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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Chart Patterns: After the Buy
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Busted
Patterns
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 04/25/2018
24,084 59.70 0.2%
10,508 108.03 1.0%
695 -0.48 -0.1%
7,004 -3.61 -0.1%
2,639 4.84 0.2%
YTD
-2.6%
-1.0%
-3.9%
1.5%
-1.3%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 04/13/2018
25,300 or 23,400 by 05/01/2018
10,800 or 9,800 by 05/01/2018
670 or 710 by 05/01/2018
7,400 or 6,800 by 05/01/2018
2,750 or 2,600 by 05/01/2018

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April 2018 Headlines


Archives


Thursday 4/26/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -3.61 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 580 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 319 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 261 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 145/259 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/89 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart shows an ascending triangle, highlighted in red.

You might think that the breakout from these is upward most of the time. However, new (a few years old as described in my book, Chart Patterns: After the Buy,Chart Patterns: After the Buy versus 18 years old) says that ascending triangles actually breakout upward 64% of the time. Okay, so that's still upward most of the time. (The 18 year old figure is 70%). Sixty-one percent of those will throw back.

$ $ $

I released a new version of Patternz (7.1). It's available in finer shops nationwide or at my website here.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,399.72    
 Monthly S1  6,701.73  302.01   
 Daily S2  6,883.38  181.65   
 Low  6,926.97  43.59   
 Weekly S2  6,942.66  15.69   
 Daily S1  6,943.56  0.90   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  6,966.61  23.05   
 Weekly S1  6,973.20  6.59   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  6,978.85  5.65   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily Pivot  6,987.15  8.29   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  6,991.10  3.95   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  7,003.74  12.64   
 Open  7,009.99  6.25   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  7,030.74  20.75   
 Daily R1  7,047.33  16.59   
 Daily R2  7,090.92  43.59   
 Monthly Pivot  7,107.97  17.05   
 Weekly Pivot  7,146.39  38.42   
 Weekly R1  7,176.93  30.54   
 Weekly R2  7,350.12  173.19   
 Monthly R1  7,409.98  59.86   
 Monthly R2  7,816.22  406.24   

Wednesday 4/25/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows that the indicator turned red four days ago, but it actually flipped red today with the 400+ point drop in the Dow industrials (yes, I know. We're looking at the S&P).

As I've mentioned many times before, the indicator can flip for up to a week. Even though the red signal looks timely, it's really late.

But it does suggests a strong push lower is underway. But could the drop be over?

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 29% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 24%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 33% on 04/02/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 513 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

The chart shows the two lines made a large drop, confirmed by the above figures. This is especially true of the red line, which is the more sensitive of the two.

The prior chart is bearish. This chart is bearish. Does it mean the market is going to continue to tumble? I think the answer is probably yes. There's more room for the index to fall before it hits support shown by an up-sloping line drawn beneath the Feb and Apr valleys.

Of course, the index might turn upward here, too, because it's been dropping for a week now.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/24/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.1% or -14.25 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1312 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 680 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 632 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 160/268 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/68 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

This is an interesting picture because it shows a rare diamond bottom. Pay attention those of you who have recently sent me emails asking if they have correctly identified a diamond.

The pattern begins by broadening out then the two trendlines converge, leaving a diamond shape on the chart. This one is a nice looking one because often the diamond looks pushed to one side.

In this case, it breaks out downward, which occurs just 31% of the time, according to my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second Edition.Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book.

I show a pic of the book on the right. If you click on the image, it'll take you to a favorite shopping place were you can buy a few dozen. Give them away as gifts to your neighbors. In a pinch, they double as firewood. Yes, it's a great who-dunnit.

A pullback has returned price back to the breakout, which is what I expected. I think this will continue higher tomorrow (Tuesday), but that's just a guess, of course.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  22,588.26    
 Monthly S1  23,518.47  930.22   
 Weekly S2  24,076.97  558.50   
 Daily S2  24,229.69  152.72   
 Weekly S1  24,262.83  33.14   
 Monthly Pivot  24,274.74  11.91   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  24,328.54  53.80   
 Daily S1  24,339.19  10.65   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  24,408.13  68.94   
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,432.71  24.59   
 Daily Pivot  24,438.04  5.32   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  24,448.69  10.65   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,457.30  8.61   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  24,488.07  30.77   
 High  24,536.89  48.82   
 Daily R1  24,547.54  10.65   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly Pivot  24,560.90  13.36   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  24,646.39  85.49   
 Weekly R1  24,746.76  100.37   
 Weekly R2  25,044.83  298.07   
 Monthly R1  25,204.95  160.12   
 Monthly R2  25,961.22  756.26   

Monday 4/23/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

Let's review the chart of the Dow industrials, which is on the daily scale.

A nicely defined head-and-shoulders top appears on the accompanying chart as LS (left shoulder), Head, and RS (right shoulder).

It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below the down-sloping neckline. Since the neckline slopes downward, the index might never close below it, so I draw a horizontal neckline, which I show at B as a horizontal line.

As you can see, the index closes below it.

Recently, however, the index has formed a rising wedge (A).

The index followed two converging and rising trendlines at A. But it broke out downward, with a target of the bottom of the wedge. It might not get there, though. In this volatile market, the index will go wherever it wants. It does this in non-volatile markets, too, come to think of it.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 212.9 points.
Tuesday: Up 213.59 points.
Wednesday: Down 38.56 points.
Thursday: Down 83.18 points.
Friday: Down 201.95 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 102.8 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 39.48 points or 0.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 13.84 points or 0.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     8.1% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     4.8% up from the low of 23,344.52 on 04/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     6.4% down from the high of 7,637.27 on 03/13/2018.
     7.8% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     7.1% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     5.4% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/20/2018, the CPI had:

18 bearish patterns,
4 bullish patterns,
241 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 18.2%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,202  24,333  24,505  24,636  24,808 
Weekly  24,082  24,272  24,566  24,756  25,050 
Monthly  22,593  23,528  24,279  25,214  25,966 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,642  2,656  2,675  2,689  2,708 
Weekly  2,626  2,648  2,683  2,705  2,740 
Monthly  2,454  2,562  2,662  2,770  2,870 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,065  7,105  7,164  7,205  7,264 
Weekly  6,990  7,068  7,194  7,272  7,398 
Monthly  6,447  6,797  7,155  7,505  7,864 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 32.3%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 54.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 32.9%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 54.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 34.4%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 47.4%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
24Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
18Pipe bottom
13Triangle, symmetrical
9Head-and-shoulders top
8Triple bottom
6Head-and-shoulders bottom
6Dead-cat bounce
5Double Top, Adam and Adam
5Broadening bottom
4Triangle, ascending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Shoe
2. Shoe2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Human Resources3. Human Resources
4. Internet4. Apparel
5. Apparel5. Computer Software and Svcs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/20/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 617 stocks searched, or 2.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 9 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACETDead-cat bounce      04/19/201804/19/2018Chemical (Diversified)
ALKPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Air Transport
AMWDHead-and-shoulders top      03/29/201804/16/2018Building Materials
AMATHead-and-shoulders top      01/25/201804/17/2018Semiconductor Cap Equip.
ASNARectangle bottom      06/06/201704/19/2018Apparel
BRCRising wedge      03/29/201804/19/2018Chemical (Diversified)
CLSPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Electronics
CHDDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/04/201804/18/2018Household Products
CLTriple top      03/29/201804/18/2018Household Products
CYHead-and-shoulders top      01/23/201804/13/2018Semiconductor
^DJIRising wedge      03/27/201804/17/2018None
FRDPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Building Materials
HUBGPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Trucking/Transp. Leasing
JBHTPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IVCBroadening top, right-angled and descending      02/07/201804/19/2018Medical Supplies
LXUPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Building Materials
MUPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Semiconductor
PGTriangle, symmetrical      03/29/201804/18/2018Household Products
RLITriangle, symmetrical      01/24/201804/18/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ROGPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Electronics
SOTriangle, ascending      02/01/201804/16/2018Electric Utility (East)
TZOOPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Internet
IYKDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/05/201804/17/2018Household Products

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/12/2018 and 04/19/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 608 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $2.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.90 or 46.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -74.25%
Volume: 7,402,800 shares. 3 month avg: 395,892 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 04/19/2018 to 04/19/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 562 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $65.52
1 Month avg volatility: $1.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.16 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.87%
Volume: 1,434,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,966,126 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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American Woodmark Corp (AMWD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 468 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $89.95
1 Month avg volatility: $3.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $102.59 or 14.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -30.94%
Volume: 194,500 shares. 3 month avg: 141,992 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/29/2018 to 04/16/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Applied Materials (AMAT)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 476 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $51.19
1 Month avg volatility: $2.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.43 or 14.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.14%
Volume: 24,258,700 shares. 3 month avg: 11,583,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/25/2018 to 04/17/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 132 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $2.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.48 or 10.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.68%
Volume: 459,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/06/2017 to 04/19/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 12/05/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/05/2018.
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Brady Corp (BRC)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 380 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $37.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.56 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.00%
Volume: 108,400 shares. 3 month avg: 204,463 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/29/2018 to 04/19/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Celestica Inc (CLS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 543 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $10.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.05 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.38%
Volume: 513,400 shares. 3 month avg: 557,234 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Church and Dwight Co Inc (CHD)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 326 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $48.72
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.47 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.89%
Volume: 3,158,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,023,622 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/04/2018 to 04/18/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 454 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $69.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $73.22 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.53%
Volume: 5,536,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,441,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 03/29/2018 to 04/18/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Cypress Semiconductor (CY)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 278 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $16.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.18 or 10.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.46%
Volume: 7,269,600 shares. 3 month avg: 5,847,760 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/23/2018 to 04/13/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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DJ 30 Industrials (^DJI)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/19/18 close: $24,664.89
1 Month avg volatility: $422.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25,607.16 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.22%
Volume: 381,114,900 shares. 3 month avg: 440,085,218 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/27/2018 to 04/17/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Friedman Industries Inc (FRD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 331 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $6.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.64 or 8.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.15%
Volume: 700 shares. 3 month avg: 27,460 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Hub Group Inc. (HUBG)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 170 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $44.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.14 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.72%
Volume: 149,800 shares. 3 month avg: 343,494 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Hunt, J.B. (JBHT)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 143 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $121.27
1 Month avg volatility: $3.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $113.15 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.47%
Volume: 743,800 shares. 3 month avg: 898,451 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 65 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $18.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.58 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.57%
Volume: 168,300 shares. 3 month avg: 553,063 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 02/07/2018 to 04/19/2018
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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LSB Industries Inc (LXU)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 557 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $6.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.72 or 11.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -26.71%
Volume: 92,300 shares. 3 month avg: 278,209 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Micron Technology (MU)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 89 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $51.42
1 Month avg volatility: $2.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.05 or 10.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.05%
Volume: 52,502,300 shares. 3 month avg: 38,182,855 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Procter and Gamble Co (PG)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 566 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $74.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.75 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.43%
Volume: 16,951,100 shares. 3 month avg: 7,163,346 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/29/2018 to 04/18/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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RLI Corp (RLI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 192 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $64.16
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.80 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.77%
Volume: 167,500 shares. 3 month avg: 149,782 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/24/2018 to 04/18/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Rogers Corp (ROG)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $120.30
1 Month avg volatility: $4.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $111.02 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -25.70%
Volume: 74,500 shares. 3 month avg: 155,332 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/28/2018. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/30/2018 and a 38% chance by 08/29/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Southern Company (SO)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 518 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $45.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.58 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.18%
Volume: 4,297,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,514,520 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/01/2018 to 04/16/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 420 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $7.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.91 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.28%
Volume: 3,000 shares. 3 month avg: 22,411 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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DJ US consumer goods (household goods) (IYK)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 431 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $116.65
1 Month avg volatility: $1.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $121.78 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.95%
Volume: 35,300 shares. 3 month avg: 39,305 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/05/2018 to 04/17/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Thursday 4/19/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.2% or 14.14 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 662 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 382 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 280 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 145/258 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/89 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

On this chart, the broadening top isn't that clear. I've drawn the red lines to highlight it.

Broadening tops are an unusual pattern. They form from the struggle between buying demand and selling pressure, just like other patterns. In this case, the swings from peak to valley widen over time, and yet they are bounded by two diverging trendlines.

Eventually, the index will breakout from the pattern and move off, perhaps starting to trend instead of moving sideways.

Something tells me that trend will be down (a guess), but we'll have to wait and see.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,414.85    
 Monthly S1  6,855.04  440.20   
 Weekly S2  6,902.61  47.57   
 Weekly S1  7,098.93  196.31   
 Weekly Pivot  7,141.27  42.35   
 Daily S2  7,231.89  90.62   
 Monthly Pivot  7,246.16  14.26   
 Low  7,259.90  13.74   
 Daily S1  7,263.57  3.67   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,282.70  19.13   
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,289.74  7.04   
 Daily Pivot  7,291.57  1.83   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  7,292.38  0.81   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  7,295.24  2.86   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,296.78  1.54   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  7,319.58  22.80   
 Daily R1  7,323.25  3.67   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  7,337.59  14.34   
 Daily R2  7,351.25  13.67   
 Weekly R2  7,379.93  28.68   
 Monthly R1  7,686.35  306.42   
 Monthly R2  8,077.47  391.11   

Wednesday 4/18/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator turned bullish a few weeks ago and despite some hints of turning lower, it's remained bullish. It appears to be pegged at scale top, though.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 24% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 27%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 33% on 04/02/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 513 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

Both lines show improvement over the prior week as the above stats attest.

They appear to be forming a double bottom (unconfirmed, meaning the line hasn't moved above the March peak). I don't know if that's important or not (because we're dealing with an indicator), but the pattern looks promising.

Notice how the blue and red double bottoms mirror the pattern the index has formed. Hmm. It suggests these two indicators aren't worth much if you can see the same thing on the price scale. Food for thought.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/17/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.9% or 212.9 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 501 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 292 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 209 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 159/267 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/68 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The Dow made a very nice looking big M chart pattern at AB. That's a double top with long legs, for lack of a better word. Notice that it almost dropped (D) to the launch price (C). That's how they should behave (meaning a large drop).

Recently, the average made a rising wedge, which I show here outlined in red.

On Friday, the index dropped below the bottom of the pattern before returning. Perhaps that's an indication of future weakness. Maybe it suggests a downward breakout.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  22,350.94    
 Monthly S1  23,461.99  1,111.05   
 Weekly S2  23,699.82  237.83   
 Weekly S1  24,136.43  436.61   
 Daily S2  24,381.04  244.61   
 Weekly Pivot  24,391.44  10.40   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Monthly Pivot  24,455.57  64.13   
 Daily S1  24,477.04  21.47   
 Low  24,480.20  3.16   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  24,483.15  2.95   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  24,554.75  71.60   
 Close  24,573.04  18.29   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  24,576.20  3.16   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,577.78  1.58   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,600.81  23.03   
 Daily R1  24,672.20  71.39   
 High  24,675.36  3.16   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  24,771.36  96.00   
 Weekly R1  24,828.05  56.69   
 Weekly R2  25,083.06  255.01   
 Monthly R1  25,566.62  483.56   
 Monthly R2  26,560.20  993.58   

Monday 4/16/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

Notice the Adam & Eve double top at AB. Unfortunately, it didn't confirm as a valid chart pattern because the index didn't close below the low between the two peaks (C). Or perhaps it did. Hard to tell in this pic.

Regardless, the index didn't drop much and that's no surprise for double tops. (That means, price doesn't drop much unless you have money on the line. Then it drops far enough to drain your wallet or purse).

Recently, a broadening bottom appears, bounded by the two diverging red trendlines.

Because the index is headed toward the top trendline, and it's close to the top of the pattern, an upward breakout is the most likely, but not guaranteed, scenario.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 46.34 points.
Tuesday: Up 428.9 points.
Wednesday: Down 218.55 points.
Thursday: Up 293.6 points.
Friday: Down 122.91 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 427.38 points or 1.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 191.54 points or 2.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 51.83 points or 2.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     8.5% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     4.4% up from the low of 23,344.52 on 04/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     6.9% down from the high of 7,637.27 on 03/13/2018.
     7.2% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     7.5% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     4.9% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/13/2018, the CPI had:

15 bearish patterns,
32 bullish patterns,
535 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 68.1%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,014  24,187  24,417  24,590  24,819 
Weekly  23,629  23,994  24,320  24,686  25,012 
Monthly  22,280  23,320  24,385  25,425  26,489 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,625  2,641  2,661  2,676  2,696 
Weekly  2,580  2,618  2,649  2,687  2,719 
Monthly  2,423  2,539  2,671  2,788  2,919 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,017  7,062  7,123  7,167  7,228 
Weekly  6,840  6,973  7,078  7,212  7,317 
Monthly  6,352  6,729  7,183  7,561  8,015 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 45.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 54.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 44.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 54.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 46.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 47.4%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 0 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
22Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
15Triangle, symmetrical
8Pipe bottom
7Triple bottom
7Double Top, Adam and Adam
6Broadening bottom
5Head-and-shoulders top
5Dead-cat bounce
4Diamond bottom
4Head-and-shoulders bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Shoe
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Apparel
3. Human Resources3. Human Resources
4. Apparel4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/13/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 25 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 618 stocks searched, or 4.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 6 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 12 bullish chart patterns this week and 8 bearish ones with any remaining (9) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AXDXPipe bottom      03/26/201804/02/2018Medical Services
DOXDiamond bottom      03/27/201804/12/2018IT Services
ASNARectangle bottom      06/06/201704/12/2018Apparel
AVPHorn top      03/19/201804/02/2018Toiletries/Cosmetics
BBBYDead-cat bounce      04/12/201804/12/2018Retail (Special Lines)
BERYTriangle, descending      02/09/201804/11/2018Packaging and Container
CRHTriangle, descending      02/15/201804/12/2018Cement and Aggregates
CCKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/23/201804/09/2018Packaging and Container
DOPipe bottom      03/26/201804/02/2018Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
^DJURising wedge      02/26/201804/06/2018None
^DJTBroadening bottom      03/23/201804/06/2018None
ESRXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/02/201804/06/2018Medical Services
FBPipe bottom      03/26/201804/02/2018E-Commerce
FICOTriangle, descending      03/23/201804/10/2018IT Services
GETriangle, symmetrical      03/26/201804/12/2018Diversified Co.
IDAHead-and-shoulders top      03/22/201804/06/2018Electric Utility (West)
INCYDead-cat bounce      04/06/201804/06/2018Drug
LOWDiamond bottom      03/14/201804/12/2018Retail Building Supply
MADiamond bottom      03/28/201804/10/2018Financial Services
MTRXPipe bottom      03/26/201804/02/2018Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
MDCATriple bottom      03/23/201804/11/2018Advertising
MRKFalling wedge      02/09/201804/06/2018Drug
NTAPPipe bottom      03/26/201804/02/2018Computers and Peripherals
NEUDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/23/201804/06/2018Chemical (Specialty)
PLXSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/28/201804/06/2018Electronics
RDCPipe bottom      03/26/201804/02/2018Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
RESBroadening bottom      03/28/201804/12/2018Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
VMCDiamond bottom      03/20/201804/12/2018Cement and Aggregates
WATDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/02/201804/06/2018Precision Instrument
IATHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/23/201804/06/2018Long ETFs
EWYTriangle, symmetrical      03/01/201804/12/2018Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/05/2018 and 04/12/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accelerate Diagnostics Inc (AXDX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 104 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $24.35
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.01 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.06%
Volume: 155,700 shares. 3 month avg: 533,922 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/26/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Amdocs Limited (DOX)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 327 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $66.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.32 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.60%
Volume: 1,027,400 shares. 3 month avg: 895,243 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 03/27/2018 to 04/12/2018
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 150 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $2.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.51 or 10.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.98%
Volume: 1,098,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/06/2017 to 04/12/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 12/05/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/05/2018.
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Avon Products (AVP)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 96 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $2.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.10 or 12.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 27.91%
Volume: 2,245,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,898,403 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 03/19/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 7%.
Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 576 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $17.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.68 or 14.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -24.22%
Volume: 38,378,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,821,077 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 04/12/2018 to 04/12/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Berry Global Group Inc (BERY)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 433 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $55.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.43 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.15%
Volume: 916,900 shares. 3 month avg: 894,866 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/09/2018 to 04/11/2018
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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CRH plc (CRH)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $33.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.99 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.12%
Volume: 398,300 shares. 3 month avg: 546,094 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/15/2018 to 04/12/2018
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Crown Holdings Inc (CCK)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 540 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $51.69
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.27 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.11%
Volume: 1,542,300 shares. 3 month avg: 762,669 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/23/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Diamond Offshore (DO)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 83 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $18.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.10 or 12.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.08%
Volume: 2,002,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,441,012 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/26/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/12/18 close: $678.16
1 Month avg volatility: $10.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $708.84 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.25%
Volume: 55,438,800 shares. 3 month avg: 69,932,591 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/26/2018 to 04/06/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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DJ 20 Transportation (^DJT)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/12/18 close: $10,360.41
1 Month avg volatility: $195.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9,831.46 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.37%
Volume: 59,834,400 shares. 3 month avg: 59,604,923 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 03/23/2018 to 04/06/2018
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Express Scripts (ESRX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 74 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $71.61
1 Month avg volatility: $1.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.23 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.06%
Volume: 3,750,100 shares. 3 month avg: 4,217,495 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/06/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Facebook (FB)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 425 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $163.87
1 Month avg volatility: $6.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $150.64 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.13%
Volume: 38,155,900 shares. 3 month avg: 16,363,594 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/26/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Fair Isaac Corp (FICO)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 112 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $171.03
1 Month avg volatility: $4.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $180.00 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.64%
Volume: 156,700 shares. 3 month avg: 162,437 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/23/2018 to 04/10/2018
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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General Electric Co (GE)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 605 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $13.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.12 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.47%
Volume: 63,477,000 shares. 3 month avg: 74,714,158 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/26/2018 to 04/12/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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IDACORP Inc (IDA)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 423 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $84.98
1 Month avg volatility: $1.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $89.78 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.98%
Volume: 209,000 shares. 3 month avg: 199,551 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/22/2018 to 04/06/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Incyte Corp. (INCY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 600 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $69.83
1 Month avg volatility: $3.61. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.80 or 11.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -26.27%
Volume: 4,374,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,771,434 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 04/06/2018 to 04/06/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Lowes Companies, Inc (LOW)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 236 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $87.04
1 Month avg volatility: $2.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $82.35 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.35%
Volume: 3,928,100 shares. 3 month avg: 6,401,252 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 03/14/2018 to 04/12/2018
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Mastercard Inc (MA)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 105 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $174.80
1 Month avg volatility: $4.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $164.90 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.49%
Volume: 3,064,200 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 03/28/2018 to 04/10/2018
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Matrix Service Co. (MTRX)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 219 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $15.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.47 or 12.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.76%
Volume: 114,600 shares. 3 month avg: 303,508 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/26/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MDC Pateners Inc (MDCA)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 591 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $7.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.55 or 14.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.54%
Volume: 584,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 03/23/2018 to 04/11/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Merck and Co., Inc. (MRK)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 509 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $56.74
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.83 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.84%
Volume: 11,925,700 shares. 3 month avg: 11,487,503 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 02/09/2018 to 04/06/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Network Appliance (NTAP)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 13 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $67.57
1 Month avg volatility: $1.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.97 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.14%
Volume: 1,704,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,986,022 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/26/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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NewMarket Corp. (NEU)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 407 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $412.53
1 Month avg volatility: $8.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $392.94 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.81%
Volume: 33,000 shares. 3 month avg: 31,329 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/23/2018 to 04/06/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Plexus Corp (PLXS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 302 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $60.84
1 Month avg volatility: $1.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.92 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.20%
Volume: 94,400 shares. 3 month avg: 160,228 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/28/2018 to 04/06/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Rowan Companies (RDC)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 208 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $14.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.81 or 11.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.05%
Volume: 2,113,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,463,314 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/26/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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RPC Inc (RES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $18.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.24 or 11.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -27.93%
Volume: 1,539,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,275,503 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 03/28/2018 to 04/12/2018
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 382 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $114.89
1 Month avg volatility: $2.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $108.77 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.50%
Volume: 885,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,153,271 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 03/20/2018 to 04/12/2018
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Waters Corp (WAT)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 210 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $202.32
1 Month avg volatility: $4.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $191.75 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.73%
Volume: 316,800 shares. 3 month avg: 474,158 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/06/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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iShares DJ US Regional Banks (IAT)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 224 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $51.05
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.24 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.57%
Volume: 80,200 shares. 3 month avg: 125,471 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 03/23/2018 to 04/06/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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MSCI South Korea Index (EWY)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 295 out of 610
4/12/18 close: $74.29
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.88 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.85%
Volume: 2,439,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,379,288 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/01/2018 to 04/12/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 4/12/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.4% or -25.27 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 421 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 215 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 206 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 144/257 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/89 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index bumped up against overhead resistance which I drew along the peaks with the blue line. The index hit that line for the third time and dropped back.

A rising wedge appears, shown in red. It's not a well-define one, meaning the two trendlines don't converge as quickly as a normal wedge.

Notice that the index broke out downward from it. The target would be the bottom of the pattern, probably about 7020 (by my eyeball).

With today's drop, it wouldn't surprise me to see the index climb, continuing the rollercoaster.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,339.44    
 Weekly S2  6,689.37  349.93   
 Monthly S1  6,704.24  14.87   
 Weekly S1  6,879.20  174.96   
 Weekly Pivot  6,995.79  116.59   
 Daily S2  7,010.65  14.86   
 Daily S1  7,039.84  29.19   
 Open  7,055.00  15.16   
 Low  7,055.00  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Open.
 Close  7,069.03  14.03   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,083.09  14.06   
 Daily Pivot  7,084.19  1.10   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,091.77  7.58   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,100.45  8.68   
 Daily R1  7,113.38  12.93   
 High  7,128.54  15.16   
 Daily R2  7,157.73  29.19   
 Monthly Pivot  7,170.75  13.02   
 Weekly R1  7,185.62  14.87   
 Weekly R2  7,302.21  116.59   
 Monthly R1  7,535.55  233.34   
 Monthly R2  8,002.06  466.52   

Wednesday 4/11/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bearish signal that was present for the last two days disappeared after the close of trading today (Tuesday). That leaves the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart as the active signal. It's bullish.

The CPI line, the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart, bottomed in March and has climbed upward to today's peak. I'm not sure if it's at the top of the range (100), but it sure looks close.

And that suggests it has nowhere to go but down. Hmm.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 26% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 30%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 33% on 04/02/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 514 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

Both lines have made a dramatic improvement over the last week with the red line surging four percentage points (from 30% of stock bearish to 26%).

That's the good news. What's the bad news?

The bad news is I don't see any. Both charts are bullish, so let's be happy.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/10/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.2% or 46.34 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1298 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 707 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 591 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 158/266 or 59.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/68 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I was pleased that the Dow climbed in the morning and even into the afternoon. I felt that my holdings were safe from a soft day.

However, I was dismayed to tune into market activity and see that the Dow was only up about 42 points at the time. Sigh. These big swings seem to be par for the course recently.

You can see the drop from A to C late in the day. If C were to mark the bottom of the plunge, you'd have a chart pattern called a inverted and ascending scallop.

Those tend to breakout upward. But with no stop to the plunge at C, it could be that the Dow continues lower.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  22,152.96    
 Weekly S2  22,704.22  551.26   
 Monthly S1  23,066.03  361.81   
 Weekly S1  23,341.66  275.63   
 Daily S2  23,684.02  342.36   
 Daily S1  23,831.56  147.54   
 Low  23,954.83  123.27   
 Close  23,979.10  24.27   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  23,981.96  2.86   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 Open  24,037.52  55.56   
 Daily Pivot  24,102.37  64.85   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  24,114.64  12.27   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,164.01  49.37   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,213.37  49.37   
 Daily R1  24,249.91  36.54   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  24,257.59  7.68   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 High  24,373.18  115.59   
 Daily R2  24,520.72  147.54   
 Weekly R1  24,619.40  98.68   
 Monthly R1  25,170.66  551.26   
 Weekly R2  25,259.70  89.04   
 Monthly R2  26,362.22  1,102.52   

Monday 4/9/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show a snapshot of the Dow utilities average.

A rising wedge appears at A.

Price bounds wedges with two converging trendlines, which I show with the red lines. In rising wedges, both lines slope upward. Descending wedges have trendlines sloping downward.

Breakouts are usually downward. In fact, statistics derived from my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second EditionEncyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book. says that the breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Add in tensions of a trade war with the planet, it's small wonder Wall Street is taking a hit.

The chart pattern indicator turned bearish on Friday, too.

Longer term, I remain bullish. Notice the upward slope of the index from the lows in February. But that's for the Dow utilities, which are recovering from a large decline starting from the November peak.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 458.92 points.
Tuesday: Up 389.17 points.
Wednesday: Up 230.94 points.
Thursday: Up 240.92 points.
Friday: Down 572.46 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 170.35 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 148.34 points or 2.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 36.4 points or 1.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     10.1% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     2.5% up from the low of 23,344.52 on 04/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     9.5% down from the high of 7,637.27 on 03/13/2018.
     4.3% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     9.3% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     2.8% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  23,339  23,636  24,035  24,332  24,731 
Weekly  22,689  23,311  23,967  24,589  25,244 
Monthly  22,138  23,035  24,242  25,140  26,347 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,545  2,575  2,616  2,645  2,686 
Weekly  2,492  2,548  2,610  2,666  2,728 
Monthly  2,405  2,505  2,653  2,753  2,901 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  6,764  6,840  6,953  7,029  7,142 
Weekly  6,638  6,777  6,944  7,083  7,251 
Monthly  6,288  6,602  7,119  7,433  7,951 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.7%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months down 7.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.1%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months down 5.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.5%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months down 8.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 7 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
28Double Top, Adam and Adam
15Triangle, symmetrical
11Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
10Head-and-shoulders top
7Pipe top
6Triple top
6Broadening bottom
5Triple bottom
4Double Top, Eve and Eve
3Triangle, ascending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Shoe
2. Apparel2. Human Resources
3. Human Resources3. Internet
4. Computer Software and Svcs4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Petroleum (Producing)5. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/6/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 15 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 618 stocks searched, or 2.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ALKSDead-cat bounce      04/02/201804/02/2018Drug
BADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/28/201804/04/2018Aerospace/Defense
CNODouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/23/201804/02/2018Insurance (Diversified)
CBPXTriangle, symmetrical      01/26/201804/03/2018Retail Building Supply
FCXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/28/201804/04/2018Metals and Mining (Div.)
HSYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/23/201804/02/2018Food Processing
JNJDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/23/201804/02/2018Medical Supplies
LENTriple bottom      02/06/201804/03/2018Homebuilding
LMTHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/14/201804/04/2018Aerospace/Defense
MPipe bottom      03/19/201803/26/2018Retail Store
MURDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/08/201804/02/2018Petroleum (Integrated)
PHMTriple bottom      02/09/201804/02/2018Homebuilding
ROSTTriple bottom      03/07/201804/02/2018Retail (Special Lines)
IYKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/23/201804/02/2018Household Products
ITBDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/02/201804/02/2018Homebuilding
XLPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/23/201804/02/2018Household Products

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/29/2018 and 04/05/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Alkermes (ALKS)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 551 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $42.69
1 Month avg volatility: $2.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.84 or 16.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -22.00%
Volume: 939,500 shares. 3 month avg: 949,792 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Boeing Company, The (BA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 48 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $336.40
1 Month avg volatility: $10.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $309.75 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.07%
Volume: 6,185,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,332,308 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/28/2018 to 04/04/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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CNO Financial Group, Inc (CNO)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 442 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $22.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.26 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.11%
Volume: 793,200 shares. 3 month avg: 898,068 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/23/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Continental Building Products Inc (CBPX)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 157 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $29.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.38 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.09%
Volume: 183,600 shares. 3 month avg: 303,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/26/2018 to 04/03/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold B (FCX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 65 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $18.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.37 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.48%
Volume: 16,529,800 shares. 3 month avg: 16,878,592 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/28/2018 to 04/04/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Hershey Company, The (HSY)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 476 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $99.70
1 Month avg volatility: $1.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $95.56 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.17%
Volume: 1,039,000 shares. 3 month avg: 973,146 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/23/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 380 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $130.71
1 Month avg volatility: $2.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $124.06 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.45%
Volume: 5,620,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,464,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/23/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Lennar Corp. Cl A (LEN)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 138 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $64.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.34 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.20%
Volume: 6,945,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,465,638 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 02/06/2018 to 04/03/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 174 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $346.65
1 Month avg volatility: $7.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $325.11 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.97%
Volume: 1,588,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,022,062 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 03/14/2018 to 04/04/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Macys, Inc (M)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 21 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $30.93
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.62 or 10.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.79%
Volume: 9,495,700 shares. 3 month avg: 14,056,392 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/19/2018 to 03/26/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 338 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $26.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.55 or 8.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.20%
Volume: 1,823,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,218,335 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/08/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 158 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $30.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.90 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.34%
Volume: 6,343,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,812,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 02/09/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Ross Stores (ROST)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 80 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $79.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.42 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.60%
Volume: 2,191,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,750,108 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 03/07/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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DJ US consumer goods (household goods) (IYK)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 363 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $120.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $117.53 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.56%
Volume: 8,700 shares. 3 month avg: 39,305 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/23/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ US Home construction index fund (ITB)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 182 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $41.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.79 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.72%
Volume: 4,403,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,388,375 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/02/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector (XLP)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 390 out of 610
4/5/18 close: $52.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.25 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.91%
Volume: 18,234,800 shares. 3 month avg: 10,903,955 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/23/2018 to 04/02/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 4/5/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.5% or 100.83 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 107 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 62 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 45 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 143/256 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/89 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Buried in today's (Wednesday) and yesterday's price action is a Eve & Adam double bottom. It could be an Eve & Eve or maybe one of the other two combinations.

Anyway, it confirmed when the index closed above the horizontal red line. I show a target, based on the height of the pattern projected upward from the red line. It's an eyeball target, meaning I didn't measure it.

It suggests we have more of an upward move to come. Of course, we could bounce off zero first...

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,457.28    
 Weekly S2  6,711.77  254.49   
 Daily S2  6,723.54  11.77   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Monthly S1  6,749.70  26.16   
 Open  6,811.77  62.07   
 Low  6,811.77  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Open.
 Weekly S1  6,876.94  65.17   
 Daily S1  6,882.82  5.88   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  6,906.32  23.50   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  6,935.53  29.21   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  6,964.74  29.21   
 Daily Pivot  6,971.06  6.32   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  7,042.11  71.05   
 High  7,059.29  17.18   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot  7,066.24  6.95   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  7,130.34  64.10   
 Monthly Pivot  7,193.48  63.14   
 Daily R2  7,218.58  25.09   
 Weekly R1  7,231.41  12.83   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  7,420.71  189.30   
 Monthly R1  7,485.90  65.19   
 Monthly R2  7,929.68  443.79   

Wednesday 4/4/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator signaled today, turning bullish. The green vertical band on the far right shows this.

This signal is fragile, meaning it can disappear for up to 7 days. But it's a good start for those traders on the bullish side.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 30% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 27%.
The fewest was 16% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 33% on 04/02/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 514 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 16%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 19% on 02/08/2018.

This chart is an improved version from prior week's charts. The chart had a bug which didn't show the most recent day. That has been corrected in this chart.

As you can see, the red and blue lines dipped yesterday and moved higher today (Tuesday).

If you read the above text, it describes a deteriorating position of the stocks I follow in my database. The red line is the more sensitive of the two, and it made a big drop over the prior week. You can see that the red line made a new yearly low just yesterday.

So we have a bullish CPI line on the prior chart and a bearish chart above. My vote goes with the CPI chart, so I'm looking for a recovery. Of course, world events will shape what actually happens.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/3/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -1.9% or -458.92 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 97 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 55 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.5% on 42 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 157/265 or 59.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/68 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The blue line is a support area which I highlight on the chart. Price today, made a straight line run down to A before it bounced upward. The bounce formed a chart pattern.

That pattern is called a descending scallop. Because the pattern is so tall, the breakout from these is usually downward. So that's what I expect will happen.

However, given the volatile nature of the markets and with Trump in the white house, there's not telling what will happen.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  22,026.58    
 Monthly S1  22,835.38  808.81   
 Daily S2  22,924.89  89.51   
 Weekly S2  23,195.56  270.67   
 Daily S1  23,284.54  88.98   
 Low  23,344.52  59.98   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S1  23,419.87  75.35   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  23,642.21  222.33   
 Close  23,644.19  1.98   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  23,704.17  59.98   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  23,734.16  29.99   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  23,826.12  91.96   
 Weekly Pivot  23,933.05  106.93   
 Daily R1  24,063.82  130.77   
 Open  24,076.60  12.78   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  24,123.80  47.20   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  24,157.36  33.56   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Monthly Pivot  24,317.87  160.50   
 Daily R2  24,483.45  165.58   
 Weekly R2  24,670.54  187.09   
 Monthly R1  25,126.67  456.14   
 Monthly R2  26,609.16  1,482.48   

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