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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
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Patterns
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 06/23/2017
21,395 -2.53 0.0%
9,389 68.83 0.7%
725 -2.17 -0.3%
6,265 28.56 0.5%
2,438 3.80 0.2%
YTD
8.3%
3.8%
10.0%
16.4%
8.9%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 06/15/2017
21,600 or 21,000 by 07/01/2017
9,100 or 9,600 by 07/01/2017
720 or 745 by 07/01/2017
6,300 or 6,000 by 07/01/2017
2,525 or 2,390 by 07/01/2017

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August 2015 Headlines


Archives


Monday 8/31/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

One of the big questions many have been pondering is what happens now? Will the recovery be V-shaped, trend lower to form a double bottom, or just continue recovering?

That follows the large drop in the indices over the last two weeks.

The answer is easy: No one knows.

But we can guess.

A look at the chart shows the red line as a line of overhead resistance setup by the almost horizontal movement this year.

The V-shaped recovery has already occurred, but it's a narrow one. I show that in a weird blue color.

The V-shaped recovery could turn into an extended V bottom. In that chart pattern, the index looks like it's forming a flag. In other words, price moves horizontally to down, forming a kind of handle on the V-turn. See the image below for a picture of this extension.

An extended V-bottom could be what we're starting to see now. The rapid recovery in the indices has slowed and we might see it drift sideways to down.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of an extended v bottom.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 588.4 points.
Tuesday: Down 204.91 points.
Wednesday: Up 619.07 points.
Thursday: Up 369.26 points.
Friday: Down 11.76 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 183.26 points or 1.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 122.28 points or 2.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 17.98 points or 0.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     9.3% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     8.3% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
     7.7% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     12.5% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
     6.8% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     6.5% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 MBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Construction spending10:00 TDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Auto & truck sales5:00? TC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Productivity & costs8:30 WD+Cost of producing a unit of output.
Factory orders10:00 WD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FEDs Beige book2:00 W?Reports on economic conditions.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Trade balance8:30 ThC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 08/28/2015, the CPI had:

1 bearish patterns,
3 bullish patterns,
246 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 75.0%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  16,481  16,562  16,616  16,697  16,751 
Weekly  14,928  15,786  16,228  17,085  17,527 
Monthly  14,186  15,414  16,599  17,828  19,012 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  1,968  1,978  1,986  1,997  2,004 
Weekly  1,823  1,906  1,950  2,033  2,076 
Monthly  1,743  1,866  1,990  2,113  2,237 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,769  4,799  4,818  4,847  4,866 
Weekly  4,108  4,468  4,652  5,013  5,197 
Monthly  3,882  4,355  4,765  5,238  5,648 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 43.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 19.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 20.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 43.5%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 25.6%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
18Pipe top
16Dead-cat bounce
13Double Top, Adam and Adam
10Head-and-shoulders top
8Triangle, symmetrical
6Pipe bottom
6Channel
5Triple top
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
4Double Top, Eve and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Short ETFs
2. Short ETFs2. Shoe
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Cement and Aggregates4. Internet
5. Internet5. Insurance (Life)
50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing50. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.51. Petroleum (Integrated)
52. Petroleum (Integrated)52. Semiconductor
53. Semiconductor53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 8/28/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 580 stocks searched, or 3.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 15 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACETPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Chemical (Diversified)
ACXMScallop, ascending and inverted      08/03/201508/24/2015Computer Software and Svcs
AGOPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Insurance (Life)
BLLPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Packaging and Container
BZHBroadening wedge, descending      07/14/201508/24/2015Homebuilding
COGPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
EXPPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Cement and Aggregates
ELNKPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Internet
EDEBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      06/26/201508/26/2015Electric Utility (Central)
FEBroadening bottom      06/15/201508/26/2015Electric Utility (East)
GSOLTriangle, symmetrical      08/10/201508/27/2015Advertising
LGBroadening top      07/22/201508/24/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
MANPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Human Resources
MWWPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Advertising
NFGPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
OXYPipe top      08/17/201508/17/2015Petroleum (Producing)
OGEPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Electric Utility (Central)
PORPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Electric Utility (West)
RHIBroadening top, right-angled and descending      06/22/201508/24/2015Human Resources
COLPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Aerospace/Defense
SPFBroadening top      07/07/201508/26/2015Homebuilding
USGPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Building Materials

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/20/2015 and 08/27/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 93 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $22.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.94 or 10.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.10%
Volume: 199,600 shares. 3 month avg: 162,514 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Acxiom Corp (ACXM)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 98 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $20.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.21 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.01%
Volume: 465,000 shares. 3 month avg: 562,772 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 08/03/2015 to 08/24/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 247 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $24.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.53 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.04%
Volume: 1,545,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,301,271 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Ball Corp (BLL)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 306 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $65.88
1 Month avg volatility: $1.92. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $70.04 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.36%
Volume: 2,358,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,020,071 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 216 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $16.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.98 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.67%
Volume: 1,174,600 shares. 3 month avg: 523,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 07/14/2015 to 08/24/2015
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Cabot Oil and Gas A (COG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 473 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $23.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.91 or 7.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -22.05%
Volume: 12,896,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,880,831 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 127 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $80.76
1 Month avg volatility: $3.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $88.00 or 9.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.22%
Volume: 1,020,000 shares. 3 month avg: 714,649 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Earthlink, Inc (ELNK)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 3 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $8.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.32 or 10.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 91.80%
Volume: 913,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,236,858 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Empire District (EDE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 389 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $22.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.01 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -25.96%
Volume: 214,200 shares. 3 month avg: 241,051 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 06/26/2015 to 08/26/2015
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 314 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $32.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.64 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.62%
Volume: 4,199,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,728,295 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2015 to 08/26/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Global Sources Ltd (GSOL)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 11 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $7.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.91 or 12.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.37%
Volume: 31,300 shares. 3 month avg: 122,458 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/27/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Laclede Group (LG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 124 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $53.15
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.51 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.09%
Volume: 249,700 shares. 3 month avg: 276,674 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/22/2015 to 08/24/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Manpower Inc. (MAN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 71 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $87.79
1 Month avg volatility: $2.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $92.32 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 28.78%
Volume: 703,100 shares. 3 month avg: 653,172 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 54 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $6.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.57 or 10.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 48.48%
Volume: 1,811,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,340,615 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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National Fuel Gas (NFG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 445 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $54.01
1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $57.44 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -22.32%
Volume: 647,300 shares. 3 month avg: 484,265 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 345 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $70.56
1 Month avg volatility: $1.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $74.49 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -12.47%
Volume: 8,111,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,861,582 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/17/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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OGE Energy Corp (OGE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 394 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $28.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.84 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -19.56%
Volume: 1,351,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,149,563 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Portland General Electric Co. (POR)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 258 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $35.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.56 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.14%
Volume: 758,900 shares. 3 month avg: 759,503 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Robert Half International (RHI)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 401 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $52.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.28 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.11%
Volume: 1,089,100 shares. 3 month avg: 896,522 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 06/22/2015 to 08/24/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Rockwell Collins (COL)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 281 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $83.51
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $87.00 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.15%
Volume: 657,700 shares. 3 month avg: 887,025 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Standard Pacific (SPF)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 197 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $8.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.09 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.91%
Volume: 2,338,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,137,325 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/07/2015 to 08/26/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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USG Corp (USG)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 100 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $30.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.27 or 7.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.43%
Volume: 2,354,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,859,625 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thursday 8/27/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 4.2% or 191.05 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 6 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 2.6% on 3 occasions.
     Average loss was -4.4% on 3 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 91/153 or 59.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/65 or 49.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

A trading tip.

$ $ $

Here's a trading tip that I used in my day trading days that I want to pass on.

Suppose you have a trading setup that puts you long into a trade shown in the chart. At line A, the stock has made three consecutive higher peaks. That tells me we have a strong move upward. It's best if there is little overlap from price bar to price bar (I show overlap).

When the fourth price bar in the series appears, place a stop a penny or two below the prior bar. In this example, when A appears, place a stop below B.

When bar C appears, move the stop up to D. When bar E appears, raise the stop to F.

Notice that when the trend changes on bar E, it takes you out near the peak.

In these volatile times when runs are fast, I think this technique will help you get out near the top of a trend.

It also works for downtrends.

I use this technique on the opening gap setup I describe in my book, Swing and Day TradingSwing and Day Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.. I show a picture of the book on the right.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,352.61    
 Weekly S2  4,445.44  92.83   
 Daily S2  4,469.91  24.47   
 Monthly S1  4,525.07  55.17   
 Low  4,530.03  4.96   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S1  4,571.49  41.46   
 Daily S1  4,583.72  12.23   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,596.48  12.75   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,617.00  20.52   
 Open  4,633.51  16.51   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,637.52  4.02   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  4,643.85  6.32   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  4,697.54  53.69   
 High  4,703.97  6.43   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  4,757.66  53.69   
 Daily R2  4,817.79  60.12   
 Weekly Pivot  4,832.09  14.30   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly Pivot  4,878.51  46.42   
 Weekly R1  4,958.14  79.63   
 Monthly R1  5,050.97  92.83   
 Weekly R2  5,218.74  167.77   
 Monthly R2  5,404.41  185.67   

Wednesday 8/26/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator has hit bottom and seems to be pegged there.

As the chart shows, the red signal was a timely sell signal happening about a week ago. What it doesn't say is how violent the drop would be. Nor does it tell what will happen next. At least not yet.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 8/25/15. The Dow in 1987

Picture of the Dow in 1987

The markets are still open now but I am posting this anyway.

The chart shows the market crash of 1987 in detail.

On Friday, October 16, 1987, the Dow dropped 108 points. That's not big deal now, but back then it represented 5% of the index. That would correspond to a drop of 800 points as of Friday's close.

On Black Monday, October 19, the selling was even worse. The Dow dropped 508 points or 23%. In today's numbers, that's a drop of 3,800 points.

Now that's a drop worth noting.

The interesting part of this story is on Tuesday, 10/20 the index closed higher 6% and the next day, it was up 10%. After that, volatility remained as the index moved sideways to down until bottoming in early December.

After that, the index started a slower recovery.

Use history as a guide to what may happen this time.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Monday 8/24/15. Market Monday: A Longer View

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

This figure is taken from my Thursday 8/13/15. Dow: Big Drop Coming? post.

The C1 peak didn't happen and the drop occurred much sooner than the chart suggests.

In the post, I didn't think the drop would happen at all. Surprise!

At least I got part of it right.

What will happen now?

To answer that, I let's look at two more charts.

 

Picture of a bar chart of the results.

This chart is one you see each week, on Wednesday (blog) and also on Friday if you know where to look (click on the link).

I post the Friday chart after the market close (in the evening).

The indicator signaled a bearish turn about a week ago. It's still bearish.

Picture of a bar chart of the results.

I saved the best chart for last.

The blue box highlights today's markets on the monthly scale. I copied that area and placed it over the Dow Industrials and found two nearly exact matches of price action. The vertical red line shows approximately where the current Dow ends on the historical chart.

The first is CD and it matches the AB move. In the CD sequence, notice that the index continued slightly lower for several more months (about 6) before staging a whopper of a recovery.

The EF move also follows the contour of the AB move. After F, the index continues down for about 6 months but this one makes a steeper drop than does the post-D chart.

The recovery after it bottoms in 1966 brought the index back up to the left of the peak near F before heading lower again.

My view is that this correction has been too quick and sharp to be sustainable. It won't turn into a bear market. The charts suggest more of a down move coming, so I would be cautious adding to existing positions or buying new ones. Now is the time to nibble not jump in.

I think October may well surprise us in being a very good month. But September could see the market trying to recover with violent up and down swings.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 8/21/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 17 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 582 stocks searched, or 2.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 8 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AFLDiamond top      07/30/201508/18/2015Insurance (Diversified)
AEOTriple top      07/16/201508/18/2015Apparel
AMWDDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/31/201508/20/2015Building Materials
AVPPipe top      08/03/201508/10/2015Toiletries/Cosmetics
CBKDead-cat bounce      08/14/201508/14/2015Retail (Special Lines)
HBIPipe bottom      08/03/201508/10/2015Apparel
HLITTriangle, descending      07/30/201508/19/2015Telecom. Equipment
HONHead-and-shoulders top      07/20/201508/18/2015Aerospace/Defense
INFNRising wedge      06/22/201508/19/2015Telecom. Equipment
IDTIPipe top      08/03/201508/10/2015Semiconductor
MDCBroadening top, right-angled and descending      06/25/201508/19/2015Homebuilding
PXTriangle, symmetrical      07/27/201508/18/2015Chemical (Diversified)
RTNRoof, inverted      07/30/201508/19/2015Aerospace/Defense
SWCHead-and-shoulders bottom      07/24/201508/18/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
VFCHead-and-shoulders complex top      07/24/201508/18/2015Apparel
WMBPipe bottom      08/03/201508/10/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
IYHHead-and-shoulders complex top      06/22/201508/18/2015Long ETFs
PPADouble Top, Adam and Eve      08/10/201508/18/2015Aerospace/Defense
XLVHead-and-shoulders complex top      06/22/201508/18/2015Drug

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/13/2015 and 08/20/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
AFLAC Inc (AFL)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 229 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $61.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $64.31 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.26%
Volume: 3,519,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,235,369 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/30/2015 to 08/18/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 67 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $16.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.79 or 8.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.30%
Volume: 11,077,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,097,778 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 07/16/2015 to 08/18/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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American Woodmark Corp (AMWD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 17 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $60.31
1 Month avg volatility: $2.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $73.62 or 22.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 49.13%
Volume: 407,700 shares. 3 month avg: 168,211 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/31/2015 to 08/20/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Avon Products (AVP)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 554 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $5.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.81 or 15.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -46.54%
Volume: 9,378,700 shares. 3 month avg: 8,495,275 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/03/2015 to 08/10/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Christopher and Banks Corp (CBK)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 572 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $1.73
1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.44 or 16.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -69.70%
Volume: 518,800 shares. 3 month avg: 563,645 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 08/14/2015 to 08/14/2015

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Hanesbrand Inc. (HBI)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 189 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $30.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.48 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.05%
Volume: 3,462,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,436,657 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/03/2015 to 08/10/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Harmonic Inc (HLIT)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 504 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $5.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.17 or 9.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -19.26%
Volume: 332,400 shares. 3 month avg: 389,623 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 07/30/2015 to 08/19/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 249 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $102.64
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $107.00 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.72%
Volume: 3,987,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,485,035 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 07/20/2015 to 08/18/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 29 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $21.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.29 or 22.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 46.26%
Volume: 3,694,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,553,666 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 06/22/2015 to 08/19/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Integrated Device Technology (IDTI)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 404 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $17.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.82 or 12.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.95%
Volume: 3,706,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,394,955 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/03/2015 to 08/10/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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MDC Holdings Inc. (MDC)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 94 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $30.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.85 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.39%
Volume: 562,200 shares. 3 month avg: 721,660 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 06/25/2015 to 08/19/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Praxair Inc. (PX)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 386 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $111.65
1 Month avg volatility: $1.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $108.28 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.82%
Volume: 1,532,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,334,789 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/27/2015 to 08/18/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 202 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $107.64
1 Month avg volatility: $1.95. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $113.06 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.49%
Volume: 1,363,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,861,128 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 07/30/2015 to 08/19/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 511 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $9.87
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.60 or 12.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -33.04%
Volume: 2,397,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,761,252 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 07/24/2015 to 08/18/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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V. F. Corp (VFC)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 245 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $74.17
1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.57 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.97%
Volume: 1,458,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,832,631 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex top reversal pattern from 07/24/2015 to 08/18/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 67% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 53% of the time.

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Williams Companies Inc. (WMB)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 151 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $50.70
1 Month avg volatility: $1.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.18 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.82%
Volume: 6,222,600 shares. 3 month avg: 10,088,748 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/03/2015 to 08/10/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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iShares DJ US Healthcare (IYH)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 148 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $157.43
1 Month avg volatility: $1.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $164.53 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.23%
Volume: 165,200 shares. 3 month avg: 268,112 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex top reversal pattern from 06/22/2015 to 08/18/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 67% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 53% of the time.

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PowerShares Aerospace and Defense (PPA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 284 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $35.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.70 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.47%
Volume: 31,700 shares. 3 month avg: 29,562 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/18/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

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SPDR Health Care Select Sector (XLV)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 155 out of 574
8/20/15 close: $73.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.28 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.16%
Volume: 12,962,300 shares. 3 month avg: 8,027,783 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex top reversal pattern from 06/22/2015 to 08/18/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 67% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 53% of the time.

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Thursday 8/20/15. What is the Best Buy Price?

In July, this website received visits from 42,028 people that visited the site over 100,000 times. Of those 42,000 just 17 of you donated to keep this website free and available to everyone.

Thanks so much to those 17.

If you wish to keep viewing this site for free, then please join the 17 and donate now (just click on the below button to begin the process). Those donations help pay for the expenses of this site. Thanks.

$ $ $

I completed research that uncovered the best buy price for stocks. It appears that the less expensive the stock, the better the performance. Here's the chart.

Picture of a bar chart of the results.

The blue bars represent the gain from the day before the breakout to the ultimate high, sorted by the breakout price. The average rise of all trades was 42% (but don't expect to duplicate that result. It's for thousands of perfect trades).

Notice that stocks priced $20 or less were above the red line. Those $5 and below were the top performers.

What about failures? You can read the article for the answer.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Wednesday 8/19/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The two red lines that connect the peaks on both the index and indicator charts. This shows bullish divergence.

However, the indicator has dropped over the last few days, suggesting not a bullish divergence but weakness in the index.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

This chart shows a bearish signal occurring today.

Due to the way the indicator is composed, the signal could disappear.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 8/18/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.4% or 67.78 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1042 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 547 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 495 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/161 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/50 or 54.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I drew a trendline along the bottom of price action.

What I find interesting is the plunge at A. I know that rises or plunges along a trendline can mirror on the other side (see trendline mirrors). Thus, I expect the index to zip upward.

What is a caution for this, and explains why a quick move up may not happen, is that it hasn't happened yet. But we'll let it simmer for a day or two more to see if a quick move up will occur or not.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,591.39    
 Weekly S2  16,930.05  338.66   
 Monthly S1  17,068.29  138.23   
 Weekly S1  17,237.62  169.33   
 Daily S2  17,269.75  32.14   
 Low  17,341.72  71.97   
 Daily S1  17,407.47  65.75   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,421.82  14.35   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot  17,433.37  11.55   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,446.56  13.19   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,471.30  24.74   
 Open  17,472.66  1.36   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  17,479.43  6.77   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 Close  17,545.18  65.75   
 High  17,551.40  6.22   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot  17,602.70  51.30   
 Daily R1  17,617.15  14.44   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily R2  17,689.11  71.97   
 Weekly R1  17,740.94  51.82   
 Weekly R2  17,936.69  195.76   
 Monthly R1  18,079.60  142.90   
 Monthly R2  18,614.01  534.42   

Monday 8/17/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily chart.

Is this index an example of what I expect the other indices to do? Yes. But I don't expect the other indices to form a vertical run like that shown here.

The utilities have been underwater for most of the year, but are in the middle of the performance pack when compared to the other indices now.

That is probably due to the recent recovery as shown here.

The chart shows a broadening bottom with a partial decline at A. This drop suggests an upward breakout will follow immediately.

That's what happened as the chart shows.

In the coming week, I expect the index to retrace some since the move upward has been so sharp. The vertical move is unsustainable.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a horse.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 241.79 points.
Tuesday: Down 212.33 points.
Wednesday: Down 0.33 points.
Thursday: Up 5.74 points.
Friday: Up 69.15 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 104.02 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 4.7 points or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 13.97 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.8% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     2.6% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     3.5% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     10.6% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     2.0% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     5.6% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Housing starts8:30 TB-Number of homes beginning construction.
Building permits8:30 TB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Consumer price index8:30 WB+Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Minutes2:00 W?Minutes of the prior Federal Reserve meeting.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Existing home sales10:00 ThCCounts sales of used homes.
Leading indicators10:00 ThD-Summary of already known reports.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
VIX expiresWednesday
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 08/14/2015, the CPI had:

7 bearish patterns,
25 bullish patterns,
338 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 78.1%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,356  17,417  17,455  17,516  17,554 
Weekly  16,907  17,192  17,411  17,696  17,914 
Monthly  16,569  17,023  17,580  18,034  18,591 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,076  2,084  2,088  2,096  2,100 
Weekly  2,030  2,061  2,083  2,114  2,136 
Monthly  2,011  2,051  2,092  2,132  2,173 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,998  5,023  5,038  5,063  5,077 
Weekly  4,869  4,959  5,036  5,125  5,202 
Monthly  4,789  4,919  5,075  5,205  5,361 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 43.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 19.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 20.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 43.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 25.6%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
17Dead-cat bounce
12Channel
10Triangle, symmetrical
9Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
8Pipe bottom
8Broadening top
6Double Top, Adam and Adam
6Pipe top
6Broadening bottom
5Triple bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Shoe
2. Internet2. Internet
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Cement and Aggregates
4. Cement and Aggregates4. Furn/Home Furnishings
5. Insurance (Life)5. Insurance (Life)
50. Petroleum (Integrated)50. Electric Utility (Central)
51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.51. Metals and Mining (Div.)
52. Semiconductor52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 8/14/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 17 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 582 stocks searched, or 2.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABTChannel      03/16/201508/13/2015Medical Supplies
ACETPipe bottom      07/27/201508/03/2015Chemical (Diversified)
CEBroadening bottom      07/31/201508/12/2015Chemical (Basic)
CENXDead-cat bounce      08/07/201508/07/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
CLRPipe bottom      07/27/201508/03/2015Petroleum (Producing)
EOGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/27/201508/07/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
GNWPennant      08/10/201508/13/2015Insurance (Life)
ICONDead-cat bounce      08/07/201508/07/2015Shoe
LXUDead-cat bounce      08/07/201508/07/2015Building Materials
NTAPTriangle, descending      07/09/201508/12/2015Computers and Peripherals
NJRTriangle, symmetrical      07/16/201508/13/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
NFXPipe bottom      07/27/201508/03/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
OMCTriangle, symmetrical      07/21/201508/13/2015Advertising
UAMDead-cat bounce      08/07/201508/10/2015Insurance (Life)
WATBroadening top      07/14/201508/12/2015Precision Instrument
ZBRADead-cat bounce      08/11/201508/11/2015Computers and Peripherals
IYCBroadening top      07/13/201508/07/2015Retail Store
SHTriangle, symmetrical      07/07/201508/11/2015Short ETFs
SDSTriangle, symmetrical      07/07/201508/11/2015Short ETFs
SPYTriangle, symmetrical      07/07/201508/11/2015Long ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/06/2015 and 08/13/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 117 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $49.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.20 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.71%
Volume: 4,130,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,051,742 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/16/2015 to 08/13/2015

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Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 34 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $25.06
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.82 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.48%
Volume: 111,100 shares. 3 month avg: 159,923 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2015 to 08/03/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Celanese Corp (CE)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 106 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $64.70
1 Month avg volatility: $1.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.57 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.91%
Volume: 1,236,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,190,374 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 07/31/2015 to 08/12/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 573 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $5.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.32 or 26.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -75.98%
Volume: 3,171,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,712,220 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 08/07/2015 to 08/07/2015

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Continental Resources Inc. (CLR)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 507 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $33.92
1 Month avg volatility: $1.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.30 or 13.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.57%
Volume: 6,416,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,519,154 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2015 to 08/03/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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EOG Resources (EOG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 446 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $79.68
1 Month avg volatility: $2.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $73.48 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.46%
Volume: 5,889,700 shares. 3 month avg: 4,508,112 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/27/2015 to 08/07/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 549 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $5.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.60 or 11.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -38.59%
Volume: 5,633,400 shares. 3 month avg: 7,162,086 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/13/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/06/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/05/2015 and a 38% chance by 02/04/2016.
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Iconix Brand Group Inc. (ICON)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 572 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $13.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.56 or 14.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -59.87%
Volume: 1,321,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,164,635 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 08/07/2015 to 08/07/2015

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LSB Industries Inc (LXU)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 508 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $26.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.15 or 18.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.08%
Volume: 334,300 shares. 3 month avg: 175,434 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 08/07/2015 to 08/07/2015

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Network Appliance (NTAP)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 502 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $30.62
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.22 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -26.13%
Volume: 2,008,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,343,891 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 07/09/2015 to 08/12/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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New Jersey Resources Corp (NJR)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 405 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $28.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.55 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.56%
Volume: 272,100 shares. 3 month avg: 419,614 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/16/2015 to 08/13/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Newfield Exploration Company (NFX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 55 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $36.08
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.32 or 10.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.04%
Volume: 2,385,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,195,698 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2015 to 08/03/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 314 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $73.11
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.28 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.63%
Volume: 948,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,515,183 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/21/2015 to 08/13/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Universal American Financial Corp (UAM)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 498 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $7.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.49 or 9.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -22.41%
Volume: 665,000 shares. 3 month avg: 257,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 08/07/2015 to 08/10/2015

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Waters Corp (WAT)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 141 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $128.62
1 Month avg volatility: $2.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $134.41 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.11%
Volume: 388,300 shares. 3 month avg: 484,722 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/14/2015 to 08/12/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Zebra Technologies Corp (ZBRA)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 288 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $86.74
1 Month avg volatility: $3.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.31 or 9.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.05%
Volume: 900,200 shares. 3 month avg: 565,258 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 08/11/2015 to 08/11/2015

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DJ US consumer svcs index fnd (retail) (IYC)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 195 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $147.26
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $150.82 or 2.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.90%
Volume: 132,300 shares. 3 month avg: 57,926 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/13/2015 to 08/07/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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S and P short 1x ProShares (SH)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 306 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $21.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.57 or 2.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.56%
Volume: 3,012,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,304,366 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/07/2015 to 08/11/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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S and P short 2x ProShares (SDS)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 346 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $20.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.59 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.35%
Volume: 6,757,200 shares. 3 month avg: 9,138,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/07/2015 to 08/11/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SPDR S and P 500 (SPY)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 256 out of 574
8/13/15 close: $208.66
1 Month avg volatility: $1.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $204.67 or 1.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.52%
Volume: 89,351,700 shares. 3 month avg: 110,391,520 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/07/2015 to 08/11/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 8/13/15. Dow: Big Drop Coming?

The index climbed by 0.2% or 7.6 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 623 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 366 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 257 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 91/152 or 59.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/64 or 48.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

Several weeks ago, I was helping a financial consultant and this chart is similar to the one I created then. Let's talk about it.

Several people have written emails that claim to know a correction or even a bear market is coming. This chart is only a possibility of what might happen.

I mirrored the peaks to show the symmetry that has developed. The mirror focuses around peak A.

The peak to the right of A (point B1) mirrors peak B on the left.

Peak C on the left might, might mirror the one that I expect to form at C1 on the right (everything to the right of the green line has not occurred yet). Peak C1 could be a snap-back rally due to the Chinese devaluation...once they stop devaluing their currency, but it could form because of something else, too.

Going into September and October, the index could tumble like it frequently does during those two months. That could take the index down to near the launch price, D (far left).

Notice that D1 is higher than D. That is intentional since it's rare that price returns to or drops below the launch price.

The candle color right of the green line is bogus. I just copied the action from the left side of the chart, flipped it, and pasted it.

Will all of this play out as the chart shows? It's possible but I don't think so. Why not? Just a feeling. I'm still bullish and I think the economy is humming along better than people believe. The pessimism that abounds is overblown. That might stir panic buying when the indices begin a recovery that trends. People sitting on the sidelines will jump in, stimulating excessive buying that pushes the indices upward.

It's also possible that both scenarios will occur. This chart takes us to November and the year end rally begins the recovery that I expect to happen.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,728.85    
 Monthly S1  4,886.62  157.77   
 Daily S2  4,905.35  18.73   
 Weekly S2  4,906.16  0.81   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  4,945.79  39.63   
 Daily S1  4,974.87  29.08   
 Weekly S1  4,975.27  0.40   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,987.79  12.52   
 Open  4,994.52  6.73   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,000.77  6.25   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,013.75  12.98   
 Daily Pivot  5,015.31  1.56   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,044.39  29.08   
 High  5,055.75  11.36   
 Monthly Pivot  5,059.28  3.53   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Weekly Pivot  5,075.27  15.99   
 Daily R1  5,084.83  9.56   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R2  5,125.27  40.44   
 Weekly R1  5,144.38  19.11   
 Monthly R1  5,217.05  72.67   
 Weekly R2  5,244.38  27.33   
 Monthly R2  5,389.71  145.33   

Wednesday 8/12/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

Notice that the signal changed red today. That's bearish. But my portfolio wasn't hurt like I expected it to be from a 212 point drop in the Dow. That suggests today's trading narrowly affected some stocks more than others. Probably those that export to China (China devalued their currency by about 2% today, making exports cheaper).

My guess is the indicator will turn green again soon, perhaps in a snap-back rally on Wednesday.

$ $ $

I rode my bicycle over the 14.3 mile course that I use as a time trial and posted my fasted time this season: 18.88 mph. That run includes two mile long hills, a few smaller hills, six stop lights (three each way), and four stop signs, for which I stop.

I've been trying to hit the elusive 19 mph speed all season. I usually get it done at least once, but it's a challenge given that I'm closing in on 60 years of age and the heat at the start of my run was 87 degrees, with high humidity and winds at 9 mph (which is higher than 0 but not bad. Being out of the north east, they helped me power up both of the mile long hills).

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 8/11/15. When Do Chart Patterns Fail?

Today I completed and posted research on when chart patterns fail.

The fall/winter months (February and October through December) had fewer failures and the spring/summer months (March, April, June and July) had more failures.

You can read the full article at the above link.

$ $ $

I went on a 27 mile bicycle ride on Sunday. On the way back, I stopped at a 4-way stop sign and waited for my turn to cross the road.

As I was crossing, a car with two adults in it just drove right through the intersection, without stopping, pausing, or having a clue that anything was wrong. Fortunately, I saw the car approaching, and knowing that it was going too fast to stop, I slowed so that it missed hitting me by a few feet. The driver was talking with the passenger and apparently didn't see the stop sign. Oops.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Monday 8/10/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The chart shows a rare chart pattern: a diamond top.

The chart pattern boundaries suggest the index is going to turn upward.

However, August is known to be a doldrum month with traders on vacation, plus, we are in the middle of earnings season.

That means anything can happen.

 

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a T-shirt.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 91.66 points.
Tuesday: Down 47.51 points.
Wednesday: Down 10.22 points.
Thursday: Down 120.72 points.
Friday: Down 46.37 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 316.48 points or 1.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 84.74 points or 1.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 26.27 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.3% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     2.0% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     3.6% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     10.5% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     2.7% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     4.9% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Productivity & costs8:30 TD+Cost of producing a unit of output.
Wholesale inventories10:00 TD-Wholesale sales and inventory statistics.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Treasury budget2:00 WDTracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing).
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Retail sales8:30 ThA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
International trade8:30 ThC+Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others.
Business inventories10:00 ThC-Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.
Producer price index8:30 FB-Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation.
Industrial production9:15 FB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Capacity utilization9:15 FB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 08/07/2015, the CPI had:

19 bearish patterns,
13 bullish patterns,
303 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 40.6%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,220  17,297  17,356  17,433  17,492 
Weekly  17,027  17,200  17,452  17,626  17,878 
Monthly  16,738  17,056  17,597  17,914  18,455 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,061  2,069  2,076  2,084  2,091 
Weekly  2,041  2,059  2,086  2,104  2,131 
Monthly  1,996  2,037  2,085  2,126  2,174 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,986  5,015  5,035  5,064  5,084 
Weekly  4,906  4,975  5,075  5,144  5,244 
Monthly  4,729  4,886  5,059  5,216  5,389 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.8%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 19.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.1%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 20.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 30.4%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 25.6%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
15Channel
12Dead-cat bounce
8Broadening top
8Broadening bottom
7Triangle, symmetrical
6Double Top, Adam and Adam
6Pipe bottom
6Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
6Pipe top
6Triple bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Internet
2. Internet2. Shoe
3. Cement and Aggregates3. Cement and Aggregates
4. Furn/Home Furnishings4. Insurance (Life)
5. Insurance (Life)5. Furn/Home Furnishings
50. Electric Utility (Central)50. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
51. Metals and Mining (Div.)51. Electric Utility (West)
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Electric Utility (Central)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 8/7/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 17 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 583 stocks searched, or 2.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 4 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 9 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AMDPipe bottom      07/20/201507/27/2015Semiconductor
CDIDead-cat bounce      08/06/201508/06/2015Human Resources
CGNXDead-cat bounce      08/04/201508/04/2015Precision Instrument
FASTBroadening wedge, descending      06/23/201508/06/2015Retail Building Supply
GNWDead-cat bounce      08/05/201508/06/2015Insurance (Life)
KATEPipe bottom      07/20/201507/27/2015Apparel
PORBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      06/15/201507/31/2015Electric Utility (West)
QLGCDead-cat bounce      07/31/201507/31/2015Semiconductor
COLPennant      07/29/201508/06/2015Aerospace/Defense
^GSPCDiamond top      06/15/201507/31/2015None
SEEPipe bottom      07/20/201507/27/2015Packaging and Container
SLGNDiamond bottom      07/01/201508/06/2015Packaging and Container
SUNEDead-cat bounce      08/06/201508/06/2015Semiconductor
ABCODead-cat bounce      08/04/201508/04/2015Information Services
TREXDead-cat bounce      08/03/201508/03/2015Building Materials
UGIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/16/201507/31/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
VVUSDead-cat bounce      07/31/201508/06/2015Biotechnology
WGLBroadening bottom      07/01/201508/03/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
WSMPipe bottom      07/20/201507/27/2015Retail (Special Lines)
EWJTriangle, symmetrical      06/23/201508/06/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
XHBBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      07/07/201507/31/2015Homebuilding

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/30/2015 and 08/06/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 529 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $2.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.88 or 11.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.97%
Volume: 9,475,700 shares. 3 month avg: 16,092,651 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/20/2015 to 07/27/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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CDI Corp (CDI)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 566 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $9.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.69 or 10.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -45.17%
Volume: 117,000 shares. 3 month avg: 54,082 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 08/06/2015 to 08/06/2015

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Cognex (CGNX)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 314 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $37.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.69 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.99%
Volume: 1,371,700 shares. 3 month avg: 858,660 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 08/04/2015 to 08/04/2015

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Fastenal Company (FAST)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 339 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $40.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.37 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.64%
Volume: 2,798,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,009,862 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 06/23/2015 to 08/06/2015
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 539 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $5.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.54 or 13.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -38.59%
Volume: 25,983,200 shares. 3 month avg: 7,035,366 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 08/05/2015 to 08/06/2015

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Kate Spade and Company (KATE)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 554 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $20.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.92 or 11.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -36.49%
Volume: 4,453,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,504,238 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/20/2015 to 07/27/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Portland General Electric Co. (POR)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 386 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $35.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.18 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.15%
Volume: 558,100 shares. 3 month avg: 722,511 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 06/15/2015 to 07/31/2015
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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QLogic Corp (QLGC)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 540 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $9.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.42 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -30.11%
Volume: 1,154,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,206,335 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 07/31/2015 to 07/31/2015

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Rockwell Collins (COL)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 311 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $85.15
1 Month avg volatility: $1.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.70 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.79%
Volume: 946,200 shares. 3 month avg: 871,425 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 07/29/2015 to 08/06/2015
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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S and P 500 (^GSPC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
8/6/15 close: $2,083.56
1 Month avg volatility: $18.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2,139.31 or 2.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.20%
Volume: 611,690,600 shares. 3 month avg: 554,074,849 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 06/15/2015 to 07/31/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Sealed Air Corp (SEE)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 33 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $54.62
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.23 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 28.73%
Volume: 2,363,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,033,608 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/20/2015 to 07/27/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Silgan Holdings Inc (SLGN)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 305 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $53.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.21 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.17%
Volume: 158,900 shares. 3 month avg: 179,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 07/01/2015 to 08/06/2015
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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SunEdison (SUNE)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $17.08
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.69 or 19.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.46%
Volume: 78,367,200 shares. 3 month avg: 12,844,238 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 08/06/2015 to 08/06/2015

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The Advisory Board Company (ABCO)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 319 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $47.94
1 Month avg volatility: $1.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.17 or 12.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.12%
Volume: 1,832,300 shares. 3 month avg: 387,131 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 08/04/2015 to 08/04/2015

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Trex Company (TREX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 406 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $39.78
1 Month avg volatility: $1.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.36 or 11.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.58%
Volume: 1,023,400 shares. 3 month avg: 403,103 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 08/03/2015 to 08/03/2015

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UGI Corp. (UGI)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 356 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $34.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.35 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.98%
Volume: 1,254,900 shares. 3 month avg: 891,617 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/16/2015 to 07/31/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Vivus Inc (VVUS)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 570 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $1.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $0.85 or 27.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -59.38%
Volume: 2,238,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,073,395 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 07/31/2015 to 08/06/2015

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WGL Holdings (WGL)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 300 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $55.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.76 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.08%
Volume: 239,100 shares. 3 month avg: 261,152 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 07/01/2015 to 08/03/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 200 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $84.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.50 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.05%
Volume: 629,200 shares. 3 month avg: 702,025 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/20/2015 to 07/27/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MSCI Japan Index fund (EWJ)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 131 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $12.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.69 or 1.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.77%
Volume: 17,954,500 shares. 3 month avg: 29,389,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/23/2015 to 08/06/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SPDR Homebuiilders ETF (XHB)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 231 out of 575
8/6/15 close: $36.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.34 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.77%
Volume: 1,729,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,953,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 07/07/2015 to 07/31/2015
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Thursday 8/6/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.7% or 34.39 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 385 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 241 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 144 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 91/151 or 60.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/64 or 48.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index found support at the red line today.

Since it made a lower peak above and to the right of A, I think you'll see the index close lower tomorrow. Today's chart just looks weak.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,760.70    
 Monthly S1  4,950.32  189.62   
 Weekly S2  4,977.45  27.13   
 Weekly S1  5,058.69  81.25   
 Monthly Pivot  5,091.13  32.44   
 Daily S2  5,105.62  14.49   
 Weekly Pivot  5,106.86  1.24   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  5,122.78  15.92   
 Low  5,131.86  9.08   
 Open  5,132.77  0.91   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Close  5,139.94  7.17   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,148.44  8.50   
 Daily Pivot  5,149.02  0.58   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,153.56  4.54   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,158.68  5.12   
 Daily R1  5,166.18  7.50   
 High  5,175.26  9.08   
 Weekly R1  5,188.10  12.84   
 Daily R2  5,192.42  4.32   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  5,236.27  43.85   
 Monthly R1  5,280.75  44.48   
 Monthly R2  5,421.56  140.81   

Wednesday 8/5/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. It shows signal changes.

The indicator has flipped to bearish again as the red line shows.

That suggests the index will be dropping...at least for a while. In reality, the signal can flip quickly (meaning the signal could disappear if the index jumps).

$ $ $

I survived jury duty. This was the fourth time I've been called. In fact, the first three times happened within a year of each other. According to what I've read about how it works locally, that can't happen.

They choose 200,000 jury members out of 1,000,000 each year. So how did I get called three times in a year? I have no idea.

Today's trial was a criminal trial involving drugs (heroin and meth) but that's all they would say.

We waited 45 minutes while the lawyers pondered the answers to our questionnaires. Then the government lawyers spoke to us and questioned us for over 2 hours. Then the defense questioned us for about 30 minutes.

Following that, they selected the 12 people that would make up the jury out of the 60 people called for jury duty.

The man to my right was chosen to serve on the jury and so was the woman on my left. They skipped me and I don't know why.

I collected my $6 of pay, had a sore butt from sitting on the wooden bench for 3 hours, and a stiff neck.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 8/4/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.5% or -91.66 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 728 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 359 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 369 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/161 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 26/49 or 53.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

Before I discuss Monday's trading, let me remind you that if you wish this website to remain free with open access for all, then please donate to defray its operating expense. Thanks.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The AB move is a rounding turn that I'm calling a rounded top even though it might not look like a topping pattern.

Statistics from my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition, says that upward breakouts occur 53% of the time. That means the stock has to rise and close above the top of the pattern. That looks like wishful thinking except for the upward trend in the last few minutes of the session.

A downward breakout means a close below the right bottom, which looks easily enough.

The chart pattern indicator turned bearish today, too, but that signal could easily change to bullish. That also supports a bearish move coming.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,973.55    
 Weekly S2  17,209.23  235.69   
 Monthly S1  17,285.87  76.64   
 Daily S2  17,391.71  105.83   
 Weekly S1  17,403.72  12.01   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  17,494.95  91.24   
 Low  17,496.61  1.66   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,576.12  79.51   
 Weekly Pivot  17,593.65  17.53   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  17,598.20  4.55   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  17,599.86  1.66   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,600.69  0.83   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,625.25  24.56   
 Open  17,696.74  71.49   
 Daily R1  17,703.10  6.36   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  17,704.76  1.66   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Monthly Pivot  17,711.50  6.74   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  17,788.14  76.64   
 Daily R2  17,808.01  19.87   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  17,978.07  170.07   
 Monthly R1  18,023.82  45.75   
 Monthly R2  18,449.45  425.62   

Monday 8/3/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

A broadening top chart pattern appears outlined here in red.

The pattern sports a broadening price series, with two diverging trendlines that bound price action.

This broadening top is interesting because of the partial decline at A.

A partial decline predicts an immediate upward breakout. Unfortunately, it's not always accurate.

But an upward breakout would be music to the hearts those traders and investors holding stocks long.

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 127.94 points.
Tuesday: Up 189.68 points.
Wednesday: Up 121.12 points.
Thursday: Down 5.41 points.
Friday: Down 56.12 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 121.33 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 39.65 points or 0.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 24.19 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.6% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     3.8% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     2.0% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     12.4% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     1.4% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     6.2% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Personal income & consumption8:30 MC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 MC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Construction spending10:00 MDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Auto & truck sales5:00? MC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Factory orders10:00 TD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
Trade balance8:30 WC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Consumer credit3:00 FD-Measures auto, credit card and other debt.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 07/31/2015, the CPI had:

9 bearish patterns,
14 bullish patterns,
275 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 60.9%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,603  17,646  17,715  17,758  17,827 
Weekly  17,240  17,465  17,624  17,849  18,009 
Monthly  17,004  17,347  17,742  18,085  18,480 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,095  2,099  2,107  2,111  2,119 
Weekly  2,043  2,073  2,094  2,124  2,145 
Monthly  2,005  2,054  2,094  2,143  2,182 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,103  5,115  5,135  5,148  5,168 
Weekly  4,974  5,051  5,103  5,180  5,232 
Monthly  4,757  4,943  5,087  5,273  5,418 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 43.5%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 52.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 53.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 43.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 48.2%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
16Channel
10Pipe bottom
10Broadening bottom
9Broadening top
7Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
6Triangle, symmetrical
6Triple bottom
5Pipe top
5Double Top, Adam and Adam
4Head-and-shoulders bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Shoe2. Internet
3. Cement and Aggregates3. Shoe
4. Insurance (Life)4. Insurance (Life)
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. Furn/Home Furnishings
50. Semiconductor Cap Equip.50. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
51. Electric Utility (West)51. Electric Utility (West)
52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Electric Utility (Central)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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