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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Chart Patterns: After the Buy
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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 09/21/2017
22,359 -53.36 -0.2%
9,669 14.62 0.2%
731 -0.83 -0.1%
6,423 -33.35 -0.5%
2,501 -7.64 -0.3%
YTD
13.1%
6.9%
10.8%
19.3%
11.7%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 09/14/2017
22,450 or 21,500 by 10/01/2017
9,750 or 9,200 by 10/01/2017
775 or 730 by 10/01/2017
6,650 or 6,200 by 10/01/2017
2,600 or 2,425 by 10/01/2017

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April 2015 Headlines


Archives


Thursday 4/30/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.6% or -31.78 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 290 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 125 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 165 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 56.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 85/142 or 59.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/59 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart shows a potential double bottom at AB. I write 'potential' because it's just squiggles on the chart until the pattern is confirmed. That will happen only if the index closes above the peak between the two bottoms, C.

That could happen on Thursday easily enough.

But the index could drop to the price level near D. I've seen quick drops follow quick rises where price returns to earth just above the launch price. That means a drop to about 4950.

The probabilities suggest a drop and it looks like that's the way it's heading, given the downward trend in the last half hour of trading.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,708.87    
 Monthly S1  4,866.26  157.38   
 Weekly S2  4,877.87  11.62   
 Weekly S1  4,950.76  72.88   
 Daily S2  4,971.76  21.00   
 Monthly Pivot  4,983.31  11.55   
 Daily S1  4,997.70  14.39   
 Low  4,999.83  2.13   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,020.46  20.63   
 Close  5,023.64  3.18   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  5,025.56  1.92   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  5,025.77  0.21   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,026.83  1.06   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  5,028.45  1.62   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,033.21  4.76   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  5,051.71  18.50   
 High  5,053.84  2.13   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  5,079.78  25.94   
 Weekly R1  5,098.45  18.67   
 Monthly R1  5,140.70  42.25   
 Weekly R2  5,173.25  32.56   
 Monthly R2  5,257.75  84.50   

Wednesday 4/29/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: Still Bearish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

An ascending triangle appears in the index, outlined here in red. The breakout from a triangle is often upward, but the chart pattern indicator issued a bearish signal over a week ago.

See the next chart.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The bearish signal that happened over a week ago still remains.

The indicator is climbing (it's neutral now) and it may turn to green (bullish) if the market cooperates.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/28/15. Dow Falling Wedge

The index dropped by -0.2% or -42.17 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1137 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 569 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 568 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 91/152 or 59.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/43 or 53.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

A falling wedge appears on the chart outlined in red.

A falling wedge sports two trendlines that hug a converging price movement, both of the trendlines slope downward.

Breakouts from a falling wedge are upward 68% of the time.

Will this wedge breakout upward, too? My guess is yes, and that agrees with the above probabilities, too.

If I'm wrong, then I would expect to see the index drop to 17,950, or about 100 points lower.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,314.40    
 Monthly S1  17,676.18  361.79   
 Weekly S2  17,712.21  36.03   
 Weekly S1  17,875.09  162.88   
 Daily S2  17,928.50  53.41   
 Monthly Pivot  17,941.06  12.56   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  17,983.23  42.18   
 Weekly Pivot  18,004.06  20.83   
 Low  18,024.66  20.60   
 Close  18,037.97  13.31   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  18,079.40  41.43   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,082.30  2.91   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  18,097.89  15.59   
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,100.11  2.22   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,117.92  17.81   
 Daily R1  18,134.13  16.22   
 Weekly R1  18,166.94  32.81   
 High  18,175.56  8.62   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  18,230.30  54.74   
 Weekly R2  18,295.91  65.61   
 Monthly R1  18,302.84  6.93   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  18,567.72  264.87   

Monday 4/27/15. Market Monday: Utilities Ascending Triangle

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utility index on the daily scale.

This is a fun chart because it shows am ascending triangle, outlined here in red.

Ascending triangles form between two borders, flat on the top and sloping upward along the bottom. The breakout from these is upward 70% of the time according to a study of them I conducted for my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition , shown here on the left.

Will this break out upward? That is hard to say but my guess is yes, it will.

That suggests a rising trend for the other indices, too. Temper that with earnings season that could make the ride upward a bumpy one plus the European problem with Greece and everything else that traders worry about.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 208.63 points.
Tuesday: Down 85.34 points.
Wednesday: Up 88.68 points.
Thursday: Up 20.42 points.
Friday: Up 21.45 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 253.84 points or 1.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 160.27 points or 3.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 36.51 points or 1.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.1% down from the high of 18,288.63 on 03/02/2015.
     6.1% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     0.2% down from the high of 5,100.37 on 04/24/2015.
     11.6% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 2,120.92 on 04/24/2015.
     6.9% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
Gross domestic product8:30 WBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Rate decision2:00 W?The Federal Reserves reports on interest rate changes.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Personal income & consumption8:30 ThC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 ThC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 ThBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Construction spending10:00 FDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Michigan sentiment10:00 FB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.
Auto & truck sales5:00 FC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/24/2015, the CPI had:

23 bearish patterns,
19 bullish patterns,
273 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 45.2%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,966  18,023  18,066  18,123  18,166 
Weekly  17,726  17,903  18,018  18,195  18,310 
Monthly  17,328  17,704  17,955  18,331  18,582 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,109  2,113  2,117  2,121  2,125 
Weekly  2,071  2,094  2,108  2,131  2,144 
Monthly  2,019  2,068  2,095  2,144  2,170 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,072  5,082  5,091  5,101  5,110 
Weekly  4,901  4,996  5,048  5,144  5,196 
Monthly  4,732  4,912  5,006  5,186  5,281 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 43.5%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 52.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 53.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 44.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 48.0%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bullish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
42Triangle, symmetrical
15Triangle, descending
12Rising wedge
11Head-and-shoulders bottom
11Triangle, ascending
6Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
6Diamond top
5Rectangle top
3Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
3Pipe bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Human Resources1. Human Resources
2. Drug2. Retail Building Supply
3. Retail Building Supply3. Drug
4. Biotechnology4. Biotechnology
5. Information Services5. Homebuilding
50. Machinery50. Metals and Mining (Div.)
51. Metal Fabricating51. Metal Fabricating
52. Petroleum (Producing)52. Petroleum (Producing)
53. Short ETFs53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment54. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Saturday 4/25/15. Do Tall Candle Shadows Predict Turns?

Picture of a flower.

Does a tall shadow suggest the stock will turn? Yes, but not in the way you expect.

I found that candles with tall lower shadows experience price declines over the coming month. Candles with short lower shadows saw price rise during the next month.

Candles with short or tall upper shadows did not see any difference: price climbed regardless.

If there is one thing you take away from this study it is that short lower shadows strongly suggest price will rise.

For more information on this, read the full article here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/24/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 41 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 591 stocks searched, or 6.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 17 bullish chart patterns this week and 12 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABTDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/01/201504/17/2015Medical Supplies
ACXMTriangle, descending      02/05/201504/23/2015Computer Software and Svcs
GASDiamond top      04/06/201504/23/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
ALBPennant      04/10/201504/23/2015Chemical (Diversified)
AEETriangle, symmetrical      02/25/201504/23/2015Electric Utility (Central)
AONTriangle, descending      03/11/201504/23/2015Insurance (Diversified)
ADMRectangle top      04/07/201504/23/2015Food Processing
ASNARising wedge      01/09/201504/23/2015Apparel
BCPCBroadening bottom      03/10/201504/22/2015Chemical (Specialty)
CNLRectangle bottom      02/05/201504/23/2015Electric Utility (Central)
CSCRectangle bottom      03/26/201504/23/2015Computer Software and Svcs
XRAYTriangle, descending      02/09/201504/17/2015Medical Supplies
^DJTHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/26/201504/17/2015None
^DJITriangle, symmetrical      03/02/201504/22/2015None
DRising wedge      03/19/201504/23/2015Electric Utility (East)
EFIIRising wedge      02/26/201504/23/2015Computers and Peripherals
HBITriangle, ascending      03/23/201504/23/2015Apparel
ICONDead-cat bounce      04/20/201504/20/2015Shoe
LXUScallop, ascending      03/23/201504/23/2015Building Materials
MDTRoof      03/12/201504/17/2015Medical Supplies
MRKTriangle, symmetrical      03/12/201504/23/2015Drug
MWWRectangle top      03/17/201504/23/2015Advertising
^IXICDiamond top      03/02/201504/20/2015None
NEETriangle, descending      03/19/201504/23/2015Electric Utility (East)
PKETriangle, descending      01/22/201504/23/2015Chemical (Specialty)
PDLITriangle, ascending      02/19/201504/23/2015Biotechnology
PFETriangle, ascending      03/23/201504/23/2015Drug
PNWTriangle, descending      03/19/201504/23/2015Electric Utility (West)
PGTriangle, symmetrical      02/18/201504/22/2015Household Products
PEGTriangle, symmetrical      01/22/201504/23/2015Electric Utility (East)
RMBSBroadening wedge, ascending      03/25/201504/21/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
^GSPCTriangle, symmetrical      02/25/201504/17/2015None
SMTCFalling wedge      03/04/201504/23/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
SODARising wedge      03/23/201504/22/2015Food Processing
SCCOTriangle, symmetrical      02/18/201504/23/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
UGIPennant      04/15/201504/23/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
SOXXRising wedge      03/30/201504/23/2015Semiconductor
EWTTriangle, symmetrical      03/10/201504/22/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
XLFDiamond top      02/09/201504/23/2015Investment Co. (Domestic)
XLKHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      03/13/201504/17/2015Investment Co. (Domestic)
XLUTriangle, symmetrical      03/11/201504/23/2015Electric Utility (Central)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/16/2015 and 04/23/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 194 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $48.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.53 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.64%
Volume: 6,371,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,558,966 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 04/01/2015 to 04/17/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Acxiom Corp (ACXM)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 258 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $18.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.50 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.18%
Volume: 538,000 shares. 3 month avg: 409,577 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/05/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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AGL Resources Inc (GAS)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 489 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $50.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $52.21 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.32%
Volume: 563,100 shares. 3 month avg: 817,632 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/06/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Albemarle Corp. (ALB)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 334 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $58.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.40 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.96%
Volume: 756,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,646,174 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 04/10/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Ameren (AEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 390 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $41.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.28 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.15%
Volume: 1,181,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,807,323 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/25/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Aon Corp (AON)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 158 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $97.41
1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $100.42 or 3.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.72%
Volume: 742,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,171,851 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/11/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 350 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $48.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.54 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.17%
Volume: 2,298,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,838,945 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 04/07/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 93 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $15.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.95 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.42%
Volume: 1,055,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,518,640 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/09/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Balchem Corp (BCPC)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 494 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $54.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.34 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.77%
Volume: 201,200 shares. 3 month avg: 183,208 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 03/10/2015 to 04/22/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Cleco Corp (CNL)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 395 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $54.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.29 or 1.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.07%
Volume: 146,400 shares. 3 month avg: 399,715 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 02/05/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Computer Sciences Corp (CSC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 250 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $65.65
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.04 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.12%
Volume: 771,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,577,774 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 03/26/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Dentsply International, Inc. (XRAY)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 219 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $52.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $53.97 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.16%
Volume: 574,300 shares. 3 month avg: 902,720 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/09/2015 to 04/17/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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DJ 20 Transportation (^DJT)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/23/15 close: $8,904.68
1 Month avg volatility: $97.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8,600.89 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.57%
Volume: 18,313,000 shares. 3 month avg: 14,725,966 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 03/26/2015 to 04/17/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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DJ 30 Industrials (^DJI)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/23/15 close: $18,058.69
1 Month avg volatility: $183.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17,599.89 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.32%
Volume: 100,244,900 shares. 3 month avg: 101,844,135 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/02/2015 to 04/22/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dominion Resources Inc. (D)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 367 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $73.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $75.54 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.81%
Volume: 2,067,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,801,312 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/19/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Electronics For Imaging, Inc. (EFII)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 349 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $43.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $44.87 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.65%
Volume: 410,100 shares. 3 month avg: 355,926 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/26/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Hanesbrand Inc. (HBI)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 87 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $34.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.98 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.92%
Volume: 3,400,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,830,437 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/23/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Iconix Brand Group Inc. (ICON)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 567 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $26.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.37 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.78%
Volume: 995,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,363,058 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 04/20/2015 to 04/20/2015

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LSB Industries Inc (LXU)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 86 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $44.93
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.00 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 42.91%
Volume: 365,300 shares. 3 month avg: 154,366 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 03/23/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Medtronic Inc (MDT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 146 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $78.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $81.13 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.73%
Volume: 4,701,700 shares. 3 month avg: 7,512,975 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof reversal pattern from 03/12/2015 to 04/17/2015
Breakout is downward 84% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 68% of the time.

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Merck and Co., Inc. (MRK)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 382 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $57.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.36 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.27%
Volume: 8,342,300 shares. 3 month avg: 11,142,240 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/12/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 8 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $6.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.04 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 40.26%
Volume: 807,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,787,854 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/17/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/23/15 close: $5,056.06
1 Month avg volatility: $46.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5,165.86 or 2.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.76%
Volume: 0 shares. Could not calculate the 3 month avg volume.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 03/02/2015 to 04/20/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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NextEra Energy Inc (NEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 310 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $104.28
1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $107.52 or 3.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.89%
Volume: 1,685,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,196,166 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/19/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Park Electrochemical (PKE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 507 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $21.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.27 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.72%
Volume: 58,800 shares. 3 month avg: 67,403 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 01/22/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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PDL BioPharma Inc (PDLI)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 535 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $7.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.66 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.78%
Volume: 2,935,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,739,628 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/19/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 112 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $35.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.87 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.52%
Volume: 22,453,600 shares. 3 month avg: 29,349,072 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/23/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 309 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $63.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $65.83 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.11%
Volume: 519,700 shares. 3 month avg: 859,694 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/19/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Procter and Gamble Co (PG)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 465 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $80.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.96 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.13%
Volume: 14,554,100 shares. 3 month avg: 8,667,135 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/18/2015 to 04/22/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Public Service Enterprise Group PEG (PEG)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 312 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $41.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.25 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.33%
Volume: 2,313,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,155,466 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/22/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Rambus Inc (RMBS)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 44 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $14.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.31 or 7.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 28.90%
Volume: 804,200 shares. 3 month avg: 687,031 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 03/25/2015 to 04/21/2015
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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S and P 500 (^GSPC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/23/15 close: $2,112.93
1 Month avg volatility: $18.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2,066.35 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.62%
Volume: 566,843,500 shares. 3 month avg: 562,747,115 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/25/2015 to 04/17/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Semtech Corp (SMTC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 281 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $25.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.09 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.51%
Volume: 483,100 shares. 3 month avg: 435,935 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 03/04/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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SodaStream International Ltd (SODA)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 475 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $19.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.19 or 12.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.64%
Volume: 639,700 shares. 3 month avg: 547,889 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/23/2015 to 04/22/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Southern Copper (SCCO)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 403 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $30.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.14 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.88%
Volume: 1,028,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,642,777 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/18/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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UGI Corp. (UGI)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $35.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.60 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.21%
Volume: 1,420,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,170,609 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 04/15/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector (SOXX)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 180 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $95.38
1 Month avg volatility: $1.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $98.61 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.68%
Volume: 196,300 shares. 3 month avg: 252,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/30/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 295 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $16.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.14 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.53%
Volume: 14,776,800 shares. 3 month avg: 8,178,948 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/10/2015 to 04/22/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SPDR Financial Select Sector (XLF)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 324 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $24.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.84 or 2.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.66%
Volume: 21,317,400 shares. 3 month avg: 31,469,203 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 02/09/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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SPDR Technology Select Sector (XLK)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 262 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $42.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.50 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.41%
Volume: 5,857,400 shares. 3 month avg: 8,352,609 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex bottom reversal pattern from 03/13/2015 to 04/17/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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SPDR Utilities Select Sector (XLU)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 414 out of 583
4/23/15 close: $44.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.07 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.34%
Volume: 9,212,400 shares. 3 month avg: 14,529,343 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/11/2015 to 04/23/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 4/23/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.4% or 21.07 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 546 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 347 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 199 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 84/141 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/59 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

When I first looked at this chart, one thing stuck out.

Look at the move to A below the red line. Now look at the move from the green line up to B.

Both are about 15 points.

This is similar to the measure rule for trendlines. Read the link for more information.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,751.54    
 Weekly S2  4,878.66  127.13   
 Monthly S1  4,893.35  14.69   
 Weekly S1  4,956.92  63.56   
 Monthly Pivot  4,967.75  10.83   
 Daily S2  4,974.78  7.04   
 Weekly Pivot  4,990.58  15.80   
 Low  4,992.62  2.04   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S1  5,004.98  12.36   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,010.97  5.99   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,016.63  5.67   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,022.30  5.67   
 Daily Pivot  5,022.81  0.51   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  5,026.57  3.76   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  5,035.17  8.60   
 High  5,040.65  5.48   
 Daily R1  5,053.01  12.36   
 Weekly R1  5,068.84  15.83   
 Daily R2  5,070.84  2.01   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  5,102.50  31.66   
 Monthly R1  5,109.56  7.06   
 Monthly R2  5,183.96  74.39   

Wednesday 4/22/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This chart is hard to see that a signal change has occurred, so let's look at the next chart.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The red (bearish) signal occurred four days ago, pushing the indicator out of the neutral zone. But that signal lasted all of two days and we're now back into the neutral zone (white bands).

I think the transition from red to white is bullish. It suggests a transition to green soon. But the signal isn't final for 7 days. That means the two red bars can disappear or the white area can turn red or even green.

The indicator is heading down, though, toward another bearish signal. Perhaps good earnings will shoot the market up, cementing green bars in place.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/21/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 1.2% or 208.63 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 292 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 159 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 133 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 91/151 or 60.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/43 or 53.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I drew a red line marking horizontal resistance. Or is it support? Both can happen depending on which side the index approaches the line.

It tells me of indecision since the line straddles resistance. The down-sloping move for much of the day reminds me of a pennant. The breakout from a pennant can be in any direction but it leans toward upward 61% of the time.

It's earnings season, so the market is going to bounce around.

I show green lines where the index might rise to or fall to. It could exceed those right at the open, so be sure to check futures before the open. Large values (above or below 50 or even 100) signal the market will gap open. It often tells whether day traders should be long or short.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,313.38    
 Weekly S2  17,563.51  250.13   
 Monthly S1  17,674.16  110.65   
 Daily S2  17,738.40  64.25   
 Weekly S1  17,799.22  60.82   
 Low  17,841.18  41.96   
 Open  17,841.18  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  17,886.67  45.49   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,937.08  50.41   
 Monthly Pivot  17,940.04  2.96   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,966.70  26.66   
 Weekly Pivot  17,984.24  17.54   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  17,989.44  5.20   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,996.32  6.88   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  18,034.93  38.61   
 High  18,092.22  57.29   
 Daily R1  18,137.71  45.49   
 Weekly R1  18,219.95  82.24   
 Daily R2  18,240.48  20.53   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Monthly R1  18,300.82  60.33   
 Weekly R2  18,404.97  104.15   
 Monthly R2  18,566.70  161.73   

Monday 4/20/15. S&P Symmetrical Triangle

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

There is not much to see. The chart shows a symmetrical triangle outlined in red. The breakout from this chart pattern is often upward (54% of the time, so it's random).

My concern is that this could breakout downward. Why?

The chart pattern indicator flipped to bearish several days ago and that suggests underlying weakness in the market.

If it does breakout downward, I don't expect a large decline, but it could easily reach 2000.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 80.61 points.
Tuesday: Up 59.66 points.
Wednesday: Up 75.91 points.
Thursday: Down 6.84 points.
Friday: Down 279.47 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 231.35 points or 1.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 64.17 points or 1.3%.
The S&P 500 index was down 20.88 points or 1.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.5% down from the high of 18,288.63 on 03/02/2015.
     4.6% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     2.2% down from the high of 5,042.14 on 03/20/2015.
     8.1% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     1.8% down from the high of 2,119.59 on 02/25/2015.
     5.1% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Existing home sales10:00 WCCounts sales of used homes.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
New home sales10:00 ThC+Shows sales of single-family homes.
Durable goods orders8:30 FBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/17/2015, the CPI had:

103 bearish patterns,
2 bullish patterns,
271 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 1.9%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 3 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,538  17,682  17,892  18,036  18,246 
Weekly  17,494  17,660  17,915  18,081  18,335 
Monthly  17,244  17,535  17,871  18,162  18,497 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,055  2,068  2,085  2,098  2,116 
Weekly  2,049  2,065  2,088  2,105  2,128 
Monthly  2,005  2,043  2,079  2,117  2,153 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,878  4,905  4,939  4,966  5,001 
Weekly  4,844  4,888  4,956  5,000  5,068 
Monthly  4,717  4,824  4,933  5,041  5,150 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.7%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 52.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.0%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 53.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 29.8%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 48.0%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bullish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
36Triangle, symmetrical
10Triangle, descending
9Head-and-shoulders bottom
9Triangle, ascending
8Rising wedge
6Double Top, Adam and Adam
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
5Rectangle top
5Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
4Head-and-shoulders top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Human Resources1. Human Resources
2. Retail Building Supply2. Retail Building Supply
3. Drug3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Biotechnology4. Drug
5. Homebuilding5. Homebuilding
50. Metals and Mining (Div.)50. Metal Fabricating
51. Metal Fabricating51. Natural Gas (Diversified)
52. Petroleum (Producing)52. Petroleum (Producing)
53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment53. Short ETFs
54. Short ETFs54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Saturday 4/18/15. Sell in May and Go Away?

Should you sell your stocks in May and go away? And if so, for how long?

I took at look at answering these questions with my own stocks. You can read what I found at the link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/17/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 34 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 591 stocks searched, or 5.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 23 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISTriangle, symmetrical      03/03/201504/15/2015Semiconductor
ALKFalling wedge      03/10/201504/16/2015Air Transport
AEPTriangle, symmetrical      03/13/201504/16/2015Electric Utility (Central)
ANIKTriangle, symmetrical      03/20/201504/16/2015Biotechnology
ATRTriangle, symmetrical      03/17/201504/16/2015Packaging and Container
BMSBroadening wedge, descending      03/18/201504/10/2015Packaging and Container
BBYHead-and-shoulders top      02/19/201504/10/2015Retail (Special Lines)
BLDRFlag, high and tight      03/11/201504/14/2015Retail Building Supply
CRLTriangle, symmetrical      03/26/201504/16/2015Biotechnology
CLNEScallop, ascending      02/27/201504/16/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
CNOTriangle, symmetrical      04/02/201504/16/2015Insurance (Diversified)
CLTriangle, symmetrical      03/24/201504/16/2015Household Products
CREEHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/27/201504/14/2015Semiconductor
^DJUTriangle, ascending      03/11/201504/15/2015None
ELTriangle, symmetrical      03/25/201504/16/2015Toiletries/Cosmetics
FLIRTriangle, descending      03/26/201504/16/2015Aerospace/Defense
GDHead-and-shoulders top      03/20/201504/10/2015Aerospace/Defense
GFFTriangle, ascending      03/20/201504/13/2015Building Materials
HHSTriangle, descending      01/30/201504/15/2015Advertising
HLTriangle, symmetrical      03/25/201504/14/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
HONTriangle, symmetrical      03/20/201504/16/2015Aerospace/Defense
IEXRising wedge      03/18/201504/16/2015Machinery
KALUTriangle, ascending      02/24/201504/16/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
LAMRRising wedge      03/05/201504/16/2015Advertising
MWWRectangle top      03/09/201504/16/2015Advertising
NKETriangle, symmetrical      03/26/201504/16/2015Shoe
PKEFalling wedge      03/24/201504/16/2015Chemical (Specialty)
TETriangle, descending      03/23/201504/16/2015Electric Utility (East)
TMOTriangle, symmetrical      03/31/201504/16/2015Precision Instrument
TREXChannel      01/02/201504/16/2015Building Materials
UNMTriangle, symmetrical      03/06/201504/16/2015Insurance (Diversified)
PAYTriangle, ascending      02/20/201504/16/2015Computer Software and Svcs
ITARoof, inverted      02/23/201504/16/2015Aerospace/Defense
TURHorn top      03/23/201504/06/2015Long ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/09/2015 and 04/16/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 31 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $25.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.05 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.73%
Volume: 219,000 shares. 3 month avg: 379,806 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/03/2015 to 04/15/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 26 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $63.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.51 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.26%
Volume: 1,599,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,519,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 03/10/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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American Electric Power AEP (AEP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 439 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $55.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.60 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.02%
Volume: 2,762,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,793,722 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/13/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Anika Therapeutics Inc (ANIK)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 266 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $40.69
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.10 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.12%
Volume: 94,000 shares. 3 month avg: 152,872 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/20/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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AptarGroup Inc (ATR)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 321 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $63.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.32 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.73%
Volume: 380,500 shares. 3 month avg: 326,162 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/17/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Bemis Co Inc (BMS)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 232 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $44.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.45 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.90%
Volume: 899,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,073,249 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 03/18/2015 to 04/10/2015
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Best Buy Co. (BBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 205 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $37.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.19 or 5.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.59%
Volume: 3,607,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,859,662 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 02/19/2015 to 04/10/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 1 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $13.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.51 or 10.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 102.47%
Volume: 2,275,800 shares. 3 month avg: 749,603 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/11/2015 to 04/14/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Charles River Labs Intl (CRL)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 69 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $78.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $75.01 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.94%
Volume: 223,500 shares. 3 month avg: 495,494 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/26/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 379 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $7.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.28 or 12.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 43.44%
Volume: 2,777,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,771,689 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 02/27/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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CNO Financial Group, Inc (CNO)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 325 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $17.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.91 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.02%
Volume: 1,062,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,758,369 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/02/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 337 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $70.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $67.88 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.29%
Volume: 2,166,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,099,095 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/24/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cree Inc (CREE)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 363 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $35.56
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.03 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.35%
Volume: 1,245,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,818,111 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 03/27/2015 to 04/14/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/16/15 close: $585.29
1 Month avg volatility: $8.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $564.32 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.31%
Volume: 12,019,500 shares. 3 month avg: 13,349,189 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/11/2015 to 04/15/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Estee Lauder, Cos (EL)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 243 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $83.92
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.47 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.13%
Volume: 821,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,890,545 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/25/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 414 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $30.64
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.26 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.17%
Volume: 521,900 shares. 3 month avg: 681,975 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/26/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 299 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $133.15
1 Month avg volatility: $2.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $137.91 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.25%
Volume: 1,352,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,515,818 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/20/2015 to 04/10/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 14 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $17.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.53 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.38%
Volume: 216,700 shares. 3 month avg: 176,957 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/20/2015 to 04/13/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Harte-Hanks Inc (HHS)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 84 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $7.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.24 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.39%
Volume: 169,600 shares. 3 month avg: 149,282 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 01/30/2015 to 04/15/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Hecla Mining Co. (HL)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 119 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $3.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.95 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.13%
Volume: 3,813,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,211,528 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/25/2015 to 04/14/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 188 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $103.92
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $100.21 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.00%
Volume: 3,349,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,911,258 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/20/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Idex Corp (IEX)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 283 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $76.78
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.62 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.36%
Volume: 246,200 shares. 3 month avg: 344,577 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/18/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 406 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $77.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.51 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.99%
Volume: 195,100 shares. 3 month avg: 303,826 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/24/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Lamar Advertising (LAMR)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 134 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $60.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.91 or 2.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.42%
Volume: 533,400 shares. 3 month avg: 849,632 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/05/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 88 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $6.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.02 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 40.48%
Volume: 895,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,803,872 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/09/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Nike Inc (NKE)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 241 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $99.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $96.55 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.90%
Volume: 2,048,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,691,522 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/26/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Park Electrochemical (PKE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $21.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.09 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.20%
Volume: 99,900 shares. 3 month avg: 68,262 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 03/24/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Teco Energy Inc (TE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 393 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $19.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.17 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.32%
Volume: 1,234,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,087,866 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/23/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Thermo Electron Corp (TMO)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 216 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $132.49
1 Month avg volatility: $2.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $128.27 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.75%
Volume: 1,547,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,693,183 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/31/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Trex Company (TREX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 21 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $51.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.38 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.24%
Volume: 208,000 shares. 3 month avg: 282,163 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/02/2015 to 04/16/2015

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Unum Group (UNM)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 380 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $34.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.74 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.44%
Volume: 1,059,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,610,162 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/06/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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VeriFone Systems, Inc (PAY)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 180 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $35.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.46 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.63%
Volume: 662,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,487,965 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/20/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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DJ US Aerospace and defense (ITA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 190 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $124.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.25. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $127.38 or 2.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.54%
Volume: 23,600 shares. 3 month avg: 72,480 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 02/23/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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MSCI Turkey Index (TUR)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 511 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $46.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $47.93 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.17%
Volume: 683,600 shares. 3 month avg: 454,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 03/23/2015 to 04/06/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 7%.
Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thursday 4/16/15.Nasdaq Double Top?

The index climbed by 0.7% or 33.73 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 381 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 240 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 141 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 84/140 or 60.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/59 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A and B mark a potential chart pattern called a double top, but is it?

No. Why?

Because the chart pattern hasn't confirmed yet. That means the index needs to close below the horizontal red line drawn at the low between the two peaks.

Look back at CD. This is also a potential twin peak pattern and yet the index resumed its up move instead of closing below the blue line. An upward move is what I expect to happen this time, too.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,743.49    
 Weekly S2  4,810.17  66.68   
 Monthly S1  4,877.25  67.09   
 Weekly S1  4,910.59  33.34   
 Weekly Pivot  4,953.34  42.74   
 Monthly Pivot  4,959.70  6.36   
 Daily S2  4,975.20  15.50   
 Low  4,989.24  14.04   
 Open  4,992.62  3.38   
 Daily S1  4,993.11  0.49   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,001.44  8.33   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,005.21  3.77   
 Daily Pivot  5,007.15  1.94   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,008.98  1.83   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  5,011.02  2.04   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  5,021.19  10.17   
 Daily R1  5,025.06  3.87   
 Daily R2  5,039.10  14.04   
 Weekly R1  5,053.76  14.66   
 Monthly R1  5,093.46  39.70   
 Weekly R2  5,096.51  3.04   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  5,175.91  79.40   

Wednesday 4/15/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows two interesting patterns. The chart pattern indicator (bottom line) shows an ascending triangle. Since the CPI is at the top of its range, the breakout from this triangle will be downward.

The price chart shows a symmetrical triangle the breakout from which can be any direction.

When you combine the interpretation of the two, it suggests a move down in the index.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

This view of the chart shows the indicator is still bullish (green bars).

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/14/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.4% or -80.61 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 873 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 443 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 430 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 90/150 or 60.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/43 or 53.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I drew four red lines following the Dow higher over the last 10 days.

If you consider that this is an Elliot motive wave that is a stair-stop move higher (in this case), then we are in store for another up day soon (the missing wave 5). Maybe on Tuesday.

I prefer to view this as a measured move up (1-3) with a retrace to the corrective phase (4). That suggests another move upward.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,294.09    
 Weekly S2  17,476.91  182.82   
 Monthly S1  17,635.56  158.66   
 Weekly S1  17,726.97  91.41   
 Daily S2  17,887.05  160.07   
 Weekly Pivot  17,896.87  9.82   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Monthly Pivot  17,920.75  23.88   
 Daily S1  17,932.04  11.30   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Low  17,974.81  42.77   
 Close  17,977.04  2.23   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  18,019.81  42.77   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,025.52  5.72   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,041.19  15.67   
 Open  18,052.32  11.13   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,056.86  4.54   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  18,064.80  7.95   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  18,107.57  42.77   
 Weekly R1  18,146.93  39.36   
 Daily R2  18,152.57  5.63   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Monthly R1  18,262.22  109.66   
 Weekly R2  18,316.83  54.60   
 Monthly R2  18,547.41  230.58   

Monday 4/13/15. Market Monday: Nasdaq Head-and-Shoulders?

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

The chart appears to show a head-and-shoulders top. The left shoulder is "LS," the Head is, well, "Head," and the right shoulder is "RS?".

Is it a head-and-shoulders top?

No. Why not?

Because the pattern needs to close below the horizontal red line at A. Before that time, it is just squiggles on the price chart. But it does suggest the coming week could be bumpy for the Nasdaq.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 117.61 points.
Tuesday: Down 5.43 points.
Wednesday: Up 27.09 points.
Thursday: Up 56.22 points.
Friday: Up 98.92 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 294.41 points or 1.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 109.04 points or 2.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 35.1 points or 1.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.3% down from the high of 18,288.63 on 03/02/2015.
     6.0% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     0.9% down from the high of 5,042.14 on 03/20/2015.
     9.5% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     0.8% down from the high of 2,119.59 on 02/25/2015.
     6.1% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Retail sales8:30 TA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
Producer price index8:30 TB-Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation.
Business inventories10:00 TC-Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.
Industrial production9:15 WB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Capacity utilization9:15 WB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FEDs Beige book2:00 W?Reports on economic conditions.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Housing starts8:30 ThB-Number of homes beginning construction.
Building permits8:30 ThB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Consumer price index8:30 FB+Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services.
Leading indicators10:00 FD-Summary of already known reports.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/10/2015, the CPI had:

7 bearish patterns,
22 bullish patterns,
405 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 75.9%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,902  17,980  18,023  18,101  18,145 
Weekly  17,504  17,781  17,924  18,201  18,344 
Monthly  17,321  17,689  17,948  18,316  18,574 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,088  2,095  2,099  2,106  2,110 
Weekly  2,041  2,072  2,087  2,118  2,133 
Monthly  2,010  2,056  2,086  2,131  2,161 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,961  4,979  4,987  5,005  5,013 
Weekly  4,805  4,901  4,948  5,044  5,091 
Monthly  4,738  4,867  4,955  5,083  5,171 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 31.0%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 52.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 29.9%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 53.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 44.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 48.0%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bullish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 3 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
27Triangle, symmetrical
22Pipe bottom
19Scallop, ascending and inverted
8Head-and-shoulders bottom
8Triangle, descending
7Rising wedge
6Double Top, Adam and Adam
6Triangle, ascending
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
5Rectangle top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Human Resources1. Human Resources
2. Retail Building Supply2. Retail Building Supply
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Drug4. Drug
5. Homebuilding5. Biotechnology
50. Metal Fabricating50. Petroleum (Integrated)
51. Natural Gas (Diversified)51. Short ETFs
52. Petroleum (Producing)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Short ETFs53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Saturday 4/11/15. Should You Scale Out?

Imagine that you own stock and want to sell. Should you sell a portion of your holdings or all at once?

On one level, the answer seems clear cut.

If you sell a portion of them when the stock is rising, you would make more by selling them all at a higher price. If the stock is dropping then selling only a portion means a larger loss.

I took a look at scaling out and you can read my findings here.

My book, Trading Basics, pictured on the left, discusses scaling into and out of positions starting on page 21. The text includes performance statistics to prove what I say.

If you click on this link and then buy the book (or anything) at Amazon.com, the referral will help support this site. Thanks.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/10/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 32 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 591 stocks searched, or 5.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 16 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
APDTriangle, symmetrical      03/26/201504/09/2015Chemical (Diversified)
AELTriangle, symmetrical      12/31/201404/09/2015Insurance (Life)
ATRTriangle, descending      03/17/201504/09/2015Packaging and Container
ARWRPipe bottom      03/23/201503/30/2015Biotechnology
AIZDiamond bottom      02/25/201504/07/2015Insurance (Diversified)
BCPCDiamond bottom      03/10/201504/09/2015Chemical (Specialty)
BLDRRectangle top      01/02/201504/09/2015Retail Building Supply
CXTriangle, ascending      12/30/201404/09/2015Cement and Aggregates
CHDTriangle, ascending      02/25/201504/09/2015Household Products
COSTTriangle, symmetrical      03/18/201504/08/2015Retail Store
ETFCDiamond top      03/09/201504/08/2015Securities Brokerage
FISTriangle, symmetrical      02/20/201504/09/2015Computer Software and Svcs
GFFTriangle, ascending      03/20/201504/06/2015Building Materials
HSICTriangle, symmetrical      03/13/201504/09/2015Medical Supplies
HSYTriangle, symmetrical      03/11/201504/09/2015Food Processing
HGGTriangle, symmetrical      01/28/201504/09/2015Retail (Special Lines)
KELYAChannel      02/17/201504/09/2015Human Resources
LBTriangle, ascending      03/25/201504/09/2015Apparel
LAMRRising wedge      03/05/201504/09/2015Advertising
MASDiamond top      02/27/201504/09/2015Building Materials
MWWTriangle, descending      03/03/201504/09/2015Advertising
PFGTriangle, symmetrical      03/02/201504/09/2015Insurance (Diversified)
SLGNTriangle, symmetrical      03/11/201504/09/2015Packaging and Container
SFGRising wedge      02/13/201504/09/2015Insurance (Life)
TPXTriangle, symmetrical      03/20/201504/09/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
TSCOTriangle, descending      02/24/201504/09/2015Retail Building Supply
ZEPTriangle, descending      03/24/201504/07/2015Chemical (Specialty)
ITARoof, inverted      02/23/201504/09/2015Aerospace/Defense
IHITriangle, symmetrical      03/10/201504/08/2015Medical Supplies
IDUTriangle, symmetrical      03/11/201504/09/2015Electric Utility (Central)
IHFTriangle, symmetrical      03/24/201504/08/2015Long ETFs
EWDTriangle, symmetrical      02/27/201504/09/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
IEVRising wedge      02/25/201504/09/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/02/2015 and 04/09/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 154 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $152.05
1 Month avg volatility: $2.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $146.09 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.42%
Volume: 541,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,019,054 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/26/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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American Equity Investment Life Holding (AEL)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 67 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $29.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.88 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.41%
Volume: 555,800 shares. 3 month avg: 385,180 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/31/2014 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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AptarGroup Inc (ATR)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 335 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $63.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $65.07 or 2.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.25%
Volume: 191,300 shares. 3 month avg: 327,163 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/17/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Arrowhead Research Corp (ARWR)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 229 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $7.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.06 or 11.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.72%
Volume: 1,257,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,941,635 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/23/2015 to 03/30/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/12/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/13/2015 and a 38% chance by 07/13/2015.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Assurant Inc (AIZ)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 443 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $61.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.62 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.69%
Volume: 304,400 shares. 3 month avg: 608,369 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 02/25/2015 to 04/07/2015
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Balchem Corp (BCPC)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 397 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $55.85
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.21 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.19%
Volume: 120,700 shares. 3 month avg: 178,289 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 03/10/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 83 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $6.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.43 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.44%
Volume: 245,300 shares. 3 month avg: 204,794 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 01/02/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Cemex SA de CV (CX)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 549 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $9.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.15 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.53%
Volume: 18,647,500 shares. 3 month avg: 14,671,454 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 12/30/2014 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Church and Dwight Co Inc (CHD)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 137 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $85.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $83.05 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.03%
Volume: 783,600 shares. 3 month avg: 672,385 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/25/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 195 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $148.81
1 Month avg volatility: $1.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $144.63 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.98%
Volume: 3,399,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,500,795 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/18/2015 to 04/08/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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E-Trade Financial Corp (ETFC)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 60 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $28.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.61 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.09%
Volume: 2,380,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,436,049 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 03/09/2015 to 04/08/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Fidelity National Information Svcs (FIS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 151 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $68.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.92 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.45%
Volume: 919,500 shares. 3 month avg: 999,071 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/20/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 19 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $17.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.43 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.45%
Volume: 204,400 shares. 3 month avg: 168,802 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/20/2015 to 04/06/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 124 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $141.80
1 Month avg volatility: $2.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $135.06 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.15%
Volume: 511,400 shares. 3 month avg: 712,538 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/13/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Hershey Company, The (HSY)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 314 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $100.74
1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $96.96 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.07%
Volume: 694,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,231,435 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/11/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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hhgregg, Inc (HGG)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 394 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $6.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.44 or 10.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.68%
Volume: 63,800 shares. 3 month avg: 229,994 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/28/2015 to 04/09/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/06/2015. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 07/07/2015.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Kelly Services A (KELYA)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 313 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $17.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.40 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.94%
Volume: 62,000 shares. 3 month avg: 136,195 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 02/17/2015 to 04/09/2015

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L Brands, Inc. (LB)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 37 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $94.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $90.63 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.19%
Volume: 1,182,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,725,277 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/25/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Lamar Advertising (LAMR)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 118 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $59.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.52 or 2.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.69%
Volume: 329,100 shares. 3 month avg: 873,460 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/05/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Masco Corp. (MAS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 240 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $26.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $27.48 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.40%
Volume: 1,922,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,692,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 02/27/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 98 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $6.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.80 or 7.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 37.45%
Volume: 994,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,853,723 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/03/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 401 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $51.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.79 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.04%
Volume: 947,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,349,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/02/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Silgan Holdings Inc (SLGN)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 143 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $58.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.88 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.23%
Volume: 121,600 shares. 3 month avg: 294,720 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/11/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Stancorp Financial Group Inc (SFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 267 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $69.27
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $71.93 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.84%
Volume: 148,000 shares. 3 month avg: 174,940 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/13/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Tempur-pedic Intl (TPX)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 331 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $57.38
1 Month avg volatility: $1.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.37 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.50%
Volume: 291,400 shares. 3 month avg: 938,365 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/20/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Tractor Supply Co (TSCO)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 28 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $86.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $89.13 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.11%
Volume: 910,300 shares. 3 month avg: 898,694 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/24/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Zep Inc. (ZEP)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 30 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $20.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $21.19 or 5.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 32.74%
Volume: 612,700 shares. 3 month avg: 110,449 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/24/2015 to 04/07/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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DJ US Aerospace and defense (ITA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 157 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $125.16
1 Month avg volatility: $1.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $128.23 or 2.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.13%
Volume: 55,300 shares. 3 month avg: 73,854 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 02/23/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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DJ US Medical devices index fund (IHI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 187 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $120.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $117.25 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.95%
Volume: 13,400 shares. 3 month avg: 103,902 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/10/2015 to 04/08/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ US Utilities sector index fund (IDU)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 375 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $111.52
1 Month avg volatility: $1.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $107.64 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.71%
Volume: 142,000 shares. 3 month avg: 453,480 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/11/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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iShares DJ US Healthcare Provider (IHF)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 99 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $134.02
1 Month avg volatility: $1.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $129.58 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.22%
Volume: 37,600 shares. 3 month avg: 70,974 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/24/2015 to 04/08/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MSCI Sweden Index (EWD)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 338 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $33.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.01 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.73%
Volume: 868,700 shares. 3 month avg: 282,702 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/27/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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S and P Europe 350 Index fund (IEV)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 369 out of 583
4/9/15 close: $45.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.35 or 2.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.80%
Volume: 643,100 shares. 3 month avg: 819,829 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/25/2015 to 04/09/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Thursday 4/9/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.8% or 40.59 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 363 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 243 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 120 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 66.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 83/139 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/59 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

On the chart appears a rising wedge. A rising wedge has price following two up-sloping and converging trendlines. The breakout from a rising wedge is frequently downward.

In fact, on the daily chart, the pattern breaks out downward 69% of the time. When you combine that statistic with overhead resistance shown by Monday a week ago (near 4950), I think the index will close lower tomorrow.

The above probabilities suggest otherwise.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,723.42    
 Weekly S2  4,810.49  87.07   
 Monthly S1  4,837.12  26.63   
 Weekly S1  4,880.65  43.53   
 Daily S2  4,897.99  17.34   
 Low  4,914.15  16.16   
 Open  4,914.15  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  4,914.56  0.41   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Daily S1  4,924.41  9.85   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,930.41  6.00   
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,935.44  5.02   
 Monthly Pivot  4,939.63  4.19   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,940.46  0.83   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  4,940.56  0.10   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  4,950.82  10.26   
 High  4,956.72  5.90   
 Daily R1  4,966.98  10.26   
 Daily R2  4,983.13  16.16   
 Weekly R1  4,984.72  1.59   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  5,018.63  33.90   
 Monthly R1  5,053.33  34.70   
 Monthly R2  5,155.84  102.51   

Wednesday 4/8/15. Symmetrical Triangle in the CPI

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I show two symmetrical triangles outlined in red. One appears on the index and the other on the indicator.

What does it mean? It says the market is unclear what direction it is going to move. It's going sideways in a trading range. But I also think the converging lines suggest a breakout is imminent.

Will the breakout be up or down? The next chart gives a clue.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

This chart shows that the indicator turned bullish three days ago. It suggests the market is going to move upward (breakout upward from the symmetrical triangle).

$ $ $

Met with my optometrist this afternoon and got the all clear. Whew! What a relief. I'm paranoid about losing my vision but everything is holding steady despite a family history of glaucoma.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/7/15. Dow's AI Scallop

The index climbed by 0.7% or 117.61 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 633 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 348 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 285 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 90/149 or 60.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/43 or 53.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

Outlined in red is an ascending and inverted scallop. These lesser-known patterns have price rising in a straight-line run before rounding over at the top and retracing a portion of that uphill run.

They breakout upward. If they don't, then they are not AI scallops.

It is a bit premature to call this an actual AI scallop since the index should close above the top of the pattern for confirmation. It looks to me that the index will retrace a bit more and then move higher to close the day up.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,206.89    
 Weekly S2  17,401.20  194.31   
 Daily S2  17,528.16  126.95   
 Monthly S1  17,543.87  15.71   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Weekly S1  17,641.03  97.16   
 Low  17,646.80  5.77   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  17,704.50  57.70   
 Open  17,755.50  51.00   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,759.49  3.99   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,794.29  34.81   
 Daily Pivot  17,823.15  28.85   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  17,824.83  1.69   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,829.10  4.27   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  17,880.85  51.75   
 Monthly Pivot  17,916.25  35.40   
 High  17,941.79  25.54   Yes! The High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily R1  17,999.49  57.71   
 Weekly R1  18,064.66  65.16   
 Daily R2  18,118.14  53.48   
 Weekly R2  18,248.46  130.33   
 Monthly R1  18,253.23  4.77   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  18,625.61  372.38   

Friday 4/3/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 21 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 591 stocks searched, or 3.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACETDiamond top      03/18/201504/02/2015Chemical (Diversified)
AIGBroadening top      02/18/201503/27/2015Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AAPLTriangle, symmetrical      03/12/201504/02/2015Computers and Peripherals
BIIBPipe top      03/23/201503/23/2015Biotechnology
CBTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/18/201503/27/2015Chemical (Diversified)
CVGRising wedge      03/02/201504/02/2015Computer Software and Svcs
DTERising wedge      03/05/201504/02/2015Electric Utility (Central)
ELNKRectangle top      12/22/201404/02/2015Internet
EXCHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/13/201503/27/2015Electric Utility (East)
FISTriangle, symmetrical      02/20/201504/02/2015Computer Software and Svcs
ITTriangle, symmetrical      02/04/201503/27/2015Information Services
IDAHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/13/201503/27/2015Electric Utility (West)
LGHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/13/201503/27/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
NIHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/17/201503/27/2015Electric Utility (Central)
PKETriangle, symmetrical      03/24/201504/02/2015Chemical (Specialty)
PFGTriangle, symmetrical      03/02/201504/02/2015Insurance (Diversified)
PEGTriangle, symmetrical      01/22/201503/31/2015Electric Utility (East)
KWRTriangle, symmetrical      02/02/201504/01/2015Chemical (Specialty)
^GSPCTriangle, symmetrical      03/11/201504/02/2015None
SWXHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/17/201503/27/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
RTHBroadening wedge, ascending      02/13/201504/02/2015Retail Store

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/26/2015 and 04/02/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 194 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $21.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.63 or 7.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.92%
Volume: 58,400 shares. 3 month avg: 133,455 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 03/18/2015 to 04/02/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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American International Group (AIG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 356 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $55.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $56.72 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.55%
Volume: 5,354,700 shares. 3 month avg: 8,961,420 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 02/18/2015 to 03/27/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 94 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $125.32
1 Month avg volatility: $2.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $119.29 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.54%
Volume: 32,184,600 shares. 3 month avg: 57,650,249 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/12/2015 to 04/02/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Biogen Idec (BIIB)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 86 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $412.44
1 Month avg volatility: $11.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $438.48 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.50%
Volume: 1,701,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,932,614 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 03/23/2015 to 03/23/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Cabot Corp. (CBT)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 475 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $45.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.06 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.21%
Volume: 401,200 shares. 3 month avg: 438,382 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2015 to 03/27/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Convergys Corporation (CVG)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 70 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $22.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.00 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.37%
Volume: 335,400 shares. 3 month avg: 491,174 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/02/2015 to 04/02/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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DTE Energy Company (DTE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 307 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $82.08
1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $85.00 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.97%
Volume: 1,520,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,102,580 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/05/2015 to 04/02/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Earthlink, Inc (ELNK)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 47 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $4.62
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.23 or 8.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.24%
Volume: 909,700 shares. 3 month avg: 741,335 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/22/2014 to 04/02/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Exelon Corp. (EXC)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 439 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $33.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.45 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.98%
Volume: 7,314,700 shares. 3 month avg: 7,321,820 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 02/13/2015 to 03/27/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Fidelity National Information Svcs (FIS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 132 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $68.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.70 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.45%
Volume: 924,700 shares. 3 month avg: 980,151 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/20/2015 to 04/02/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Gartner Inc (IT)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 226 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $83.31
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $80.69 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.07%
Volume: 328,400 shares. 3 month avg: 473,898 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/04/2015 to 03/27/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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IDACORP Inc (IDA)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 179 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $63.16
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.68 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.58%
Volume: 176,800 shares. 3 month avg: 267,506 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 02/13/2015 to 03/27/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Laclede Group (LG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 244 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $51.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.98 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.35%
Volume: 171,800 shares. 3 month avg: 209,366 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 02/13/2015 to 03/27/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Nisource Inc. (NI)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 302 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $44.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.42 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.10%
Volume: 2,338,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,102,894 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 02/17/2015 to 03/27/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Park Electrochemical (PKE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 467 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $21.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.30 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.92%
Volume: 53,900 shares. 3 month avg: 61,715 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/24/2015 to 04/02/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 381 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $51.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.12 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.02%
Volume: 786,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,338,985 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/02/2015 to 04/02/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Public Service Enterprise Group PEG (PEG)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 263 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $41.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.70 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.17%
Volume: 3,980,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,386,911 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/22/2015 to 03/31/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Quaker Chemical (KWR)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 116 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $86.26
1 Month avg volatility: $2.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.84 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.28%
Volume: 34,500 shares. 3 month avg: 68,402 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/02/2015 to 04/01/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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S and P 500 (^GSPC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/2/15 close: $2,066.96
1 Month avg volatility: $20.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2,015.55 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.39%
Volume: 484,704,300 shares. 3 month avg: 568,313,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/11/2015 to 04/02/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Southwest Gas Corp. (SWX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 137 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $58.82
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.20 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.84%
Volume: 135,800 shares. 3 month avg: 186,234 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 02/17/2015 to 03/27/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Market Vectors Retail (RTH)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 104 out of 583
4/2/15 close: $77.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.02 or 2.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.01%
Volume: 164,200 shares. 3 month avg: 107,954 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 02/13/2015 to 04/02/2015
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Thursday 4/2/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.4% or -20.65 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 397 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 197 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 200 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 83/139 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/58 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

When I first glanced at the chart on the right, I thought this is going to bounce back tomorrow (Thursday). Why?

I saw the quick move down at A. Sometimes, a quick rise follows a quick decline. This is especially true when associated with diamond tops and bottoms. A diamond does not appear on the chart, but the quick decline does (A).

Notice the consolidation region (flat movement) between A and B. Notice that the index perked up at B, meaning it closed above the top of the consolidation region. All of that spells recovery to me on Thursday.

However, since the market has been so volatile recently (all year, really), I am frequently wrong.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,699.89    
 Weekly S2  4,706.33  6.44   
 Monthly S1  4,790.06  83.73   
 Weekly S1  4,793.28  3.22   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Daily S2  4,819.68  26.40   
 Low  4,844.39  24.71   
 Daily S1  4,849.95  5.56   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,865.40  15.44   
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,871.88  6.49   
 Daily Pivot  4,874.67  2.78   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,878.37  3.71   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  4,880.23  1.86   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  4,894.36  14.13   
 High  4,899.38  5.02   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  4,904.94  5.56   
 Weekly Pivot  4,912.88  7.94   
 Monthly Pivot  4,916.10  3.22   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R2  4,929.66  13.56   
 Weekly R1  4,999.83  70.17   
 Monthly R1  5,006.27  6.44   
 Weekly R2  5,119.43  113.16   
 Monthly R2  5,132.31  12.88   

Wednesday 4/1/15. CPI: Symmetrical Triangle

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This is a pattern I haven't seen in the chart pattern indicator since January. I show it outlined in red. What pattern is it?

Answer: A symmetrical triangle. The breakout from triangles are notoriously hard to predict.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

Notice the red bar on the Tuesday's trading (the red bar on the far right). I think this is a fake signal. I expect the index to recover and to see the red bar disappear.

I could be wrong, of course.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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