Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 04/19/2019
  Industrials: 26,560 +110.00 +0.4%  
  Transports: 10,988 +52.62 +0.5%  
  Utilities: 772 +1.55 +0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 7,998 +1.98 +0.0%  
  S&P 500: 2,905 +4.58 +0.2%  
YTD
 +13.9%  
 +19.8%  
 +8.3%  
 +20.5%  
 +15.9%  
  Tom's Targets    Overview: 04/12/2019  
  Up arrow26,900 or 25,500 by 05/01/2019
  Up arrow11,200 or 10,500 by 05/01/2019
  Up arrow825 or 755 by 05/01/2019
  Up arrow8,100 or 7,700 by 05/01/2019
  Up arrow2,975 or 2,800 by 05/01/2019
As of 04/19/2019
  Industrials: 26,560 +110.00 +0.4%  
  Transports: 10,988 +52.62 +0.5%  
  Utilities: 772 +1.55 +0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 7,998 +1.98 +0.0%  
  S&P 500: 2,905 +4.58 +0.2%  
YTD
 +13.9%  
 +19.8%  
 +8.3%  
 +20.5%  
 +15.9%  
  Tom's Targets    Overview: 04/12/2019  
  Up arrow26,900 or 25,500 by 05/01/2019
  Up arrow11,200 or 10,500 by 05/01/2019
  Up arrow825 or 755 by 05/01/2019
  Up arrow8,100 or 7,700 by 05/01/2019
  Up arrow2,975 or 2,800 by 05/01/2019

 

April 2019 Headlines

Archives


Monday 4/22/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show a pic of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

I drew the bendy line along the tops just to see what it looked like. Now I know.

Notice how the line curves steeply at the start but then straightens out and rises at (depending on your aspect ratio) about 35 degrees (it appears less than 45 degrees on my screen).

Shallow sloped trendlines tend to last longer than do more vertical ones.

I drew the bottom red trendline under price starting from the right to the left. I thought I'd stop at the third touch, but kept going and brought it down to a minor low in January.

The two lines, taken together, are wider at the start and narrow. That's a chart pattern called a rising wedge.

Because the wedge rises and narrows, the breakout is often downward. So that's what I expect in the coming week, a downward move from the index.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 27.53 points.
Tuesday: Up 67.89 points.
Wednesday: Down 3.12 points.
Thursday: Up 110 points.
Friday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 147.24 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 13.9 points or 0.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 2.38 points or 0.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.2% down from the high of 26,602.42 on 04/18/2019.
     17.3% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.7% down from the high of 8,052.40 on 04/17/2019.
     23.9% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.4% down from the high of 2,918.00 on 04/17/2019.
     18.9% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/19/2019, the CPI had:

0 bearish patterns,
0 bullish patterns,
0 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 0.0%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  26,378  26,469  26,535  26,626  26,693 
Weekly  26,207  26,383  26,493  26,669  26,779 
Monthly  24,948  25,754  26,178  26,984  27,408 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,885  2,895  2,902  2,912  2,918 
Weekly  2,879  2,892  2,905  2,918  2,931 
Monthly  2,732  2,819  2,868  2,955  3,004 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,932  7,965  7,984  8,017  8,035 
Weekly  7,876  7,937  7,995  8,056  8,114 
Monthly  7,403  7,701  7,877  8,174  8,350 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 48.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 4 months up 25.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 25.5%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 31.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 4 weeks up 21.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 4 months up 21.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
21Pipe bottom
20Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
10Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
7Triangle, symmetrical
7Triple bottom
6Three Rising Valleys
6Double Bottom, Eve and Eve
6Rising wedge
6Double Top, Eve and Eve
5Head-and-shoulders bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Cement and Aggregates2. Precision Instrument
3. Precision Instrument3. Shoe
4. Computer Software and Svcs4. Electric Utility (East)
5. Metal Fabricating5. Computer Software and Svcs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Thursday 4/18/19. Nasdaq Channel Study

The index dropped by -0.1% or -4.15 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 589 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 327 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 262 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 161/295 or 54.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 50/100 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Oddly, I started by drawing the red channel, so let's take the picture in the reverse order, from right to left.

The red channel at A slopes downward but the index has closed near the top of the channel. That's bullish if it pierces the channel moving upward but it could also mean the index will bounce off the top trendline and head lower.

The brown channel at B was about horizontal and you can see how price punctured the bottom of the channel and dropped just before today's open. Today's open shot the index upward (C), making for a nice upward move but the index couldn't hold onto it.

The green channel is the most significant of the three because it's the longest. If you extend the green lines, the other two channels would remain inside this one (if you ignore C). So that suggests how price will move on Thursday. With C showing the way upward, perhaps we'll see the index pushing above the top red channel line and racing to the top of the channel.

That sounds too optimistic to me. If price can't move higher by much, it'll tumble. So maybe we're in for a tumble after all.

Downward breakout. Check. Upward breakout. Check. I think I've covered all the bases. Smiley

$ $ $

I updated statistics on

ascending triangles.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,114.53    
 Monthly S1  7,555.30  440.78   
 Monthly Pivot  7,773.70  218.39   
 Weekly S2  7,859.77  86.07   
 Weekly S1  7,927.92  68.16   
 Daily S2  7,928.27  0.34   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Weekly Pivot  7,960.01  31.74   
 Daily S1  7,962.17  2.17   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  7,973.38  11.21   
 Close  7,996.08  22.70   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,003.57  7.49   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  8,007.29  3.72   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,012.89  5.60   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,022.21  9.32   
 Weekly R1  8,028.16  5.95   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  8,041.19  13.03   
 Open  8,044.97  3.78   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  8,052.40  7.43   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R2  8,060.25  7.85   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  8,086.31  26.06   
 Monthly R1  8,214.47  128.17   
 Monthly R2  8,432.87  218.39   

Wednesday 4/17/19. CPI Bearish Divergence

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I drew two tan lines at A and B. Those are important. Do you know why?

The lines show bearish divergence. The index is climbing following a straight line higher (A). However, the CPI (the thin blue line at B) is showing a rounded top with the line trending lower.

I like to say that the index will eventually follow the CPI lower, but a glance at the chart says that's often not the case. Still, it's a warning sign. If the CPI stays low, it could mean the market is about to retrace.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 36% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 39%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 490 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines show improvement over the same day last week. So this chart is bullish and the prior chart is bearish.

Which one is correct?

I'd like to say the CPI chart is correct but if the market were to zip higher by xxx (triple digit) points, the bearish divergence wouldn't be as pronounced. So it might be bullish after all. But I'll let you decide. It's your money, after all.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/16/19. Another Broadening Top Quiz

The index dropped by -0.1% or -27.53 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1327 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 688 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 639 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 182/304 or 59.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 37/72 or 51.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I posted a new quiz for Tuesday. It's on a right-angled and ascending broadening formation. Click to take the link. It'll test how well you can spot the pattern and how well you can trade it. That's the theory, anyway.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,747.21    
 Monthly S1  25,565.99  818.78   
 Weekly S2  25,920.59  354.60   
 Monthly Pivot  26,026.78  106.19   
 Weekly S1  26,152.68  125.90   
 Daily S2  26,266.92  114.24   
 Weekly Pivot  26,294.68  27.76   
 Low  26,316.42  21.74   
 Daily S1  26,325.84  9.42   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,357.84  32.00   
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,370.63  12.79   
 Daily Pivot  26,375.35  4.71   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,383.43  8.08   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  26,384.77  1.34   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  26,407.76  22.99   
 High  26,424.85  17.09   
 Daily R1  26,434.27  9.42   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  26,483.78  49.50   
 Weekly R1  26,526.77  42.99   
 Weekly R2  26,668.77  142.00   
 Monthly R1  26,845.56  176.79   
 Monthly R2  27,306.35  460.79   

Monday 4/15/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

At AB, the index makes a double bottom. If you look back at last Monday's post, you'll see a similar chart in the Dow transports.

This double bottom breaks out upward but soon throws back to C.

If we zoom out and include the V turn (V-bottom), it makes more sense. The V-bottom is the V-shape hitting bottom in December 2018. The AB double bottom is the extension and C is part of the move up after the extension.

The extension isn't like the flag type depiction which appears in the extended V-bottom chart, but this is a different drawing of the same thing, namely a consolidation region after the V bottom. The price should lift off going forward.

So I'm looking for the index to move higher this week.


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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 83.97 points.
Tuesday: Down 190.44 points.
Wednesday: Up 6.58 points.
Thursday: Down 14.11 points.
Friday: Up 269.25 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 12.69 points or 0.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 45.47 points or 0.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 14.67 points or 0.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.3% down from the high of 26,487.57 on 04/05/2019.
     16.7% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.1% down from the high of 7,992.09 on 04/12/2019.
     23.6% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 2,910.54 on 04/12/2019.
     19.0% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/12/2019, the CPI had:

9 bearish patterns,
76 bullish patterns,
313 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 89.4%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  26,259  26,336  26,386  26,463  26,513 
Weekly  25,930  26,171  26,304  26,545  26,678 
Monthly  24,756  25,584  26,036  26,864  27,316 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,893  2,900  2,905  2,913  2,918 
Weekly  2,860  2,884  2,897  2,921  2,934 
Monthly  2,658  2,783  2,847  2,971  3,035 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,937  7,960  7,976  8,000  8,016 
Weekly  7,856  7,920  7,956  8,020  8,056 
Monthly  7,111  7,547  7,770  8,207  8,429 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 26.8%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 25.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks up 27.4%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 31.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks up 30.0%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 21.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 1 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
25Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
22Pipe bottom
10Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
9Head-and-shoulders top
8Double Top, Eve and Eve
7Triangle, symmetrical
7Triple bottom
7Three Rising Valleys
6Double Bottom, Eve and Eve
5Rising wedge

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Precision Instrument2. Precision Instrument
3. Shoe3. Shoe
4. Electric Utility (East)4. Electric Utility (East)
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Computer Software and Svcs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/12/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 9 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 592 stocks searched, or 1.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AIGRising wedge      02/13/201904/10/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BECNPipe bottom      03/25/201904/01/2019Retail Building Supply
CLRising wedge      12/13/201804/11/2019Household Products
COPTriangle, descending      02/11/201904/11/2019Petroleum (Integrated)
BOOMFlag, high and tight      02/15/201904/11/2019Metal Fabricating
GDTriangle, symmetrical      02/19/201904/11/2019Aerospace/Defense
NVTAPipe bottom      03/25/201904/01/2019Medical Services
JBLUHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/11/201904/09/2019Air Transport
KBALTriple bottom      03/25/201904/09/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
^GSPCRising wedge      02/25/201904/05/2019None
SWNTriangle, ascending      03/04/201904/05/2019Natural Gas (Diversified)
TZOOPipe bottom      03/25/201904/01/2019Internet

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/04/2019 and 04/11/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
American International Group (AIG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 485 out of 587
4/11/19 close: $45.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $47.41 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.99%
Volume: 4,330,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,185,998 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/13/2019 to 04/10/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 200 out of 587
4/11/19 close: $36.01
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.95 or 8.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.52%
Volume: 533,200 shares. 3 month avg: 811,195 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/25/2019 to 04/01/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 219 out of 587
4/11/19 close: $68.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $70.07 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.40%
Volume: 2,508,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,441,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 12/13/2018 to 04/11/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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ConocoPhillips (COP)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 479 out of 587
4/11/19 close: $66.37
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $70.34 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.45%
Volume: 9,486,900 shares. 3 month avg: 6,156,062 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/11/2019 to 04/11/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 4 out of 587
4/11/19 close: $66.71
1 Month avg volatility: $2.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.99 or 10.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 89.95%
Volume: 235,300 shares. 3 month avg: 60,208 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/15/2019 to 04/11/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 488 out of 587
4/11/19 close: $171.43
1 Month avg volatility: $2.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $163.14 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.05%
Volume: 1,212,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,076,035 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/19/2019 to 04/11/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Invitae Corp (NVTA)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 2 out of 587
4/11/19 close: $26.12
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.83 or 12.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 136.17%
Volume: 1,444,800 shares. 3 month avg: 321,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/25/2019 to 04/01/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 334 out of 587
4/11/19 close: $17.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.24 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.72%
Volume: 7,532,400 shares. 3 month avg: 6,141,268 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 03/11/2019 to 04/09/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Kimball International, Inc. (KBAL)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 440 out of 587
4/11/19 close: $14.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.75 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.82%
Volume: 55,700 shares. 3 month avg: 102,372 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 03/25/2019 to 04/09/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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S and P 500 (^GSPC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/11/19 close: $2,888.32
1 Month avg volatility: $21.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2,936.56 or 1.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.22%
Volume: 1,625,618,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,197,098,535 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/25/2019 to 04/05/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 495 out of 587
4/11/19 close: $4.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.07 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.09%
Volume: 24,887,300 shares. 3 month avg: 16,683,949 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/04/2019 to 04/05/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 54 out of 587
4/11/19 close: $14.64
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.04 or 10.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 48.93%
Volume: 48,400 shares. 3 month avg: 22,411 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/25/2019 to 04/01/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/24/2018. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/24/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 4/11/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.7% or 54.96 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 416 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 255 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 161 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 61.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 161/294 or 54.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 50/100 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Not a lot is going on in the picture. The index has been moving sideways for four days now, but you'll notice that it's hugged the top of the pattern.

So what kind of a pattern is it?

The name is a mouthful: broadening formation, right-angled and ascending. Those have a flat bottom (horizontal one, really) and the peaks trend upward, like that shown by the red line.

Updated statistics says it breaks out upward 54% of the time. That's about random. But since the futures are slightly positive this morning (barely), I'm going to vote for a higher close. That might be a struggle, though. One can say that when price struggles to go higher, it'll drop. That's the basis of the 2B pattern.

$ $ $

I updated performance statistics on the three falling peaks chart pattern.

I won't be making any changes to Wednesday's post. I'll show both charts. Thanks to all who responded.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,138.34    
 Monthly S1  7,551.29  412.95   
 Weekly S2  7,730.57  179.28   
 Monthly Pivot  7,745.87  15.30   
 Weekly S1  7,847.40  101.53   
 Weekly Pivot  7,893.93  46.52   
 Daily S2  7,900.39  6.47   
 Low  7,916.90  16.51   
 Open  7,922.73  5.83   
 Daily S1  7,932.32  9.59   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,935.40  3.08   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,941.12  5.71   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,946.83  5.71   
 Daily Pivot  7,948.82  1.99   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  7,964.24  15.42   
 High  7,965.33  1.09   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  7,980.75  15.42   
 Daily R2  7,997.25  16.51   
 Weekly R1  8,010.76  13.51   
 Weekly R2  8,057.29  46.52   
 Monthly R1  8,158.82  101.53   
 Monthly R2  8,353.40  194.58   

Wednesday 4/10/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The only exciting thing about this chart is the thin blue line at the bottom of it.

It's taken a nose dive. And that suggests a retrace will happen. That's not guaranteed because a strong move up can make the line shoot higher.

Let's check what the next chart says.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 39% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 41%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 491 stocks in my database are down an average of 18% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 34% on 12/24/2018.

Only the red line made progress from a snapshot taken a week ago.

Even though the red line has taken a dip in the last day or two, it's still higher than the 41% of stocks in my database suffering. By that, I mean the line shows 39% are in bear market territory, down from 41%.

That's good news, but probably not worth getting excited about. These two lines hug the up and down motions of the index. And that means maybe it's time to discontinue following them. Are any of you wanting me to continue this chart? Send me an email before I modify my software to eliminate it.

The two charts, taken together, are bearish in my view.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/9/19. Broadening Top Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.3% or -83.97 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1045 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 492 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 553 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 182/304 or 59.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 36/71 or 50.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

Here's the latest quiz on broadening tops. Click the link to take you to it. (We did broadening bottoms last week).

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,732.63    
 Monthly S1  25,536.82  804.20   
 Weekly S2  25,884.21  347.39   
 Monthly Pivot  26,012.20  127.98   
 Weekly S1  26,112.62  100.42   
 Daily S2  26,211.95  99.33   
 Low  26,246.03  34.08   
 Daily S1  26,276.48  30.46   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,283.70  7.22   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,295.34  11.64   
 Weekly Pivot  26,300.09  4.75   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,306.98  6.88   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  26,310.57  3.59   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  26,312.67  2.10   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  26,341.02  28.35   
 High  26,344.65  3.63   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  26,375.10  30.45   
 Daily R2  26,409.19  34.08   
 Weekly R1  26,528.50  119.31   
 Weekly R2  26,715.97  187.48   
 Monthly R1  26,816.39  100.42   
 Monthly R2  27,291.77  475.38   

Monday 4/8/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This chart I find interesting. There's a big head-and-shoulders bottom showing on the chart. The left shoulder is LS, head, and RS for the right shoulder. The red neckline ties it all together when the index closes above that line.

Yes, the right shoulder is weird because it's made of two bottoms. That's rare and it suggests a botch in identification.

I suppose you can call this pattern a complex head-and-shoulders bottom with the two left shoulders as LS and the minor low in late November (B). Certainly, it's not a good mirror of what occurs on the right side.

Let's put all of that aside. What does the pattern mean?

The chart pattern suggests a rising trend is here. Of course, it's been here since the right shoulder low.

Inside the head-and-shoulders is a Big W.

That pattern begins before A with the minor high in February, and it forms the first bottom at A. A second bottom appears at RS, and completes the pattern as price rises to mirror the February minor high. That rise forms a tall right side, mirroring the left side. And that forms a big W.

Way cool, huh?

Or is rad the word of choice now?

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 329.74 points.
Tuesday: Down 79.29 points.
Wednesday: Up 39 points.
Thursday: Up 166.5 points.
Friday: Up 40.36 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 496.31 points or 1.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 209.37 points or 2.7%.
The S&P 500 index was up 58.34 points or 2.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.2% down from the high of 26,487.57 on 04/05/2019.
     16.7% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.0% down from the high of 7,940.45 on 04/05/2019.
     22.9% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.0% down from the high of 2,893.24 on 04/05/2019.
     18.4% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/05/2019, the CPI had:

3 bearish patterns,
67 bullish patterns,
328 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 95.7%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  26,311  26,368  26,428  26,485  26,545 
Weekly  25,912  26,169  26,328  26,584  26,744 
Monthly  24,761  25,593  26,040  26,872  27,320 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,879  2,886  2,890  2,896  2,900 
Weekly  2,834  2,863  2,878  2,908  2,923 
Monthly  2,665  2,779  2,836  2,950  3,007 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,898  7,918  7,929  7,950  7,961 
Weekly  7,722  7,830  7,885  7,994  8,049 
Monthly  7,130  7,534  7,737  8,142  8,345 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 35.1%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 25.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 35.8%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 31.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 35.1%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 21.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 8 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
25Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
14Pipe bottom
10Head-and-shoulders top
9Triangle, symmetrical
7Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
7Double Top, Eve and Eve
6Triple top
5Double Top, Adam and Adam
5Double Bottom, Eve and Eve
4Triple bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Precision Instrument
2. Precision Instrument2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Shoe3. Electric Utility (East)
4. Electric Utility (East)4. Electric Utility (Central)
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Computer Software and Svcs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/5/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 11 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 593 stocks searched, or 1.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 6 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AFLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/19/201904/01/2019Insurance (Diversified)
CNOPipe bottom      03/18/201903/25/2019Insurance (Diversified)
CLGXPipe bottom      03/18/201903/25/2019Information Services
FTNTTriangle, symmetrical      02/25/201904/04/2019Computer Software and Svcs
GDTriangle, symmetrical      02/19/201904/04/2019Aerospace/Defense
HELEDouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/18/201904/01/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
JNJDouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/12/201904/01/2019Medical Supplies
KMTPipe bottom      03/18/201903/25/2019Metal Fabricating
LAWSRectangle bottom      11/06/201804/04/2019Metal Fabricating
LLYDouble Top, Eve and Adam      03/26/201904/01/2019Drug
NETriangle, ascending      03/04/201904/04/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PINCTriangle, symmetrical      03/20/201904/04/2019Healthcare Information
RJFPipe bottom      03/18/201903/25/2019Securities Brokerage
SKXPipe bottom      03/18/201903/25/2019Shoe
SCSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/25/201903/29/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
TPRPipe bottom      03/18/201903/25/2019Apparel
VMCRising wedge      12/07/201804/04/2019Cement and Aggregates

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/28/2019 and 04/04/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
AFLAC Inc (AFL)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 187 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $48.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $50.21 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.07%
Volume: 2,525,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,541,537 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/19/2019 to 04/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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CNO Financial Group, Inc (CNO)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 508 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $16.62
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.84 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.69%
Volume: 874,300 shares. 3 month avg: 898,068 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/18/2019 to 03/25/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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CoreLogic Inc (CLGX)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 495 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $38.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.89 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.90%
Volume: 390,900 shares. 3 month avg: 487,489 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/18/2019 to 03/25/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Fortinet Inc (FTNT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 400 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $83.50
1 Month avg volatility: $2.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.18 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.56%
Volume: 3,051,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,532,971 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/25/2019 to 04/04/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 479 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $169.17
1 Month avg volatility: $2.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $162.44 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.61%
Volume: 1,062,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,076,035 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/19/2019 to 04/04/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 422 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $112.38
1 Month avg volatility: $2.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $117.91 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.33%
Volume: 177,700 shares. 3 month avg: 160,343 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 03/18/2019 to 04/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 295 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $135.57
1 Month avg volatility: $1.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $139.98 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.05%
Volume: 5,844,600 shares. 3 month avg: 5,464,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 03/12/2019 to 04/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Kennametal (KMT)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 416 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $39.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.96 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.96%
Volume: 486,800 shares. 3 month avg: 854,403 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/18/2019 to 03/25/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 360 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $31.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.71 or 7.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.95%
Volume: 3,900 shares. 3 month avg: 11,408 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 11/06/2018 to 04/04/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Lilly, Eli and Co. (LLY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 64 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $125.61
1 Month avg volatility: $2.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $132.04 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.55%
Volume: 5,539,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,358,597 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 03/26/2019 to 04/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Noble Corporation (NE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 581 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $3.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.54 or 15.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.89%
Volume: 7,832,500 shares. 3 month avg: 7,535,162 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/04/2019 to 04/04/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Premier Inc (PINC)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 523 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $34.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.37 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.79%
Volume: 621,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/20/2019 to 04/04/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 412 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $84.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $80.87 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.45%
Volume: 597,800 shares. 3 month avg: 692,654 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/18/2019 to 03/25/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Skechers USA Inc (SKX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 15 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $34.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.03 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 52.69%
Volume: 1,469,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,234,920 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/18/2019 to 03/25/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Steelcase (SCS)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 457 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $15.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.26 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.18%
Volume: 503,100 shares. 3 month avg: 708,518 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/25/2019 to 03/29/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Tapestry Inc (TPR)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 550 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $34.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.36 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.07%
Volume: 2,276,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,145,718 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/18/2019 to 03/25/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 163 out of 587
4/4/19 close: $119.65
1 Month avg volatility: $2.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $125.62 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.10%
Volume: 814,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,153,271 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 12/07/2018 to 04/04/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Thursday 4/4/19. Intraday Nasdaq: Triple Bottom and Reverse BARR

The index climbed by 0.6% or 46.86 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 488 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 303 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 185 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 161/293 or 54.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 50/100 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Let's take the easy pattern first, the left one.

It's a triple bottom with bottoms cleverly labeled 1, 2, and 3. The horizontal red line begins with the highest peak between the three bottoms. It's the confirmation line. When price closes above this line, it confirms the pattern as a valid one and the stock also stages an upward breakout.

Look at the pattern in the upper right of the chart, AB.

Turn A looks like a rounded top. It is. The flat part at B, if you ignore the small downward nib, reminds me of a bump-and-run reversal top, only the pattern is backward. The lead-in phase is B and the bump-and-run is A.

It reminds me that periods of high volatility follow periods of low volatility, and the reverse. That's what Bollinger bands are based on.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,175.67    
 Monthly S1  7,535.61  359.94   
 Weekly S2  7,578.79  43.18   
 Monthly Pivot  7,692.86  114.07   
 Weekly S1  7,737.17  44.31   
 Weekly Pivot  7,737.67  0.50   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S2  7,834.21  96.54   
 Daily S1  7,864.88  30.67   
 Low  7,870.90  6.02   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  7,891.18  20.28   
 Close  7,895.55  4.37   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  7,896.05  0.50   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Close.
 Weekly R2  7,896.55  0.50   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,896.63  0.08   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly R2.
 Daily Pivot  7,901.57  4.94   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,904.58  3.01   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,912.53  7.95   
 Daily R1  7,932.24  19.71   
 High  7,938.26  6.02   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  7,968.93  30.67   
 Monthly R1  8,052.80  83.87   
 Monthly R2  8,210.05  157.25   

Wednesday 4/3/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Much to my surprise, the red-green pair on the far right of the chart has remained in place. It's been there long enough (at least 7 days) so that it'll remain. (That is, signals can appear or disappear for up to a week).

The green bar is bullish, but notice that the CPI line, near the bottom of the chart, is heading lower. It's not far enough along to be of worry yet.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 40% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 44%.
The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 492 stocks in my database are down an average of 18% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines show improvement from a week ago and that means both charts are bullish. Thus, the markets are going up...unless they don't. Go figure.

My two-week predictions ("Tom's Targets" at page top) indicate a bullish bias over the next two weeks. So we'll have to wait and see if the markets continue to head to all-time highs as I hope they will.

$ $ $

I went for a group bicycle ride this evening. I thought that maybe we'd see three people at the rally. Instead, I showed up along with 102 other riders. Wow. It's the largest crowd they've had for a first-of-season ride. The police were there to block off the roads as we crossed and they also lead the rally. The town mayor and a few councilmen also rode with us. We covered 12.5 miles in just over an hour, so it was a slow pace.

A little child almost ran into me. I was moving to the left to pass a group to head toward the front of the pack when this pipsqueak comes shooting toward me. I yelled and veered left, so we missed each other.

Aside from that incident, it was a terrific ride. They do it monthly, sponsored by the mayor, so I plan to attend them. Good exercise. Sure beats doing 30 minutes on my elliptical.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/2/19. Broadening Bottom Quiz!

The index climbed by 1.3% or 329.74 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 255 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 137 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 118 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 182/303 or 60.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 36/71 or 50.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I released a quiz on broadening bottoms.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,869.19    
 Weekly S2  25,282.94  413.75   
 Monthly S1  25,563.81  280.87   
 Weekly S1  25,770.68  206.87   
 Weekly Pivot  25,860.00  89.32   
 Monthly Pivot  25,902.61  42.61   
 Daily S2  25,994.46  91.85   
 Low  26,071.69  77.23   
 Open  26,075.10  3.41   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  26,126.44  51.34   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,151.61  25.17   
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,176.29  24.69   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,200.98  24.69   
 Daily Pivot  26,203.67  2.69   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  26,258.42  54.75   
 High  26,280.90  22.48   
 Daily R1  26,335.65  54.75   
 Weekly R1  26,347.74  12.09   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  26,412.88  65.14   
 Weekly R2  26,437.06  24.18   
 Monthly R1  26,597.23  160.17   
 Monthly R2  26,936.03  338.81   

Monday 4/1/19. Quarter Forecast Updated

Picture of the Dow forecast on the daily scale.

The above chart shows the year's prediction of the Dow, made in January, updated to today. In other words, I show the Dow's price move to the end of March.

The red line is the forecast. It assumes the dow has a 10-year cycle, so all you do is sum every year ending with a 9 (for 2019) and you get the line. It's more complicated than that depending on the scale you use (daily, weekly, monthly).

See the above link for more details about how I made the forecast.

Returning to the chart, I included data from the 2009 bear market. It assumes that a bear market will occur again this year. It pulled down the first three months of the prediction.

Notice, however, that if we were to flip the red line vertically how close the prediction would be to the actual. Of course, that would mean we've see the peak for the year. And that seems unlikely to me.

Picture of the Dow forecast on the daily scale.

This chart shows the prediction after removing the 2009 bear market from the average. As I mentioned, this line is closer to what the Dow did, but it's still off.

Both charts show the Dow ending the year on a high note. The numbers show that they are within about 300 points of each other. Both forecasts show weakness over the early summer (May to July) and weakness started in late August through October. September is traditionally the weakest month of the year, so that's no surprise.

You can view the forecast out to 2029 here. If it's correct (it won't be) and you're bullish, it'll curl your toes with delight. If you're bearish, it'll give you nightmares.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 
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