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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
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Patterns
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 06/23/2017
21,395 -2.53 0.0%
9,389 68.83 0.7%
725 -2.17 -0.3%
6,265 28.56 0.5%
2,438 3.80 0.2%
YTD
8.3%
3.8%
10.0%
16.4%
8.9%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 06/15/2017
21,600 or 21,000 by 07/01/2017
9,100 or 9,600 by 07/01/2017
720 or 745 by 07/01/2017
6,300 or 6,000 by 07/01/2017
2,525 or 2,390 by 07/01/2017

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December 2015 Headlines


Archives


Thursday 12/31/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.8% or -42.09 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 237 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 117 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 120 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 97/166 or 58.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 33/69 or 47.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

We see the red line being a support area that the index pierced late in the session.

The index jumped up from A to the red line. I expect the return trip to see the index drop back down to B.

Research suggests that the day before and after the New Year's holiday results in a lower market. That is what I expect to happen on Thursday. Point B is my target.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,732.89    
 Weekly S2  4,885.00  152.11   
 Monthly S1  4,899.37  14.37   
 Weekly S1  4,975.43  76.06   
 Weekly Pivot  5,019.35  43.93   
 Monthly Pivot  5,038.07  18.72   
 Daily S2  5,041.29  3.22   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S1  5,053.57  12.28   
 Low  5,065.68  12.11   
 Close  5,065.85  0.17   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  5,077.96  12.11   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,079.69  1.73   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,084.02  4.33   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,088.34  4.33   
 Daily R1  5,090.24  1.90   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  5,101.18  10.94   
 High  5,102.35  1.17   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  5,109.78  7.43   
 Daily R2  5,114.63  4.85   
 Weekly R2  5,153.70  39.07   
 Monthly R1  5,204.55  50.85   
 Monthly R2  5,343.25  138.70   

Wednesday 12/30/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. It shows signal changes. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows the story. The indicator turned bullish days ago and it continues to signal an upward move in the indicator as the green bars indicate.

I think the index is going higher so I changed my targets to reflect that. I'll re-evaluate it in mid January.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 12/29/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.1% or -23.9 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1259 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 652 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 607 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 105/176 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/53 or 52.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I drew the red line from the right, to the left, to highlight a support (now resistance) area.

The green line is overhead resistance setup by the last week's price action. I expect the index to push through that resistance tomorrow.

$ $ $

I hope you had a pleasant and safe holiday. For this coming holiday, please do not drive drunk. Buzz driving is drunk driving.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,730.68    
 Weekly S2  16,926.45  195.77   
 Monthly S1  17,129.47  203.02   
 Weekly S1  17,227.36  97.89   
 Daily S2  17,401.28  173.92   
 Weekly Pivot  17,417.64  16.36   
 Low  17,437.34  19.70   
 Daily S1  17,464.77  27.43   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,475.37  10.60   
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,487.12  11.75   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,498.87  11.75   
 Daily Pivot  17,500.84  1.97   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  17,515.53  14.69   
 Close  17,528.27  12.74   
 Open  17,535.66  7.39   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  17,536.90  1.24   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  17,564.33  27.43   
 Daily R2  17,600.40  36.06   
 Weekly R1  17,718.55  118.15   
 Weekly R2  17,908.83  190.28   
 Monthly R1  17,914.32  5.49   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  18,300.38  386.05   

Tuesday 12/29/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.1% or -23.9 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1259 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 652 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 607 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 105/176 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/53 or 52.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I drew the red line from the right, to the left, to highlight a support (now resistance) area.

The green line is overhead resistance setup by the last week's price action. I expect the index to push through that resistance tomorrow.

$ $ $

I hope you had a pleasant and safe holiday. For this coming holiday, please do not drive drunk. Buzz driving is drunk driving.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,730.68    
 Weekly S2  16,926.45  195.77   
 Monthly S1  17,129.47  203.02   
 Weekly S1  17,227.36  97.89   
 Daily S2  17,401.28  173.92   
 Weekly Pivot  17,417.64  16.36   
 Low  17,437.34  19.70   
 Daily S1  17,464.77  27.43   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,475.37  10.60   
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,487.12  11.75   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,498.87  11.75   
 Daily Pivot  17,500.84  1.97   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  17,515.53  14.69   
 Close  17,528.27  12.74   
 Open  17,535.66  7.39   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  17,536.90  1.24   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  17,564.33  27.43   
 Daily R2  17,600.40  36.06   
 Weekly R1  17,718.55  118.15   
 Weekly R2  17,908.83  190.28   
 Monthly R1  17,914.32  5.49   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  18,300.38  386.05   

Monday 12/28/15. Market Monday: A Turn Coming

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily chart.

 

I drew two red lines, one along the top and one along the bottom of recent price action.

 

I'm thinking that the index will rise to touch the top trendline and then drop. That's why I haven't changed my targets much ("Tom's Targets" at page top).

 

I still expect a drop. Maybe it'll surprise me and push through the top trendline.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a lizard from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 123.07 points.
Tuesday: Up 165.65 points.
Wednesday: Up 185.34 points.
Thursday: Down 50.44 points.
Friday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 423.62 points or 2.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 125.41 points or 2.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 55.44 points or 2.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.4% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     14.2% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
     3.5% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     17.6% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
     3.5% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     10.4% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

Top

Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 ThBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 12/24/2015, the CPI had:

1 bearish patterns,
19 bullish patterns,
594 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 95.0%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,505  17,529  17,567  17,591  17,630 
Weekly  16,934  17,243  17,426  17,734  17,917 
Monthly  16,739  17,145  17,523  17,930  18,308 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,054  2,057  2,062  2,066  2,071 
Weekly  1,983  2,022  2,045  2,084  2,106 
Monthly  1,942  2,001  2,053  2,112  2,164 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,032  5,040  5,052  5,060  5,071 
Weekly  4,879  4,964  5,014  5,098  5,148 
Monthly  4,727  4,888  5,032  5,193  5,337 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 42.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 19.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 20.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 44.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 26.0%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
17Triangle, symmetrical
7Pipe top
6Triangle, ascending
5Head-and-shoulders top
4Double Top, Adam and Adam
3Triangle, descending
3Dead-cat bounce
3Broadening top
2Rising wedge
2Flag, high and tight

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. Internet
2. Short ETFs2. Short ETFs
3. Electric Utility (West)3. Electric Utility (West)
4. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)4. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. Furn/Home Furnishings
50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Retail (Special Lines)53. Retail (Special Lines)
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Thursday 12/24/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.9% or 44.82 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 268 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 178 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 90 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 66.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/165 or 58.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 33/69 or 47.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart pattern is one we haven't seen for a while intraday. It's a broadening formation, right-angled and ascending.

As the chart shows, the two red lines broadening out. The bottom of the pattern is flat and the top slopes upward.

Breakouts from the chart pattern are upward just 34% of the time, which surprised me. Since the top slopes upward, I would expect an upward bias to the pattern.

Still, I expect an upward breakout but Thursday is a half day and with low volume, anything can happen (high volatility?).

Notice the small depression at A. This is a partial decline. It suggests an immediate upward breakout. Let us watch this to see how the index behaves intraday, and on a half-day at that.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,726.25    
 Weekly S2  4,785.04  58.79   
 Monthly S1  4,886.09  101.05   
 Weekly S1  4,915.49  29.40   
 Weekly Pivot  5,002.03  86.55   
 Daily S2  5,011.84  9.80   
 Low  5,020.44  8.60   
 Open  5,025.55  5.11   
 Daily S1  5,028.88  3.33   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,030.24  1.35   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  5,031.43  1.19   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,033.27  1.83   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,036.29  3.03   
 Daily Pivot  5,037.49  1.20   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,045.93  8.44   
 High  5,046.09  0.16   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  5,054.53  8.44   
 Daily R2  5,063.14  8.60   
 Weekly R1  5,132.48  69.34   
 Monthly R1  5,191.27  58.79   
 Weekly R2  5,219.02  27.75   
 Monthly R2  5,336.61  117.59   

Wednesday 12/23/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: Bullish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I didn't show it, but this indicator has bullish divergence between the indicator and the index.

The indicator is near or at the top of the scale and yet the index has just begun to turn upward.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

Notice the two green price bars on the far right. They are bullish and they could mean the beginning of another upward move as the index cycles up and down.

It is not a buy signal until 7 calendar days have gone buy but the indicator is usually solid after 3 days. Until a week has passed, the indicator could change.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 12/22/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.7% or 123.07 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 638 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 349 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 289 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 104/175 or 59.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/53 or 52.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index has bounced off support shown by the horizontal red line. That suggests a continued move up on Tuesday. Whether that will actually happen, we can only wait and see.

I am intrigued by the steep move down at A and the quick rise at B.

Do we have the same situation brewing now? Compare A with C. Both are steep drops. Does it follow that price will zip up like it did at B? I hope so because I have some trades I want to execute before year's end.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,640.06    
 Weekly S2  16,718.45  78.39   
 Monthly S1  16,945.84  227.39   
 Weekly S1  16,985.03  39.19   
 Daily S2  17,057.94  72.91   
 Low  17,116.73  58.79   
 Daily S1  17,154.78  38.05   
 Open  17,154.94  0.16   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,176.18  21.24   
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,194.54  18.36   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,212.91  18.37   
 Daily Pivot  17,213.57  0.66   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  17,251.62  38.05   
 High  17,272.36  20.74   
 Daily R1  17,310.41  38.05   
 Daily R2  17,369.20  58.79   
 Weekly Pivot  17,390.90  21.70   
 Monthly Pivot  17,430.09  39.19   
 Weekly R1  17,657.48  227.39   
 Monthly R1  17,735.87  78.38   
 Weekly R2  18,063.35  327.48   
 Monthly R2  18,220.12  156.77   

Monday 12/21/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the transports on the daily scale.

Not much is going on here.

The two red lines show a broadening top. It breaks out downward.

At A, a pullback occurs that brings the index back to near the breakout price.

Then, as is typical for pullbacks, the index drops.

Looking at the longer term chart (not shown), but it appears the index will drop more to as far as 7,000. That is where a thick layer of support resides.

The index closed Friday at 7364.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 103.29 points.
Tuesday: Up 156.41 points.
Wednesday: Up 224.18 points.
Thursday: Down 253.25 points.
Friday: Down 367.29 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 136.66 points or 0.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 10.39 points or 0.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 6.82 points or 0.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.7% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     11.4% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
     5.9% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     14.7% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
     6.1% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     7.4% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Gross domestic product8:30 TBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Existing home sales10:00 TCCounts sales of used homes.
Durable goods orders8:30 WBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.
Personal income & consumption8:30 WC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Michigan sentiment10:00 WB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.
New home sales10:00 WC+Shows sales of single-family homes.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 12/18/2015, the CPI had:

58 bearish patterns,
1 bullish patterns,
206 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 1.7%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 3 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  16,878  17,003  17,250  17,375  17,622 
Weekly  16,677  16,903  17,350  17,575  18,022 
Monthly  16,599  16,864  17,389  17,654  18,179 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  1,982  1,994  2,017  2,029  2,053 
Weekly  1,942  1,974  2,025  2,057  2,109 
Monthly  1,923  1,964  2,034  2,075  2,145 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,872  4,897  4,947  4,973  5,022 
Weekly  4,744  4,834  4,961  5,051  5,178 
Monthly  4,685  4,804  4,990  5,109  5,296 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 15.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 19.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 14.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 20.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 17.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 26.0%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
21Triangle, symmetrical
12Head-and-shoulders top
7Triangle, ascending
7Pipe top
4Double Top, Adam and Adam
4Broadening top
4Triangle, descending
3Dead-cat bounce
3Rising wedge
2Triple top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. Internet
2. Short ETFs2. Furn/Home Furnishings
3. Electric Utility (West)3. Retail Building Supply
4. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)4. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. Aerospace/Defense
50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing51. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Retail (Special Lines)
53. Retail (Special Lines)53. Natural Gas (Diversified)
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 12/18/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 576 stocks searched, or 2.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ANFTriangle, ascending      11/25/201512/17/2015Apparel
AMGNTriangle, ascending      10/29/201512/17/2015Biotechnology
AVPFlag, high and tight      11/13/201512/17/2015Toiletries/Cosmetics
BMYRising wedge      08/19/201512/17/2015Drug
GFFPipe top      11/30/201512/07/2015Building Materials
HETriangle, descending      11/06/201512/14/2015Electric Utility (West)
KMTDead-cat bounce      12/15/201512/17/2015Metal Fabricating
LENTriangle, ascending      09/29/201512/17/2015Homebuilding
SUNEFlag, high and tight      11/20/201512/17/2015Semiconductor
TSCOTriangle, symmetrical      11/05/201512/17/2015Retail Building Supply
VRSNHead-and-shoulders top      11/23/201512/16/2015Internet
IYCTriangle, descending      10/14/201512/14/2015Retail Store
RTHBroadening top      11/30/201512/17/2015Retail Store
EWKBroadening wedge, ascending      10/07/201512/17/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 12/10/2015 and 12/17/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abercrombie and Fitch Co. (ANF)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 42 out of 567
12/17/15 close: $25.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.57 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.57%
Volume: 2,114,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,169,435 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 11/25/2015 to 12/17/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 127 out of 567
12/17/15 close: $161.43
1 Month avg volatility: $3.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $152.12 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.34%
Volume: 3,699,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,919,837 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 10/29/2015 to 12/17/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Avon Products (AVP)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 515 out of 567
12/17/15 close: $4.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.33 or 17.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -57.08%
Volume: 18,868,000 shares. 3 month avg: 10,928,015 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 11/13/2015 to 12/17/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/04/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/03/2016 and a 38% chance by 05/04/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 119 out of 567
12/17/15 close: $69.28
1 Month avg volatility: $1.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $73.66 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.36%
Volume: 7,066,700 shares. 3 month avg: 6,846,202 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 08/19/2015 to 12/17/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 87 out of 567
12/17/15 close: $17.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.52 or 7.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 30.00%
Volume: 148,700 shares. 3 month avg: 177,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 11/30/2015 to 12/07/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 234 out of 567
12/17/15 close: $29.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.40 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.35%
Volume: 544,400 shares. 3 month avg: 319,349 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 11/06/2015 to 12/14/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Kennametal (KMT)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 536 out of 567
12/17/15 close: $17.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.12 or 10.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -49.87%
Volume: 3,158,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,221,620 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 12/15/2015 to 12/17/2015

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Lennar Corp. Cl A (LEN)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 130 out of 567
12/17/15 close: $48.68
1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.44 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.64%
Volume: 4,857,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,611,500 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 09/29/2015 to 12/17/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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SunEdison (SUNE)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 566 out of 567
12/17/15 close: $6.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.72 or 24.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -67.97%
Volume: 82,295,800 shares. 3 month avg: 48,693,602 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 11/20/2015 to 12/17/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/10/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/09/2016 and a 38% chance by 05/10/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Tractor Supply Co (TSCO)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 256 out of 567
12/17/15 close: $85.87
1 Month avg volatility: $2.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.69 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.94%
Volume: 777,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,175,082 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/05/2015 to 12/17/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Verisign (VRSN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 11 out of 567
12/17/15 close: $87.85
1 Month avg volatility: $1.94. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $94.48 or 7.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 54.12%
Volume: 1,171,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,146,808 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 11/23/2015 to 12/16/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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DJ US consumer svcs index fnd (retail) (IYC)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 168 out of 567
12/17/15 close: $144.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $150.86 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.09%
Volume: 78,200 shares. 3 month avg: 69,165 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 10/14/2015 to 12/14/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Market Vectors Retail (RTH)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 126 out of 567
12/17/15 close: $78.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $81.97 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.84%
Volume: 36,500 shares. 3 month avg: 77,294 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/30/2015 to 12/17/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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MSCI Belgium Investable Mkt Idx (EWK)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 159 out of 567
12/17/15 close: $17.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.41 or 2.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.77%
Volume: 7,117,400 shares. 3 month avg: 282,612 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 10/07/2015 to 12/17/2015
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Thursday 12/17/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.5% or 75.77 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 102 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 61 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 41 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 59.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/164 or 58.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 33/69 or 47.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index shows a chart pattern, highlighted in red. Do you know what it is called?

It's a measured move up chart pattern. The pattern appears in three parts, the first leg (A), the corrective phase (B), and the second leg (C).

That is not the exciting part. The exciting part is what happens next. In the patterns I looked at, the stock retraced to the corrective phase, B.

Thus, look for the index to drop a bit and find support between 5,020 and 5,000 before rising.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,784.08    
 Weekly S2  4,835.42  51.34   
 Monthly S1  4,927.60  92.19   
 Weekly S1  4,953.27  25.67   
 Daily S2  4,961.22  7.95   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  4,992.63  31.41   
 Daily S1  5,016.18  23.55   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,025.62  9.44   
 Open  5,033.48  7.86   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,035.81  2.33   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,046.00  10.19   
 Weekly Pivot  5,046.53  0.53   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  5,047.58  1.06   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Monthly Pivot  5,052.19  4.60   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  5,071.13  18.94   
 High  5,078.99  7.86   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  5,102.54  23.55   
 Daily R2  5,133.94  31.41   
 Weekly R1  5,164.38  30.44   
 Monthly R1  5,195.71  31.33   
 Weekly R2  5,257.64  61.92   
 Monthly R2  5,320.30  62.66   

Wednesday 12/16/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator is moving up and has entered the neutral zone. That means it's not bearish nor bullish.

The signal is clearer on the next chart.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The most recent price bar shows a white stripe which is difficult to see on the chart.

With the Federal Reserve reporting their interest rate policy, I would expect the markets to move up on the news. I think that's what happened the last time the market anticipated bad news... But let's see what happens first.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 12/15/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.6% or 103.29 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 820 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 456 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 364 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 103/174 or 59.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/53 or 52.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index intraday shows a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern.

I have cleverly labeled the left shoulder (LS), head (H), and right shoulder (RS). I think the index crossed above the red neckline, but I don't know if it closed there.

Regardless, I think this is a bullish omen for Tuesday's trading. I'm looking for a higher close.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,793.85    
 Weekly S2  16,866.51  72.66   
 Daily S2  17,055.45  188.94   
 Monthly S1  17,081.17  25.73   
 Weekly S1  17,117.50  36.33   
 Low  17,138.47  20.97   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  17,211.97  73.50   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,229.98  18.01   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,258.24  28.27   
 Open  17,277.11  18.87   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,286.51  9.40   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  17,295.00  8.48   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  17,368.50  73.50   
 High  17,378.02  9.52   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  17,451.52  73.50   
 Weekly Pivot  17,481.50  29.97   
 Monthly Pivot  17,497.76  16.26   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R2  17,534.55  36.79   
 Weekly R1  17,732.49  197.95   
 Monthly R1  17,785.08  52.59   
 Weekly R2  18,096.49  311.40   
 Monthly R2  18,201.67  105.18   

Monday 12/14/15. Market Monday: A Look At Oil

My Prediction

Picture of the us oil fund on the weekly scale.

I thought I'd take a look at oil since it has been making the news lately. Certainly we have felt it at the pump.

The chart shows the United States Oil fund.

The chart showing the red line is the fund on the weekly scale. The red line is a support line. The fund pierced support late last year and collapsed.

The word on the street is that Saudi Arabia will continue to pump oil to make the US shale oil producers bleed enough to send them out of the market.

Clearly there has to be a price where the cost of production exceeds the profit potential. Maintained long enough, the marginal producers will shut down production.

The inset shows the oil fund on the daily chart.

The fund plunged through a minor support area at 12. It suggests it'll fall further in the coming days. The only caution I bring up when making that statement, is that this fund is a derivative. It's not oil but a fund based on the price of oil. The underlying might show a different view.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 117.12 points.
Tuesday: Down 162.51 points.
Wednesday: Down 75.7 points.
Thursday: Up 82.45 points.
Friday: Down 309.54 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 582.42 points or 3.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 208.8 points or 4.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 79.32 points or 3.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.9% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     12.3% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
     5.7% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     14.9% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
     5.7% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     7.8% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Consumer price index8:30 TB+Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services.
Building permits8:30 WB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Housing starts8:30 WB-Number of homes beginning construction.
Capacity utilization9:15 WB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.
Industrial production9:15 WB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Rate decision2:00 W?The Federal Reserves reports on interest rate changes.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Leading indicators10:00 ThD-Summary of already known reports.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
VIX expiresWednesday
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 12/11/2015, the CPI had:

81 bearish patterns,
2 bullish patterns,
168 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 2.4%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 3 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,013  17,139  17,357  17,483  17,701 
Weekly  16,832  17,049  17,447  17,664  18,062 
Monthly  16,759  17,012  17,463  17,716  18,167 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  1,984  1,998  2,023  2,037  2,061 
Weekly  1,956  1,984  2,037  2,066  2,119 
Monthly  1,946  1,979  2,042  2,075  2,137 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,885  4,909  4,953  4,977  5,020 
Weekly  4,790  4,862  5,001  5,073  5,212 
Monthly  4,738  4,836  5,006  5,104  5,274 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.2%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 19.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 26.6%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 20.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 29.4%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 26.0%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
22Pipe bottom
21Triangle, symmetrical
6Head-and-shoulders top
5Triangle, descending
5Pipe top
4Broadening top
4Double Top, Adam and Adam
4Triangle, ascending
3Dead-cat bounce
2Rectangle top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. Internet
2. Furn/Home Furnishings2. Furn/Home Furnishings
3. Retail Building Supply3. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
4. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)4. Insurance (Life)
5. Aerospace/Defense5. Aerospace/Defense
50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
51. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment51. Natural Gas (Diversified)
52. Retail (Special Lines)52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
53. Natural Gas (Diversified)53. Retail (Special Lines)
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 12/11/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 575 stocks searched, or 2.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ANIKDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/13/201512/08/2015Biotechnology
ATOTriangle, symmetrical      11/04/201512/09/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
BSETPipe top      11/23/201511/30/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
CIENDead-cat bounce      12/10/201512/10/2015Telecom. Equipment
CEBPipe top      11/23/201511/30/2015Information Services
^DJTBroadening top      10/09/201512/04/2015None
HNIPipe top      11/23/201511/30/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
JBLUTriangle, symmetrical      10/12/201512/10/2015Air Transport
MHOPipe top      11/23/201511/30/2015Homebuilding
MWDead-cat bounce      12/10/201512/10/2015Retail (Special Lines)
MYGNTriangle, symmetrical      11/04/201512/08/2015Biotechnology
UILPipe top      11/23/201511/30/2015Electric Utility (East)
EISTriangle, symmetrical      09/15/201512/10/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
IXNBroadening top      11/20/201512/09/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
XLVTriangle, symmetrical      10/29/201512/10/2015Drug
XLBTriangle, ascending      11/03/201512/10/2015Building Materials

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 12/03/2015 and 12/10/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Anika Therapeutics Inc (ANIK)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 63 out of 567
12/10/15 close: $37.63
1 Month avg volatility: $1.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.53 or 15.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.63%
Volume: 526,600 shares. 3 month avg: 143,498 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 11/13/2015 to 12/08/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

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Atmos Energy Corp (ATO)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 38 out of 567
12/10/15 close: $61.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.09 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.69%
Volume: 446,200 shares. 3 month avg: 609,543 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/04/2015 to 12/09/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Bassett Furniture Industries Inc (BSET)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 228 out of 567
12/10/15 close: $27.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.99 or 9.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 40.75%
Volume: 42,200 shares. 3 month avg: 81,878 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 11/23/2015 to 11/30/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Ciena Corp (CIEN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 415 out of 567
12/10/15 close: $20.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.57 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.25%
Volume: 25,473,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,880,526 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 12/10/2015 to 12/10/2015

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Corporate Executie Board Co (CEB)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 436 out of 567
12/10/15 close: $66.83
1 Month avg volatility: $1.71. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $71.90 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.86%
Volume: 335,800 shares. 3 month avg: 159,817 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 11/23/2015 to 11/30/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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DJ 20 Transportation (^DJT)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
12/10/15 close: $7,671.47
1 Month avg volatility: $123.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7,975.27 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.07%
Volume: 17,784,300 shares. 3 month avg: 18,077,629 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 10/09/2015 to 12/04/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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HNI (HON Industries) (HNI)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 443 out of 567
12/10/15 close: $39.12
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.88 or 7.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -23.38%
Volume: 170,900 shares. 3 month avg: 138,828 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 11/23/2015 to 11/30/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 15 out of 567
12/10/15 close: $25.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.78 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 60.40%
Volume: 6,620,800 shares. 3 month avg: 7,378,269 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/12/2015 to 12/10/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 296 out of 567
12/10/15 close: $21.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.78 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.75%
Volume: 178,200 shares. 3 month avg: 249,725 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 11/23/2015 to 11/30/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Mens Warehouse (MW)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 567
12/10/15 close: $15.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.64 or 23.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -65.41%
Volume: 22,150,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,242,663 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 12/10/2015 to 12/10/2015

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Myriad Genetics Inc (MYGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 20 out of 567
12/10/15 close: $42.57
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.86 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.99%
Volume: 426,300 shares. 3 month avg: 915,002 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/04/2015 to 12/08/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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UIL Holdings Corp (UIL)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 222 out of 567
12/10/15 close: $46.96
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.42 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.85%
Volume: 450,900 shares. 3 month avg: 216,115 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 11/23/2015 to 11/30/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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MSCI Israel Cap Invest Mt Index (EIS)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 242 out of 567
12/10/15 close: $50.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.01 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.25%
Volume: 31,000 shares. 3 month avg: 87,238 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/15/2015 to 12/10/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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S and P Global Tech Sector Index fund (IXN)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 170 out of 567
12/10/15 close: $99.82
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $102.52 or 2.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.21%
Volume: 21,300 shares. 3 month avg: 47,345 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/20/2015 to 12/09/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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SPDR Health Care Select Sector (XLV)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 237 out of 567
12/10/15 close: $71.35
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.75 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.34%
Volume: 9,778,500 shares. 3 month avg: 17,345,978 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/29/2015 to 12/10/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SPDR Materials Select Sector (XLB)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 315 out of 567
12/10/15 close: $45.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.52 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.08%
Volume: 5,285,800 shares. 3 month avg: 7,740,982 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 11/03/2015 to 12/10/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Thursday 12/10/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -1.5% or -75.37 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 99 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 44 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 55 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 55.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/164 or 58.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 33/68 or 48.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The horizontal red line shows where support is. Notice that the index dipped slightly below the region, but it's in the general vicinity of support now (since it closed above the region near day's end).

If the index closes higher on Thursday, it could rise up to reach the green line. That's the start of resistance, so the index could really go a bit higher, say, 5110.

If the index drops, it'll be off the chart. Uh-oh.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,767.99    
 Monthly S1  4,895.43  127.44   
 Weekly S2  4,905.40  9.97   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Daily S2  4,936.87  31.47   
 Weekly S1  4,964.14  27.27   
 Daily S1  4,979.87  15.73   
 Low  5,000.12  20.25   
 Close  5,022.87  22.75   
 Monthly Pivot  5,036.10  13.23   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,040.71  4.61   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  5,043.12  2.41   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,053.25  10.13   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,065.78  12.54   
 Weekly Pivot  5,070.45  4.67   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  5,077.21  6.76   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  5,086.12  8.91   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  5,106.37  20.25   
 Weekly R1  5,129.19  22.82   
 Daily R2  5,149.37  20.18   
 Monthly R1  5,163.54  14.17   
 Weekly R2  5,235.50  71.96   
 Monthly R2  5,304.21  68.71   

Wednesday 12/9/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

As the chart shows, the indicator has plunged leading the market lower.

Now that it has hit bottom or come very close, I would expect a bounce. But that may not be reflected in the indices.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

This chart shows the indicator has been bearish for about a week now and is still in bearish territory.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 12/8/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.7% or -117.12 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 559 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 274 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 285 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 51.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 103/174 or 59.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/52 or 51.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The red line is a support line drawn from the right side of the chart until it intersects the index at A. Who would have known that the little blip at A would act as support two days later? But it did.

It appears that the index is recovering and I expect a higher close tomorrow (Tuesday). The above probabilities suggest a lower close. One of us will be right.

In these markets, it's really folly to try to predict what is going to happen anyway.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,872.18    
 Weekly S2  17,209.86  337.69   
 Monthly S1  17,301.34  91.48   
 Weekly S1  17,470.19  168.84   
 Daily S2  17,532.18  61.99   
 Daily S1  17,631.34  99.17   
 Low  17,639.25  7.91   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  17,639.60  0.35   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  17,685.88  46.29   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,718.03  32.15   
 Close  17,730.51  12.48   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  17,738.42  7.91   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,742.37  3.95   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,766.71  24.34   
 Daily R1  17,837.58  70.88   
 Open  17,845.49  7.91   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  17,845.49  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  17,944.66  99.17   
 Weekly R1  17,946.21  1.55   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  18,068.76  122.56   
 Weekly R2  18,161.90  93.14   
 Monthly R2  18,407.02  245.12   

Monday 12/7/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 index on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The two red lines outline a potential symmetrical triangle.

I write "potential" because it does not have enough trendline touches. I now require at least 5 touches, three on one side and two on the other.

The two horizontal green lines show support and resistance areas based on peaks and valleys on what you can see in the chart (left side).

If the triangle formation works, the index will bounce off the top red line and drop to the lower one.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 78.57 points.
Tuesday: Up 168.43 points.
Wednesday: Down 158.67 points.
Thursday: Down 252.01 points.
Friday: Up 369.96 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 49.14 points or 0.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 14.75 points or 0.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 1.58 points or 0.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.7% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     16.1% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
     1.7% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     19.8% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
     2.0% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     12.0% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Consumer credit3:00 MD-Measures auto, credit card and other debt.
Wholesale inventories10:00 WD-Wholesale sales and inventory statistics.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
International trade8:30 ThC+Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others.
Treasury budget2:00 ThDTracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing).
Producer price index8:30 FB-Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation.
Retail sales8:30 FA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
Business inventories10:00 FC-Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 12/04/2015, the CPI had:

20 bearish patterns,
11 bullish patterns,
128 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 35.5%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 3 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,348  17,598  17,732  17,982  18,116 
Weekly  17,249  17,548  17,725  18,024  18,201 
Monthly  16,911  17,379  17,679  18,147  18,446 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,036  2,064  2,079  2,107  2,122 
Weekly  2,018  2,055  2,079  2,117  2,141 
Monthly  1,979  2,035  2,076  2,132  2,173 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,007  5,075  5,111  5,178  5,214 
Weekly  4,945  5,044  5,110  5,209  5,275 
Monthly  4,808  4,975  5,076  5,243  5,344 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 43.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months up 28.5%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks up 21.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 36.2%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks up 24.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 30.8%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
21Pipe bottom
13Triangle, symmetrical
7Dead-cat bounce
5Broadening top
5Triangle, descending
4Double Top, Adam and Adam
3Triple top
3Triangle, ascending
3Head-and-shoulders top
3Broadening top, right-angled and descending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. Internet
2. Furn/Home Furnishings2. Furn/Home Furnishings
3. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)3. Insurance (Life)
4. Insurance (Life)4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Aerospace/Defense5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
51. Natural Gas (Diversified)51. Natural Gas (Diversified)
52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment52. Retail (Special Lines)
53. Retail (Special Lines)53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Saturday 12/5/15. CPSetup: A New Chart Pattern!

The CPSetup pattern

I found and finished researching a new chart pattern which I call the CPSetup, for lack of another title.

I show an example of one in the figure on the right.

You find it in a strong uptrend (A).

Price moves horizontally for a time (B), forming the start of the pattern. The bottom of this region is flat, resting on support, but the top can be any shape.

When price falls through support, it drops to C, but does a quick recovery.

The buy signal occurs when price closes above the top of the chart pattern and rises to D.

For complete details, visit the link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 12/4/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 575 stocks searched, or 2.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 12 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABAXTriangle, ascending      10/30/201512/02/2015Medical Supplies
AEETriangle, symmetrical      11/09/201511/30/2015Electric Utility (Central)
CIENRising wedge      09/09/201512/02/2015Telecom. Equipment
DVNTriangle, symmetrical      11/06/201512/01/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
FISVBroadening top, right-angled and descending      10/28/201512/03/2015Computer Software and Svcs
GXPHead-and-shoulders top      11/11/201512/01/2015Electric Utility (Central)
PCGTriangle, symmetrical      11/05/201512/01/2015Electric Utility (West)
PNWTriangle, ascending      11/09/201512/01/2015Electric Utility (West)
PESTriangle, symmetrical      09/30/201512/03/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PFGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/06/201512/02/2015Insurance (Diversified)
PGTriangle, symmetrical      11/03/201512/03/2015Household Products
RAXPipe bottom      11/16/201511/23/2015E-Commerce
SONSRectangle top      11/03/201512/03/2015Telecom. Equipment
SOTriangle, symmetrical      10/22/201512/01/2015Electric Utility (East)
UNMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/23/201512/02/2015Insurance (Diversified)
XELTriangle, symmetrical      11/06/201512/01/2015Electric Utility (West)
PXJTriangle, descending      10/27/201512/03/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 11/26/2015 and 12/03/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abaxis Inc (ABAX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 151 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $53.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.09 or 8.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.16%
Volume: 192,300 shares. 3 month avg: 179,505 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 10/30/2015 to 12/02/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Ameren (AEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 96 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $42.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.31 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.41%
Volume: 3,152,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,729,029 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/09/2015 to 11/30/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Ciena Corp (CIEN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 174 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $24.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.12 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 26.07%
Volume: 1,852,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,677,594 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 09/09/2015 to 12/02/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Devon Energy Corp. (DVN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 523 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $41.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.04 or 9.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -32.85%
Volume: 9,812,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,043,360 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/06/2015 to 12/01/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Fiserv, Inc (FISV)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 51 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $93.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $90.71 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 32.13%
Volume: 1,799,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,240,268 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 10/28/2015 to 12/03/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Great Plains Energy (GXP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 129 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $26.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $27.35 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.48%
Volume: 1,494,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,225,818 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 11/11/2015 to 12/01/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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PG and E (PCG)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 187 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $51.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.51 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.69%
Volume: 3,279,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,313,257 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/05/2015 to 12/01/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 119 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $61.11
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.56 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.54%
Volume: 2,126,500 shares. 3 month avg: 962,397 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 11/09/2015 to 12/01/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Pioneer Energy Services (PES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 559 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $2.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.06 or 22.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -51.99%
Volume: 824,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,207,777 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/30/2015 to 12/03/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 320 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $48.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $52.61 or 9.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.20%
Volume: 3,629,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,295,642 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/06/2015 to 12/02/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Procter and Gamble Co (PG)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 227 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $75.74
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $73.11 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.85%
Volume: 11,178,600 shares. 3 month avg: 9,288,803 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/03/2015 to 12/03/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Rackspace Hosting (RAX)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 474 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $29.71
1 Month avg volatility: $1.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.80 or 9.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -36.53%
Volume: 2,636,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,499,435 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/16/2015 to 11/23/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Sonus Networks, Inc. (SONS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 390 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $6.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.14 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -66.40%
Volume: 450,100 shares. 3 month avg: 555,766 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/03/2015 to 12/03/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Southern Company (SO)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 133 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $44.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.38 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.04%
Volume: 6,922,400 shares. 3 month avg: 4,654,868 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/22/2015 to 12/01/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Unum Group (UNM)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 171 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $36.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.69 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.64%
Volume: 2,127,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,399,572 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/23/2015 to 12/02/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Xcel Energy, Inc (XEL)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 113 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $34.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.13 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.18%
Volume: 7,790,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,542,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/06/2015 to 12/01/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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PowerShares Dynamic Oil Services (PXJ)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 462 out of 567
12/3/15 close: $13.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.14 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -23.69%
Volume: 9,400 shares. 3 month avg: 14,917 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 10/27/2015 to 12/03/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Thursday 12/3/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.6% or -33.09 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 295 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 126 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 169 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 57.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/164 or 58.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/67 or 47.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Bullish view: The long horizontal red line suggests the index could find support and bounce upward.

Bearish view: The height of the green line, above the red one, reflected below the red line, could mark the depth of the decline.

It suggests a drop to about 5060.

Take your pick as to what will happen on Thursday's close.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,810.31    
 Monthly S1  4,966.76  156.46   
 Weekly S2  5,018.36  51.60   
 Monthly Pivot  5,065.12  46.76   
 Weekly S1  5,070.79  5.67   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S2  5,079.43  8.64   
 Daily S1  5,101.32  21.90   
 Weekly Pivot  5,102.57  1.25   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  5,117.15  14.58   
 Close  5,123.22  6.07   
 Daily Pivot  5,139.05  15.83   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,139.92  0.88   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,146.96  7.04   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,154.00  7.04   
 Weekly R1  5,155.00  1.00   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  5,158.82  3.82   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R1  5,160.94  2.12   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  5,176.77  15.83   
 Weekly R2  5,186.78  10.01   
 Daily R2  5,198.67  11.89   
 Monthly R1  5,221.57  22.91   
 Monthly R2  5,319.93  98.35   

Wednesday 12/2/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The index and the indicator continue to predict a market that will go higher.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The green bars show the bullish state as it unfolded about two weeks ago.

I'm surprised that we haven't seen a larger retrace of the move up from the October low. This chart doesn't show any hit of weakness, yet.

However, the indicator is near 100, so you can expect it to drop and that means market weakness. The index might not drop much, though, if the strength it's been showing over the last 2 weeks continues.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 12/1/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.4% or -78.57 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 879 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 446 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 433 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 102/173 or 59.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/52 or 51.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

This is a difficult chart to interpret. When I first looked at it, my impression is that the index is going down. That could happen, of course.

I drew two red lines, support and resistance lines, highlighting the top and bottom of the trading range over the last several days. It suggests the index will bounce off the lower red line and bounce to the upper one.

So there you have it. The index could go down or it could up. Take your pick.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,868.65    
 Monthly S1  17,294.28  425.64   
 Weekly S2  17,572.33  278.05   
 Monthly Pivot  17,636.07  63.73   
 Daily S2  17,641.53  5.47   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly S1  17,646.13  4.59   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  17,680.73  34.60   
 Low  17,719.79  39.06   
 Close  17,719.92  0.13   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  17,757.30  37.38   
 Daily Pivot  17,758.98  1.68   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,764.66  5.67   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,778.52  13.86   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,792.38  13.86   
 Daily R1  17,798.18  5.80   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  17,802.84  4.66   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  17,831.10  28.26   
 High  17,837.24  6.14   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  17,876.43  39.19   
 Weekly R2  17,942.27  65.84   
 Monthly R1  18,061.70  119.43   
 Monthly R2  18,403.49  341.78   

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