. That means price rises 53% of the time (in stocks), so I am hopeful of a continued rise.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following are economic reports that moved the markets last week. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 326.05 points.
Tuesday: Up 72.44 points.
Wednesday: Down 5.01 points.
Thursday: Up 188.3 points.
Friday: Up 165.55 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 95.23 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 21.98 points or 0.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 14.43 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.7% down from the high of 16,573.07 on 01/02/2014.
     3.0% up from the low of 15,340.69 on 02/05/2014.
Nasdaq
     2.8% down from the high of 4,246.55 on 01/22/2014.
     4.0% up from the low of 3,968.19 on 02/05/2014.
S&P 500
     2.9% down from the high of 1,850.84 on 01/15/2014.
     3.4% up from the low of 1,737.92 on 02/05/2014.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Wholesale inventories10:00 TD-Wholesale sales and inventory statistics.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Treasury budget2:00 WDTracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing).
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Retail sales8:30 ThA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
Business inventories10:00 ThC-Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.
International trade8:30 FC+Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others.
Industrial production9:15 FB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Capacity utilization9:15 FB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/07/2014, the CPI had:

1 bearish patterns,
23 bullish patterns,
328 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 95.8%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  15,566  15,680  15,739  15,853  15,912 
Weekly  15,187  15,490  15,644  15,948  16,102 
Monthly  14,677  15,236  15,899  16,457  17,121 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  1,768  1,783  1,790  1,805  1,812 
Weekly  1,718  1,757  1,778  1,817  1,838 
Monthly  1,682  1,740  1,795  1,853  1,908 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,051  4,088  4,107  4,145  4,164 
Weekly  3,915  4,021  4,074  4,179  4,232 
Monthly  3,835  3,981  4,114  4,259  4,392 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 43.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 53.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 53.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 43.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 49.0%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bullish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
16Triangle, symmetrical
13Rectangle top
11Pipe top
10Double Top, Eve and Eve
8Double Top, Adam and Adam
8Triangle, descending
8Double Top, Eve and Adam
8Head-and-shoulders top
7Diamond top
7Double Top, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Biotechnology1. Biotechnology
2. Internet2. Internet
3. Cement and Aggregates3. Drug
4. Drug4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Homebuilding5. Air Transport
50. Electric Utility (West)50. Electric Utility (West)
51. Food Processing51. Food Processing
52. Retail (Special Lines)52. Retail (Special Lines)
53. Toiletries/Cosmetics53. Short ETFs
54. Short ETFs54. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Thursday 2/6/14. Trading Thursday: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.5% or -19.97 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 305 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 145 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 160 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 56/93 or 60.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/44 or 52.3% of the time.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale from Tuesday's and Wednesday's trading.

Two chart patterns are identified on this chart. The first, AB, is an ugly double bottom. Essentially, it's a double bottom with unequal bottoms. It suggests a trend change. That's what happens here when the pattern confirms as valid at C.

The second pattern is a triple top, at 123. This pattern confirms when the index closes below 4. Unfortunately, for those traders going short, the drop didn't last long. That strength suggests a move up tomorrow, but that's just a guess. I doubt that these types of patterns translate from day to day. The above probabilities suggest a lower close tomorrow anyway.

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2014 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  3,899.16    
 Daily S2  3,943.92  44.75   
 Monthly S1  3,955.36  11.44   
 Low  3,968.19  12.83   
 Weekly S2  3,972.56  4.37   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  3,977.73  5.18   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  3,990.38  12.65   
 Weekly S1  3,992.05  1.67   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  3,997.24  5.18   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily Pivot  4,002.01  4.77   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,004.09  2.08   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  4,011.55  7.46   
 Open  4,015.50  3.95   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  4,026.28  10.78   
 Daily R1  4,035.82  9.54   
 Daily R2  4,060.10  24.27   
 Weekly Pivot  4,064.26  4.16   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R1  4,083.75  19.50   
 Monthly Pivot  4,100.95  17.20   
 Weekly R2  4,155.96  55.00   
 Monthly R1  4,157.15  1.19   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  4,302.74  145.60   

Tuesday 2/4/14. Trading Tuesday: Dow

The index dropped by -2.1% or -326.05 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 62 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 34 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 28 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 64/98 or 65.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 20/34 or 58.8% of the time.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the weekly scale. I want to pass on my thoughts about what I see happening to the Dow in the near future.

The horizontal blue like shows where the index is now. The horizontal red line is the bottom of a support area that stretches from the red line upward to the peaks above the blue line. I expect a turn somewhere between those two lines. I still think the index is going to recover but I've been wrong so far.

The Dow is making a measured move down chart pattern (AB). When B bottoms, the stock (index in this case) often rebounds back to the corrective phase. That's circled in the small inset in the lower right of the pic. I also show that retrace move on the larger chart as the green line. That line shows what I expect will happen between now and March 1.

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2014 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,888.83    
 Daily S2  15,126.80  237.97   
 Monthly S1  15,130.82  4.02   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  15,249.80  118.98   
 Weekly S2  15,317.07  67.27   
 Weekly S1  15,344.94  27.86   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Low  15,356.17  11.23   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Close  15,372.80  16.63   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  15,479.17  106.37   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,490.78  11.61   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,532.36  41.58   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,573.93  41.58   
 Daily R1  15,602.17  28.24   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  15,645.41  43.24   
 Weekly R1  15,673.28  27.86   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  15,697.69  24.41   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly R1.
 High  15,708.54  10.85   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  15,831.54  123.00   
 Monthly Pivot  15,859.53  27.99   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  15,973.75  114.22   
 Monthly R1  16,101.52  127.76   
 Monthly R2  16,830.23  728.72   

Monday 2/3/14. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the chart pattern indicator from its page. For two weeks now, I have been showing bearish divergence. When that happens in the indicator, the indices tend to follow. However, I didn't pay it much attention.

I've also seen the CPI flopping from bullish to bearish and back again (not shown, but you can see a blog pic of it here). That chart shows some of the signals that stuck (they have to appear for 7 days before they become valid). I ignore those signal changes because they happen so often. When they stick, though, that's important.

My blog on 1/21 warned of this downturn but I didn't take it seriously. I still don't believe what the market is so worried about. I think the FED cutting back its easing is something everyone knew was coming. It's a sign that the economy is getting stronger. Thus, I'm keeping a bullish view on the market because I believe it will turn and turn bullish soon. But I could be wrong. Let's call it denial. But if we slide into a bear market, I'm going to be pissed.

The CPI is still bearish.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a lizard from my garden.

The following are economic reports that moved the markets last week. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 41.23 points.
Tuesday: Up 90.68 points.
Wednesday: Down 189.77 points.
Thursday: Up 109.82 points.
Friday: Down 149.76 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 180.26 points or 1.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 24.29 points or 0.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 7.7 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.3% down from the high of 16,573.07 on 01/02/2014.
     0.5% up from the low of 15,617.55 on 01/31/2014.
Nasdaq
     3.4% down from the high of 4,246.55 on 01/22/2014.
     1.5% up from the low of 4,044.76 on 01/29/2014.
S&P 500
     3.7% down from the high of 1,850.84 on 01/15/2014.
     0.7% up from the low of 1,770.45 on 01/29/2014.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Construction spending10:00 MDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Auto & truck sales2:00 MC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Factory orders10:00 TD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Trade balance8:30 ThC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
Productivity & costs8:30 ThD+Cost of producing a unit of output.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Consumer credit3:00 FD-Measures auto, credit card and other debt.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 01/31/2014, the CPI had:

23 bearish patterns,
9 bullish patterns,
204 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 28.1%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  15,492  15,595  15,721  15,825  15,951 
Weekly  15,426  15,562  15,754  15,891  16,082 
Monthly  14,998  15,348  15,968  16,319  16,939 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  1,761  1,772  1,783  1,794  1,805 
Weekly  1,756  1,769  1,784  1,797  1,812 
Monthly  1,721  1,752  1,801  1,832  1,882 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,041  4,073  4,099  4,130  4,156 
Weekly  4,003  4,054  4,095  4,145  4,187 
Monthly  3,930  4,017  4,132  4,219  4,334 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 17.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 19.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks down 8.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 20.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 19.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 25.6%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bullish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
15Triangle, symmetrical
12Pipe top
12Rectangle top
12Double Top, Eve and Eve
8Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Triangle, descending
7Double Top, Eve and Adam
6Rising wedge
6Diamond top
6Double Top, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Biotechnology1. Biotechnology
2. Internet2. Internet
3. Drug3. Air Transport
4. Computer Software and Svcs4. Drug
5. Air Transport5. Computer Software and Svcs
50. Electric Utility (West)50. Retail (Special Lines)
51. Food Processing51. Apparel
52. Retail (Special Lines)52. Food Processing
53. Short ETFs53. Electric Utility (West)
54. Toiletries/Cosmetics54. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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