Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 04/19/2021
  Indus: 34,078 -123.04 -0.4%  
  Trans: 14,799 -120.71 -0.8%  
  Utils: 921 -2.88 -0.3%  
  Nasdaq: 13,915 -137.57 -1.0%  
  S&P 500: 4,163 -22.21 -0.5%  
YTD
 +11.3%  
 +18.3%  
 +6.5%  
 +8.0%  
 +10.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/15/2021  
  Up arrow34,800 or 32,900 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow15,200 or 14,000 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow950 or 885 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow15,000 or 12,900 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow4,400 or 3,900 by 05/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/25/21
As of 04/19/2021
  Indus: 34,078 -123.04 -0.4%  
  Trans: 14,799 -120.71 -0.8%  
  Utils: 921 -2.88 -0.3%  
  Nasdaq: 13,915 -137.57 -1.0%  
  S&P 500: 4,163 -22.21 -0.5%  
YTD
 +11.3%  
 +18.3%  
 +6.5%  
 +8.0%  
 +10.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/15/2021  
  Up arrow34,800 or 32,900 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow15,200 or 14,000 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow950 or 885 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow15,000 or 12,900 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow4,400 or 3,900 by 05/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/25/21

 

April 2021 Headlines

Archives


Tuesday 4/20/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Yahoo

The index dropped by -0.4% or -123.04 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 924 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 468 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 456 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 223/391 or 57.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Yahoo (YHOO).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 138 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, AXDX, AYI, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALKS, ADS, ALL, AEE, AEO, ABC, AON, APOG, AAPL, ACGL, AXS, BMI, BSET, BIG, BMRN, BA, CLS, CHS, CHD, CLF, CNO, CMTL, CLR, CLGX, COST, DHR, BOOM, WIRE, EVH, EXC, EZPW, FFG, FDX, FEYE, FMC, FWRD, FCX, FRD, GPS, GNW, GOOGL, GPRO, HBI, HSII, HNI, HOLX, HUBG, IEX, INCY, INFN, INOV, IBKR, JAZZ, KLIC, LRCX, LLY, LNC, LMT, MHO, MRO, MTRN, MDCA, MU, NEE, NI, NVDA, OMCL, OXM, PCG, PNW, PPL, PINC, RMBS, RCKY, RES, SAIA, SEIC, SRE, SLGN, SO, SCCO, SWX, SCS, SSYS, TER, TEVA, TJX, TOL, TRV, TG, UGI, VFC, VMC, WAT, WERN, WSM, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IHI, IDU, FDN, ICF, IYZ, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWH, EWW, EPP, EWP, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, PBE, PHO, XLP, XLB, XLU, UNG, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,283.26    
 Monthly S1  32,680.44  1,397.19   
 Weekly S2  33,249.16  568.72   
 Monthly Pivot  33,468.60  219.43   
 Weekly S1  33,663.40  194.80   
 Daily S2  33,878.37  214.97   
 Weekly Pivot  33,960.07  81.70   
 Daily S1  33,978.00  17.93   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  33,980.56  2.56   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,057.66  77.10   
 Close  34,077.63  19.97   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  34,080.19  2.56   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,081.47  1.28   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,105.29  23.82   
 Daily R1  34,179.82  74.54   
 Open  34,182.38  2.56   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  34,182.38  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  34,282.01  99.63   
 Weekly R1  34,374.30  92.29   
 Weekly R2  34,670.98  296.68   
 Monthly R1  34,865.79  194.80   
 Monthly R2  35,653.94  788.15   

Monday 4/19/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

This is a picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

It's a boring picture, really, but it's also scary.

I drew a curved trendline in red, hugging price valleys. Notice how the slope of it climbs rapidly, maybe exponentially on the upper right.

When a trendline turns sharply higher, as in this case, the uptrend can't continue rising at the same or higher rate. The index will pierce the trendline and will often resume rising at a slower rate.

If you ignore the red line and drill down on the trend over the last 2 weeks, then the slope of the upward climb is less steep. That means it's more sustainable.

The result of this analysis tells me that the Dow is going to retrace. It's actually overdue based on the distance between prior valleys. We do know the index will retrace. But we don't know when.


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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 55.2 points.
Tuesday: Down 68.13 points.
Wednesday: Up 53.62 points.
Thursday: Up 305.1 points.
Friday: Up 164.68 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 400.07 points or 1.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 152.15 points or 1.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 56.67 points or 1.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.2% down from the high of 34,256.75 on 04/16/2021.
     14.6% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     0.9% down from the high of 14,175.12 on 02/16/2021.
     13.4% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 4,191.31 on 04/16/2021.
     14.3% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,973  34,087  34,172  34,286  34,370 
Weekly  33,290  33,745  34,001  34,456  34,712 
Monthly  31,324  32,762  33,510  34,948  35,695 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,162  4,174  4,183  4,194  4,203 
Weekly  4,087  4,136  4,164  4,213  4,240 
Monthly  3,739  3,962  4,077  4,300  4,415 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,945  13,999  14,031  14,084  14,116 
Weekly  13,688  13,870  13,966  14,149  14,245 
Monthly  12,358  13,205  13,634  14,481  14,910 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 177 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AXDX, AYI, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, AA, ALL, AMED, AXP, AFG, APH, APOG, AWI, ASH, AIZ, AVNT, AXS, BZH, BBBY, BKH, BKNG, EPAY, BMY, BLDR, BG, CBT, CACI, CE, CX, CHD, CLF, CNO, ED, CONN, CLR, CRH, CTS, DHR, ^DJU, D, DTE, EIX, WIRE, EQT, EVH, FB, FFG, FDX, FEYE, FMC, FCX, FDP, GPS, GNW, GPN, GL, GPRO, EVRG, THG, HSC, HD, HUBG, IEX, ILMN, INCY, INFN, INOV, IBP, ITGR, JCOM, LRCX, LANC, LAWS, RAMP, LMT, LOW, MAN, MRO, MLM, MAS, MTRN, MGEE, MYGN, NTAP, NJR, NXGN, NI, NVDA, OGE, PDCO, PFE, PCG, PNW, POR, PPG, RMBS, ROK, ROG, SAIA, SRE, SHW, SCCO, SWX, SWN, SR, STMP, SSYS, TER, TXN, TKR, TOL, UGI, VMI, VMC, WERN, WLK, WMB, IYM, IYK, IYC, IHI, IDU, DDM, FDN, BOTZ, ICF, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWS, EWD, EWL, EWU, PPA, DBA, PBE, PJP, PHO, IEV, ILF, MXI, GLD, XLI, XLB, XLU, UNG, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Retail (Special Lines)
3. Apparel3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Apparel
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Petroleum (Producing)
6. Securities Brokerage6. Securities Brokerage
7. Petroleum (Integrated)7. Computers and Peripherals
8. Computers and Peripherals8. Petroleum (Integrated)
9. Advertising9. Furn/Home Furnishings
10. Furn/Home Furnishings10. Electronics
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Medical Supplies50. Natural Gas (Diversified)
51. Natural Gas (Diversified)51. Medical Supplies
52. Electric Utility (West)52. Electric Utility (West)
53. Electric Utility (Central)53. Food Processing
54. Food Processing54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Electric Utility (East)55. Healthcare Information
56. Healthcare Information56. Electric Utility (East)
57. E-Commerce57. E-Commerce
58. Household Products58. Household Products
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/16/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 132 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, AMD, ALL, DOX, AEE, AEO, AXP, AIG, ANTM, APOG, ASH, AVNT, BSET, BZH, BERY, BMRN, EPAY, CLS, CHD, CIEN, CLNE, CLF, CONN, CLR, CROX, CCRN, CCK, DHR, EMR, EPAM, RE, FFIV, FB, FFG, FE, FDP, GPN, GPRO, THG, HSC, ITW, ILMN, IIIN, ITGR, JCOM, JAZZ, LH, LEG, LMT, L, M, MRO, MA, MTRN, MDC, MDT, MLHR, MLI, CNR, NI, JWN, NVDA, PKG, PKE, PCG, PICO, PINC, PEG, QCOM, RGS, REV, RHI, ROST, SMG, SEE, SWX, STMP, TXT, TOL, VMI, VRSN, V, WSO, XLNX, IHI, IEZ, IDU, BOTZ, ICF, IHF, SLV, EWA, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWL, EWT, EWU, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, IEV, ILF, MXI, GLD, XAR, XLU, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 32 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 5.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 19 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (9) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ATSGTriangle, symmetrical      03/19/202104/15/2021Air Transport
ASHTriangle, symmetrical      03/15/202104/15/2021Chemical (Basic)
BIGTriangle, symmetrical      03/22/202104/15/2021Retail Store
EPAYUgly double bottom      03/25/202104/09/2021Computer Software and Svcs
BMYUgly double bottom      03/04/202104/09/2021Drug
CBTTriangle, symmetrical      03/18/202104/15/2021Chemical (Diversified)
CCRNTriangle, ascending      03/25/202104/13/2021Human Resources
CTSFalling wedge      11/30/202004/14/2021Electronics
DHRRounding bottom      02/16/202104/13/2021Precision Instrument
EOGTriangle, symmetrical      03/09/202104/15/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
GDTriangle, symmetrical      04/07/202104/15/2021Aerospace/Defense
GSScallop, descending      03/18/202104/14/2021Securities Brokerage
HBITriangle, symmetrical      03/19/202104/15/2021Apparel
HOVFlag, high and tight      02/26/202104/15/2021Homebuilding
INFNTriangle, symmetrical      03/18/202104/14/2021Telecom. Equipment
JCOMScallop, ascending      03/16/202104/15/2021Internet
LZBTriangle, symmetrical      03/29/202104/15/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
RAMPTriangle, descending      03/08/202104/15/2021Computer Software and Svcs
MANHTriangle, symmetrical      03/01/202104/09/2021IT Services
MLMRoof, inverted      02/19/202104/15/2021Cement and Aggregates
NTGRTriangle, descending      03/25/202104/14/2021Telecom. Equipment
NXGNTriangle, descending      03/05/202104/14/2021Healthcare Information
PDCOTriangle, ascending      03/01/202104/15/2021Medical Supplies
PORScallop, ascending      03/16/202104/15/2021Electric Utility (West)
KWRTriangle, symmetrical      03/18/202104/15/2021Chemical (Specialty)
RLITriangle, ascending      03/23/202104/15/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SRScallop, ascending      03/17/202104/12/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
SXITriangle, descending      03/26/202104/15/2021Diversified Co.
TDOCUgly double bottom      03/29/202104/12/2021Healthcare Information
VMITriangle, symmetrical      03/05/202104/15/2021Metal Fabricating
VRTXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      03/26/202104/09/2021Biotechnology
WUTriangle, ascending      03/18/202104/13/2021Financial Services

 

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Thursday 4/15/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -1.0% or -138.26 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 151 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 67 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.5% on 84 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 55.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 213/375 or 56.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/121 or 47.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew the red line because it's the first thing that caught my eye. Notice that the composite has pierced the line of support and is moving lower.

A head-and-shoulders top chart pattern appears as the deciding factor on direction. The left shoulder (LS), head, and right shoulder (RS) appear on the chart as drawn. If you look at the daily chart of the Nasdaq (not shown), you'd see the composite peaking near the mid February high and is now moving lower (for at least one day). It tells me to expect weakness in the composite as it drops back. I don't know how far down it will go. It could even rebound and move higher tomorrow or in the coming days. But if it stalls soon near the old high, there's a good chance it'll fall after that.

I've been expecting it to drop going into June. I may buy some tech offerings then or between now and then if weakness persists.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, AA, ALL, AYX, AFG, AIG, APH, APOG, AAPL, ATO, ADSK, AVNT, BSET, BKNG, EPAY, CALM, CE, CX, CHD, CLF, CNA, CNO, CL, CLR, CR, CW, DHR, ^DJI, DRQ, EMN, EBAY, RE, FE, FISV, GME, GPS, GNW, GOOGL, HSIC, HSY, HON, ILMN, INFN, IBP, TILE, IPI, INTU, JCOM, KFRC, LB, LEG, L, MANH, MCHX, MLM, MDT, MU, MLHR, MS, MLI, NBR, ^IXIC, NFLX, NXGN, NUS, PYPL, PCG, PFG, PEG, RNG, RHI, ROK, SAIA, CRM, SIGI, SWX, SUM, SNPS, TGT, RIG, UGI, VMC, WDAY, XLNX, IYK, IDU, FDN, QTEC, ICF, IHF, IYZ, IYF, EWA, EWK, EWC, EWG, EWH, EWW, EPP, EWY, EWP, EWL, QLD, PPA, DBA, QQQ, IXN, ILF, MXI, XLY, XHB, XLI, XLU, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,878.41    
 Monthly S1  12,868.12  989.72   
 Monthly Pivot  13,386.77  518.64   
 Weekly S2  13,459.35  72.59   
 Weekly S1  13,658.60  199.24   
 Daily S2  13,715.58  56.98   
 Weekly Pivot  13,782.00  66.42   
 Daily S1  13,786.71  4.71   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  13,839.04  52.33   
 Close  13,857.84  18.80   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  13,910.17  52.33   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,913.37  3.20   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,936.33  22.96   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,959.30  22.96   
 Weekly R1  13,981.25  21.95   
 Daily R1  13,981.30  0.05   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Open  14,004.08  22.78   
 High  14,033.63  29.55   
 Weekly R2  14,104.65  71.02   
 Daily R2  14,104.76  0.11   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  14,376.48  271.72   
 Monthly R2  14,895.13  518.64   

Wednesday 4/14/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This chart shows the same situation that I've been discussing most Wednesday's for the past few months.

There's a bullish green bar on the far right of the chart, but the index is warning of a coming downturn. That warning this week is bearish divergence. I drew two brown/yellow lines to highlight it.

The index is making higher peaks and the indicator is trending lower. The thinking is that the index will follow the CPI line. However, divergence can last for months (look at Nov 2020 to late Jan on the chart) and the drop in the index might not amount to much. It'll occur, but it could be minor or major. We'll just have to see.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 12% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 10%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 78% on 04/21/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 469 stocks in my database are down an average of 9% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 9%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 36% on 04/21/2020.

This chart also shows divergence between the index and the red line. Divergence on this chart is rare. Usually the blue and red lines track the index closely.

Both charts are hinting of coming weakness. Indeed, the red line turned bearish with 12% of the stocks I follow in my database are now in bear market territory, down from 10%. So I'm still expecting the indices to retrace and holding cash to deploy even as the market soar.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 137 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, AXDX, ADBE, AEIS, AA, ALL, AMZN, AEP, APOG, ARW, AVNT, BIG, BIO, BA, CACI, CALM, CLS, CVX, CHS, CHD, CLF, CMTL, ED, CLR, DHR, D, DRQ, DTE, EMN, EBAY, EOG, EXC, XOM, FB, FDS, FEYE, FE, FISV, GPRO, GES, HSC, HURC, ILMN, INOV, IPAR, IPI, JCOM, JAZZ, JNJ, KELYA, LB, LAWS, LEG, MDT, MGEE, MU, MS, MLI, NOV, NTGR, NEE, OXY, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, OMI, PDCO, PYPL, PEG, KWR, RLI, RCKY, ROG, RES, SLB, SAIC, SEIC, SIGI, SRE, SMTC, SWX, SWN, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, SLCA, VLO, VMI, VC, WMB, WSM, WDAY, XEL, IYK, IYE, IHI, IEO, IEZ, IDU, FDN, ICF, SLV, IGE, EWK, EWJ, EWL, THD, QLD, IBB, DBA, PXJ, QQQ, IXC, IXN, XLE, XHB, XRT, XLU, UNG, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/13/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.2% or -55.2 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1214 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 612 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 602 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 223/390 or 57.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Exxon: XOM (actual trade).

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Here's a symbol list of 154 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACIW, AYI, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, ALRM, ALL, AMWD, ARCB, ARW, AXS, BSET, BECN, BZH, BIO, BMRN, BKH, BA, EPAY, BMY, BRKS, BBW, CLS, CENX, CF, CVX, CHD, CIEN, CSOD, CREE, CCK, CW, DDS, DFS, EOG, EQT, EL, XOM, EZPW, FOE, FIVN, FRD, GPS, GPRO, GES, HLIT, HSC, HSII, HON, HURC, INFN, INTC, TILE, IPI, NVTA, JBLU, KLIC, LZB, RAMP, MTSI, MRO, MRTN, MAS, MTRX, MDC, MDCA, MDT, MGEE, MCO, MS, MLI, NOC, NWPX, NUS, OXY, ORI, OLN, ASGN, PKG, PKE, PAYX, PRFT, PCG, POR, PRU, KWR, RMBS, REV, RLI, ROG, RES, SAIA, SLB, SMTC, SCCO, SWN, SSYS, SRDX, TECH, TDOC, TPX, TDC, TOL, RIG, TZOO, UGI, VFC, VLO, IYK, IYE, ITB, IEO, IEZ, IDU, ICF, IYH, IHF, IYZ, IGE, EWK, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWS, EZA, THD, PPA, PXJ, PJP, IXC, SSO, XLE, XHB, XLI, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,730.30    
 Monthly S1  31,737.85  2,007.55   
 Monthly Pivot  32,774.36  1,036.51   
 Weekly S2  33,004.39  230.04   
 Weekly S1  33,374.90  370.50   
 Weekly Pivot  33,592.88  217.98   
 Daily S2  33,611.73  18.84   
 Low  33,665.54  53.81   
 Daily S1  33,678.56  13.02   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,711.63  33.07   
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,725.86  14.23   
 Daily Pivot  33,732.38  6.51   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,740.10  7.73   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  33,745.40  5.30   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  33,775.06  29.66   
 High  33,786.19  11.13   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  33,799.21  13.02   
 Daily R2  33,853.03  53.81   
 Weekly R1  33,963.39  110.36   
 Weekly R2  34,181.38  217.99   
 Monthly R1  34,781.91  600.54   
 Monthly R2  35,818.42  1,036.51   

Monday 4/12/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This is the Dow transports on the daily chart.

A weird looking double bottom appears at AB. I write "weird" because price normally drops into a chart pattern, not rises into it like we see here.

The pattern confirms as valid when price closes above the horizontal red line.

At C, the index throws back to the breakout price.

Notice the move up from the low at B to the high at D. I show that with the green line. Nice! Very nice, indeed.

I don't see anything which might dampen the upward move except maybe a retrace. The up move has been in place for a while now, so they are due for a break. The transports are the best performing index this year, up 19% as I write this.

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I received my first Covid-19 shot (Moderna) today. It's 8 hours later and I feel fine. Almost no pain in my arm either. I had to wait in my car for 38 minutes (mostly winding through S-turns in a parking lot to get to the shot site). Filled out a consent form, got the shot, waited 15 minutes for the all-clear, and away I went to get lost on the way home.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 373.98 points.
Tuesday: Down 96.95 points.
Wednesday: Up 16.02 points.
Thursday: Up 57.31 points.
Friday: Up 297.03 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 647.39 points or 2.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 420.08 points or 3.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 108.93 points or 2.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.0% down from the high of 33,810.87 on 04/09/2021.
     13.2% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     1.9% down from the high of 14,175.12 on 02/16/2021.
     12.1% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.0% down from the high of 4,129.48 on 04/09/2021.
     12.7% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,428  33,614  33,713  33,899  33,997 
Weekly  33,023  33,412  33,611  34,000  34,200 
Monthly  29,749  31,775  32,793  34,819  35,837 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,084  4,106  4,118  4,140  4,152 
Weekly  4,003  4,066  4,098  4,161  4,193 
Monthly  3,597  3,863  3,996  4,262  4,395 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,694  13,797  13,851  13,954  14,008 
Weekly  13,473  13,687  13,796  14,009  14,119 
Monthly  11,893  12,896  13,401  14,405  14,909 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 4 days.

Here's a symbol list of 144 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, AYX, AEO, AFG, AMWD, ABC, ANTM, ARW, ASH, BLL, BSET, BECN, BBBY, BMRN, BOOT, BRKS, BBW, COG, CPB, CLS, CENX, CHD, CLNE, CAG, CONN, CSOD, COST, CREE, CRH, CCK, CTS, DDS, DUK, BOOM, EMN, EBAY, EIX, EQT, XOM, FDS, FIVN, GE, GNW, GOOGL, GPRO, EVRG, GES, HLIT, HSC, HSII, HON, HOV, INFN, IBP, TILE, NVTA, JCOM, JBLU, JNJ, KFRC, KLIC, LAMR, LAWS, RAMP, LXU, MTSI, M, MTRX, MDCA, MGEE, MCO, MOS, MLI, NJR, NXGN, ASGN, PKE, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PGR, PRU, PHM, KWR, RMBS, RGS, ROG, SLB, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SMTC, SRDX, SNPS, TECH, TDOC, TPX, TOL, TZOO, TREX, WAT, WMB, XEL, IYC, FTEC, ICF, IYH, EWC, ECH, EWI, EWJ, EWL, TUR, PPA, DBA, PHO, SSO, XLY, XLP. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Retail (Special Lines)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.3. Retail (Special Lines)
4. Apparel4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Petroleum (Producing)5. Petroleum (Integrated)
6. Securities Brokerage6. Apparel
7. Computers and Peripherals7. Securities Brokerage
8. Petroleum (Integrated)8. Computers and Peripherals
9. Furn/Home Furnishings9. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
10. Electronics10. Electronics
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Natural Gas (Diversified)50. Computer Software and Svcs
51. Medical Supplies51. Biotechnology
52. Electric Utility (West)52. Medical Supplies
53. Food Processing53. Food Processing
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Healthcare Information55. Healthcare Information
56. Electric Utility (East)56. Electric Utility (East)
57. E-Commerce57. Household Products
58. Household Products58. E-Commerce
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/9/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here's a symbol list of 186 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, AJRD, ALRM, AEL, AMWD, ANTM, APOG, AAPL, ADM, ARW, ASH, BMI, BSET, BECN, BBY, BMRN, BKNG, BRC, BMY, BRKS, BBW, CBT, COG, CACI, CNP, CENX, CVX, CHS, CHD, CLNE, CNO, CAG, CONN, COP, CLR, CSOD, CREE, CRH, CCRN, CW, DECK, DVN, DTE, DUK, BOOM, EPAM, EQT, EL, XOM, FE, FIVN, IT, GE, GPRO, EVRG, GES, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HL, HSII, DHI, IEX, INCY, INFN, IIIN, TILE, IVC, NVTA, JCOM, JBLU, JNJ, KLIC, LAMR, LEN, RAMP, MHO, MTSI, MAN, MCHX, MTRX, MDC, MDCA, MRK, MGEE, MSFT, MCO, MLI, ^IXIC, CNR, NJR, NXGN, NVDA, OXY, ASGN, OUT, PANW, PKE, PRFT, PNW, PPL, PHM, KWR, RMBS, REV, ROG, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TECH, TDOC, TPX, RIG, TZOO, VEEV, VC, WRB, WU, WLK, XEL, IYE, ITB, IHI, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, BOTZ, ICF, IGV, SLV, EWK, ECH, EIS, EWM, EWW, EZA, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, QLD, DBA, QQQ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, MXI, XLE, GLD, XLK, XLU, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 2.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 8 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ABTTriangle, symmetrical      03/25/202104/08/2021Medical Supplies
ADTNPipe bottom      03/22/202103/29/2021Telecom. Equipment
AMDPipe bottom      03/22/202103/29/2021Semiconductor
AKAMRising wedge      02/25/202104/08/2021E-Commerce
AMEDRoof, inverted      03/15/202104/08/2021Medical Services
AMNTriangle, symmetrical      03/04/202104/08/2021Human Resources
APOGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/12/202104/05/2021Building Materials
ADPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/30/202104/05/2021IT Services
BMIScallop, descending      03/11/202104/06/2021Precision Instrument
BSETPipe bottom      03/22/202103/29/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
BRKSPipe bottom      03/22/202103/29/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
CHDCup with handle      01/27/202104/08/2021Household Products
EVHTriangle, symmetrical      02/26/202104/08/2021Healthcare Information
HLTriangle, symmetrical      02/04/202104/08/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
IDATriangle, symmetrical      03/16/202104/08/2021Electric Utility (West)
JBLUPipe bottom      03/22/202103/29/2021Air Transport
KLICPipe bottom      03/22/202103/29/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MGEETriangle, symmetrical      03/15/202104/08/2021Electric Utility (Central)
NJRRoof      02/19/202104/05/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
OLNTriangle, symmetrical      03/18/202104/08/2021Chemical (Basic)
ASGNPipe bottom      03/22/202103/29/2021Human Resources
PAYXCup with handle      12/23/202004/08/2021IT Services
PETSTriangle, descending      02/16/202104/08/2021Medical Services
TECHPipe bottom      03/22/202103/29/2021Biotechnology

 

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Thursday 4/8/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -9.54 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 610 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 340 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 270 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 212/374 or 56.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/121 or 47.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Two patterns appear on the chart. The first one in blue is a symmetrical triangle. It has at least 5 touches, total, of the two trendlines. This triangle has an upward breakout (which happens 60% of the time).

More recently, we see a descending triangle. I show that on the chart with two red lines except one of them turned blue. Could be from someone placing it's knee on it.

Again, it has at least 5 trendline touches. The top trendline slopes downward and the bottom one is horizontal. It might seem odd but a descending triangle actually breaks out upward more often than downward, but it's close: 53% breakout upward.

Having said that, I expect the indices to continue to retrace, so I'm looking for the Nasdaq to drop over the coming days.

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Here's a symbol list of 199 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACIW, ADTN, AMD, ATSG, ALB, AYX, AMWD, ANTM, AON, APOG, AAPL, ARCB, ASH, BMI, BSET, BECN, BZH, BIO, BIIB, BMRN, BKNG, BRC, BRKS, BLDR, BG, CBT, CACI, CALM, CE, CLS, CNP, CENX, CHD, CINF, CLNE, CNO, CTSH, CMTL, CAG, CONN, CSOD, COST, CREE, CCRN, CCK, CTS, DVN, DTE, EQT, RE, EVH, EZPW, FDS, FFG, FEYE, FIVN, FLEX, FLIR, FLS, IT, GPRO, GGG, GES, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HSII, HELE, HNI, DHI, HOV, HUBG, HURC, INCY, INFN, IIIN, ITGR, TILE, IPI, IVC, NVTA, JCOM, JBLU, KALU, KBAL, KMB, KLIC, LB, LAWS, LDOS, LEN, RAMP, MHO, MTSI, MCHX, MLM, MAS, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MDCA, MDT, MGEE, MLI, CNR, NFLX, NXGN, NOC, OXY, ASGN, OTEX, OMI, PKE, PRFT, PICO, PNW, PLXS, PPL, PEG, PHM, KWR, RMBS, REV, RLI, ROG, SEE, SMTC, SLGN, SWX, SSYS, SRDX, TECH, TDOC, TPX, TJX, TOL, RIG, TZOO, TG, VMI, VC, VMC, WLK, WMB, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, ITB, IDU, FTEC, FXL, ICF, IYH, EWZ, EWJ, EWW, EWY, THD, TUR, IBB, PBE, PHO, IXN, MXI, XLV, XRT, XLK, XLU, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,011.87    
 Weekly S2  12,801.65  789.78   
 Monthly S1  12,850.36  48.70   
 Monthly Pivot  13,235.53  385.18   
 Weekly S1  13,245.25  9.71   
 Weekly Pivot  13,366.16  120.92   
 Daily S2  13,612.38  246.22   
 Daily S1  13,650.61  38.23   
 Low  13,653.59  2.98   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  13,675.30  21.71   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,683.94  8.64   
 Close  13,688.84  4.90   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  13,691.82  2.98   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,693.31  1.49   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,702.68  9.37   
 Daily R1  13,730.05  27.37   
 High  13,733.03  2.98   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  13,771.26  38.23   
 Weekly R1  13,809.76  38.50   
 Weekly R2  13,930.67  120.92   
 Monthly R1  14,074.02  143.34   
 Monthly R2  14,459.19  385.18   

Wednesday 4/7/21. Indicators Still Bullish But

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The green bar on the far right of the chart means the indicator is still bullish. It's been bullish for about two weeks now.

What hints can we see about a trend change?

Price is rising fast, probably too fast to be sustainable. So look for a retrace. You can see the inverted and ascending scallop pattern from the March green bar to the recent green bar (between those two locations, in price, not the CPI). Price rises and then retraces.

So that's what I see coming. The CPI line at the bottom of the chart doesn't show weakness, but therein lies the weakness. The indicator is at 98 now, so there's more downside than upside. To put it another way, the indicator is going to drop soon, taking the index along with it.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 10% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 16%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 83% on 04/07/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 469 stocks in my database are down an average of 9% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 11%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 38% on 04/07/2020.

Both the red and blue lines show improvement this week compared to a week ago. There's still divergence between the red/blue lines and price. By that, I mean the last two peaks are flat to down in the colored lines, but the index shows a higher peak.

Both charts this week show strength but the subtext says the index is going to retrace, probably for a week. And I think it's going to start soon.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 145 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACIW, ADTN, AMD, AES, ALK, ALB, AA, ALL, AYX, AEO, AMWD, ANTM, APOG, ATR, ARCB, ADP, BMI, BSET, BECN, BZH, BMRN, BRC, BMY, BRKS, CHD, CLNE, CNO, CONN, CSOD, COTY, CREE, CTS, CMI, CW, DVN, WIRE, EVH, FDS, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FDP, GPRO, GGG, GFF, GES, HLIT, HSC, HE, HAYN, HL, HSII, HNI, HUBG, INFN, TILE, IPI, IVC, NVTA, JCOM, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KLIC, RAMP, MTSI, MTRN, MTRX, MDCA, MDT, MGEE, MLI, NCR, NFLX, NTGR, NXGN, NVDA, OMC, ASGN, PANW, PKE, PAYX, PRFT, PLXS, PFG, PGR, PHM, KWR, RMBS, REV, RNG, RHI, ROG, RES, SMTC, SCS, SSYS, SRDX, TECH, TDOC, TPX, TOL, RIG, TZOO, TREX, VC, WSO, WEX, WSM, ZBRA, IYK, SLV, EIS, EWW, TUR, IBB, PBE, PXJ, ILF, GLD, XLV, XLI, XRT, UNG, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/6/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 1.1% or 373.98 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 372 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 215 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 157 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 223/389 or 57.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring WPS Resources: WPS (actual trade)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 187 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, APD, AA, AMGN, APH, APOG, AWI, ARW, ATO, AXS, BLL, BZH, BRKS, BG, COG, CALM, CNP, CENX, CF, CHD, CIEN, CLNE, CNO, CONN, CLR, GLW, CR, CRH, XRAY, DFS, ^DJU, ^DJT, ^DJI, EOG, EFX, EVH, EXPD, EZPW, FAST, FMC, FORM, FTNT, FCX, FDP, GE, GNW, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, HE, HTLD, HSII, HD, HOV, JBHT, IEX, INOV, JCOM, JBLU, KALU, KLAC, KLIC, LZB, LAWS, LDOS, MCHX, MAS, MGEE, MLHR, ^IXIC, NCR, NWL, NEE, NVDA, OXY, OTEX, PKG, PCG, PLXS, KWR, RJF, RNG, RLI, RES, ^GSPC, SCHW, SAIC, SIGI, SCCO, TGT, TPX, TXN, TXT, TZOO, VFC, V, WRB, WAT, WSO, WLK, WMB, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IDU, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IYZ, SOXX, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWY, EWP, EWD, TUR, EWU, QLD, PPA, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLF, XHB, XLI, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,733.10    
 Monthly S1  31,630.15  1,897.04   
 Monthly Pivot  32,444.57  814.43   
 Weekly S2  32,876.57  432.00   
 Daily S2  33,060.27  183.70   
 Weekly S1  33,201.88  141.61   
 Low  33,222.38  20.50   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Open  33,222.38  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  33,230.44  8.06   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Daily S1  33,293.73  63.29   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,373.49  79.76   
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,420.16  46.68   
 Daily Pivot  33,455.84  35.68   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,466.84  11.00   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  33,527.19  60.35   
 Weekly R1  33,555.75  28.56   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Close.
 Weekly R2  33,584.31  28.56   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 High  33,617.95  33.64   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R2.
 Daily R1  33,689.30  71.35   
 Daily R2  33,851.41  162.11   
 Monthly R1  34,341.62  490.21   
 Monthly R2  35,156.04  814.43   

Monday 4/5/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

Two chart patterns come to mind. The red one is a descending scallop (A).

The second one is a V-bottom with an extension, also called an extended V-bottom. I show that at B.

The V-turn is obvious but the extension, which is a slight retrace of the upward move, isn't that pronounced in this example. The utilities continue higher, regardless.

The extended V-bottom is a mid-list performer, ranking 24 out of 39 patterns with upward breakouts in bull markets. It fails about 10% of the time but has an average rise of 40%. That means if you trade it perfectly and often enough, you'll have your clock cleaned 10% of the time but you can make 40%.

Again, that's if you trade it perfectly (in stocks). However, it does highlight that price often continues to rise after an upward breakout. We see a part of that rise already, when price climbed away from the extension.

I expect the utilities to return to the extension before moving too much higher. In technical terms, the move from the bottom of the V looks like a measured move up pattern. After that pattern completes, price often retraces to the corrective phase (which is the extension in this figure).

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a thermometer.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 98.49 points.
Tuesday: Down 104.41 points.
Wednesday: Down 85.41 points.
Thursday: Up 171.66 points.
Friday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 80.33 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 341.38 points or 2.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 45.33 points or 1.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.3% down from the high of 33,259.00 on 03/29/2021.
     11.0% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     4.9% down from the high of 14,175.12 on 02/16/2021.
     8.7% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.0% down from the high of 4,020.63 on 04/01/2021.
     9.8% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,920  33,037  33,102  33,218  33,284 
Weekly  32,752  32,953  33,106  33,306  33,460 
Monthly  29,608  31,381  32,320  34,092  35,031 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,983  4,002  4,011  4,029  4,039 
Weekly  3,917  3,969  3,995  4,046  4,072 
Monthly  3,624  3,822  3,921  4,119  4,219 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,374  13,427  13,457  13,510  13,540 
Weekly  12,732  13,106  13,297  13,671  13,861 
Monthly  11,942  12,711  13,166  13,935  14,390 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 11 days.

Here's a symbol list of 11 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: COG, CENX, EMR, EOG, GE, GPRO, MCHX, SMTC, TPX, VFC, WMB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Retail (Special Lines)
3. Retail (Special Lines)3. Petroleum (Producing)
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Apparel
5. Petroleum (Integrated)5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
6. Apparel6. Securities Brokerage
7. Securities Brokerage7. Petroleum (Integrated)
8. Computers and Peripherals8. Computers and Peripherals
9. Trucking/Transp. Leasing9. Electronics
10. Electronics10. Advertising
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Computer Software and Svcs50. Computer Software and Svcs
51. Biotechnology51. Medical Supplies
52. Medical Supplies52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Food Processing53. Food Processing
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Healthcare Information55. Healthcare Information
56. Electric Utility (East)56. Electric Utility (East)
57. Household Products57. E-Commerce
58. E-Commerce58. Household Products
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Thursday 9/28/19. New Book, Feeding ThePatternSite.

The above book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd edition is due to arrive on Amazon's shelves later this month.

I negotiated with the publisher to keep the list price the same as the old book, but I don't know how long that will last. When the second edition came out, the list was at $100 but sells for $120 now. So the publisher does raise the price. It has a retail price of just over $100 now.

From Amazon:

"This broadened and revised Third Edition offers investors the most comprehensive, up-to-date guide to this popular method of market analysis. Written by a leading expert on chart patterns, Tom Bulkowski, this edition includes revised statistics on 75 chart patterns including 23 new ones, with pictures and performance statistics, packaged within easy-to-read text.

The Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Third Edition further solidifies the reputation of this book as the leading reference on chart patterns, setting it far above the competition."

You can order the book at Amazon.com today and they'll ship it out when the book is published. If you order now, it'll boost the sale rank (from Amazon.com): "Best Sellers Rank: #56,139 in Books." When the second edition was released, it scored #5 in Australia. I'd like to match or beat that, so order your copy today.

$ $ $

Good Friday is a trading holiday in the US, so no regular blog post.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site.

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Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 157 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, AJRD, AYX, AEO, APH, AMAT, ACGL, AWI, ADSK, AVY, AXS, BLL, BZH, BA, BOOT, BRKS, COG, CDNS, CLS, CENX, CHD, CNO, CAG, CSOD, CREE, CSGS, CMI, EMR, EOG, EVH, XOM, FB, FIS, FISV, FLIR, FORM, GD, GE, GILD, GOOGL, GPRO, GES, HBI, HIG, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, ITGR, IBKR, IPG, INTU, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, JCOM, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, LANC, LLY, LNC, LMT, LXU, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MDCA, MGEE, MOS, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NKE, NVDA, OGE, OMI, OXM, PKE, PAYX, PFG, PRU, RL, RMBS, RGA, RNG, RES, SAIA, SAIC, SMTC, SHW, SWN, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TPX, TER, TXT, VFC, VEEV, VRTX, VMC, WRB, WEX, WMB, XLNX, IYK, IHE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IHF, IGV, SOXX, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, QLD, PPA, PBE, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLF, SPY, XLK, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

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Thursday 4/1/21. 2021 Market Forecast Update

The index climbed by 1.5% or 201.48 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 116 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 68 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 48 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 211/373 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/121 or 47.9% of the time.

Here's the updated 2021 forecast for April, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 31 March 2021 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

9. Energy (+30.5%)
7. Financials (+16.4%)
6. Industrials (+11.4%)
3. Materials (+9.1%)
10. Real estate (+8.9%)
4. Communication services (+7.4%)
5. Health care (+2.6%)
2. Consumer discretionary (+2.1%)
11. Utilities (+1.3%)
8. Consumer staples (+0.9%)
1. Information technology (+0.2%)

Notice that the sectors which performed well a month ago are at or near the bottom of the list. Those near last month's bottom, are riding high.

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

(new) Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels (+30.7%)
(new) Airlines (+30.4.%)
(new) Real estate management and development (+26.1%)
(new) Household durables (+23.1%)
(new) Banks (+22.7%)
(new) Consumer finance (+18.2%)
2. Metals and mining (+18.1%)
(new) Machinery (+17.5%)
(new) Building products (+16.2%)
(new) Construction materials (+15.9%)

All but one of the industries are new to the list this month. Energy (Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels) tops the list with an average gain over 30%.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 111 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AYI, ADS, DOX, AMWD, APOG, AMAT, AWI, ADSK, BLDR, COG, CE, CENX, CHS, CHD, CLF, CGNX, CAG, CONN, CSOD, CMI, XRAY, EBAY, EMR, EOG, EXC, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FLEX, FLIR, FLS, IT, GE, GPRO, HSC, HSIC, IEX, IIIN, ITGR, IPI, NVTA, JCOM, K, KMB, KLAC, LRCX, LANC, LXU, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MAS, MDT, MGEE, CNR, NTAP, NEU, NI, NOC, OXY, OMC, PNW, PEG, KWR, SAIA, SEE, SMTC, STMP, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TGT, TPX, TER, TXT, TKR, RIG, TZOO, UPS, VFC, VMC, WU, WMB, IYK, IHI, FXL, IYZ, SOXX, IGE, EWI, EWM, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWP, PHO, ROBO, IXN, XLK, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,773.65    
 Weekly S2  12,494.28  720.63   
 Monthly S1  12,510.26  15.98   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  12,870.57  360.31   
 Daily S2  13,023.10  152.53   
 Low  13,118.38  95.28   
 Open  13,122.57  4.19   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  13,133.66  11.09   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Daily S1  13,134.99  1.33   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  13,163.11  28.12   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,197.51  34.41   
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,221.96  24.45   
 Daily Pivot  13,230.26  8.30   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,246.41  16.14   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  13,246.87  0.46   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  13,325.54  78.67   
 Daily R1  13,342.15  16.61   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  13,437.42  95.28   
 Weekly R1  13,539.40  101.98   
 Weekly R2  13,831.94  292.53   
 Monthly R1  13,870.27  38.33   
 Monthly R2  14,493.67  623.40   

 

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