Subscribe to RSS feeds Bulkowski Blog via RSS

Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

Support this site! Clicking the links (below) takes you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING, they pay for the referral.

Picture of Bumper.
Kindle
Paperback
Nook
Picture of the head's law.
Kindle
Paperback
Nook
Chart Patterns: After the Buy
Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition book.
Trading Basics: Evolution of a Trader book.
Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Swing and Day Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Visual Guide to Chart Patterns book.
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book.
Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
Class Elliott Wave Fundamentals Psychology Quiz Research Setups Software Tutorials More...
Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 12/15/2017
24,652 143.08 0.6%
10,393 65.06 0.6%
753 2.81 0.4%
6,937 80.05 1.2%
2,676 23.80 0.9%
YTD
24.7%
14.9%
14.2%
28.9%
19.5%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 12/14/2017
24,850 or 24,000 by 01/01/2018
10,000 or 11,000 by 01/01/2018
735 or 780 by 01/01/2018
7,100 or 6,700 by 01/01/2018
2,725 or 2,600 by 01/01/2018

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

April 2017 Headlines


Archives


Saturday 4/29/17. This Just In!

I released a new novel (fiction), called Tears for Bumper, pictured on the right.

It's available in kindle only, so far.

It's an engaging and entertaining story of a man and his dog as they share a life together. You'll laugh. You'll cry. And you'll learn about canine cognitive dysfunction, too.

BONUS material includes:

  • About Tears for Bumper
  • How Long Will My Dog Live?
  • About Canine Cognitive Dysfunction
  • What is CCD?
  • DISHA
  • Diagnosis
  • Treatment and Care of Senior Dogs

If you own a dog, you owe it to yourself to buy this book. Not only will you learn about CCD, but the information could save you money as well.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 4/28/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 19 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 611 stocks searched, or 3.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 10 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 19 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AXDXPipe bottom      04/10/201704/17/2017Medical Services
AEISChannel      04/29/201604/27/2017Semiconductor
AEEDiamond top      04/10/201704/27/2017Electric Utility (Central)
AONRising wedge      03/17/201704/27/2017Insurance (Diversified)
ARCBPipe bottom      04/10/201704/17/2017Trucking/Transp. Leasing
CVXChannel      12/12/201604/27/2017Petroleum (Integrated)
CONNFlag, high and tight      03/14/201704/26/2017Retail (Special Lines)
CSODPipe bottom      04/10/201704/17/2017E-Commerce
^DJUTriangle, ascending      03/09/201704/24/2017None
BGCPipe bottom      04/10/201704/17/2017Computers and Peripherals
GNWRectangle top      02/16/201704/27/2017Insurance (Life)
GFFPipe bottom      04/10/201704/17/2017Building Materials
HSYRectangle top      02/09/201704/27/2017Food Processing
IPGBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      03/21/201704/21/2017Advertising
IVCBroadening top, right-angled and descending      02/14/201704/24/2017Medical Supplies
NKETriangle, symmetrical      03/22/201704/27/2017Shoe
NWPXPipe bottom      04/10/201704/17/2017Building Materials
OLNPipe bottom      04/10/201704/17/2017Chemical (Basic)
OTEXRectangle top      01/25/201704/27/2017E-Commerce
PDLIRectangle bottom      12/02/201604/27/2017Biotechnology
PCLNTriangle, symmetrical      03/27/201704/21/2017Internet
ROKPipe bottom      04/10/201704/17/2017Diversified Co.
TPXPipe bottom      04/10/201704/17/2017Furn/Home Furnishings
XLBroadening top      03/06/201704/21/2017Insurance (Diversified)
ZBRAPipe bottom      04/10/201704/17/2017Computers and Peripherals
EWWBroadening top      03/30/201704/26/2017Investment Co. (Foreign)
PBEHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/27/201704/21/2017Biotechnology
XLUTriangle, ascending      03/09/201704/27/2017Electric Utility (Central)
BBHTriangle, symmetrical      03/27/201704/21/2017Biotechnology

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/20/2017 and 04/27/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accelerate Diagnostics Inc (AXDX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 139 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $26.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.70 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 28.92%
Volume: 254,600 shares. 3 month avg: 265,442 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/10/2017 to 04/17/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 16 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $75.04
1 Month avg volatility: $1.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.27 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 37.06%
Volume: 616,300 shares. 3 month avg: 435,720 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 04/27/2017

Top

Ameren (AEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 318 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $55.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $56.69 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.90%
Volume: 1,245,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,524,529 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/10/2017 to 04/27/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Aon Corp (AON)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 343 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $120.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $123.13 or 2.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.72%
Volume: 847,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,200 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/17/2017 to 04/27/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

ArcBest Corp (ARCB)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 61 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $27.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.01 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.45%
Volume: 145,700 shares. 3 month avg: 197,242 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/10/2017 to 04/17/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Chevron Corp (CVX)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 436 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $105.47
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $101.88 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.39%
Volume: 5,756,100 shares. 3 month avg: 6,510,606 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 12/12/2016 to 04/27/2017

Top

Conns Inc (CONN)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 7 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $17.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.02 or 11.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 34.39%
Volume: 1,052,900 shares. 3 month avg: 627,520 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/14/2017 to 04/26/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Cornerstone OnDemand Inc (CSOD)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 507 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $39.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.70 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.71%
Volume: 460,200 shares. 3 month avg: 596,254 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/10/2017 to 04/17/2017
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/04/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/05/2017.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/27/17 close: $707.58
1 Month avg volatility: $5.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $693.08 or 2.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.27%
Volume: 47,647,200 shares. 3 month avg: 45,166,222 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/09/2017 to 04/24/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

General Cable (BGC)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 86 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $18.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.13 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.84%
Volume: 353,500 shares. 3 month avg: 552,568 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/10/2017 to 04/17/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 533 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $4.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.83 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.61%
Volume: 2,022,900 shares. 3 month avg: 8,155,694 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/16/2017 to 04/27/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 28 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $24.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.42 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.53%
Volume: 104,300 shares. 3 month avg: 133,418 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/10/2017 to 04/17/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Hershey Company, The (HSY)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 328 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $107.38
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $104.88 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.82%
Volume: 897,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,058,183 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/09/2017 to 04/27/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 374 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $24.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25.12 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.03%
Volume: 5,804,700 shares. 3 month avg: 4,323,217 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 03/21/2017 to 04/21/2017
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top

Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 87 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $13.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.99 or 9.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.53%
Volume: 303,300 shares. 3 month avg: 259,912 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 02/14/2017 to 04/24/2017
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Top

Nike Inc (NKE)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 398 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $55.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.49 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.13%
Volume: 8,531,200 shares. 3 month avg: 9,246,168 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/22/2017 to 04/27/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Northwest Pipe Co (NWPX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 420 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $14.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.71 or 11.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.02%
Volume: 51,100 shares. 3 month avg: 67,598 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/10/2017 to 04/17/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Olin Corp. (OLN)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 27 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $32.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.91 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.22%
Volume: 2,234,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,513,702 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/10/2017 to 04/17/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Open Text Corp (OTEX)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 337 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $34.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.49 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.89%
Volume: 369,400 shares. 3 month avg: 512,078 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 01/25/2017 to 04/27/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

PDL BioPharma Inc (PDLI)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 597 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $2.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.53 or 11.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.55%
Volume: 1,825,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,845,766 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 12/02/2016 to 04/27/2017
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Top

Priceline.com (PCLN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 137 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $1,835.87
1 Month avg volatility: $20.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1,760.24 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.22%
Volume: 418,700 shares. 3 month avg: 407,586 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/27/2017 to 04/21/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 82 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $159.27
1 Month avg volatility: $2.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $153.16 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.50%
Volume: 1,151,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,119,860 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/10/2017 to 04/17/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Tempur-pedic Intl (TPX)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $47.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.77 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -30.81%
Volume: 805,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,040,292 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/10/2017 to 04/17/2017
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/30/2017. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/01/2017 and a 38% chance by 07/31/2017.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

XL Group (XL)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 111 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $42.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $44.61 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.16%
Volume: 2,370,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,595,055 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 03/06/2017 to 04/21/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Zebra Technologies Corp (ZBRA)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 45 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $94.16
1 Month avg volatility: $1.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $89.49 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.79%
Volume: 291,900 shares. 3 month avg: 317,540 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/10/2017 to 04/17/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

MSCI Mexico Investable Mkt idx (EWW)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 472 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $51.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $52.90 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.99%
Volume: 3,252,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,562,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 03/30/2017 to 04/26/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

PowerShares Dynamic Biotech and Genome (PBE)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 316 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $43.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.63 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.82%
Volume: 154,100 shares. 3 month avg: 24,935 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 03/27/2017 to 04/21/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

SPDR Utilities Select Sector (XLU)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 397 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $51.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.81 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.96%
Volume: 9,420,400 shares. 3 month avg: 13,735,714 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/09/2017 to 04/27/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

VanEck Vectors Biotech (BBH)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 277 out of 603
4/27/17 close: $121.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $117.90 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.71%
Volume: 37,100 shares. 3 month avg: 47,891 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/27/2017 to 04/21/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top


Thursday 4/27/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by 0.0% or -0.26 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 626 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 351 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 275 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 125/219 or 57.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/82 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart shows a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern at LHR (left shoulder, head, right shoulder. Clever labels, yes? ).

The resulting move was a nice one, if you happened to trade the pattern.

Yesterday and today (Tuesday, Wednesday), a broadening formation, right angled and ascending appears on the far right of the chart, in red.

A review of the statistics says that they breakout downward 66% of the time. That makes sense to me. It looks like the upward move is taking a rest. And often when price moves horizontally for a period, it's a top. And that means price will drop.

Not always, mind you. This could just be a pause in another upward spurt.

$ $ $

I've seen a rat running around my yard. My neighbor says they often travel in pairs. He's trapped one but the other is still free.

I put out some rat poison because he's been leaving droppings in my garage, on one of my shelves, and on my wood pile.

I mixed in some wild rice with the poison. Did it work? No. He/she ate the rice and left the poison.

Smart. Have to admire that.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,743.34    
 Weekly S2  5,815.19  71.85   
 Monthly S1  5,884.28  69.09   
 Monthly Pivot  5,910.34  26.05   
 Weekly S1  5,920.21  9.87   
 Weekly Pivot  5,923.22  3.01   
 Daily S2  6,010.11  86.89   
 Daily S1  6,017.67  7.56   
 Low  6,021.72  4.05   
 Close  6,025.23  3.51   
 Open  6,028.12  2.89   
 Weekly R1  6,028.24  0.12   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  6,029.04  0.80   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily Pivot  6,029.28  0.24   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R2  6,031.25  1.97   
 50% Down from Intraday High  6,031.31  0.06   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly R2.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  6,033.57  2.26   
 Daily R1  6,036.84  3.27   
 High  6,040.89  4.05   
 Daily R2  6,048.45  7.56   
 Monthly R1  6,051.28  2.83   
 Monthly R2  6,077.34  26.05   

Wednesday 4/26/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Over the last week, the indices have powered higher, pulling up the indicator.

The indicator turned bullish over a week ago, as a the vertical green line shows. The thin blue line looks like it's peaked (100 is its max), so my guess is it'll turn lower. That means the upward move will likely lose momentum.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 21% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 23%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 45% on 06/27/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 508 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 22% on 06/27/2016.

As the chart shows the blue and red lines have responded to the general market's bullish spurt.

The red line appears to be most sensitive by jumping 2 percentage points (down, in this case, meaning fewer stocks are bearish).

I think yesterday's gap was an exhaustion gap, so we'll see the indices start their retrace today. Maybe not, of course. I can only guess like everyone else as to what will happen.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 4/25/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 1.1% or 216.13 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 355 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 206 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 149 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 135/229 or 59.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/64 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The recent downtrend, shown by the red line, was broken by the index when it pierced the line at B. The rise faltered there for a time, struggling to move higher.

You can think of the move higher as a measured move up chart pattern. I've written about that before. It's the ABCD pattern.

The belief with this pattern is that the CD move will approximate the AB move (which it did, and then some).

For those of you with a bearish outlook, expect the index to return to the corrective phase, BC. It probably won't happen in one day.

If you have a bullish outlook, the Dow futures are up 149 points about a half hour before today's open. So expect the index to coast higher today.

A third option is to combine the two. The index will rise at the open and then start to retrace and fill the CD gap. A return to the BC area will take a few days, maybe three.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  20,107.02    
 Weekly S2  20,331.09  224.07   
 Monthly S1  20,435.46  104.37   
 Weekly S1  20,547.49  112.03   
 Weekly Pivot  20,595.95  48.46   
 Daily S2  20,691.28  95.33   
 Monthly Pivot  20,707.98  16.70   
 Low  20,723.59  15.61   
 Open  20,723.59  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  20,727.59  4.00   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  20,749.80  22.21   
 50% Down from Intraday High  20,757.89  8.10   
 Daily Pivot  20,759.89  2.00   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  20,763.89  4.00   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  20,765.99  2.10   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  20,792.20  26.21   
 Daily R1  20,796.20  4.00   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  20,812.35  16.15   
 Daily R2  20,828.50  16.15   
 Weekly R2  20,860.81  32.31   
 Monthly R1  21,036.42  175.61   
 Monthly R2  21,308.94  272.53   

Monday 4/24/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

The chart shows a picture of the Dow utility index on the daily scale.

An ascending triangle, highlighted here in red, suggests a bullish turn for the index.

Why?

By the very nature of the triangle. They typically break out upward, so I'm looking for a rise in the stocks of utility companies. Just recognize that the breakout can be downward, too.

A close outside of the trendlines determines the breakout direction.

The height of the triangle at the start, added to an upward breakout price or subtracted from a downward breakout price, gives a target.

Tests performed for my book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy, pictured on the left, says that the pattern breaks out upward 64% of the time and downward 36% of the time. Price meets or exceeds the price target for upward breakouts 70% of the time and 55% for downward breakouts.

 

 

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 183.67 points.
Tuesday: Down 113.64 points.
Wednesday: Down 118.79 points.
Thursday: Up 174.22 points.
Friday: Down 30.95 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 94.51 points or 0.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 105.37 points or 1.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 19.7399 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.9% down from the high of 21,169.11 on 03/01/2017.
     4.4% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     0.4% down from the high of 5,936.39 on 04/05/2017.
     9.5% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     2.2% down from the high of 2,400.98 on 03/01/2017.
     4.6% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/21/2017, the CPI had:

6 bearish patterns,
15 bullish patterns,
307 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 71.4%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  20,455  20,502  20,551  20,598  20,648 
Weekly  20,259  20,403  20,524  20,668  20,789 
Monthly  20,035  20,291  20,636  20,892  21,237 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,338  2,343  2,350  2,355  2,361 
Weekly  2,319  2,334  2,348  2,363  2,376 
Monthly  2,289  2,319  2,352  2,382  2,416 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,890  5,900  5,910  5,920  5,930 
Weekly  5,777  5,844  5,885  5,952  5,993 
Monthly  5,705  5,808  5,872  5,975  6,039 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 42.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months down 11.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months down 11.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 45.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 26.3%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
21Triangle, symmetrical
12Head-and-shoulders top
11Triangle, descending
9Rectangle top
9Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
6Triple bottom
5Triangle, ascending
5Pipe top
5Head-and-shoulders bottom
5Pipe bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Human Resources2. Securities Brokerage
3. Electronics3. Human Resources
4. Semiconductor4. Semiconductor
5. Homebuilding5. Insurance (Life)
50. Petroleum (Integrated)50. Shoe
51. Toiletries/Cosmetics51. Retail Store
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment53. Toiletries/Cosmetics
54. Furn/Home Furnishings54. Petroleum (Producing)
55. Petroleum (Producing)55. Furn/Home Furnishings
56. Apparel56. Short ETFs
57. Short ETFs57. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 4/21/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 611 stocks searched, or 3.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISChannel      04/29/201604/20/2017Semiconductor
CLRPipe top      04/03/201704/10/2017Petroleum (Producing)
CYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/06/201704/17/2017Semiconductor
GDTriangle, ascending      03/27/201704/20/2017Aerospace/Defense
GESTriangle, symmetrical      03/16/201704/19/2017Apparel
HSYRectangle top      02/09/201704/20/2017Food Processing
TILETriangle, symmetrical      02/27/201704/20/2017Furn/Home Furnishings
KSSTriangle, symmetrical      03/17/201704/19/2017Retail Store
LZBDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/04/201704/17/2017Furn/Home Furnishings
MASTriangle, descending      03/07/201704/18/2017Building Materials
NBRPipe top      04/03/201704/10/2017Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NEUTriangle, ascending      03/17/201704/20/2017Chemical (Specialty)
PTENPipe top      04/03/201704/10/2017Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
RESPipe top      04/03/201704/10/2017Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SNPSRectangle top      02/22/201704/20/2017Computer Software and Svcs
TKRRectangle top      01/11/201704/20/2017Metal Fabricating
EWLRectangle top      03/21/201704/20/2017Investment Co. (Foreign)
PPATriangle, ascending      03/23/201704/19/2017Aerospace/Defense
PEJRectangle top      12/07/201604/20/2017Long ETFs
XLPBroadening top      03/01/201704/18/2017Household Products

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/13/2017 and 04/20/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 18 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $68.93
1 Month avg volatility: $1.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.22 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.90%
Volume: 406,300 shares. 3 month avg: 423,958 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 04/20/2017

Top

Continental Resources Inc. (CLR)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 568 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $43.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.76 or 8.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.10%
Volume: 2,208,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,599,872 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/03/2017 to 04/10/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Cypress Semiconductor (CY)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 59 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $14.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.02 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.16%
Volume: 5,777,300 shares. 3 month avg: 7,173,420 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/06/2017 to 04/17/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 97 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $188.13
1 Month avg volatility: $2.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $182.64 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.96%
Volume: 984,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,329,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/27/2017 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Guess Inc. (GES)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $11.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.64 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.71%
Volume: 1,497,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,696,962 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/16/2017 to 04/19/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Hershey Company, The (HSY)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 234 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $108.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $105.78 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.19%
Volume: 940,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,027,734 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/09/2017 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Interface, Inc. (TILE)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 215 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $19.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.90 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.43%
Volume: 414,100 shares. 3 month avg: 509,522 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/27/2017 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Kohls Corporation (KSS)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 520 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $40.76
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.30 or 8.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.46%
Volume: 4,854,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,406,482 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/17/2017 to 04/19/2017
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/05/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 07/06/2017.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 260 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $28.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.48 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.18%
Volume: 288,600 shares. 3 month avg: 367,929 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/04/2017 to 04/17/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Masco Corp. (MAS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 418 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $33.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.34 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.31%
Volume: 4,587,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,269,766 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/07/2017 to 04/18/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Nabors Industries, Ltd. (NBR)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 544 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $11.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.06 or 11.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -28.23%
Volume: 7,768,300 shares. 3 month avg: 6,490,949 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/03/2017 to 04/10/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

NewMarket Corp. (NEU)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 275 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $453.88
1 Month avg volatility: $6.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $437.12 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.09%
Volume: 17,500 shares. 3 month avg: 35,357 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/17/2017 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. (PTEN)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $22.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.31 or 8.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.60%
Volume: 3,190,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,041,734 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/03/2017 to 04/10/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

RPC Inc (RES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 513 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $17.87
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.07 or 6.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.79%
Volume: 1,923,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,169,772 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/03/2017 to 04/10/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Synopsys Inc (SNPS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 115 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $72.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.67 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.28%
Volume: 1,084,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,382,228 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/22/2017 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Timken Co., The (TKR)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 71 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $44.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.54 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.96%
Volume: 776,600 shares. 3 month avg: 866,049 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 01/11/2017 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

MSCI Switzerland Index (EWL)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 336 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $32.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.78 or 1.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.16%
Volume: 620,100 shares. 3 month avg: 647,689 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/21/2017 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

PowerShares Aerospace and Defense (PPA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 198 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $43.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.68 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.15%
Volume: 71,700 shares. 3 month avg: 107,688 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/23/2017 to 04/19/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

PowerShares Dynamic Leisure (PEJ)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 250 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $41.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.02 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.65%
Volume: 22,600 shares. 3 month avg: 33,269 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/07/2016 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector (XLP)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 374 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $55.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.90 or 1.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.67%
Volume: 9,736,600 shares. 3 month avg: 10,586,554 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 03/01/2017 to 04/18/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top


Thursday 4/20/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.2% or 13.56 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 647 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 374 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 273 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 124/218 or 56.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/82 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart looks complicated, so lets go through it step by step.

The magenta pattern (LHS) is a head-and-shoulders top. The height of the pattern from the head to the neckline directly below, if subtracted from the magenta neckline, gives a price target. The index hit and exceeded the target the next day, at A.

Another head-and-shoulders bottom appears at LS-Head-RS for left shoulder, head, right shoulder. The green line is the traditional neckline. However, it slopes upward, meaning you'll get into the trade late. So I use a close above the red neckline to signal a breakout (the second A on the chart). In this case, the neckline breakout didn't affect entry due to the gap.

Price gapped higher at today's (Wednesday's) open but then collapsed to B. This retrace is a typical pullback. It suggests we'll move higher on Thursday. There's still a chance the index will rise far enough to meet the head-and-shoulders target.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,689.27    
 Weekly S2  5,755.98  66.71   
 Monthly S1  5,776.15  20.17   
 Weekly S1  5,809.50  33.35   
 Daily S2  5,833.01  23.51   
 Daily S1  5,848.02  15.01   
 Monthly Pivot  5,856.27  8.25   
 Low  5,856.34  0.07   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  5,858.68  2.34   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Close  5,863.03  4.35   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,870.99  7.96   
 Daily Pivot  5,871.35  0.36   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  5,874.43  3.08   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,875.51  1.08   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,880.03  4.52   
 Daily R1  5,886.36  6.33   
 High  5,894.68  8.32   
 Daily R2  5,909.69  15.01   
 Weekly R1  5,912.20  2.51   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  5,943.15  30.95   
 Weekly R2  5,961.38  18.23   
 Monthly R2  6,023.27  61.89   

Wednesday 4/19/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bullish signal that appeared last week has disappeared, replaced by the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart.

That's not an anomaly. The indicator can change its mind for up to a week.

Bottom line: The chart is bearish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 22%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 45% on 06/27/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 508 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 22% on 06/27/2016.

This chart is also bearish. Look at the red line. It took a big dip down but recovered. It's still lower this week than last.

The blue line is unchanged. Together, I believe they are bearish, so I expect this downward retrace of the general market to continue.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 4/18/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.9% or 183.67 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 496 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 292 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 204 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 135/228 or 59.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/64 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

Notice how the index hit resistance following the red trendline. The index pierced it on Monday with gusto, pushing higher off Thursday's low in a nice run up.

This morning, about 50 minutes before the open, the futures are down and that surprises me. After piercing the long trendline, which has plenty of touches (the index touches the line a lot), I would expect more strength as the bulls overpower the bears. However pullbacks often occur, so maybe that's what we'll be seeing this morning.

Another factor weighs on the issue. I drew two green lines marking what I believe to be overhead resistance. It's possible that the index is being scared off by that resistance.

I thought that we would see the index move higher today (Tuesday), into the green band. Based on the Dow futures value (-66), I'll be looking for the index to drop at the open and then recover throughout the day. That's a guess, of course.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  20,095.97    
 Weekly S2  20,316.42  220.45   
 Monthly S1  20,366.44  50.02   
 Daily S2  20,429.03  62.59   
 Weekly S1  20,476.67  47.64   
 Low  20,484.75  8.08   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Open  20,484.75  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  20,532.98  48.23   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  20,545.74  12.76   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  20,564.58  18.84   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  20,583.42  18.84   
 Daily Pivot  20,588.69  5.27   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  20,613.50  24.81   
 Close  20,636.92  23.42   
 High  20,644.41  7.49   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot  20,683.28  38.87   
 Daily R1  20,692.64  9.36   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily R2  20,748.35  55.72   
 Weekly R1  20,773.75  25.40   
 Weekly R2  20,910.58  136.83   
 Monthly R1  20,953.75  43.17   
 Monthly R2  21,270.59  316.83   

Friday 4/14/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 29 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 611 stocks searched, or 4.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISChannel      04/29/201604/13/2017Semiconductor
APDTriangle, symmetrical      03/27/201704/12/2017Chemical (Diversified)
ADSBroadening top      03/01/201704/13/2017Information Services
BMIHead-and-shoulders top      03/17/201704/07/2017Precision Instrument
BKHRising wedge      03/01/201704/13/2017Electric Utility (West)
CALMPipe bottom      03/27/201704/03/2017Food Processing
CNPRectangle top      03/07/201704/13/2017Electric Utility (Central)
CCRNTriangle, symmetrical      03/17/201704/13/2017Human Resources
EQTBroadening wedge, descending      12/28/201604/13/2017Natural Gas (Diversified)
GNWRectangle top      02/16/201704/10/2017Insurance (Life)
GILDFalling wedge      03/14/201704/13/2017Biotechnology
HSCBroadening bottom      03/14/201704/13/2017Diversified Co.
HETriangle, ascending      02/10/201704/13/2017Electric Utility (West)
HSYRectangle top      02/09/201704/13/2017Food Processing
IPGRectangle top      02/13/201704/13/2017Advertising
KBHRising wedge      03/14/201704/13/2017Homebuilding
NFGTriple top      03/15/201704/07/2017Natural Gas (Diversified)
OMCRectangle top      12/20/201604/13/2017Advertising
PFETriangle, descending      03/08/201704/13/2017Drug
QCOMTriangle, descending      03/03/201704/10/2017Telecom. Equipment
SNPSRectangle top      02/22/201704/13/2017Computer Software and Svcs
TKRRectangle top      01/11/201704/13/2017Metal Fabricating
TGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/31/201704/11/2017Chemical (Specialty)
WLKDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/17/201704/10/2017Chemical (Basic)
YHOOTriangle, symmetrical      03/21/201704/07/2017Internet
IHETriangle, symmetrical      03/21/201704/13/2017Drug
EWTBroadening top, right-angled and descending      03/21/201704/13/2017Investment Co. (Foreign)
PEJRectangle top      12/07/201604/13/2017Long ETFs
IEVTriangle, descending      03/21/201704/13/2017Investment Co. (Foreign)
XHBTriangle, symmetrical      03/16/201704/13/2017Homebuilding

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/06/2017 and 04/13/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 37 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $64.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.79 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.72%
Volume: 337,800 shares. 3 month avg: 421,051 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 04/13/2017

Top

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 429 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $134.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $130.89 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.62%
Volume: 625,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,454,069 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/27/2017 to 04/12/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Alliance Data Systems Corp (ADS)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 216 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $234.91
1 Month avg volatility: $4.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $247.54 or 5.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.81%
Volume: 480,300 shares. 3 month avg: 594,248 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 03/01/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Badger Meter Inc. (BMI)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 321 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $35.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.38 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.33%
Volume: 63,000 shares. 3 month avg: 137,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/17/2017 to 04/07/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Top

Black Hills Corp (BKH)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 157 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $67.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.67 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.63%
Volume: 224,300 shares. 3 month avg: 355,188 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/01/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 424 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $38.58
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.84 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.68%
Volume: 263,200 shares. 3 month avg: 407,832 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/27/2017 to 04/03/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 70 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $27.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.16 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.39%
Volume: 1,957,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,002,974 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/07/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Cross Country Healthcare Inc (CCRN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 169 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $14.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.07 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.74%
Volume: 160,500 shares. 3 month avg: 214,143 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/17/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Equitable Resources, Inc (EQT)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 534 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $62.62
1 Month avg volatility: $1.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.68 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.25%
Volume: 1,804,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,060,245 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 12/28/2016 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

Top

Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 577 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $4.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.71 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.99%
Volume: 5,560,800 shares. 3 month avg: 8,336,022 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/16/2017 to 04/10/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 524 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $66.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.47 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.12%
Volume: 5,947,300 shares. 3 month avg: 10,121,562 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 03/14/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 126 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $11.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.74 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.24%
Volume: 348,700 shares. 3 month avg: 501,931 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 03/14/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 140 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $33.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.73 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.60%
Volume: 349,200 shares. 3 month avg: 542,854 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/10/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Hershey Company, The (HSY)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 195 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $108.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $105.93 or 2.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.61%
Volume: 571,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,035,357 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/09/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 297 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $24.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.80 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.83%
Volume: 4,315,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,844,268 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/13/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

KB Home Corp. (KBH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 66 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $20.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $21.32 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 27.07%
Volume: 3,139,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,791,118 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/14/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

National Fuel Gas (NFG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 432 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $53.32
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $56.21 or 5.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.86%
Volume: 947,300 shares. 3 month avg: 592,365 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 03/15/2017 to 04/07/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Top

Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 409 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $84.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $82.49 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.76%
Volume: 1,502,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,510,918 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/20/2016 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 404 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $33.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.69 or 2.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.31%
Volume: 11,498,100 shares. 3 month avg: 24,531,846 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/08/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 566 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $52.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.35 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -19.03%
Volume: 16,971,600 shares. 3 month avg: 13,102,434 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/03/2017 to 04/10/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Synopsys Inc (SNPS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 127 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $70.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.97 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.51%
Volume: 1,031,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,341,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/22/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Timken Co., The (TKR)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 88 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $42.60
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.29 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.30%
Volume: 600,900 shares. 3 month avg: 892,720 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 01/11/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Tredegar Corp (TG)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 543 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $16.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.32 or 11.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -31.67%
Volume: 50,500 shares. 3 month avg: 60,192 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/31/2017 to 04/11/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Westlake Chemical Corp (WLK)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 145 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $62.71
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.30 or 8.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.00%
Volume: 1,190,800 shares. 3 month avg: 862,483 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/17/2017 to 04/10/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 256 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $46.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.37 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.28%
Volume: 3,747,700 shares. 3 month avg: 6,579,428 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/21/2017 to 04/07/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

DJ US Pharmaceuticals index fund (IHE)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 380 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $151.06
1 Month avg volatility: $1.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $147.62 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.82%
Volume: 4,300 shares. 3 month avg: 28,489 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/21/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 355 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $33.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.68 or 1.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.97%
Volume: 3,890,400 shares. 3 month avg: 4,215,609 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 03/21/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Top

PowerShares Dynamic Leisure (PEJ)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 232 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $40.06
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.36 or 1.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.10%
Volume: 5,300 shares. 3 month avg: 37,283 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/07/2016 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

S and P Europe 350 Index fund (IEV)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 307 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $41.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $42.11 or 1.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.73%
Volume: 423,800 shares. 3 month avg: 802,892 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/21/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 262 out of 603
4/13/17 close: $36.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.81 or 2.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.42%
Volume: 849,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,645,343 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/16/2017 to 04/13/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top


Thursday 4/13/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.5% or -30.61 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 327 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 156 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 171 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 124/218 or 56.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/81 or 50.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart shows a triple top shown here as TTT. The height of the pattern subtracted from where the index closes below the lowest valley between the three peaks gives a target.

The index reached that target today.

Today, a double bottom appears as BB. This one also reaches its target (the height added to the breakout price).

Those are two trades using chart patterns that would have made money if you traded them properly.

It looks easy, doesn't it?

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,680.31    
 Monthly S1  5,758.24  77.92   
 Weekly S2  5,795.14  36.90   
 Daily S2  5,807.25  12.11   
 Weekly S1  5,815.65  8.40   
 Daily S1  5,821.70  6.05   
 Low  5,830.44  8.74   
 Close  5,836.16  5.72   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,844.82  8.66   
 Daily Pivot  5,844.90  0.07   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  5,847.31  2.42   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,849.27  1.95   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,853.71  4.44   
 Daily R1  5,859.35  5.65   
 Open  5,863.59  4.24   
 High  5,868.09  4.50   
 Weekly Pivot  5,876.02  7.93   
 Daily R2  5,882.55  6.53   
 Weekly R1  5,896.53  13.98   
 Monthly R1  5,925.24  28.71   
 Weekly R2  5,956.90  31.66   
 Monthly R2  6,014.31  57.41   

Wednesday 4/12/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator turned bullish several days ago as the vertical green line shows (far right on the chart).

I don't believe the signal. I think it will disappear (which can happen with this indicator for up to a week after the signal) because the market is moving sideways now (think whipsaw). However, it's possible that this is an advance warning of the start of a bullish move.

I still expect the markets to retrace more because after such a sustained upward move (the rise since the Nov low), we either have to retrace more or move sideways for an extended period.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 22% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 21%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 45% on 06/27/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 508 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 12%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 22% on 06/27/2016.

The downward trend continues this week just as it did last week. The decline since March is noticeable on both red and blue lines.

I think it suggests that the above bullish CPI signal will disappear. Clearly the stocks I follow in my database are suffering.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 4/11/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.0% or 1.92 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1253 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 667 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 586 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 135/227 or 59.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/64 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

This is a snapshot you don't see often. It shows a large complex head-and-shoulders top chart pattern. I marked the shoulders with an S. In this version of the pattern, there are two left shoulders, one head, and two right shoulders.

So far, the pattern has not confirmed as valid because the index hasn't closed below the green neckline. Without validation, it's not a chart pattern.

If you were to shave off the highest peak (the head) and lowest trough, you'd have a nice long rectangle top chart pattern. The height of the pattern gives the target when you add or subtract the height to/from the breakout price. The breakout price is where the index closes either above or below the associated horizontal line.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  20,076.43    
 Weekly S2  20,318.10  241.67   
 Monthly S1  20,367.23  49.13   
 Weekly S1  20,488.06  120.83   
 Daily S2  20,538.93  50.87   
 Daily S1  20,598.48  59.54   
 Low  20,614.86  16.38   
 Close  20,658.02  43.16   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  20,666.61  8.59   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  20,668.22  1.61   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  20,674.40  6.18   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  20,682.60  8.19   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  20,687.78  5.18   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  20,698.58  10.80   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Monthly Pivot  20,703.59  5.01   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  20,733.95  30.35   
 High  20,750.33  16.38   
 Daily R2  20,809.87  59.54   
 Weekly R1  20,857.74  47.87   
 Monthly R1  20,994.39  136.65   
 Weekly R2  21,057.46  63.07   
 Monthly R2  21,330.75  273.29   

Monday 4/10/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 index on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The ABCD move looks to me like a measured move up. Yes, the corrective phase, BC, isn't that pronounced, but it's there.

In my book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy, it says that 57% of the time, a stock will retrace back to the corrective phase, BC, or even keep going down (15% of the time).

If that interpretation is correct, then look for the index to move below E.

Another interpretation is that the retrace has finished with the drop at E and is now back on its way up to meet the peak at D.

That second interpretation could be the more likely one if you believe the forecast. It shows weakness extending into early April followed by a strong move up to a summer peak.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 13.01 points.
Tuesday: Up 39.03 points.
Wednesday: Down 41.09 points.
Thursday: Up 14.8 points.
Friday: Down 6.85 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 7.12 points or 0.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 33.93 points or 0.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 7.18 points or 0.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.4% down from the high of 21,169.11 on 03/01/2017.
     5.0% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     1.0% down from the high of 5,936.39 on 04/05/2017.
     8.9% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     1.9% down from the high of 2,400.98 on 03/01/2017.
     4.9% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/07/2017, the CPI had:

12 bearish patterns,
6 bullish patterns,
302 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 33.3%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  20,544  20,600  20,663  20,719  20,782 
Weekly  20,317  20,487  20,687  20,856  21,057 
Monthly  20,076  20,366  20,703  20,993  21,330 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,344  2,350  2,357  2,363  2,370 
Weekly  2,326  2,341  2,360  2,374  2,393 
Monthly  2,288  2,322  2,356  2,390  2,424 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,839  5,858  5,875  5,895  5,912 
Weekly  5,809  5,843  5,890  5,924  5,971 
Monthly  5,694  5,786  5,861  5,953  6,028 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.5%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 11.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.2%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 11.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 27.8%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 26.3%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 6 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
23Triangle, symmetrical
14Double Top, Adam and Adam
13Head-and-shoulders top
9Triangle, descending
6Channel
6Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
6Rectangle top
5Double Top, Eve and Adam
4Pipe bottom
4Triple bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Securities Brokerage2. Securities Brokerage
3. Human Resources3. Human Resources
4. Semiconductor4. Semiconductor
5. Insurance (Life)5. Insurance (Life)
50. Shoe50. Biotechnology
51. Retail Store51. Retail Store
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Toiletries/Cosmetics
53. Toiletries/Cosmetics53. Natural Gas (Diversified)
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Furn/Home Furnishings
55. Furn/Home Furnishings55. Petroleum (Producing)
56. Short ETFs56. Apparel
57. Apparel57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 4/7/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 19 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 611 stocks searched, or 3.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISChannel      04/29/201604/06/2017Semiconductor
AWITriangle, symmetrical      03/03/201704/06/2017Building Materials
CHSBroadening bottom      03/09/201704/05/2017Apparel
COSTTriangle, symmetrical      03/14/201704/05/2017Retail Store
CYPipe top      03/20/201703/27/2017Semiconductor
EXPTriangle, descending      03/09/201704/06/2017Cement and Aggregates
EXCDiamond top      03/08/201704/06/2017Electric Utility (East)
GEBroadening top, right-angled and descending      02/23/201704/06/2017Diversified Co.
GNWRectangle top      02/16/201704/06/2017Insurance (Life)
HSYRectangle top      02/09/201704/06/2017Food Processing
IPGRectangle top      02/13/201704/06/2017Advertising
NITriangle, symmetrical      03/02/201704/05/2017Electric Utility (Central)
OMCRectangle top      12/20/201604/06/2017Advertising
PHMTriangle, symmetrical      03/15/201704/06/2017Homebuilding
RLIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/20/201703/31/2017Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
RESPipe bottom      03/20/201703/27/2017Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SNPSRectangle top      02/22/201704/06/2017Computer Software and Svcs
TXNTriangle, symmetrical      03/17/201704/05/2017Semiconductor
TKRRectangle top      01/11/201704/06/2017Metal Fabricating
EWKTriangle, descending      03/20/201704/06/2017Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/30/2017 and 04/06/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 22 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $66.66
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.91 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.75%
Volume: 367,000 shares. 3 month avg: 420,797 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 04/06/2017

Top

Armstrong World Industries (AWI)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 289 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $44.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.63 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.54%
Volume: 397,400 shares. 3 month avg: 591,282 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/03/2017 to 04/06/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Chicos FAS Inc. (CHS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 288 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $13.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.05 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.99%
Volume: 2,886,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,492,468 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2017 to 04/05/2017
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 198 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $170.02
1 Month avg volatility: $1.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $166.26 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.19%
Volume: 3,304,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,313,966 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/14/2017 to 04/05/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Cypress Semiconductor (CY)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 215 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $13.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.08 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.21%
Volume: 9,043,500 shares. 3 month avg: 6,879,103 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 03/20/2017 to 03/27/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 89 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $95.33
1 Month avg volatility: $2.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $100.71 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.25%
Volume: 387,900 shares. 3 month avg: 656,535 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/09/2017 to 04/06/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Exelon Corp. (EXC)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 203 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $36.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.35 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.20%
Volume: 5,709,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,009,643 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 03/08/2017 to 04/06/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

General Electric Co (GE)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 416 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $29.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.22 or 2.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.28%
Volume: 21,514,100 shares. 3 month avg: 30,092,042 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 02/23/2017 to 04/06/2017
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Top

Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 570 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $4.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.67 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.30%
Volume: 5,624,600 shares. 3 month avg: 8,078,306 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/16/2017 to 04/06/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Hershey Company, The (HSY)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 174 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $108.88
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $106.35 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.27%
Volume: 535,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,040,649 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/09/2017 to 04/06/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 254 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $24.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.47 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.06%
Volume: 3,833,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,811,720 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/13/2017 to 04/06/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Nisource Inc. (NI)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 364 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $23.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.02 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.68%
Volume: 2,768,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,946,155 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/02/2017 to 04/05/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 389 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $85.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $82.60 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.53%
Volume: 1,844,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,488,472 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/20/2016 to 04/06/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 185 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $23.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.42 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.09%
Volume: 6,103,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,402,362 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/15/2017 to 04/06/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

RLI Corp (RLI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 553 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $57.66
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.92 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.66%
Volume: 125,900 shares. 3 month avg: 178,940 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/20/2017 to 03/31/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

RPC Inc (RES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 241 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $19.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.97 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.02%
Volume: 2,404,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,081,169 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/20/2017 to 03/27/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Synopsys Inc (SNPS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 121 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $71.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $69.46 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.20%
Volume: 1,232,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,329,371 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/22/2017 to 04/06/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 195 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $80.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $77.37 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.77%
Volume: 4,177,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,271,102 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/17/2017 to 04/05/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Timken Co., The (TKR)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 94 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $43.65
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.65 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.95%
Volume: 1,546,000 shares. 3 month avg: 919,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 01/11/2017 to 04/06/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

MSCI Belgium Investable Mkt Idx (EWK)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 446 out of 603
4/6/17 close: $18.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.01 or 1.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.14%
Volume: 181,200 shares. 3 month avg: 98,012 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/20/2017 to 04/06/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top


Thursday 4/6/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.6% or -34.13 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 305 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 133 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 172 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 56.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 124/218 or 56.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/80 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A symmetrical triangle appears on the chart highlighted in red. The height of this added to the breakout price sets the target. The index easily exceeds the target.

The AB peaks form an Eve & Eve double top. This confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index drops to C, a close below the valley between the two peaks.

Before the market open, the Dow futures are up a bit, nothing to get excited about. Whether this double top will lead a decline to 5780 (measure rule target), we'll have to wait and see.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,695.31    
 Weekly S2  5,695.47  0.17   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S2.
 Monthly S1  5,779.89  84.42   
 Weekly S1  5,779.98  0.08   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Daily S2  5,805.58  25.60   
 Daily S1  5,835.03  29.45   
 Weekly Pivot  5,853.89  18.86   
 Monthly Pivot  5,853.98  0.08   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  5,856.26  2.28   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Close  5,864.48  8.22   
 Daily Pivot  5,885.71  21.23   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,886.87  1.16   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,896.33  9.46   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,905.78  9.46   
 Open  5,911.92  6.14   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  5,915.16  3.24   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  5,936.39  21.23   
 Weekly R1  5,938.40  2.01   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Monthly R1  5,938.56  0.17   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  5,965.84  27.28   
 Weekly R2  6,012.31  46.47   
 Monthly R2  6,012.65  0.33   Yes! The Monthly R2 is close to the Weekly R2.

Wednesday 4/5/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The direction of the indicator is clear with the most recent signal being bearish (the vertical red line on the far right).

If you connect the indicator's peaks since February, you'll see that they trend lower. I highlight the trend with magenta line A.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 21% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 22%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 45% on 06/27/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 509 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 22% on 06/27/2016.

This chart shows a bullish upturn in the stocks I follow in my database.

Both lines moved higher a smidgen from a week ago. That bullish move, of course, conflicts with the bearish indications of the prior chart.

I think, but it's a guess, that the bullish numbers above are just a retrace in a longer term downtrend.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 4/4/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.1% or -13.01 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1289 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 666 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 623 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 134/226 or 59.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/64 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

A line of resistance appears as a horizontal ceiling of red on the chart (C).

I show a line of support as a magenta, up-sloping line. The two form an ascending triangle. This one breaks out downward at B.

The height of the triangle at its tallest (near C) subtracted from the breakout price (B) gives a target. When the index dropped to D, it came very close to meeting the target.

Now, the index has pulled back (A) to the breakout price. My inclination is to believe the index will close lower again on Tuesday, but the above probabilities say I'm wrong.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  19,987.73    
 Weekly S2  20,264.62  276.89   
 Monthly S1  20,318.97  54.35   
 Daily S2  20,445.60  126.63   
 Weekly S1  20,457.41  11.81   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  20,517.82  60.41   
 Daily S1  20,547.91  30.09   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  20,584.49  36.58   
 50% Down from Intraday High  20,605.08  20.59   
 Weekly Pivot  20,605.60  0.52   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  20,620.12  14.53   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  20,625.67  5.55   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  20,650.21  24.54   
 Open  20,665.17  14.96   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  20,692.34  27.17   
 Daily R1  20,722.43  30.09   
 Monthly Pivot  20,744.04  21.61   
 Daily R2  20,794.64  50.60   
 Weekly R1  20,798.39  3.75   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  20,946.58  148.18   
 Monthly R1  21,075.28  128.70   
 Monthly R2  21,500.35  425.07   

Monday 4/3/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow prediction on the daily scale.

The red line is the forecast made at the start of the year.

It's not a guess. Rather, it's based on historical movement of the Dow industrials. Essentially, you take the average of the Dow for each year ending in a seven and plot the result, going back in time as far as data allows. The red line is the result.

I mapped the Dow so far this year with the prediction.

Notice how the forecast peaked first at A, well before the Dow, B. The forecast says weakness will appear from A to C. The Dow is in the process of following the forecast by retracing.

After the Dow reaches it's low sometime this month (C), we should see strength appear which will take the market up to the high at D.

Although this chart serves as a guide of what might happen, it's rarely accurate. Last year was an exception, though. It nailed the year end price almost exactly.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 45.74 points.
Tuesday: Up 150.52 points.
Wednesday: Down 42.18 points.
Thursday: Up 69.17 points.
Friday: Down 65.27 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 66.5 points or 0.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 83 points or 1.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 18.74 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.4% down from the high of 21,169.11 on 03/01/2017.
     5.0% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     0.3% down from the high of 5,928.06 on 03/21/2017.
     9.5% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     1.6% down from the high of 2,400.98 on 03/01/2017.
     5.2% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/31/2017, the CPI had:

19 bearish patterns,
37 bullish patterns,
464 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 66.1%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  20,620  20,642  20,682  20,704  20,744 
Weekly  20,269  20,466  20,610  20,807  20,951 
Monthly  19,992  20,328  20,748  21,084  21,505 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,357  2,360  2,365  2,368  2,373 
Weekly  2,304  2,333  2,352  2,381  2,400 
Monthly  2,283  2,323  2,362  2,402  2,441 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,888  5,900  5,914  5,926  5,940 
Weekly  5,711  5,811  5,870  5,970  6,028 
Monthly  5,711  5,811  5,870  5,970  6,028 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 42.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 21.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 21.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 45.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 5 months up 12.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
22Triangle, symmetrical
20Double Top, Adam and Adam
15Head-and-shoulders top
8Triangle, descending
6Channel
5Rising wedge
5Double Top, Eve and Adam
4Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
4Triangle, ascending
4Double Top, Eve and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Securities Brokerage2. Semiconductor
3. Human Resources3. Securities Brokerage
4. Semiconductor4. Human Resources
5. Insurance (Life)5. Electronics
50. Biotechnology50. Retail Store
51. Retail Store51. Toiletries/Cosmetics
52. Toiletries/Cosmetics52. Retail (Special Lines)
53. Natural Gas (Diversified)53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Furn/Home Furnishings54. Natural Gas (Diversified)
55. Petroleum (Producing)55. Short ETFs
56. Apparel56. Furn/Home Furnishings
57. Short ETFs57. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.