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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Industrials (^DJI):
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As of 11/22/2017
23,526 -64.65 -0.3%
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758 -0.24 0.0%
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23,700 or 22,800 by 12/01/2017
9,300 or 9,800 by 12/01/2017
800 or 750 by 12/01/2017
7,000 or 6,500 by 12/01/2017
2,625 or 2,540 by 12/01/2017

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April 2016 Headlines


Archives


Friday 4/29/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 641 stocks searched, or 2.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 13 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACNTriangle, symmetrical      04/01/201604/28/2016IT Services
AMDFlag, high and tight      02/24/201604/22/2016Semiconductor
ATWTriangle, symmetrical      01/05/201604/28/2016Petroleum (Producing)
BMSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/17/201604/27/2016Packaging and Container
CEBBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      03/21/201604/26/2016Information Services
CNCPipe bottom      04/11/201604/18/2016Medical Services
XRAYTriangle, symmetrical      03/24/201604/28/2016Medical Supplies
EIGITriangle, symmetrical      03/04/201604/28/2016E-Commerce
FLIRTriple top      03/23/201604/25/2016Aerospace/Defense
FDPRectangle top      03/07/201604/26/2016Food Processing
HEDiamond top      03/21/201604/28/2016Electric Utility (West)
HDHead-and-shoulders top      04/04/201604/27/2016Retail Building Supply
HURCTriangle, ascending      03/31/201604/27/2016Machinery
INFNDead-cat bounce      04/28/201604/28/2016Telecom. Equipment
IVCDead-cat bounce      04/28/201604/28/2016Medical Supplies
LZBTriangle, symmetrical      03/24/201604/28/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
MYLTriple top      03/10/201604/22/2016Drug
NOVPipe bottom      04/11/201604/18/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PANWPipe bottom      04/11/201604/18/2016Computer Software and Svcs
SERectangle top      03/01/201604/22/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TJXTriangle, symmetrical      03/31/201604/28/2016Retail Store

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/21/2016 and 04/28/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accenture plc (ACN)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 240 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $114.33
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $111.14 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.41%
Volume: 2,028,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,107,045 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/01/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 5 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $3.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.25 or 10.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.78%
Volume: 20,221,200 shares. 3 month avg: 15,668,492 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/24/2016 to 04/22/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Atwood Oceanics Inc. (ATW)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 615 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $9.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.73 or 20.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.50%
Volume: 5,449,300 shares. 3 month avg: 4,849,846 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/05/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Bemis Co Inc (BMS)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 140 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $50.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $52.84 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.31%
Volume: 2,436,700 shares. 3 month avg: 853,498 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/17/2016 to 04/27/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

CEB Inc (CEB)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 554 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $63.37
1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $67.37 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.23%
Volume: 306,000 shares. 3 month avg: 255,071 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 03/21/2016 to 04/26/2016
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top

Centene Corp (CNC)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 241 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $63.62
1 Month avg volatility: $1.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.08 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.33%
Volume: 2,710,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,076,995 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/11/2016 to 04/18/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Dentsply International, Inc. (XRAY)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 292 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $60.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.36 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.85%
Volume: 997,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,124,723 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/24/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Endurance International Group Holdings (EIGI)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 576 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $11.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.82 or 11.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.56%
Volume: 371,800 shares. 3 month avg: 496,652 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/04/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 66 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $30.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.69 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.55%
Volume: 1,101,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,435 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 03/23/2016 to 04/25/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Top

Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 361 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $43.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.66 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.60%
Volume: 159,000 shares. 3 month avg: 176,178 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/07/2016 to 04/26/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 139 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $32.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.56 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.99%
Volume: 188,800 shares. 3 month avg: 285,563 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 03/21/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Home Depot, Inc (HD)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 181 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $132.73
1 Month avg volatility: $1.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $138.96 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.36%
Volume: 5,551,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,084,449 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/04/2016 to 04/27/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Top

Hurco Companies Inc. (HURC)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 53 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $32.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.67 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.10%
Volume: 15,600 shares. 3 month avg: 19,911 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/31/2016 to 04/27/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 620 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $12.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.99 or 16.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -33.75%
Volume: 20,427,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,556,843 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 04/28/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 619 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $11.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.03 or 27.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -36.69%
Volume: 2,257,300 shares. 3 month avg: 510,677 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 04/28/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 468 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $26.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.87 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.67%
Volume: 277,000 shares. 3 month avg: 377,889 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/24/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Mylan Laboratories Inc. (MYL)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 408 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $42.60
1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.81 or 9.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -21.21%
Volume: 8,654,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,882,675 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 03/10/2016 to 04/22/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/11/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/12/2016 and a 38% chance by 08/11/2016.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Top

National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 475 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $33.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.38 or 17.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.16%
Volume: 16,748,100 shares. 3 month avg: 7,571,448 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/11/2016 to 04/18/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Palto Alto Networks Inc (PANW)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 445 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $151.44
1 Month avg volatility: $4.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $141.78 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.02%
Volume: 1,539,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,278,094 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/11/2016 to 04/18/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Spectra Energy Corp (SE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 135 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $31.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.87 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.37%
Volume: 3,181,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,070,834 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/01/2016 to 04/22/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

TJX Companies Inc (TJX)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 224 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $76.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.76 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.43%
Volume: 1,691,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,161,562 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/31/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top


Thursday 4/28/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.5% or -25.14 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 320 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 153 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 167 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 104/180 or 57.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/72 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A double bottom at AB appears during the session. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above C, the peak between the two bottoms.

The height of the pattern from A (lowest bottom) to C added to C is supposed to be the target. It's hard to tell if the index hit the target or not. It was close, though.

It appears that the index is throwing back to C, the top of the double bottom. After that, I would expect the index to rise.

That is what typically happens.

If it continues to drop instead, look for it to find support at AB.

$ $ $

I received several emails regarding my eye problems. I didn't even know about ophthalmologists (eye MDs), so that will be my first visit.

Thanks to all of you who sent suggestions.

And the weather was mild last night. Lots of lightening, some wind and rain, but that's about it. No damage to my property, but storms are predicted for the next week.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,621.19    
 Monthly S1  4,742.17  120.97   
 Weekly S2  4,804.19  62.03   
 Daily S2  4,807.61  3.42   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Low  4,826.38  18.77   
 Weekly S1  4,833.67  7.29   
 Daily S1  4,835.38  1.71   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,844.15  8.78   
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,849.65  5.49   
 Daily Pivot  4,854.14  4.50   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,855.14  0.99   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  4,855.38  0.24   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  4,855.74  0.36   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Close  4,863.14  7.40   
 High  4,872.91  9.77   
 Daily R1  4,881.91  9.00   
 Daily R2  4,900.67  18.77   
 Weekly Pivot  4,901.49  0.82   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R1  4,930.97  29.47   
 Monthly R1  4,976.72  45.75   
 Weekly R2  4,998.79  22.08   
 Monthly R2  5,090.29  91.50   

Wednesday 4/27/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator which made a strong plunge just yesterday has recovered. The reason for this is how the indicator is constructed. Signals can and do change for up to a week.

The chart shows the indicator remains bullish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 40% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 41%.
The fewest was 21% on 05/01/2015.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 538 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 13% on 05/18/2015.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The numbers tell the story just as the chart does. The red line is improving, showing fewer stocks in bear market territory.

The blue line is flat this week, meaning the average stock in my database is down 20% from its peak, the same as last week.

I am cautious about these findings. It could be that the upward momentum is slowing and that we'll see a downturn. I've been seeing signs of slowing for a while now, however.

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The weather this evening has a big risk of large (2") hail. Hope it doesn't take out my roof. Fortunately, the risk of a tornado is diminished and yet there are warnings to the west of here (getting closer).

$ $ $

A month ago, my optometrist found that two veins in my eyes had burst (one in each eye, but not damage). One was serious because it was close to the optic nerve. If cells can't get blood, they die and you lose sight. This has two causes, according to her: a spike in glucose or high blood pressure.

I went to my family doctor (a physician's assistant, really). She confirmed that blood pressure was not the cause. My glucose was normal according to their phone message. However, looking at my blood test revealed that fasting glucose (where you don't eat anything for 8 hours) was abnormal (normal is 99 or below and I hit 100 and that was after fasting for 12 hours. I'm not fat either: 147 pounds at 5' 9", below my target of the low 150s). Those of you that follow this blog know that in the summer, I ride my bicycle at a fast pace, often over 20 mph. That's not bad for a guy approaching 60.

So I talked to a registered dietitian to get my diet in order. I feel better about it now.

This morning, I had another visit with my optometrist. She did some research on my problem and said that another cause could be low blood pressure. Yeah, that's me.

I don't have any symptoms, such as feeling dizzy when standing, but my BP readings are low, with the diastolic (bottom number) often below 60. The rule is below 90/60 means low BP.

The problem is that the eyeball pressure is higher than blood pressure. If the imbalance is large, you'll start busting veins and could possible go blind.

So, all of this has me concerned, especially when my optometrist said, "You probably won't go blind in the next three months." Jeepers. I didn't even think that was a possibility.

Being single, I can't imagine what I'll do should I go blind.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/26/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.1% or -26.51 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1264 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 655 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 609 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 113/188 or 60.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 30/58 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The red line outlines a descending scallop. Two thirds of descending scallops break out downward.

You can also see a head-and-shoulders bottom. I show that as L (left shoulder), H (head), and R (right shoulder). This is a confirmed head-and-shoulders bottom, meaning the index has closed above the neckline (shown here in a thin green line connecting the two armpits).

The head-and-shoulders has broken out upward already (versus an impending downward breakout from the scallop), so we know the bias is upward.

I'm not so sure that this upward move has legs. The chart pattern indicator has taken a plunge, suggesting a loss of upward momentum. We might see the index drop instead of rise.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,079.34    
 Monthly S1  17,528.29  448.95   
 Weekly S2  17,678.29  150.00   
 Daily S2  17,805.85  127.57   
 Weekly S1  17,827.76  21.91   
 Monthly Pivot  17,847.96  20.20   
 Low  17,855.55  7.59   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S1  17,891.55  36.00   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,907.27  15.72   
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,923.24  15.97   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,939.22  15.98   
 Daily Pivot  17,941.24  2.02   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  17,977.24  36.00   
 High  17,990.94  13.70   
 Open  17,990.94  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the High.
 Weekly Pivot  17,997.70  6.76   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  18,026.94  29.24   
 Daily R2  18,076.63  49.70   
 Weekly R1  18,147.17  70.54   
 Monthly R1  18,296.91  149.74   
 Weekly R2  18,317.11  20.20   
 Monthly R2  18,616.58  299.47   

Monday 4/25/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

This chart is a case study of overhead resistance and underlying support. Which will win?

First, let's discuss overhead resistance.

I drew the red line at A from the right to the left. It shows the index turning lower at the red line. Before we conclude that the uptrend is over, let's look for support.

Support in this picture comes in the form of an up-sloping trendline. I show that as the blue line.

The index has dropped down to touch that support line.

Will the index rebound based on that blue line or continue lower after having peaked at the red line?

The answer is unknown. Sorry.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a wasp from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 106.7 points.
Tuesday: Up 49.44 points.
Wednesday: Up 42.67 points.
Thursday: Down 113.75 points.
Friday: Up 21.23 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 106.29 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 31.99 points or 0.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 10.85 points or 0.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.9% down from the high of 18,167.63 on 04/20/2016.
     16.5% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     1.3% down from the high of 4,969.32 on 04/20/2016.
     16.5% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     0.9% down from the high of 2,111.05 on 04/20/2016.
     15.6% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
New home sales10:00 MC+Shows sales of single-family homes.
Durable goods orders8:30 TBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Rate decision2:00 W?The Federal Reserves reports on interest rate changes.
Gross domestic product8:30 ThBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 FC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Personal income & consumption8:30 FC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 FBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Michigan sentiment10:00 FB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/22/2016, the CPI had:

0 bearish patterns,
28 bullish patterns,
231 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 100.0%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,863  17,933  17,980  18,050  18,097 
Weekly  17,687  17,845  18,007  18,165  18,326 
Monthly  17,088  17,546  17,857  18,315  18,625 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,076  2,084  2,089  2,097  2,102 
Weekly  2,055  2,073  2,092  2,111  2,129 
Monthly  1,986  2,039  2,075  2,128  2,164 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,850  4,878  4,900  4,928  4,950 
Weekly  4,819  4,862  4,916  4,960  5,013 
Monthly  4,636  4,771  4,870  5,005  5,105 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 30.1%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 27.6%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 29.9%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 41.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.4%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 38.5%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
30Head-and-shoulders top
15Triangle, symmetrical
12Pipe bottom
10Flag, high and tight
9Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Triangle, descending
4Triple top
4Broadening top
4Rectangle top
4Double Top, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Medical Supplies1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Metal Fabricating2. Medical Supplies
3. Cement and Aggregates3. Electric Utility (Central)
4. Precision Instrument4. Diversified Co.
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Electric Utility (West)
50. Computer Software and Svcs50. Natural Gas (Diversified)
51. Apparel51. Securities Brokerage
52. Electronics52. Information Services
53. Homebuilding53. Electronics
54. Short ETFs54. Petroleum (Producing)
55. Information Services55. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
56. Shoe56. Shoe
57. Retail (Special Lines)57. Retail (Special Lines)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/22/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 37 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 641 stocks searched, or 5.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 8 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 22 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/30/201604/15/2016Semiconductor
AGUBroadening wedge, descending      03/21/201604/21/2016Chemical (Specialty)
AABroadening top, right-angled and ascending      03/07/201604/20/2016Metals and Mining (Div.)
ALLHead-and-shoulders top      03/18/201604/19/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BBYPipe bottom      04/04/201604/11/2016Retail (Special Lines)
BKHHead-and-shoulders top      03/18/201604/20/2016Electric Utility (West)
BRCBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      03/07/201604/21/2016Chemical (Diversified)
CHSBroadening top      03/03/201604/21/2016Apparel
EDHead-and-shoulders top      03/18/201604/20/2016Electric Utility (East)
CONNPipe bottom      04/04/201604/11/2016Retail (Special Lines)
DVNFlag, high and tight      02/19/201604/20/2016Natural Gas (Diversified)
DRQTriangle, descending      03/10/201604/18/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
DUKHead-and-shoulders top      03/18/201604/19/2016Electric Utility (East)
EEDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/01/201604/20/2016Electric Utility (West)
ERAHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/29/201604/18/2016Air Transport
REDouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/04/201604/21/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
FISVHead-and-shoulders top      03/18/201604/19/2016IT Services
FMCPipe bottom      04/04/201604/11/2016Chemical (Basic)
FDPRectangle top      03/07/201604/21/2016Food Processing
GXPHead-and-shoulders top      03/18/201604/19/2016Electric Utility (Central)
GBPipe bottom      04/04/201604/11/2016Electronics
HSCFlag, high and tight      03/02/201604/21/2016Diversified Co.
ILMNDead-cat bounce      04/19/201604/19/2016Biotechnology
INFNFalling wedge      03/21/201604/21/2016Telecom. Equipment
ISILTriangle, descending      03/15/201604/21/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MOSPipe bottom      04/04/201604/11/2016Chemical (Diversified)
NWPXTriangle, descending      02/29/201604/21/2016Building Materials
OGEHead-and-shoulders top      03/18/201604/20/2016Electric Utility (Central)
PCGHead-and-shoulders top      03/18/201604/19/2016Electric Utility (West)
PORHead-and-shoulders top      03/18/201604/19/2016Electric Utility (West)
PPLHead-and-shoulders top      03/17/201604/19/2016Electric Utility (East)
PEGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/01/201604/20/2016Electric Utility (East)
ROGTriangle, descending      03/14/201604/21/2016Electronics
SREDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/01/201604/20/2016Electric Utility (West)
SONSRectangle top      03/15/201604/21/2016Telecom. Equipment
SOHead-and-shoulders top      03/18/201604/20/2016Electric Utility (East)
SWXHead-and-shoulders top      03/18/201604/20/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
SMRTPipe bottom      04/04/201604/11/2016Apparel
TRVHead-and-shoulders top      03/22/201604/19/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
WLKScallop, ascending      03/18/201604/21/2016Chemical (Basic)
WWWPipe bottom      04/04/201604/11/2016Shoe
XELHead-and-shoulders top      03/18/201604/20/2016Electric Utility (West)
IDUHead-and-shoulders top      03/18/201604/20/2016Electric Utility (Central)
EWIPipe bottom      04/04/201604/11/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)
XLUHead-and-shoulders top      03/17/201604/20/2016Electric Utility (Central)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/14/2016 and 04/21/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 92 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $32.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.85 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.37%
Volume: 619,700 shares. 3 month avg: 352,225 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/30/2016 to 04/15/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Agrium, Inc (AGU)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 469 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $86.03
1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $82.18 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.70%
Volume: 934,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,083,225 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 03/21/2016 to 04/21/2016
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Alcoa (AA)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 104 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $10.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.45 or 9.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.57%
Volume: 23,566,700 shares. 3 month avg: 31,823,206 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 03/07/2016 to 04/20/2016
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Allstate Corp (ALL)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 195 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $65.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.19 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.41%
Volume: 3,295,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,581,737 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/19/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Best Buy Co. (BBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 452 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $32.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.45 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.91%
Volume: 2,898,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,105,843 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/04/2016 to 04/11/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Black Hills Corp (BKH)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 37 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $56.55
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.87 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.80%
Volume: 656,700 shares. 3 month avg: 679,134 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/20/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Brady Corp (BRC)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 58 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $26.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28.66 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.75%
Volume: 222,600 shares. 3 month avg: 257,405 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 03/07/2016 to 04/21/2016
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Chicos FAS Inc. (CHS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 505 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $12.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.00 or 8.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 20.43%
Volume: 1,690,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,785,783 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 03/03/2016 to 04/21/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Con Edison, Inc (ED)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 231 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $71.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $75.98 or 6.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.63%
Volume: 3,751,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,150,491 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/20/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Conns Inc (CONN)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 599 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $14.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.27 or 22.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -38.35%
Volume: 903,300 shares. 3 month avg: 974,663 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/04/2016 to 04/11/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/29/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/28/2016 and a 38% chance by 09/27/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Devon Energy Corp. (DVN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 577 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $33.93
1 Month avg volatility: $1.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.78 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.03%
Volume: 14,104,500 shares. 3 month avg: 16,038,272 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/19/2016 to 04/20/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Dril-Quip Inc (DRQ)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 444 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $60.74
1 Month avg volatility: $1.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $65.90 or 8.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.55%
Volume: 311,400 shares. 3 month avg: 629,717 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/10/2016 to 04/18/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Duke Energy Corp (DUK)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 287 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $76.34
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $80.55 or 5.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.93%
Volume: 4,967,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,789,054 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/19/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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El Paso Electric (EE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 103 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $43.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.86 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.66%
Volume: 290,600 shares. 3 month avg: 239,255 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 04/01/2016 to 04/20/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Era Group Inc (ERA)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 623 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $9.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.56 or 10.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.08%
Volume: 102,300 shares. 3 month avg: 150,588 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 03/29/2016 to 04/18/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Everest Re Group Ltd (RE)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 216 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $191.59
1 Month avg volatility: $3.06. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $206.10 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.64%
Volume: 422,300 shares. 3 month avg: 331,200 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 04/04/2016 to 04/21/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

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Fiserv, Inc (FISV)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 225 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $98.41
1 Month avg volatility: $1.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $102.20 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.60%
Volume: 1,211,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,257,669 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/19/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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FMC Corp. (FMC)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 79 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $42.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.18 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.38%
Volume: 2,120,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,318,583 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/04/2016 to 04/11/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 321 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $42.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.57 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.20%
Volume: 346,500 shares. 3 month avg: 192,403 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/07/2016 to 04/21/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Great Plains Energy (GXP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 174 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $30.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.96 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.84%
Volume: 1,062,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,374,889 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/19/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Greatbatch Inc (GB)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 595 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $36.33
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.47 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -30.80%
Volume: 146,900 shares. 3 month avg: 370,538 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/04/2016 to 04/11/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/01/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/31/2016 and a 38% chance by 08/30/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 600 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $7.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.66 or 10.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.96%
Volume: 1,125,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,129,145 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/02/2016 to 04/21/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/26/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/27/2016 and a 38% chance by 08/26/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Illumina Inc (ILMN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 286 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $144.95
1 Month avg volatility: $5.92. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $156.94 or 8.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -24.48%
Volume: 2,217,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,588,938 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 04/19/2016 to 04/19/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 549 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $14.73
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.47 or 8.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.71%
Volume: 1,539,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,234,954 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 03/21/2016 to 04/21/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Intersil Corp (ISIL)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 280 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $12.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.70 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.02%
Volume: 539,000 shares. 3 month avg: 935,838 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/15/2016 to 04/21/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Mosaic Co (MOS)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 548 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $28.71
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.60 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.06%
Volume: 5,772,600 shares. 3 month avg: 6,357,131 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/04/2016 to 04/11/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Northwest Pipe Co (NWPX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 604 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $9.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.93 or 13.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.67%
Volume: 50,700 shares. 3 month avg: 65,706 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/29/2016 to 04/21/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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OGE Energy Corp (OGE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 447 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $27.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28.99 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.84%
Volume: 854,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,599,765 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/20/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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PG and E (PCG)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 261 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $56.62
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.88 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.45%
Volume: 3,644,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,064,257 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/19/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Portland General Electric Co. (POR)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 385 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $37.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.74 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.23%
Volume: 608,200 shares. 3 month avg: 814,031 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/19/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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PPL Corporation (PPL)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 213 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $36.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.13 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.27%
Volume: 6,576,100 shares. 3 month avg: 4,753,845 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/17/2016 to 04/19/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Public Service Enterprise Group PEG (PEG)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 272 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $44.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $47.45 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.02%
Volume: 3,644,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,200,263 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/01/2016 to 04/20/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Rogers Corp (ROG)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 125 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $58.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.99 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.88%
Volume: 67,900 shares. 3 month avg: 119,157 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/14/2016 to 04/21/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Sempra Energy (SRE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 357 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $100.47
1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $105.39 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.87%
Volume: 1,179,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,403,717 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/01/2016 to 04/20/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Sonus Networks, Inc. (SONS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 106 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $7.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.63 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.19%
Volume: 230,100 shares. 3 month avg: 587,709 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/15/2016 to 04/21/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Southern Company (SO)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 230 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $48.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.07 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.59%
Volume: 6,022,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,228,952 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/20/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Southwest Gas Corp. (SWX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 326 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $62.88
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $66.71 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.00%
Volume: 193,200 shares. 3 month avg: 229,440 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/20/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 562 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $7.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.67 or 8.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.77%
Volume: 173,900 shares. 3 month avg: 199,169 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/04/2016 to 04/11/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Travelers Companies Inc, The (TRV)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 397 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $108.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $115.12 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.61%
Volume: 5,073,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,911,085 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/22/2016 to 04/19/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Westlake Chemical Corp (WLK)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 507 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $51.55
1 Month avg volatility: $1.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.10 or 10.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.10%
Volume: 2,268,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,045,720 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/21/2016
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Wolverine World Wide (WWW)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 237 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $19.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.76 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.20%
Volume: 634,800 shares. 3 month avg: 957,149 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/04/2016 to 04/11/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Xcel Energy, Inc (XEL)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 243 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $38.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $40.91 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.52%
Volume: 8,397,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,865,392 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/20/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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DJ US Utilities sector index fund (IDU)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 257 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $117.31
1 Month avg volatility: $1.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $122.68 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.70%
Volume: 400,200 shares. 3 month avg: 295,712 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/20/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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MSCI Italy Index (EWI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 550 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $12.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.16 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.81%
Volume: 2,199,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,148,551 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/04/2016 to 04/11/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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SPDR Utilities Select Sector (XLU)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 258 out of 633
4/21/16 close: $46.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.08 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.43%
Volume: 32,058,300 shares. 3 month avg: 18,458,563 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/17/2016 to 04/20/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Thursday 4/21/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.2% or 7.8 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 629 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 367 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 262 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 104/179 or 58.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/72 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index shows a long rectangle top that occurred over the last few days.

I show that as the area between the two green lines.

On Wednesday, the index peaked above the top green line only to sink back under. That suggests it'll continue down to the lower green line.

That might take two days. That downward move also agrees with the daily scale that shows the index at a region of overhead resistance. On that scale, the index has been moving sideways (hence, the rectangle).

Alternatively, the index could move higher. On the daily chart, that would mean it breaks out upward from the congestion region. Longer term, that could mean a rise to 5100 or so. That would take some time to get there, of course, but it could manage it in about a week.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,609.72    
 Weekly S2  4,753.72  144.00   
 Monthly S1  4,778.93  25.20   
 Weekly S1  4,850.93  72.00   
 Monthly Pivot  4,870.11  19.19   
 Weekly Pivot  4,906.11  36.00   
 Daily S2  4,907.55  1.44   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S1  4,927.84  20.29   
 Low  4,928.29  0.45   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  4,941.99  13.70   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,943.96  1.97   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Close  4,948.13  4.17   
 Daily Pivot  4,948.58  0.45   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,948.81  0.23   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,953.65  4.84   
 Daily R1  4,968.87  15.22   
 High  4,969.32  0.45   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  4,989.61  20.29   
 Weekly R1  5,003.32  13.71   
 Monthly R1  5,039.32  36.00   
 Weekly R2  5,058.50  19.19   
 Monthly R2  5,130.50  72.00   

Wednesday 4/20/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

There's a small curl down in the indicator today. I don't know if that means the uptrend is over. It's certainly weakening a bit (slackening momentum).

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in this development. The indices could continue higher, higher than many expect.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 41% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 45%.
The fewest was 20% on 04/23/2015.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 538 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 22%.
The peak was 12% on 04/23/2015.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The numbers above describe an improving situation if you own stocks in this market. Many are showing signs of improving.

Weakness of two weeks ago has disappeared, replaced by a resumption of the uptrend.

The only thing that would give me pause now, is shown by drawing a green line connecting recent peaks (see chart). It's overhead resistance. We'll have to wait and see if the indices turn soon.

My feeling is that they won't (they will continue rising) but that's just a guess.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/19/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.6% or 106.7 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 824 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 458 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 366 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 112/187 or 59.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 30/58 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The two green lines show a region of support and resistance where the index moved horizontally. Then it broke out upward from that area in a nice move higher.

I show that as arc A.

At B, a smaller arc has formed, although it's not fully complete. You can think of these two arcs as inverted and ascending scallops.

When I studied scallops, I found that when they get shorter and narrower, a trend end is more likely.

If the index drops, it could form the right end of the scallop, say a drop to 17950 followed by a resumption of the uptrend. Or we could see a steeper decline to 17800 in a trend reversal.

If the index rises, then 18150 looks possible. I arrived at that number by looking at the sharp jump on Wednesday, a move of about 150 points.

$ $ $

This is a shout-out to Ronda and her cat Angus. After 18 years, he's struggling to survive.

$ $ $

On Sunday morning, I was looking out my office window and saw a small dog running down the street in the pouring rain. I thought she had escaped from someone's yard.

In the afternoon, I saw the signs about a lost dog, so I called the listed number to relay my information. The woman said that the dog made it about half mile away to the grocery store (crossing a busy highway).

There, someone in a black pickup truck (not the owner) took the dog.

Later, I received a phone call from the dog's owner. She said the man grabbing the dog was an employee of the grocery store. He took the dog because he didn't want animal control to take it. The owner was on her way to pick up the dog.

I think it's strange that the man took the dog and also strange that there's a fear about animal control. If I were to lose a dog, animal control would be my first call.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,713.28    
 Monthly S1  17,358.72  645.44   
 Weekly S2  17,431.39  72.67   
 Monthly Pivot  17,660.43  229.04   
 Weekly S1  17,717.77  57.34   
 Daily S2  17,792.66  74.89   
 Weekly Pivot  17,839.96  47.30   
 Low  17,848.22  8.26   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  17,890.20  41.98   
 Daily S1  17,898.41  8.21   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,909.84  11.43   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,928.88  19.04   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,947.91  19.04   
 Daily Pivot  17,953.97  6.06   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  18,004.16  50.19   
 High  18,009.53  5.37   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  18,059.72  50.19   
 Daily R2  18,115.28  55.56   
 Weekly R1  18,126.34  11.06   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  18,248.53  122.18   
 Monthly R1  18,305.87  57.34   
 Monthly R2  18,607.58  301.71   

Monday 4/18/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

This chart looks a lot like last weeks chart on the Dow industrials.

I drew in the red line connecting the peaks in November and December and extended the line to the right. This is overhead resistance, or the top end of it.

The green line I drew starting from Thursday's high price and to the left, passing though prices along the way.

The green line appears to be the start of overhead resistance.

Now look at the blue line. It is a down-sloping trendline which joins the peaks in December.

Notice the intersection of the blue and green lines. That's a resistance area. I don't think they are additive to be twice as strong. My impression is that support and resistance do not work like that.

Perhaps we'll see if the index turns right here and heads lower.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a toad from my yard.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 20.55 points.
Tuesday: Up 164.84 points.
Wednesday: Up 187.03 points.
Thursday: Up 18.15 points.
Friday: Down 28.97 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 320.5 points or 1.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 87.53 points or 1.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 33.13 points or 1.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.4% down from the high of 17,962.14 on 04/14/2016.
     15.8% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     0.5% down from the high of 4,961.30 on 04/14/2016.
     17.3% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     0.3% down from the high of 2,087.84 on 04/14/2016.
     15.0% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Building permits8:30 TB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Housing starts8:30 TB-Number of homes beginning construction.
Existing home sales10:00 WCCounts sales of used homes.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Leading indicators10:00 ThD-Summary of already known reports.

Options Expiration

VIX expires on Wednesday.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/15/2016, the CPI had:

4 bearish patterns,
31 bullish patterns,
438 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 88.6%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,831  17,864  17,901  17,934  17,971 
Weekly  17,396  17,647  17,804  18,055  18,213 
Monthly  16,678  17,288  17,625  18,235  18,572 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,073  2,077  2,080  2,084  2,087 
Weekly  2,021  2,051  2,069  2,099  2,118 
Monthly  1,961  2,021  2,054  2,114  2,148 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,913  4,926  4,938  4,951  4,963 
Weekly  4,750  4,844  4,903  4,997  5,055 
Monthly  4,606  4,772  4,867  5,033  5,127 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 42.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months up 27.6%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 41.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 41.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 43.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 38.5%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
16Triangle, symmetrical
12Head-and-shoulders top
12Double Top, Adam and Adam
10Flag, high and tight
5Pipe bottom
5Triple top
5Flag
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
4Broadening top
4Rising wedge

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Medical Supplies2. Medical Supplies
3. Electric Utility (Central)3. Electric Utility (West)
4. Diversified Co.4. Electric Utility (Central)
5. Electric Utility (West)5. Electric Utility (East)
50. Natural Gas (Diversified)50. Information Services
51. Securities Brokerage51. Apparel
52. Information Services52. Electronics
53. Electronics53. Securities Brokerage
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Petroleum (Producing)
55. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment55. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
56. Shoe56. Shoe
57. Retail (Special Lines)57. Retail (Special Lines)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/15/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 19 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 641 stocks searched, or 3.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ANFPennant      04/11/201604/14/2016Apparel
BSETTriangle, symmetrical      03/23/201604/14/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
COGRising wedge      02/08/201604/14/2016Natural Gas (Diversified)
CLRFlag, high and tight      02/11/201604/14/2016Petroleum (Producing)
CRHRising wedge      01/29/201604/14/2016Cement and Aggregates
DTEHead-and-shoulders top      03/18/201604/08/2016Electric Utility (Central)
BOOMHorn bottom      03/21/201604/04/2016Metal Fabricating
EGNFlag, high and tight      02/12/201604/12/2016Natural Gas (Diversified)
HONTriangle, symmetrical      04/01/201604/11/2016Aerospace/Defense
TILETriangle, ascending      03/18/201604/14/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
KLICTriangle, symmetrical      03/21/201604/14/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MHOBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      03/03/201604/08/2016Homebuilding
MROFlag, high and tight      02/19/201604/14/2016Petroleum (Integrated)
NBLPipe bottom      03/28/201604/04/2016Petroleum (Producing)
PRURoof      03/04/201604/11/2016Insurance (Life)
RCKYTriangle, symmetrical      03/21/201604/11/2016Shoe
SWNFlag, high and tight      02/26/201604/14/2016Natural Gas (Diversified)
VMCBroadening wedge, ascending      03/18/201604/13/2016Cement and Aggregates
EEMBroadening top      03/17/201604/13/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)
THDBroadening top, right-angled and descending      03/11/201604/13/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)
USOPipe bottom      03/28/201604/04/2016Petroleum (Producing)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/07/2016 and 04/14/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abercrombie and Fitch Co. (ANF)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 14 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $28.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.22 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.11%
Volume: 1,257,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,546,138 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 04/11/2016 to 04/14/2016
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Bassett Furniture Industries Inc (BSET)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 290 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $31.72
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.09 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.48%
Volume: 69,300 shares. 3 month avg: 85,783 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/23/2016 to 04/14/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cabot Oil and Gas A (COG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 359 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $22.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.93 or 9.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 28.94%
Volume: 6,293,400 shares. 3 month avg: 10,378,931 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/08/2016 to 04/14/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Continental Resources Inc. (CLR)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 388 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $33.83
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.84 or 11.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 47.21%
Volume: 4,020,900 shares. 3 month avg: 9,479,945 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/11/2016 to 04/14/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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CRH plc (CRH)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 214 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $28.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.73 or 2.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.42%
Volume: 168,400 shares. 3 month avg: 418,852 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/29/2016 to 04/14/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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DTE Energy Company (DTE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 215 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $88.28
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $91.37 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.09%
Volume: 813,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,169,266 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/08/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 598 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $7.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.47 or 13.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.30%
Volume: 42,900 shares. 3 month avg: 71,060 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 03/21/2016 to 04/04/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Energen Corp (EGN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 604 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $39.26
1 Month avg volatility: $1.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.44 or 12.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.22%
Volume: 1,109,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,659,385 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/12/2016 to 04/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 93 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $114.52
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $111.42 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.57%
Volume: 1,766,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,084,838 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/01/2016 to 04/11/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Interface, Inc. (TILE)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $18.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.72 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.54%
Volume: 518,600 shares. 3 month avg: 609,318 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/14/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/25/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/26/2016 and a 38% chance by 08/25/2016.
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 164 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $11.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.56 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.08%
Volume: 174,900 shares. 3 month avg: 476,245 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/21/2016 to 04/14/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 539 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $19.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $21.01 or 6.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -10.36%
Volume: 100,400 shares. 3 month avg: 188,351 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 03/03/2016 to 04/08/2016
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Marathon Oil (MRO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 597 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $13.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.41 or 13.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.13%
Volume: 21,203,200 shares. 3 month avg: 36,566,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/19/2016 to 04/14/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Noble Energy Inc. (NBL)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 423 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $33.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.20 or 8.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.43%
Volume: 3,646,100 shares. 3 month avg: 5,509,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/28/2016 to 04/04/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Prudential Financial Inc (PRU)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 354 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $76.29
1 Month avg volatility: $1.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.80 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.29%
Volume: 1,903,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,389,895 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof reversal pattern from 03/04/2016 to 04/11/2016
Breakout is downward 84% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 68% of the time.

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Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 426 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $13.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.59 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.73%
Volume: 17,800 shares. 3 month avg: 29,969 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/21/2016 to 04/11/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 509 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $10.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.99 or 16.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 51.20%
Volume: 13,731,400 shares. 3 month avg: 21,120,243 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/26/2016 to 04/14/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 79 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $106.58
1 Month avg volatility: $1.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $110.40 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.22%
Volume: 824,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,228,363 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/13/2016
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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MSCI Emerging Markets Index fund (EEM)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 378 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $34.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.73 or 2.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.01%
Volume: 49,748,200 shares. 3 month avg: 70,814,082 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 03/17/2016 to 04/13/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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MSCI Thailand Invest Mkt Index (THD)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 346 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $67.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.87 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.19%
Volume: 308,800 shares. 3 month avg: 218,526 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 03/11/2016 to 04/13/2016
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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United States Oil (USO)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 596 out of 633
4/14/16 close: $10.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.88 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.73%
Volume: 31,728,100 shares. 3 month avg: 51,957,709 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/28/2016 to 04/04/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 4/14/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.5% or 75.33 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 104 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 61 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 43 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 104/178 or 58.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/72 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The two green, horizontal, lines show a support zone.

The two red lines show a smaller zone, tucked just above the green zone.

Since the index has pushed above the red zone, you might say it's destined for a continued move up. This thesis agrees with the daily chart which shows many of the indices coming out of their recent retraces.

However, there's another read, too. Sometimes a support or resistance zone will extend beyond the current value. Double tops, for example, will show this behavior with the second top stopping above the first. That behavior is a pattern by itself, called a 2B.

I know this sounds dumb, but look for a strong push upward on Thursday (which I consider likely) or a drop back into the green zone if something overnight triggers a fall.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,512.12    
 Monthly S1  4,729.77  217.65   
 Weekly S2  4,810.12  80.35   
 Monthly Pivot  4,825.64  15.52   
 Weekly S1  4,878.77  53.13   
 Daily S2  4,886.00  7.23   
 Weekly Pivot  4,900.14  14.14   
 Low  4,903.60  3.46   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  4,904.79  1.19   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  4,916.71  11.92   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,922.05  5.34   
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,927.75  5.70   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,933.46  5.70   
 Daily Pivot  4,934.31  0.85   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  4,947.42  13.11   
 High  4,951.91  4.49   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  4,965.02  13.11   
 Weekly R1  4,968.79  3.77   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  4,982.62  13.83   
 Weekly R2  4,990.16  7.54   
 Monthly R1  5,043.29  53.13   
 Monthly R2  5,139.16  95.87   

Wednesday 4/13/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bearish signal that appeared recently has disappeared as of this post. The sideways move in the index seems to be gathering bullish strength, according to the indicator (the indicator has gone vertical and hit the ceiling).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 45% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 43%.
The fewest was 19% on 04/15/2015.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 539 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 21%.
The peak was 12% on 04/15/2015.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

This indicator shows that weakness in stocks is growing. The slight retrace during the last week has hurt many of the stocks in my database.

You can see that in the two lines trending lower.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/12/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.1% or -20.55 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1263 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 654 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 609 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 111/186 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 30/58 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

A head-and-shoulders top appears at L (left shoulder), H (head), and R (you guessed it, right shoulder), confirmed when the index closed below the red neckline.

That happened at A.

What does this chart pattern mean? It means the index is going down, but that has already happened. The height of the pattern, from the H to the red line directly below, suggests there's still more of a drop to come. [That means you take that height and subtract it from the breakout price (A) to get a target.]

However, the intraday scale isn't that reliable when trying to predict a move from day to day, as in this case.

The shooting star on the daily chart suggests weakness, so the index might resume its downward move on Tuesday.

If the index were to rise, it's facing an upward challenge since it's sitting right on overhead resistance setup by the November peaks.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,406.96    
 Monthly S1  16,981.69  574.72   
 Weekly S2  17,293.52  311.84   
 Monthly Pivot  17,396.58  103.06   
 Weekly S1  17,424.97  28.38   
 Daily S2  17,438.92  13.95   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  17,497.66  58.75   
 Low  17,555.90  58.24   
 Close  17,556.41  0.51   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Open  17,586.48  30.07   
 Daily Pivot  17,614.65  28.17   
 Weekly Pivot  17,615.67  1.03   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,623.03  7.36   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,643.77  20.74   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,664.50  20.74   
 Daily R1  17,673.39  8.89   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  17,731.63  58.24   
 Weekly R1  17,747.12  15.49   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  17,790.38  43.26   
 Weekly R2  17,937.82  147.45   
 Monthly R1  17,971.31  33.48   
 Monthly R2  18,386.20  414.90   

Monday 4/11/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

Let's go backward, starting at C. This is a wonderful picture of an Adam & Adam double bottom.

The two downward spikes are clear. The rise between the two bottoms sets the confirmation price. If the security can't close above that peak, then it's not a double bottom.

This double bottom confirms as a valid pattern.

Point B, marking the green line, is a support area since price is above the line, heading down. This line actually marks the bottom of the support area which extends upward to the red line at A.

The red line is the top of overhead resistance.

What will happen next? Let's take the three cases. The index could rise from here, staging another strong push higher just as it did starting in February. Given that the index has backpedaled some over the last week, it appears this scenario is unlikely, but it could happen. Earnings season is starting, so that's another vote for an extended retrace.

The index could move sideways. With such a strong push higher from the low in February, sometimes we see the security move horizontally, forming a top. Often that top precedes a tumble.

The Nov to Jan cluster is an example of this behavior.

Finally, the index could drop. That's my guess, given the conditions I've already discussed (earnings, price weakness). The index could drop to the green line before rebounding.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 55.75 points.
Tuesday: Down 133.68 points.
Wednesday: Up 112.73 points.
Thursday: Down 174.09 points.
Friday: Up 35 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 215.79 points or 1.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 63.85 points or 1.3%.
The S&P 500 index was down 25.18 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.3% down from the high of 17,811.48 on 04/01/2016.
     13.8% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     1.5% down from the high of 4,926.73 on 01/05/2016.
     15.2% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     1.3% down from the high of 2,075.07 on 04/01/2016.
     13.1% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
International trade8:30 TC+Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others.
Treasury budget2:00 TDTracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing).
Producer price index8:30 WB-Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation.
Retail sales8:30 WA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
Business inventories10:00 WC-Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FEDs Beige book2:00 W?Reports on economic conditions.
Consumer price index8:30 ThB+Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Capacity utilization9:15 FB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.
Industrial production9:15 FB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Michigan sentiment10:00 FB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,434  17,505  17,600  17,672  17,766 
Weekly  17,300  17,439  17,623  17,761  17,945 
Monthly  16,414  16,995  17,403  17,985  18,393 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,031  2,039  2,050  2,058  2,069 
Weekly  2,012  2,030  2,052  2,070  2,092 
Monthly  1,925  1,986  2,031  2,092  2,136 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,802  4,827  4,860  4,884  4,917 
Weekly  4,778  4,814  4,868  4,904  4,958 
Monthly  4,480  4,665  4,793  4,979  5,107 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.2%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 20.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.1%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 20.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 26.3%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 5 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
12Triangle, symmetrical
12Double Top, Adam and Adam
11Head-and-shoulders top
9Flag, high and tight
6Broadening top
6Flag
5Dead-cat bounce
5Triple top
3Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
3Double Top, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Medical Supplies2. Electric Utility (West)
3. Electric Utility (West)3. Electric Utility (Central)
4. Electric Utility (Central)4. Medical Supplies
5. Electric Utility (East)5. Advertising
50. Information Services50. Information Services
51. Apparel51. Securities Brokerage
52. Electronics52. Homebuilding
53. Securities Brokerage53. Electronics
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Drug
55. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment55. Shoe
56. Shoe56. Short ETFs
57. Retail (Special Lines)57. Retail (Special Lines)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/8/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 21 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 642 stocks searched, or 3.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 9 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
MMMDiamond top      03/30/201604/07/2016Diversified Co.
AELDead-cat bounce      04/06/201604/06/2016Insurance (Life)
ANIKTriangle, symmetrical      02/25/201604/07/2016Biotechnology
BIGTriangle, symmetrical      03/11/201604/07/2016Retail Store
CVXTriangle, descending      03/15/201604/07/2016Petroleum (Integrated)
CINFTriple top      03/11/201604/01/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CLNETriangle, descending      03/04/201604/07/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
EDERectangle top      02/18/201604/07/2016Electric Utility (Central)
FEYETriangle, symmetrical      03/09/201604/07/2016Computer Software and Svcs
PDLITriangle, symmetrical      02/23/201604/07/2016Biotechnology
RJFTriple top      03/21/201604/06/2016Securities Brokerage
RGADouble Top, Adam and Eve      03/18/201604/04/2016Insurance (Life)
SWCTriangle, symmetrical      03/21/201604/07/2016Metals and Mining (Div.)
TEVABig W      03/18/201604/01/2016Drug
VRTXHorn bottom      03/14/201603/28/2016Biotechnology
VVUSFlag, high and tight      02/09/201604/06/2016Biotechnology
WMBTriangle, descending      02/24/201604/07/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
ITATriangle, symmetrical      03/21/201604/06/2016Aerospace/Defense
IAIHead-and-shoulders top      03/11/201604/01/2016Securities Brokerage
PPATriangle, symmetrical      03/24/201604/07/2016Aerospace/Defense
SKFDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      03/18/201604/01/2016Short ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/31/2016 and 04/07/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
3M Company (MMM)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 110 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $167.16
1 Month avg volatility: $1.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $170.75 or 2.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.97%
Volume: 2,728,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,701,586 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 03/30/2016 to 04/07/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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American Equity Investment Life Holding (AEL)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 617 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $12.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.45 or 20.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -46.40%
Volume: 3,025,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,054,845 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 04/06/2016 to 04/06/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Anika Therapeutics Inc (ANIK)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 12 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $44.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.73 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.69%
Volume: 113,300 shares. 3 month avg: 173,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/25/2016 to 04/07/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Big Lots Inc. (BIG)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 444 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $44.35
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.69 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.08%
Volume: 1,029,300 shares. 3 month avg: 870,632 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/11/2016 to 04/07/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Chevron Corp (CVX)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 189 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $94.79
1 Month avg volatility: $2.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $99.06 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.37%
Volume: 6,816,500 shares. 3 month avg: 11,750,551 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/15/2016 to 04/07/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 83 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $64.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $66.49 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.69%
Volume: 807,800 shares. 3 month avg: 809,137 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 03/11/2016 to 04/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 623 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $2.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.34 or 18.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -21.39%
Volume: 1,324,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,675,142 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/04/2016 to 04/07/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Empire District (EDE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 7 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $33.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.50 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.45%
Volume: 188,200 shares. 3 month avg: 562,938 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/18/2016 to 04/07/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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FireEye Inc (FEYE)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 616 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $17.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.17 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.79%
Volume: 4,567,700 shares. 3 month avg: 6,209,209 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/09/2016 to 04/07/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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PDL BioPharma Inc (PDLI)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 596 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $3.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.85 or 13.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.34%
Volume: 2,206,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,562,040 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/23/2016 to 04/07/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/05/2015. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/05/2016.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 470 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $44.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.25. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.25 or 10.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -23.27%
Volume: 1,174,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,392,357 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 03/21/2016 to 04/06/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Reinsurance Group of America (RGA)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 270 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $93.08
1 Month avg volatility: $1.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $97.60 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.80%
Volume: 266,700 shares. 3 month avg: 336,112 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/04/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

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Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 440 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $10.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.73 or 13.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.32%
Volume: 1,441,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,806,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/21/2016 to 04/07/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 344 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $56.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.94 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.92%
Volume: 4,507,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,784,352 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Big W reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/01/2016
Breakout is upward 71% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 32% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 42% of the time.

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 538 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $86.30
1 Month avg volatility: $4.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $77.18 or 10.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -31.42%
Volume: 2,797,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,729,989 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 03/14/2016 to 03/28/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Vivus Inc (VVUS)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 352 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $1.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.47 or 16.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 71.57%
Volume: 3,085,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,158,232 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/09/2016 to 04/06/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Williams Companies Inc. (WMB)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 633 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $15.71
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.05 or 14.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -38.87%
Volume: 11,966,100 shares. 3 month avg: 16,119,080 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/24/2016 to 04/07/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/13/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/13/2016 and a 38% chance by 07/13/2016.
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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DJ US Aerospace and defense (ITA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 253 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $117.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $114.09 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.96%
Volume: 20,800 shares. 3 month avg: 89,505 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/21/2016 to 04/06/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ US Broker-dealers index fund (IAI)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 427 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $35.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.66 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.20%
Volume: 417,000 shares. 3 month avg: 116,057 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/11/2016 to 04/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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PowerShares Aerospace and Defense (PPA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 249 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $35.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.49 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.98%
Volume: 11,100 shares. 3 month avg: 76,360 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/24/2016 to 04/07/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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UltraShort 2x Financials ProShares (SKF)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 293 out of 634
4/7/16 close: $49.86
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.75 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.71%
Volume: 63,500 shares. 3 month avg: 85,029 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 03/18/2016 to 04/01/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 4/7/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.6% or 76.79 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 74 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 39 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 35 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 104/177 or 58.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/72 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart pattern indicator's bearish signal that I blogged about yesterday has disappeared in today's rising market. Signals like that can appear or disappear for up to a week.

On this chart, I show a triple bottom at ABC. The height of the pattern suggests how far the index will rise and it appears to have fulfilled the measure rule.

I drew a thin green line from the recent peak to see where it matched with today's (Wednesday's) action. Notice that the index has climbed above that resistance line -- barely.

If you look at the daily charts of the Dow utilities and transports, they are retracing. The industrials and the Nasdaq are blissfully unaware of any sustained weakness.

However, the daily chart shows the Nasdaq running up against overhead resistance soon, probably in the 5050 to 5150 range. It's already hit and pushed above resistance setup by a down-sloping trendline connecting December 2015 peaks.

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Good news on the patternz rewrite. I'm working on a new version that uses the latest software and it's slow but coming along. I opened files yesterday and plotted my first chart this morning. Yippee. Writing software is a blast, but learning the new language means I spend hours trying to learn how to do something trivial. That's made worse when the tools themselves are broken and I have to find work-arounds.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,438.79    
 Monthly S1  4,679.76  240.96   
 Weekly S2  4,695.22  15.46   
 Monthly Pivot  4,798.42  103.20   
 Weekly S1  4,807.97  9.55   
 Daily S2  4,824.94  16.97   
 Low  4,849.28  24.34   
 Open  4,849.58  0.30   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  4,862.53  12.95   
 Daily S1  4,872.83  10.30   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,876.87  4.04   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,885.40  8.52   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,893.92  8.52   
 Daily Pivot  4,897.17  3.25   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  4,920.72  23.55   
 High  4,921.51  0.79   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  4,945.06  23.55   
 Daily R2  4,969.40  24.34   
 Weekly R1  4,975.28  5.88   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  5,029.84  54.56   
 Monthly R1  5,039.39  9.55   
 Monthly R2  5,158.05  118.67   

Wednesday 4/6/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Uh-oh. That's what this picture shows. That feeling is backed up by the significant decline my portfolio suffered today, which was much more than I would expect from a 133 point decline in the Dow.

The vertical red line on the right shows that the indicator has entered bearish territory. It could mean the retrace I've been expecting for weeks now, will materialize.

But it might not, of course. This could just be a head-fake, a quick drop that paves the way higher.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 43% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 46%.
The fewest was 19% on 04/15/2015.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 539 stocks in my database are down an average of 21% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 22%.
The peak was 12% on 04/15/2015.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

This chart, and the above text, describes how the typical stock has continued to move up. Today may have hurt but not enough to change the gain since a week ago.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/5/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.3% or -55.75 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1000 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 471 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 529 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 111/186 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 29/57 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The two red lines outline a falling wedge chart pattern. That is good news for bulls. Why? Because the chart pattern breaks out upward 68% of the time.

If we get an upward breakout, look for the index to climb to the level of the prior, recent peaks, about 17,800.

If it drops instead, look for support in the range of 17,650 to 17,600.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,051.88    
 Monthly S1  16,894.44  842.56   
 Weekly S2  17,283.71  389.27   
 Monthly Pivot  17,352.96  69.25   
 Weekly S1  17,510.35  157.39   
 Daily S2  17,655.64  145.29   
 Weekly Pivot  17,660.92  5.28   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  17,696.32  35.40   
 Low  17,710.67  14.35   
 Close  17,737.00  26.33   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,747.23  10.23   
 Daily Pivot  17,751.35  4.12   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,758.53  7.18   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,769.82  11.29   
 Daily R1  17,792.03  22.21   
 Open  17,799.39  7.36   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  17,806.38  6.99   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  17,847.06  40.68   
 Weekly R1  17,887.56  40.50   
 Weekly R2  18,038.13  150.56   
 Monthly R1  18,195.52  157.39   
 Monthly R2  18,654.04  458.52   

Monday 4/4/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I drew the red line starting at A, moving to the left to see where the index peaked in relation to the congestion area late last year.

As the index drops, I show line B, drawn to the right. Line C, drawn similarly to the right, shows the bottom of a support area.

So, I'm looking for this retrace in the transports to be a brief one, reversing somewhere in the BC area.

 

 

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 19.66 points.
Tuesday: Up 97.72 points.
Wednesday: Up 83.55 points.
Thursday: Down 31.57 points.
Friday: Up 107.66 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 277.02 points or 1.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 141.04 points or 3.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 36.84 points or 1.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.1% down from the high of 17,811.48 on 04/01/2016.
     15.2% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     0.2% down from the high of 4,926.73 on 01/05/2016.
     16.7% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 2,075.07 on 04/01/2016.
     14.5% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Factory orders10:00 MD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
Trade balance8:30 TC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Minutes2:00 W?Minutes of the prior Federal Reserve meeting.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Consumer credit3:00 ThD-Measures auto, credit card and other debt.
Wholesale inventories10:00 FD-Wholesale sales and inventory statistics.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/01/2016, the CPI had:

10 bearish patterns,
69 bullish patterns,
293 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 87.3%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,481  17,637  17,724  17,880  17,968 
Weekly  17,302  17,548  17,680  17,925  18,057 
Monthly  16,070  16,932  17,372  18,233  18,673 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,033  2,053  2,064  2,084  2,095 
Weekly  2,012  2,042  2,059  2,089  2,105 
Monthly  1,883  1,978  2,027  2,121  2,170 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,803  4,859  4,888  4,944  4,973 
Weekly  4,693  4,804  4,860  4,971  5,028 
Monthly  4,437  4,676  4,796  5,035  5,156 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 42.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months up 27.6%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 41.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 41.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 44.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months up 38.5%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bearish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bullish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 12 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
24Flag, high and tight
6Flag
6Broadening top
6Dead-cat bounce
5Triangle, symmetrical
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
4Head-and-shoulders top
3Pennant
3Double Top, Adam and Adam
2Rising wedge

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Electric Utility (West)
2. Electric Utility (West)2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Electric Utility (Central)3. Electric Utility (Central)
4. Medical Supplies4. Electric Utility (East)
5. Advertising5. Household Products
50. Information Services50. Information Services
51. Securities Brokerage51. Short ETFs
52. Homebuilding52. Homebuilding
53. Electronics53. Electronics
54. Drug54. Shoe
55. Shoe55. Drug
56. Short ETFs56. Biotechnology
57. Retail (Special Lines)57. Retail (Special Lines)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/1/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 7 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 642 stocks searched, or 1.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
CONNDead-cat bounce      03/29/201603/29/2016Retail (Special Lines)
EDERectangle top      02/18/201603/31/2016Electric Utility (Central)
ISILTriangle, symmetrical      03/04/201603/31/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
NVTAFlag, high and tight      02/11/201603/29/2016Medical Services
MURTriangle, symmetrical      03/07/201603/31/2016Petroleum (Integrated)
NWYFlag, high and tight      02/16/201603/28/2016Apparel
WMTRising wedge      02/01/201603/31/2016Retail Store

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/24/2016 and 03/31/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Conns Inc (CONN)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 627 out of 635
3/31/16 close: $12.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.54 or 24.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -46.91%
Volume: 980,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,000,054 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/29/2016 to 03/29/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Empire District (EDE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 13 out of 635
3/31/16 close: $33.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.27 or 2.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.74%
Volume: 466,600 shares. 3 month avg: 561,283 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/18/2016 to 03/31/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Intersil Corp (ISIL)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 181 out of 635
3/31/16 close: $13.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.52 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.78%
Volume: 659,500 shares. 3 month avg: 954,278 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/04/2016 to 03/31/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Invitae Corp (NVTA)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 27 out of 635
3/31/16 close: $10.23
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.80 or 14.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.60%
Volume: 73,500 shares. 3 month avg: 111,318 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/11/2016 to 03/29/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 326 out of 635
3/31/16 close: $25.19
1 Month avg volatility: $1.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.48 or 18.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.20%
Volume: 3,257,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,589,494 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/07/2016 to 03/31/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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New York and Company Inc (NWY)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 7 out of 635
3/31/16 close: $3.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.21 or 19.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 72.93%
Volume: 266,800 shares. 3 month avg: 109,569 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/16/2016 to 03/28/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 305 out of 635
3/31/16 close: $68.49
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $71.32 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.73%
Volume: 6,283,500 shares. 3 month avg: 11,670,051 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/01/2016 to 03/31/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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