Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 03/27/2020
  Indus: 21,637 -915.39 -4.1%  
  Trans: 7,699 -346.29 -4.3%  
  Utils: 759 +1.01 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 7,502 -295.16 -3.8%  
  S&P 500: 2,541 -88.60 -3.4%  
YTD
-24.2%  
-29.4%  
-13.7%  
-16.4%  
-21.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/15/2020  
  Down arrow19,000 or 25,600 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow6,700 or 9,000 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow600 or 800 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow7,000 or 8,400 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow2,300 or 2,900 by 04/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/27/20
As of 03/27/2020
  Indus: 21,637 -915.39 -4.1%  
  Trans: 7,699 -346.29 -4.3%  
  Utils: 759 +1.01 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 7,502 -295.16 -3.8%  
  S&P 500: 2,541 -88.60 -3.4%  
YTD
-24.2%  
-29.4%  
-13.7%  
-16.4%  
-21.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/15/2020  
  Down arrow19,000 or 25,600 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow6,700 or 9,000 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow600 or 800 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow7,000 or 8,400 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow2,300 or 2,900 by 04/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/27/20

 

December 2019 Headlines

Archives


Tuesday 12/31/19. Slider Quiz! Symmetrical Triangles

The index dropped by -0.6% or -183.12 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 666 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 345 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 321 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 197/336 or 58.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/77 or 50.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the symmetrical triangle chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  26,786.45    
 Monthly S1  27,624.29  837.85   
 Monthly Pivot  28,162.98  538.68   
 Daily S2  28,282.89  119.92   
 Weekly S2  28,341.98  59.09   
 Daily S1  28,372.52  30.54   
 Weekly S1  28,402.06  29.54   
 Low  28,428.98  26.92   
 Close  28,462.14  33.16   
 Daily Pivot  28,518.60  56.46   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  28,519.02  0.42   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  28,546.84  27.81   
 Weekly Pivot  28,551.86  5.02   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  28,574.65  22.79   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  28,608.23  33.58   
 Weekly R1  28,611.94  3.71   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Open  28,654.76  42.82   
 High  28,664.69  9.93   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  28,754.31  89.62   
 Weekly R2  28,761.74  7.43   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  29,000.82  239.08   
 Monthly R2  29,539.51  538.68   

Monday 12/30/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I'm not sure how to characterize what the chart shows.

The index appears to be smiling. Indeed, there's lots to be smiling about. The transports are up almost 20% this year, but it's the worst performing of the five indices I monitor.

The index broke through resistance (at about 10,900), but stalled when trying to rise higher. It faded going into December and has moved up in a Santa Claus rally. It might continue rising through the January effect (where stock prices rise that month, on a seasonal basis).

If you close one eye and can't see out the other, then the turn from July to November is a cup and the December move is a handle. The chart is bullish under those conditions. But the narrowing price trend in the last two weeks suggests it's going to be harder to climb much further. That would be a short-term suggestion whereas the cup and handle is a longer term projection.

But who knows?

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 96.44 points.
Tuesday: Down 36.08 points.
Thursday: Up 105.94 points.
Friday: Up 23.87 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 190.17 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 81.66 points or 0.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 18.8 points or 0.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.2% down from the high of 28,701.66 on 12/27/2019.
     26.5% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.5% down from the high of 9,052.00 on 12/27/2019.
     39.5% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 3,247.93 on 12/27/2019.
     32.6% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 12/27/2019, the CPI had:

15 bearish patterns,
26 bullish patterns,
593 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 63.4%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  28,559  28,602  28,652  28,695  28,745 
Weekly  28,403  28,524  28,613  28,734  28,823 
Monthly  26,847  27,746  28,224  29,123  29,601 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,227  3,234  3,241  3,247  3,254 
Weekly  3,209  3,224  3,236  3,252  3,264 
Monthly  3,008  3,124  3,186  3,302  3,364 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,951  8,979  9,015  9,043  9,080 
Weekly  8,880  8,943  8,998  9,061  9,115 
Monthly  8,215  8,611  8,831  9,227  9,448 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks up 26.1%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 24.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 5 weeks up 12.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 4 months up 30.8%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks up 30.3%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 20.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
25Triangle, symmetrical
20Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
10Triple bottom
9Rectangle top
8Triangle, descending
8Diamond top
8Pipe bottom
7Head-and-shoulders bottom
6Broadening top
6Pennant

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Semiconductor2. Semiconductor
3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
4. Homebuilding4. Computers and Peripherals
5. Computers and Peripherals5. Homebuilding

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/27/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 584 stocks searched, or 3.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ALKSTriangle, symmetrical      11/25/201912/26/2019Drug
AWITriangle, symmetrical      11/06/201912/26/2019Building Materials
BERYTriangle, ascending      11/21/201912/26/2019Packaging and Container
BLDRRectangle top      11/14/201912/26/2019Retail Building Supply
CBTTriangle, symmetrical      11/05/201912/26/2019Chemical (Diversified)
CNPDiamond top      12/19/201912/26/2019Electric Utility (Central)
CINFChannel      11/05/201912/26/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CGNXPennant      12/17/201912/26/2019Precision Instrument
EDScallop, descending      11/01/201912/20/2019Electric Utility (East)
COPRising wedge      11/07/201912/26/2019Petroleum (Integrated)
EXPTriangle, descending      10/25/201912/26/2019Cement and Aggregates
FLIRTriangle, descending      11/18/201912/24/2019Aerospace/Defense
GSPennant      12/17/201912/24/2019Securities Brokerage
RAMPTriangle, symmetrical      11/29/201912/26/2019Computer Software and Svcs
NBRFlag, high and tight      10/18/201912/26/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PYPLPennant      12/17/201912/26/2019Financial Services
PGDiamond top      12/09/201912/26/2019Household Products
SMRTRectangle bottom      05/29/201912/26/2019Apparel
TPRRectangle top      09/11/201912/26/2019Apparel
TECHRoof, inverted      11/27/201912/24/2019Biotechnology
VMCRectangle top      11/26/201912/26/2019Cement and Aggregates
XARTriangle, symmetrical      11/26/201912/26/2019Aerospace/Defense

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 12/19/2019 and 12/26/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Alkermes (ALKS)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 459 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $20.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.41 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.68%
Volume: 609,100 shares. 3 month avg: 949,792 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/25/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Armstrong World Industries (AWI)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 451 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $93.96
1 Month avg volatility: $1.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $89.95 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 61.42%
Volume: 97,800 shares. 3 month avg: 508,948 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/06/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Berry Global Group Inc (BERY)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 484 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $47.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.58 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.36%
Volume: 715,500 shares. 3 month avg: 894,866 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 11/21/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 9 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $25.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.99 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 132.72%
Volume: 816,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,257,223 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/14/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Cabot Corp. (CBT)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 370 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $47.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.54 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.29%
Volume: 124,000 shares. 3 month avg: 325,852 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/05/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 482 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $26.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $27.91 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.68%
Volume: 1,994,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,845,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 12/19/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 407 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $103.55
1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $101.02 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.75%
Volume: 372,900 shares. 3 month avg: 534,966 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 11/05/2019 to 12/26/2019

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Cognex (CGNX)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 129 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $55.99
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.81 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 44.79%
Volume: 348,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,157,365 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 12/17/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Con Edison, Inc (ED)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 392 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $89.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $91.59 or 2.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.25%
Volume: 717,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,605,666 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, descending continuation pattern from 11/01/2019 to 12/20/2019
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 15%.
Pullbacks occur 55% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 30% of the time.

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ConocoPhillips (COP)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 373 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $65.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.12 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.25%
Volume: 4,835,200 shares. 3 month avg: 6,156,062 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 386 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $91.26
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $94.88 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 49.53%
Volume: 388,500 shares. 3 month avg: 553,088 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 10/25/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 434 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $52.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $53.98 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.77%
Volume: 333,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,165,460 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 11/18/2019 to 12/24/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Goldman Sachs Group, The (GS)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 151 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $231.21
1 Month avg volatility: $3.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $223.69 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 38.41%
Volume: 1,704,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,673,269 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 12/17/2019 to 12/24/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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LiveRamp Holdings (RAMP)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 319 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $49.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.19 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.21%
Volume: 318,100 shares. 3 month avg: 906,945 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/29/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Nabors Industries, Ltd. (NBR)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 230 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $3.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.74 or 12.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 57.50%
Volume: 5,419,700 shares. 3 month avg: 10,861,705 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 10/18/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Paypal Holdings, Inc (PYPL)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 464 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $109.75
1 Month avg volatility: $1.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $105.14 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.51%
Volume: 3,603,200 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 12/17/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Procter and Gamble Co (PG)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 186 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $125.22
1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $128.46 or 2.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 36.23%
Volume: 4,760,400 shares. 3 month avg: 7,163,346 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 12/09/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 550 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $0.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $0.76 or 8.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -34.28%
Volume: 113,300 shares. 3 month avg: 428,055 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 05/29/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Tapestry Inc (TPR)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 515 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $27.23
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.52 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.32%
Volume: 1,996,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,145,718 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 09/11/2019 to 12/26/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/15/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/13/2020.
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Techne Corporation (TECH)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 289 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $218.34
1 Month avg volatility: $4.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $229.95 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 50.87%
Volume: 77,400 shares. 3 month avg: 150,611 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 11/27/2019 to 12/24/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 310 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $143.65
1 Month avg volatility: $2.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $138.20 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 45.39%
Volume: 309,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,153,271 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/26/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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SPDR S and P Aerospace and Defense (XAR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 293 out of 579
12/26/19 close: $109.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $107.44 or 2.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 39.05%
Volume: 349,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/26/2019 to 12/26/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Wednesday/Thursday 12/25-26/19. A Christmas Story

The last 3 months haven't been easy for me. It's the little things that go wrong. They paved the road in front, with the steamroller shaking my house enough to rattle the plumbing and loosen connections on my computer. It crashed. Twice. I reseated the RAM chips and it's been working fine since (but it's only been a few days). The phone company increased rates for the internet so they are charging above the national average (which is $66/month). That sucks. The electric company raised rates by 30% from a few years ago. Ouch! Lawyers at my book publisher are throwing up roadblocks on my new contract with stuff like "moral rights" and a gag clause. I told them I wouldn't sign. "I'll go to the publisher and get an exemption to the gag clause," my editor promised. We'll see).

Little annoying stuff like that.

I've been working on a birthday present for my mom since early summer. I built her a band saw box. The box was easy enough to make, but I struggled with this one (I tried a new technique. It looks better but took 3 tries to get it right). Then I had an idea to have a custom-made piece of jewelry included, tucked in one of the drawers.

I looked around for a custom jeweler and chose one in a town that was less expensive than the one I live in. I sent them an email in mid-September. Twice. No answer. So I thought of sending my business to the jeweler in my town, but they didn't even have a website! I prefer emails over phone calls, but I called the original jeweler anyway. "Our website is a mess. We're rebuilding it," the owner said.

I told them about the emails, which they dug up. I drove down there and got a quote for a brooch. Ouch. It was more than I anticipated, but it was for my mom's 90th birthday. Sometimes, you have to pay up for what you want, and she's worth it.

So I gave them a deposit. One month went by. A few phone calls and a few visits, but we settled on a design which worked.

Two months passed. Where was the brooch? It was a month overdue.

Now, it's the holidays and my upcoming mom's birthday is overshadowed by an operation she needs to have done. The calendar is ticking. I don't want to mail her the piece and have it placed in her coffin. Would my jeweler put my project on the back burner with the knowledge he held my deposit captive while he serviced new customers during the holiday rush?

Yes, but with a twist.

I called him today (day before Christmas) and he said he would have it ready by closing time. I went down there and had to wait too long, but he brought out the piece and showed it to me. It was as designed and it looks terrific.

"Let's talk numbers," I said and was ready to do battle because I simplified the design and reduced the cost. He started by saying the CAD charges were higher than expected because of the revisions but the latest design had fewer gems, no complicated pin/necklace fastener, and so on.

I was ready to jump up and down on him to prove my new design had saved $200.

Then he said (paraphrasing), "Let's call it even." In other words, the amount I put down as a deposit paid for the piece.

Wow!

What a nice Christmas present. It's rare that a shop owner will give you half off a custom work of art but this one did. It brightened my Christmas. Gems still exist on this earth, as rare as they are, but my jeweler is one of them.

-- Thomas Bulkowski


Tuesday 12/24/19. Slider Quiz! Descending Triangles

The index climbed by 0.3% or 96.44 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1104 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 610 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 494 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 197/335 or 58.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/77 or 50.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the descending triangle chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  26,878.26    
 Monthly S1  27,714.89  836.64   
 Weekly S2  28,033.64  318.75   
 Monthly Pivot  28,161.77  128.13   
 Weekly S1  28,292.59  130.82   
 Weekly Pivot  28,450.61  158.03   
 Daily S2  28,451.22  0.61   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  28,491.78  40.56   
 Open  28,491.78  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  28,501.38  9.60   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  28,526.43  25.05   
 50% Down from Intraday High  28,537.13  10.70   
 Daily Pivot  28,541.93  4.80   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  28,547.84  5.90   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  28,551.53  3.69   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  28,582.49  30.96   
 Daily R1  28,592.09  9.60   
 Daily R2  28,632.64  40.56   
 Weekly R1  28,709.56  76.91   
 Weekly R2  28,867.58  158.03   
 Monthly R1  28,998.40  130.82   
 Monthly R2  29,445.28  446.87   

Monday 12/23/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilites on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utility index on the daily scale.

Do you recognize this chart pattern?

It's one of the best performing chart patterns but it's not one I search for.

It's a bump-and-run reversal, bottom.

The lead-in phase is from A to B. This is not ideal in this example. The up and down movement should be narrower, like a channel, and the height of this, at its tallest, should be half the height of the bump phase, BC, measured at its tallest point (from D to line BC).

The chart pattern suggest a big move higher. The pattern hasn't confirmed yet, because price hasn't closed above the top trendline (AC).

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 100.51 points.
Tuesday: Up 31.27 points.
Wednesday: Down 27.88 points.
Thursday: Up 137.68 points.
Friday: Up 78.13 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 319.71 points or 1.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 190.08 points or 2.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 52.42 points or 1.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.5% down from the high of 28,608.64 on 12/20/2019.
     25.7% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.1% down from the high of 8,931.91 on 12/20/2019.
     38.2% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 3,225.65 on 12/20/2019.
     31.8% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 12/20/2019, the CPI had:

3 bearish patterns,
49 bullish patterns,
253 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 94.2%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  28,340  28,398  28,503  28,561  28,666 
Weekly  28,001  28,228  28,418  28,645  28,835 
Monthly  26,846  27,651  28,130  28,934  29,413 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,211  3,216  3,221  3,226  3,231 
Weekly  3,168  3,195  3,210  3,237  3,252 
Monthly  3,017  3,119  3,172  3,274  3,328 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,890  8,907  8,920  8,937  8,950 
Weekly  8,740  8,833  8,882  8,975  9,024 
Monthly  8,268  8,596  8,764  9,093  9,261 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 34.6%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 24.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 4 weeks up 19.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 4 months up 30.8%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 36.1%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 20.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
23Triangle, symmetrical
16Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
10Triple bottom
8Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Pipe bottom
7Diamond top
7Head-and-shoulders bottom
7Rectangle top
7Broadening top
5Double Bottom, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Semiconductor2. Semiconductor
3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing3. Computers and Peripherals
4. Computers and Peripherals4. Homebuilding
5. Homebuilding5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/20/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 23 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 584 stocks searched, or 3.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 5 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 18 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ALKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/03/201912/13/2019Air Transport
APOGDead-cat bounce      12/19/201912/19/2019Building Materials
BIIBDiamond top      11/25/201912/19/2019Biotechnology
BRCTriangle, symmetrical      11/27/201912/19/2019Chemical (Diversified)
CXPipe bottom      12/02/201912/09/2019Cement and Aggregates
CAGTriple bottom      11/21/201912/13/2019Food Processing
DECKTriangle, symmetrical      11/22/201912/19/2019Shoe
EZPWPennant      12/10/201912/13/2019Financial Services
FDXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/05/201912/16/2019Air Transport
FLEXPipe bottom      12/02/201912/09/2019Electronics
GDTriangle, symmetrical      12/03/201912/19/2019Aerospace/Defense
GPNPipe bottom      12/02/201912/09/2019Computer Software and Svcs
INFNPipe bottom      12/02/201912/09/2019Telecom. Equipment
LRCXBroadening top      10/28/201912/17/2019Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LRectangle top      10/01/201912/19/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
MRTNTriple bottom      11/22/201912/13/2019Trucking/Transp. Leasing
MASBroadening top      11/04/201912/16/2019Building Materials
NBRFlag, high and tight      10/18/201912/19/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NOVTriangle, symmetrical      08/28/201912/19/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
OGEBroadening bottom      10/24/201912/17/2019Electric Utility (Central)
OMIPipe top      12/02/201912/09/2019Medical Supplies
PORDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/12/201912/13/2019Electric Utility (West)
SMTCPipe bottom      12/02/201912/09/2019Semiconductor Cap Equip.
SOBroadening top      09/24/201912/17/2019Electric Utility (East)
TPRRectangle top      09/11/201912/19/2019Apparel
TKRScallop, ascending      11/07/201912/13/2019Metal Fabricating
TJXTriangle, symmetrical      11/13/201912/18/2019Retail Store
WUTriangle, symmetrical      11/07/201912/19/2019Financial Services

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 12/12/2019 and 12/19/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 224 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $69.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.52 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.72%
Volume: 1,106,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,966,126 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 12/03/2019 to 12/13/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Apogee Enterprises (APOG)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 542 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $32.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.65 or 8.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.24%
Volume: 1,977,800 shares. 3 month avg: 243,183 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 12/19/2019 to 12/19/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Biogen Idec (BIIB)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 65 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $297.58
1 Month avg volatility: $7.86. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $314.50 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.11%
Volume: 1,435,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,244,726 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 11/25/2019 to 12/19/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Brady Corp (BRC)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 124 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $57.58
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.25 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 32.49%
Volume: 218,200 shares. 3 month avg: 204,463 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/27/2019 to 12/19/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cemex SA de CV (CX)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 474 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $3.87
1 Month avg volatility: $0.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.66 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.71%
Volume: 6,787,000 shares. 3 month avg: 9,928,860 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 12/02/2019 to 12/09/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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ConAgra Brands Inc (CAG)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 156 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $33.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.63 or 12.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 57.58%
Volume: 30,107,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,423,360 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 11/21/2019 to 12/13/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 468 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $163.59
1 Month avg volatility: $3.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $156.03 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.85%
Volume: 385,400 shares. 3 month avg: 637,325 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/22/2019 to 12/19/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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EZCorp Inc (EZPW)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $6.82
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.21 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.77%
Volume: 674,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 12/10/2019 to 12/13/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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FedEx (FDX)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 511 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $147.02
1 Month avg volatility: $3.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $156.10 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.87%
Volume: 5,825,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,372,055 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/05/2019 to 12/16/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Flextronics International Ltd (FLEX)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 41 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $12.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.08 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 68.20%
Volume: 4,582,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,241,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 12/02/2019 to 12/09/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 354 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $178.65
1 Month avg volatility: $2.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $173.61 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.64%
Volume: 1,161,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,076,035 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/03/2019 to 12/19/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Global Payments Inc (GPN)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 169 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $183.39
1 Month avg volatility: $2.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $175.21 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 77.82%
Volume: 2,789,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,112,569 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 12/02/2019 to 12/09/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 3 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $7.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.97 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 89.47%
Volume: 4,634,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,624,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 12/02/2019 to 12/09/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Lam Research Corp (LRCX)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 13 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $293.29
1 Month avg volatility: $5.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $304.94 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 115.39%
Volume: 1,298,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,565,394 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 10/28/2019 to 12/17/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Loews Corp (L)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 458 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $51.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.71 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.41%
Volume: 1,013,300 shares. 3 month avg: 964,671 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 10/01/2019 to 12/19/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 115 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $21.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.64 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.72%
Volume: 160,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 11/22/2019 to 12/13/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Masco Corp. (MAS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 72 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $47.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.92 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 61.32%
Volume: 2,937,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,351,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/04/2019 to 12/16/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Nabors Industries, Ltd. (NBR)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 75 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $3.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.54 or 17.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 54.50%
Volume: 13,416,700 shares. 3 month avg: 10,861,705 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 10/18/2019 to 12/19/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 143 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $24.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.43 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.29%
Volume: 3,192,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,130,966 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/28/2019 to 12/19/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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OGE Energy Corp (OGE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 356 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $44.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.74 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.71%
Volume: 835,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,006,480 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 10/24/2019 to 12/17/2019
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Owens and Minor Inc (OMI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 8 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $5.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.30 or 22.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -18.80%
Volume: 1,469,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,318,423 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 12/02/2019 to 12/09/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Portland General Electric Co. (POR)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 377 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $56.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.92 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.90%
Volume: 361,400 shares. 3 month avg: 771,474 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 11/12/2019 to 12/13/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 40%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

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Semtech Corp (SMTC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 214 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $50.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.29 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.68%
Volume: 336,300 shares. 3 month avg: 510,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 12/02/2019 to 12/09/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Southern Company (SO)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 185 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $63.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $65.32 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 43.60%
Volume: 8,122,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,514,520 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 09/24/2019 to 12/17/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Tapestry Inc (TPR)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 523 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $26.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.61 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.81%
Volume: 4,484,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,145,718 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 09/11/2019 to 12/19/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/15/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/13/2020.
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Timken Co., The (TKR)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 166 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $56.02
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.81 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 50.11%
Volume: 441,500 shares. 3 month avg: 853,643 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/13/2019
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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TJX Companies Inc (TJX)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 210 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $60.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.15 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 34.67%
Volume: 4,292,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,406,445 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/13/2019 to 12/18/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Western Union Co (WU)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 39 out of 579
12/19/19 close: $27.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.93 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 59.26%
Volume: 5,269,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/19/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 12/19/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.0% or 4.37 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 671 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 378 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 293 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 180/322 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/106 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I mentioned in yesterday's post that I thought the indices were running out of steam. This chart shows another example of that.

Price at A and B are forming a double top. It's not confirmed, so it's just squiggles on the chart. But the second peak makes a new high and fades. That's another chart pattern called a 2B.

Here's how the pattern is described.

In an uptrend, if a higher high is made but fails to carry through, and then prices drop below the previous high, then the trend is apt to reverse. The converse is true for down trends. This observation applies in any of the three trends; short-term, intermediate-term, or long-term.

A 2B on a minor high or low will usually occur within one day or less of the time the high or low is made. For 2B's on intermediate highs or lows preceding a correction, the new high or low point will usually break within three to five days. At major market turning points, long-term 2B's, the new high or low will usually break within seven to ten days. In the stock market, after the new high is made, the failure to carry forward usually occurs on low to normal volume, and the confirmation of a reversal occurs on higher volume.

That's from, Victor Sperandeo in his book, Trader Vic--Methods of a Wall Street Master.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  8,330.64    
 Weekly S2  8,564.42  233.79   
 Monthly S1  8,579.18  14.76   
 Monthly Pivot  8,674.03  94.84   
 Weekly S1  8,696.08  22.05   
 Weekly Pivot  8,732.47  36.40   
 Daily S2  8,803.96  71.49   
 Daily S1  8,815.85  11.88   
 Low  8,820.42  4.57   
 Close  8,827.73  7.31   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,831.25  3.52   
 Daily Pivot  8,832.30  1.06   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,834.59  2.29   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  8,834.65  0.06   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,837.93  3.28   
 Daily R1  8,844.19  6.25   
 High  8,848.76  4.57   
 Daily R2  8,860.64  11.88   
 Weekly R1  8,864.13  3.48   
 Weekly R2  8,900.52  36.40   
 Monthly R1  8,922.57  22.05   
 Monthly R2  9,017.42  94.84   

Wednesday 12/18/19. A Look At Indicators: Bullish Warning

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The index continues its march upward. The indicator is also showing its support by signaling a bullish bar on the far right of the chart.

However, the indicator as shown by the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart, has peaked and is heading lower. That may not be significant. Why?

Because the indicator can change for up to a week. The green signal (vertical bar on the right) is solid. It's not going away. But large moves in the index can either confirm a bullish rise or warn of a bearish turn.

My hunch is that the index is getting tired, that it's going to drop back to 360 (using the right scale on the chart, not the left) in the next week or so (and maybe go lower).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 26%.
The fewest was 23% on 12/17/2019.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 482 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 13% on 12/17/2019.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines show improvement over the readings taken a week ago. The signals confirm the bullish appearance of the prior chart, too. So there's no cause for alarm. Or is there?

As I've mentioned, this chart isn't that meaningful. The two indicators just follow the index as it wobbles up and down. You can't even use divergence because the three lines mimic each other. So this chart shows nothing even if the above stats are interesting.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/17/19. Slider Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.4% or 100.51 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1100 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 581 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 519 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 196/334 or 58.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/77 or 50.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the ascending triangle chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  26,984.98    
 Monthly S1  27,610.44  625.46   
 Weekly S2  27,620.54  10.11   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S1  27,928.22  307.67   
 Monthly Pivot  27,950.58  22.37   
 Daily S2  28,109.20  158.61   
 Weekly Pivot  28,109.47  0.28   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  28,172.54  63.07   
 Open  28,191.67  19.13   
 Low  28,191.67  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Open.
 Close  28,235.89  44.22   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  28,247.37  11.48   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  28,255.02  7.64   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  28,264.58  9.56   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  28,281.79  17.21   
 Daily R1  28,318.36  36.58   
 High  28,337.49  19.13   
 Daily R2  28,400.84  63.35   
 Weekly R1  28,417.15  16.31   
 Monthly R1  28,576.04  158.89   
 Weekly R2  28,598.40  22.37   
 Monthly R2  28,916.18  317.78   

Tuesday 12/17/19. Slider Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.4% or 100.51 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1100 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 581 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 519 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 196/334 or 58.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/77 or 50.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the ascending triangle chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  26,984.98    
 Monthly S1  27,610.44  625.46   
 Weekly S2  27,620.54  10.11   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S1  27,928.22  307.67   
 Monthly Pivot  27,950.58  22.37   
 Daily S2  28,109.20  158.61   
 Weekly Pivot  28,109.47  0.28   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  28,172.54  63.07   
 Open  28,191.67  19.13   
 Low  28,191.67  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Open.
 Close  28,235.89  44.22   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  28,247.37  11.48   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  28,255.02  7.64   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  28,264.58  9.56   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  28,281.79  17.21   
 Daily R1  28,318.36  36.58   
 High  28,337.49  19.13   
 Daily R2  28,400.84  63.35   
 Weekly R1  28,417.15  16.31   
 Monthly R1  28,576.04  158.89   
 Weekly R2  28,598.40  22.37   
 Monthly R2  28,916.18  317.78   

Monday 12/16/19. Market Monday: Bullish Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

At B, the index formed a diamond top chart pattern, a very loose looking diamond. This one breaks out upward but that's not what's exciting

If you believe that the pattern acts as a mid-trend pattern (which many patterns do, occasionally), then there's money to be made.

I'm talking about pattern B appearing midway on the move from A to C (not shown). The AB move added to B would get you C.

Whether that will happen is anyone's guess.

 

 

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 105.46 points.
Tuesday: Down 27.88 points.
Wednesday: Up 29.58 points.
Thursday: Up 220.75 points.
Friday: Up 3.33 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 120.32 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 78.05 points or 0.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 22.89 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.5% down from the high of 28,290.73 on 12/13/2019.
     24.3% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.4% down from the high of 8,768.87 on 12/13/2019.
     35.3% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.4% down from the high of 3,182.68 on 12/13/2019.
     29.7% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 12/13/2019, the CPI had:

11 bearish patterns,
22 bullish patterns,
182 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 66.7%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,889  28,012  28,151  28,275  28,414 
Weekly  27,587  27,861  28,076  28,350  28,565 
Monthly  26,951  27,543  27,917  28,509  28,883 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,143  3,156  3,169  3,182  3,196 
Weekly  3,103  3,136  3,159  3,192  3,216 
Monthly  3,028  3,099  3,141  3,211  3,253 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,662  8,699  8,734  8,770  8,805 
Weekly  8,533  8,634  8,702  8,802  8,870 
Monthly  8,300  8,517  8,643  8,861  8,986 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 47.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 4 months up 24.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks up 26.7%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 30.8%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 49.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 4 months up 20.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
18Triangle, symmetrical
7Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
7Diamond top
6Head-and-shoulders bottom
6Rectangle top
6Double Top, Eve and Eve
6Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
5Double Top, Adam and Adam
5Triangle, descending
5Head-and-shoulders top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Computers and Peripherals
2. Semiconductor2. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
3. Computers and Peripherals3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Homebuilding4. Homebuilding
5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing5. Semiconductor

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/13/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 37 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 584 stocks searched, or 6.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 12 bearish ones with any remaining (11) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABTTriangle, symmetrical      11/18/201912/11/2019Medical Supplies
ADSTriangle, symmetrical      10/31/201912/11/2019Information Services
AONPennant      12/06/201912/12/2019Insurance (Diversified)
BIGHorn bottom      11/18/201912/02/2019Retail Store
CALMRectangle top      11/14/201912/12/2019Food Processing
CINFBroadening wedge, descending      11/05/201912/12/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CLFBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      10/31/201912/10/2019Metals and Mining (Div.)
CNADiamond bottom      11/22/201912/12/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CMCORising wedge      09/13/201912/10/2019Machinery
CONNDead-cat bounce      12/10/201912/10/2019Retail (Special Lines)
DFSRoof, inverted      11/07/201912/11/2019Financial Services
^DJIDiamond top      11/15/201912/11/2019None
EXCTriangle, descending      10/30/201912/12/2019Electric Utility (East)
FFGHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/03/201912/06/2019Insurance (Life)
FISBroadening top, right-angled and descending      11/20/201912/11/2019Computer Software and Svcs
GMEDead-cat bounce      12/11/201912/11/2019Retail (Special Lines)
HLITTriangle, ascending      11/13/201912/12/2019Telecom. Equipment
HSICTriangle, symmetrical      11/20/201912/12/2019Medical Supplies
IPGBroadening top      11/13/201912/11/2019Advertising
KBHRoof, inverted      11/19/201912/10/2019Homebuilding
LHHead-and-shoulders top      11/18/201912/06/2019Medical Services
LANCTriangle, descending      11/19/201912/11/2019Food Processing
^IXICDiamond top      11/19/201912/10/2019None
NWYDead-cat bounce      12/06/201912/06/2019Apparel
NWLHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/26/201912/11/2019Household Products
NXGNDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/29/201912/12/2019Healthcare Information
ORIRoof, inverted      11/06/201912/12/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
RGADiamond top      11/18/201912/12/2019Insurance (Life)
^GSPCDiamond top      11/15/201912/11/2019None
SCHWTriangle, symmetrical      11/21/201912/11/2019Securities Brokerage
SHWTriangle, descending      11/15/201912/11/2019Chemical (Basic)
SMRTRectangle bottom      05/29/201912/12/2019Apparel
TLRDTriple top      11/07/201912/09/2019Retail (Special Lines)
TPRRectangle top      09/11/201912/12/2019Apparel
VRSNTriangle, symmetrical      10/08/201912/12/2019Internet
WSOBroadening top      11/01/201912/06/2019Retail Building Supply
WSMDiamond top      10/16/201912/12/2019Retail (Special Lines)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 12/05/2019 and 12/12/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 332 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $85.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $82.34 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.86%
Volume: 4,155,200 shares. 3 month avg: 6,008,617 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/18/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Alliance Data Systems Corp (ADS)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 554 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $108.94
1 Month avg volatility: $2.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $100.96 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -27.41%
Volume: 1,046,500 shares. 3 month avg: 546,969 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/31/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Aon Corp (AON)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 270 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $205.88
1 Month avg volatility: $2.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $198.99 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 41.63%
Volume: 772,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,174,512 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 12/06/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Big Lots Inc. (BIG)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 442 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $28.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.21 or 14.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.46%
Volume: 2,280,600 shares. 3 month avg: 984,457 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 11/18/2019 to 12/02/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 290 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $43.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.53 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.22%
Volume: 227,700 shares. 3 month avg: 322,132 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/14/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 358 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $106.18
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $102.58 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 37.15%
Volume: 548,000 shares. 3 month avg: 534,966 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 11/05/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 495 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $8.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.65 or 9.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.21%
Volume: 15,105,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 10/31/2019 to 12/10/2019
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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CNA Financial Corp (CNA)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 477 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $44.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.78 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.45%
Volume: 219,400 shares. 3 month avg: 204,923 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 11/22/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Columbus McKinnon (CMCO)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 391 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $39.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.44 or 5.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 30.46%
Volume: 272,800 shares. 3 month avg: 120,960 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 09/13/2019 to 12/10/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Conns Inc (CONN)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 559 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $13.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.44 or 17.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -30.14%
Volume: 2,137,800 shares. 3 month avg: 567,568 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 12/10/2019 to 12/10/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Discover Financial Services (DFS)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 219 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $86.38
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $88.86 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 46.46%
Volume: 1,320,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,443,809 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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DJ 30 Industrials (^DJI)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
12/12/19 close: $28,132.05
1 Month avg volatility: $162.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28,548.98 or 1.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 20.60%
Volume: 277,742,400 shares. 3 month avg: 248,255,040 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 11/15/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Exelon Corp. (EXC)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 524 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $44.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.72 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.22%
Volume: 6,858,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,244,875 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 10/30/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 476 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $59.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.72 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.67%
Volume: 39,500 shares. 3 month avg: 24,305 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/03/2019 to 12/06/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Fidelity National Information Svcs (FIS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 191 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $136.73
1 Month avg volatility: $1.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $130.68 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.33%
Volume: 2,497,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,473,917 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 11/20/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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GameStop Corp (GME)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 383 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $5.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.33 or 13.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -55.78%
Volume: 6,386,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,063,175 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 12/11/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Harmonic Inc (HLIT)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 15 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $8.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.73 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 73.73%
Volume: 776,800 shares. 3 month avg: 585,235 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 11/13/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $68.82
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.33 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.35%
Volume: 714,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,211,905 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/20/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 323 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $23.06
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.72 or 2.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.78%
Volume: 2,797,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,516,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/13/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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KB Home Corp. (KBH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 47 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $34.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.34 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 81.68%
Volume: 992,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,684,634 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 11/19/2019 to 12/10/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Labratory Corp of America (LH)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 381 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $169.16
1 Month avg volatility: $2.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $175.46 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 33.87%
Volume: 475,800 shares. 3 month avg: 674,168 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 11/18/2019 to 12/06/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Lancaster Colony Corp (LANC)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 340 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $158.34
1 Month avg volatility: $2.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $163.90 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -10.47%
Volume: 71,000 shares. 3 month avg: 112,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 11/19/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
12/12/19 close: $8,717.32
1 Month avg volatility: $57.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8,861.52 or 1.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 31.38%
Volume: 0 shares. Could not calculate the 3 month avg volume.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 11/19/2019 to 12/10/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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New York and Company Inc (NWY)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 579 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $0.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.17 or 30.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -68.37%
Volume: 81,400 shares. 3 month avg: 105,818 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 12/06/2019 to 12/06/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Newell Brands Inc (NWL)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 48 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $19.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.38 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.57%
Volume: 2,748,100 shares. 3 month avg: 7,205,206 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 11/26/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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NextGen Healthcare Inc (NXGN)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 519 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $16.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.30 or 14.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.96%
Volume: 920,900 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 11/29/2019 to 12/12/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 07/25/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/23/2020.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

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Old Republic International Corp (ORI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 408 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $22.68
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.45 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.26%
Volume: 2,391,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,253,378 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 11/06/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Reinsurance Group of America (RGA)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 258 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $165.29
1 Month avg volatility: $2.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $169.81 or 2.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.87%
Volume: 289,000 shares. 3 month avg: 326,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 11/18/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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S and P 500 (^GSPC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
12/12/19 close: $3,168.57
1 Month avg volatility: $17.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3,211.33 or 1.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 26.40%
Volume: 2,217,305,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,826,019,249 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 11/15/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Schwab, Charles Corporation (SCHW)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 108 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $51.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.57 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.97%
Volume: 16,823,600 shares. 3 month avg: 6,527,123 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/21/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Sherwin-Williams Co (SHW)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 107 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $576.81
1 Month avg volatility: $7.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $595.91 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 46.60%
Volume: 420,300 shares. 3 month avg: 564,294 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 11/15/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 432 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $0.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $0.81 or 13.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -33.66%
Volume: 70,800 shares. 3 month avg: 428,055 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 05/29/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 557 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $4.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.41 or 25.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -68.40%
Volume: 10,678,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,195,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/09/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 09/12/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 03/12/2020.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Tapestry Inc (TPR)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 500 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $26.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.47 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.96%
Volume: 4,047,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,145,718 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 09/11/2019 to 12/12/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/15/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/13/2020.
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Verisign (VRSN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 497 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $189.97
1 Month avg volatility: $3.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $181.89 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 28.11%
Volume: 442,300 shares. 3 month avg: 871,351 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/08/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Watsco, Inc (WSO)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 254 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $180.75
1 Month avg volatility: $2.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $186.21 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 29.91%
Volume: 164,300 shares. 3 month avg: 222,320 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/01/2019 to 12/06/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 120 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $70.11
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $74.45 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 38.97%
Volume: 998,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,925,938 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 10/16/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Thursday 12/12/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.4% or 37.87 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 604 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 381 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 223 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 179/321 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/106 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

From the left, the chart shows a head-and-shoulders bottom at LS, Head, and RS. It confirms on Friday when the index gapped open higher.

More recently, valleys AB look like a double bottom or a big W with the sides stretched out wide (CD) as if welcoming traders with open arms.

Notice how D hasn't made it up to C yet, suggesting there's room for growth.

If you draw a trendline from the peak on the far left of the chart, touching C, it might touch D as well (D is below the line a smidgen). So there's overhead resistance, which suggests tomorrow's close won't be much above today's.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  8,253.18    
 Weekly S2  8,349.99  96.81   
 Monthly S1  8,453.62  103.63   
 Weekly S1  8,502.02  48.40   
 Monthly Pivot  8,579.76  77.74   
 Weekly Pivot  8,587.43  7.67   
 Daily S2  8,608.83  21.40   
 Low  8,622.35  13.52   
 Open  8,631.12  8.77   
 Daily S1  8,631.44  0.32   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,636.15  4.71   
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,640.42  4.26   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,644.68  4.26   
 Daily Pivot  8,644.96  0.28   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  8,654.05  9.09   
 High  8,658.48  4.43   
 Daily R1  8,667.57  9.09   
 Daily R2  8,681.09  13.52   
 Weekly R1  8,739.46  58.37   
 Monthly R1  8,780.20  40.74   
 Weekly R2  8,824.87  44.67   
 Monthly R2  8,906.34  81.47   

Wednesday 12/11/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

A week ago we had a bearish signal and the market dropped.

This week, we see a bullish signal, denoted by the vertical green line on the right of the chart. The market has responded by rising. Will the rise continue?

Look at the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart. It's heading down. You'd think that with news of the Mexico/Canada trade deal, the markets would have soared. But they didn't. Hmm.

Maybe that suggests weakness going forward. The dropping blue line certainly does.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 26% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 29%.
The fewest was 25% on 12/09/2019.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 482 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 16%.
The peak was 14% on 12/06/2019.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines show improvement over a week ago. They continue to move in lockstep with the index. No surprise there. It's why I'm not too keen on these indicators. What's the point if you can look at the price chart and see how things are doing?

However, the lines continue to trend higher over the longer term and that's good news.

The prior chart is bullish but with a warning by the CPI line. This chart is bullish with no hint that I can see of any bearish actors popping up. So I'm still bullish short term.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/10/19. Slider Quiz! Inverted and Descending Scallops

The index dropped by -0.4% or -105.46 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 913 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 463 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 450 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 196/333 or 58.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/77 or 50.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the inverted and descending scallop chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  26,953.39    
 Weekly S2  26,996.81  43.42   
 Monthly S1  27,431.50  434.68   
 Weekly S1  27,453.21  21.71   
 Weekly Pivot  27,781.52  328.32   
 Monthly Pivot  27,803.23  21.71   
 Daily S2  27,837.77  34.54   
 Daily S1  27,873.69  35.91   
 Low  27,906.14  32.45   
 Close  27,909.60  3.46   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  27,942.05  32.45   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  27,945.97  3.92   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  27,958.28  12.30   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  27,970.59  12.31   
 Daily R1  27,977.97  7.38   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  27,987.05  9.08   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  28,010.42  23.37   
 Daily R2  28,046.33  35.91   
 Weekly R1  28,237.92  191.58   
 Monthly R1  28,281.34  43.42   
 Weekly R2  28,566.23  284.90   
 Monthly R2  28,653.07  86.84   

Monday 12/9/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

Bottoms 1, 2, and 3 form a triple bottom.

That's three bottoms near the same price. The pattern confirms as a valid triple bottom when price closes above the top of the pattern. That happens when price gaps up in September.

In this example, a throwback takes price back down in October to the level of the three bottoms.

More recently is the diamond shape in the upper right of the chart. Can you name this chart pattern?

That was easy, wasn't it? It's a diamond top, but not one I'm proud of.

The right side of the index isn't well formed, so we really should wait to see if the diamond blossoms with sparkle or not. As it looks now, I'm not sure it's a diamond.

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 268.37 points.
Tuesday: Down 280.23 points.
Wednesday: Up 146.97 points.
Thursday: Up 28.01 points.
Friday: Up 337.27 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 36.35 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 8.64 points or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 4.93 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.6% down from the high of 28,174.97 on 11/27/2019.
     23.8% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.6% down from the high of 8,705.91 on 11/27/2019.
     34.1% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.3% down from the high of 3,154.26 on 11/27/2019.
     28.7% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 12/06/2019, the CPI had:

4 bearish patterns,
46 bullish patterns,
297 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 92.0%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,767  27,891  27,964  28,087  28,160 
Weekly  27,032  27,524  27,817  28,308  28,601 
Monthly  26,989  27,502  27,838  28,352  28,688 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,128  3,137  3,144  3,153  3,160 
Weekly  3,042  3,094  3,122  3,174  3,203 
Monthly  3,034  3,090  3,122  3,178  3,210 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,616  8,636  8,651  8,671  8,686 
Weekly  8,351  8,504  8,588  8,741  8,826 
Monthly  8,254  8,455  8,581  8,782  8,907 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 27.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 21.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 36.3%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 30.8%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 27.1%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 26.3%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
14Triangle, symmetrical
5Rising wedge
5Diamond top
5Double Top, Adam and Adam
5Double Top, Eve and Eve
4Rectangle top
4Pipe top
4Triple top
4Head-and-shoulders top
4Head-and-shoulders bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Computers and Peripherals1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Trucking/Transp. Leasing2. Computers and Peripherals
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
4. Homebuilding4. Semiconductor
5. Semiconductor5. Homebuilding

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/6/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 28 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 584 stocks searched, or 4.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 22 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADTNTriangle, symmetrical      10/10/201912/05/2019Telecom. Equipment
AMNRectangle top      11/08/201912/05/2019Human Resources
AXEBroadening top      11/15/201912/03/2019Electronics
ARWDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      11/20/201912/03/2019Electronics
ASHFlag      11/21/201912/02/2019Chemical (Basic)
BLLTriangle, symmetrical      11/12/201912/05/2019Packaging and Container
CIENDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/13/201911/29/2019Telecom. Equipment
CTSHBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      11/07/201912/05/2019IT Services
CLRTriangle, symmetrical      11/07/201912/05/2019Petroleum (Producing)
DTEHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/29/201912/03/2019Electric Utility (Central)
DUKHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/12/201912/03/2019Electric Utility (East)
HPTriangle, symmetrical      10/31/201912/05/2019Petroleum (Producing)
LANCTriangle, symmetrical      11/05/201912/05/2019Food Processing
MTRNTriangle, symmetrical      10/24/201912/05/2019Metals and Mining (Div.)
ASGNRectangle top      11/11/201912/05/2019Human Resources
OUTRectangle bottom      11/06/201912/05/2019Advertising
PCGFlag, high and tight      10/28/201912/05/2019Electric Utility (West)
PGRTriangle, symmetrical      10/11/201912/05/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
KWRHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/21/201912/03/2019Chemical (Specialty)
RLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/21/201912/03/2019Apparel
RHIRectangle top      10/30/201912/05/2019Human Resources
CRMScallop, ascending and inverted      10/23/201912/04/2019E-Commerce
SOTriangle, ascending      11/01/201912/05/2019Electric Utility (East)
SCSTriangle, ascending      10/21/201912/05/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
TSCORectangle top      10/24/201912/05/2019Retail Building Supply
RIGTriangle, symmetrical      08/15/201912/03/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TREXTriangle, symmetrical      10/29/201912/05/2019Building Materials
VMIBroadening bottom      11/12/201912/05/2019Metal Fabricating

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 11/28/2019 and 12/05/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 572 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $8.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.23 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.04%
Volume: 229,600 shares. 3 month avg: 348,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/10/2019 to 12/05/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/10/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/09/2020 and a 38% chance by 04/09/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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AMN Healthcare (AMN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 126 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $60.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.55 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.71%
Volume: 240,400 shares. 3 month avg: 549,046 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/08/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Anixter International Inc (AXE)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 16 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $88.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $91.65 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 63.51%
Volume: 2,311,900 shares. 3 month avg: 173,640 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/15/2019 to 12/03/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Arrow Electronics (ARW)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 84 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $81.16
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.61 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.71%
Volume: 358,300 shares. 3 month avg: 447,163 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 11/20/2019 to 12/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Ashland Inc. (ASH)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 458 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $73.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.31 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.16%
Volume: 608,900 shares. 3 month avg: 610,854 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 11/21/2019 to 12/02/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Ball Corp (BLL)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 355 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $66.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.52 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 43.85%
Volume: 1,487,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,433,769 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/12/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Ciena Corp (CIEN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 382 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $36.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.17 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.02%
Volume: 4,964,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,226,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 11/13/2019 to 11/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (CTSH)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 401 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $62.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.95 or 2.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.00%
Volume: 2,882,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,250,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Continental Resources Inc. (CLR)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 540 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $31.11
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.51 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -22.59%
Volume: 2,371,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,362,946 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DTE Energy Company (DTE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 440 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $125.36
1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $121.85 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.65%
Volume: 901,500 shares. 3 month avg: 979,609 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/29/2019 to 12/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Duke Energy Corp (DUK)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 362 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $89.29
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $86.28 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.46%
Volume: 3,055,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,571,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 11/12/2019 to 12/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Helmerich and Payne Inc. (HP)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 551 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $38.64
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.74 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.40%
Volume: 1,236,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,165 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/31/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Lancaster Colony Corp (LANC)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 282 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $157.97
1 Month avg volatility: $2.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $151.85 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.68%
Volume: 64,600 shares. 3 month avg: 112,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/05/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Materion Corp (MTRN)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 483 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $58.13
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.31 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 29.21%
Volume: 121,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/24/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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On Assignment, Inc. (ASGN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 96 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $66.92
1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.28 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.79%
Volume: 150,500 shares. 3 month avg: 295,840 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/11/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Outfont Media (OUT)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 398 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $25.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.08 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 38.02%
Volume: 888,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 11/06/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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PG and E (PCG)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 578 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $9.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.49 or 23.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -58.82%
Volume: 21,666,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,870,049 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 10/28/2019 to 12/05/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/25/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/24/2020 and a 38% chance by 04/24/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Progressive Corp (PGR)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 513 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $72.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $69.16 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.07%
Volume: 3,500,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,017,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/11/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Quaker Chemical (KWR)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 539 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $151.99
1 Month avg volatility: $4.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $142.01 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.47%
Volume: 135,100 shares. 3 month avg: 69,343 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/21/2019 to 12/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 385 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $112.06
1 Month avg volatility: $3.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $102.87 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.31%
Volume: 1,296,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,365,482 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/21/2019 to 12/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Robert Half International (RHI)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 304 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $58.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.49 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.08%
Volume: 1,207,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,012,069 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 10/30/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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salesforce com (CRM)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 403 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $158.22
1 Month avg volatility: $3.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $149.24 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.51%
Volume: 7,126,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,417,257 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 10/23/2019 to 12/04/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Southern Company (SO)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 169 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $62.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.93 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 42.90%
Volume: 3,216,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,514,520 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 11/01/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Steelcase (SCS)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 241 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $18.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.69 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.01%
Volume: 394,100 shares. 3 month avg: 708,518 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 10/21/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Tractor Supply Co (TSCO)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 478 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $96.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $92.50 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.58%
Volume: 1,151,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,128,008 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 10/24/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 504 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $5.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.73 or 11.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.34%
Volume: 16,483,300 shares. 3 month avg: 13,612,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/15/2019 to 12/03/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Trex Company (TREX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 54 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $85.74
1 Month avg volatility: $2.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.11 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 44.44%
Volume: 453,700 shares. 3 month avg: 245,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/29/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Valmont Industries Inc. (VMI)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 94 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $142.45
1 Month avg volatility: $2.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $137.36 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 28.39%
Volume: 53,900 shares. 3 month avg: 117,540 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 11/12/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Thursday 12/5/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.5% or 46.03 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 556 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 375 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 181 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 67.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 178/320 or 55.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/106 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index formed a tight rectangle top chart pattern today (Wednesday). I show that by the two parallel red lines on the chart.

Price breaks out upward 63% of the time from the chart pattern, so that's what I'm expected on Thursday. The above probabilities agree with that assessment. Of course, anything can happen but that's the way to bet.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,919.07    
 Monthly S1  8,242.87  323.80   
 Weekly S2  8,464.48  221.61   
 Monthly Pivot  8,474.39  9.91   
 Weekly S1  8,515.58  41.19   
 Daily S2  8,535.48  19.90   
 Daily S1  8,551.07  15.60   
 Low  8,552.38  1.31   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  8,557.45  5.07   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,564.79  7.34   
 Close  8,566.67  1.88   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  8,567.98  1.31   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,568.63  0.65   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,572.46  3.83   
 Daily R1  8,583.57  11.11   
 High  8,584.88  1.31   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  8,600.48  15.60   
 Weekly Pivot  8,610.74  10.27   
 Weekly R1  8,661.84  51.09   
 Weekly R2  8,757.00  95.17   
 Monthly R1  8,798.19  41.19   
 Monthly R2  9,029.71  231.52   

Wednesday 12/4/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

As you can see, the indicator is signaling a red bar on the far right of the chart. It's changed the green bar (bullish) of a few months ago into a bearish signal with today's (Tuesday's) big drop.

However, a large recovery could remove the signal and that can happen for up to a week. So we won't really know if this is as bearish as it seems.

It's my feeling that this is a temporary setback. It's all China trade war related and fears of that come and go. So this will blow over shortly unless Trump wants to deflect more from impeachment.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 29% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 26%.
The fewest was 25% on 11/27/2019.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 482 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 14% on 11/27/2019.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines turned down this week compared to a week ago. They are following the index lower.

I am a bit surprised that the more sensitive red line dropped three percentage points from a week ago. That's a big move, suggesting a weakening general market. And maybe that means this retrace has legs.

Of course, time will answer that. It's been 2 months without a significant retrace, so one is overdue.

As I read over my notes, the prior chart suggests a temporary setback in the China trade war. But this chart says a retrace is overdue and might be lasting. I think I've covered the ground adequately! Smiley I'll let you decide which interpretation you like best.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/3/19. Slider Quiz! More Scallops

The index dropped by -1.0% or -268.37 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 374 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 183 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 191 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 51.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 196/333 or 58.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the inverted and ascending scallop chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  26,165.27    
 Monthly S1  26,974.16  808.88   
 Daily S2  27,564.25  590.10   
 Monthly Pivot  27,574.56  10.31   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  27,673.65  99.08   
 Weekly S2  27,701.39  27.75   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S1  27,742.22  40.82   
 Low  27,782.35  40.13   
 Close  27,783.04  0.69   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  27,891.74  108.71   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  27,907.45  15.71   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  27,946.10  38.64   
 Weekly Pivot  27,958.59  12.50   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  27,984.74  26.14   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  27,999.42  14.68   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  28,001.14  1.72   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Open  28,109.74  108.60   
 High  28,109.84  0.10   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R2  28,215.79  105.95   
 Daily R2  28,219.23  3.44   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  28,383.45  164.21   
 Monthly R2  28,983.85  600.41   

 
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