Subscribe to RSS feeds Bulkowski Blog via RSS

Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

Support this site! Clicking the links (below) takes you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING, they pay for the referral.

Picture of the Tears for Bumper.
Kindle
Nook
Picture of the head's law.
Kindle
Paperback
Nook
Chart Patterns: After the Buy
Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition book.
Trading Basics: Evolution of a Trader book.
Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Swing and Day Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Visual Guide to Chart Patterns book.
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book.
Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
Class Elliott Wave Fundamentals Psychology Quiz Research Setups Software Tutorials More...
Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 05/26/2017
21,080 -2.67 0.0%
9,176 12.36 0.1%
720 -0.08 0.0%
6,210 4.93 0.1%
2,416 0.75 0.0%
YTD
6.7%
1.5%
9.2%
15.4%
7.9%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 05/15/2017
21,400 or 20,450 by 06/01/2017
9,500 or 8,700 by 06/01/2017
730 or 700 by 06/15/2017
6,350 or 6,000 by 06/01/2017
2,450 or 2,375 by 06/15/2017

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

August 2016 Headlines


Archives


Wednesday 8/31/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows bearish divergence between the index and the indicator.

I show that with the two red lines. The indicator says the index will fall, but the index is stubborn. It's coasting horizontally.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 26%.
The fewest was 25% on 08/23/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 530 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 14% on 08/23/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The lines are moving higher and the stats bear that out. Sort of. The red line has shown improvement over the prior week, but the blue line dropped and then recovered to tie the week ago value.

I am inclined to believe that the prior chart shows weakness going into September. I expect a drop. I've been taking modest profit on some of my positions, raising cash for the decline.

Then I'll buy the dip.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 8/30/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.6% or 107.59 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 827 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 460 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 367 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 122/204 or 59.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/60 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I show three colored lines on the chart. The middle one is red and I started it from the right, extending it to the left. It shows current overhead resistance, where the index topped out today (Monday).

The top blue line is another one of resistance drawn along the top of price movement and extended to the right. It's where the index could stall.

The green line is the one I favor. It could mark the low of a right shoulder of a head (H) and shoulders bottom (L, R) chart pattern. I can imagine the index dropping to form a right shoulder.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  18,052.42    
 Weekly S2  18,193.72  141.29   
 Monthly S1  18,277.71  83.99   
 Weekly S1  18,348.35  70.65   
 Daily S2  18,378.83  30.48   
 Low  18,419.92  41.09   
 Open  18,421.29  1.37   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  18,440.91  19.62   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,459.33  18.42   
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,471.51  12.18   
 Monthly Pivot  18,473.07  1.57   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  18,482.00  8.93   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,483.68  1.68   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  18,489.98  6.30   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  18,502.99  13.01   
 High  18,523.09  20.10   
 Daily R1  18,544.08  20.99   
 Daily R2  18,585.17  41.09   
 Weekly R1  18,644.61  59.44   
 Monthly R1  18,698.36  53.74   
 Weekly R2  18,786.24  87.88   
 Monthly R2  18,893.72  107.49   

Monday 8/29/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

I shows a picture of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The chart shows another broadening top. It's the same as I have shown in the last two Monday postings in other indices.

I extended the top line knowing that September -- which is the worst performing month of the year -- is coming.

I expect the indices to show weakness and maybe it'll drop far enough to touch the trendline and rebound.

Perhaps we'll see it happen this week.

 

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 23.15 points.
Tuesday: Up 17.88 points.
Wednesday: Down 65.82 points.
Thursday: Down 33.07 points.
Friday: Down 53.01 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 157.17 points or 0.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 19.46 points or 0.4%.
The S&P 500 index was down 14.83 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.5% down from the high of 18,668.44 on 08/15/2016.
     19.1% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     1.1% down from the high of 5,275.74 on 08/23/2016.
     24.0% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     1.1% down from the high of 2,193.81 on 08/15/2016.
     19.8% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

Top

Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Personal income & consumption8:30 MC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 MC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 WBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Productivity & costs8:30 ThD+Cost of producing a unit of output.
Construction spending10:00 ThDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Auto & truck sales2:00 ThC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Trade balance8:30 FC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
Factory orders10:00 FD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,198  18,296  18,434  18,533  18,671 
Weekly  18,158  18,277  18,454  18,573  18,750 
Monthly  18,017  18,206  18,437  18,627  18,858 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,145  2,157  2,172  2,185  2,200 
Weekly  2,141  2,155  2,174  2,188  2,207 
Monthly  2,124  2,146  2,170  2,193  2,216 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,160  5,189  5,221  5,251  5,283 
Weekly  5,145  5,182  5,229  5,266  5,313 
Monthly  4,975  5,097  5,186  5,308  5,398 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 16.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 19.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 15.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 20.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.6%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 38.0%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
27Triangle, symmetrical
11Pipe bottom
9Triangle, descending
8Broadening top
7Triangle, ascending
7Head-and-shoulders top
7Dead-cat bounce
5Rising wedge
5Flag
4Double Top, Eve and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Natural Gas (Diversified)1. Natural Gas (Diversified)
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Semiconductor
3. Semiconductor3. Petroleum (Producing)
4. Furn/Home Furnishings4. Cement and Aggregates
5. Cement and Aggregates5. Furn/Home Furnishings
50. Electric Utility (Central)50. Shoe
51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing51. Household Products
52. Electric Utility (East)52. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
53. Shoe53. Electric Utility (East)
54. Retail Store54. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
55. Retail (Special Lines)55. Apparel
56. Apparel56. Retail (Special Lines)
57. Short ETFs57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 8/26/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 30 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 633 stocks searched, or 4.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 19 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AONTriangle, symmetrical      07/14/201608/25/2016Insurance (Diversified)
AGOTriangle, symmetrical      08/09/201608/25/2016Insurance (Life)
CDIDiamond top      08/16/201608/24/2016Human Resources
CSCOBroadening top      07/26/201608/25/2016Computers and Peripherals
CMTLTriangle, descending      07/22/201608/25/2016Telecom. Equipment
FBTriangle, symmetrical      08/02/201608/25/2016E-Commerce
FISTriangle, symmetrical      07/27/201608/25/2016Computer Software and Svcs
FORMTriangle, symmetrical      08/03/201608/19/2016Semiconductor
GISTriangle, symmetrical      07/19/201608/24/2016Food Processing
GNWFlag, high and tight      07/06/201608/25/2016Insurance (Life)
GFFTriangle, symmetrical      08/03/201608/22/2016Building Materials
HAYNTriangle, symmetrical      08/12/201608/25/2016Building Materials
HLPipe top      08/08/201608/15/2016Metals and Mining (Div.)
DHIBroadening bottom      08/05/201608/23/2016Homebuilding
LNCTriangle, ascending      08/09/201608/24/2016Insurance (Life)
MCHXTriangle, descending      08/11/201608/25/2016Advertising
MRKTriangle, symmetrical      08/05/201608/22/2016Drug
MOSTriangle, symmetrical      07/27/201608/22/2016Chemical (Diversified)
MLIHead-and-shoulders bottom      07/20/201608/22/2016Metal Fabricating
NWYFlag, high and tight      06/27/201608/19/2016Apparel
PCGBroadening top, right-angled and descending      07/06/201608/22/2016Electric Utility (West)
RTNChannel      04/05/201608/25/2016Aerospace/Defense
SETriangle, symmetrical      08/04/201608/23/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
RIGTriangle, descending      08/02/201608/25/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
USGBroadening bottom      08/01/201608/23/2016Building Materials
PAYTriangle, ascending      06/22/201608/25/2016Telecom. Equipment
WMTBroadening top      07/28/201608/24/2016Retail Store
RTHBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      07/12/201608/25/2016Retail Store
IBBDouble Top, Eve and Adam      08/04/201608/24/2016Biotechnology
XLBTriangle, ascending      07/27/201608/22/2016Building Materials

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/18/2016 and 08/25/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Aon Corp (AON)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 289 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $110.11
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $107.41 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.41%
Volume: 606,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,080,678 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/14/2016 to 08/25/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 363 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $27.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.42 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.41%
Volume: 431,400 shares. 3 month avg: 910,222 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/09/2016 to 08/25/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

CDI Corp (CDI)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 251 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $5.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.11 or 8.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.72%
Volume: 51,500 shares. 3 month avg: 101,226 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 08/16/2016 to 08/24/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 253 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $31.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.08 or 2.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.23%
Volume: 22,917,100 shares. 3 month avg: 23,432,752 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/26/2016 to 08/25/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Comtech Telecommunications Corp (CMTL)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 617 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $12.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.83 or 8.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -36.39%
Volume: 237,200 shares. 3 month avg: 475,623 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 07/22/2016 to 08/25/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Facebook (FB)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 291 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $123.89
1 Month avg volatility: $1.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $119.87 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.37%
Volume: 10,723,200 shares. 3 month avg: 20,216,028 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/02/2016 to 08/25/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Fidelity National Information Svcs (FIS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 100 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $79.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $77.75 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.37%
Volume: 1,031,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,924,194 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/27/2016 to 08/25/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

FormFactor Inc. (FORM)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 67 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $10.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.55 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.78%
Volume: 311,000 shares. 3 month avg: 481,460 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/03/2016 to 08/19/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

General Mills Inc (GIS)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 218 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $71.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $69.25 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.81%
Volume: 3,197,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,275,778 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/19/2016 to 08/24/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 9 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $4.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.92 or 11.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.96%
Volume: 8,981,200 shares. 3 month avg: 7,649,578 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 07/06/2016 to 08/25/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 258 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $17.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.32 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.43%
Volume: 109,200 shares. 3 month avg: 157,578 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/03/2016 to 08/22/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Haynes International Inc. (HAYN)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 122 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $39.41
1 Month avg volatility: $1.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.41 or 10.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.41%
Volume: 55,600 shares. 3 month avg: 87,443 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/12/2016 to 08/25/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Hecla Mining Co. (HL)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 6 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $5.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.46 or 12.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 204.76%
Volume: 16,003,600 shares. 3 month avg: 10,128,583 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/08/2016 to 08/15/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Horton, D.R. Inc. (DHI)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 190 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $32.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.37 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.87%
Volume: 1,851,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,592,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/05/2016 to 08/23/2016
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Lincoln National Corp (LNC)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 119 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $46.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.98 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.62%
Volume: 1,384,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,365,785 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/09/2016 to 08/24/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Marchex, Inc (MCHX)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 616 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $2.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.12 or 10.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -27.76%
Volume: 33,300 shares. 3 month avg: 189,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/11/2016 to 08/25/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Merck and Co., Inc. (MRK)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 188 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $62.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.56 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.99%
Volume: 7,947,700 shares. 3 month avg: 9,958,548 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/05/2016 to 08/22/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Mosaic Co (MOS)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 326 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $28.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.51 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.30%
Volume: 2,979,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,534,089 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/27/2016 to 08/22/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Mueller Industries Inc. (MLI)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 107 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $34.82
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.00 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 28.49%
Volume: 167,500 shares. 3 month avg: 151,531 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 07/20/2016 to 08/22/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

New York and Company Inc (NWY)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 543 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $2.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.80 or 13.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.61%
Volume: 92,900 shares. 3 month avg: 200,389 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/27/2016 to 08/19/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/20/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/18/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

PG and E (PCG)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 386 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $63.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.69 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.27%
Volume: 1,841,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,817,102 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 07/06/2016 to 08/22/2016
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Top

Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 317 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $141.78
1 Month avg volatility: $1.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $137.02 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.85%
Volume: 1,096,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,819,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/05/2016 to 08/25/2016

Top

Spectra Energy Corp (SE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 175 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $35.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.61 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 49.08%
Volume: 3,079,300 shares. 3 month avg: 4,131,452 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/04/2016 to 08/23/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 197 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $10.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.39 or 13.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -18.66%
Volume: 10,436,800 shares. 3 month avg: 15,364,363 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/02/2016 to 08/25/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

USG Corp (USG)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 75 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $28.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.73 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.73%
Volume: 697,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,425,711 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/01/2016 to 08/23/2016
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

VeriFone Systems, Inc (PAY)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 600 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $19.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.35 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -31.26%
Volume: 1,196,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,180,138 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/22/2016 to 08/25/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/08/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/07/2016 and a 38% chance by 12/07/2016.
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 463 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $71.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $74.54 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.18%
Volume: 10,513,900 shares. 3 month avg: 8,382,542 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/28/2016 to 08/24/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Market Vectors Retail (RTH)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 419 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $79.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $81.25 or 2.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.33%
Volume: 14,600 shares. 3 month avg: 26,257 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 07/12/2016 to 08/25/2016
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top

Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (IBB)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 409 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $282.87
1 Month avg volatility: $5.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $299.87 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.39%
Volume: 3,078,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,624,038 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 08/04/2016 to 08/24/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

SPDR Materials Select Sector (XLB)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 240 out of 625
8/25/16 close: $49.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.82 or 2.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.87%
Volume: 3,388,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,689,358 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/27/2016 to 08/22/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top


Thursday 8/25/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.8% or -42.39 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 241 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 118 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 123 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 51.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 113/192 or 58.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 37/75 or 49.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

As I looked at this picture, I drew a red trendline following the bottom of price movement over the last week. It follows a straight trend.

The measure rule for trendlines tells that the drop is over.

The vertical distance from B to A should approximately equal the drop from C to D.

The downward move nearly made it to the target at D. So I would expect a rebound tomorrow (Thursday). You already see part of that rebound in the last ten minutes or so.

I can see the index climbing to 5,230 before running into trouble and perhaps retracing to close lower and fulfill the prediction at the top of this page for a lower close.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,916.35    
 Monthly S1  5,067.02  150.67   
 Weekly S2  5,154.63  87.61   
 Monthly Pivot  5,169.19  14.56   
 Daily S2  5,171.42  2.23   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly S1  5,186.16  14.74   
 Daily S1  5,194.56  8.40   
 Low  5,205.64  11.08   
 Close  5,217.69  12.05   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,227.55  9.86   
 Weekly Pivot  5,228.76  1.21   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  5,228.77  0.01   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,234.31  5.54   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,241.08  6.77   
 Daily R1  5,251.91  10.82   
 Open  5,254.42  2.51   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  5,260.29  5.87   
 High  5,262.99  2.70   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  5,286.12  23.13   
 Weekly R2  5,302.89  16.77   
 Monthly R1  5,319.86  16.97   
 Monthly R2  5,422.03  102.17   

Wednesday 8/24/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

A week ago, we saw a red bar as the most recent signal. That signal has disappeared.

It's common for the indicator to show signals that later disappear. That can happen for up to a week, so that's why you can't trade using this indicator. However, for background information, it's a great indicator.

The latest green bar and a rising indicator line suggests the bullish trend will continue.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 26% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 27%.
The fewest was 26% on 08/22/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 530 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 14% on 08/22/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The blue line seems to be moving up in the chart but the above numbers say it's flat with a week ago. I'm scratching my head over this.

The red line looks flat but the numbers say it has improved. That is, fewer stocks in my database are down by at least 20%.

The red line is the highest it's been in a year.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 8/23/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.1% or -23.15 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1273 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 659 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 614 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 121/203 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/60 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

This is an interesting picture. First, there's a symmetrical triangle outlined in red. It's a nicely formed pattern.

The breakout direction can be either up, down, or even sideways, but my new book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy (pictured on the left) says the breakout will be upward 61% of the time.

Let's consider an upward breakout first.

It could stall at the blue line. I show overhead resistance by connecting peaks. It follows a downward trend as the blue line shows. It's been my experience that you want to avoid buying a position when this type of resistance is in the way.

For downward breakouts, the chart pattern is resting on the green line, a line of support.

I guess we'll have to see what the actual breakout direction will be. We'll know that soon after the open.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  18,061.23    
 Monthly S1  18,295.33  234.09   
 Weekly S2  18,355.75  60.43   
 Daily S2  18,418.34  62.59   
 Weekly S1  18,442.59  24.25   
 Low  18,466.86  24.27   
 Daily S1  18,473.88  7.02   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  18,481.88  8.00   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,506.61  24.73   
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,518.89  12.28   
 Daily Pivot  18,522.40  3.51   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  18,529.42  7.02   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,531.17  1.75   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  18,535.86  4.69   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  18,555.51  19.65   
 High  18,570.92  15.41   
 Daily R1  18,577.94  7.02   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  18,626.46  48.52   
 Weekly R1  18,642.35  15.88   
 Monthly R1  18,715.98  73.63   
 Weekly R2  18,755.27  39.30   
 Monthly R2  18,902.53  147.26   

Monday 8/22/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

Outlined here in red is a broadening top chart pattern.

It's similar to the one I showed last week in the Dow industrials.

This time, we see a nice strong extension. By that, I mean price is moving up in a strong push higher.

It's flattened out somewhat in the last few days, so maybe it's ready to turn down or just pause. Take your pick.

 

 

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 59.58 points.
Tuesday: Down 84.03 points.
Wednesday: Up 21.92 points.
Thursday: Up 23.76 points.
Friday: Down 45.13 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 23.9 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 5.49 points or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 0.18 points or 0.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.6% down from the high of 18,668.44 on 08/15/2016.
     20.1% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     0.6% down from the high of 5,271.36 on 08/15/2016.
     24.4% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     0.5% down from the high of 2,193.81 on 08/15/2016.
     20.6% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

Top

Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
New home sales10:00 TC+Shows sales of single-family homes.
Existing home sales10:00 WCCounts sales of used homes.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Durable goods orders8:30 ThBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.
Gross domestic product8:30 FBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Michigan sentiment10:00 FB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 08/19/2016, the CPI had:

14 bearish patterns,
35 bullish patterns,
307 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 71.4%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,449  18,501  18,543  18,595  18,637 
Weekly  18,363  18,458  18,563  18,658  18,763 
Monthly  18,069  18,311  18,490  18,731  18,910 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,171  2,178  2,181  2,188  2,191 
Weekly  2,157  2,170  2,182  2,196  2,207 
Monthly  2,129  2,156  2,175  2,203  2,221 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,206  5,222  5,234  5,250  5,262 
Weekly  5,162  5,200  5,236  5,274  5,310 
Monthly  4,923  5,081  5,176  5,334  5,429 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.3%   The trend may continue. 
 7 months up 2.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.2%   The trend may continue. 
 6 months up 14.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 8 weeks up 1.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months up 38.0%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
19Triangle, symmetrical
11Flag
10Double Top, Adam and Adam
9Dead-cat bounce
9Triangle, descending
9Pipe bottom
8Head-and-shoulders top
8Double Top, Eve and Eve
7Broadening top
5Triangle, ascending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Natural Gas (Diversified)1. Semiconductor
2. Semiconductor2. Cement and Aggregates
3. Petroleum (Producing)3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Cement and Aggregates4. Petroleum (Producing)
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. Building Materials
50. Shoe50. Household Products
51. Household Products51. Electric Utility (Central)
52. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)52. Retail (Special Lines)
53. Electric Utility (East)53. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
54. Trucking/Transp. Leasing54. Electric Utility (East)
55. Apparel55. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
56. Retail (Special Lines)56. Apparel
57. Short ETFs57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 8/19/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 633 stocks searched, or 3.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ALBHead-and-shoulders top      06/17/201608/15/2016Chemical (Diversified)
AIGFlag      08/09/201608/18/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ASNAPipe bottom      08/01/201608/08/2016Apparel
BSETTriangle, descending      07/20/201608/18/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
CBKRectangle bottom      07/20/201608/18/2016Retail (Special Lines)
CMTLTriangle, symmetrical      07/22/201608/18/2016Telecom. Equipment
FMCTriangle, symmetrical      06/20/201608/16/2016Chemical (Basic)
FDPPennant      08/08/201608/18/2016Food Processing
GSOLTriangle, descending      06/28/201608/17/2016Advertising
GGGTriangle, descending      07/26/201608/17/2016Machinery
HETriangle, symmetrical      07/18/201608/12/2016Electric Utility (West)
INTCTriangle, ascending      07/27/201608/18/2016Semiconductor
IPGTriangle, symmetrical      06/23/201608/18/2016Advertising
LAWSFlag      08/08/201608/18/2016Metal Fabricating
LOWTriple top      07/12/201608/15/2016Retail Building Supply
MENTTriangle, symmetrical      06/23/201608/17/2016Computer Software and Svcs
NBLPipe bottom      08/01/201608/08/2016Petroleum (Producing)
PGRising wedge      07/14/201608/18/2016Household Products
RTNChannel      04/05/201608/18/2016Aerospace/Defense
TDCPennant      08/09/201608/18/2016Computer Software and Svcs
VMIRectangle bottom      07/22/201608/18/2016Metal Fabricating
IYMRectangle top      07/14/201608/18/2016Metals and Mining (Div.)
XLVScallop, ascending and inverted      06/27/201608/17/2016Drug
SMNRectangle bottom      07/14/201608/18/2016Short ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/11/2016 and 08/18/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Albemarle Corp. (ALB)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 43 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $81.28
1 Month avg volatility: $1.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $84.40 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 45.12%
Volume: 1,070,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,751,212 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 06/17/2016 to 08/15/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Top

American International Group (AIG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 372 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $58.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.69 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.82%
Volume: 3,757,200 shares. 3 month avg: 6,338,168 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 08/09/2016 to 08/18/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 297 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $8.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.74 or 11.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.96%
Volume: 1,486,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,759,435 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/01/2016 to 08/08/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Bassett Furniture Industries Inc (BSET)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 597 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $25.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.82 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.36%
Volume: 37,800 shares. 3 month avg: 55,334 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 07/20/2016 to 08/18/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Christopher and Banks Corp (CBK)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 198 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $1.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.22 or 16.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.76%
Volume: 239,600 shares. 3 month avg: 315,895 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 07/20/2016 to 08/18/2016
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Top

Comtech Telecommunications Corp (CMTL)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 616 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $13.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.20 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -35.14%
Volume: 167,200 shares. 3 month avg: 463,366 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/22/2016 to 08/18/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

FMC Corp. (FMC)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 172 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $47.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.05 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.52%
Volume: 540,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,329,378 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/20/2016 to 08/16/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 57 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $59.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.41 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 53.01%
Volume: 82,400 shares. 3 month avg: 269,878 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 08/08/2016 to 08/18/2016
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Top

Global Sources Ltd (GSOL)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 253 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $8.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.01 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.64%
Volume: 5,500 shares. 3 month avg: 31,523 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/28/2016 to 08/17/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Graco Incorporated (GGG)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 559 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $73.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $76.03 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.40%
Volume: 150,000 shares. 3 month avg: 343,285 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 07/26/2016 to 08/17/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 491 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $30.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.25 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.49%
Volume: 628,700 shares. 3 month avg: 653,185 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/18/2016 to 08/12/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Intel Corporation (INTC)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 257 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $34.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.90 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.51%
Volume: 16,083,400 shares. 3 month avg: 22,558,128 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/27/2016 to 08/18/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 407 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $23.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.20 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.90%
Volume: 3,067,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,430,906 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/23/2016 to 08/18/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 590 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $17.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.02 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -26.55%
Volume: 5,900 shares. 3 month avg: 17,778 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 08/08/2016 to 08/18/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Lowes Companies, Inc (LOW)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 362 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $76.43
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.24 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.51%
Volume: 7,806,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,156,908 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 07/12/2016 to 08/15/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Top

Mentor Graphics Corp (MENT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 202 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $22.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.04 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.30%
Volume: 2,186,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,117,937 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/23/2016 to 08/17/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Noble Energy Inc. (NBL)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 271 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $35.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.66 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.17%
Volume: 9,232,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,743,425 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/01/2016 to 08/08/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Procter and Gamble Co (PG)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 483 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $87.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $89.04 or 1.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.11%
Volume: 7,082,800 shares. 3 month avg: 7,299,009 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 07/14/2016 to 08/18/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 283 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $142.59
1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $138.28 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.50%
Volume: 1,296,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,865,249 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/05/2016 to 08/18/2016

Top

Teradata Corp (TDC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 150 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $31.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.15 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.38%
Volume: 1,094,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,002,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 08/09/2016 to 08/18/2016
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Top

Valmont Industries Inc. (VMI)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 263 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $130.93
1 Month avg volatility: $2.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $135.08 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.50%
Volume: 65,200 shares. 3 month avg: 144,343 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 07/22/2016 to 08/18/2016
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Top

DJ US Basic Materials sector index fnd (IYM)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 235 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $80.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.44 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.12%
Volume: 102,600 shares. 3 month avg: 140,097 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 07/14/2016 to 08/18/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

SPDR Health Care Select Sector (XLV)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 370 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $74.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $73.14 or 1.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.32%
Volume: 4,180,100 shares. 3 month avg: 8,899,008 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 06/27/2016 to 08/17/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

Top

UltraShort 2x Basic Materials ProShares (SMN)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 618 out of 625
8/18/16 close: $23.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.73 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -30.94%
Volume: 700 shares. 3 month avg: 12,298 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 07/14/2016 to 08/18/2016
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Top


Thursday 8/18/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.0% or 1.55 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 612 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 342 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 270 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 112/191 or 58.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 37/75 or 49.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Similar to last week's blog post, a head-and-shoulders top appears as the left shoulder (LS), Head, and right shoulder (RS).

I drew a blue line along the right bottom of the head-and-shoulders pattern. The index is now pulling back to the breakout price at A. Thus, I expect the index to close lower tomorrow (Thursday). That's what happens frequently when a pullback completes.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,785.55    
 Monthly S1  5,007.11  221.55   
 Monthly Pivot  5,122.82  115.72   
 Weekly S2  5,175.59  52.77   
 Daily S2  5,185.80  10.21   
 Low  5,197.23  11.43   
 Weekly S1  5,202.13  4.90   
 Daily S1  5,207.23  5.10   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,209.78  2.55   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,213.66  3.88   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,217.54  3.88   
 Daily Pivot  5,218.66  1.12   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  5,220.33  1.67   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  5,228.44  8.11   
 Close  5,228.66  0.22   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 High  5,230.09  1.43   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  5,240.09  10.00   
 Weekly R1  5,246.87  6.78   
 Daily R2  5,251.52  4.65   
 Weekly R2  5,265.07  13.55   
 Monthly R1  5,344.38  79.30   
 Monthly R2  5,460.09  115.72   

Wednesday 8/17/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator flagged a bearish signal today. It suggests the index will drop. Certainly the Dow utility is having trouble staying up.

There's clearly bearish divergence between the indicator (a high peak followed by a lower one) when the index is climbing (progressively higher peaks over the same period. If you want to see the divergence, flip to this chart (the third one down) but be quick. It gets replaced each Friday.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 27% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 29%.
The fewest was 27% on 08/15/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 530 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 14% on 08/15/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The red line continues to climb, meaning fewer stocks in my database were down at least 20% from their 1-year highs.

Even the blue line improved this week with the average decline (14%) of the stocks I follow becoming less severe (down from 15%).

It's an improvement, so bulls should be thankful.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 8/16/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.3% or 59.58 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1052 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 580 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 472 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 121/202 or 59.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/60 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

This chart is a study in cycles, repeating patterns that appear on the charts.

I show three events where minutes after the open, the index moves up smartly. I show those events, circled in red.

Notice how the index retraces those upward moves. The retrace lasts 2 days for the left-most event to 1.5 days for the middle event. So far, the index has retraced for a day.

That sequence, 2, 1.5, 1, suggests another upward move will occur at the open tomorrow.

My experience with cycles is that as soon as you expect it to happen, it stops working. So I don't expect a big move up at the open and a retrace that follows. Perhaps the index will drop instead.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,748.08    
 Monthly S1  18,192.07  443.98   
 Weekly S2  18,411.50  219.43   
 Monthly Pivot  18,415.20  3.71   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  18,523.77  108.57   
 Daily S2  18,551.18  27.40   
 Weekly Pivot  18,581.06  29.88   
 Low  18,588.59  7.53   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  18,588.59  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  18,593.61  5.02   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,619.09  25.48   
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,628.52  9.42   
 Daily Pivot  18,631.03  2.51   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  18,636.05  5.02   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,637.94  1.89   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  18,668.44  30.50   
 Daily R1  18,673.46  5.02   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  18,693.33  19.87   
 Daily R2  18,710.88  17.54   
 Weekly R2  18,750.62  39.74   
 Monthly R1  18,859.19  108.57   
 Monthly R2  19,082.32  223.14   

Monday 8/15/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the index on the daily scale.

A broadening top appears, outlined here in red.

Notice how the index has returned to the price of the top of the broadening top at A. That pattern is called a throwback.

A throwback occurs after a breakout when a stock returns to the breakout price within 30 days. Usually the return is quick, happening within a week.

After a throwback completes, look for the index to rise. And that's what we see happening.

Right now, though, the index is at overhead resistance setup by the prior top (the peak just before A). So we could see the index drop back down...or zip on up.

Take your choice.

The chart pattern indicator suggests the index will drop (bearish divergence).

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 14.24 points.
Tuesday: Up 3.76 points.
Wednesday: Down 37.39 points.
Thursday: Up 117.86 points.
Friday: Down 37.05 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 32.94 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 11.77 points or 0.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 1.18 points or 0.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.3% down from the high of 18,638.34 on 08/11/2016.
     20.2% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     0.1% down from the high of 5,238.54 on 08/09/2016.
     24.3% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 2,188.45 on 08/11/2016.
     20.7% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

Top

Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Building permits8:30 TB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Consumer price index8:30 TB+Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services.
Housing starts8:30 TB-Number of homes beginning construction.
Capacity utilization9:15 TB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.
Industrial production9:15 TB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Minutes2:00 W?Minutes of the prior Federal Reserve meeting.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Leading indicators10:00 ThD-Summary of already known reports.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
VIX expiresWednesday
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 08/12/2016, the CPI had:

23 bearish patterns,
25 bullish patterns,
486 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 52.1%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,503  18,540  18,573  18,610  18,643 
Weekly  18,392  18,484  18,561  18,654  18,731 
Monthly  17,728  18,152  18,395  18,819  19,062 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,176  2,180  2,183  2,187  2,190 
Weekly  2,165  2,175  2,182  2,191  2,198 
Monthly  2,078  2,131  2,160  2,213  2,241 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,209  5,221  5,227  5,239  5,245 
Weekly  5,177  5,205  5,222  5,250  5,266 
Monthly  4,787  5,010  5,124  5,347  5,462 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 30.0%   The trend may continue. 
 7 months up 2.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 30.3%   The trend may continue. 
 6 months up 14.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 7 weeks up 3.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months up 38.0%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
17Triangle, symmetrical
12Broadening top
10Double Top, Adam and Adam
9Flag
9Dead-cat bounce
8Double Top, Eve and Eve
8Triangle, descending
6Head-and-shoulders top
5Rising wedge
4Channel

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Cement and Aggregates2. Semiconductor
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Petroleum (Producing)4. Building Materials
5. Building Materials5. Natural Gas (Diversified)
50. Household Products50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
51. Electric Utility (Central)51. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
52. Retail (Special Lines)52. Retail Store
53. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)53. Electric Utility (East)
54. Electric Utility (East)54. Shoe
55. Trucking/Transp. Leasing55. Retail (Special Lines)
56. Apparel56. Apparel
57. Short ETFs57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 8/12/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 21 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 634 stocks searched, or 3.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 8 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABTPennant      08/02/201608/11/2016Medical Supplies
ATSGBroadening top      07/18/201608/09/2016Air Transport
AEETriangle, descending      06/17/201608/11/2016Electric Utility (Central)
AMWDTriangle, symmetrical      07/15/201608/11/2016Building Materials
AMGNFlag      08/02/201608/11/2016Biotechnology
CYHead-and-shoulders top      07/21/201608/08/2016Semiconductor
BOOMPipe bottom      07/25/201608/01/2016Metal Fabricating
HSCFlag, high and tight      06/27/201608/11/2016Diversified Co.
HUBGRising wedge      07/14/201608/11/2016Trucking/Transp. Leasing
KELYADouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/21/201608/08/2016Human Resources
KLACDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/28/201608/05/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LXUTriangle, symmetrical      06/08/201608/11/2016Building Materials
MYGNDead-cat bounce      08/10/201608/10/2016Biotechnology
PLXSTriangle, symmetrical      07/21/201608/09/2016Electronics
PGRFlag      08/08/201608/11/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
RHTChannel      06/27/201608/11/2016Computer Software and Svcs
SHLMDead-cat bounce      08/11/201608/11/2016Chemical (Specialty)
SCCOTriangle, ascending      06/30/201608/11/2016Metals and Mining (Div.)
TSODiamond top      07/19/201608/10/2016Petroleum (Integrated)
VRSNTriangle, symmetrical      07/29/201608/11/2016Internet
WERNHead-and-shoulders complex top      07/14/201608/08/2016Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SPYBroadening top      07/22/201608/08/2016Long ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/04/2016 and 08/11/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 300 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $45.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.63 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.31%
Volume: 5,756,200 shares. 3 month avg: 10,349,602 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 08/02/2016 to 08/11/2016
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Top

Air Transport Services Group (ATSG)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 147 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $14.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.35 or 5.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 44.35%
Volume: 238,200 shares. 3 month avg: 301,251 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/18/2016 to 08/09/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Ameren (AEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 461 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $51.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $52.47 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.02%
Volume: 875,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,804,805 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/17/2016 to 08/11/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

American Woodmark Corp (AMWD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 224 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $74.93
1 Month avg volatility: $1.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.28 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.31%
Volume: 126,300 shares. 3 month avg: 213,657 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/15/2016 to 08/11/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 322 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $172.43
1 Month avg volatility: $2.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $166.32 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.22%
Volume: 2,142,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,937,914 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 08/02/2016 to 08/11/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Cypress Semiconductor (CY)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 43 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $10.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.68 or 7.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.31%
Volume: 17,207,400 shares. 3 month avg: 8,467,232 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 07/21/2016 to 08/08/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Top

Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 17 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $11.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.49 or 10.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 67.24%
Volume: 65,600 shares. 3 month avg: 110,322 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/25/2016 to 08/01/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 24 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $10.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.77 or 9.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 36.93%
Volume: 764,600 shares. 3 month avg: 897,865 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/27/2016 to 08/11/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/26/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/26/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Hub Group Inc. (HUBG)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 422 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $41.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.20 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 24.92%
Volume: 118,900 shares. 3 month avg: 247,118 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 07/14/2016 to 08/11/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

Kelly Services A (KELYA)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 349 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $19.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.67 or 7.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.82%
Volume: 190,900 shares. 3 month avg: 137,645 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 07/21/2016 to 08/08/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 520 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $67.51
1 Month avg volatility: $1.25. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $72.67 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.65%
Volume: 3,423,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,114,515 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/28/2016 to 08/05/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Top

LSB Industries Inc (LXU)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 9 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $11.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.23 or 17.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 53.52%
Volume: 640,900 shares. 3 month avg: 704,971 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/08/2016 to 08/11/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/05/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/03/2016.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Myriad Genetics Inc (MYGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 622 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $20.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.91 or 10.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -51.81%
Volume: 5,770,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,338,385 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/10/2016 to 08/10/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Plexus Corp (PLXS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 165 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $45.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.92 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.50%
Volume: 103,400 shares. 3 month avg: 177,092 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/21/2016 to 08/09/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Progressive Corp (PGR)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 464 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $34.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.25 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.20%
Volume: 1,689,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,007,211 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 08/08/2016 to 08/11/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Red Hat, Inc (RHT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 359 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $74.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.71 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.13%
Volume: 1,880,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,452,140 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 06/27/2016 to 08/11/2016

Top

Schulman, A. (SHLM)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 584 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $21.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.90 or 9.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -28.56%
Volume: 1,955,900 shares. 3 month avg: 257,934 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/11/2016 to 08/11/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Southern Copper (SCCO)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 535 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $26.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.79 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.38%
Volume: 1,158,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,457,089 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/30/2016 to 08/11/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Tesoro Corporation (TSO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 541 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $75.99
1 Month avg volatility: $2.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $81.72 or 7.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -27.88%
Volume: 2,660,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,042,238 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/19/2016 to 08/10/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Verisign (VRSN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 395 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $84.67
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.82 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.08%
Volume: 621,200 shares. 3 month avg: 728,689 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/29/2016 to 08/11/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Werner Enterprises, Inc (WERN)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 596 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $23.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25.76 or 9.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.81%
Volume: 797,700 shares. 3 month avg: 900,231 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex top reversal pattern from 07/14/2016 to 08/08/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 67% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 53% of the time.

Top

SPDR S and P 500 (SPY)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 342 out of 626
8/11/16 close: $218.65
1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $221.51 or 1.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.25%
Volume: 72,443,200 shares. 3 month avg: 94,823,234 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/22/2016 to 08/08/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top


Thursday 8/11/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.4% or -20.9 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 409 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 207 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 202 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 111/190 or 58.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 37/75 or 49.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The horizontal red line shows a support area starting at A and extending to the right of B. Notice at B, though, that the index pierced the line and yet it recovered. To me, that suggests strength.

If you believe in price mirrors, the pattern we see on the chart could unfold as a head-and-shoulders top. I highlight the left shoulder (LS), head, and a potential right shoulder (RS?).

If the index unfolds as I expect, look for the index to move higher on Thursday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,631.39    
 Monthly S1  4,917.98  286.60   
 Weekly S2  5,063.11  145.12   
 Monthly Pivot  5,072.61  9.50   
 Weekly S1  5,133.84  61.24   
 Daily S2  5,174.62  40.78   
 Weekly Pivot  5,180.54  5.92   
 Daily S1  5,189.60  9.06   
 Low  5,193.80  4.20   
 Close  5,204.58  10.78   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,206.85  2.27   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  5,208.78  1.93   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,210.88  2.10   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,214.91  4.03   
 Daily R1  5,223.76  8.85   
 Open  5,227.95  4.19   
 High  5,227.96  0.01   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  5,242.94  14.98   
 Weekly R1  5,251.27  8.33   
 Weekly R2  5,297.97  46.69   
 Monthly R1  5,359.20  61.24   
 Monthly R2  5,513.83  154.62   

Wednesday 8/10/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

After a brief downturn signaled by the last red line on the right, a bullish signal appeared with the green bar.

It suggests the index will gather strength for a move up, maybe once earnings have been put behind us (if they haven't been already).

My bullish optimism is tempered by the reluctance of the indices to move higher. An index not moving higher is one that's ripe to fall. It's a concern... Let's see what the next chart says.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 29% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 31%.
The fewest was 28% on 08/05/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 531 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 15% on 07/26/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The red line keeps trouping upward even as the blue line struggles to show any movement at all.

If you look at both lines from the February low, they have recovered nicely. The blue line moving horizontally makes me nervous though. I guess we'll have to see if the indices suffer a break and tumble. I have a suspicion they just might. Often I'm 3 days early with my predictions, so look for a tumble soon.

$ $ $

I released version 5.2 of Patternz. This version finds 105 candlestick patterns.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 8/9/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.1% or -14.24 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1272 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 658 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 614 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 120/201 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/60 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

There's not much I can say about the pattern shown here. Some people think that every price bar can form a pattern but that's not true.

In this case, I'm hard pressed to see anything noteworthy. However, the pattern at A resembles a roof, hence it's name, "roof."

It's a rare chart pattern that is frequently mistaken for a head-and-shoulders top. The roof has more valleys touching the horizontal line and fewer or no distinctive peaks leading to the top of the chart pattern. This one could use more touches on the bottom.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,379.69    
 Monthly S1  17,954.49  574.80   
 Weekly S2  18,144.46  189.97   
 Monthly Pivot  18,288.25  143.79   
 Weekly S1  18,336.88  48.63   
 Weekly Pivot  18,440.20  103.33   
 Daily S2  18,466.26  26.06   
 Daily S1  18,497.78  31.51   
 Low  18,502.03  4.25   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,527.73  25.70   
 Close  18,529.29  1.56   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  18,533.54  4.25   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,535.67  2.13   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  18,540.65  4.98   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,543.61  2.96   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  18,565.06  21.45   
 High  18,569.31  4.25   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  18,600.82  31.51   
 Weekly R1  18,632.62  31.79   
 Weekly R2  18,735.94  103.33   
 Monthly R1  18,863.05  127.11   
 Monthly R2  19,196.81  333.76   

Monday 8/8/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

The index started its recent rise at A, peaking at B, and then retracing to C, forming a flag pattern.

The flag (B to C move) is a bit long and it has a downward breakout, but now the index is moving up again.

This suggests to me that the retrace down from B is over and we can look forward to an resumption of the upward move.

 

 

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 27.73 points.
Tuesday: Down 90.74 points.
Wednesday: Up 41.23 points.
Thursday: Down 2.95 points.
Friday: Up 191.48 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 111.29 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 58.99 points or 1.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 9.27 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.4% down from the high of 18,622.01 on 07/20/2016.
     20.0% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     0.1% down from the high of 5,227.23 on 08/05/2016.
     24.0% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     0.0% down from the high of 2,182.87 on 08/05/2016.
     20.6% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

Top

Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Productivity & costs8:30 TD+Cost of producing a unit of output.
Wholesale inventories10:00 TD-Wholesale sales and inventory statistics.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Treasury budget2:00 WDTracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing).
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
International trade8:30 ThC+Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others.
Producer price index8:30 FB-Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation.
Retail sales8:30 FA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
Business inventories10:00 FC-Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,356  18,450  18,497  18,590  18,637 
Weekly  18,149  18,346  18,445  18,642  18,741 
Monthly  17,384  17,964  18,293  18,873  19,202 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,164  2,173  2,178  2,188  2,192 
Weekly  2,136  2,159  2,171  2,195  2,206 
Monthly  2,038  2,110  2,147  2,219  2,255 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,171  5,196  5,212  5,237  5,253 
Weekly  5,069  5,145  5,186  5,262  5,303 
Monthly  4,637  4,929  5,078  5,370  5,519 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 42.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 7 months up 2.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 41.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 6 months up 14.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 6 weeks up 4.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months up 38.0%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
16Head-and-shoulders bottom
16Triangle, symmetrical
13Broadening top
10Flag
7Dead-cat bounce
6Double Top, Adam and Adam
6Triangle, descending
5Diamond top
5Rising wedge
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Semiconductor2. Semiconductor
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Petroleum (Producing)
4. Building Materials4. Furn/Home Furnishings
5. Natural Gas (Diversified)5. Natural Gas (Diversified)
50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing50. Household Products
51. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)51. Retail (Special Lines)
52. Retail Store52. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
53. Electric Utility (East)53. Insurance (Life)
54. Shoe54. Securities Brokerage
55. Retail (Special Lines)55. Retail Store
56. Apparel56. Apparel
57. Short ETFs57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 8/5/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 23 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 634 stocks searched, or 3.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 13 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADTNTriangle, descending      07/20/201608/04/2016Telecom. Equipment
AMWDTriangle, symmetrical      07/14/201608/04/2016Building Materials
ANTMPipe top      07/18/201607/25/2016Medical Services
ATRDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/12/201607/29/2016Packaging and Container
BLLTriangle, symmetrical      06/23/201608/03/2016Packaging and Container
COHTriple top      07/18/201608/01/2016Apparel
CTSHTriangle, symmetrical      07/14/201608/03/2016IT Services
CVGBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      07/14/201608/04/2016Computer Software and Svcs
CROXDead-cat bounce      08/03/201608/03/2016Shoe
EIGIDead-cat bounce      08/02/201608/02/2016E-Commerce
GSOLTriangle, descending      06/28/201608/03/2016Advertising
HBIHead-and-shoulders top      07/14/201608/01/2016Apparel
HAYNTriangle, symmetrical      07/15/201608/04/2016Building Materials
NSPPipe top      07/18/201607/25/2016Human Resources
ITGRDead-cat bounce      07/29/201607/29/2016Electronics
KATEDead-cat bounce      08/03/201608/03/2016Apparel
LDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/14/201608/01/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
NEEDiamond top      07/14/201608/04/2016Electric Utility (East)
RTNChannel      04/05/201608/04/2016Aerospace/Defense
RLITriangle, symmetrical      07/21/201608/04/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SWNRising wedge      06/22/201608/04/2016Natural Gas (Diversified)
SMRTDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/19/201608/01/2016Apparel
ICFBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      07/13/201608/04/2016Long ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/28/2016 and 08/04/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 540 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $17.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.09 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.83%
Volume: 245,300 shares. 3 month avg: 442,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 07/20/2016 to 08/04/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

American Woodmark Corp (AMWD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 266 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $74.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.20 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.16%
Volume: 72,700 shares. 3 month avg: 220,726 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/14/2016 to 08/04/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Anthem (ANTM)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 527 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $126.82
1 Month avg volatility: $3.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $134.15 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.05%
Volume: 1,409,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,005,920 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/18/2016 to 07/25/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

AptarGroup Inc (ATR)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 481 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $76.78
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.66 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.68%
Volume: 172,600 shares. 3 month avg: 251,752 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 07/12/2016 to 07/29/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Ball Corp (BLL)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 258 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $78.51
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.37 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.95%
Volume: 7,240,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,083,689 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/23/2016 to 08/03/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Coach Inc. (COH)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 338 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $41.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.93 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 26.49%
Volume: 3,067,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,612,705 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 07/18/2016 to 08/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Top

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (CTSH)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 550 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $58.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.12 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.08%
Volume: 5,096,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,108,558 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/14/2016 to 08/03/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Convergys Corporation (CVG)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 435 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $26.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $27.68 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.79%
Volume: 265,500 shares. 3 month avg: 512,189 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 07/14/2016 to 08/04/2016
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top

CROCS Inc (CROX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 571 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $8.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.50 or 12.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -17.58%
Volume: 2,786,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,120,825 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/03/2016 to 08/03/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Endurance International Group Holdings (EIGI)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 604 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $6.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.45 or 10.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -38.06%
Volume: 1,112,800 shares. 3 month avg: 802,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/02/2016 to 08/02/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Global Sources Ltd (GSOL)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 444 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $8.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.38 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.56%
Volume: 3,500 shares. 3 month avg: 33,822 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/28/2016 to 08/03/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Hanesbrand Inc. (HBI)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 596 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $25.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.73 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.07%
Volume: 4,468,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,787,603 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 07/14/2016 to 08/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Top

Haynes International Inc. (HAYN)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 188 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $37.58
1 Month avg volatility: $1.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.79 or 10.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.43%
Volume: 88,400 shares. 3 month avg: 91,020 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/15/2016 to 08/04/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Insperity (NSP)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 49 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $67.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.86. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $72.15 or 7.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 39.58%
Volume: 196,900 shares. 3 month avg: 296,980 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/18/2016 to 07/25/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Integer Holdings Corp (ITGR)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 621 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $22.96
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25.20 or 9.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -56.27%
Volume: 376,800 shares. 3 month avg: 307,457 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/29/2016 to 07/29/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Kate Spade and Company (KATE)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 580 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $16.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.59 or 10.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.46%
Volume: 8,193,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,811,386 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/03/2016 to 08/03/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Loews Corp (L)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 384 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $40.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.54 or 2.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.18%
Volume: 613,500 shares. 3 month avg: 865,983 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/14/2016 to 08/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

NextEra Energy Inc (NEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 390 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $127.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $131.93 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 22.68%
Volume: 2,271,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,955,249 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/14/2016 to 08/04/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 424 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $140.47
1 Month avg volatility: $1.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $136.54 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.80%
Volume: 1,365,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,953,591 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/05/2016 to 08/04/2016

Top

RLI Corp (RLI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 334 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $68.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.49 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.53%
Volume: 59,200 shares. 3 month avg: 158,023 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/21/2016 to 08/04/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 31 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $14.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.23 or 13.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 101.55%
Volume: 13,277,600 shares. 3 month avg: 16,094,445 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 06/22/2016 to 08/04/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 309 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $8.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.07 or 9.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.18%
Volume: 63,100 shares. 3 month avg: 161,282 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/19/2016 to 08/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Top

iShares Cohen and Steers Realty Majors (ICF)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 322 out of 626
8/4/16 close: $109.43
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $112.31 or 2.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.27%
Volume: 183,000 shares. 3 month avg: 225,135 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 07/13/2016 to 08/04/2016
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top


Thursday 8/4/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.4% or 22.01 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 566 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 357 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 209 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 110/189 or 58.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 37/75 or 49.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

If you believe in Elliott wave, then this chart will give you a cheap thrill.

After price makes a strong move higher, completing its five wave structure (or how many extensions it might have), then price drops in an ABC move. That's one move down, a retrace, and another move down. The chart shows the first two of those moves (down (A) and retrace(B)).

Look for the index to close lower on Thursday if the wave pattern unfolds as expected. I show the C leg on the chart.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,368.37    
 Monthly S1  4,764.06  395.68   
 Monthly Pivot  4,969.93  205.88   
 Weekly S2  5,046.25  76.32   
 Weekly S1  5,103.00  56.74   
 Daily S2  5,118.01  15.01   
 Low  5,128.44  10.43   
 Open  5,133.24  4.80   
 Daily S1  5,138.87  5.63   
 Weekly Pivot  5,139.40  0.53   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,140.40  0.99   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,144.09  3.69   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,147.78  3.69   
 Daily Pivot  5,149.31  1.52   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,159.74  10.43   
 High  5,159.74  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  5,170.17  10.43   
 Daily R2  5,180.61  10.43   
 Weekly R1  5,196.15  15.54   
 Weekly R2  5,232.55  36.41   
 Monthly R1  5,365.62  133.06   
 Monthly R2  5,571.49  205.88   

Wednesday 8/3/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows a bearish signal (the red bar on the far right), which is a timely one. The index plummeted today (Tuesday).

However, the red bar could disappear if the index were to zip upward with a strong gain. That's why you can't trade this indicator, but it does serve as good background information.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 31% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 32%.
The fewest was 30% on 07/29/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 531 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 15% on 07/26/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

If you look closely at the red line, you'll see a bit of a bump on the right (circled). My belief is that the index was higher yesterday (Monday), but it dropped with today's large move down.

The numbers above don't reflect this. Thirty-two percent of stocks were in bear market territory last week but only 31% this week.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 8/2/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.2% or -27.73 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1153 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 579 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 574 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 120/200 or 60.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/60 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index over the past 10 days has been bobbing up and down within a descending channel.

The index at A has paused near the middle of the channel. That suggests a resumption of the up move will follow by pretending it is a measured move up chart pattern.

There's not a strong case for that here, though. That means the measured move doesn't have a long first leg (the move from the bottom of the channel up to the consolidation region at A). Thus, an upward breakout might falter, too.

If a bearish breakout were to occur, then it might result in a strong push downward.

$ $ $

I released a version 5.1 of Patternz. This has the List form implemented as well as many bug fixes. With this version, you can list the chart patterns and copy them to another program (like Excel) for analysis.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,470.94    
 Monthly S1  17,437.72  966.79   
 Monthly Pivot  18,029.87  592.14   
 Weekly S2  18,256.34  226.47   
 Daily S2  18,297.82  41.48   
 Weekly S1  18,330.42  32.61   
 Daily S1  18,351.16  20.74   
 Low  18,355.75  4.59   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,398.26  42.51   
 Close  18,404.51  6.25   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  18,409.10  4.59   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,411.39  2.29   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,424.52  13.13   
 Open  18,434.50  9.98   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  18,442.91  8.41   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  18,462.44  19.54   
 High  18,467.03  4.59   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  18,516.99  49.96   
 Daily R2  18,520.38  3.38   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  18,629.48  109.10   
 Monthly R1  18,996.65  367.18   
 Monthly R2  19,588.80  592.14   

Monday 8/1/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utility index on the daily scale.

You might think that the index formed a double top at AB.

Price pierced the horizontal line at C, but guess what. The index did not close below the line. That's important.

Because the index did not close below the line, what you are looking at are just squiggles on the price chart, and not a double top.

The move at D suggests and upward move, but we'll have to see about that.

Research says that there is a 63% probability that price will not confirm the double top. Instead, that's why you should wait for confirmation (a close below the valley between the two peaks) before trading the stock (shorting).

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 77.79 points.
Tuesday: Down 19.31 points.
Wednesday: Down 1.58 points.
Thursday: Down 15.82 points.
Friday: Down 24.11 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 138.61 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 61.97 points or 1.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 1.43 points or 0.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.0% down from the high of 18,622.01 on 07/20/2016.
     19.3% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     0.3% down from the high of 5,175.81 on 07/29/2016.
     22.6% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 2,177.09 on 07/29/2016.
     20.1% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

Top

Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Construction spending10:00 MDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Personal income & consumption8:30 TC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 TC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Auto & truck sales2:00 TC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Factory orders10:00 ThD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Trade balance8:30 FC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
Consumer credit3:00 FD-Measures auto, credit card and other debt.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,328  18,380  18,423  18,475  18,519 
Weekly  18,266  18,349  18,452  18,535  18,639 
Monthly  16,480  17,456  18,039  19,015  19,598 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,158  2,166  2,171  2,179  2,185 
Weekly  2,152  2,163  2,170  2,181  2,188 
Monthly  1,929  2,051  2,114  2,237  2,300 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,124  5,143  5,159  5,179  5,195 
Weekly  5,047  5,105  5,140  5,198  5,233 
Monthly  4,369  4,766  4,971  5,367  5,572 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.4%   The trend may continue. 
 6 months up 7.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.4%   The trend may continue. 
 5 months up 18.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 5 weeks up 7.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 46.6%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
30Pipe bottom
20Head-and-shoulders bottom
15Broadening top
13Triangle, symmetrical
10Flag
6Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
4Diamond top
4Double Top, Adam and Adam
4Rising wedge
4Triangle, descending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Semiconductor2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Petroleum (Producing)3. Natural Gas (Diversified)
4. Furn/Home Furnishings4. Metal Fabricating
5. Natural Gas (Diversified)5. Semiconductor
50. Household Products50. Drug
51. Retail (Special Lines)51. Securities Brokerage
52. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)52. Information Services
53. Insurance (Life)53. Retail Store
54. Securities Brokerage54. Retail (Special Lines)
55. Retail Store55. Biotechnology
56. Apparel56. Apparel
57. Short ETFs57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.